Mailbag: Frank Thomas edition

There were so many questions in the mailbag surrounding the release of Frank Thomas that we could not wait until Wednesday to answer them.

The regular Wednesday mailbag will be featured, but consider this a Big Hurt bonus bag. Some great questions.

Q. Hi Richard,
What are your thoughts on the release of Frank Thomas? If it’s about his $10 million option in ’09, then why the heck did they give it to him in the first place? Did they hope he would be injured enough in the first two seasons that he couldn’t reach 1,000 plate appearances? If so, why give him $9 million a year in ’07-’08? It seems like the wrong way to hedge a bet.

Ryan McCallen, Toronto

A. One of the ways that J.P. Ricciardi has always seemed to sweeten his free agent offers through the years to combat the disadvantage of luring players to Canada is by handing outrageous dollar figures on an option year, with no intention of ever picking it up (See Bengie Molina: ’06 contract of $3 million + $1.5 million bonus, plus an option year for $7.5 million which J.P. bought out for a half-million). Alex Rios has a $13.5 million club option in 2015. He may never see it. But the question is whether the method with the Big Hurt was a wrong way to hedge a bet. Consider that at the same time as the Jays gave Thomas his contract, they gave one to catcher Gregg Zaun with a vested option for ’09 that he had little or no chance of reaching (i.e. 270 games played in ’07-’08). They may have thought that with Thomas’s age and recent history of injuries that the $10 million for ’09 for 1,000 plate appearances in ’07-’08 was a safe bet. But when Hurt was healthy all year and came to bat 624 times in ’07, alarm bells were sounding. When he got off to as slow a start as the previous season but accompanied by others, it was a good time to cut him loose before he really approached his vesting numbers. He still needed 304 plate appearances when he was axed to leave. I don’t think that with artificial turf and with Frank’s history of bad feet that he would reach 1,000 plate appearances. You can’t disagree with the release, just some of the methods.

Q. My question is: Why did Ricciardi ever think Thomas was a good idea? He prevented Troy Glaus from getting his 20-30 games as DH last year and took up a spot that we could have used to help a young player get some at-bats. There seems to be no long-range plan in place for Ricciardi — just sign whoever and hope you get lucky. I feel that Shannon Stewart is as poor a signing as Thomas was.
Don Cattani, Thunder Bay

A. At the time of the signing on Nov. 17, 2006, three days into the free agency period of signing other team’s guys, there were a couple of questions that reflected in the writings at that time. Why Thomas? Who was J.P. bidding against? Are they going to win in ’07? The answers are tough to understand. We assume Thomas was signed because he is one of the top on-base percentage guys in history and because he resurrected his career with the beloved Oakland A’s. As for who else was bidding, Thomas on Opening Day in New York estimated that there were “five or 10 teams making offers.” We will find out by the speed at which Frank signs his next contract considering that the price is much lower, since his $8 million from the Jays is guaranteed. Oh, the Jays will save $390,000, the major-league minimum when he signs his next deal. The Shannon Stewart deal was so that they could release or trade Reed Johnson and creep back under the $100 million team payroll. Adam Lind is the only younger player ready to help and when they signed Thomas, they weren’t even sure if he would be ready in ’07 … which he was.

Q. Long time reader, first time asker. I completely agree with the decision to let Frank Thomas go, but a DH combination of Scutaro and Barajas is not going to get the Jays into the postseason. How long before Adam Lind gets a shot at being the everyday DH? Also, wouldn’t slotting Aaron Hill in the five-hole allow Wells to see some better pitches?
Matt Lewis, Ottawa

A. Good call on Scutaro and Barajas, but Scutaro was never in the DH plans, while Barajas is only there as a right-handed platoon until Adam Lind’s neck gets better. Apparently Lind slept on it wrong a few nights ago, probably getting whiplash from dreaming of playing left field with Josh Towers on the mound. In any case, once Lind arrives he will play left field with Matt Stairs as DH and Robinson Diaz or Joe Inglett being returned to the minors. Shannon Stewart can then play some left field and some DH, with Barajas returning to catching along with Zaun.

Q. Hello Richard, Goodbye Frank Thomas and hello Barry Bonds? It’s hard to see him fit into a Jays lineup, but his name has been popping up recently. If winning this year is the number one priority and management is on a short leash, would the Jays ever consider signing the ’roids king? Thanks for answering!
Dave Raiken, London, Ont.

A. Barry Bonds? You have got to be kidding. Just what we need, a huge barcalounger in the clubhouse in front of Barry’s locker, his own Plasma HD-TV, personal lackeys running around the clubhouse and IRS and DEA agents behind every pillar. Can he get a work permit for Canada if he is being investigated by a grand jury. Just what the Jays need. A guy that walks every time there are runners in scoring position, leaving it up to the other guys that have been failing with runners in scoring position. The Jays will not do that. They want to keep the payroll under $100 million. Besides, the Giants averaged 73 wins per year the last three seasons with a younger Bonds in their lineup.

Q. Hi Richard. I really hope you can answer this question and, as of April 20 I’m sure you’ve received a ton of question regarding Thomas and his replacement. Just to quote your article: "There is a bigger picture here for the Jays. ... This is a pivotal year. The Jays must compete for the wild card or GM J.P. Ricciardi and Gibbons will likely both be out of jobs." I’m hoping you have an inside scoop on this and I want to know if it’s that pivotal for the Jays as the organization states, Adam Lind should NOT be the solution in my opinion. Would they trade for a big bat? I was thinking J.D. Drew (a lefty and who’s being shopped around) perfect for the fifth spot.
Kam Hooshmand, Richmond Hill

A. J.D. Drew is not a big bat. He is not perfect for the fifth spot. This is a huge year for Ricciardi and therefore Gibbons. Consider that nobody has even thought of giving Gibbons an extension. Ricciardi believed in ’07 that he had a team that was good enough to compete. Then all the injuries. He saved his own job by convincing Ted Rogers and Co. to give him another chance to prove his point. The only tweaks he made were David Eckstein and Scott Rolen, both good moves. He has no excuses. This pitching staff should be good enough to carry them to 90-95 wins. If not, J.P. and Gibby will be looking for jobs. As for Lind, he is the man to play left for now. They have Matt Stairs for one more year after this and then Travis Snider will be in the mix. Signing somebody else’s overpaid stiff to a longterm deal is in nobody’s best interest except the stiff.

Q. As the Jays have released Frank Thomas it raises a question about DH expectations. In your experience, would an aging DH running a hitless streak start hitting again? More generally, do hitters run in cycles of hot and cold or should a team expect a minimum level of consistency from the DH, such as clutch hitting, despite a lower batting average? Dave Winfield and Paul Molitor had great seasons with the Blue Jays, but I can’t recall if they started cold and ended hot.
Frederick Duquette, Edmonton

A. DH expectations are one-dimensional. The only way you can help your team as a DH is by reaching base and driving in runs. If you are a centre fielder like Wells or a shortstop like Eckstein you can win games with your defence if you are in a slump. Your aging, slumping DH is out there basically butt-naked. Five chances per night to help and that’s it. Molitor in ’93 hit .292 in April and .374 in May. Winfield a year earlier hit .375 in April, .223 in May and .316 in June. No problem staying with either guy. Most good hitters in their prime will level out at similar numbers to what they have done their entire careers. It’s a consistent pattern over the years. But once the talent, the timing, the reflexes, the hand-eye start to go, it can be quick and alarming.

Q. Hi Richard, I personally don’t think the Jays are treating Thomas as a Hall-of-Famer should be treated. During the ’80s and early ’90s I was proud to be a Blue Jays fan. Not only because they put together competitive teams, but also because I thought they treated their players in a classy manner, especially during the days of (Paul) Beeston, but also during the Gord Ash era. The Ricciardi regime often makes me feel ashamed of the organization, though I remain a fan. What are your thoughts on this? Do I have a faulty memory? Thanks very much!
Rory Wilson, Halifax

A. There is no doubt that in the early days of the Jays, they treated their players like a family unit. They learned that what they had to do to compete from the Expos example under John McHale because of the disadvantage of playing in what many players considered a foreign land — which of course it technically is. Unfortunately much of the little detail work that the Jays did for their players back in the day the players don’t need any more because of the amount of money they are making and the fact of having mega-agents who assign case workers to hold their hands. J.P. is certainly not a people-person in the sense of Beeston or Ash, but as for Frank Thomas, he is a Hall-of-Famer but it’s not his fault that the Jays overpaid him. It is his fault for not understanding the reality that the $10 million vesting option for ’09 was a factor in his being yanked from the lineup, leading to his release.

Q. Richard, any chance the Jays bring Rolen up to DH until he can man 3B again? Martin L., Mississauga

A. It’s a catch-33. His true value to the Jays is as a hitter and a defender. He can hit in the majors, but until he can defend, he won’t be the player they need him to be. If he’s only hitting, when will they find out about his defence? Therefore, he needs to play in the minors until they see that his finger is not bothering him at bat or in the field. He’ll be back soon.

Richard Griffin

Comments

[Ken Sanders]

The timing of the release of Frank Thomas is what I find unusual, why do this now? Should they have made this move earlier they could have kept Reed Johnson, and created a three way platoon situation with Stewart and Stairs sharing DH and an outfield position. The Thomas signing was a mistake to begin with and the money they paid him should cost Riccardi his job. When we are trying to compete with the Yanks and Red Sox we can't afford a $9 million mistake.

[Remi]

I have no faith in Ricciardi.He should be fired before he screws up the Blue Jays.The Blue Jays haven't been that good since Ricciardi was appointed general manager.They will be like the Maple Leafs,they won't even make the playoffs so they have to get rid of Ricciardi.He doesn't even live in Toronto during the baseball season.I have no respect for him.The Blue Jays won't have a good season.He should not have got rid of Thomas.

[Randy AJ]

I don't have a big problem with the Jays releasing Thomas, but I do have a big problem with Ricciardi pretending it didn't have anything to do with money. What's wrong with saying "A guy hitting under .200 doesn't deserve to eat up $10 million of our very limited money next season, so we made the difficult decision to let him go"? Obviously money played the central role and deservedly so. $10 million for an inconsistent, slow-starting 40 year old is a bad investment. Why gloss over the truth and claim it was unrelated? Geez I find Ricciardi irritating!!

[Harry Lees]

Hi Richard,
Now that Frank Thomas is out of the picture and Matt Stairs is now the everyday DH what should the jays do as far as left field goes? Should they stick with Shannon Stewart and Marco Scutaro? Or should they go with Buck Coats? Kenny Lofton might be a good pick-up. A good veteran who hits for average and could steal a couple bases. Please give me your thoughts on the situatuon.

[Nathaniel E.]

I understand the deal was to save money in '09, but the idea of dropping a guy who is owed 8 million and can still contribute (wasn't he one of the best hitters on the team last year) is slightly confusing.

1) As a matter of money, don't you still get more value by allowing his option to vest for '09? Worst case, you have Frank Thomas on your team for 2 years, at the overall price of 18 million. Instead the jays don't get anything and are being charged 8 million. Whoever the 10 million gets spent on next year will have to have one hell of a year to make up for the lost value.

2) Doesn't Thomas have a history of poor starts? Wouldn't it have made sense to keep him around and then attempt a trade to a team looking to upgrade later in the season down the stretch (and even offer to pay part of his salary)? At least this way, you keep his production in the lineup for a longer period of time, you'll know whether you're still in the hunt and thus whether his bat really is expendable, and at the end of the day, you can probably still get away with being on the hook for 8 million at most.

I understand that being an armchair GM is easier than the job JP has, but some of the moves they make defy reason.

[pj smith]

Hi Richard,

thanks for reading, long time reader. i have 2 questions,
first of all, where do you think Rolen should bat in the lineup when he returns?
Secondly, i'm concerned about Accardo and his lack of effectiveness so far, and in fact the pen in general. Nobody questions the quality of the rotation, but we seem to be slipping into a habit at the moment (Doc excepted) of starters only managing to go 5 innings or thereabouts, and struggling with high pitch counts, i'm thinking in particular of the Oakland series, but also several times since. Without Janssen we cannot possibly hope to compete if this trend continues, can we?
Thanks
J.P.

[tommy]

hello Richard,
long time reader first time asker, if a pitcher can pitch Left handed side and Right handed side, can that pitcher switch and pitch any side they like while on the mound? (1st pitch with the left hand, 2nd pitch with the right hand?)

On the other hand, how about the hitter? Can a switch hitter change their batting position while in the box (left handed box for 1st pitch, right handed box for the 2nd pitch)?
thanks

[doug]

J.P. has kept his job as the next in command is Godfrey and all he is interested in is the bottom-line...thats why Gillick still lives in the Toronto vicinity but will have nothing to do with the Jays, or Beeston Godfrey doesn't pressure J.P., who in turn doesn't queation Gibby..I hope the Jays tank just to get rid of J.P....two most pressing questions....how do J.P. and Caskman both keep tehre jobs thet moust be amazing bullshitters....as J.P's 5 year plan is now in teh what 7th year and yes I agree he is classless....he embarasses me..

[PFHLai]

Hi, Richard. How can the signing of Ken Dayley in November 1990 not be one of the five worst free agents signed by the Jays? Only 5 innings pitched over three years! Frank Thomas was a bad signing, but there are worse. My five worst cases are: Erik Hanson, Ken Dayley, Randy Myers, Frank Thomas and Tanyon Sturtze.

BTW, with Frank Thomas gone, can we expect Eckstein as the DH leading off some games with MacDonald playing more SS? This might be a way to get MacDonald and his glove more playing time without losing Eckstein as a spark plug in the lineup.

[Joe Smith]

How does Frank Thomas make your list of worst free agents and not Jack Morris (your article, not your mailbag)?

Don't forget, Jack was the highest paid pitcher in baseball when we signed him - sort of like if we signed the Hurt for $40+ million over 2 years. Jack's 1993 was pretty in-line with Frank's 2007 (21 wins versus leading the team in homers and ribbies). Both seemed to do it with smoke and mirrors as Jack's ERA was right at league average and the Big Hurt took the first two months off.

But as to Morris' 1993 ... we'd have been better if he'd taken the summer off like Hanson. A 6.17 ERA, 7-12, tons of hits and walks with few strikeouts, not good at all. And if Hanson's value in 1997 was bad, what about the fact that Morris made $5.4 in 1993? A full 4 years earlier, which is almost another era with baseball's inflation.

By the way, I thought Hanson made $3.5 million in 1994, not $5 million. I get my figures from baseball-reference, what is your source?

[robert kinkley]

Richard, So with the departure of Frank Thomas, and with the best pitching in MLB since the last all star break, do you think that JP Richardi could sign Sammy Sosa?? He seems like a better DH then Barry Bonds, because Barry and his antics might outshine his performance at the plate. Thanks<> Robert Kinkley.

[Troy Kolar]

Hi Richard. Not that you have any pull with the Jays, but perhaps you can let them know that should they be stupid enough to sign a lying, cheating, arrogant Barry Bonds, they will lose many, many fans (me being one of them).

You have to believe in your sports team and a lot of people who have put up with J.P.'s questionable trades and signings and the players occasional performance will just stop believing in a Jays team that doesn't believe in any kind of honour. Thanks ...

[Tibor Bankuti]

The problem was not Frank Thomas or the players...it is their deployment by the poor excuse for a manager.

How long do the players and the fans have to suffer through the stupidity and lack of the most basic of baseball judgements exhibited by John Gibbons. Every year he costs the team the opportunity to win more than ten, perhaps 15 games....already this season he has blown three opportunities. And the players continue to pay as reinforced by this comment in one of the game Wrap-ups by a writer..."The loss was a source of frustration for the Blue Jays, and made for a quiet clubhouse following the game."...and it will be thus as long as Gibbons is allowed to screw up basic game strategy.

One...in New York...April 1...Hill doubles to start 7th inning with game tied 2-2...any idiot knows a bunt to move Hill to 3rd called for in Yankee stadium...Scutaro at bat...except Gibbons...Scutaro, Zaun and Eckstein ground out ...instead of an opportunity for a go ahead run...nothing...and NY wins 3-2 by scoring run in bottom of seventh.

Two...April 10...1-1..bottom of 11th...Zaun on 1st, McDonald on 3rd...ONE OUT, fly ball WINS game...Gibbons, with a fly ball needed and Scutaro coming up...does he pinch hit with someone who can at least hit ball out of infield..NOOOOOOOOOOOO...he let's him hit into the infield freezing McDonald...of course, Ekstein is next up and grounds out to end inning and they lose in 12 to Oakland 3-2.

Three...April 16...team comes back in bottom of eighth to tie with still only one out...Scutaro on third and Inglett on second, time to MANAGE...fly ball hitter needed...simple...noooooo...Gibbons let's Eckstein hit instead of a PH who could get ball out of infield on the fly to score go ahead run...infield grounder-throw to home, Scutaro out and end of threat. Extra innings...WE LOSE in 14 to Texas 7-5.

EITHER RICCIARDI GETS RID OF GIBBONS OR GODFREY GETS RID OF RICCIARDI AND, ERGO, GIBBONS. THIS IS WHY GODFREY WAS BOOED OPENING NIGHT. THE BUCK STOPS WITH HIM. WE FANS ARE FED UP.

Of course, no guarantee that the proper moves win game, but do you not think the players on the bench are not thinking same thing I am while watching..this guy is a moron and continues to lose winnable games. No wonder Thomas thought wrong guy was on the hot seat. It is only April. Three wins in April mean three wins in September. This team cannot win with Gibbons stunning lack of baseball sense. They can't continue to lose these close games and expect to contend.

[Ron]

I honestly was baffled by the Thomas signing right from the beginning. It has been discussed ad nauseum that he has always been a slow starter. I suppose that is ok if the team was in the weaker AL or NL West where you could be hanging around but still stay close to win the division and not worry about a wild card, but that is not the case with the Jays. They are in the AL East with the Red Sox and Yankees, two teams who could go on a run and leave them in the dust by mid-season. On a team who plays station to station baseball, has trouble hitting with men in scoring position and doesn't steal bases, two months is too long to wait for an over-the-hill DH.

[Jordan Lalonde]

hey richard,

Do you honestly think the jays still have a chance to contend in the AL East even with the Frank Thomas departure and the lack of offence?
I think releasing thomas was a terrible mistake and it will cost us over the course of the season. Also do you think we could pick up a guy like Sammy Sosa or Kenny Lofton instead of barry bonds?
In my eyes we have to pick up someone because this lineup without franky cant do it. (not saying that frank thomas IS the lineup, just saying he is a big part of it). So i think we have to get a Sammy Sosa or a Kenny Lofton.

[M.Fox]

Dh/1b problem solved...Dmitri Young he's signed for 2 years and 10 million to sit behind Nick Johnson in Washington. Do it J.P. Do It

[Avery]

Re: Joe Smith's comment about Jack Morris as one of the Jays' worst free agent signings...Wow. Your argument defeats itself. In 1993, Jack Morris won 21 games. How many times has a Blue Jay pitcher won 20 since then? Clemens, Hentgen, Halladay...I think that's it.

As for his ERA, who cares? In case you forgot, 1993 was the last time they won a little thing called the World Series.

[Kam Hooshmand]

Riccardi is an above average GM with a smaller budget but not with our current budget. Gibby...I don't like the way he handles the relievers. It's time for Cito to return the glory days to the Bluejays. I wish we could've signed Dombrowski (Tiger's GM) when we had the chance. The risk of Jays not meeting their expectations this year (To go to the playoffs)is not only Riccardi will be gone 100% but Gibby might be gone too and as a result, it would be difficult once again to sign free agents when the organization has just changed management. It's like a franchisee being sold to another and seing a sign that says "Under new management".

[phenomenal smith]

What's a Catch-33?

[Colin W]

I keep thinking back of how this city "ate" Cito Gaston alive after he won two world series, and with all the "better" managers we have had since, we haven't even had a sniff of the playoffs. I don't watch much baseball anymore because IMO managers are supposed to manage, not simply make pitching changes. Some of my beefs have been outlined by others, so no need to restate them, but JP and Gibby together are a fan's worst nightmare.

JP came with a lot of fanfare, hailed as a smart "small ball" guy. Small ball probably works when there's a manager who knows how to play/manage it. Last year, if I recall correctly, it was said a number of times that the Jays are not a bunting organization. What??? Small ball, remember? How many games have we lost because of the lack of executing baseball fundamentals?

Before I get off my soapbox, a word on Jay's salaries. I can well appreciate that Canadian sports team have to pay a "premium" for players to play here. Just part of doing business, I guess. However, given that we really were not in contention for the past number of years, it seems to me that some of the signings were reactive and meant to appease fans, and of course, the media (always calling for a "big bat", "a quality shortstop" and/or a "stud pitcher"). Just maybe we are all victims (or should I say pawns?) in this chess game. That the Jays have not competed in the playoffs since the '93 winners is nothing short of a travesty, and that management and coaches are allowed to get away with it is not short of ridiculous.

I'll start watching again when both Gibby and JP are gone. Come to think of it, Godfrey should go as well, as the current state of affairs has been allowed to deteriorate, and rot, under his watch.

[Harry Lees]

Hi Richard,

Do you think the jays should add a veteran arm in their bullpen?
Should they see if Jose Mesa still has some gas in the tank? I don't think Brian Wolf or Shawn Camp are going to last the seaon. Given that Camp is a minor league pitcher and Wolf does not have amazing stuff. Could I have your opinion on the jays situation in the DH position. Should they stick with Matt Stairs or maybe get a Sammy Sosa or Kenny Lofton to solve their problem in left field given that Shannon Stewart has not performed at all this season. Mike Piazza might be an decent choice who will not want a huge salary to play even though he never played much last season. Maybe they should trade for a player like Jim Thome or Aubrey Huff?

[Nav]

I complete agree with Tibor. It is time for Gibbons to go. He had no previous managing experience and it shows. Time and time again I have watched him completely lose a game, just by managing. He uses his bench wrong. He never uses his pinch hitters properly. He leaves his relief pitchers in to long. He always put a c-class line up in. He rests players that don't need rests. I can go on and on. Gibbons needs to go.

[Brian Barker]

Am I the only one who is really upset that they let Thomas go? He's had a slow start, but the man has power and wasn't exactly a slouch last season. That and the fact that's he's actually a nice, respectable guy (he was the only player who was voluntarily interviewed during the Mitchell Report, and who's actually advocated for clean, drug free baseball). I can understand that he was upset when they benched him, but to cut him the next day is just plain bone-headed. And they still have to pay him $8 million dollars? Why don't they just leave him on the team and let him play? No, instead we'll cut him and get basically nothing for the money we're paying him... Thanks Jays, I guess we'll wait for the '09 post season, cause it ain't happening in '08 the way you've been playing...

[Jim Branscome]

Richard, Thanks to your keen insight, it's all becoming quite clear. Since J. P. signs free agent to contracts with option years he does not intend to honor, he waited until he had Aaron Hill and Alex Rios signed to their contract extensions before he released Frank Thomas. Had the Rios and Hill deals gone down in mid March, Thomas would have been released much earlier. Hill and Rios now know their options will never be picked up. In the end, the joke is on J.P. because he will not be around to make those decisions.

[Joe Smith]

Avery - I think you need to understand the difference between "because of" and "in spite of"