Jays Need More for Halladay Than ESPN Says

The Roy Halladay deal, if it goes down as outlined by several sources, is not enough of a return for the Jays and the best pitcher in baseball to make it worthwhile.

The pieces are coming together:

The Jays will be sending Halladay plus $6 mllion (all figures U.S.) to the Phillies.

The Phillies will send Cliff Lee to the M's and Kyle Drabek (RHP), Travis D'Arnaud (c) and Michael Taylor (of) to the Jays. The Jays will turn Taylor around to the A's for Brett Wallace (1B/3B). The M's will send Phillippe Aumont and Tryson Gillies to the Phillies. Play Ball!

The Phillies' front-office smarts are being cast in doubt from a segment of their fan-base asking why they would be simply switching Cy Young hurlers in the mega-swap with the Jays and the M's while also giving up an armload of top prospects to the Jays, receiving just two in return.

The answer lies in the simple fact that Halladay is a significantly better pitcher than Lee and will be with them for a significantly longer time. Plus, if the Jays are indeed paying $6 million this year towards Halladay's contract, Doc = Cliff in cost at least for next year. That's a bonus.

The following is a brief, but telling Tale of the Tape in support of the Good Doctor.

Please don't bring up the issue of money. If it's not your money that's paying players and the organization isn't whining about cost, you shouldn't care. Fans should care simply about on-field results for the team they are purchasing tickets to see. That's it, that's all. If you must deal a player because you don't have financial resources, just make sure that you have replacements from the farm or in trade.

Halladay: 32-years-old, 6-6, 225 lbs; 148-76, 3.43 ERA lifetime. A healthy Halladay with a vesting option for 2014, would give the Phillies 1,200 innings for the next five years.

Lee: 31-years-old, 6-3, 190 lbs; 90-53, 3.97 ERA lifetime. Lee, signed through 2010, will give the M's about 220 innings, plus yield two June '11 compensation draft picks, next season.

Here are a couple of more Halladay-Lee comparisons of significance demonstrating Doc's better chances of helping his team to a World Series victory for the second time in three years.

Against the big boys of the AL East, the Red Sox and the Yankees: Halladay is 32-20, with a 3.59 ERA in 516-2/3 innings. Lee is 6-8, with a 4.69 ERA in 107.1 innings.

But against the sad-sack Kansas City Royals combined with the generally lighter-hitting lineups of the National League: Lee is 31-11, with a 3.65 ERA in 359-2/3 innings. Halladay is 26-11, with a 2.90 ERA in 322-1/3 innings. Doc's had stiffer career competition and excelled.

In the World Series last year, manager Charlie Manuel was unwilling to match his starting ace, Lee, up on three days rest because he had never done it before in his career. Halladay is 4-2, with a 2.79 ERA in six starts on short rest, averaging seven innings per outing. If the situation arises again in 2010, you know Halladay will be taking the ball and matching up against the opponent's ace on short rest.

Let's analyze the Jays trade return for the Jays and the impact or non-impact each player will have in terms of arrival date at the Rogers Centre with the major-league club.

Drabek, 22, clearly has a bigger upside than J.A. Happ. But the son of former Cy Young winner with the Pirates, Doug Drabek, is still considered to be a year away. He is coming off Tommy John surgery in 2007. No help for the 2010 Jays' rotation.

D'Arnaud, 20, is more of a defender at this point than he is an offensive threat and is still a few years away. With the Jays' re-signing of Raul Chavez to a minor-league deal, the signings of John Buck and Ramon Castro as free agents and the presence of highly-regarded backstops J.P. Arencibia and Brian Jeroloman high up in the system, the inclusion of the third man D'Arnaud in the Halladay deal it's like the mayor of Newcastle getting a great deal on more coal and thinking it's a good idea.

As for the late addition (does that make it a four-way?) of the former Cards' second-ranked Baseball America prospect, Wallace is a corner infielder with a potent bat. He's not a corner outfielder with good speed as Taylor, the guy that passed through from the Phillies on the way to the A's was.

Wallace is going to be in the 2010 Jays' lineup. If he plays third base, what do they do with Edwin Encarnacion? If he plays first base, what do they do with Lyle Overbay? Neither crisis is a deal-breaker because even a dump of one of the corner guys will save the Jays a little money.

But what it does mean is that the young Jays' starters are on their own, with a Top 2, right now, of Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum. The Jays' clubhouse should include a shrine to Tommy John.

Comments

[JT]

Agreed Richard. There are simply too many different reports and scenarios around to get an accurate assessment of what is going on. The M's seem to be giving up way too little in 2 prospects for Lee in any scenario.

I am waiting and hoping to see if someone like a Downs, Accardo, and/or Overbay might be involved as it may net the Jays more prospects and shed salary at the same time. If they are stripping down the team for 2010 (with stop gaps at SS, C), they might as well do a good job and maximize the return of prospects and tank in the standings.. err.. I mean develop and retool so they can draft higher in June 2011.

And what happened to trying to get a legit SS prospect?
D'Arnaud makes no sense to me because like you said, similar development stage as the Jays other 2-3 catching prospects. They need someone to catch now but it looks like they've conceded that considering ESPN reports they signed C Ramon Castro to 1 yr $1mil deal.

[Jack]

If the Jays don't get the players you mentioned and got what ESPN has reported, then AA failed in his first big time trade. What to expect from him in the future is more of the same?

[smokes 09]

Richard, how is it that ESPN and other American media outlets still seem to receive information ahead of its Canadian baseball counterparts. It made sense (yet terribly insulting) when J.P. was around but AA has got to start showing folks like yourself, Bob Elliot amd Jeff Blair a lot more respect. I agree with your point - the deal can't be for these three players; he should at least walk away with one of Aumont or Happ in addition to these three to make this deal remotely respectable.

[Isaac]

Richard,

a) If the jays were never going to get that package that they requested in July, then it doesnt matter what they requested back then - fact is they couldnt get it.

b) Ive read some philly blogs which state they cant believe they gave up 3 solid prospects, including a future ace, for what amounts to be a lesser prospect in aumont, and a marginal upgrade in halladay from lee, and also who is older (whos kidding who, obviously doc is superior, just their view)

c) The jays addressed 3 of 4 needs (only SS isnt addressed) in this trade.

4) they wouldnt be able to trade him in july, so its either this or 2 sandwich picks in the draft next year

5) They get him out of the division, while at the same time accomodating the best pitcher in franchise history who has been so good to them.

I give the deal a solid 9/10 - could they have got more? who really knows. But I think they did as well as they could reasonably do.

[Nesan Thambi]

I completely agree with Richard. The other worst think also reported that Jays are giving $6M in this deal. If that true, this will be a very bad trade I can remember. Jays should not have allowed Halladay and his agents to talk to Phillies before finalize the right package. I strongly believe the Angels' package with Saunders, Aybar/Wood, Nappoli, and Pujols was best and Jays were in very good position to demand more from Angels since Lacky agreed deal with RedSox. I understand that Halladay prefers Phillies over Angels but Halladay also must have considered the best interest of his former club where he pitched past 12 seasons and the fans who were always behind him for all his sucess.

[Cam J]

csnphilly.com just reporting on their website that Halladay has signed an extension with the Phillies as of 11:13am so this deal is one step closer to being done

[RenegadeDA]

So the trade goes from embarrassing to decent if the Jays make out with another B prospect in a reliever? Okay....

[PhillyFriar]

With all due respect, I think you're overestimating the leverage that Anthopoulos has here. Halladay has a full no trade clause and he's indicated that he prefers Philadelphia, and the Yankees and Red Sox are pretty much out of the running at this point anyway. That Anthopoulos looks to have found a way to get 90% of the value that Ricciardi turned down in July, when he was in a far better bargaining position, is an impressive piece of work by the young GM, in my opinion.

[Peter D]

Aumont and Gillies are C prospects, you are out of your mind. Both Drabek and Taylor are much, much better prospects.

[david]

i dont agree, just because amount is canadian doesnt mean the jays need him.
jays got 3 of the top 5 prospects in the phillies stacked system. they did really well for them selves, compare that to the package phi is getting for lee. or even the original trade for lee from cleveland.

jays targeted quality over quantity and seems to me they got it.

[Nick]

It's a worse package than the ones discussed in July because those deals were non-starters. JP was asking for too much. I think it's a good deal. Halladay, either way, was leaving Toronto. For AA to grab three of the Phillies top 4 prospects with very little leverage on his side is a job well done in my books. Added to this is that Drabek projects better than Happ and the Phillies seemed totally unwilling to part with him in the Summer. Of course it's difficult to see a player and a man like Roy Halladay leave under any circumstances, but that's the reality.

[Braden]

What? Richard, this haul is so much more impressive than the one you published last night (Happ and Aumont plus one). Drabek is a much better prospect than Aumont and Happ is a mid-rotation starter in the AL at best.

[Jays Fan]

You are soo right Richard! It's funny how the American media paints such a horrible picture for the Jays. Here's hoping that Beeston steps in and helps Alex to put together a worthy package of prospects.

- Jays Fan

[Mark]

I don't know Griff. I see where you're coming from, but Taylor and Drabek are top prospects of the caliber that could seriously contribute to this team in a few years. According to most scouts, Taylor projects as a clean-up hitter on a WS team, and Drabek is a legit two-spot starter. Those are the kind of prospects you can build a team around, especially when you're looking at a 2-3-4-5 of Hill, Lind, Snider, Taylor. Sure it'd be nice to get Aumont, but I think it's reaching.

And JA Happ in the AL Beast? Not something I want to see after the streak of luck he had in 2009 (check his BABIP and FIP.)

[Martin Kuehn]

Jays got 2 of baseball´s top 25 prospects for one year Halladay... An A prospect in Drabek and a at least a B in Taylor.... as well as a good cathing prospect! I count 3 prospects and not the 4 the Jays wanted in Summer but there wasn´t a big market outside for Halladay. NY refused to give us Montero and one of the pitchers and the deal with the Angels...well, we would have got 2 Major League ready players... but i like this trade more!
Very good Job of AA... No market, but good return!

[Peter D]

Aumont is a reliever, he should not be the centerpiece of anything.

[A]

Not sure why everyone is so high on Dominic Brown over Michael Taylor. I understand Brown is 2 years younger, but Taylor's numbers in the minors (1153 AB/.312 AVG/.898 OPS/45 HR/205 RBI/44 SB) are far superior to Brown (1429 AB/ .288 AVG/.797 OPS/28 HR/164 RBI/72 SB) - and he's carried it through to the AAA level, making him seemingly further along in his development.

[J Matt]

Richard, they could not get Drabek in the summer. This is why Doc was still here. Do you recall??

Brown and Taylor have little difference, both 5 tool guys. Seems the power is stronger for Taylor and the other 4 tools are stronger for Brown.

Happ is overrated badly. The NL line-ups that will allow Doc to dominate even more so in the NL, than here, are the same line-ups that allowed Happ to go 13-4. Happ does not dominate. Watch him pitch. He fools people. As David Wells said after his failures in Boston and move to SD toward the end of his career "you can't fool the Yankees" Happ is the type of starter that fools hitters. Also he looked good in the playoffs in relief seeing the line-ups once.

This is a good deal. They received quality. History says you were going to complain no matter the return.

[Lisa Craig]

With all due respect, you know nothing of the Phillies farm system. If the deal for Halladay includes Drabek, Taylor, and D'Arnaud, you are getting the Phillies top prospects and a significant part of our future. Furthermore, the Phillies sent four prospects to Cleveland in July for Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco. We are now trading Cliff Lee to Seattle and the Phillies have a right to expect a decent return. Unfortunately, their prospects aren't as good as the ones that Toronto is getting from us. You didn't think this out at all, did you????

[Jonathan]

The trade, whether it includes Aumont being moved to the Blue Jays, demonstrates how far off you were in your assessment Dec. 1 when you wrote:

"The Jays were better off trading in July. Not true . . . If all you want is prospects, mid-season is great. But the Jays need a pitcher and a position player ready right now and no contending team will give up those guys in July. They usually need them to contend."

Last July, the Jay could offer Halladay to a contender for the stretch run, a full season and a window to negotiate an extension. That first benefit was lost by waiting until the winter and this trade shows that truth plainly. Not only are the Jays only getting only good but not great prospects, they are also going to have to pay the Phillies a good chunk of Halladay's salary this year -- $6 million has been reported elsewhere though that's not confirmed.

Halladay performance last year (and the year before) was worth $33 million according to the wins-above-replacement formula. One-third of that is $11 million -- that's how much extra value the Jays could have cashed in last year had they traded Halladay at the trade deadline. And that's a conservative estimate since the last two months plus post-season is arguably worth more than one-third of a player's value.

Had the Jays made the trade last summer, they would be paying nothing to offset Halladay's salary and would have likely brought back a stronger group of prospects.

I'm not blaming JP; I understand the limits placed on him by ownership. But it was clear last summer not trading him was a mistake. Perhaps that clarity is becoming apparent to you too.

[Jays fan in NC]

Are you just saying that the jays should get the other guys because of where they are from? PA is a bust already at best he will be a closer. Taylor and Drabek are much closer to the Majors then anyone that Philly is getting (prospects). O and by the way the GM that was running things back in July sucked and he got nothing for Roy. So how can you compare what MIGHT have been on the table to what is there now.

[Rob]

I am not sure how you view this trade as 'embarrassing' for the Jays? They receive 2 very good prospects in Drabek and Taylor and get a better catching prospect then Arencibia. The Mariners are only giving up Aumont, Gilles and Ramirez for Cliff Lee who posted very good numbers last year. Those 3 prospects are not much making the Jays return that much better. I agree in that I would love Aumont or even the speedy Gilles to be included but I am happy with the current deal.

[jay]

So basically Richard, you're saying Drabek, Taylor, Aumont is is decent deal and Drabek, Taylor and D, Arnaud is embarrassing.

So you'd take a relied pitcher with arm troubles over a potential solid catcher to make an embarrassing deal into a decent one? THATS your criteria? You missed the mark.

[david]

Griffen gotta disagree with you.
Jays did very well here. Keeping roy wasnt going to help the team, would 2 picks be worth it who were years away?
not only did the jays get top prospects, they got top prospects who are ready to contribute. drabek and taylor could start the year in the bigs but likely will comeup midseason.
and although this shouldnt matter Roy has been a professional in his career with the jays, and the jays are sending him to the team of his wish. Ecstatic for Roy and good on the jays for doing so. hopefully that good karma.

[gfd]

Jays gave away Halladay for prospects.The best pitcher in the AL WAS HAD FOR PITTINS!!