Jays Need More for Halladay Than ESPN Says

The Roy Halladay deal, if it goes down as outlined by several sources, is not enough of a return for the Jays and the best pitcher in baseball to make it worthwhile.

The pieces are coming together:

The Jays will be sending Halladay plus $6 mllion (all figures U.S.) to the Phillies.

The Phillies will send Cliff Lee to the M's and Kyle Drabek (RHP), Travis D'Arnaud (c) and Michael Taylor (of) to the Jays. The Jays will turn Taylor around to the A's for Brett Wallace (1B/3B). The M's will send Phillippe Aumont and Tryson Gillies to the Phillies. Play Ball!

The Phillies' front-office smarts are being cast in doubt from a segment of their fan-base asking why they would be simply switching Cy Young hurlers in the mega-swap with the Jays and the M's while also giving up an armload of top prospects to the Jays, receiving just two in return.

The answer lies in the simple fact that Halladay is a significantly better pitcher than Lee and will be with them for a significantly longer time. Plus, if the Jays are indeed paying $6 million this year towards Halladay's contract, Doc = Cliff in cost at least for next year. That's a bonus.

The following is a brief, but telling Tale of the Tape in support of the Good Doctor.

Please don't bring up the issue of money. If it's not your money that's paying players and the organization isn't whining about cost, you shouldn't care. Fans should care simply about on-field results for the team they are purchasing tickets to see. That's it, that's all. If you must deal a player because you don't have financial resources, just make sure that you have replacements from the farm or in trade.

Halladay: 32-years-old, 6-6, 225 lbs; 148-76, 3.43 ERA lifetime. A healthy Halladay with a vesting option for 2014, would give the Phillies 1,200 innings for the next five years.

Lee: 31-years-old, 6-3, 190 lbs; 90-53, 3.97 ERA lifetime. Lee, signed through 2010, will give the M's about 220 innings, plus yield two June '11 compensation draft picks, next season.

Here are a couple of more Halladay-Lee comparisons of significance demonstrating Doc's better chances of helping his team to a World Series victory for the second time in three years.

Against the big boys of the AL East, the Red Sox and the Yankees: Halladay is 32-20, with a 3.59 ERA in 516-2/3 innings. Lee is 6-8, with a 4.69 ERA in 107.1 innings.

But against the sad-sack Kansas City Royals combined with the generally lighter-hitting lineups of the National League: Lee is 31-11, with a 3.65 ERA in 359-2/3 innings. Halladay is 26-11, with a 2.90 ERA in 322-1/3 innings. Doc's had stiffer career competition and excelled.

In the World Series last year, manager Charlie Manuel was unwilling to match his starting ace, Lee, up on three days rest because he had never done it before in his career. Halladay is 4-2, with a 2.79 ERA in six starts on short rest, averaging seven innings per outing. If the situation arises again in 2010, you know Halladay will be taking the ball and matching up against the opponent's ace on short rest.

Let's analyze the Jays trade return for the Jays and the impact or non-impact each player will have in terms of arrival date at the Rogers Centre with the major-league club.

Drabek, 22, clearly has a bigger upside than J.A. Happ. But the son of former Cy Young winner with the Pirates, Doug Drabek, is still considered to be a year away. He is coming off Tommy John surgery in 2007. No help for the 2010 Jays' rotation.

D'Arnaud, 20, is more of a defender at this point than he is an offensive threat and is still a few years away. With the Jays' re-signing of Raul Chavez to a minor-league deal, the signings of John Buck and Ramon Castro as free agents and the presence of highly-regarded backstops J.P. Arencibia and Brian Jeroloman high up in the system, the inclusion of the third man D'Arnaud in the Halladay deal it's like the mayor of Newcastle getting a great deal on more coal and thinking it's a good idea.

As for the late addition (does that make it a four-way?) of the former Cards' second-ranked Baseball America prospect, Wallace is a corner infielder with a potent bat. He's not a corner outfielder with good speed as Taylor, the guy that passed through from the Phillies on the way to the A's was.

Wallace is going to be in the 2010 Jays' lineup. If he plays third base, what do they do with Edwin Encarnacion? If he plays first base, what do they do with Lyle Overbay? Neither crisis is a deal-breaker because even a dump of one of the corner guys will save the Jays a little money.

But what it does mean is that the young Jays' starters are on their own, with a Top 2, right now, of Ricky Romero and Shaun Marcum. The Jays' clubhouse should include a shrine to Tommy John.

Comments

[Mark]

With respect.

Your team has next to NO leverage in this. Doc has final FINAL say so as to where he goes if you try to move him.

THAT will limit your available pool of return.

You should have traded him last summer.

Your current GM did a good job getting anything remotely close to actual value based on the LACK OF LEVERAGE he has had to deal with.

Fans want what they want but don't deal with the real situations that are facing the team. There is NO ONE else available to trade with that DOC would approve a trade to!

Simple.

[Bobbo]

Apparently the Jays will flip Taylor to the A's for Brett Wallace - A blue chip 1B/3B prospect expected to play this year. With Drabek, they get two solid young players in this deal with more depth at catcher.

If they get Wallace and as a result move Overbay, I like this deal. I think it's about as good as AA was going to get.

[Lee]

The Mariners became a part of this deal because the Phillies won't be able to afford both Halliday and Lee once Lee hits free agency after next season. Rather than play out the season with both, the Phillies have elected to give themselves more flexibility by trading for- and signing- one long term (Halliday) and trading the other while they could get best value for him (Lee). As we've seen with Halliday, the longer you wait, the less you can expect in return.

I agree it appears that the Phillies are essentially pulling off a two-part trade rather than a true three-team deal, but from what I've read they are doing it in this fashion because they want to make sure they end up with a Cy Young winner under contract long-term once the music stops.

As for the prospects involved, they're all unknowns at this stage- some might become perennial All-Stars or at least serviceable major leaguers, some might wash out of baseball with injuries and/or mediocre play after a couple of years- you just don't know.

As for who wins the trade, that involves too much crystal-ball gazing for this observer, but for the sake of argument, I tend to favour the team that gets the best player(s) in any deal. From that standpoint, the Phillies and Mariners look to be the hands-down winners, at least in the short term. The Jays end of the deal might look a lot better in 2-4 years, but that will depend on if the trade makes them better on the field or not, because there is no question that the Phillies and Mariners will be better with Halliday and Lee in their starting rotations.

[Dave in BG]

Let me be the first to say

Good Luck Doc, I know you will win 25+ next year!

[Brent]

Richard, you are hilarious. Last night you said the Jays got a good deal because we were getting Aumont. Now, because Aumont is apparently not in the deal, and instead we are getting Drabek, you say we are getting jobbed?

Do you know anything? Aumont's stock has dropped, he is was a relief pitcher last year in the minors, and he got rocked in double-A. This team doesnt need more relievers Richard.

[T Bellinger]

What about the approximate 8.75 million saved this year. Add what that buys to the trade assuming the Jays spend the money lol and you get a great deal.

[Rhia]

So I wonder what these savings are going to be used for. A pitcher, or just towards the kids’ raises. This change add up to the thrill. Can't wait any longer now. Thanks for the update. By the way, these cool giveaways will make you feel good. You deserve it because you're one cool sports fan!

[WillyFromPhilly]

The Phils were the only team standing. The Yanks traded away their top prospect, the Red Sox won't part with theirs, and the Angels always tease teams in trades. Be thankful for what you got in return. I saw d'Arnaud, he's going to be a god one. His offense is ahead of his defense, the opposite of what the writer says. And his defense is good, too.

[jabalong]

What a bunch of moaners, this is a very good deal. We aren't just getting any prospects here - Drabek, Taylor and D'Arnaud are the Phillies' top second, third and fourth prospects overall as rated recently by Baseball America. This is top quality talent! Imagine if a team came to the Jays asking for three of their four top prospects, Jays fans would be in an uproar. Well that's what we've just pried from Philadelphia. Baseball America hasn't released its top ten prospects in 2010 for the A's, but am assuming that he's right up there as well. Yes Halladay is one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he's also only got one year left on his contract, trade-veto rights and a very short list of teams he'll approve. So right off the bat the Jays are very limited. And if you're looking to add a major-league ready starter, then it's going to be a mediocre one, otherwise why would the Phillies make the trade? No, the point is to trade a chip like Halladay for prospects and in this regard the Jays have done very well, as they've virtually cleaned out the Phillies' top shelf. As for the prospects coming from the M's, I'll stick with the ones from the Phillies - specifically Drabek over Aumont. I like Taylor, but if it's a wash with Wallace and he can jump right in then great. And with D'Arnaud, who knows if our current two top catching prospects will pan out, so three is better than two, and if they all perform and there's a logjam, can always trade one. There would be no shortage of teams lining up to get one of these three catching prospects. I am very satisfied with this deal at this point, and would defer any final judgment on it for a few years until we see how these young players perform.

[Mike Ritchie]

Superstars for unknown, unproven prospects. This is the younger, cheaper and unlikely to ever win Jays, the new model for success. Let's face it folks, the glory days are gone and we are now Kansas City North. Unless the owners of the Jays can play the Yankees and Red Sox version of Money Ball, we are doomed to mediocrity. Having the biggest payrolls in the AL East don't buy the World Series, but it sure does buy your way into the post-season.

This team is in serious danger of becoming more and more irrelevant in the local marketplace.

[jabalong]

If there is one aspect of this that I'm unsure about, it isn't the main deal, but flipping Taylor for Wallace. Reading some of the Oakland news and blogs, it seems that the A's are not convinced he can play 3B, but only 1B. If so, where does that leave Lind - is he really going to be a DH forever? It also seems like the A's think Taylor might be able to crack the lineup in 2010 - if so, couldn't the Jays use an upgrade in the outfield more than another young 1B when we've already got Overbay, Lind and some young 1B prospects? I'm also worried that Taylor turns out to be a better player than Wallace. Not saying that he is, it's just a concern.

[What?!]

Looks like a shell game to me, and the Jays are the losers. Get used to hearing that a lot in 2010.

[Jack]

I'm with you on this one. To me, 3 prospects coming to us and having to pay the Phillies $6million for Doc is coming up short in my book. I think we should have also got one of the prospects sent to the Phillies by the Mariners. So in effect, a 4 or 1 prospect scenario plus the $6 million would have been more fair and balanced from a Blue Jay perspective.

As it stands, the Phillies got Halladay and 3 prospects plus $6million for Lee from 2 different teams while only giving up 3 prospects of their own. Wish our GM was as smart as their GM.

[brian]

Richard. I think that onre point you have not addressed is as follows: whether because of J.R. or not, Halladay hass said,in essence, "I will not resign with you; trade me and trade me now. "
I don't care what sport is involved( Vince Carter-hmmm?) At that point in time the Blue Jays had a weak bargaining position- they have to trade him and all the other teams know it.( Also not helped by the Yankees trade). A.A. was forced into a corner and had to take essentially whatever was the best of unsatisfactory offers.
Let's wait and see what the actual deal is and then wait for a couple of years to assess the trade. Remember, in their division, the jays were not likely to win with Doc because the amount of money for DHall and Wells eliminates the chance of getting a great # 2 starter or a hitter high in both average and power.( Now if they can get rid of Wells...hmmmm.) especially since their budget is roughly 40% of the Yanks or Sox.PS- Sometimes forgotten fact- Yankees NET Revenue is higher than Jays Gross Revenue!

[Stanley]

Drabek >>> Aumont
Wallace > Taylor

D'Arnaud is a better prospect than Jeroloman and possibly better all-around than Arencibia.

Well done AA.

[d]

Fans definitely have the right to care about the money Richard! Unless were the Yankees and have an unlimited budget then every Blue Jays fan should care how the money gets spent. This is the team I watch and cheer for, so yes I care very much how they spend thier money and how that directly affects the product on the field!!

The last thing the Jays need are more people in this city that don't care about this team. Which includes not caring about how they spend thier money.

[B McFarlane]

I have to disagree mildly about the asset return to the Jays. I think they got all that was there to be had. So, I'm confident these guys will help Toronto down the road.

Note "Toronto." Not "Montreal", as in the subconscious faux pas I heard coming out of you on some radio gig in the last couple of days. Like I fell off my chair I was shocked, just shocked.

Now, I'm waiting for you to refer to Doc as "Pedro", we all know that is inevitable. At least I haven't come across any more of your crocodile tears about the demise of the Expos.

Me, I'm amazed they lasted as long as they did in that town. It is not quite as stunning as your own survival posing as a journalist in this city.

[Ben Nicks]

Outstanding job by AA. I think Drabek and Wallace have a great chance of being cornerstones of this organization. D'Arnaud gives us more security at catcher, and while I really liked Taylor, it is much easier to find a quality outfielder than a power hitting firstbaseman. 3 years from now, I think this will go down as the trade that turned the Jays around.

[Steve Bratton]

Roy Halladay could have and would have been a Jay for life had ownership and the previous GM done their part. This guy gave the Jays everything he had plus home town discounts on two separate occasions during contract negotiations. Now we have three prospects in return for the best pitcher in baseball. With the dearly departed Ted Rogers out of the picture, the bean counters are now in charge along with their hand picked puppet Alex Anthopoulos. They let Marco Scutaro walk away and pick up Alex Gonzalez who hit .238 last season and is a career .247 hitter. The plus side is he's cheaper! We also pick up Royals cast off catcher John Buck another .235 hitter! Can you say toss the towel. Jays attendance should plummet next season to maybe 12,000 a game if they're lucky. The Rogers bean counters won't be making money so they'll put them up for sale again and tell me who would want to pick up this mess. Major League Baseball will leave Toronto in less than 5 years just as it did in Montreal.

[Terry Brown]

Not sure I understand Richard's comment about the money. Of course fans should care about the money. The Jays won't come out and say it, but they've now got $6 million LESS than they would have to go out and find decent players. Frankly, in the absence of a cap or meaningful revenue sharing, MLB is pretty much a joke anyway. I hate Toronto sports.

[Carole Ford]

This seems like an incredibly good deal for the Phillies

[Kyle]

how in the world can you knock this trade? the Jays now have a solid foundation for the future, Hill,Lind,Snider,Wallace...wow that gets me excited, add in the fact Kyle Drabek is an absolute beast im telling you guys he will be the Jays ace for a long time, its sad to see the best pitcher in the game to go but ill take this over the 2 sandwich draft picks we would of got if he stayed here. i give this trade 5 Stars!!! im already liking the new GM

[Damer]

What happened to 'embarrassing'? I read your blog religiously and I was dissapointed with your negativity. I like how you're a straight shooter but embarrassing really hit a nerve. Give these 3 a chance before you hang the new guy.