Halladay in heat
10:43 - Several posts ago, I mused aloud about Roy Halladay and his dislike of hot weather. I wondered to myself, and to you, about whether this had historically been a weakness of Halladay's.
Well, sound the horns, we have our first flash piece of sabermetric analysis here at the Star Baseball Blog. Not that I'm capable of doing anything like this. I'm still confused about the difference between Battlestar Galactica Seasons 2.0 and 2.5.
No, no, one of our thousands and thousands of loyal readers leapt to the challenge. Rob Pettapiece.
Rob first sent me a short note, claiming to have done the math. I think it's worth quoting him at length here.
"Using (Halladay's) starts from 2002 to 2007, there is no correlation between the game-time temperature and Halladay's Game Score (Bill James' metric to assess pitching performance - C.K.). Since hitters are usually more dangerous in the heat, this may mean that Halladay is actually 'better' when it's warm out."
Then Rob got shy about the numbers, and I smelled a rat. I demanded - DEMANDED - the numbers. He happily sent them along. I opened them up and suddenly the colour green looked like red to me. Here was a man, Rob Pettapiece, making FIGURES equal ANSWERS! I'm still a bit confused by the things you can do with stats, besides manipulate for your own nefarious ends if you are a mortgage broker. Rob wins, I lose. Halladay can do it all in any weather.
Tonight, assuming the Dome is once again closed, Halladay will have to struggle through in room temperature. Oh man, where's that April heat wave when we need one?
Here, by the way, are Rob's labours. And I will take my tongue out of my cheek long enough to thank him profusely for taking the time and effort. After all, somebody has to supply you people with real insights.
Here's Rob's graphic representation of 173 Halladay starts from April 4, 2002 to Sept. 26, 2007.
|SOURCE: ROB PETTAPIECE|
On the vertical axis, we have the game score, from a low of 6 on June 5, 2007 in 68 F temps to a high of 93 on May 29, 2005. During that best start, Halladay blanked the Minnesota Twins, allowing two hits, striking out 10 and walking no one. The game time temp was also 68 F, under a closed Dome.
And here are Rob's summary, showing negligble difference in a Halladay start even if he is sweating buckets up there:
Awesome. I feel so Einstein-y. Or maybe Igor-y to Rob's Einstein. Either way, take that, puny subjective analysis!