Jays mailbag: Why Lawrie needs some seasoning

In 15 months of the tenure of GM Alex Anthopoulos the Jays' farm system has rocketed through the ranks of major league teams according to Baseball America. That bodes well for the future, even if 2011 is likely to be another building year on the Jays' major-league diamond.

According to MLB.com and its own rating of 2011 prospects, among the game's catching futures, J.P. Arencibia ranks sixth; among righthand pitchers, Kyle Drabek ranks third; among second basemen (even though he's likely slated for third), Brett Lawrie ranks second and, finally, among shortstops, Adeiny Hechavarria ranks seventh.

Interesting to note that of those four ranked prospects, three were acquired by Anthopoulos.

In Baseball America's Prospects Handbook, which is an essential purchase for me as soon as it comes out every spring, the Jays' farm system for the five years from 2005-09 out of 30 MLB organizations, ranked 15-25-26-25-19. This year, they have moved into the Top 10, ranked fourth.

On to the mailbag.   

Q. Much has been made of the budgetary implications of the Vernon Wells deal for the Jays. However, the Jays have a lot of draft picks this year, and signing them appears to be a priority for A.A. What is the team's budget for signing its draft picks, and is the team going to use the Wells savings to partially offset the cost of signing its picks? If they plow a ton of money into signing all their picks, then I can tolerate their spending less on the major league club.
John Zingaro,
Caledon

A. At some point the Jays have to stop pleasing fans at AAA-Las Vegas, AA-Manchester, New Hampshire and A-Dunedin and start providing major-league entertainment for fans at the Rogers Centre. According to Anthopoulos, the budget for signing draft picks is always completely separate from the budget for the major-league payroll and the payroll budget is not a number, it's a concept. If that sounds like so much mumbo-jumbo don't blame the mailbag. Sure the Jays have a lot of draft picks and sure they want to sign them all and sure the Wells deal does free up some organization money, so sure it helps the Jays' big picture at all levels, but at some point they have to start doing things to help the big-league club, putting people in the R.C. seats. The thing about the June draft as an annual exercise is that with MLB's recommended slotting of bonuses, even if teams often have to go over slot, the Jays have a pretty good idea of how much the entire draft will cost them even without putting actual names to the drafting numbers. That's money already budgeted for. They must not forget the major league team is what drives the franchise; winning in Toronto is the goal for organizational success. Having a top minor-league system is great. Having a World Series winner is greater.

Q. Hi Richard.  What do you think John Farrell is thinking? The team has traded its opening day pitcher and all star centre fielder from last year.
Frank Corea,
Kamloops

A. Hopefully Farrell is thinking “It's not how you start, it's how you finish.” The Jays never announced it, but it's the common belief that Farrell has a three-year contract with the Jays. Farrell's previous expertise is in pitching and in that regard he has a talented young rotation and a deep veteran bullpen. That helps. It's the rest of it that will test his mettle. It will be an interesting spring with players learning different positions and guys trying to bounce back from off years, but the rookie manager does have an outstanding coaching staff that will help and by the end of the spring training, as the Jays see what they've got, you can ask that question again and it might be a different answer.
An interesting Jays' managerial note is that in 13 seasons since 1998, only Buck Martinez in 2001 and Farrell in 2011 have debuted as Jays managers on their first day of spring training. Jim Fregosi took over from Tim Johnson on St. Patrick's Day 1999. Carlos Tosca took over from Martinez in May of '02. John Gibbons took over from Tosca in July of '04 and Cito Gaston took over from Gibbons in May of 2009. The one common thread from Tosca to Farrell has been coach Brian Butterfield.

Q. Hey Richard. Does Brett Lawrie actually have a shot of making the team this year? I would imagine a lineup with Lawrie at 2B, Hill at 3B and Bautista in right is better than the alternative which would include Juan Rivera in the OF as an everyday player. Has A.A. hinted at anything?
Cornelius T,

Haliburton

A. Lawrie, the Langley, B.C., native, just turned 21 on Jan. 18 and has played just two pro seasons, making the AA Southern League all-star team as a second baseman. He has played his two professional seasons at that 2B position since being drafted 16th overall by the Brewers in 2009. Now the Jays, starting at the recent mini-camp at the Rogers Centre earlier in January, have begun Lawrie's conversion to third base. As a Team Canada amateur player and high school guy, Lawrie was mostly a catcher, but when he was drafted by the Brewers he was listed as 3B/C. They knew something. Ideally the Jays will not need to have Lawrie on the Opening Day roster, although that is his personal goal. At a completely new position and just turned 21, Lawrie needs at least a half-season of third base in the minors. But the bottom line is that the Jays are indeed better off with Bautista in right field. So they need a third baseman. As for the acquired outfielder Rivera, he is not the type of player that fits into the Jays' plans moving forward, 32 years old and under control for just one more year. Therefore, don't dismiss the probability that he and his $5.25 million contact for 2011 will be moved before the season starts. Anthopoulos would not be asking for much in return.

Q. In light of the recent Frank Francisco deal, can you shed some light on who goes where in the Jays bullpen. This acquisition coupled with the signings of Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch really look like A.A. has no confidence in some of the cheaper, younger Jays (Casey Janssen, David Purcey, Zach Stewart, Shawn Camp, and even Jason Frasor) stepping up and grabbing the ninth inning role.
Jason Sinnarajah,
San Francisco

A. Last season, in theory, it was Kevin Gregg closing, with Scott Downs and Frasor in the eighth, Camp and Purcey in the seventh and Brian Tallet, Janssen and the rest in the earlier roles. Those were simpler times. This year, if I was running the Jays' bullpen, heading to camp, I would have Francisco closing, with Rauch and Purcey in the eighth, Dotel, Camp and Frasor in the seventh and Janssen as my 3 to 6-outs middle-man. The biggest question mark in that group is Frasor, whose role has been diminished at a high price with all of the other bullpen acquisitions. I might look to replace him and his $3-plus million salary with a second lefthander behind Purcey. Zach Stewart will be given another season to develop in the minors and may be the homegrown closer of the future. They have short-term closer options in the meantime, even through 2012.  

Q. Hi Richard. I'm sure you'll have lots of questions or comments about Vernon Wells this week, but I'll add one more, just for fun. I have a sneaking suspicion that Vernon will have an enormous year for the Angels, and that may reflect playing the season on grass rather than turf. My question: How do you think the artificial turf at SkyDome (ok, Rogers Centre) has affected Vernon over the past couple of years, and will it make a difference?
Bryan Willis,
Vancouver

A. I agree that Vernon might have a monster year for the Angels in 2011, but it may have less to do with what's under his feet than what's at his side. Yes the turf at SkyDome (ok, Rogers Centre) was not advantageous to playing a spectacular centre field, but the new artificial surface of the last few years played more like real grass than its predecessor, although it still rewarded caution over all-out outfield effort. But I look at the differences for Vernon on the field and in the stands as what may spur Wells to a big year. There is no need for him to be a leader in this clubhouse, with Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Mike Scioscia and others. And, like veteran actor John Turturro, Wells has always done his best work in a supporting role. Plus, in all the times that I have been at Anaheim Stadium, I have never heard the laid-back So-Cal crowd boo a home team player. That will help Wells. I hope he does have a great year, but that should not determine the perceived wisdom of the Jays' trade. The unexpected opening presented itself for the Jays to save $81 million in present and future payroll and they had to take it.

Q. Two Questions:
1. With the Napoli trade how would you handle the catching position for 2011?
2. I thought Chad Jenkins was being groomed for the closer position, am I wrong or have they changed their minds?
Marc Oliver,
Toronto

A. I originally believed last fall that when the Jays traded for Miguel Olivo as a Type B free agent from the Rox and then immediately bought out his option, dangling him to the baseball world for a potential draft choice, the same situation as John Buck, I thought they would wait and see which one signed first and then they would re-sign the other guy to catch alongside J.P. Arencibia, giving them a veteran starter in case the kid fell on his face. But instead they let both men go and are going with Arencibia and the veteran 40-game starter Jose Molina.

That's great for Arencibia -- even better when they got rid of the temptation of using Mike Napoli behind the plate if the rookie struggled. But face it, they have to see what they've got in Arencibia. This guy has played two full seasons at Triple-A and, sure his first year in Vegas was hurt by a stomach disorder and night-vision problems since corrected, but he bounced back to become the PCL Most Valuabe Player. How could you send him back for a third season? Why should Arencibia's opportunity be any less than Matt Wieters in Baltimore, Buster Posey with the Giants, Geovany Soto with the Cubs, Carlos Santana with the Indians, Hank Conger with the Angels, Alex Avila with the Tigers, Jesus Montero with the Yankees and Jonathan Lucroy of the Brewers who are all celebrated more than they have ever been doubted by their organization and fans. The Jays have to give Arencibia more than the month of April to prove himself before they panic. He needs a full shot.
As for Chad Jenkins, I still think the Jays see him as a potential mid-rotation starter or trade bait. I think you may have confused him with Zach Stewart, acquired in the Scott Rolen deal from the Reds and more suited by repertoire for a closing role. That happens to me all the time.     

Q. Griff - what a trade!!
AA is the toast of the town and must be building quite the reputation. While I applaud the move, what is concerning is the potential for a porous defense this year. Is Rajai the answer in CF or is AA going to tinker some more?
Mauro Cavazzon,
Markham

A. I myself was looking to join the AA fan club but when I went online and applied they invited me to a meeting with a bunch of drunks trying to kick the habit. Confusion. So I've pulled back and just become an AA admirer for the moment. As you point out this season has a chance to be a disaster led by the D. Consider: if Arencibia can't do the job and his lack of hitting drags his pitch-calling into the gutter and the young starters take a step backwards; if Adam Lind can't handle the intricacies and footwork at first base and they put Edwin there as the answer; if Lind and Aaron Hill repeat their down seasons; if Yunel Escobar, after his hugely encouraging half-season in Toronto, shows why the Braves got rid of him and sort of stiffs; if Bautista hates third base and his HR total drops into the 20s; if Travis Snider, Rajai Davis and Juan Rivera form the starting outfield and the power alleys become cul-de-sacs; if the sum of the bullpen parts is less than the whole; if John Farrell is only a pitching coach in manager's clothing. Then yikes. AA needs to tinker some more. It could drive me to drink.

Q. Hey Richard,
Is there a lesson to be learned regarding Lawrie's introduction to the Blue Jays from the time past Expos' decision on then prospect Michael Barrett? The Expos had a decision to make with Jose Vidro, keep him at second or move him to third. Barrett would assume the open spot. The Expos kept Vidro at second and sent Barrett to third, where Barrett failed defensively. Would it be safer to play Lawrie at second instead of third?
Marcus Heinrichs,
Stouffville

A. There are plenty of parallels in the example that you offer. With the Expos, Vidro was just 24 in 1999 when the Barrett experiment started and had a couple of really good offensive seasons in a row. Barrett went from backup third baseman to Expos' starting third baseman to starting catcher all in three seasons but then his following career stuttered all the way through the next decade, punctuated by a fight with Carlos Zambrano in Chicago and finally being released by the Jays in 2009.
For the Jays, if it was me, I think I would try to keep Lawrie at second base where he has played for two pro seasons and move Hill to third base where he played when he first reached the majors. However, what I believe may be prompting the decision to move Lawrie is that it's not all about Hill. It's about the long-term of the middle infield and about Adeiny Hechavarria and where he fits in if Yunel Escobar proves at all to be the real deal at shortstop. Hill has either one year, three years or four years left depending on what the Jays want to do with his three option seasons. That will be an interesting and very telling decision that has to be made by opening day.

Q. Is there any truth to the Jays seeking Vlad Guerrero for DH this year? Or even Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder for next season? It is sounding like a Paul Molitor type of signing when the Jays were going for it in the early '90s. Thanks for all your insight.
Phil McCloskey,

Orangeville

A. According to Anthopoulos, the Jays prefer to fill the DH role with a player that can also play a position – like Edwin and first base. If they didn't need another first baseman given the tenuous nature of the Adam Lind experiment, I believe they would have gone after Manny Ramirez, considering that he can still play a little left field. But Edwin, Manny and Andruw Jones all signed one-year $2 million, so the industry is saying there's not much difference among the three. As for the Jays, Vlad is out, Pujols will have the baseball world at his feet and why would he choose Toronto, while Prince, with Scott Boras as his agent, will be looking for A-Rod years and dollars. Jays are out.

Live: Blue Jays Q&A

Blue Jays mailbag

Following the Jays’ last-minute rush this week to sign all their arbitration-eligible guys, and given that they were unable to reach agreement with only two men—Jose Bautista and Jason Frasor—the club now has 18 major-league players under contract for 2011. That number does not include the two unresolved arbitration cases.

The total cost of 18 guys is $66.485 million (using the formula of the number on their ’11 contracts plus pro-rated signing bonus over the length of the contract). Add to that 18-man salary another $1.25 million as buyouts for Miguel Olivo and Kevin Gregg and the new number becomes $67.78 million. Then, using a worst case arbitration scenario, if the Jays lost both remaining cases, with slugger and reliever, you can add another $14.225 million. The new figures for players and payroll are 20 Jays for $81.005 million.

Assume, then, that Adeiny Hechavarria and Dustin McGowan will not be on the 25-man Opening Day roster and the Jays will need to add seven more salaries. The rest of the 40-man roster is under team control, all with less than three years service or on minor-league deals. No matter what the combination or mix, that group will average around $500,000 each. That’s $3.5 million more to add a group that includes Kyle Drabek, J.P. Arencibia, Brett Cecil, David Purcey, Travis Snider and the rest. Unless the Jays are going to add more players from outside between now and camp, the 2011 Jays’ team payroll will be $84.5 million. The average player salary in 2010 was $3.3 million, meaning that the average 25-man roster was $82.5 million. Given what President Paul Beeston and GM Alex Anthopoulos have said all along, it would seem likely the Jays have room to add a significant player. On to the mailbag.    

Q. Richard, With Jose Bautista heading to arbitration, would it make sense for the Jays to trade him for assets? With Brett Lawrie, Adeiny Hechavarria, Mike McDade and Moises Sierra potentially ready for the bigs later in 2011 or 2012, would signing Bautista to a long- term deal make sense? He would just be blocking a potential superstar in the waiting in the minors? What are your thoughts on Bautista going forward, and how does he fit into the long term plans A.A. has laid out?

Scott Cochrane,

Niagara on the Lake

A. It would not make sense to trade Bautista for assets prior to the 2011 season except as a last resort — at the very least until the July trade deadline. If the Jays were to hang onto J-Bau all the way through the 2011 season, he would surely be a Type A free agent and will surely sign somewhere else and the Jays will surely receive a No. 1 and a sandwich draft pick in June 2012. If they make that trade now, they would be obliged to at least get the equivalent to the two high draft picks in minor-league talent because nobody in a trade for Bautista is going to give up a ready-for-prime-time position player (say third base or starting pitcher) and prospects for just one year of the 54-homer man. Advice to the Jays: stick to the game-plan. The 2011 season is all about the final step towards contending. For GM Alex Anthopoulos, he had a plan. The 2010 season was about rebuilding, 2011 is about building and 2012 will be about contending. To their credit, the Jays have not, thus far, wavered from that Oct. 2009 plan.

I believe the Jays are still currently negotiating with Bautista’s agent Bean Stringfellow (I just like to write his name) on a long-term deal. I would be surprised if this case ever reached the arbitration hearing in February, but if it does get to that point of no return, the Jays will not put up much of a fight in terms of a nasty battle in defence of their offer. They would not mind losing in exchange for goodwill. Considering the $15.5 million that Prince Fielder got from the Brewers and considering that both the Prince of pop and the HR King are each 5-plus in terms of years of service, Bautista’s $10.5 million request seems just about right. If the Jays could get Bautista for around five years, $60 million — Dan Uggla territory, I would do it. Uggla signed for 5 years and $62 million with the Braves and is the same age and service as Bautista, although he has been more consistent over his career. But Uggla is also a medium-average, high-power guy. The only problem would then become the percentage of team payroll, over 40 per cent, that would be tied up in two guys, Vernon Wells and Bautista.

Via Twitter: @RGriffinStar: Are these ubiquitous comparisons of Brett Lawrie to Jeff Kent a bit overly-optimistic or is this kid the real deal?

jonah8264

A. When mlb.com recently ranked their second-base prospects for 2011, Lawrie was second on their 2B list. They made the random Kent comparison. Face it, baseball people are always looking to compare one player to another from the past that people can relate to. In fact in one of the old Expos’ media guides of the late ’70s I remember causing a stir by stealing a line from a real scouting report that I had read in doing research on a young outfielder named Tony Scott. “...reminds of a young Joe DiMaggio.” Okay, sometimes scouts stretch the truth. In the case of Lawrie vs. Kent, I think the MLB comparison was made because of Lawrie’s pre-game focus, workout regime and prickly game-day personality. Plus the fact that both will arrive in the majors from the Jays’ system. However, there’s a hitch. At the recent mini-camp at the Rogers Centre, the Lawrie conversion has started to shift to third base. Lawrie was never a can’t-miss second baseman. It’s a secondary position that the Brewers chose for him. Lawrie played second base for just the two years in the Brewers system after coming up as a catcher in the Baseball Canada hopper. In fact, on the 2008 list of first-round picks, the Brewers listed Lawrie as 3B/C.

Q. Re: The Blue Jays’ bullpen. I think AA has given the team some arms to make for an interesting spring training. I’d like to know what you think of Jesse Carlson? For the two years before last year, he seemed like our no-name, go-to guy, very similar to the way Shawn Camp pitched for the team last year. Jesse had a knee problem coming out of camp, but never seemed to recover his form. What do you think his problem was last year and do you see him bouncing back this year?

Bruce Robb,

Toronto

 

A. I like Jesse Carlson a lot — both as a personality and as a player. He had a great rookie season in 2008, then in 2009 his WHIP went alarmingly up in a similar number of games and innings. In the spring of 2010, he suffered a knee problem and by the time he was healthy and pitching on all cylinders, it was late in the season and he only got an August recall thanks to first baseman Adam Lind’s high feed to David Purcey that resulted in the big lefty’s sprained ankle.

In both 2008-09, Carlson held righty hitters to a lower batting average than lefthanders. In ’08 it was RHH .186 to LHH .205. In ‘09 RHH .247 to LHH .272. That is not the statistical log of the classic lefty specialist. To make the team as a second lefty to Purcey, the scrawny Carlson will have to fend off challenges from Jo-Jo Reyes, Wil Ledezma, Rommie Lewis and maybe even Marc Rzepczynski.    

Q. With the list of FREE AGENT starting pitchers shrinking daily, who would be a good fit for the Jays. Maybe not a No. 1 starter but a solid No. 2 with experience who could possibly lead the young staff. There are still a few bigger named pitchers available, but time is running out. tick, tock, tick, tock…

Rob Linton,

Espanola, Ont.

A. Nobody could be a good fit for the Jays. At this particular point, in this particular year, I don’t see the Jays reaching out late to sign guys like Freddy Garcia, Kevin Millwood, John Maine, Jarrod Washburn, Jeff Weaver or Pedro. None of those guys would likely be counted on to help beyond 2011 and would only stand in the way of finding out who among the farmhands in the Jays’ system is most ready to start in 2012 and beyond. There are no solid No. 2s left on the free-agent market — otherwise they would be signed already. The difference for the Jays between 78 and 82 wins in 2012 is not worth it. 

Q. Hey Griff. Is it just me, or does A.A do a great job at negotiating contracts? He seems to be able to get a lot of players to sign nice contracts with reasonable TEAM options for following years (some that come to mind right away are Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Jon Rauch, Octavio Dotel, etc.). This seems like a small, yet very significant aspect of his reign as GM (no more Burnett, V.W fiasco’s). Is there anything to this or are these just a few examples and I shouldn’t be read too much into it? Thanks.

Chris M.,

W.B.

A. Anthopoulos does do a very good job at negotiating contracts. The imagination of his original Hill contract was A.A.’s launching off point as the assistant GM in the previous regime. The Hill contract gave the Jays cost-certainty for the four years leading to free-agency, plus it gave the club two chances to pick up reasonable options, making the length of the contract from four to six to seven years. Here’s how it works. This is the final season of Hill’s four-year deal. He will earn $5 million in this, his sixth MLB season. The Jays have until the evening of Opening Day to declare that they are picking up the three years of his option (2012-13-14) for $8M, $8M and $10 million. Because of last year’s personal Hill debacle, they could also wait to see how he does in terms of bouncing back, but if they do that, once the 2011 season starts, they are only allowed to pick up the 2012-13 options and Hill becomes a free agent after 2013. Or, if he sucks again in 2011, they can even just let go of all the options and he’s a free agent after this year. In fact, that imaginative Anthopoulos invention was the first such deal in the majors and led to a Rays’ similar Evan Longoria deal with various option packages and buyout dates.

Anthopoulos believes in several basic facts of major-league negotiating. One is the belief that if most GMs are choosing between two or three equal talents, given a wide-open choice they will usually choose the wrong player. Second is that free-agent competition at the same position always leads to higher salaries, so why not wait until somebody in the skill-category you’re looking for signs a contract with a major-league GM given choice... then you sign the other guy at a bargain rate. (see Brian Fuentes and Jon Rauch). One thing Anthopoulos learned from his former boss is that there is a lot of player/agent ego involved in dealing with free agents and if you add a hefty club option year with a healthy buyout, that is often enough to secure a deal even if your plan all along is to buy the player out (see Bengie Molina; see Kevin Gregg). To answer the question, yeah A.A. is good at contracts.     

Q. Hey Richard. Can J.P. Arencibia, actually handle the starting catcher job? How many starts will he get? Can our other catching prospects play any other position?

Mark Louise,

Toronto

A. Handing the starting catching job to Arencibia is taking a chance, but it’s a chance you must take this season in 2011 to ensure that you know what you need to spend your money in 2012. If Arencibia falls on his face in 2011, the Jays know that to compete the next year they need a catcher. At that point they will go and get one. If the talented youngster, drafted in the 2007 first round, takes the catcher’s position and runs with it this year, they can spend their 2012 money elsewhere.

It’s not a slam-dunk. Let’s look at the worst case glass-half-empty scenario for a second and how their 85 wins in 2010 might be a tough task to repeat. C: Arencibia is a gamble both offensively and in providing the leadership and game-calling for a young rotation. Travis D’Arnaud and Carlos Perez are years away and Brian Jeroloman will be a career backup catcher at the major-league level. Nobody plays another position. 1B: Lind may not learn his footwork and balls down the line, through the holes and low throws could eat him up. Then you have Edwin. DH: See 1B and reverse. 2B: Hill might continue his swan dive on both sides of his game. 3B: Bautista could tail off from 54 to 30 homers. Historically, it’s a more likely scenario than is a repeat performance. SS: Maybe the Braves were right about Escobar and maybe the last month of the season is more like the real Yunel than his first month with the Jays. LF: What if Snider is just an injury-prone underachiever? He really hasn’t proven anything in a full season. CF: What is Vernon’s charity foundation builds more homes than runs his bat drives home? RF: What if Rajai Davis is  just a right-handed hitting Fred Lewis? They always have Corey Patterson. Rotation: Let’s see. In the past two years, they’ve dumped two opening day starters in Roy Halladay and Shaun Marcum. The top four current starters have combined for 67 career victories only one of the quartet has pitched more than 173 innings in any season. Bullpen: There is competition for closer but will there be games to close? Kevin Gregg and Scott Downs were the 8^th and 9^th focus.  

Q. Hi Richard. This is more of a baseball question than a Blue Jay one. Is the blockbuster trade dead? I truly believe that ’cuz of huge salaries and no trade clauses that the classic blockbuster is no more. If THE TRADE that brought Alomar and Carter to Toronto was to happen in 2011 you would have 4 players with a combined $60 million in salaries with probably 3 no trade clauses to deal with. I don’t think it would happen. It seems like the only trades that happen anymore are “how many prospects can I get for my star.”

Mark Vendramini,

Toronto

A. At the time the deal was made in 1990, Alomar was 22, Carter was 30, McGriff was 26 and Fernandez was 28. That deal could have been made in any era, but I think today’s reluctance for blockbusters stems from a younger generation of GMs that rely as much on computer readouts as on their scouting spidey-senses that is to blame. It’s safer when you’re dealing established major-league talent for minor-league prospects, because there is no immediate rush to judgment to declare a GM incompetent, however when you go with established talent for established talent, the fan and ownership evaluations are crystal clear within the year and young GMs seem to be more insecure than the cigar-smoking, tobacco-spitting icons of the past.

Corporate ownerships are a problem too. Also to blame for the paucity of blockbusters is the clear delineation between the “haves” and “have-nots” in the modern era. It’s easier for a team with large payroll to construct a deal with a team with low payroll because you can clearly see their graduating class heading your way as small-market home-grown young stars go deep into their arbitration years and approach free-agency. But for two teams that want to win right here, right now they may not want to trade with each other if they are in the same division or league (see Red Sox and Yankees) and the big boys definitely don’t want to give up major-league talent when they think they can pry the same talent level away from a small market team using just prospects.  

Q. Hey Richard. This one comes all the way from Bermuda. As of right now it’s looking like 4 guaranteed starting pitchers; Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil and Kyle Drabek. I’m rooting for Jesse Litsch fill the five-spot. Who do you think wins it out?

Kareem James,

Bermuda

A. I wouldn’t necessarily guarantee the Jays’ four-spot to Drabek. He is the clear front-runner and still a top prospect, but he has a long way to go as per his September performance. In addition to Litsch, one must consider Marc Rzepczynski who came on near the end of last season and had a very nice Arizona Fall League season. Litsch was not having a banner year when he was hurt last year, with a 1-5, 5.79 ERA in nine starts. He needs to earn the fifth starter’s spot at spring training. Don’t forget the rehabbing contender Scott Richmond, plus minor-league studs Zach Stewart and Chad Jenkins.   

Q. I heard the Jays are working out Eric Chavez. What percent of a chance do you give him to make the team and regain his former all star status? Or is he past his prime?

Danny Boy

Oshawa

A. Signing Chavez, 33, to a major-league deal off of controlled workouts for Jays’ scouts would be like handing a PGA golfer his tour card after seeing him on the driving range. Chavez could at best be signed to a minor-league contract with no guarantees. It depends on if he gets a guaranteed offer somewhere else. That’s the only way to approach a third baseman that has had five total surgeries to a combination of back and throwing shoulder. In 2010, he played one game at first base and DH the rest of the time ending his year on May 20. When healthy and in his prime, he was a Gold Glove third baseman. But so was Brooks Robinson and nobody’s interested in signing him right now.

Griffin: Bautista and Frasor head to arbitration hearings

 And then there were two. The Jays, back at the out-set of the arbitration process, had a group of nine players eligible to take advantage, but over the past three days, GM Alex Anthopoulos and his front office staff were able to come to terms with the majority of those players, leaving major-league home run king Jose Bautista and former closer Jason Frasor as the lone remaining Jays headed towards one-year hearings in February.

“Our policy on one-year deals, if we don't have one-year deals done by the 1:00 p.m. deadline, we would not negotiate a one-year deal,” Anthopoulos said. “If a multi-year deal comes about we certainly could continue to negotiate those, but those are obviously things that we keep private, keep quiet and keep in house. The only one-year deal that we would do right now is in a hearing room.”

In a hardball arbitration strategy of “settle now or we go to the hearing” that a year ago worked wonderfully to clear the board of cases before the deadline, the Jays are now entering an unprecedented salary discussion with Bautista for what could be a record settlement on a one-year contract for 2011. Anthopoulos did not rule out the possibility that a long-term deal was being worked on behind the scenes.

Frasor is the one other case pending. The veteran reliever accepted the club's offer of arbitration in December removing him from the six-year free agent ranks, but was not able to reach an acceptable agreement with Jays' GM Alex Anthopoulos. The closing bullpen picture is muddled for the Jays with the additions of a pair of experienced free agent righthanders, Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch.

The salary demands and the offers for Bautista and Frasor will be revealed as part of the overall arbitration announcement from the office of major-league baseball later Tuesday afternoon.

Earlier in the day, the Jays signed three players to contracts, including outfielder Rajai Davis (two years, $5.25 million, plus an option for 2013); shortstop Yunel Escobar one year, $2,9 million), and righthander Brandon Morrow (one year, $2.3 million).

On Monday, the Jays had reached agreement with a trio of righthanders Casey Janssen (one year, $1.095 million), Jesse Litsch (one year, $830,000) and, as midnight approached, Shawn Camp (one year, $2.25 million). On the weekend, righthander Carlos Villanueva, acquired in December from the Brewers, showed the way reaching agreement on a one-year contract for $1.415 million.

The Jays currently have 18 players under contract for the 2011 season at a cost of $67.8 million. Bautista and Frasor are considered signed players, bringing the total to 20. The only question now is the amount for the two. The hearings are scheduled to take place in Florida sometime between February 1-20 at a date to be determined.

Bautista has five years and 165 days of service and earned $2.4 million a year ago when he slammed 54 home runs and led the major leagues. Frasor has six years and 134 days of ML service and earned $2.65 million. The righthander was ranked as a Type A free agent and instead of taking a cgance on not being signed, he accepted arbitration from the Jays.

 

 

Griffin: Arbitration deadline approaches

Just after midnight, the Jays announced that veteran reliever Shawn Camp has agreed to terms on a one-year contract for $2.25 million. Camp is eligible for free agency following the 2011 season and is expected to be a sturdy contributor in a seventh inning setup role.

Camp joined fellow righthanders Casey Janssen and Jesse Litsch as agreeing to terms on Monday, thus avoiding the sometimes nasty arbitration process. Reliever Carlos Villanueva had signed a one-year deal on the weekend. The Jays now have five players remaining as the 1:00 p.m. deadline approaches for the exchange of numbers between club and player.

Leading the list of Jays headed for arbitration is major-league home run leader Jose Bautista, who following the signing of Reds' first baseman Joey Votto on Monday, could be in line for a one-season deal in the vicinity of $12-15 million. The club must make an offer and the player makes his demand on Tuesday, with an arbitrator deciding on one of the two numbers. The sides have up until the actual hearing in February to reach agreement.

Other Jays still going through the arbitration process include Jason Frasor, Rajai Davis, Brandon Morrow and Yunel Escobar.    

Blue Jays mailbag

On Monday afternoon, I made the drive west on the 401 to the wonderfully rustic Langdon Hall in Cambridge, the designated headquarters hotel for the Jays' caravan as the club tries to spread the word across the country and re-establish themselves as Canada's team (although there's no competition).

It may not seem significant, but while the seemingly confused quartet of Vernon Wells, J.P. Arencibia, Jesse Litsch and Travis Snider tried to figure out how to react and what was going on and why they were there, the true significance of the re-invented caravan shone through to those that were there. Recall fondly that when Tom Cheek, Jerry Howarth and Cito Gaston were the centre pieces of the winter tours, the caravan was a key marketing effort worth the expense to reach out and start the ball rolling on ticket sales for the year.

It was all about community identification, group sales, selling sporting heroes and adding radio affiliates. It was always a sign that spring was coming, that the Jays cared about their fans and actually wanted them to come to the games. There was none of that in 2010.

In fact, in the minds of many fans, the Jays in 2010 with the lack of promotions, the removal of discounted tickets and the fiasco of SportsNet ONE seemed to be trying to see how low they could go. It's like a woman trying to discourage a longtime friend and end a relatonship by never returning his calls and treating him like an unwanted stranger (not that I would know how that feels).

If that was the Jays' plan then it worked to perfection. The once-fan-responsive Paul Beeston had watched his franchise hit the bottom of the deep, dry well. Now it's time to start climbing out no matter how slowly it goes.

Hopefully that final escape into sunlight will correspond and intersect with the Jays success on the field when they reach contending status under the system-building Toronto resident, Alex Anthopoulos.

“We want to re-connect with the fans we have from coast-to-coast,” said Stephen Brooks, senior vice-president of Business Operations. Who even knew they had one? “Paul was a big supporter of (the caravan) from Day 1 and certainly saw the value of fans from coast-to-coast knowing who our players are. We think there's a demand from the fans to re-connect with them and certainly this is a sign that we're back and we're Canada's team and if we're going to be Canada's team, these are the things that we have to do. The players are enjoying it and, as an organization, we're pretty excited about it.”

Hey, this might even be a signal for those fans that last year gave up on even letting the Jays know what you thought because they never responded (hello upper deck ushers and your strongarm ticket-checking tactics and your “no-heckling zone” policies) this is a signal to let the Jays know what you think. Maybe this is the year that they start to listen again. On to the mailbag. 

Q: Hi Richard, I hear Adam Lind recently went down to Dunedin to work on his first base fielding skills. Is there any word on how that's going? I think it's a huge move for the Jays if they can get him out of the DH spot. What do you think fans should expect to see from him at 1B?

David O'Grady,

Kitchener

A: If Al Oliver, who I love and who makes me smile as a human being, could play an entire season at first base (which he did) and could lead the NL in hitting in 1982, make the all-star game and finish third in MVP voting as a bad first baseman, then Adam Lind can certainly play there as a starter. The 11 games that we saw Lind play first base last year, compared quite favourably to my first-base memories of Scoop Oliver. In fact, Oliver made the sometimes awkward Lind resemble Baryshnikov by comparison. I think Lind would likely have seen even more action at first base in 2010 except for two things:

1. Maybe that the draft-choice addicted Jays were hoping that Lyle Overbay could add enough numbers that he would qualify as a Type B free agent. Then when he signed with the Pirates it would have given them another June pick

2. There was the fact that in one of his first starts at first base, Lind fielded a grounder to his right and lobbed a high, looping feed to a sprinting, covering David Purcey who leaped into the air and came down on the corner of the bag turning his ankle and putting him on the DL. Manager Cito Gaston was not impressed.

But this is a fresh start for Lind at first base. As for his work ethic, yes, he went to Dunedin just after he got married, joining Michael Jackson as the only two guys I know who brought a glove with them on their honeymoon. In any case, Lind worked with former major-league utility man Mike Mordecai, now a Jays' minor-league instructor, on the three aspects – footwork around the bag, taking grounders and receiving throws. Lind worked hard. It's not like he's a complete novice. Lind played 114 games at first base in two years at the University of South Alabama. But when he turned pro with the Jays, there is a reason why they shifted him to the outfield. I think this time the results will be good for the Jays and for Lind. As a young DH in a slump last year, I believe he had too much time to ponder his failures at the plate. When you talked to him in the clubhouse and perhaps pointed out some good at-bats that resulted in line drive outs as a point of optimism, he would counter with a trunkful of negatives about his own year. He was thinking too much. As a defensive participant, he will feel more like a complete player.

Q: I have to ask you about all the talk about needing Bautista's strong arm in right field. I understand that having a strong arm in right is a huge benefit not just for the runners he throws out, but all the times that a runner decides not to take second or third for fear of being thrown out. I see why you wouldn't want to waste his arm by sticking him at first base, but it seems to me that having a strong arm at third base is also a pretty nice weapon to have. Is it really that much of a difference having him in right field instead of third?

Michael Santos,

Toronto

A: Right now, Bautista will help the Jays more as a third baseman, but the fact that he himself prefers right field does not bode well for him ever deciding on a long-term deal at any sort of a home-team consideration if he indeed thinks his future as a Jay will be at third base, his second favourite position. To me, the power arm as a deterrent in right field is bigger than people give it credit for. As you point out, it's not just the assists as a right fielder, it's the fact of runners stopping at second base instead of going first to third, or stopping at third instead of scoring from second and maybe dragging the hitter to second base when the throw goes through to the plate, or a guy stopping at first base as the right fielder cuts the ball off in the corner and fires a strike to second keeping a double play in order. That can be the pitcher's very subtle best friend. If the Jays want to sign Bautista to a long-term deal, I think they need to let him know that sooner or later it will be as a right fielder. It's okay for now, but Bautista is in the driver's seat. He's saying all the right things now about playing wherever they need him.     

Q: Richard, I know the off-season is only half over. The Jays have been fairly quiet in terms of player acquisition. Do you expect any significant moves? We've had more roster subtractions than solid additions. With the current roster, what would our projected be, and how does that compare to other AL East teams? BTW, how do the prospects that the Rays received for Garza compare to what was received for Marcum (their stats were very similar last year)?

Frank S,

Toronto

A: Hey, spring training is just a month away so the off-season is more than just half over. Most teams like to head to camp with their basic team on hand and cut down in the 45 days of camp. Jays' young GM Alex Anthopoulos is not like the rest so he will keep talking in March, but he needs a dance partner from among the old-school GMs, so to my way of roster-thinking, any significant moves including free agent signings will be done before Valentine's Day. Anthopoulos is looking at more bullpen help and another infielder, likely third base. There are free agents out there as far as third base is concerned, but there are better options available in trade. He will close that trade door before he dips into the mediocre, stopgap free agent pool. The unidentified free agent would likely be only for a year or two, counting on the fact that Brett Lawrie, obtained in the Marcum deal, will be ready by 2012-13. The confident Canadian, Lawrie feels he will be ready in 2011, which by the end of camp would perhaps allow the Bautista move back to right field without having to go outside the organization.

As for the package of prospects that the Rays received from the Cubs, consider that Garza is considered a more valuable pitcher in trade than Marcum and this was a three-for-five deal that makes it difficult to compare with Marcum traded for the Brewers' No. 1 prospect, Lawrie. Of the two outfielders the Rays got, Sam Fuld, 29, and Brandon Guyer, 25, neither is a difference maker or even projects as a starting outfielder. The shortstop, Hak-Ju Lee, 20, had Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow before joining the Cubs organization in 2008. He has had 61 errors in 169 games at shortstop at Class-A. He is still years away. The 22-year-old righthander Chris Archer is a gem, with the opportunity to start or close. A high school draft of the Indians in 2006, he emerged in the past two seasons in the Cubs' organization, going 15-3 at A and Double-A in 27 starts, with more than a strikeout per inning in 2010. The catcher, Robinson Chirinos, 26, is a converted infielder, entering his third full season behind the plate. He throws well and hits like a backup catcher. If Brett Lawrie eventually makes the Jays as a contributing starter, that will likely equal the starting haul of regulars that the Rays end up with. The Jays and Rays went after different fish using the same bait, a top of the order starting pitcher.    

Q: Hey Richard, with Roberto Alomar recently being inducted into the Hall of Fame, I had a quick question: I know the Jays have many players on the level of excellence, but are any numbers actually retired? And if not, do the Jays plan to retire Alomar's?

Nathan Zaltsman,

San Francisco 

A: There are no Jays' uniform numbers actually retired yet, but because Alomar is their first Hall-of-Famer, I would not be surprised if he became the first. That No. 12 retirement would be an easier decision to make if his current divorce proceedings don't get too messy to sully his reputation and if he ends up working on a more permanent basis in the Jays' organization as a minor-league instructor. They are having a Roberto Alomar bobblehead day and no, when you tap it on the head it does not spit.

Q: What do you think about the chances for Fred McGriff making the Hall of Fame? He was a quiet player, never complained, never held out, always did his job. Really when you look at all the teams he played with, he was always the one providing the protection in the lineup.

Brendan Fyke,

Kingston

A: I do not have great confidence in McGriff ever making the Hall of Fame in a writers vote. His total this year dropped 3.6 per cent to 17.9 per cent. I voted for him this ballot for the first time and he was the last player added to my group of seven. I don't see a huge groundswell or indignation about his total dropping and that is always a bad sign. I feel bad for McGriff. He was in a Catch-22 situation on the ballot. He was one of seven career first baseman up for consideration. On the one hand he receives kudos because his name is never mentioned in the steroid era discussions, but his raw power and production numbers don't match up favourably with some of the suspected cheaters at his position -- making him perhaps wonder what he was thinking when he chose not to cheat. The steroid allegations affect not just the guys under suspicion, but also spin off into the others. It's a mess. 

Q: This one's about everyone's favourite Jay, Johnny Mac. At some point in the near future, he will probably retire (hopefully as a Blue Jay). Do you know if he would have any interest in staying with the organization in a coaching role (i.e. infield instructor)? He's beloved by the fans and in the clubhouse. Moreover, the infielders really seem to look up to him (esp. Hill) when it comes to fielding. Maybe he's our next Butterfield...

Austin N,

Toronto

A: McDonald has one more Jays season left on his contract and, in fact, some time in May 2011 will reach his long-coveted goal of 10 years in the majors that will max him out on his major-league pension. That's a big moment for a guy that has always come to training camp as a backup infielder. At the end of this contract, he is not necessarily done as a player. His hero is former teammate Omar Vizquel who played into his 40s in a mentor role to young infielders ahead of him and as a backup shortstop for some decent teams. Johnny Mac is familiar with that role and can keep playing as long as he wants to. As far as staying with the Jays post-playing-career, he may take a year off when he retires because of his strong family commitment but at some point he will want to step back in as a coach and work his way up to become a major-league manager. I have no doubt that he is capable of reaching the top. But as far as it being with the Jays, this guy has friends and admirers around baseball and he will get multiple offers to step in and begin his coaching career. As far as J-Mac being the next Butterfield, there is no one that is the next Butterfield. A career minor-leaguer who knew early on he should be doing something other than playing, Butter can fog up the clubhouse bathroom mirror without turning on the hot water. His intensity and love of the game is what inspires young players. Johnny Mac brings more of a low-key love to the coaching role. Same result.      

Q: Hey Richard, just wanna get your opinions on a couple of players. Do you see Manny Ramirez a good fit for the Jays given that they do need a power hitter at DH and the fact that his presence will help generate more ticket sales! Also, do you think Brett Lawrie is good enough to get a spot for 2B/3B?

Jess,

North Vancouver

A:I used to think Manny would be a good fit in Tornto in 2011 much the way Frank Thomas was a good fit as a DH for the A's back in '06 when he was trying to re-establish himself, but became a bad fit for the Jays the next year when all he was doing was going for a milestone home run. The power hitter from the right side at DH was filled in by Edwin Encarnacion and signing Manny would just muddy the waters with two guys you don't want in the field. His presence would not generate ticket sales. It would generate a certain buzz but right now the Jays significant buzz on the Internet and the blog sites does not translate into buzz in the Rogers Centre. The in-stadium ticket buzz can only be generated by winning. As for Lawrie, as a second baseman he thinks he's Joe Morgan but maybe he's more like Joe Lawrence. Only time and spring training will tell. 

Q: What's the story with Accardo? it seems to me that the Jays have given him a raw deal. The trading of Marcum really bothers me. I had the feeling that he was the leader of the young starting pitchers. They appeared to be really close and I am concerned that the remaining guys are going to be upset.

Frank Brown,

Thornhill

A: Jeremy Accardo was surely given a raw deal by the Jays, but he didn't help himself the last two years. The club had a certain perception of him that included perhaps sulking and not working as hard as he should and other than a lot of bitter talk, he was never able to change their minds. Some guys take the demotion to the minor leagues and work harder than ever to get back. Others mope and complain and put in their time. We can't be sure, but Accardo was presented by Jays management as being of the latter persuasion. The Jays did screw him by manipulating his service time using the minor leagues to keep him under control and away from arbitration and free agency. Accardo and his agents were well aware of it. Jeremy thought when Anthopoulos came on board that his situation would automatically change. He was promised he would be allowed to compete for a job, but the first chance they had to send him to Vegas they did. Again, he didn't help himself there. By September it was mutually agreed upon that he would not be brought up. He was not offered a 2011 contract, making him a free agent. Accardo now has a chance to re-establish himself with the Orioles.

As for Marcum's departure, I believe that the likeable righthander was traded only after the Jays tried to sign him to a multi-year deal and it could not be worked out. The new leader of the starting staff already is Ricky Romero who has the respect of all his fellow young starters and is very close with the new catcher J.P. Arencibia. The Jays will use 2011 to identify the Nos. 4-5 starters moving forward into the contending years. The true fact of the matter regarding baseball clubhouses is that no matter how important a player may look to clubhouse chemistry one year, they all know that trades are part of the game and the remaining players move on quickly. The friendships remain forever.  

Q: Hi Richard, love the bloggage. You mentioned in (last week's) blog that Dave Parker's name will be removed from next year's HOF ballot. In my estimation, Parker had an awesome, HOF calibre career. Consider he had over 2700 hits, 339 HR, and almost 1500 RBIs plus played great defense. In your years covering the Expos, what did you think of the Cobra?

Mark Horton,

Barrie

A: When I worked with the Expos and Parker played for the Pirates, I saw Cobra play 18 times per season when he was with the Pirates and 12 times per year with the Reds. To my mind he was the greatest right fielder of his era. When Roberto Clemente died in a tragic mission of mercy plane crash, the Bucs filled in in right field with Manny Sanguillen, Richie Zisk and others for two years, before Parker grabbed the position for himself in 1975. Unfortunately for his reputation, he was front and centre in the Pittsburgh drug trials of the early '80s and as we are wont to do, Hall voters seem to have had trouble getting over it. These were not performance enhancers, by the way, but it makes no difference. The guy was a great ballplayer, but by the time I had earned my vote following 10 years in the BBWAA, Parker was already flying under the Hall-of-Fame radar. Power, speed, average, arm, defence, charisma. He had it all. Great player.

Blue Jays mailbag

 

All of Wednesday's Hall of Fame excitement and buzz is winding down. Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven are on their way to Cooperstown on July 24, while the blogosphere outrage surrounding who was left out is gradualy subsiding.

It's interesting that two of Robby's career highlights involved fellow Hall-of-Famers. His first hit was off Nolan Ryan and then there's the ALCS Game 4 homer in '92 against Dennis Eckersley.

How long has Blyleven been forced to wait? Consider that when Blyleven was with the Rangers in 1977, his young son used to play on the field before games with a 9-year-old Roberto Alomar, his teammate Sandy's son.

Time to think about next year's ballot. Let the campaigning begin. Consider that the biggest increase in votes this year, other than what was recorded by the two new inductees were Barry Larkin, Tim Raines, Jack Morris and Alan Trammell. Rookie Jeff Bagwell made the biggest impact of the first-time candidates. Consider that five-some the front-runners for next year.

The biggest new name for 2012 will be former Yankees centre fielder, Bernie Williams. From this year's list, Dave Parker will be removed from next year's ballot, his 15 years of eligibility having expired. Also gone, receiving less that 5 per cent of the vote are: Harold Baines, John Franco, Kevin Bfrown, Tino Martinez, Marquis Grissom, Al Leiter, John Olerud, B.J. Surhoff, Bret Boone, Benito Santiago, Carlos Baerga, Lenny Harris, Bobby Higginson, Charles Johnson, Raul Mondesi and Kirk Rueter. Tony LaRussa's attempt to help Mark McGwire's candidacy by returning him to the mainstream, making him the Cards' hitting coach didn't work quite as planned, with Big Mac actually losing votes from previous years. Juan Gonzalez, with 5.2 per cent barely made the cut. On to the mailbag.   

Q: Appreciate your blunt comment on the signing of Octavio Dotel. He and Carlos Villanueva are a couple of journeyman punching bags. How will our precious young starting talent deal with a bullpen that constantly turns seven fine innings into losses in the eighth and ninth? Please tell me AA isn't turning into JPR. No, we've not been promised a contender in 2011, but without Lyle Overbay, John Buck and Shaun Marcum, I doubt we'll see a .500 season barring miracles.
Selby Martin,
Toronto

A: How do the Jays reach 81 wins and a .500 record in 2011 without a side trip to Lourdes? A few things have to occur. 1) If J.P. Arencibia replaces Buck behind the plate and develops into an offensive threat that reflects his development as a hitter the last two years at triple-A , capped by PCL MVP at Vegas. 2) If Adam Lind's move to first base creates a rebound in his hitting to 2009 numbers. I believe that a hitter of his age thrown into the DH role as he was the past two years gave him too much down time between ABs to dwell on failure. The first year was a novelty and an adrenaline rush. Getting back into the defensive scheme allows him to become a baseball player again. 3) If Aaron Hill is more the '09 Hill than the '10 Hill. 4) If Anthopoulos is not yet done recruiting position players and comes up with a viable third baseman so that Bautista can go to right field. 4) If Travis Snider stays healthy and has a breakout year, which he looks poised to do. 5) If Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow emerge as 200-plus inning workhorses and can total 30 wins between them. 6) If Kyle Drabek is the real deal in a fourth starter role. 7) If John Farrell is a better in-game strategist than Cito Gaston and is not as stubborn at leaving players in their spot in the batting order to play their way out of slumps. 8) If the bullpen can mix and match and cobble together some 8th and 9th inning effectivenes in whatever combination works. The Jays are not done adding pieces to the pen. Dotel and Villanueva are certainly not lost causes but there's a reason that Dotel is now with his 11th major-league team in 13 years and that Villanueva was about to be non-tendered by the Brewers when the Jays picked him up.

Q: Hey Richard, I was reading a question in your last blog about Jim Thome. While he obviously can't play much defence anymore, wouldn't he have been good for drawing fans to the stadium, because he is very near to 600 home runs? Also, just a quick question, what exactly happens in a free agent’s physical exam?
Thank you
Nathan Zaltsman,
San Francisco

A: Thome has had a great career and is a future Hall of Famer, as distant as he has been able to keep himself from steroid allegations. But as a full-time DH approaching a home run milestone in the twilight of his career, he would just be another Frank Thomas and the Big Hurt did not add fans to the stands in his drive for 500 homers. Thome is a good guy in the clubhouse and a joy to sit down and talk to. But Anthopoulos has said he wants to get away from a strict DH-only player that has handicapped them in the nine interleague road games. Thome is done as a defender.

The requirement that all transactions – trades or free agent – remain unannounced by clubs until physical exams are completed has a Blue Jays connection. Back on January 14, 2001, the Jays acquired Mike Sirotka from the White Sox in a six-player deal for David Wells. The deal was made in good faith by both sides, but when Sirotka turned up it turned out he had a serious left shoulder problem that he had picked up late in a MLB tour of Japan that he hadn't fully reported to the Sox. GM Gord Ash petitioned for the trade to be rescinded but the decision was made to just fill in more players and Sirotka spent the year on the Jays' DL. It was an embarrassment for the Jays and at the end of the year Ash was fired and replaced by J.P. Ricciardi. Since then, full medical exams are a requirement. It's not just a hands-on, balls-out exam by team doctors. Most teams, including the Jays, have a risk management department that every spring details where each player stands physically. It is filed away. Their history of preexisting conditions can be carefully tracked throughout their careers in 12-month chapters. It's an important aspect of baseball that prevents free agents from coming on board and signing, then announcing an injury requiring surgery that must be paid for by the new club. The Jays' risk management director, Suzanne Joncas was a pioneer in the field when she was with the Expos in the '90s and other teams have since followed suit.

Q: What is the difference between how the Jays are being run and how the Expos were run in the '80s?  Groom prospects for six years then lose them to higher paying organizations.  Fill the gaps with veteran role players on the cheap and hope that all of the young talent can come together for one or two years and challenge for a playoff spot before you lose them to free agency and start over again. Meanwhile attendance drops and drops as fans lose interest and realize that their Jays are nothing more than a glorified farm team for the Yanks, Bosox, Phillies, Dodgers, etc.
David Burns,
London

A: There are huge differences between the Expos of the '80s and the Jays of the '00s. The Expos and their fans knew they were small market and management even positioned themselves as such and relished it, using the Padres as a realistic role model, with a broadcast area restricted by a foreign country to the south and a monster franchise hemming them in. In the case of the Padres, it was Mexico to the south and the Dodgers as the elephant in to room. In the case of the Expos, it was the United States below and the Blue Jays dominating the market. The Expos and their fans thrived on the underdog role. The Jays and their fans resent it when looking to the Red Sox and Yankees.

*Sports fans in Montreal were buoyed and smiling every spring heading into the season by a significant run by the city's hockey team, the Habs. It was feel-good sports feeling carried over into the arrival of summer. The sports fans in Toronto, on the other hand, are dragged down emotionally each spring by the Leafs, carrying the brooding storm clouds of no playoff/no lottery pick into the baseball season.

*The Expos understood they were running a university equivalency program – rookie, sophomore, junior, senior, then diploma and trade. It was a fact of life. John McHale, Jim Fannning, Murray Cook, Dave Dombrowski, Gary Hughes, Dan Duquette and Kevin Malone carried out the plan with no complaints, competing hard year-after-year, on a budget. The difference in Toronto is that fans are more impatient. Eventually ownership says they are willing to spend more money on payroll. The fact is the franchise, based on population, broadcast reach and Rogers' financial resources, is easily capable of competing with the big boys. It's just they have to be given the signal by Anthopoulos and Beeston.

*The fans in Montreal enjoyed themselves more. There is no French-Canadian equivalent of “angst”. As for attendance, the Expos rode the wave of success of the late '70s-early '80s through 1983, then the mortician-like presence of manager Bill Virdon killed the buzz. It was like having Pope Benedict planning your New Year's Eve party. But in the late '80s and early '90s under Buck Rodgers and Felipe Alou, fans started to fill the Stade again...until MLB came in and took over and killed the buzz forever. Expos fans always looked on the bright side. Jays fans are forever marching towards the darkness.            

Q: Hello Richard. Do you know if Edwin Encarnacion started implementing the same hitting approach as Jose Bautista last year? Both showed a significant change to their groundball to flyball ratio (Bautista's being dramatically different). Given Encarnacion's apparent opportunity for regular plate appearances, do you see a breakout 40+hr season for him ala Bautista's 2010?  Also, is Bautista a very good low ball hitter?  One would think pitchers would've just started busting him low or low and outside once it was clear he was intent on hitting the ball in the air every time.
Craig Hirota,
Oakville

A: If by implementing the same hitting approach you mean joining the cult of Murph and Cito, then yes. Gaston always believed that you need to go to the plate with a plan. With a fresh count, look for a certain pitch in a certain location and if you find it, drive it. Until you get to two strikes, you don't go out of your zone. At two strikes you have to expand and it's a whole new story. You're still anticipating and going on the history of the pitcher and more specifically you against the pitcher. Cito is a believer that in any pitch sequence, any at-bat, a pitcher will make a mistake. You have to hit that mistake and if you swing first pitch if it's not your pitch then you're not allowing the pitcher to make that mistake. Gaston always points to A-Rod and the number of times that you'll see him take a fastball right down Broadway for strike three because he was looking for something offspeed. His argument is if it's good enough for A-Rod, it's good enough for E.E. Or J-Bau. As for Bautista being a good lowball hitter, I would suggest that when he is in a good groove, Bautista is a good low strike hitter. It's clearly not the pitch he's looking for early in the count and he won't chase low or low and away if it's out of the zone. 

Q: A question about the HOF rather than the Jays: I read an article about Rafael Palmeiro's chances, in which the writer said he was a four-time all-star. I looked it up, four all-star games, one as a DH. Any idea what the fewest all-star appearances by a HOF is, especially one with those kind of stats? With those career stats, why was he left off the roster so often? Anyone else of his calibre remotely in that situation whom you can recall?
Nick Martin,
Winnipeg

A: Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Wee Willie Keeler...zero all-star games. Of course the all-star game was not invented until Chicago Tribune sports editor Arch Ward suggested it as a one-time event at Comiskey Park in 1933. But yes, Palmeiro's total of four all-star games is low. He was never voted in by the fans because he was mostly an under-the-radar power hitter at a position that was populated by more popular bashers in his era. Palmero hit 95 homers in his first 3,270 at-bats with the Cubs and Rangers, then broke out with real power numbers in 1993, hitting 99 homers in his next 1,587 at bats in Texas over 1993-95. But by that time, in the minds of fan voters, he was a secondary star. For the rest of the '90s, the starting first base job at the ASG went to John Olerud, Frank Thomas, Tino Martinez, Jim Thome and Jason Giambi. Yes, four is a low total for Palmeiro but not a big factor in Hall voting.

Q: Richard,

With the Royals trading Greinke and stocking up with more young talent. Do you think A.A. has approached them on the availabilty of Alex Gordon and one of their young first base prospect Butler, Kila Ka'aihue and Eric Hosmer, with the Jays lacking a true 1st and 3rd base prospect in the minors what would a package of Gordon and one of the 1st base prospects cost the Jays?
Scott Cochrane,
Niagara on the Lake

A: I am pretty sure that Anthopoulos has investigated with the Royals on all the young, talented, controllable players that they have. He does that with every team and takes notes just so that he has a gauge on every team when he talks to them. He also uses that info when trying to bring other teams in for his popular “three-ways”. It's impossible to say what to would take to get any of those players, but it's clear that the Jays' major inventory is in young pitching and that the Royals like young pitching.

Q: I see that the Yankees were hit with an $18 million dollar luxury tax. Is that like NATO dues where the U.S. says yeah, yeah, we owe but they don't pay? Is there a due date on that tax? Where does the luxury tax money go? Does it get shared with the "have not" teams? I wouldn't mind a bit of it myself (good glove, no hit).Thanks Richard.
Ditch Dickinson,
Toronto

A: Do you have your own “small-market” problem as well? Then you qualify. Yes, the Yankees have paid up their taxes and yes the money is distributed to the have-nots. The luxury tax is baseball's equivalent of a salary cap and it's the best formula that MLB has ever been able to get as a concession from the uber-powerful players union. I'm not a big salary cap guy anyway. Rich teams in NBA, NHL and NFL are always trying to cheat the system and I'm not a big fan when the most important employee has to be a cap-ologist. No, give me the classic baseball stretch battle for a division between a team stocked with high-priced free agents vs. a team of homegrowns. David vs. Goliath. Good vs. Evil. Even the Red Sox and Yankees have changed and believe in strong farm systems more than in throwing money across the landscape to build a winner.

Q: Just wondering what you think of the following free agents that can potentially help the Jays and won't cost a great deal. Since Jose Bautista prefers staying at his RF position, why not consider a veteran guy who got some power/versatility like Pedro Feliz? Also, should the Jays give Canadian Jeff Francis a shot? He's not going to cost much right? Lastly, for the Closer role, should they bring back Miguel Batista? He's had decent numbers last season.
Raku Ri,
Vancouver

A: Just in examining the remaining free agent list, I would prefer to remain with Jose Bautista at third base and go with a Rajai Davis, Corey Patterson platoon in the outfield, alongside Vernon Wells and Travis Snider. Ideally, Bautista in right with someone else at third is best, but that may be best achieved in trade and that could be for either a quality second or third baseman. Hill could move to third. Jeff Francis would be a nice signing but there must be a problem with years and guarantees. Lastly, Miguel Batista is not a good choice to close at this point in his career and the Jays moving forward. He's a poet, an author, a flake, simply a literary Dotel. Just stick with Dotel and others.