Blue Jays mail bag

Many readers believe that we in the media are always looking and hoping for the Jays to lose. That is absolutely not true. The reasons may seem selfish, but it’s much easier to work with players and coaches in a winning environment. The answers seem better, the smiles seem longer and more genuine, the banter is lighter and the stories more diverse. How many times can you write fire the manager, the emperor/GM has no clothes, the hitters choked, the bullpen gave it up? I guess Yankee writers are fining that out. In any case, it’s nice to have another mailbag with a range of questions that are mostly positive and upbeat. I’ve come to the conclusion the readers are like a barometer of the Jays’ fortunes on the field. Here we go.

Q: It’s not quite as bad as Roy Halladay pitching four complete games and winning only one, but you've got to wonder about A.J. Burnett's luck sometimes. The man throws eight innings of 3-hit ball, is in a position to win, turns the ball over to the normally solid B.J. Ryan, the win all but guaranteed and...nothing. A great effort, and that’s it. But is that enough? I feel like the '08 Burnett is pitching better than the '06 and '07 one. I know his lifetime record is .500, but sometimes luck factors in (i.e. the game-saving catch Rios made in Doc's last game. Doc probably would have lost without that play). Any word on how Burnett is mentally holding up one-third through the season? Some of us Jays fans actually wish him well.

Francesco Paonessa, Richmond Hill

A: That is one of the great things about baseball. Because each game is a series of vignettes, 70-80 one-on-one duels adding up to a final outcome, anyone can dissect any game any way and have legitimate reasons why a game was won or lost, or why one pitcher is pitching in bad luck over another.

Yes, A.J. Burnett handed over a 3-2 lead to B.J. Ryan and yes the save was blown. Burnett had maybe his best curveball of the year going on Sunday, by his own estimation. His stuff was virtually un-hittable. But earlier in the game, to set up the Ryan blown save, just as A.J. was handed a 3-0 lead by his mates, he served up a juicy pitch to rookie Sean Rodriguez that he slammed into the bullpen for a two-run homer, the first of his career.

The '08 Burnett is indeed pitching better than the previous two seasons. He is healthier, other than the Range Rovered loss of a fingernail that he spent the spring trying to overcome. Burnett is also a kinder, gentler A.J. with everyone this year. Cynics might suggest that the improved consistency and the change in personality might have something to do with the fact that he has an opt-out opportunity after this season and needs to lay all his cards on the table for potential suitors as he did successfully in his other free-agent season, 2005. That year, with the Marlins, he set career highs in wins (12), starts (32) and innings pitched (209) and parlayed that into a five-year $55 million contract. Yikes! What would Doc be worth on the open market?

Q: Hello Richard:

This is one of those obnoxious “embarrassment of riches” sort of questions, but I think it needs to be asked: what are we going to do with (Casey) Janssen when he comes off the DL and is healthy enough to resume full-time duties? He is, despite his first (terrible) year, a bona fide starter, but with this top five, I can't imagine anybody being taken out. Do we stick him in long-relief until a starter gets injured, or is there anything else we can do?

Thane BenAngelo, St. Catharines, Ont.

A: In baseball there is no such thing as an embarrassment of riches. Year to year there is always something that changes the best-laid plans of mice and GMs.

As for Janssen’s future, think about this. If he had remained healthy, Jesse Litsch would be at Triple-A right now. The truth is that Janssen's best role is as a setup man for the closer, the same role he filled so well in 2007. This is the opinion of pitching coach Brad Arnsberg, even before Janssen’s unfortunate injury at spring training. By the time Janssen is back next year, who knows about A.J. and whether he will be gone. Then there's Halladay's contract that runs through 2010 and the other guys are tied up even beyond that. In addition, there is a crop of starters that may be ready to join the mix by '09. Then there are always injuries.

Things always work themselves out. Sit back and enjoy the current five. The good news for Janssen fans is that when we talked to him in Anaheim, when he came out to the yard and tried to stay out of everyone's way, he seemed mature and accepting of his present, looking forward to his future. He watches a lot of major-league games on TV and is always looking for things that other pitchers do that he could incorporate. Smart kid.

Q: Hello Richard,

When will sports writers such as yourself realize that dumping Frank Thomas resulted in the turnaround by the Jays? Without Thomas, the Jays are no longer a power hitting team. They now feature, pitching, defence and “small ball”. The Jays are playing winning baseball without Thomas. Signing him was a mistake, but dumping him seems to have salvaged the season.

Paul Martin, Brampton

A: Dude, you’re like someone who reads Tolstoy's epic War and Peace and just reads the parts about the "peace". You’ve got to read the whole body of work to appreciate it. Writers wrote exactly that about Thomas at the time he was released. Even though I liked Thomas as a man, the signing from Day 1 was a misguided mistake by a GM fascinated with being able to obtain one of the great on-base percentage leaders of all time.

Q: Richard - Love the mailbag, but that hurt when you picked (Josh) Beckett as your “best pitcher”. And perhaps that relates to your response to my question. Is it too early to talk all-star reps yet? Assuming the Jays only get one representative (unless we perhaps threw Ryan into the mix; certainly none of their noodle-like batsmen are going) is it Halladay or (Jesse) Litsch? Never thought we'd bring up Jesse’s name just yet, did you? But the kid threw a shutout again today (May 28th) and has an ERA comparable to Halladay. I think Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball and certainly eats more innings, but at this point, does Litsch deserve the nod over the good Doctor?

Andy Kaczynski, Waterloo, Ont.

A: The Litsch vs. Halladay all-star question is like pondering whether Jonah Hill should win an Oscar for Superbad over Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood, just because Hill’s movie made more money at the box office. As for this year’s All-Star Game, don’t forget Scott Rolen. The players get to cast a vote for a couple of players. That’s how Troy Glaus got in a couple of years ago and how Alex Rios got in last year. If A-Rod is voted in by the fans, that leaves a spot for another third-baseman. Mike Lowell of Boston and Adrian Beltre of Seattle are Rolen’s main competition. Even though the Jays' staff is full of guys that have an argument to be all-stars, history dictates a healthy Halladay is it.

Q: Hi Richard,

Am I the only person who thinks Adam Lind got a raw deal as a call-up earlier this season. It usually takes time for any player to get his timing back after injury, but for a minor league player to have to do it at the Major League level seems like poor planning on the Jays part. While he didn't perform in the limited time (20 AB) he was given, he seems to be excelling in the minors, leading the team in RBIs while hitting .328 and .463 with RISP. Would he not be an upgrade over Wilkerson in RF who is currently barely staying over the Mendoza line? While the Jays continue to win with Wilkerson in the line-up I don't expect any changes, but I wonder how long they can go with a .200 hitter, and when Lind will get another shot at showing his potential. What's your take and do you have any inside info on J.P. Riccardi’s plan for him?

Chris Dunlop, Toronto

A: You must be the guy who only read the “War” part of War and Peace. Are you the only guy? Hmm! Check out my column of May 6, "Jays aren’t looking at the Big Picture." It’s great to see Lind re-finding his groove in the minors.

This guy was given a raw deal via poor planning. The Jays brought him up as an everyday left fielder, with the plan being that Shannon Stewart and Matt Stairs would platoon at DH. A lot of pressure and some resentment from guys already on the scene was all that created for Lind. He's a quiet small-town kid from Indiana with a (for now) fragile psyche. Why not give Stairs the full-time DH job and have Lind platoon in left with Stewart. Neither one is a great defender, but at least he could have eased into the full-time role by earning it. But J.P. is a genius so who are we to question him?

As for Wilkerson, that’s another guy that Ricciardi has tried to get over the years and finally was successful – as a released player from the Mariners. Wilkerson knows how to play the game already which earns him the respect of manager John Gibbons. You’re right. Since the rest of the team has started to hit, it's less noticeable when your right fielder, who averages 180 strikeouts every 600 at-bats and hasn’t hit over .250 since 2005, is hitting .221 with a .600 OPS. But, as Gibbons keeps repeating: "He knows how to play the game."

As for J.P.’s plans for Adam Lind, I think the plans are for Travis Snider and Lind gets the scraps.

Q: I admired your recent and rather frank assessment of Dave Stieb. I'm wondering if you could rank the top-5 Jays pitchers “of all time” perhaps excluding or asterisking you-know-who because of you-know-what and those who did not play a whole season, adding your frank assessments if you wish. Perhaps if you have time to reminisce, you could do the same for the Expos (one could weep).

Frederick Duquette, Edmonton

A: I love questions like this. Yes, Stieb is one of those for whom the famous line "He never learned to say hello until it was time to say goodbye" may have been written. But on to the rankings.

The Top Five Jays pitchers of all time, based on impact and not on record, because the ERAs change the criteria: 1. Stieb; 2. Roy Halladay; 3. Mindy’s Main Man; 4. Pat Hentgen; T5. Jim Clancy, Jimmy Key. The relievers Tom Henke and Duane Ward would head a separate list of top bullpen performers. As for the Expos, that is a question near and dear to my heart. Using the same criteria, in terms of impact over stats: 1. Steve Rogers; 2. Dennis Martinez; 3. Pedro Martinez; 4. Bill Stoneman; T5. Bryn Smith, Charlie Lea.

Q: Richard;

Am I the only one to observe that when Aaron Hill struck out against Huston Street the other night while representing the tying run, it left me with a case of the Hill-Street blues?

Rob Wilkins, Scarborough

A: That is a great line and I wish I had thought of it – and in fact, somewhere down the line, I’m sure I will. I’m also quite positive that as Hill approached the plate in Oakland with the outcome of the game on the line, he hoped he was going to U2’s special place “Where the Streets Have No Game.”

Q: I'll be heading down to Pittsburgh in June to catch the Jays play at PNC Park and I was wondering if you had any knowledge of the area/park that a visiting fan should know? (Other than bowing to Roberto Clemente as the All Knowing, All Powerful, Maker and Creator).

Andrew Stewart, Oshawa

A: I love Pittsburgh. Not the Pittsburgh of the late ‘70s when I first started going there where every time you went for a walk you were covered in soot and had to take a shower when you came back to your room. But the modern Pittsburgh where steel has gone the way of iron; where rust never sleeps; where you find the confluence of the three rivers, the Allegheny, the Monongahela and the Ohio; where rusty orange bridges span the waterways as far as the eye can see; where the women strolling the streets still see Mary Tyler Moore and Marlo Thomas as their icons of style; where the favourite names for twin girls have long been Polly and Ester; where Terry Bradshaw could win at Jeopardy.

The new ballpark is a great area to go early and stay late after games. Three Rivers Stadium was one of those ’70s multi-sport cookie-cutter parks that you went to just for the ballgame. There was nothing to do on that side of the river. Now with PNC Park, one of the greatest of the new buildings to watch a game in, it’s a hub of night clubs and restaurants that stay lively well after the game. I would stay at a downtown hotel like the Courtyard by Marriott or the Westin at the Convention Centre and just walk to games. As you come down off the bridge is the statue of Roberto Clemente. It must be touched with reverence. Post-game there are many choices to have a drink, but there is one just down the side street across from the Clemente statue that you must go for at least one libation. It’s a hole in the wall where I took my daughter and her friend after the All-Star Game a few years ago. There’s room for about 25 patrons. The owner tends bar and when he found out we were Canadian we had to sing the anthem to the assembled throng (of 10). He’s a big hockey fan and talked of having to throw Sidney Crosby out for being underage even though Sid didn’t even want to order alcohol. He was just hanging with teammates.

Tough town. Nice town. Also must-dos are the Museum of Natural History (who says I have no culture) and Station Square during the day for shopping and lunch.

Q: Hi Richard,

Now that the Blue Jays have found their offensive stride and are playing winning baseball I think it’s an opportune time to explore the lighter side of baseball. I ask that you pick your all-time Expos squad compare it with your all-time Blue Jays squad and pick which team you’d think would win in a seven-game Canadian (albeit fantasy) World Series.

Fred Vance, Calgary

A: Like I said above, I love questions like this. In this case, unlike the question above, we’re looking for short-term talent that could win a seven-game series. That would leave out the likes of Jim Clancy for the Jays and Bill Stoneman for the Expos. Here we go:

POS.	JAYS	EXPOS	WINNER
Catcher	Ernie Whitt	Gary Carter	Expos
First Base	Carlos Delgado	Andres Galarraga	Jays
Second base	Roberto Alomar	Jose Vidro	Jays
Third Base	Kelly Gruber	Tim Wallach	Expos
Shortstop	Tony Fernandez	Orlando Cabrera	Jays
Left Field	George Bell	Tim Raines	Expos
Centre Field	Lloyd Moseby	Andre Dawson	Expos
Right Field	Jesse Barfield	Vlad Guerrero	Expos
DH	Winfield/Molitor	L.Walker/A.Oliver	Expos
4-Starters	Dave Stieb	Steve Rogers	Expos
	McNamee’s bum-boy	Dennis Martinez	Jays
	Pat Hentgen	Pedro Martinez	Expos
	Jimmy Key	Charlie Lea	Jays
2-Relievers	Tom Henke	John Wetteland	Expos
	Duane Ward	Mike Marshall	Jays
Manager	Cito Gaston	Dick Williams	Jays

RESULT: Expos win a seven game series, four games to three.

Click here to send Richard a question, and he'll answer a selection in his mailbag Wednesdays in this space.
**Eds note: please follow the link above to send a question to Richard. Questions posted in the comments section may not make it to the mailbag. Thanks.**

Comments

[Jason]

Hey Expos Homer.
If you really think Walker/Oliver beats Winfiled/Molitor you need some meds.
Everything else is pretty close to accurate.

[Kevin]

I'm not sure about Gruber as the Jays' 3B for the fantasy series. Sure, he might have had more power, but I think Mulliniks was a more consistent batter, and at least as good a fielder. Hell, I think I'd even take Roy Howell over Kelly Gruber. (On the other hand, we can be thankful that Sprague didn't make the list - a good WS doesn't make you an all-time great.)

And what's with "Mindy's Main Man" and "McNamee’s bum-boy"? Who are they? (I assume Halladay is the latter, since didn't make the WS team, but did make the top 5), but who's the other? And what's the reference?

[Kevin]

Oh, and as for Pittsburgh, Three Rivers may not have been the best stadium in the Majors. But the view when I came out of a tunnel while driving to the stadium about 20 years ago was amazing. And then, there was the cost: $3 parking (at the time, parking near the dome would have been at least $10 on a game day), the less expensive beer, right out of the can (even if it wasn't as good), and $10 for a seat 3 rows behind home plate (that I bought when I walked up to the box office 30 minutes before the game). I saw the Pirates play the Braves. Of course, this was 1991, when the two teams lead the race to their respective divisional basements, the year before each won their divisions. (By the way, has that ever happened since?)

[Eric]

Hi Richard,

I wonder, why all this praise continually directed at Roy Halladay? You can't say he's the most successful pitcher record-rise, and he's not exactly the most durable. He's very competitive and that's fun to watch but do actions not speak louder than words? You'd think the guy would have 20-win seasons all up and down his resume by now from the way people talk about him. At the end of the day, I think I'd be surprised to even see him hit 200 wins for his CAREER- which is nothing to sneeze at, granted, but it's certainly not reflective of the way people talk about him either.

My point is that if he was really as great as people claim, he'd have more results by now, no? The guy's got 118 wins over 10 seasons. In my opinion, that's not elite. As wild as it sounds, it may be closer to mediocre!

[Jake]

Devon White and Joe Carter over Barfield and Moseby
Rance and Dane at third.
Jays win because they had more players who did win.

[Alberto White]

Does anyone know who Mindy's Main Man is? David Cone? I can't, for the life of me, think of who it would be. Thanks

[Alberto White]

McNamee’s bum-boy is Clemens

[MM]

Who is Mindy's main man? I'm guessing McNamee’s bum-boy is Roger Clemens. Halladay for SURE is better than either Key, Hentgen or Clancy... come on! There is no way Halladay doesn't win twice as many games if he plans with either the offence from the 80s or 90s. Also, Vernon Wells is a far better CF than Moseby and I would put Green and Rios in there instead of Barfield. Barfield was for sure overrated offensively considering his actual production. Also, what about Olerud instead of Winfield?

[Robin]

'McNamee’s bum-boy' is obviously Roger Clemons!

[PB]

Does anyone know who Mindy's Main Man is? David Cone? I can't, for the life of me, think of who it would be. Thanks
--------------------------------------------------------------
Mindy (McCready)'s Main man is obviously also Roger Clemens.

[Thomas Lam]

Love your mailbag. Very insightful. It's like the York Report on Metro. Contains all kinds of interesting info we don't get on TV. Anyway, 2 questions:
1. being a realist, I don't anticipate the Jays to be in the playoffs again. Realistically, who should they go after for the GM and Manager jobs?
2. why aren't you on Jesse Litsch's bandwagon? I ain't no baseball scout, but he is 7-1 heading into tonight's game. Isn't his stuff similar to Shawn Marcum's? Or even Greg Maddux's? You may say he is lucky, but he has to be at least decent in order to capitalize the luck. Please be fair to your assessment on him.

[Sivart]

Nah Marcum is much better than Litsch if you ask me, and all his stats support that opinion. The only difference is that Marcum hasn't been getting the run support thus far, but if he starts getting some run support he could be an all-star pitcher this year or sometime in the future. Litsch is just a dam good #5 pitcher, but don't forget he is a #5 pitcher. Putting Litsch's name in the same sentence as Maddux is a travesty.

[Daniel McIlroy]

Wetteland over Henke? That's just plain weird.

Wetteland was very good. But Henke was quite clearly better (he was essentially the exact equal of Bruce Sutter), and for waht it's worth he was in Toronto twice as long as Wetteland was in Montreal.

[Chris]

Hi Richard,

Were you choosing not to use current Jays for the list? Halladay would beat out hentgen on the Jays staff, but that spot would still lose to Pedro.

To eric, wins in one of the worst ways to judge a pitcher. Look past the wins and you will find that Halladay day is one of the best.

[Jonathan]

Wow, Eric. To use some of Richard's own words, you’re like someone who reads Tolstoy's War and Peace and adamantly concludes it's an action novel. It's more likely that everyone else is right about Halladay being a great pitcher than you are about him being mediocre. If Halladay is only mediocre, then what does that say about pitchers like Smoltz and Schilling?

If you use a more fair (and logical) comparison, whereby you exclude the following:
- The current season, which isn't yet complete
- Any seasons where a pitcher was used significantly as a reliever
- Developmental years
- Partial seasons due to being promoted halfway through the season from the minors
BUT including:
- Partial seasons due to injury (as this indicates durability)

Schilling, over 14 core seasons, for a total of 395 games, has a record of 190-116, or 13.6-8.3 per season, or 17.3-10.6 per 36 starts, for a win rate of about 62%.

Smoltz, over 14 core seasons, for a total of 444 games, has a record of 199-130, or 14.2-9.3 per season, or 16.1-10.5 per 36 starts, for a win rate of about 60%.

Halladay, over 6 core seasons, for a total of 173 games, has a record of 93-38, or 15.5-6.3 per season, or 19.4-7.9 per 36 starts, for a win rate of about 70%. Even including the 2001 season where Halladay spent half the time in the minors, he'd still be winning over 15 games per season, or 18.6 wins per 36 starts, with the same 70-71% win rate. (Smoltz would have his included too, then, dropping his to 12.7 wins per season or 15.9 wins per 36 starts, for a 59% win rate)

You might argue that the 1999 and 2000 seasons should be included as well, but honestly, it's not like Halladay struggled during the middle of his career (which I'd then agree should be included). The greatness of a pitcher should be derived from the body of his work, and not from his early career struggles. Ever since Halladay rediscovered himself, he's been one of the best pitchers in major league baseball, with one of the best win rates outside of guys like Pedro, while pitching for what has been a horrible/mediocre team his entire career, while Smoltz has been on a team that has been competitive since at least the last time the Jays were in the World Series. The only knock on him is the fact that he took a few extra years to develop into the pitching force he is today.

[Jonathan]

Oh, and BTW, that's IF we decide that Wins are the ultimate standard upon which a pitcher is judged, which I disagree with to begin with (but you seem to fancy them, so I obliged).

[Brett Young]

"Even though I liked Thomas as a man, the signing from Day 1 was a misguided mistake by a GM fascinated with being able to obtain one of the great on-base percentage leaders of all time."

Hmm... speaking of this, I just finished reading "Moneyball" recently, and you got a very rough ride at the end of the book, Richard. I haven't seen whether you ever responded to Lewis' comments? Granted, the articles he criticized were written some time ago.

Best,
Brett Young
Helsinki

[Rob S.]

here here Jonathan!!! People just can't be positive...I dare Eric to go on Blue jays website and tell the regulars on the message board that he is not great...you will not come out alive....cheers

[mark]

Of course your handpicked Expos beat your handpicked Jays in 7, becuase you picked the wrong Jays. I would say any one of Black Jack Morris, Cone and Halladay could take Hentgen's spot. I'd also like Devon White & Joe Carter instead of Shaker and Barfield. One for his 'd' and leadoff prowess and one for his clutch hitting (how can you leave Joe off this team, are you crazy?). And, I'd have to agree with a previous comment... Molitor/Winnfield over Walker/Oliver any day and Henke over Wettland too.
My handpicked Jays beat your handpicked Expos, hands down.

[Graham Jack]

Hi Richard,

Thanks for taking the time to answer everyones questions via blog, its really adds a new dimension to your articles. I have a question for you my brother and I were pondering.

If you were to put together your Jays "lighting in a bottle team", one which consists of Jays who had 2 years or less service with the club, who would you put on it? I have a theory that a good portion of it would be guys who won a world series, which says something doesn't it?

Thanks,
Graham.

[Joltin' Joe]

Jays lose in 7 'cause I'm not on the team. Add Joe Carter and the Jays win in 6. Dramatically. Name a 'Jays World Series clincher where I wasn't the last to touch the ball.

[Fred]

There is no room for two Joltin' Joes! The Yankee Clipper will always be the one and only Joltin' Joe. A colourful guy such as yourself certainly should be able to come up with your own moniker.

With respect to the last out of the 92 series vs the Braves (Otix Nixon's failed bunt attempt); who got to keep the ball ... you or Timlin?

[Bill]

Reed Johnson shows the Blue Jays they screwed up by getting rid ohim. Come on Shannon Stewart over Reed Johnson. A rotisserie manger could have called that one. Now Ted Lilly comes back to haunt Gibbons. All Gibbons needs now is for Frank thomas to come back to Rogers and hit a couple bombs. I'm betting on that to happen. Hmmm. How about Shea Hillenbrand coming back to manage? How appropriate that would be (but I doubt that one will happen). I Ricchardi has done OK, but he's going down w/ Gibbons. He should have fired Gibbons 2 years ago.

[greg]

Alot of attention is being focused and unnecessarily amplified on what AJ said to the media. I read the comments and thought nothing of them. I thing the Jay's top management has a hand on this to distract the fact that the team is less than mediocre. Diverting attention of what the real problem is, is an every day occurance. It's exactly what JP is doing.