Mail Bag
American and National leagues are split East and West:
AL EAST STANDINGS: 1-Yankees 2-Red Sox 3-Tigers 4-Rays 5-Blue Jays 6-Indians 7-Orioles (all seven are in the Eastern Time Zone)
AL WEST STANDINGS: 1-Angels 2-Rangers 3-Mariners 4-Twins 5-White Sox 6-A’s 7-Royals (four in Central Time Zone and three in Western)
NL EAST STANDINGS: 1-Phillies 2-Braves 3-Marlins 4-Astros 5-Reds 6-Mets 7-Pirates 8-Nationals (seven in Eastern Time Zone and one in Central)
NL WEST STANDINGS: 1-Dodgers 2-Cardinals 3-Rockies 4-Giants 5-Cubs 6-Brewers 7-Padres 8-Diamondbacks (three teams in Central Time Zone, one in Mountain and four in Western)
NEW POST-SEASON PLAYOFF FORMAT
(if season ended today):
AL First place Yankees and Angels both get bye
NL First place Phillies and Dodgers both get bye
ROUND 1: Second place in East and West each host wild-card best of three series in their home park starting two days after the season and played on consecutive days. The two league wild-cards are the next two best records. They can come from the same division. Best second place record plays worst wild-card record.
October 6-8 (best of three)
Mariners at Red Sox
Tigers at Rangers
Giants at Cardinals
Rockies at Braves
ROUND 2: Top seeded first place team hosts Games 1-2-5 in a best-of-five vs. lowest ranked winner of wild-card Round 1:
October 10-15 (best of five)
At Yankees
At Angels
At Phillies
At Dodgers
ROUND 3:
ALCS and NLCS (best of seven)
October 17-25
ROUND 4:
WORLD SERIES
October 27-November 4
On to the mailbag.
Q: Read your piece on Johnny Mac - wonderful read! I hope Cito read it too and does give him the start in that last home game; the fans deserve that pleasure as much as McDonald himself. I have two related questions for you. Where do you see McDonald landing next year? Is there a team out there that appears to fit for him more than another? Secondly, while it seems obvious (and positive!) that the Jays will try to resign Marco Scutaro, who do see them turning to in the event that he signs elsewhere? The only name that comes to mind immediately is Orlando Cabrera, someone I know they expressed interest in last year. Thanks, as always!
Jon Empringham, Woodstock, Ont.
A: Obviously McDonald is going to play a more important role down the stretch with the plantar fasciitis (foot) injury to Marco Scutaro. It’s ironic to check the quote in the column from Johnny Mac about his playing time relying on the health of Scutaro and Hill and that thankfully they have both been healthy.
As for where he might play next year, he can play anywhere he wants. The great thing about his situation is that this contract with the Jays at $1.9 million for each of 2008 and ‘09 was the most money he had ever earned in a season. That is extremely affordable for a backup infielder with his mind-blowing defensive skill-set. It was suggested to Mac that his talents would seem to fit better on a National League bench. He pointed out his entire career has been in the AL.
Family is very important to him. He comes from Connecticut and lives in the Cleveland area and so I think the top four five potential employers for McDonald would be 1-Indians; 2-Red Sox; 3-Yankees; 4-Jays; 5-Mets.
The pickings are slim at shortstop on the upcoming free agent market. Realistically at the Jays’ affordability level might try Scutaro, Johnny Mac, Cabrera, Bobby Crosby or Khalil Greene. The best bet is Scutaro who will find that nobody wants to sign him and give up two draft picks to the Jays. He is worth more to Toronto than anywhere else. How about two years for $13 million plus an option for 2012? Justin Jackson is still three or four years away, which would fit in nicely with the timing of a Scutaro deal.
Q: Hi Richard:
In your last mailbag, Sept 16, you said the Jays should field their best defensive team. Given the errors, missed cutoff men and missed defensive opportunities generally I could not agree with you more. In listing the lineup that would provide that defence you placed Lind at DH and Snider in left field. Shouldn't that be reversed? Snider is consistently missing cutoffs and sometimes seems shaky out there. (A ball went off his glove on what should have been a catch this past week.) Isn't Lind currently a better defensive option? This would also allow Snider to focus on how to deal with big league pitching. Keep up the great work!
Tim Rorke, Timmins, Ont.
A: I still believe that for the sake of a) the young pitchers; b) Roy Halladay; c) the fans and d) Cito Gaston’s mental health that playing the best defensive baseball currently on hand is a key for making the Jays interesting in the final two weeks. That means Barajas or Chavez; Lyle Overbay every day (no Millar); Hill; Johnny Mac; Vernon and Jose Bautista in right (who has been amazingly solid). Of course with the injury to Scutaro, Edwin Encarnacion must play every day at third. Besides if you ever want to trade him in the off-season, he needs to be treated with respect as if he’s the Jays’ starter for 2009-10. That leaves left field.
Both Snider and Lind are below average, however, despite the rookie brain farts of throwing to nobody in particular, missing cutoff men, throwing to the wrong base and forgetting how many outs there are, Snider is the better option. Lind is slower, gets worse reads and jumps and is important for his healthy RBI bat. Not ringing endorsements for either man, but maybe if Lind was eventually moved to first base that would allow the Jays to reach out for another RBI bat at DH or in right.
Q: Hi Richard,
I have followed the Jays now pretty closely for several years and read your mailbag with much intrigue. To me the Jays are really not that far off being a contender. We have two great power hitters in Hill and Lind. We have an under-performing star who I believe will no doubt bounce back in Wells. The Jays have a core group of good players. Except for the important win-loss column we are not terribly behind in overall stats with our big spending friends south of the border.
This is a big if, but IF we are able to spend a little more (Paul Beeston suggested we could see a roster worth $120 million given the right business plan) could we not put together a winning team next year? If you had the additional 55-odd million available to spend for next year, what would you do to get us over this bump? Am I in lala land here in thinking this is even possible?
Bryan Freeman, Oakville
A: I was watching Vernon Wells in batting practice on Monday and Tuesday and the ball is jumping off his bat again. He is loose and confident in his swing. That’s good and bad. Does that mean he can only perform at his best when his team has fallen out of contention or does that mean that he has finally got his groove back and we can look forward to him carrying it into next season? It’s up to Vernon.
Here’s some suggestions on how to spend the Jays’ money. Make an intelligent trade for Roy Halladay, sign Chone Figgins of the Angels to play third base and re-sign Marco Scutaro. Either re-sign Rod Barajas for a reasonable two-year salary, or else find another decent catcher (there’s tons of them out there), get a healthy Shaun Marcum back and take a chance on a reasonably priced Rich Harden as a free agent. Move Adam Lind to first base and let ‘er rip in 2010. That would not even take the Jays up to your $120 million if they could find deals to trade away Overbay and Encarnacion.
Top of the Lineup: Figgins; Scutaro; Hill; Lind; Wells etc. etc.
Rotation: Marcum; Romero; Harden; Halladay trade; Rzepczynki or Cecil.
I truly believe that Scott Downs has not been the same pitcher since his first injury. This guy needs to stay anchored to the top of the mound and never leave. Every time he ventures down the hill he strains something – including our credulity.
Into the Valley of Death rode the Jays’ closer … But when he was completely healthy at the time B.J. hit the road, Downs had closer-ability. I would suggest Jason Frasor could do it on a regular basis except he takes so damn long between pitches it’s painful.
Q: Hi Richard,
Question I've been wondering for quite some time now. In pucks, players get paid less in the minors and more in the majors (two way contracts and all that); on the same note, how much do minor league players get paid when they get called up? Pro-rated version of the league minimum? And the same thing with guys who are signed and sent down; do they get their regular major league stipend or the minor league stuff? I tried figuring it out but I couldn’t find it anywhere. Let me know!
Nicholas Hung, London
A: Guys that get called up earn pro-rated major league minimum of $400,000 which is paid out basically over six months. So if a player comes up in September he pretty much earns one-sixth of the minimum. All young organization players on the 40-man are on two-way deals. If they are on the 40-man roster and are sent out at the end of spring training, they earn their minor-league money. If they’re called up they earn their major-league agreement. Veterans and top-tier free agents usually sign guaranteed deals that pay them major-league money even if they are sent to the minors. However there are so many free agents out there now that fringe veteran players don’t have any bargaining power and the major-league guarantees are fewer and further between.
Q: Hi there.
Why isn’t Cito Gaston playing Randy Ruiz on a more constant basis? The season has been over for months now and this is a great time to see what he’s got. From what I've seen, this guy seems to hit a bomb every three or four games. Why isn’t he in the lineup everyday? Ruiz could be in the starting nine next year with the type of power he’s showing.
Dave Roberts, Brantford
A: The choice for Gaston came down to playing Ruiz or Jose Bautista in the starting lineup. When Lind is in the lineup he either is the DH or must play LF. In the case of left field Travis Snider is in right, which means Wells must cover an area the size of Algonquin Park. Bautista has become their best bet defensively in right field. He’s better even if Joe Inglett gets healthy again. If Lind moves to first base over the winter there would be room for Ruiz as a platoon DH and bench player as an emergency outfielder or Millar-like first baseman.
Q: Hi Richard,
Let's say in a wildly altruistic move, Vernon Wells decides to option out of his contract so he can play for a team in the playoff hunt, or close to home or just wants to get rid of the criticism. Would the player's union allow him to do that? At the least, wouldn't they advise him not to opt out? I know their concern is for their players to make top dollar.
Kevin Layman, St. John's
A:You never know. Vernon said that peace of mind and personal happiness are worth more than any amount of money. If he has two bad years between now and 2011 there would be no market for him as a free agent but, on the other hand, by that time his life at the Rogers Centre may be so miserable he might want out no matter what. If he has two great years, he may want a fresh start and may feel like he can still get a pretty good deal somewhere close to home or with a contender. It is possible he could opt out. I don’t think any of us mortals would given the amount of money he would be leaving on the table.
The players’ union would surely advise him not to opt out. Their concern is not so much for Vernon making top dollar as it is for future players earning top dollar and if one of their marquee contracts is torn up and replaced just because a player wants to be happy, what kind of a precedent does that set? Choosing happiness over money? What ever happened to the “American way?”
At much lower numbers, catcher Darrin Fletcher was always hearing about it from the Players Association because he took deals with the Expos and then the Jays that he was happy with when the union said he could earn more. But they didn’t block his decision. They just didn’t like it.
Click here to send Richard a question, and he'll answer a selection in his mailbag Wednesdays in this space. **Note: please follow the link above to send a question to Richard. Questions posted in the comments section may not make it to the mailbag. Thanks.**
Richard, Have recently been corresponding with a young man who is EXTREMELY knowledgeable and who has a myriad of statistics at his fingertips.
It is his considered opinion that John McDonald is a mediocre fielder and 'the worst hitter in baseball'. If his assessment is accurate, why would anyone WANT to sign JM? He buttresses his argument by pointing out that no one picked up McDonald at the trade deadline.
Are my eyes deceiving me? Is Johnny Mac really that bad or has my young friend mis-read his OPS BS?
Also, what about Buck Coats? Why was he not called up? Is he the Jays cf of the future?
Posted by: Erc | September 23, 2009 at 01:14 PM
No offence Richard, but this "new playoff format" you created is ay more confusing than it needs to be, I had to draw out a flow chart just to understand it - and I'm a statistician.
I'm also completely against byes. It's not an advantage at all in baseball as it would be in Football or Hockey to rest injuries.
There are only two options, keep it at 4 teams per league, or go to 8, and shorten the regular season so the playoffs won't need to be played in domes.
Since baseball doesn't like change, I see it staying at 4 for many years to come - until the next expansion, that is.
Posted by: Alberto White | September 23, 2009 at 01:32 PM
With regards to Vernon Wells, I couldn't care less if he bats .400 and hits 10 home runs to close out the season.
He always gets hot when the Jays are out of contention.
If the Jays are ever going to accomplish anything, they need him to produce when it matters, i.e. 2 games out in June and heading Fenway Park .
Posted by: Gary | September 23, 2009 at 01:46 PM
Always enjoy your blog Richard but I disagree about wanting to redo the format in baseball. I know a lot of people have thought about this due to the lack of pennant races this year, but honestly this season is an abberation and you will never have a perfect system. In the last ten years I can recall plenty of exciting playoff races that came right down to the final weekend. More than anything else, baseball needs to think about redoing it's economic system in the next CBA. If there were more competitive balance economically, the penant races would be exciting each year. Also, why add more rounds to the playoffs?? I've always thought that's one advantage baseball had over basketball/hockey, the playoffs are short, exciting and over with in a month tops. I know some people that don't even watch baseball until october and even they admit they love watching the playoffs. I like both hockey and basketball but unless the right teams are in it, by june i've had enough.
Posted by: William | September 23, 2009 at 02:41 PM
Richard. Do you really think that Scutaro would garner that amount of money for 2 years. He is 34 I think and never been more than a backup his whole career. I was thinking he might get 4 million a year for 2 years. I don't see how he would go the Yankees. No playing time there at short.
Posted by: Ken | September 23, 2009 at 03:56 PM
Erc,
Previously, your posts used to indicate that you didn't know much about baseball. Now you're posts indicate you're annoying and childish. How many different posts need to ask you to calm down before you get a clue that no one wants to read your post.
On the topics of shortstops - Richard, I'm curious if the injury to Scutaro presents an opportunity for the Jays to bring up Angel Sanchez. It seems that McDonald is gone after this year, so why not see if Sanchez can be a backup infielder. Or is it too late to add someone to the 40 man?
I thought he and Coats looked pretty good in the game at Wrigley this year and it seems odd to play so many veterans in a lost season. I'd like to start to get an idea of what might be coming. Judging by attendance, other fans in Toronto aren't too interested in seeing the same old retreads either.
Posted by: LindFan | September 23, 2009 at 04:29 PM
Erc,
I see you're doing your standard bit to contribute to the discussion. I guess that in the last thread, the chorus of calls for you to add something to the conversation fell on deaf ears. Too bad. It's not too bad that you didn't hear the call - it's too bad that you have so little to do in life that you find pestering someone you've never met to be worth your while.
Richard, hasn't Pastornicky passed Jackson as the shortstop of the future? Pastornicky has the speed and eye to be the leadoff hitter the Jays haven't had in ages. Plus, he's younger than Jackson and by all accounts outplayed Jackson in the brief time Pastornicky spent in Dunedin.
Posted by: mike | September 23, 2009 at 04:41 PM
Richard, 2 weeks back you called for a line-up that included Ruiz at 1B and Arencibia behind the plate.
Now it is Overbay at 1st and Chavez / Barajas at catcher. Why the change? Did Arencibia comment as much as that other poster indicated or is something else behind your change of opinion?
Posted by: ABC | September 23, 2009 at 04:52 PM
Hi Richard,
I like your alignment, but why the bye in playoffs? I think baseball was at it's best back in the 2 division format prior to the wildcard. Let the best team from each season make the playoffs.
I think the recent emphasis on the playoffs being the only important achievement have made baseball much less interesting. I grew up in Chicago, so maybe I'm biased, but missing the playoffs most years and knowing that you're never going to win the World Series didn't stop everyone in that city from being a die-hard fan. I get more fun out of focusing on the single game rather than the whole season.
It really seems to be unique to a few teams in North American sports. In European soccer, some teams are happy when they avoid relegation, some happy with mid-table, etc. You've also got college football where some teams are happy with top 10, some with top 25, and some with a .500 record.
Fans are really fickle in some baseball markets and it seems to take away from the atmosphere for a large portion of the season.
Posted by: josef s | September 23, 2009 at 05:11 PM
Mike, You're right . Enough pestering. You may be right about McDonald and Wells, too. Time will tell.
Coats? You brought him up first. Can Jays management be blind enough not to bring up a good young outfielder when Bautista is considered their best defensive outfielder at the corners? Either they have screwed up big time, he needs more seasoning or he has some holes in his game. In your opinion, which is it?
Posted by: Erc | September 23, 2009 at 07:29 PM
Lindfan, No one but you apparently. Don't do me any more favors. Can live without your wit and maturity, thanks just the same. Looking forward to your pearls of baseball wisdom. Questions are good on this blog. Enjoy RG's writing. Comment section is often non-existent, almost. Hopefully, that's where you come in.
Good point that fans would like to see prospects instead of the usual suspects, but not exactly ground-breaking.
Posted by: Erc | September 24, 2009 at 05:02 AM
There are two other drawbacks of expanding the postseason that I forgot to mention. Firstly, as some people have alluded to, byes are totally useless in baseball and actually put the team at a disadvantage (see 2006 Detroit Tigers, 2007 Colorado Rockies), baseball players are creatures of habit, they play every day for 6 months and then to stop for a week and pick it up again they loose that timing and sharpness that you get from playing everyday. Secondly is expanding the season would have a reverse effect on the top teams in terms of fan interest, under your scenerio the Yanks, Dodgers, Phillies, and Cardinals all would have virtually been assured a postseason spot from at least 6 weeks ago. For all those teams the rest of the regular season would become mundane and they would only rekindle interest in the team again as the playoffs came close. You loose that excitment when you basically clinch so early. Keep it the way it is, and fight hard in the next CBA negotiations for more economic parity.
Posted by: William | September 24, 2009 at 10:15 AM
LindFan - I'm surprised that you brought up Sanchez. He doesn't get much mention at all, but his numbers this year look really good.
Personally, I think his numbers this year were largely inflated by playing in Las Vegas. Also, the Jays just told Ken Joyce he won't be back next year, so they probably don't think too much of what he's instilling in the Vegas hitters.
Erc - what groundbreaking information have you brought to the fore? I'm guessing you never even heard of Sanchez before LindFan posted about him. If that's the case, it's rather odd of you to put him down for not adding anything. If you have heard of Sanchez, please enlighten us with your information about him (I won't hold my breath as I know insults are your sweet spot, not knowledge).
Posted by: 51s Fan | September 24, 2009 at 11:54 AM
I ask this in all sincerity and not meaning to sound mean - if John McDonald was named Miguel Martinez, was from Puerto Rico and didn't speak much English, would there be even remotely as much of a push to get him at bats? I honestly feel that people love McDonald the person (understandably - he seems like a good guy) and are willing to overlook the fact that he is barely at the level of a Double-A hitter.
Posted by: Stanley | September 24, 2009 at 02:53 PM
51 cent Fan, Not putting him down, that's his schtick. Just saying that wanting to see young players instead of fill-ins isn't unique to LindFan.
Never heard of Sanchez and may never hear of him again, apparently. Maybe what happens in Vegas should just stay in Vegas.
Posted by: Erc | September 24, 2009 at 07:03 PM
Stanley, I don't think it's McDonald's race, so much as it is the memory of what he did a few years ago. McDonald is like the defensive version of Joe Carter. Joe hardly belonged in the majors his last 3 years in the Toronto, but we stuck through with him because of what he did in 92 and 93. I think we're a loyal bunch for those that deliver and have charisma and I don't think that's a bad thing.
Posted by: 51s Fan | September 24, 2009 at 09:11 PM
A lot of you guys obviously do your homework. You know a great deal about the Jays and their prospects (bleak as they may be).
It's just when you say things like John McDonald is just an average fielder and Vernon Wells is a bad one, it damages your credibility.
There are a lot of things the Jays need -- a reliable closer, a no.2 pitcher, pretty soon a no.l pitcher as well, a first baseman and/or dh with some pop, another good outfielder and maybe even a little team speed. This team leaves a lot of men on base partly because of poor situational hitting but also because they can't or won't manufacture a run when they need one.
I give full marks to Cito. He's a vast improvement over guys that had to dance to JP'S tune. He gave Lind a chance and some good hitting advice when it appeared he would be ruined by lack of both. I do wish though, that sometimes he'd start a runner or two.
Baseball today is as stodgy and station-to-station as it was in the 50's and the Jays could be its poster boys. Bill James didn't invent the three-run homer, Casey Stengel did and his son, Earl Weaver made sure it stuck.
Nothing wrong with working the count etc., etc. but have to admire a guy like Walt Alston who came out of the Money Ball 50's, found a career minor leaguer with million dollar wheels and turned him loose. Whitey-ball and Billy-ball followed, as did Lou Brock, Tim and Rickey.
Hope the Jays take some of your research to heart and really hope it translates into better major league ball in Toronto cause I don't watch much 'AA'. I don't know how things are on the farm, but would like to know if Travis will finish his career with stats closer to Mickey Mantle or Dave Nicholson.
Keep researching guys. Theo Epstein can't live forever. Just hope the result of your efforts comes to more than 'we need better defense in center.' Night.
Posted by: Erc | September 24, 2009 at 10:05 PM
51s Fan, This blog is not a big part of my life, like I guess it is to you. It seemed a little quiet and staid. Guess you prefer it that way.
The resident blogger doesn't have to rein me in or banish me. It appears that your proper decorum approach is in the mainstream. Sorry, I thought I was at a ball game, not the library.
You can research it all you want, but major league baseball in this city isn't wildly entertaining and there are even bigger reasons and uncultured blogs and JP.
Posted by: Erc | September 25, 2009 at 10:06 AM
@51s Fan - what did McDonald do a few years ago? He hit .290 over 90-something at bats at age 30 with an atrocious .323 slugging (he had 27 hits - 24 singles and 3 doubles). That's it. He's already 34 years old. He's way overpaid.
Posted by: Stanley | September 25, 2009 at 12:21 PM
I think Cito has been horrible this year and I hope it is his last in Toronto.
Hill and Lind have done well, but if we're going to give him credit for that, then blame must go to Cito for Wells, Rios, and Snider. Add in the inexcusable use of Millar starting in the clean-up spot for almost 10% of the games this year, playing McDonald in LF, extremely questionable late-game strategies, and on, and on, and I'm very surprised that Cito has defenders.
The Jays have one of the worst records in baseball in one-run games and also have a manager who refuses to do anything in late-innings. Coincidence? I think not.
I'm not saying this team would be contending if we had another manager, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jays at least as a .500 team - after all, they have managed to score more runs than they allow this season, which usually indicates that you should be able to win more than you lose.
Posted by: 51s Fan | September 25, 2009 at 02:09 PM
I didn't realize there were still people who felt Vernon was a decent centerfielder. It seems like this may be a loaded question here, but Erc, what is it about Wells that makes you think he's a decent centerfielder?
From my eyes, he looks a lot like Bernie Williams did in his last few years in New York. Most all of the impartial analysis and discussion that I've read also comes to this conclusion. Whether it's the % of balls into his zone that he gets to, the % of balls out of his zone that he gets to, or observational comments, Vernon seems to consistently rank in the bottom of the league. To pick two examples (one observational, one statistical) ...
Tom Tango (works for the Mariners) in his defensive polling, shows Vernon to have been about the 20th best defensive centerfielder in the league in 2008 according to general consensus. Just about everyone would agree that 31 year olds get worse year-to-year, so I'd expect him to come in around 25-30 this year.
RZR, which is a rating of how many balls a player gets to that are hit in his zone, shows Vernon as the 3rd worst centerfielder in baseball this year (ahead of Ellsbury and McCutcheon). Vernon used to be pretty good at this, ranking around the top 10 just a few years ago. RZR can be pretty volatile year-to-year, so it may not be the greatest statistic, but Vernon hasn't been above average in this for a few years now, so it clearly shows he's worse than average.
I don't know why this is surprising, studies show that a player's defense generally peaks around age 24-27 and then begins a pretty big drop-off, especially once they hit 30. Vernon would have to be the exception to the rule to still be a quality centerfielder, and given his body type and the turf at Rogers Center, I think it'd be hard to make a case for him to age better than almost all centerfielders before him.
Posted by: VW | September 25, 2009 at 02:43 PM
Stanley, in 2007, McDonald was over 5 RAR, which is incredibly impressive, particularly at shortstop in only half a season. His offense, I agree, has, and always will, be pathetic, but his defense a few years ago was outstanding.
Posted by: 51s Fan | September 25, 2009 at 03:35 PM
Erc, I'm done directing anything your way after this post, as clearly you're not interested in talking baseball like just about everyone on her.
How can you claim that this blog is less important to you than others, when every 3 or 4 posts on here is from you? Clearly you find this blog more important than just about everyone else because you constantly post on here.
VW - nice summary. I think a lot of people forget what the comparison group truly is for centerfielders. There are so many good athletes at that position that the bar for being decent is set very high. Just being more athletic than anyone else on your team is clearly not good enough.
Posted by: mike | September 25, 2009 at 03:40 PM
Mike, Sometimes stuff happens. You will be missed but I'll try to fill the void. Have fun. That's what baseball's all about. Though you do have to remember one of the great movie lines of all times when the Tom Hanks character told his gal player " There's no crying in baseball". Of course, he was old school.....
When a pitcher knocked Mays down, he didn't charge the mound, he got back up and played the game. Maybe Marichal knocked the pitcher down next inning, cause everyone had to come to bat back then.
Wonder what Mays would hit today when he could dive out to get that pitch on the outside corner and hit a maybe tighter knit baseball with a smaller strike zone playing on a smaller baseball field?
If Bill James taught us anything, it's that stats are relative. A .302 average isn't the same in Fenway as the old Astrodome and it isn't the same in 1963 as it is in 2009.
I know you haven't read any of this, but I really do appreciate the time and effort you guys put into your research. You are Jay fans extraordinaire and maybe even baseball fans as well. G'bye Mike.
Posted by: Erc | September 26, 2009 at 11:17 AM
VW, Maybe what makes Wells seem like a good cf to me is Snider or Lind in left and Bautista or Snider in right.lol.
I've seen him pick a ball or two off the cf fence this year. He seems to charge ground ball decently and as someone pointed out, he doesn't fumble em, his arm is still decent, he hustles (watched him slide and cut off a ball to right-centre a couple of weeks ago that would have gone to the wall without a good effort by Wells).
As we all know by now, I don't watch enough ball games anymore to rate where he fits into today's cf defensive pantheon. I've only been trying to suggest, if you or Mike try to to it, you better watch a LOT of games because defensive stats are not definitive, to say the least.
Again, maybe he just looks good because of the other defensive stiffs Cito has to trot out in right and left. What about Coats? Would he fill the bill and let em move Wells to right (cause with his contract they're not gonna sit him. Modern Baseball Economics, ain't it grand?)
I like the fact that you're averaging defensive stats over a few years and coupling it with personal observation (although it would be a lot more valid if you were an advance scout who watched a LOT of games). You are building a decent case against Vern, but in the final analysis, it's gonna be OPINION.
Always liked Bill James because, unlike say, the Elias Sports Bureau, he tried to get a statistical grip on baseball without squeezing the life out of it.
Anyway, he says regarding defensive range at ss (hello Johnny Mac) " How many ground balls does an outstanding shortstop make a play on that an average shortstop would not get. I don't know the answer to that and neither does anyone esle....".
James being James, he goes on to offer an opionion but lists a number of factors that could skewer the raw numbers. Same criterea and limitations would apply to cf.
What I'm saying is this .... Ashburn always seemed to record more put outs in center than Mays. Was it because Philly had a lot of fly ball pitchers, Mays had better left and right fielders, something else or Ashburn actually WAS a better center fielder?
Who knows? Probably only a couple dozen guys on this site.lol.
Posted by: Erc | September 26, 2009 at 12:06 PM