Blue Jays mail bag

The Jays are struggling seriously on this road trip after leaving home with a 10-10 record and because of that there seems to be a common thread of fan frustration running through this week's mailbag. Going into the season, it didn’t seem that the lame-duck status of manager John Gibbons would be that much of an issue, but after just one failed month, the fact that Gibby is not contracted beyond ’08 seems to make his dismissal inevitable. The question is when, where and if it happens, will, or should, the GM be far behind? On to your questions.

Q: Dear Richard,

Have you seen the clip of Reed Johnson's catch in Chicago this past Friday? Can you please remind me why we let this guy go for Shannon Stewart? As well, I see that Frank Thomas just knocked in a pair of RBIs in his first game back with (the A’s). What was the urgent circumstance that led to his alienation and dismissal? I look at how the Jays have treated Thomas/Johnson and I can't help but associate those moves with the marginalizing of John McDonald and the departures of Ted Lilly and Shea Hillenbrand. When is the other shoe going to drop on management? Will it fall in the clubhouse first? I'm watching this team and it looks as though they have completely tuned out Gibbons and by extension, J.P. Am I overreacting?

Mike Paris, Halifax

A: The Jays have made two major personnel decisions since the start of spring training, both based on salary rather than talent. Results never seem to turn out well when that happens. Johnson was making too much money because of an arbitration system that dictated where eligible guys slot in with years of service and performance. Thomas was making too much money because the Jays threw it at him.

The problem was compounded by the fact that the general manager has never been the most socially graceful and gracious when it comes to dealing with exes. Usually, before the door has hit the departing player in the ass, the Jays are bobbing and weaving in the attempt to control the team’s image. That never works either, because the remaining teammates can see what’s happening.

Reed Johnson could see the writing on the wall as soon as Shannon Stewart was signed. Frank Thomas may be well past his prime, but the Jays removed him from the lineup partly to make sure that he didn’t get the required at-bats to reach his vesting option of $10 million for ’09. As for John McDonald, he was praised to the skies when he signed his two-year deal, but is now buried at the end of the bench even though his skills could have been useful in an injury-plagued first three weeks. Shea Hillenbrand was just looking for a little love after becoming a father. Ted Lilly…well Ted Lilly was a bit of a strange cat and in the long run, having him sign elsewhere was a good thing for the Jays' rotation. The Jays are very heavy-handed as employers of young millionaires with issues.

No cheering in the press box ...

... At least, that's the rule.

But after watching Roy Halladay dazzle again and the Blue Jays offence fizzle in likewise fashion, it was hard to not to hang one's media credentialled head for a moment.

Dustin Pedroia - "Superman" as Vernon Wells later called him - robbed the Jays centrefielder of the game's first RBI in the ninth. Then the familiar duo of Ortiz and Ramirez got to Halladay with two out. Kevin Youkilis hit the dagger single. Wells, moving quickly from the penthouse to the rubbish bin out back, bobbled the ball. Ortiz, running hard, but hardly running from second, arrived home with the winning run and a bad case of mountaineer's lung.

For a while there, it looked like the only two Jays on the field were Halladay and David Eckstein. The Toronto shortstop fielded 10 groundballs for outs, three off the club record for assists in a game. Unfortunately, it looked like that on the offensive side of the ball as well. Toronto could only manage one hit - a single - off Boston starter Jon Lester.

Halladay has now pitched four consecutive complete games. That's three more than anyone else in the majors. And his record is 2-4. I'm sure the losses in Orlando and Kansas City all hurt. I wasn't there for them. But this one tonight looked like a gut buster in the Toronto dressing room.

Dustin McGowan will have his work cut out tomorrow trying to rally this crew.

Cathal Kelly

Sun Ra-Ra

6:20 p.m. - Right now, in drizzly Boston, it's 7 C - perfect Roy Halladay weather. That is, until Rob Pettapiece and his amazing math skills imploded my theory that Toronto's staff ace pitches better in the cold.

However, I recently received an email from Jonathan Hale, the man behind the estimable Jays blog, the Mockingbird. Hale is the Toronto baseball community's sabermetrician emeritus. After lightly teasing me about turning to the dark side - numbers - he offered his take on Rob's analysis. I've asked Jonathan's permission to quote verbatim from his missive. Here it is:

"While I'm sure (Rob's) numbers are right, I'm not sure about the conclusion. While it may be negligible, a "negative" correlation, and certainly that graph, seems to indicate that as the temperature goes up, Halladay's game score goes down. An average swing of 10 in game score from very cold to very hot weather as shown in the final table is surely significant.

As Rob points out, that could be because hitters are more dangerous in the heat (I'm going to generously assume as evidence he has my seminal work on pitcher effectiveness vs. temperature at Baseball Digest Daily in mind). So the real question is does Roy Halladay hate warm weather any more than your average pitcher? I have neither the foggiest idea or the will to crunch those particular numbers, but I can tell you a few things that really jump out about his performance using my own personal nerd tool, the pitch-tracking system installed at the parks known as pitch f/x:

1) His sinker sinks less and less as the temperature rises.
2) He throws more strikes.

I know this was just an idle pondering thought that you're not looking for a dissertation on...just thought it was an interesting question you left open and I'd add another angle. Next time just say something rash based on a half dozen of the Doc's games that you can remember, and both me and Rob will leave you alone. :)

Cheers,
Jonathan Hale"

Jonathan included funky graphics to support his conclusions, but I have neither the ability nor the access to experts (at 6:30 on Tuesday) that is required to show them to you. If you're going to start crying about the evidence, therefore, blame me. (BLOGGER'S NOTE: No need to cry. Jonathan has posted them here.)

Well, we may get a sense tonight, with Halladay throwing in temperatures that should hover just above freezing. Thank the baseball Gods for the closed pressbox at Fenway, the park's only architectural concession to the 20th century.

Cheers back at ya, Jonathan. Thanks for weighing in. And thanks to both you and Rob for adding a gravitas to my writing that's normally found through the use of a thesaurus. I've used 'gravitas' right, right?

Cathal: Any pre-game words for the blog, Griff?

Griff: No.

Cathal: Seriously?

Griff: Seriously.

Cathal: That's bloggable. The 'toad' thing? Not so much.

Cathal Kelly

Rolen's coming back

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. – Okay, this looks like a more reasonable lineup than the one 24 hours earlier - the one that had all three catchers in there,  Robinzon Diaz going 0-for-4 in his major-league debut, and also minus Alex Rios (flu) and Lyle Overbay (ankle) taking a sit.

To wit:

SS David Eckstein
2B Aaron Hill
RF Alex Rios
CF Vernon Wells
DH Matt Stairs
LF Shannon Stewart
1B Lyle Overbay
C Gregg Zaun
3B Marco Scutaro

It’ll get even more normal looking tomorrow night in Kansas City, when Scott Rolen makes his debut as a Blue Jay – as an American Leaguer, in fact.

The big guy turned up in the Jays’ clubhouse about three hours before the series finale against the Rays in Disney World.

His much-awaited (much-needed) return comes 33 days – same as his jersey number – since taking that freak liner off the tip of his right middle finger during spring fielding practice. That’s a little over the mid-point of the original recovery prognosis of four-to-six weeks.

“There’s probably always a little more recovery time you can give it but I’ve convinced myself it’s time to play,” he said.

“I still have a pretty significant bone bruise on the end of (the finger). I feel it when I throw, I feel it when I hit, but I think my options were to sit and wait for it to heal or go out and play.”

Rolen also jokingly suggested the Class-A Dunedin Blue Jays would be better off without him. "An 0-for-9 with an error and the (scorer) could’ve given be two that inning," he said.

“It was a pretty exciting rehab stint, actually. “I’m thinking if they’re in a Florida State League pennant race, they were happy to see me go. I was killing them.”  .

Any chance Rolen might’ve got himself inserted in the lineup for tonight’s series finale? Nope. At least that’s the idea.

“I think the plan is to take some BP (last night), get some ground-balls, watch a game, settle in a little bit,” Rolen said. “Not that I couldn’t go but, just the fact that I’ve played the last five, six days … well, I’m a little sore.”

Rolen also gets to make his debut in his favourite park – at least, stats-wise. During those annual  Cardinals/Royals  interleague games over the years, he’s a career .436 hitter at Kauffman Stadium (17-for-39), with three homers and a dozen RBIs.

Not official yet, but, in the post-game roster move to accommodate Rolen, Jays seemed likely to return catcher Diaz to Triple-A Syracuse.

Into last night, the Tampa Rays were an all-time 5-0 at Disney’s Wide World of Sports, having swept the Texas Rangers here last May. In the five games, they’ve hit .346 and scored almost seven runs a game (34).

Just heard the new Tampa ballpark back in St. Pete – scheduled to open in 2012 – is nowhere near a sure thing. City citizens have a referendum on the matter in November and early polls suggest they’re very opposed to letting the Rays build on prime waterfront land. Which is why, the suggestion continues, is the team is going to continue fostering this relationship with the Disney folks in Orlando.

Allan Ryan

Blue Jays mail bag

The Big Hurt is gone and life in Jay-Land goes on. But what’s up with Alex Rios? The Jays fly from Texas to Baltimore and he gets the day off. The Jays fly from T-O to Orlando and he gets the day off. Is this a clause in his new contract? The Jays lost both those games and the final one vs. Detroit with Vernon Wells getting the day off. It seems Cal Ripken has nothing to worry about from any Blue Jay. To the mailbag, Batman.

Q: Hi Richard.

Let the pessimistic side of me come out early, will you? If the Jays find themselves mired in mediocrity again this year and so far, I see no reason why they won’t, I am curious, with A.J. Burnett’s opt out, will the Jays try and shop the right hander before the July 31st trading deadline. I vision the New York Mets being a great destination for him. Thoughts?

Bob van Rees, Guelph

A: As is the usual modus operandi of J.P. Ricciardi, he will always answer his phone and listen to discussions for any player as the trade deadline approaches, but does that constitute “shopping a player”? The problem for the Jays would be that by trading Burnett for futures in July, J.P. would be admitting his ’08 season is a failure and would be basically signing his own pink slip, since he promised Ted Rogers a contender this year.

Any team that wishes to trade for A.J. during the season is going to have to sweeten the pot for the remaining two years of his contract (2009-10) that currently calls for $12 million per season. The new team – if they want to hold onto him – would also have to include an extension, so it would basically be a free-agent situation with his contract. Remember, his opt out clause after ’08 would be carried over to his new team.

Of course, the way the market for free-agent starting pitchers has gone recently, even the Jays, his current team, will likely have to sweeten his deal in October to keep him. Are they willing to do that? Not likely, which means they will, indeed, be willing to trade Burnett in July for the right package but won’t feel compelled to. If he declares free agency in November and goes elsewhere, the Jays get a draft choice, which is not the end of the world, plus they would have $12 million to spend elsewhere which gives them some flexibility. As for suitors, the Mets are always in the mix.

Q: Putting on your G.M. hat - contracts and major league experience aside (based on ability, not just “when their stuff is on”) - if you could choose between A.J. Burnett, Shaun Marcum and Jesse Litsch and could only have one of three in your rotation, whom would it be? This one really puts the overly used word “potential” into play.

Kris Duffin, Toronto

Forget Disney World ...

LAKE BUENA VISTA, Fla. – Okay, Disney World, if you will, Champion Stadium, spring home for the Atlanta Braves, about 30 klicks from downtown Orlando.

And where the Jays take on the Rays these next three nights beginning, like, 15 minutes ago. Having a problem realizing these games count – not just some extended spring thing.

Place seats about 7,500 with room for another 2,000 or so on a wee hillside beyond the fence in right. Whole idea, as far as the Rays are concerned is to better regionalize their brand throughout the state.

Rays decided they’d better try something a couple of years back when online ticket purchases and assorted surveys revealed their top six cities, in terms of fans making it to Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg were, in order, St. Pete, Tampa, Clearwater, Sarasota – then Boston and New York. No way, the Rays figured, should Boston and New York be outdrawing Orlando – about 150 km east of Tampa. So the Rays played the Texas Rangers three games here last May. And, while hardly just because of that, Orlando’s now No. 5 on the Rays’ list.

Something the Jays might want to know:  The Rays swept the Rangers a year ago. …. 

Just prior to game-time, Rays announced they’d dealt minor-league right-hander Josh Butler to the Brewers for outfielder Gabe Gross, Jays’ first-round pick from 2001. Gross just happened to have had two hits and scored the winning run in a Brewer win over the Cardinals in Milwaukee Tuesday afternoon, but he was not expected to try matching Joel Youngblood’s record of getting a hit for two different teams in two different cities on the same day. On Aug. 4, 1982, Youngblood had a hit for the Mets in a matinee at Wrigley, got traded to Montreal after the game, them made it to Philadelphia in time to get a hit for the Expos that night. The pitchers Youngblood put the tough on: Hall of Famers Fergy Jenkins and Steve Carlton.

First inning done with at 0-0 – Matt Stairs running his hit streak to 10 games with a single. Alex Rios getting the night off with Joe Inglett patrolling right. …. You’ve probably got this on the tube, right?

Mailbag: Frank Thomas edition

There were so many questions in the mailbag surrounding the release of Frank Thomas that we could not wait until Wednesday to answer them.

The regular Wednesday mailbag will be featured, but consider this a Big Hurt bonus bag. Some great questions.

Q. Hi Richard,
What are your thoughts on the release of Frank Thomas? If it’s about his $10 million option in ’09, then why the heck did they give it to him in the first place? Did they hope he would be injured enough in the first two seasons that he couldn’t reach 1,000 plate appearances? If so, why give him $9 million a year in ’07-’08? It seems like the wrong way to hedge a bet.

Ryan McCallen, Toronto

A. One of the ways that J.P. Ricciardi has always seemed to sweeten his free agent offers through the years to combat the disadvantage of luring players to Canada is by handing outrageous dollar figures on an option year, with no intention of ever picking it up (See Bengie Molina: ’06 contract of $3 million + $1.5 million bonus, plus an option year for $7.5 million which J.P. bought out for a half-million). Alex Rios has a $13.5 million club option in 2015. He may never see it. But the question is whether the method with the Big Hurt was a wrong way to hedge a bet. Consider that at the same time as the Jays gave Thomas his contract, they gave one to catcher Gregg Zaun with a vested option for ’09 that he had little or no chance of reaching (i.e. 270 games played in ’07-’08). They may have thought that with Thomas’s age and recent history of injuries that the $10 million for ’09 for 1,000 plate appearances in ’07-’08 was a safe bet. But when Hurt was healthy all year and came to bat 624 times in ’07, alarm bells were sounding. When he got off to as slow a start as the previous season but accompanied by others, it was a good time to cut him loose before he really approached his vesting numbers. He still needed 304 plate appearances when he was axed to leave. I don’t think that with artificial turf and with Frank’s history of bad feet that he would reach 1,000 plate appearances. You can’t disagree with the release, just some of the methods.

Halladay in heat

10:43 - Several posts ago, I mused aloud about Roy Halladay and his dislike of hot weather. I wondered to myself, and to you, about whether this had historically been a weakness of Halladay's.

Well, sound the horns, we have our first flash piece of sabermetric analysis here at the Star Baseball Blog. Not that I'm capable of doing anything like this. I'm still confused about the difference between Battlestar Galactica Seasons 2.0 and 2.5.

No, no, one of our thousands and thousands of loyal readers leapt to the challenge. Rob Pettapiece.

Rob first sent me a short note, claiming to have done the math. I think it's worth quoting him at length here.

"Using (Halladay's) starts from 2002 to 2007, there is no correlation between the game-time temperature and Halladay's Game Score (Bill James' metric to assess pitching performance - C.K.). Since hitters are usually more dangerous in the heat, this may mean that Halladay is actually 'better' when it's warm out."

Then Rob got shy about the numbers, and I smelled a rat. I demanded - DEMANDED - the numbers. He happily sent them along. I opened them up and suddenly the colour green looked like red to me. Here was a man, Rob Pettapiece, making FIGURES equal ANSWERS! I'm still a bit confused by the things you can do with stats, besides manipulate for your own nefarious ends if you are a mortgage broker. Rob wins, I lose. Halladay can do it all in any weather.

Tonight, assuming the Dome is once again closed, Halladay will have to struggle through in room temperature. Oh man, where's that April heat wave when we need one?

Here, by the way, are Rob's labours. And I will take my tongue out of my cheek long enough to thank him profusely for taking the time and effort. After all, somebody has to supply you people with real insights.

Here's Rob's graphic representation of 173 Halladay starts from April 4, 2002 to Sept. 26, 2007.

SOURCE: ROB PETTAPIECE

On the vertical axis, we have the game score, from a low of 6 on June 5, 2007 in 68 F temps to a high of 93 on May 29, 2005. During that best start, Halladay blanked the Minnesota Twins, allowing two hits, striking out 10 and walking no one. The game time temp was also 68 F, under a closed Dome.

And here are Rob's summary, showing negligble difference in a Halladay start even if he is sweating buckets up there:

Temperatures <50 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s Starts 2 11 49 78 24 9 Average GS 45.0 61.2 56.5 57.2 53.4 51.8 Overall GS Avg. 56.6 Correlation, temperature/GS -.0718

Awesome. I feel so Einstein-y. Or maybe Igor-y to Rob's Einstein. Either way, take that, puny subjective analysis!

Cathal Kelly

Blue Jays mail bag

I’m fired up about this baseball season. Today the postman only had to ring once. The AL East is proving to be as competitive as predicted, but how about those O’s. Who’d a thunk? Thus far, the pitchers the Jays seem to have the most trouble with are guys they’ve never seen before. That’s been the case forever. Concerns? How about the Big Hurt after his fast start and Jeremy Accardo? And don’t forget A.J. Burnett. Not surprising, readers seem to have those same thoughts. On to the mail bag.

Q: Who will it be next year as (Jays’) DH? Carlos Delgado, or Big Frank (Thomas)?

Bert Wilson, Georgetown, Ont.

A: It’s an interesting thought having Delgado back in a Jays uniform to end his career, but I think that window has been closed. If Carlos returned, this would no longer be his team, his clubhouse. That was part of his worth to the club. But watching him struggle with his health and his at-bats with the Mets makes you believe he doesn’t have much left in the tank.

As for the Big Hurt’s chances to be next year’s DH, every game, every at-bat brings him closer to a $10 million guaranteed contract for 2009, which would ensure that he would at least start next season as the DH. That may not be exactly what the Jays want or need at this point, but Thomas needed only 376 plate appearances heading into the season to have ’09 become guaranteed. The only option to clear him out would be to dangle his ’09 contract and pay about half of it to have him play elsewhere. But who would that be?

By next year, the Jays should be of a mindset that they would prefer to use DH as a resting spot for players like Matt Stairs, Scott Rolen, Adam Lind or Travis Snider when they are not playing the field. Remember how well it worked in ’05 with Shea Hillenbrand, Eric Hinske, Frank Catalanotto and others.

Q: My question is one regarding the third base situation in Toronto right now. Marco Scutaro has been seeing most of the time at third. I thought the reason that they were starting him over John McDonald was due to his better bat. His bat hasn't been anything special as of late, or all season, so the Jays let Joe Inglett start against Texas. My question is: Who? Joe Inglett? Have the Jays lost complete faith in John McDonald? It seems they'll trade spectacular defence and a fan favourite for ... Joe Inglett. Could you help explain the Jays decision to me?

Chris Poss, Brantford

Rolen returns

6:38 p.m. - Good vibes are contagious in the Jays clubhouse right now.

Today, there was general merriment when Scott Rolen walked in at about 3:30. He'd just come back from a check-up with the surgeon who operated on his crumpled finger, Dr. Thomas Graham.

I ran into Rolen in the tunnel underneath Camden Yards (after going the long way round when I was locked out of the Jays clubhouse. MacLeod, is there no depth you won't sink to?). I knew things were going okay when he immediately stuck out his hand to shake - that is, the hand with the broken finger.

Then I asked him what he was reading. "Still (Upton Sinclair's) The Jungle," he said. Good to know he's not wiling away his days in Florida on the couch.

Later, Rolen told us that he's ahead of schedule on his baseball activities. He's already throwing. He put on a uniform and took batting practice with the team a few minutes ago. But he's not fielding. And he's still on his original rehab schedule. So don't expect to see him until early May. More on this in tomorrow's paper.

But hey, as Aaron Hill cheekily said when he greeted Rolen, "We don't need you, bro. We just swept."

I should add that it is frickin' freezin' here in Baltimore. These people have the worst of both worlds - ice box in spring, steam bath in summer. If you ever again feel like complaining about Toronto weather, visit Baltimore in April or August. That'll learn you.

Cathal Kelly