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  • Richard Griffin began working for the Star as baseball columnist on Feb.13, 1995. Griffin began his career in major-league baseball with the Montreal Expos in 1973 while attending Concordia University. He became director of publicity in 1978. Griffin is in the Baseball Hall of Fame in Cooperstown as '93 winner of the Robert O. Fishel Award and has been at all or part of every World Series since 1978.

    Click here to send Richard your Blue Jays question and he'll answer a selection in the blog.

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August 27, 2008

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"Major League Baseball is not Fantasy Baseball where every ERA, WHIP, VORP or DORK stands on its own...to dismiss wins as a “context specific” stat is silly in a team sport that by definition is a “context specific” sport."

Sigh...can we please get a baseball writer that doesn't believe this drivel? This is how Bartolo Colon won the Cy Young Award a few years ago when Johan Santana was the best pitcher in the American League by any measure except for wins, WHICH ARE MORE DEPENDENT ON RUN SUPPORT THAN PITCHER PERFORMANCE. There are enough statistics to back this up that intelligent baseball people know it's true. I'd list them off, but I have to get back to my mom's basement to calculate my fantasy team's DORK~!

Hey Richard,

I really appreciate your work covering the Jays and answering these questions for fans like me. I have a miniature plan (which I’m sure you’ll criticize) for 09’ and beyond. Our pitching for the past two seasons has been unarguably at the top of the league and I’m sure we can find somebody in our system to replace AJ Burnett especially considering we are doing fine currently without Dustin McGowan. Now to the hitting; If I were the GM of the Jays I would offer up a Casey Jansen and maybe a B prospect or two to the Rockies for 3B Garrett Atkins. There is no salary issue and it really benefits both clubs. The Jays give up a pitcher whom they are fine without and the Rockies give up one of their many bats, not to mention Ian Stewart (prospect) is digging at his heels as it is. It gives the Rockies a starter or a setup man who has proven he’s good and it gives the Jays marginal power and a guy who can actually hit. Now here’s where it becomes complicated. Do the Jays make Atkins their DH? Or do they try to trade Scott Rolen for a potential starter? Also they have to address their prospects. Do the Jays bring up JP Arencibia or Travis Snider? Or do they stick with the squad they have? Even though their stats seem to prove that they are ready for the majors the Blue Jays have to consider their performance rather than development if they want to continue blindly chasing the pennant they will never grasp. Sorry for the long question…or rather game plan for the future; I just want your take on my plan and if you would so kindly outline what you would do for next year and possibly 2010. Thanks a lot.

I'm guessing Mr. Griffin wrote this before Rolen was activated off the DL - which seems to make Bautista's presence all the more confusing. If the guy was disgruntled that the Pirates weren't playing him everyday, I can't imagine he'll sweeten the clubhouse now.

And with respect to the previous comment, while I am all for dismissing wins as a valuable stat, I think Richard's real point is that baseball value is really about what a player ACTUALLY does, not what they're statistically likely to have done.

Stats reveal averages, and not actual performances. Pointing out the wide variance between Burnett's best and worst outings this year draws precise attention to this - if you're going to get shelled for an ERA over 10.00 run support is pretty much irrelevant, whereas the difference between surrendering 1 and surrendering 2 runs is much more likely to help you win a game.

You can't say that Burnett has the same value as a guy who has same ERA and WHIP, but without the extreme highs and lows which Burnett has exhibited. Bill James addresses this in one of his books (The Politics of Glory, I think) when he compares two guys with similar career stats, but one is consistent, whereas the other peaks higher but then declines more rapidly. James points out that the guy who peaks higher will end up with more win shares, and in this insistence, Burnett has ended up with more wins. In short: being significantly above average helps your team more than being significantly below average hurts your team.

Dave, I agree with you that the consistency is important, and does give a small bit of weight to the statistic of wins. Still, you yourself even couldn't get away from using win shares, and the truth is that Burnett's win shares are DOWN this year from last year. Burnett won 4 games giving up 4 or more runs, including a game in which he got rocked for 7.

More robust individual stats like VORP and DORK and win shares are out there because you should be able to have some prediction about their performance based on them. Wins do not do this well at all, not nearly as well as WHIP and other mostly defense-independent and definitely offense-independent statistics.

I do think the author was trying to be disrespectful and dismiss more robust individual statistics than "wins," and I do think that's wrong and stubborn. Just because statistics are older doesn't mean they're better.

For crying out loud, Livan Hernandez is 10-8 and Johan Santana is 12-7. Do you really think there's not a big difference between these two guys? Wins are a bad statistic in general, because if you switched the teams those guys were on, Santana is probably 18-4 and Hernandez is like 4-16 (actually he's probably cut from the Mets for and throwing moonballs for the Rockies).

I just think it's a shame that the guy who asked the question actually cares about baseball, put some work into thinking about it, and knows how the game works. He came to a professional, supposedly an expert on the Jays, to ask a very well thought-out question, and the author basically blew him off.

You wonder why people read blogs--it's because today's fans are smart and many of the "journalists" who write about baseball just blow off curious fans who care to learn and know the game of baseball and enhance their experience of loving the game by understanding some of the meaningful player statistics.

"Sigh...can we please get a baseball writer that doesn't believe this drivel? This is how Bartolo Colon won the Cy Young Award a few years ago when Johan Santana was the best pitcher in the American League by any measure except for wins, WHICH ARE MORE DEPENDENT ON RUN SUPPORT THAN PITCHER PERFORMANCE. There are enough statistics to back this up that intelligent baseball people know it's true. I'd list them off, but I have to get back to my mom's basement to calculate my fantasy team's DORK~!"

Thank you for bringing some intelligence to this article. With every word I read in this "mail bag," I felt like someone was stabbing my eyes with a dulled spoon.

Crap, mom is making meatloaf, better go upstairs!

I don't see how anyone who keeps up with baseball can make the argument that AJ is having a career year. Disparage the stats all you want, but they tell the truth: he is not. He has not even been all that good. Wins are very important for a team. But as a pitching stat, they're a different monster, and a mostly useless one at that.

Question submitter here - I don't much mind that Richard was a bit snarky with me, though I do think it's strange that he responded to a question about what makes qualifies as an individual's "career year" with text about baseball being a "team sport". While undeniably true, one would think that the team has a rather minimal factor in determining whether the individual player is a having a "career year". (The team DOES play a role, of course. A hitter has more RBIs and scores more runs for a team with a good offense, but I think this speaks to the unreliability of, to use that dirty term again, context-specific stats when evaluating an individual player's performance.)

I also think that the "good start"/"bad start" split is an unfair one - we're not given mulligans in baseball, so it's silly to invent a totally arbitrary distinction like this. And we could do this with most players to make them look better, couldn't we? So why don't we split the seasons of some other guys into 7 bad/19-21 good starts and see what happens?

How about a pitcher having a better season, but posting a worse record?

Matt Cain:
Season: 8-10, 3.55
Worst 7: 0-6, 9.16
Remaining 21: 8-4, 2.11

Or maybe a pitcher posting a statistically similar year, and whom Jays fans may recognize?

Ted Lilly:
Season: 13-7, 4.23
Worst 7: 0-4, 9.20
Remaining 21: 13-3, 3.14

Hell, I bet we can even use this split to make the argument that Barry Zito is having a deceivingly good year.

Barry Zito:
Season: 8-15, 5.31
Worst 7: 0-7, 12.56
Remaining 19: 8-8, 3.49

3.49 when he's not awful? Give this man ANOTHER Cy Young award! ... Seriously, though, every seasoned professional has a handful of bad starts which, if we could simply make them disappear, obscure an otherwise competent-to-excellent season. But they all count, which is why there isn't an award for Best Pitcher If You Don't Count Those 7 Bad Starts. (Which, in any case, Burnett still wouldn't win.)

Scutaro as Team MVP?

Rios has more runs, RBI, stolen bases, home runs and a better average and OPS.

Plays better defense too.

I think people are missing the obvious. For AJ, a carear year is a year that he makes 30+ starts. He has done this only once so far, coincidently in his last year with the Marlins.

Chris: In fact, I asked Richard whether the fact that AJ hasn't missed a start yet is enough to warrant "career year" status.

I wonder how many critical comments have been deleted here. I will try to get one in though. For Richard to assign so much significance to won-loss records is simply mindboggling. Obviously, run support is crucial. Nolan Ryan had a career winning percentage of .526. (324-292). Does Richard consider him slightly above average?

I really don't care for the assault on anyone who takes stats seriously, either. It's intellectually lazy and in the baseball context is akin to jocks bullying nerds in middle school.

I'm glad the commenters have common sense on this issue. Even when I was a kid, wins never made sense to me. One guy could strike out 10 batters, give up 3 runs, 6 hits, but his team scores 2, so he gets the loss. But another pitcher could give up 8 runs, no Ks, and 11 hits, but his team scores 10 runs, and he gets the win.

It makes no sense! If you use wins to factor in a career year, it makes more sense to say that the offense is having a career year instead of Burnett, as they are the ones responsible for those wins.

Kinda like when I was a kid, and my mom would give me money to put into the church offering plate. Yes, I was the one (pitcher) giving the money, but it it was not for my mother's purse (the offense), I wouldn't be able to make that donation.

Any by kid, I mean a 24-year-old. I still live in my mom and dad's basement :) Sorry for the long comment!

One of the first things my dad (who isn't a stat guy, though he's open a lot of the newer ones) told me when I was a budding young tyke watching baseball was to never judge a pitcher by their won-loss record. Few pieces of wisdom have served me better in my life. I believe that a pitcher's won-loss record by any other name would be disregarded as irrelevant. Even if a pitcher throws a 9 perfect innings and strikes everyone out (removing his fielders from the equation), he's done everything he can to get his them the win... but only half of what's needed to get himself a win. If his offense has an off day, sorry dude. No win for you.

Hi Richard. Here's the way I feel about things – perhaps stated a little more bluntly than you might.

TEN REASONS TO FIRE J.P. RICCIARDI

10. Because he wasn't the first choice when Ted Rogers settled on him, and he's demonstrated why. (So, how has Theo Epstein done in the last few years, anyway?)

9. Because he has no class, and Blue Jay fans expect class from the organization. (Ask Buck Martinez, Frank Thomas, or the Cincinnati Reds.)

8. Because of the boneheaded, "heads he wins, tails we lose" contract he gave A.J. Burnett. If Burnett did well, we were always going to lose him. If Burnett was a bust, we were always going to be stuck with him.

7. Because he repeatedly signs journeyman and has-been players, trying to catch lightning in a bottle in order to make himself look like a genius, only to have them turn out as their records would have you expect.

6. Because he will get rid of an outstanding player like Reed Johnson in favour of a cheaper, but less capable player like Shannon Stewart, and then waste millions of dollars signing and discarding spare and duplicate parts, often for the same position, exclaiming, "We've always liked this guy" each time.

5. Because he always says, "I like this team, I really do," even when the team fails to contend. He's either lying, can't read the standings, or is aiming for some goal other than winning.

4. Because he blames the Yankees and Red Sox for making his life difficult. He knew they were there when he signed on. Since they're not going to go away, we might as well find someone who will find a way to win.

3. Because his first task was going to be to create a great farm system that produced a steady stream of great players. Today, Baseball Prospectus rates our minor league system as 25th out of 30, and Syracuse is 14 games out of first place – which is still better than the Blue Jays.

2. They say the reason you fire a manager is because you can't fire 25 players. But after you've fired three managers, and the team still doesn't perform, who else is responsible for poor performance?

1. Because Roy Halliday is one of the best, and classiest players in baseball, and deserves to play in the post-season, and Ricciardi has proven that he can't build a team to take him there. Halladay deserves better – and so do we. Get rid of the bum.

Can't help but note a math error in such a well written set of answered questions that have obscures literary references: 5.5 million Ben Franklins = 550 million dollars. That contract might not be very good, but fortunately, it's not that bad.

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