Blue Jays mail bag

Every Wednesday, baseball columnist Richard Griffin answers your Blue Jays questions. Click here to submit a question.

NOTE: Before we move on to this week’s mailbag, just an overnight note from the Olympic qualifiers in Taipei, where Team Canada late last night moved its record to 4-1 with an 11-0 win over Spain. Sorry, Jose Calderon. Arriba, Canada!

Q-So after seeing Vernon Wells a little bit, should the fans expect a return to form for Vernon, or a repeat of last year?

Jon Kruithof, Hamilton, ON

A: I believe this will be a bounce-back year for Vernon in '08, following the surgery to repair damage to his left shoulder. No matter how much he denies it (which is admirable) a wonky left shoulder was surely a part of his hitting woes a year ago. However, I do feel that Alex Rios is now a bigger offensive weapon than Vernon and should take over the three-hole in the batting order, dropping Wells to four or five. Good numbers for Vernon this year would be a .285 average, 40 doubles, 28 homers, 110 RBIs and 55 walks. In addition to that, he is one of the top three defenders in centre field in all of baseball.

Q: Richard,

We hear about the "clubhouse atmosphere" a lot - that it is good or bad. It seems that this year the Jays clubhouse should be good. Can you estimate how many extra wins that translates into - if any, and give your opinion on the importance of it.

Jim Anderson, Cambridge

A: Clubhouse atmosphere is one of those things that is hard to quantify in terms of translating into wins and losses. Over the course of six months and 162 regular season games, these guys spend a lot of time forced into sharing the same airspace. They show up four hours before a game and leave an hour after – that’s 1,458 hours. There are about 56 travel days with team flights and buses all jammed together, averaging six hours per excursion – that’s about 336 hours. There is spring training, with another 45 days of putting up with each other’s quirks and smells in closed quarters.

When a major-league clubhouse atmosphere is good, it starts with the veterans. They smile, they joke, they prepare, they share, and they care about each other’s failures and successes. It doesn’t necessarily create more success for the team, but it tends to sweep the stench of failure out the door more quickly and effectively allows failed players to focus on regaining their success the next day.

There is a clear perception, even from outsiders like the media that cover the team daily, that these guys like each other and like being around each other. That attitude trickles down to younger players and they feel more comfortable and accepted as part of a travelling family. When they age and become veteran players, they pass the attitude on to the younger players and the “clubhouse” cycle continues. Atmosphere won’t make bad players good and a losing atmosphere will always win out. However, the catch here is that if you already have bad players and a bad team, you likely didn’t have veteran players with the good vibe anyway. Just look at it this way. If it seems much more pleasant for outsiders like the media on the beat to walk into a major-league clubhouse with good atmosphere, imagine how good it must be for the players. I believe that “clubhouse atmosphere” is important not for winning x-number of games, but more for avoiding x-number of losses – and fistfights.

Q: Richard,

I continue to be amazed by the notion that the Jays might make Casey Janssen the fifth starter. It seems as if John Gibbons wants him in the 'pen and he certainly has excelled in that role so far. Having each been given more than half a season as a starter, I feel that Jesse Litsch has out-performed Janssen in that role.

With Gibby's propensity for overusing the 'pen, wouldn't it be wise to overload on late-inning arms, even if B.J. Ryan is healthy? I think Ryan, Janssen, Jeremy Accardo, Brandon League, Scott Downs et al will help us win a lot of games and the depth will help assure that Gibbons doesn't overuse any one of them too much (I hope). Is J.P. trying to get Janssen in the rotation because he's one of his guys? Do you honestly see him as a pitcher who could log 200 innings and be effective? I don't.

Chris Parkes Toronto

A: It is an amazing notion, isn’t it? J.P. and his men should pay attention to the famous Peter Principle wherein you continue promoting people until you find their level of incompetence.

Not to say that Janssen is an incompetent as a starter, but even the pitching coach is saying that this guy’s repertoire is more effective in the long relief and setup role at which he did so well in ’07. Of course, this whole project is on hold since Janssen removed himself from action the other day just before he was scheduled to pitch at the minor-league complex. He has shoulder issues; so stretching him out in time for opening day now seems a long shot.

But I’m with you in that there is absolutely nothing wrong with having depth in the bullpen. If starters average six innings per start, which is about right in this day and age, that give you about 500 innings left over in relief. When Ryan returns to full health that would give the Jays a nice package of strong arms in the middle – including Janssen. Having a lefty closer even makes all the right-handers more effective because you won’t have as many left-handed pinch-hitters entering in the 6th-8th innings, knowing they might have to face the lefty B.J. in the ninth. Since the most innings Janssen has pitched in any one season is 149, it’s hard to make the leap and see him as an effective 200-innings per year starter. When he returns to health, return him to the ‘pen.

Q: Hi Richard,

Thanks for all the work you and your colleagues do to bring us the daily updates on our Jays. I have one question. Whenever a pitcher is going through the rehab process, I always hear that they pitch simulated games. What does this process entail as I have a mental picture of pitchers throwing baseballs at a screen (much like a golf simulator).

Your insight is much appreciated.

Thanks!

A.J. Furfaro, Richmond Hill

A: A simulated game is one of the final steps of a rehab program. The injured pitcher usually begins with tossing from flat ground, starting short and then stretching it out to long toss (over twice the distance from plate to mound) with a coach in the outfield to stretch out dormant muscles. When he’s ready to get back on the mound, he does so with several bullpen sessions, which are supervised and timed to about 10 minutes, with a strict pitch count.

When it is deemed that he is ready to come back in a real game, he is usually assigned a simulated game. Usually the format is this. The “simulated game” is on the main diamond, with the batting cage in place at home plate. He pitches using all of his regular repertoire to a catcher calling pitches, but with real hitters standing in the batter’s box taking hacks. The hitters are usually players that have showed up early, but sometimes it can be the travelling secretary, or coaches, just someone to simulate game conditions for the injured hurler. After throwing 15-20 pitches, he goes to sit down in the dugout for five minutes before coming back out for another 15-20 pitches once again to hitters. This simulates innings in real games. After about three “innings” his day is over. Often, this is done just before the pitcher is sent out for a minor-league outing or two on a rehab option for which he continues to receive major-league service time.

Q: When the turf at Rogers Centre was re-done a few years back, the early reviews sounded good. Lately, I've questioned my memory. Troy Glaus made me wonder with his comments (also wondered, at third base, how much time did he really spend on the turf, anyway?). And reading blogs and such from around the league, I've seen it referred to as 'a parking lot', 'cement slab' and the like, all quite uncomplimentary. Having not ever set foot on it, I ask you, Richard: What's that turf really like?

Will Green, Toronto

A: Reading blogs from around the league is not good for accuracy concerning the Jays. As someone mentioned earlier, there is a perception that as Canadians we are all Neanderthals when it comes to appreciating and understanding baseball. They also fail to update their perceptions, but, hey, who cares? For instance, when the old turf was down, it was basically a carpet over concrete. That was a correct perception and it did not do well for anyone with sore knees or ankles. But since the change to the shaggy fake grass, the field has improved tremendously in both playability and physical wear and tear. Nobody hears the same complaints about the Metrodome and it’s the same turf. Glaus would have been aching playing third base on a Beauty Rest mattress. Still, I favour the natural stuff, but if you’re going to be fake, this is the best substitute.

Q: Where do you see our 'stud' pitching prospects, Ricky Romero and David Purcey, this year? The Majors, AAA, AA, DOA? These were once two guys who came with a tonne of fanfare, mostly generated by J.P., during the tight wallet years where all we had to look forward to was the depth in the minors. Were these guys ever really that good? Or was JP just blowing smoke till Uncle Ted forked over the cash to buy/bid 'stud' pitchers like A.J. Burnett, Ted Lilly, Gil Meche, and Matt Clement.

Marino F., Toronto

A: Very good line with that DOA. I am officially going to steal it later in the year.

I think Purcey has a better chance of contributing at the major-league level some time in ’08. He is just one pitch and an iota of mental toughness shy of being a major-leaguer. The first-round college lefty has had four pro seasons, but has yet to establish himself even at Triple-A.

Whereas lack of an effective changeup is holding Purcey back, it’s what has moved Romero forward. The finesse lefty who was drafted No. 6 overall in 2005 (too high) needs to step up this year. These guys were drafted when the Jays were still on a severe budget and may have been over-hyped. But they each have a chance to pitch in the bigs and it may be sooner rather than later if Burnett has a good year and opts out in ‘09.

Q: I have heard very little about the new hitting instructor Gary Denbo. Can you tell me a little bit about his approach? Have you seen any adjustments with the players so far in spring?

Brendan Kelly, Unadilla, Georgia

A: The Jays have replaced the laid back, happy to be here approach of former batting coach Mickey Brantley with a hands-on, video-driven, high-tech approach of Denbo. It’s a return to the same style as Mike Barnett, the man Brantley replaced. It’s hard to hand out kudos to Denbo this spring, considering the difficulties the Jays are having scoring runs and generating offence. It will take a while for the new guy to have an effect, but he works hard and is always available for extra duty, either video or field, with the hitters.

Q: Richard I have a question about baseball's luxury tax. Do the Blue Jays, Orioles and Rays get more of a percentage of money that the Yankees and Red Sox pay as a luxury tax or is it split evenly among all teams? It seems unfair if split evenly as we have to play those teams a lot more then say the Pirates.

Andrew Stevens, Burlington

A: The luxury tax contributed to by the Yankees and Red Sox for consciously overspending on payroll (there is no salary cap) is not split evenly among the other teams. For some reason, the Jays still get a minor share of it, although not as much as teams like the Royals, Pirates, Marlins and Rays. Toronto is the fifth largest metropolitan area in North America with a potential TV audience of 35 million people nationally, with a loonie that is worth more than the U.S. dollar. That’s a small to middle market? In baseball it is.

If the Jays got off to a huge start and swept through to the post-season, drawing over 3 million fans, the Yankees would be paying some of that payroll. Then you’d hear Hank Steinbrenner go off, making his father seem like Mr. Limpett.

Click here to send Richard a question, and he'll answer a selection in his mailbag Wednesdays in this space.

Comments

[Michael Fulton]

Now that Casey Janssen is officially done for the upcoming 08' season, what do you think should be there plan of action? As much as I like Litsch in the 5th spot, he doesn't give me the same assurance that Janssen would have. Litsch seems to be too much of a hit and miss pitcher to succeed to me.

Also, what are the Blue Jays plans for left field? The way that Lind and Coats are hitting this spring training, and given how poorly Reed and Shannon are batting, what do you think they should do? Personally, I think Lind has shown that he deserves to be a regular this year, with Coats waiting in the wings at AAA.

[Werner Ott]

Do you think any kind of trade is imminent - what with the surfeit of outfielders in the organization? Who would you think would go first...a hitting outfielder like Stewart, or a defensive guy like Johnson? Would they hang onto Lind at the expense of one of those two? Given a year or two, and the arrival of Mr. Snider, would Wells be on the block, as part of some kind of blockbuster?
I could see Rios, Snider and Lind as a decent outfield down the line.

[Rob]

I am planning on not missing next years spring training- I have been pining this March break not being able to get down there- where would you recommend staying for the week if all I want is some baseball, beer, beaches and anything else that starts with a "b"

[John Leeson]

"I believe that “clubhouse atmosphere” is important not for winning x-number of games, but more for avoiding x-number of losses..."

Is there a difference between winning and not losing?

Does a team aim each season to "not lose" as many games as it can? Will players now tell interviewers, "I'm just here to help my team not lose." Veteran players will be acquired with the GM's endorsement, "We got him because he's a proven non-loser".

[Dan]

Hey Richard,

Do you think the Blue Jays will keep both Reed Johnson and Shannon Stewart, but cut Marco Scutaro? This seems like an interesting solution.

[Desmond Bouteiller]

Hi Richard,

I'm a huge fan of the mailbag, and I am also a huge fan of "What if" scenarios. I'm curious to find out what your comments would be, had J.P. been successful in signing both Gil Meche, and Ted Lilly prior to last year? Halladay, Burnett, Lilly, Meche, and McGowan would be a pretty deadly one through five don't you think? Would that also mean that the Jays wouldn't have the coin to ink Vernon to his long term deal, and we would be looking at an outfield without #10? I think that I could live with Rios in center and Stairs/Stewart/Johnson/Lind making up the corner spots. Thanks.

Desmond Bouteiller
Red Deer, Alberta

[Pearson Crigger]

Why are the Blue Jays keeping Frank Thomas.He is off to another slow start this spring and he only had a few good weeks last year near the end of the year when the games where meaningless.I think his being on the team is a real letdown to the guys.He cant run take the extra base or even work the count for a walk when he needs to get on base.Im sure there is someone in the Jays organization that can handle his role ie MATT STAIRS.What do you think about this situation

[Rory Wilson]

Hello Richard,

I have just read that the Jays have cut Reed Johnson in favour of Shannon Stewart. Is it just me or does this seem ridiculously stupid? Who is going to play defence in left field? Or frankly, in center or right should Wells/Rios go down or need a day off? I would say Stewart is a marginal offensive upgrade over Johnson (potentially not so - two years ago Johnson was one of the best leadoff hitters in the majors) and huge downgrade on defence/baserunning/versatility/etc. Since it was going to be a platoon anyways with Stairs, the "hitting" will only come into play very infrequently (how many extra hits will Stewart get vs Johnson considering he will play once every 5 days?), while you could use Johnson's defence every game. Is this purely to save the roughly $2 million or what is Ricciardi thinking? If it is to save the $2 million, why did waste all that money tossing minor league contracts to roughly a dozen relief pitchers when that area is already a strong point? I know minor league contracts don't add up to much, but they would eat into that $2 million that would be a huge benefit.

With all the young pitchers on the staff, you would think some defence would be a priority so there would be less bobbled balls at shortstop, and less noodle-armed grandma soft tosses to home failing to throw out even David Ortiz on a shallow fly ball to left to rattle them.

I have been an absolute diehard Jays fan for my whole life (seriously) but the way Ricciardi is running this team... I won't even finish that thought.

This has just turned into an anti-Ricciardi rant instead of a question, so, getting back to it, what are your thoughts on this transaction?

Thanks!

[Neil Kouba]

What's the most number of "Home Opener" games a major league team has played in one season? (Their home opener plus any home openers where they're the visitors)

Thanks,

Neil

[K. Connolly]

Richard,

I guess the Jays don't lose a lot auditioning retreads in left while a) there's roster flexibility with two shortstops down, and b) no one except Vernon seems interested in hitting the longball (well Rios is Interested, he's just letting it screw up his swing)

But wouldn't Kenny Lofton make a whole lot more sense than these two fellas? Great leadoff guy, good speed, decent d (though weak throwing).

Stewart seemed like he was just getting his swing back last week, and surely the Jays understand he won't be hitting .220 at the end of the year. As per your column this morning, I don't get it. Pick a fricking line-up and run them out there until they figure it out. It's the only way out of a hittting slump I've ever seen work.

Or fire the damn hitting coach. What was wrong with Brantley anyway?