The year's last mailbag

Welcome to the final baseball mailbag of 2011.

For the Jays in 2011 one of the best things that happened was the winter tour being revived. It was a slow process at first to get players involved, but the Jays that participated seemed to find a new appreciation of Canada and for Jays fans across the country.

The newfound cheering section is led by J.P., Arencibia, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and, of course, Brett Lawrie. The Jays should be hoping this has a spinoff effect with all their young polayers and future free agents making the prospect of playing in Canada not so much the Siberia it was perceived as when Mark Lemongello famously asked when traded to the Jays, “Do they speak American up there?”

Happy New Year and my resolution is to make sure I do a mailbag every week because I always find out what the real fans are thinking. All the best to my readers.    

Q-Hi Richard

This is actually a non Blue Jays question for you. It's rather alarming to see the player exodus that is occurring in Oakland. There seems to be something fundamentally wrong when Oakland is starting to trade young controllable type players like Gonzalez and Bailey. I know Billy Beane is clamouring for a new stadium in San Jose, but the purging of young established major league players, and then turning the team into a glorified Triple A team is extremely unfair to the denizens of Oakland. Can Bud Selig not get involved in this somehow? At the end of the day, MLB is a product to market, and then sell, and the deterioration of this product in Oakland would surely raise some alarm bells in the commissioner's office, would it not not?

Thanks,

Zaki A., Milton

A-The A's off-season should be a concern but mainly for A's fans in terms of the ability to compete in 2012. However there's not much that can be done by Bud Selig because the trades that GM Billy Beane made for have been legitimate baseball trades bringing back decent packages of minor-league prospects for talented major-league players. The difference with the Charlie Finley's A's of the '70s is that there was a lot of cash involved and no players. That was the reasoning for then-commissioner Bowie Kuhn stepping in for the best interests of the game when the A's tried to sell outfielder Joe Rudi's contract. In this case, the citizens of San Jose are the ones that should be excited because by the time these A's are ready to compete, the team will likely be playing in Silicon Valley. The A's since the end of last season have lost all three starting outfielders and traded Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, Craig Breslow, Andrew Bailey and Trystan Magnuson. In fact, production for the sequel to the movie Moneyball is underway. It's called Honey I Shrunk the A's and instead of Brad Pitt will star Pauly Shore.

 

Q-Hi Richard,

So...several weeks away from training camp to begin and all AA has done is bring in Sergio Santos and Jeff Mathis. Is it so hard to sign Oswalt for one year plus an option? It seems other GMs beat AA this year in making trades. The OF is clogged up. I really don't see where AA is heading. Time is running out! I hope people stop taking about Darvish. No more please.

Happy Holidays Richard!

Kam H., Richmond Hill

A-I think free agent Roy Oswalt would be a good fit for the Jays, given what has happened to Anthopoulos and the winter of his malcontent. Oswalt, 34, is coming off injury and has now admitted that he would settle for a one year deal to prove himself and re-establish his credentials for one more free-agent contract next year. Oswalt has seven seasons of 200+ innings and would be a solid influence on Jays young starters. The Jays have a ton of young pitchers that are a years or two away. If Oswalt would sign for a year plus a mutual option at market value, it would be a solid move for the Jays in 2012. I think the market for Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez surprised Anthopoulos, because as we well know, he sets his own value on a player he is pursuing in terms of money or players and will not chase. That means he likely set less value on the two traded pitchers that he had interest in who each would have helped the Jays compete immediately. Considering how this winter's trade market has surprised AA, he would be well-advised to try a short-term free agent deal with Oswalt. If not Oswalt, then a little down the chart, fitting in as a No. 4 should be Rich Harden. 

 

Q-Surprised you didn't mention Jon Niese of the Mets as a starting pitcher the Blue Jays would have interest in. Are the Jays committed to not trading the catching prospect D'Arnaud? Rumor had it that that's one of the people Sandy Alderson was targetting.

 

A-What am I missing about Jon Niese? He looks very similar to Brett Cecil in terms of age, experience and record and that's what the Jays are trying to upgrade on. As far as catcher Travis D'Arnaud and his availability, if there was an untouchable in the minor-league system, he might be the guy. The Eastern League MVP impressed manager John Farrell tremendously this past spring and when he is ready to play in the majors, having both J.P. Arencibia and D'Arnaud will be a nice problem to have. 

 

Q-Hi Richard

The Jays are missing opportunities to build their fan base. Rogers has muddled the opportunity to catch the Yankees and Red Sox. Rogers is too cheap. I am tired of Anthopolous looking for 'young and controllable' players instead of getting the best players. Young and controllable really means cheap and not reach their peak and when they do, hope they sign somewhere else for draft picks. There is no commitment to winning in the organization and Anthopolous needs to take some public relations classes.

David T., Mississauga

 

A-Actually, the Jays philosophy for building a fan base os the same as it is for building a roster. They could sign a big-name free agent that would get them some casual fans into the ballpark for a year or two, but would not help them win. However, those fans would leave again. They are looking for a young and controllable fan base that will stay with them for the long term. I believe that instead of calling Rogers cheap, maybe a better word is cautious, after the experience they had with J.P. Ricciardi and ending up eating $10 million for the final year of B.J. Ryan. Rogers would love to win, not becaise they love baseball, but because of the impact it would have on TV ratings and wireless purchasing of Jays' properties and access to programming. They would be willing to invest in players if they knew they could make money down the road. It's up to AA to convince them of that. Hasn't happened yet.

 

Q-AA has always said that he does not find good value in the free agent market since other teams overpay for pitchers. He emphasizes that we will pursue upgrades through trade instead. However, it seems to me that the trade market for top of the line pitchers is also over-priced. I think that both the Reds and the Nationals traded too many of their top prospects for Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez. I can't blame AA for not netting either of these players - I'm glad he didn't since it probably would have meant having to trade away Alvarez, McGuire, D'Arnaud (or enter in names of other top Jay prospects), plus more. Do you think that AA has misread the trade market for pitchers? Wouldn't pursuing free agency (Jackson, Kuroda, Oswalt) make more sense for the Jays given that getting a top-end starter through trade will cost too many of the Jays top prospects?

Wade H., New Westminster, B.C.

 A-I've always felt that the caveat in free agency was that you are paying for accomplishments done for the previous team, instead of what you believe they will be doing for you. I believe the whole process of free agency is changing as player agents and free agents see the landscape of what has happened this year. There is a huge number of talented players that have not got a sniff this winter in free agency. Look at Prince Fielder. The guy should have a job by now. I believe that starting this summer and next fall you will see young players in their later arbitration years before free agency signing long-term deals with their own team rather than exploring the dark and lonely world of free agency. Since there are fewer compensatory draft picks except for the truly elite, there is less incentive to letting players walk. As for the trade market, I agree that the Latos and Gonzalez markets were higher than anticipated and that may have set AA on his heels. I also agree that, especially in the case of Gonzalez, pitchers that the Jays would have had to give up to get him may end up being better tan Gio in three years. So why make that deal. If the Jays want to make a deal, AA will have to re-set his sights.  

 

Q-Hi Richard,

I feel like I'm in the extreme minority, but I feel that any of the criticism that Alex Anthopolous has received this offseason regarding spending in free agency or for not being so 'PR Friendly' is completely unwarranted for the following reasons...

1-The Jays in the past few years have spent more than just about anyone in international free agency, the draft and in scouting. They may not be the sexiest ways to spend money, but it's clear that 'payroll parameters' aren't an issue if they are being spent in the right places (not free agency).

2-Every major move the team has made in the last two years except for the Halladay deal were never reported by any writers or bloggers until the moment they happened. Similarly, many of the rumors that have surfaced about the Jays being interested in specific players have never come to fruition. In fact, many of the rumors surrounding the team have seemed to be more along the lines of fiction than anything that has come to be.

3-Regarding making splashes in free agency and in signing players to big money contracts, nobody seems to remember how well that worked for us in the latter years of the Ricciardi regime with BJ Ryan, AJ Burnett and Vernon Wells. In fact, history has shown that these big money contracts never pan out for the teams that sign them. 

Signing a player like Prince Fielder isn't the answer and I don't believe that the team as it is currently will be the team that is around on Opening Day. Don't we need to back off a bit as fans and recognize that the team as it is currently is in a better spot to win now and in the future than it was at this time last year?

Dan Mc., Toronto

 

A-I'm not sure that you're in the extreme minority in terms of your view of AA. I'm also not sure where the term “PR friendly” originated when it comes to Anthopoulos, but that was never the issue, even in the case of Yu Darvish. It's more a matter of managing and being consistent with expectations of when fans could expect the Jays to compete. Expectations were high and encouraged by the Jays that heading into the off-season they would do everything in their power to compete in 2012 -- while of course staying within the parameters of young and controllable. That's their identity. That's not necessarily competing at cross-purposes. If the Jays had been going seriously after Darvish, it would have signalled that once losing the posting bid, they would re-focus those resources on other options to improve, but if they weren't serious and were intent on keeping their wallet closed this off-season, then maybe 2013-14 is the target. Fans who are thinking about purchasing tickets for 2012 have al least some right to know. There is no problem in remaining quiet regarding talks with other GMs and players that they are in on, but not all GMs are like that. There are grandstanding GMs and agents out there and that's when the Jays get brought in to discussions without representation as having more interest than is warranted. On point No. 3, everyone remembers, especially Anthopoulos himself who was an assistant at the time of the B.J. Deal and learned from it. You are not giving Jays fans enough credit. They are a savvy bunch.  

 

Q-Richard,

An opinion on AA more than question and perhaps you could give your thoughts

. As much as AA has impressed me during his tenure as GM with his baseball moves I think what has impressed me most of all is his handling of the media and fans. Unlike his predecessor his is consistent and does not make emotive baseball moves. He is not seemingly affected by what the fans and media demand of him. He has a plan and is staying the course and for that we should be grateful. This winter has been an excellent demonstration of that. He has not bowed to the pressure of having to make a splash in free agency. When people call for a Fielder signing, post Darvish disappointment he has not budged (by the way how did that work out for the Angels last year when they panicked and traded for Vernon Wells?). So many people make pronouncements on what his obligations are to the fans. In my opinion his one and only obligation is to put a winning product on the field. The fan base may yearn for the Fielders and Darvishes of the world but ultimately success will be achieved through organic growth in a robust minor league system, continued intelligent trades and savvy free agent signings when the time is right. Kudos to AA for his approach thus far, the Jays are far closer to success then they were 3 years ago even if it isn't apparent to everyone. The future is bright, Jays fans should stay patient and most importantly enjoy the journey.

Jonathan S., Mississauga

 

A-He is consistent. He does not get fooled by an 85-win season or depressed by an 81-win season. He has a plan, but sometimes even he can miscalculate the landscape as he may have done in gauging the marketplace for guys like Gio Gonzalez and Mat Latos. To his credit he didn't chase the carrot by reaching in for more of his own prospects to sweeten the pot. But now he needs to find another avenue to improve his rotation ahnd the cloick is ticking. The one great debate surrounds Prince Fielder. Prez Paul Beeston does not like deals longer than five years and also feels that the elite free agents want to play for a proven winner and that at this point any Jays' participation would merely serve to drive up the asking price elsewhere. That may be a somewhat cynical and defeatist view of free agency but it's what Paul believes and he is a key participant in what the Jays do in free agency. 

 

 Q-Mr. Griffith,

Seriously now you wrote this article to ostensibly tell the Blue jays to move on? Is that a classic case of the pot calling the kettle .......Brian Burke broadcasts his trading and drafting goals and strategies and wonders why he can't some deals to close and here you are criticizing AA not playing with his cards face up. Really - this the article you went with.

 Com'on now. You guys, citing unnamed sources, said the Jays were the leading bidders for Darvish & now that you were proven to be wrong (darn B sources) you want full disclosure to silence the sound of your backpedaling.. WOW

John H., Toronto

 

A-AA is fine with playing his trade and free agency cards close to the vest. That has never been an issue and it works well for him. But in the very unique and once in a lifetime Darvish situation, there were sources in New York, Dallas, Japan, Toronto and elsewhere that believed the Jays would win the Darvish bid. Why were they considered frontrunners in so many places. It would be interesting to hear from AA and the Jays and would not affect anything that happens the rest of the winter. And yes they have no obligation to say what they actually bid, but people should read more than just a headline.      

 

Q-Hi Richard,

This whole Darvish scenario seems to me to be more of a media created diversion to force AA into being more open. I admit that it is nice to hear about the Jays but this expectation that all significant moves must happen at or close to the winter meetings or that one or two players are the only solutions to the Jays needs, is ridiculous. We all have to face the fact that this will be a slow build toward contention in whatever year the players come together to make it happen.

Matt M., St. Catharines

 

A-The media does not think deep enough and in concert enough to concoct a created diversion. This does not have to be a slow build, as has been proven in many other situations. As soon as a club convinces its fans that it has to be a slow build and be patient then they have you. #MapleLeafs.

 

Q-Richard,

With February fast approaching us and the Jays roster looking the same as it did at the end of the season with the exception of Santos, the Jays closer. As Fans what moves can we expect between now and February? It seems that the payroll for 2012 will be somewhere in the neighbourhood of 60-70 million, with the Fan base seemingly back into the wave of the Jays, wouldn't it be a disappointment if the payroll is around the same as last season? AA finally has the fans hearts beating and minds interested in the Jays again, it is time for the organization to realize that the fans are just chomping at the bit to get back to the ball park to support a winner. Lets Go Blue Jays.

Scott C., Niagara-on-the-Lake

 

A-I would think that there must be at least one move involving getting rid of an outfielder in trade. At this point, it looks like the search for another bat is on the backburner. The true need is for a rotation starter and whether that is in free agency or in trade remains to be seen. But the Jays have talked about keeping five outfielders which is ludicrous on a 13-man position player roster. I think at some point, maybe even at spring training, they will find a home for Mark Teahen elsewhere, even if it means eating some salary. He is owed $5.5 million for 2012. They have the same warm fuzzy feeling for Teahen that they had for Juan Rivera. It was a contract they took on to be able to complete a trade. The Jays have eight players that can play left field and only two that can play shortstop. They have Eric Thames, Travis Snider, Ben Francisco, Rajai Davis, Teahen, Kelly Johnson, Edwin Encarnacion and Mike McCoy. The other two outfielders, of course are Colby Rasmus in centre and Jose Bautista in right. The Jays also need middle relief help, but that could come through free agency or as a second player in another deal. Relief is a need, but not an issue.   

 

 Q-Your column just now about the evolution of free agency was spot on. My belief is that baseball is making a fundamental shift as a result of every team employing stat geeks and "smarter" more business-savvy GM's. Regional sports networks, TV money, controlling players for 6 years, WAR, FIP are now part of the baseball lexicon.

The question is, where does the game evolve into now? It would appear that the game has reached the point of efficient market hypothesis where the game is supposedly efficient because every team has the same level of scouting and development and thus information. But what's the next trend we will see in the game over the next 5-10 years?

Jason S., San Francisco

 

A-The next trend will see free agency become an afterthought and after four years with the team that developed them, the best players will be locked up at fair free agent prices. The Fielder situation with Scott Boras waiting until Albert Pujols signed then taking the spotlight has backfired and is almost embarrassing for Fielder – if, of course, talking $20 million per year for five years can ever be embarrassing. Plus, there are multiple players out there, with skills, that once dreamed of reaching free agency that are sitting on the open market with nary a sniff of interest at New Year's. Once the dream becomes a nightmare for union members, future players may lose their appetite for what was once a six-year reward. Even millionaires are scared of being homeless. At that point when the sign-your-own philosophy is entrenched, anyone that reaches six-year free agency will have a stigma of injury or there-must-be-a-problem, dropping free agency to the status of a Winners or Marshall's compared to Saks or Calvin Klein. 

 

 Q-Griffin... I highly respect you, and read everything you have to write. Enjoy everything you have to say. And with that comes certain subjects where I totally disagree with your views. You and everyone, need to get over the fact that Joey Votto will likely never become a Blue Jay. Have you ever talked to Joey? If so, have you asked him off the record if he wants to play in his home town? I can tell you... for certain, that unless there is a 180 turn in his person feelings towards this city, that Joey Votto will never become a Blue Jay... With this in mind...let's assuming Lind isnt who we hope he is... do you regret not going after a guy like Fielder now because Joey ain't coming home.

Jason H., Burlington

 

A-Free agency for Votto is two years away. The Etobicoke native is signed and under contract in Cincinnati and who knows what happens at first base for the Jays between now and then. You can't say never is never off of any current emotional feelings about a situation, no matter how real they are at the time. I talk smack about the Star every now and then and if you got me at the wrong moment you might wonder how I could ever work there. Nobody is saying that Votto is a do-or-die solution in two years, but the fact is that it is when he becomes a free agent and it is worth considering for the Jays.    

 

 Q-Richard:

Always trying to learn more about the rules of baseball in regards to player acquisitions, and you are an excellent source. In announcing Kelly Johnson's acceptance of arbitration, A.A. twice made reference to the fact it would not be a 'guaranteed' contract. If the Jays were to find an upgrade at second base before the season started, could they release Johnson? What would be the dollar cost in doing so?
 By the way, I for one am not disappointed they lost out on Darvish, considering the posting price tag.

Bruce S., Courtenay, B.C.

 

A-The rules of arbitration are that two figures are submitted to an independent arbitrator and he has to decide on one number or the other. There is no compromise. It is treated as a non-guaranteed one-year contract so that if a player is released a week before the season starts, he receives 17-percent of his salary or the equivalent of one month out of the six-month pay period.

 

Q-Hi Richard, I wish you seasons greetings and a very happy New Year 2012 - the year of supposed contention for the blue birds or may be not. Hope is fast fading. I salute you for demanding to know what the Jay's offer was for getting to talk to the Japanese pitcher who Texas bid a bit over 50M and won the bid to talk with him and offer him a contract. To-date no one knows what the Jay's bid was, if at all they bid at all or may be they bid incredibly low and got all that publicity that they were the highest bidders etc., which turned out to be just a lot of hoopla. Time is of the essence but perhaps not for the Jays 'powers that be' who are asleep at the wheel. They have not even made a feeble effort to try and get some half decent players to fill in the spots that needed to be filled. It is easy enough to just get bodies, but first rate players is something else. What a sham and disappointment to all those fans of the only baseball team in Canada. Best wishes. Tony D., Toronto

 

A-The best excuse that the Jays may have for lack of movement is that they misread the trade market and were interested, but did not want to chase the asking price for players they wanted that ended up going somewhere else. If I was a fan on the verge of buying season tickets, I would want to know how hard the Jays were pushing to create a winning team for 2012 before I laid down my hard-earned cash. But they don't feel the need to even let that be known. They want the results on the field to speak for themselves, but by that time I may have decided not to buy season tickets. It will be interesting to see if the season-ticket holder love-fest of a year ago takes on a different more sombre tone this February.

 

Q-Are we related

Clarence Griffin, Penticton, B.C.

 

A-I don't think so. The Penticton side of my family are all pig farmers.

 

Griffin: Heading into New Year, Jays no better than fourth place team

The Jays had a well-defined shopping list of roster needs heading into the current off-season. They have taken care of some of that business, purchased or traded for other items on that list, but there's still much work to be done and so little time. As it stands right now, they are no better than a fourth place team in the AL East, and not much better than .500 given that the development of young players is never a predictable curve. 

The Jays' young general manager, Alex Anthopoulos has filled some of his stated needs, starting with backup catcher Jeff Mathis, second baseman Kelly Johnson and closer Sergio Santos. The Jays still need some experienced bullpen depth, led by one lefthanded specialist, and they most definitely still need that much-talked about mid-to-top-of-the-rotation starter.

Much has been made of how they can get that missing piece in the wake of the multiple prospect hauls by first the Padres for Mat Latos and then by the A's for Gio Gonzalez. Clearly, the Cubs would be willing to listen to offers and to part with their young-veteran starter Matt Garza in the right package, with ESPN Chicago's Bruce Levine speculating that the right package from the Jays would have to include an outfielder like Jake Marisnick or Anthony Gose AND a young starter like Kyle Drabek or Deck McGuire. That looks like a reporter thumbing through Baseball America's 2011 Prospect Handbook and coming out with names of outfielders and starting pitchers. It's too much for Garza, but there are other ways to approach the Cubs and the familiar thinking of Theo Epstein. 

That Garza rumour also helps explain why Anthopoulos prefers to remain so secretive about what teams he is dealing with and what players he covets. He does not want the package of prospects necessary to complete a trade to be ratcheted up by public speculation and other GMs that may come into the discussion late because they have heard of the Jays interest. The theory is if they don't get said player, they will at least make it more expensive for a competing team like the Jays to make themselves better.

So while public speculation had the Jays interested in Andrew Bailey from the A's, or Huston Street from the Rockies to fill the need for a closer, Anthopoulos was pestering Chisox GM Kenny Williams to make Santos available even though the Sox closer had just been signed to a four-year plus two option years sweetheart of a deal for the club and who, after all, trades a player at a key position that they just signed to a multi-year deal. Apparently Williams. Sos is John Danks, five-year deal in hand, feeling all that secure?

Oh, the Jays will get their No. 2 or 3 starter before spring training starts, but it will likely be someone less publicly discussed than Garza. The Cubs righthander has value because he has competed successfully in the AL East and is still younger than 30 and controllable for the next two seasons before his free agency, but Anthopoulos sets a value on any player he covets and will not chase beyond that value. It would seem that the Cubs are playing hardball on Garza through the media and it would also seem that Gose or Marisnick AND Drabek or McGuire is a little steep and gives away too much of what is now a very impressive Jays' inventory of prospects for a guy that in three years may not be as valuable as Drabek or McGuire alone.

Make no mistake about it, the Jays do need to improve the rotation by one solid starter if they are going to compete, but it says here odds are the identity of the pitcher that will be added and of the team Anthpoulos is having discussions with has not been accurately identified yet. But the generous packages for Latos and Gonzalez are not helping him out.

If the baseball season was starting on January 1 with current 40-man rosters in place, here is how the AL East would be handicapped.

1-Red Sox: Despite the most graceless swan-dive off a September cliff and out of the playoffs in major-league history, the Red Sox still won 90 games in 2011. That came despite debilitating injuries to the rotation and a horrible season by free agent Carl Crawford. The rotation has a solid threesome at the top with Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buccholz leaving two spots open from among Daniel Bard, Alfredo Aceves and Andrew Miller among others. Dice-K may return by the all-star break. Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon as closer and setup are solid replacements for Jonathon Papelbon and Bard. The offence is solid with Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Adrian Gonzalez, Crawford, Kevin Youkilis and Big Papi Ortiz. Bobby Valentine would really have to mess this up.

2-Rays: Joe Maddon deserved his manager-of-the-year nod and this team has talent. The Rays may not be done making moves but we are talking about if the season started on New Year's Day. With a full season of sensational rookie Matt Moore, added to David Price, James Shields, Jeremy Hellickson and Wade Davis, that is the division's best rotation. Closer might be an issue with Kyle Farnsworth. The Rays are led by Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist, Desmond Jennings and B.J. Upton. These guys are a 90-plus win team.

3-Yankees: This is a team that could win off the fumes of its $210 million payroll from a year ago, or could implode upon unreal expectations by the young Steinbrenners that they can still win the division without any significant additions like in the good old days. The Yankees are tired of paying huge luxury tax penalties. The magic number for paying the tax is $178 million under the new CBA and $189 million in 2014. The Yankees are headed in that direction. In the meantime, they defend the division crown and 97 victories with a sketchy rotation beyond CC Sabathia. How would you feel going in with a Nos. 2-5 of Ivan Nova, A.J. Burnett, Freddy Garcia and Phil Hughes? Of course on many nights they will simply outscore an opponent led by Robinson Cano, Mark Teixeira, Curtis Granderson, Brett Gardner and A-Rod with his new all-German body parts. At what point does Mariano Rivera start to regress?

4-Blue Jays: The Jays rotation has Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow that can be counted on for anything approaching 200 innings. Sure the Jays claim Brett Cecil approached that number of frames, but a lot of that was at Triple-A following his demotion. The rotaton depth is mostly at Double-A and below. Santos has 28 professional innings as a pitcher before earning a spot in the White Sox bullpen. Can you count on continued excellence without ever a step backwards? Henderson Alvarez, Drabek, Dustin McGowan and others can't be counted on as sure things if you are looking for a 90-win season. The Jays have eight players that can handle left field -- Travis Snider, Eric Thames, Rajai Davis, Ben Francisco, Edwin Encarnacion, Mark Teahen, Mike McCoy and Kelly Johnson -- giving them a pool with depth from which to trade. If Opening Day was on Sunday, the Jays woud be an 80-85 win team, just because they have Romero, plus two-time defending MLB home run champ Jose Bautista and can field third baseman Brett Lawrie for a full season. 

5-Orioles: At least there's one given that we can always count on in the division.

 

Griffin: Despite loss of many popular trade targets, Jays have options

The trend of the Jays being seen as bridesmaids continued big-time early this week, when in the space of 24 hours, coveted A's leftander Gio Gonzalez was traded to the Nationals and free-agent outfielder Carlos Beltran signed a deal with the Cardinals for two years and $26 million.

There was no surprise to the length and the dollars in Beltran's contract, so it came down to where did he want to play. How about for the defending champion Cardinals, with a huge hole in the middle of the order in a baseball-crazy town. Perhaps more than coincidentally, the 34-year-old's agent is Dan Lozano, who also represents the departed Albert Pujols. Maybe he thought he owed the Cardinals a favour and Beltran helps.  

The Jays' current off-season has been one of ending up being seen as also-rans in virtually every trade for an established player and in many free-agent signings at their positions of need. Who knows how many negotiations the Jays have actually been interested in being in on, but, face it, it's easy to include the Jays if you're an agent trying to promote your client, because they will always refuse to confirm or deny. Make no mistake, there is still time for GM Alex Anthopoulos to get the job done, but he needs to step up the pace and pull the trigger, likely on a deal being made behind the scenes, to help his roster for 2012. 

The Jays went into the off-season needing to strengthen themselves at second base, back-up catcher, bullpen closer and several middle relievers, a mid-to-top-of-the-rotation starter and a middle-of-the-order bat, most likely in left field.

Anthopoulos, as is his personal philosophy, preferred to do most of this roster shuffling via trades rather than leaning on an overpriced, overrated free agency system. He planned on utilizing a very deep farm system of prospects, many of them pitchers, as inventory. Two months into the off-season, Anthopoulos still has much work to do with less than two months to go before pitchers and catchers report to training camp in Dunedin. 

As the New Year approaches, the Jays' GM has only a short portion of his wish-list filled. He obtained catcher Jeff Mathis for non-prospect lefthander Brad Mills. He merely was an interested observer as second baseman Kelly Johnson unexpectedly accepted arbitration for one year of non-guaranteed salary, solving second base in the short term, but costing the club two draft picks in June. Anthopoulos obtained a closer, Sergio Santos, giving up the first of his deep inventory of talented minor league starters, Nestor Molina. Then he obtained righthanded reserve outfielder Ben Francisco for lefthander Frank Gailey. 

He still needs a mid-to-top of the rotation starter, several relievers and a strong bat. The arm and the bat were his most important needs. Gonzalez and Beltran were in that mix. The Jays were rumoured to be in on Mat Latos who went to the Reds. The packages to the A's for Gonzalez and to the Padres for Latos were both more than the Jays were willing to send. Anthopoulos sticks to his evaluations and won't chase in trades or free agency.

Then there was John Danks. The Jays and many others were seen to be in on the White Sox lefthander, having discussed the possibility with GM Kenny Williams while talking about Santos. But the same day Gonzalez went to the Nats, Danks was signed to a multi-year extension in Chicago.

While all of these perceved lost trades and signings for the Jays had been percolated on the media front burner, as Anthopoulos has often proven in the past, he does his best work behind closed doors, wherein the Jays' trade or free agent signing is announced with little in the way of warning or fanfare. Examples include Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells, Kelly Johnson, Shaun Marcum and Santos. The Colby Rasmus trade was as close to a leak as was out there, but likey because of the three-way aspect and the details needing to be tied up with the White Sox and Cardinals.

A quick look at the top 3-4 starters in the 30 major-league starting rotations, the type of players that Anthopoulos would be targeting, show that there are still many legitimate options out there that just have not been publicized.

The more publicized include Matt Garza of the Cubs; Wade Davis and James Shields of the Rays; Gavin Floyd of the White Sox; Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris of the Astros; A.J. Burnett of the Yankees; Jeremy Guthrie of the O's; Ervin Santana of the Angels; Cole Hamels of the Phillies; Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison of the Rangers; Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey and Mike Leake of the Reds and the list goes on. In free agency, the best available are Roy Oswalt, Edwin Jackson and Rich Harden.

A nice round number to review the Jays roster again would be on January 18, the deadline for the Rangers to sign Yu Darvish to a major-league deal. There's a good chance the Jays roster by that point will have solved at least one of those problems. When it comes to Anthopoulos and anticipating his moves, look for the road less travelled.

Happy Holidays. 

 

 

Griffin: Jays need to be transparent on Darvish and move on

So if not $50 million then what actually was the Jays' posted offer on Yu Darvish?

If the Jays weren't in fact close to the Rangers' reported winning bid of $51.7 million, which secondary Jays' sources at one time seemed eager to leave teed up as truth for public consumption, when given the chance to correct, then what was it?

People who claim to have inner knowledge of the final bidding are jumping in with finger-wagging certainty that the Rangers won by "a country mile" and it was "not even close". But what exactly does that mean? Even if a new number is presented as fact, is it accurate? If the posting system is working properly then the only people that should know the Jays' actual dollar offer are the Jays and several people at the Commissioner's Office. Only the winning bid is announced. It's up to the Jays to end speculation and move on.

The Jays, in the club's third year under GM Alex Anthopoulos, have had a hard and fast policy of total silence whenever it comes to speculation on anything to do with players and player acquisition. That includes refusal to confirm interest in any trades, in identifying other clubs for discussion and offers to free agents, including the Japanese star, Darvish.

It worked well for them in the cases of Roy Halladay and the Phillies, Cuban free-agents Aroldis Chapman and Adeiny Hechavarria, the contract negotiations with agent Bean Stringfellow and Jose Bautista and last January's dealing of Vernon Wells to the Angels. Wells and Halladay both appreciated the Jays' close-to-the-vest approach.

But that policy sometimes leads to reported Jays participation and in interest being exagerrated and perpetuated, in rumours not being nipped in the bud and continuing to grow. That then encourages media searching out secondary sources, subject to interpretation. There Are even top player agents that will include the Jays as being interested in their client in order to drive up the price, confident that Anthopoulos won't confirm or deny. It's always been clear that there are times when the club would benefit from total transparency. Darvish is one of those times.

On Wednesday morning, Anthopoulos had staged a 15-minute conference call with local Toronto media to say nothing. He coyly deflected questions of what had been Jays' interest in Darvish, of having made any offer at all and of the dollar amount that was reported by national sources said to be runner-up to the Rangers' reported winning bid of $51.7 million.

He must have known that being recognized as runner-up would generate fan support since he would be perceived to have made a sincere effort. In this case the speculation was helping the team's off-season image and interest. But, now, with all the denials of the $50 million bid that had been reported in multiple outlets elsewhere before being confirmed here, angles offered about the plucky Jays being competitive for Darvish, the previous fan and media support is turning to frustration and anger at being played. Are the Jays trying to take unwarranted credit for aggressiveness to curry public support?

It was reported early in the process from important sports souces around baseball since the bidding on Darvish had closed the week before that the Jays were in at $40-50 million and that they were considered front-runners, along with the Rangers. Those sources of a rich Jays offer included the New York Post, the Dallas Morning News, ESPN.com and CBS Sports, among others. Right up until the moment the Hakkaido Nippon Ham Fighters announced they had accepted the winning bid on Tuesday night, the Jays were being hailed in many circles as the likely winners of the posting. The Jays officially remained silent. Did they think they had a chance or were they just smiling and taking in the fan fervour?

Policy is nice, but in this particular case the Jays need to step up and make an exception to their standard opaqueness. If the Jays indeed made a good-faith bid to Nippon Ham, even if it was lower than reported, if the Jays were expecting to have a chance to win the rights to Darvish but underestimated the Rangers' interest, who had claimed publicly that they didn't have much money, then nothing should change with fans in terms of the perceptions of their aggressiveness towards improving and contending in the off-season.

Those who support what the team is doing will now expect them to change direction from Darvish quickly and throw all their resources into adding young controllable talent via trades to make them a contender in 2012. One clear need remains a starting pitcher, the mid-rotation guy that would have been Darvish if they had won the posting.  

But if the posted bid for Darvish was token, just to be on the record as having interest then that changes all perceptions. That means that they sat back in this case, watching the way they were lumped with the leaders for Darvish and smiled knowing that they weren't serious players for the prize, but willing to take fans and media kudos for their efforts. That's wrong and that's why they need to set the record straight.

In either case, a good challenge to throw back at the Jays right now is to give them the same 30 day window that the Rangers have to sign Darvish and check back in with Anthopoulos on January 18 at 5:00 p.m. Challenge the Jays to makes moves in the next month that make the roster stronger than it would have been if they had been putting all their efforts into negotiating with Darvish.

Darvish may well turn into a legitimate #1-2 starter but part of the attraction in chasing him was the sizzle that he brought to the off-season. There is still the likelihood the Jays made a good-faith bid for Darvish, but public sentiment is turning aganst them.

Anthopoulos can only gain back the attention and support of Jays fans by making some smart, aggressive, baseball oriented moves in the next 30 days. Not just for the sake of spending the $52 million that they would have had to win the Darvish sweepstakes to prove they're not cheap, but by staying within the team's philosophy of sustainability.

However that does not also mean they should not step up in the next week and make an announcement on the Darvish bid coming clean and moving on. Stay tuned.

 

Griffin: Darvish contract bid rights awarded to Rangers

The Jays may or may not have been surprised, but their fans are stunned. One day in advance of a mandated deadline of Tuesday at 5:00 p.m. as outlined in the posting agreement between MLB and Japanese professional baseball, the Hakkaido Nippon Ham Fighters ended five days of wild speculation surrounding star righthander Yu Darvish. The Fighters announced that they have accepted Texas's winning bid, which according to Yahoo.comis $51.7 million for a 30-day window to negotiate a free agent deal with Darvish. The Fighters knew the amount, but on Monday were told the winning team.

This now allows the Rangers' GM Jon Daniels to negotiate exclusively with agents Don Nomura and Arn Tellem for a multi-year free-agent contract with the 25-year-old Darvish. Back in August, Daniels and Jays' GM Alex Anthopoulos each made the trip to Japan to see Darvish pitch in person, leading to speculation that the Jays and Rangers were the front-runners in the process.

The Rangers' negotiationg window expires on January 19. The dollar amount, submitted in a sealed bid to the MLB offices in New York last Wednesday, will be paid to the Fighters only if Texas successfully reaches agreement on a new major-league contract with the star Japanese hurler.

Darvish was 18-6, with a 1.44 ERA in 2011. The 6-5 righthander, armed with a repertoire of an estimated seven major-league ready pitches, allowed 156 hits in 232 innings, with 36 walks and 276 strikeouts. The 2011 strikeout total was the highest in the league in 19 years. Yu's career ERA in five-plus seasons in Japan is 1.99, with two Sawamura Awards, the equivalent of MLB's Cy Young. He made his debut for the Fighters on June 16, 2005 with eight shutout innings.

The Rangers' winning bid is the highest ever posted for a Japanese player's rights by a major-league team, eclipsing the $51.11 million bid sent in by the Boston Red Sox for the 25-year-old Seibu Lions righthandser, Daisuke Matsuzaka on November 6, 2006. On December 6, 2006, the Red Sox signed Dice-K to a six year contract for $52 million. The second highest posting bid came for pitcher Kei Igawa, $26.1 million by the Yankees less than a month after Dice-K's bid.

There has been speculation that Darvish will be seeking a five-year contract for around $75 million, allowing him to sign a second more lucrative deal down the road when he is just 31-years-old. Free agent lefthander C.J. Wilson, the Rangers' starting ace in 2011, earlier in December agreed to terms of a five-year, $77 million deal with the Angels. Darvish has never pitched a major-league inning and would be considered a rookie in 2012. The Rangers are twice defending AL champions.  

 

Griffin: Getting to know Yu

A source that has been covering and scouting the Japanese professional baseball leagues all of this past summer and has watched most of Yu Darvish's starts, indicates that the dominant feeling around Japan today is that the Jays are indeed the winners in the Yu Darvish sweepstakes. That doesn't mean it's 100 per cent fact. It's amazing that in this era of social networking no true confirmation had leaked as of Friday afternoon. 

The winning bid for the 30-day window to negotiate with Darvish will officially be announced by MLB on Tuesday, Dec. 20 at 5 p.m. ET at which time the Nippon-Ham Fighters, Darvish's current team will also learn for the first time the actual identity of the team with the higest bid. Right now all the Fighters know is the amount and in the interim they must decide to accept or reject it. 

My source in Japan sends some interesting updated info on Yu's season. The 6-5 righthander gained 22 lbs. this year and upped his velocity on the four-seam fastball to a top speed of 97 m.p.h. The righthander in 2011 posted the highest Japanese strikeout total in the past 19 years, but failed to win the Sawamura Award, the Japanese eqivalent of Cy Young. That was captured by Masahiro Tanaka, of the Rakuten Eagles.

Darvish' father was an Iranian soccer player who attended school in the States, meeting his Japanese-born wife in St. Petersburg, Fla., according to Rays' beat writer Marc Topkin.

That familiarity would suggest an easier transition to North American customs than was experienced by guys like Dice-K and bodes well for Darvish's immediate impact.

Yu is currently in the midst of divorce proceedings from his wife, a Japanese actress, and is rumoured to be dating a young Japanese golf pro.

For those interested in the history of posting, here are the four winning bids of over $10 millon since the process began in '99. Prior to this year there had been a total of 15 contracts posted by a player's Japanese league team, with eight playing in the majors. 

1-Dice-K Matsuzaka...$51.11 millon by the Red Sox on 11/2/06

2-Kei Igawa...$26.0 million by the Yankees on 11/17/06

3-Ichiro Suzuki...$13.13 million by the Mariners on 11/9/00

4-Kaz Ishii...$11.26 million by the Dodgers on 1/3/02

Griffin: Darvish bid well worth the effort for Jays

The uniqueness of the posting process for Japanese baseball free agents like Yu Darvish is that not even the team with the winning offer is supposed to know they won until four days after the close of bidding. But, of course, in major-league baseball, things have a way of leaking and Tuesday is a long way off.  

This is not like a regular auction where you can go back in and tug your ear and bid again and bump the offer by a dollar and have somebody knock you off the board, etc. until the guy pounds the gavel and says "Sold to the guy in the Blue Jays hat." This is one sealed bid. That's it, that's all.

Of course, the Jays are as tightlipped as any sports organization out there, but even Jays' GM Alex Anthopoulos doubts the news will hold until Dec. 20. The following is analysis of what I would have done if I was Anthopoulos. Sometimes he listens.

What would be a good bid for the Jays? Let's see. Go big or go home will be the motto. Last time there was a Japanese star of this stature posted, it was Daisuke Matsuzaka and the Red Sox winning bid was for $51 million. The Sox were rumoured to be $10 million north of the runner-up Dodgers. Who knew?

Now, five years later, it's time to review and compare this year's contenders for Darvish.

1-The Red Sox must feel they were burned by Dice-K. Even with Bobby Valentine as skipper, who managed successfully in Japan, they are not in the mood. Scratch them.

2-The Yankees have had nothing but bad experiences with Japanese pitchers starting with the late Hideki Irabu. Besides they had to re-up CC Sabathia, just re-signed Freddy Garcia and are looking to have someone take A.J. Burnett off their hands.

3-The Dodgers, unless Nippon Ham is willing to take Mrs. McCourt as a down-payment, are in financial straits until their ownership issues are settled. She's a fighter.

4-The Angels just had a one-day spending binge last Thursday landing both first-baseman Albert Pujols and lefthander C.J. Wilson for a total of $331 million. Owner Arte Moreno would have to sell a lot more billboards to think of posting seriously for Darvish.

5-The Mariners have Ichiro and a long history with Japanese baseball, so one would expect that they will have to have posted on Darvish, perhaps hoping to lose by just "that much."

6-The Nationals were said to be in, but they own 10-percent of their own broadcast rights for a little while longer and contending in that division will be a long climb with the Phils, the Marlins and the Braves ahead of them. It would be a surprise if they won the bid. 

So that leaves as true contenders, unless there's a mystery team out there, the Jays, the Rangers and the Cubs. The Cubs have Theo Epstein as president and he knows all about the Dice-K process, so it would seem likely that given how much they overbid last time, that $51 million might be his upper limit.

As for the Rangers, that's the team to watch out for other than the Jays. They have a huge new broadcast deal and even though it doesn't kick in for a few years, leaves them confident about their financial future. The question is are they heavy into Prince Fielder to counteract the Angels and Pujols. The Jays hope so.

That leaves Anthopoulos to make his decision on how much to post. Logic dictates that a bid of $52 million would be smart, expecting that it's going to cost you combined for Yu over $100 million in posting fees and a 5-6 year contract anyway. Remember: "Go big or go home." If someone else posts higher and you lose out, then God bless them. At least you can go back to Jays fans and not feel embarrassed about losing out.

There are solid reasons why winning the bid for the two-time MVP of the Japanese League, the 25-year-old Iranian-Japanese star would be great for the Jays. It's not just the untapped local Asian market and the 300-day infomercial for tourism in Japan.

Recall that when the bidding was ongoing for Aroldis Chapman, the Jays were rumoured to be hot and heavy into the hunt. Nobody believed the Jays were in because the previous regime had abandoned international free-agency as the domain of the big-market, free-spending teams and perception became reality. But when the dust had settled and the Reds had won the straight-up, no-posting, no-draft, Chapman free-agent bid, the Jays were on the podium. In fact, the Jays' brash young GM later let it be known that he had the go-ahead from Rogers ownership to bump up to the winning bid but backed off of his own volition because he thought it was above the value he had placed on the fireballing Cuban.

Then when young Cuban shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria hit the market, by that time nobody was surprised that the Jays were among the frontrunners and the industry just slightly taken aback that Toronto won the bidding. But that served to put the baseball world on notice that the Jays were a free-agent force to be reckoned with. Now comes Darvish and the possibility of paying more than $110 million in combined posting and salary - and the Jays and Rangers are being touted as the frontrunners. 

The Jays need to be perceived inside their own clubhouse and out as major players in the marketplace. They need to become a mid-to-big market team again. That's why CEO Paul Beeston has stressed being a coast-to-coast Canadian team and stressed having a farm team in Vancouver, maybe more to come. That gives the Jays a fanbase of 35 million people and rockets them way out of small-market status. No excuses to compete.

And it's not just the Dallas Morning News, the Toronto Star and ESPN.com and CBS Sportline.com and FoxSports.com that are spreading the news. 

Three times in the spacious lobby of the Anatole Hotel, between Sunday and Thursday, Anthopoulos was swarmed as he crossed the lobby by Japanese cameramen and reporters looking for an analysis of the Darvish situation and where the Jays stood. How do you say, "We don't talk about specific players," in Japanese. Just that one line would have served Alex well. Now the internet is abuzz and Twitter is a-twitter. 

The news could come out at any time, but negotiations can only begin next Tuesday. 

 

Jays mailbag: New roster leaves fans wanting more

 

There's an interesting discussion each year, the week the Lou Marsh trophy is awarded for Canada's athlete of the year. This year, in what was a wide-open vote announced on Tuesday, the winner was world champion figure skater Patrick Chan.

The great thing about the Marsh award is that it includes all Canadian athletes -- male and female, pro and amateur, team sports and individual. No doubt there is a huge difference in the level of the Marsh competition whenever it's an Olympic year, which this year was not.

As such, the selection of the figure skater Chan for being undefeated in the calendar year of 2011 and setting several world records is a controversial one. After all, what is a world record in figure skating other than a panel of judges all deciding that that skate was pretty damn good. To me, sports that require judging are somehow sketchy when it comes to athlete of the year.

My choice, no surprise here, would be a baseball player in a year in which the Marsh field was unfortunately narrowed by a concussion to Sidney Crosby, no Olympics, either summer or winter and a Wimbledon injury to emerging tennis star Milos Raonic. But, in terms of baseball, despite another great season by Etobicoke's Joey Votto, my choice would have been Brewers' closer John Axford.

Axford's is a great Canadian rags to riches story that we love as a nation of underdogs. The 28-year-old native of Port Dover, Ont., was 2-2, with a 1.95 ERA in 74 games. He was 46-for-48 in save appearances as the Brewers swept to an NL Central title and a first round win over the D'backs. Certainly his numbers don't match up to Eric Gagne's Cy Young season for the Dodgers in '03, but how long did Roger Maris's home run record hold up. It doesn't mean there wasn't greatness in between.

Here's why Axford deserves recognition for more than just the raw numbers. The gangly kid with the floppy moustache could have quit but prevailed. He attended Notre Dame, had Tommy John elbow surgery in 2003 and was signed only after his final year of eligibility at Canisius College as a 23-year-old in '06 by the Yankees. Great arm, no command, he was released by the Yankees in December '07.

Axford may have thought he was done as a pitcher. He had had a failed stint in the Intercounty League for the Brantford Red Sox where he could not seem to throw strikes and had famously worked as a bartender at East Side Mario's in Ancaster. Would you like fries with that penne? Don't forget to tip your waiter.

There is also personal history for me here. In February of '08, my then-15-year-old son Patrick was asked by the fabulously energetic Rick Johnston, owner of The Baseball Zone in Mississauga if he could please catch this tall struggling kid who was trying to make a comeback and get signed.

Pat caught John Axford's 15-minute bullpen before hitting the cages getting ready for his Oakville A's season. Afterwards he praised Axford's arm but shook his head at his command.

A month later the Brewers signed Axford to a minor-league deal. They were one of the few teams that could make it through snowdrifts to see him tryout for scouts. That's a Canadian success story in itself that should be rewarded.

Axford in '10 replaced a future Hall-of-Famer Trevor Hoffman and in 2011 held off the challenge of '02 World Series star Francisco Rodriguez. Axford is also an award-worthy Canadian in that he has a tremendous relationship with his fans on Twitter and has never forgotten his roots despite reaching heady heights of success in his sport. He would have been my choice. At least, in an announcement made on Wednesday, he gets to share the 2011 Tip O'Neill Award with Votto, as voted by the Canadian Baseball Hall-of-Fame at St. Marys.

On to the Mailbag.       

Q-Hi Richard,

I am a long time Blue Jays fan and about to lose my mind, the time to put up and shut up is now. We have endured JP and his arrogant ways and now AA and his promises, the honeymoon is over we have heard 2012 for the past three seasons. We have seen salary shed with Wells, Rios, Halladay and others with little free agent spending. It's time to recapture our excitement. Give Fielder $250 million, trade for Hanley Ramirez get that one impact Top-3 rotation starting pitcher. These moves are doable, it’s not fantasy; sign the check for Prince, send Hechavarria, Lind and a young highly-touted prospect pitcher to Florida for Ramirez.... Can you imagine that lineup? Instead what do we get? Francisco and whoever that guy from Chicago is....Are you kidding me? Time to put up.

Scott S., Sudbury

A-The time to win is definitely 2012. Fans demand it. Jose Bautista won't say it but he wants it now. The time to get indignant about lack of progress toward that end is not now, it's the opening of training camp if the Jays have not done anything more to address that goal. Anthopoulos has two more months to work on his roster, but if this is what you get, then he has had a bad winter. Let's see, Brad Mills, Nestor Molina and Frank Gailey for Jeff Mathis, Sergio Santos and Ben Francisco. AA said he was going to use the organization's starting pitching depth to bring in talent to help the Jays win now. That's three minor-league starters, one of them, Molina, really good, for a backup catcher, a closer that has done it for less than one full year and a platoon left fielder. The Jays are not a better team now than they were at the end of the 2011 season. But there are moves other than Fielder and Hanley Ramirez that could be made to create a winner. However, the clock is ticking on AA's winter plans.

Q-With the recent trade for Ben Francisco is this a clear signal the Jays are going to trade either Thames or Snider for pitching and if so which one? And what are the chances of landing Fielder? I see a 2012 lineup as such Escobar SS; Lawrie 3B; Bautista RF; Fielder 1B; Arencibia C; Rasmus CF; Lind DH; Thames/Snider LF; Johnson 2B.

Chris A., Hamilton

A-I would say that the current plan is to use either Snider or Thames in a trade package for a mid-rotation starting pitcher. Right now, as roster players with major-league experience that have the ability to play left field, the Jays have eight players -- Snider, Thames, Rajai Davis, Ben Francisco, Kelly Johnson, Edwin Encarnacion??, Mark Teahen and  Mike McCoy. That is a second Jays' pool of strength like minor-league starting pitching from which to deal. Pitchers out there that are available include Gio Gonzalez of the A's, Wandy Rodriguez of the Astros, Matt Garza of the Cubs, John Danks of the White Sox, Jair Jurrjens of the Braves and either Wade Davis or James Shields of the Rays. Anthopoulos' style is to allow opposing GMs to make their choice of which player from a particular pool they would like, so there is no internal Jays preference of which player, Snider or Thames, stays.

Q-Dear Richard,

Are the Jays trying to lose so management can collect a cash bonanza when the team has to move to another city ? We just signed Ben Francisco, yet another in the long line of overage, under-performing mediocrities. Did AA learn nothing from Corey Patterson, Juan Rivera, etc? Why was career minor leaguer Mike McCoy batting leadoff? Why was DeWayne Wise brought back a third time? Why was Brian Tallet brought back - mercifully briefly? All this supports my semi-facetious conspiracy theory. For 2012 this team has one starting pitcher (Romero), one prospect (Alvarez), one five hundred pitcher ( Morrow — please no more about his potential upside! This is it ). Cecil is done. Luis Perez — another career minor leaguer . Drabek — rushed too fast, a chronic problem in the modern game. And is Tony LaRussa right about Colby Rasmus? Another 75 - 80 win season is in the bag.

Selby Martin, Toronto

A-Moving the Jays to another city as an eventual goal is a concept that is so far out there that it renders the rest of your rant as insignificant. Corey Patterson was insurance for a shallow position. Juan Rivera was a necessary contract that AA was forced to take in the Vernon Wells trade. McCoy batting leadoff was injuries. Wise was minor-league inventory whose best-before date has clearly been reached. Tallet was a Rivera-like throw-in to allow the Rasmus deal to be completed and was quickly let go. Nice of you to be able to sum up the Jays 2012 rotation in 42 words. As for Rasmus, there certainly are questions about his ability to handle major-league pressures, but the question becomes did Tony LaRussa merely recognize Rasmus's problems in coping or did he help to create them? Spring training will begin to answer the Rasmus riddle when he gets a fresh start with his new team and tries to fit in. The fact is he was a mess last season after the trade.  

Q-Is Travis Snider about to be traded? Today the Jays picked up Ben Francisco who seems to be the ideal platoon guy (against lefties). One of Snider or Thames would be traded in that scenario. Also, today the Jays announced their winter tour schedule. Eric Thames is included. Last year I believe Travis Snider was on this. Interestingly enough Brett Cecil is also included this year. I wonder if management is happy with his offseason weight loss and has decided to keep around. Perhaps this mean Kyle Drabek is gone too. Trading Drabek and Snider would probably net us less now since 2011 was a setback year for both.

Jason S., San Francisco

A-The best thing for Snider and his career may be a trade where he can start over with a clean slate. His defensive abilities have improved last spring working with Torey Lovullo. He has major-league power and has a base-runner's speed. He is a good athlete and a good, respectful presence in the clubhouse. There may be a little too much made of which players are attending certain events like the Jays' winter tour. Vernon Wells was the centrepiece last January and how did that turn out for him? Players may have a conflict of schedule or may have had a season that, when asked, they felt the event didn't deserve their presence. They may be mad at the team. There may be players that are uncomfortable with public speaking or appearances. A bigger indication of organization intent is to find out who is on the cover of the media guide, or to check out the player that is featured on any off-season promotional material. That can sometimes give away a team's trade plans. As for Drabek and Snider, they are both highly regarded former first-round picks who both maintain value with any interested teams believing in the “change of scenery” theory. But you don't just give either guy away as a throw-in.

Q-Richard,

With AA's ability to give up one of the top pitching prospects the Jays had in Nestor Molina for an uproven but very talented, controllable Santos, will there be any more moves before February rolls around that shows AA's willingness to trade those prospects and turn them into major league talent? This trade really showed that AA isn't all about acquiring prospects for the minor league systems. What do you think will be the next domino to fall? 2b and Closer are address, what other holes/additions the Jays need to make to succeed in 2012?

Scott C., Niagara on the Lake

A-The Jays cannot stop their contender-building process where they are right now without adding one or two more starting pitchers through trade or free agency and more bullpen help. They could also use a big bat in left field. As I wrote at the moment of the trade in Dallas, I like Santos as a part of the Jays moving forward, but the caveat is he only had 28 innings pitched prior to 2010 and now has had less than one full season as a closer. His numbers are good, especially all the new-wave voodoo stats, but is he the real deal for a winning team. I would have acquired him and also inked a short-term proven closer so that Santos could be an eighth inning guy for now with ninth inning ability for the time being. He's under control for six years, with increases through the final three option years, 2015-17. When Santos proves he's a closer on a true contender then hand him that role still at a good salary, but at $1 million in 2012, you could still afford another one of the proven closers on the market.    

Q-Richard,

Up to now AA's moves are moves to make the Jays competitive...not to excellent. Two old closers for one young closer...same middle of the pack 2nd baseman. I see little to persuade me that he's going to spend the money to go to the next level...even to get back with certainty to the 86-87 win level.

Peter T., Elizabeth City, NJ

A-Right now, the Jays have to rely on the natural improvement of being more experienced for Romero, Arencibia and Morrow. They have to count on a bounce back by Lind in his second season at first base and adjustments to situations of a mental challenge not of their choosing for Rasmus and Johnson. They have to count on Santos being the real deal as closer and Brett Lawrie's adrenaline continuing to fuel his excellence. They have to rely on Henderson Alvarez taking the next step and Jose Bautista staying healthy. They have to count on John Farrell handling his bullpen better and Yunel Escobar not losing interest. They were lucky to win 81 games last season given the injuries and tumult. An improvement of six win would be unlikely if the Jays entered the season with the team they have now.

Q-Richard your thoughts please.

The Blue Jays' haul at this year's winter meetings, seems to have been a disappointment to both the team's fans (not surprising) and writers (kind of surprising). When was the last time Toronto's fans and majority of the city's journalists in agreement think the Jays should make a big splash? Was this a Prince Fielder thing? Did we all think it would have been amazing to see Prince in a Jay's uniform, bringing back memories of Cecil and the awesome 80's when we were building towards conquering the American League? Was it a Rogers thing? I think as Torontonians we uniquely understand Rogers dominance over our city (I used to live in CityPlace, I understand). We know they have the money. There's also a decent business case to be made:

A) Again, they have a ton of money (congrats on MLSE by the way)

B) You can trade any contract in two to three years to the Yankees no matter how bad or uneconomical it seems (we have Anthopolous, he can pretty much do anything.

C) By signing Prince, the city's largest digital conglomerate will be a hero to all of Toronto for at least 60 days. Could you imagine the Rogers' CEO press conference that would follow the Prince signing? I would sign up for the extra HD channels that day.

D) We have Anthopolous, he can do pretty much anything. Let him build a champion around Bautista/Fielder/Lawrie. Rogers needs to remember that we used to run this league. 50,000 fans a game, 82 games a year, 4,000,000 fans yearly, four pennants, two league titles, two World Series.At $20 million a year for 7 years, how do you not make that move if you're Rogers?

Ashton L., Toronto

A-There are several problems surrounding the Jays and Prince Fielder. One is agent Scott Boras who tries never to lose or compromise in any negotiation. He does not have the greatest relationship with the Jays, having used their name with little truth or substance to their interest in the past to boost some of his clients' values. Number two is the required years 7-10 of any contract at $20-million-plus that Fielder is demanding. Think about the fact that once you lock up Fielder through 2021, he now becomes the payroll focus for the foreseeable future. Fielder has been surprisingly durable, but what about injuries. As he gets older, that body is not going to get smaller. The Jays made the mistake with Vernon Wells and ended up being eternally grateful to the Angels for taking the remaining years of the contract. Three is that CEO Paul Beeston believes that mega free-agents given the choice want to go to a proven winner, which the Jays are not. Personally, I believe the first three or four years of Fielder would be a honeymoon that would work but still not necessarily result in a World Series. After that it could be hell. Artificial turf would eat him up defensively.   

Q-Having just read your story on the purchase of MLSE and the effect it may have on how Rogers treats the Jay, I can only hope you are wrong. It is no secret that any organizations goal is to maximize revenues in its various streams. Knowing what the 1990 Jays' were capable of in terms of attendance, mass audiences and marketing, I can not help but feel that that this was part of the reasoning in Rogers purchase of the Jays. To this end, Rogers have remained dedicated to rebuilding the brand and are on the verge of realizing potential while many investors point out that MLSE has for a large part utilized theirs. I am more inclined to hope that it is year round quality of television product that Rogers is hoping to guarantee. With luck, the Jays will improve again this year and seriously compete in 2013. Then Rogers will invest heavily.

Stephen S., London, ON

A-There were two things that bothered me about the Jays performance at the winter meetings in Dallas. Both of them surfaced when they acquired Sergio Santos on the Tuesday. First was when AA said that “payroll will go up when revenues go up, when fans start coming back to the games.” That's it. That's the best you can do. Blame the fans. He retracted the next day, in terms of fatigue and frustration.

But on Thursday the Angels signed Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson, with not one extra fan setting foot through the doors of the stadium and by the weekend had sold an extra 1,000 season tickets. The Angels did not wait around patiently for revenues to increase before increasing payroll. Cart-horse? Chicken-egg? Payroll-attendance? Which comes first?

The second issue was when AA started talking about “parameters” and how he could make it work for the Jays whatever parameters he was given. In the past, even as late as the Thursday before the meetings at a luncheon with Toronto's baseball writers, he and Beeston were still happily talking about no actual payroll budget but that if they felt strongly enough about adding payroll they merely had to head up to the Rogers building and convince the powers that be that the payroll increase was necessary and that they had never been turned down. Something had changed in those six days. Could it have been the impending purchase of MLSE and the focus shifting to the big prize before some time in the future turning back to the Jays. It was the first time that Anthopoulos had ever shrugged when speaking about payroll. It was jarring. 

Q-Hi Richard,

I'm looking forward to your next mailbag following your trip to the meetings. It seems what the Angels have done puts the Jays further down (wild card). The Angels now have three 1B. I`d like to see a three-team trade involving Lind and Kendrys Morales (to Jays). I'd mentioned this before but never got a response. Playoff teams have 2-3 .300 hitters plus 2-3 switch hitters. Jays have neither. It'd be easier to manage against the Jays with the static L and R bats and no S. Do you think AA would pull a rabbit out of his hat for SP/LF (non worthy on the FA list)?

Kam H., Richmond Hill

A-I would say that the most legitimate contenders for the 2012 post-season at this point of the off-season are: AL West...Angels and Rangers; AL East...Yankees, Rays and Red Sox; AL Central...Tigers. The Jays, if there are two wild-cards as expected, may have felt they only had to beat out one of their three AL East opponents, but now you throw two AL West teams that should both have victory totals in the 90s, given that dynamic duo's 36 games vs. the A's and M's. It gets tougher for the Jays.

As for the suggested trade, I actually prefer Lind over Morales and as mentioned before, because of circumstances surrounding Lind, marriage, child, new position, conditioning, I am willing to give him a second season of being the first baseman before passing judgment. I see Lind having a bounce back. The other thing about .300 hitters and switch-hitters seems a personal observation. The switch hitter thing is just not a priority. What they do need is a stronger bench than they've had the past few years. 

Q-Hi Richard,

With the Blue Jays on the rise with an exciting young team, what are the chances that any of their games would be broadcasted to a national U.S. audience on, say, Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN or on FOX?

Thanks,

Vince T., Toronto

A-I would say that ESPN Sunday Night with a nice Toronto boy, Dan Schulman doing the play-by-play has a better chance of carrying the Jays than does FOX, which cares more about having an affiliate station in the markets of both competing teams.

Q-Richard,

With the new CBA seemingly hindering the Jays chances through drafting and international signings having a "cap" amount a predetermined amount being able to spend on such players given their draft position and with international signings everyone having the same amount of "cap" room available to each team. It would seem that AA's building model going forward will have to be adjusted due to the fact of penalties that could lead to at worst a per cent charge and lost 1st and 2nd round picks. My question is are the Jays able to increase their available funds in the draft and international signings by say "trading" with another team to increase their "cap'? Will AA be able to say make a trade for a player and give back a little better prospect if the trade partner say trades $2 million of either their draft or international available funds? Thx. This CBA seems to hinder the small to medium market clubs that build around drafting and international signings.

Scott C., Niagara on the Lake

A-The new CBA in my opinion was designed to favour the teams that were lazy in terms of creativity and international scouting. But just like AA and some other imaginative GMs were always one step ahead in gathering Type A or B players and flipping them for draft picks, I am confident that upon further review, AA will figure out new ways to take advantage of the new CBA. And in answer to your question, yes, teams are allowed to trade parts of their international signing cap in exchange for players or prospects. That fact will become another chip for GMs in making the adjustment. Also, there are tradable draft picks in that phony baloney competitive-balance draft — Nos. 31-36 and after the second round — that was designed as a bone to be thrown to small-market teams. There will be an adjustment period for teams, agents and players, but a guy like Jays' first-round pick Tyler Beede may have made a good educational decision going to Vanderbilt, but a bad business decision.   

Q-Hi Richard,

Read your article on Dave van Horne which you published earlier this year. I'm a former Montrealer who also went to Concordia, and now living in Glasgow, Scotland. Hence the reason for not seeing the article earlier. I remember Dave and the  Duke ' so well as I was only a young lad when my dad took me to the Expos first home opener way back and gave me a cap to boot! I like to think that if not for the strike shortened season 'nos amours ' would have won the World Series and perhaps the franchise would have survived, albeit there was no chance of competing with Les Canadiens . Have always enjoyed reading your articles. All the best.

Charles C., Glasgow, Scotland

A-Thanks. And as far as I am concerned, Dave Van Horne and the late Tom Cheek are two of the best broadcasters on radio I've heard in my 39 years of working or covering Major League Baseball. Both men are in the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame at St. Marys. Only one is enshrined at Cooperstown. It's a frustrating process, but fans should stay the course and keep up the campaign to get Tom in.  

Q-Hi Richard,

Great work with the Jays. I'm an ex-pat Torontonian living in Montreal and I grew up with the Jays. Now that the Jays have gotten back to a respectable look on the field, what about the field itself? What are the chances the Jays can “retro fit” the dome and keep the same location? Thanks for your time.

Patrick G., Montreal

A-They really do need to retrofit the dome. Some of the best free agents or players with veto rights won't come because of the artificial turf. That hurts the product. The Jays management has done a good job of player comfort underneath, but a grass surface with an all-dirt infield and more open-roof dates and more scoreboard replays would be a great start for fan comfort and concern. Why should fans at home know more about what's happening than fans at the game. They are encouraging fans to stay home. That's not right and if the no replay policy is to protect the umpires, forget the umpires. If the Argos are the issue or concerts, there are ways around it. Baseball fans should come first.

Griffin: Braun PED positive generates wide range of emotions

And the truth shall set you free, Ryan Braun.

On Saturday, the shocking news was revealed that the Brewers' reigning NL MVP had failed a Performance Enhancing Drug test and was in a position to be suspended for the first 50 games of the 2012 season as a first-time offender. Braun is disputing the test results with MLB in an appeal that is ongoing and should be resolved in January.

Until the moment in time when Braun can step up to the microphone and truthfully explain the events leading to his positive PED test -- the one thing that can save his heretofore squeaky-clean public image -- we're all just guessing and pontificating with a tut-tut-tut self righteousness that forever seems insincere and self-serving.

There is no right or wrong opinion in yet-to-be-resolved cases like this, just uninformed ones. We all have our own agenda and life experience that shapes our level of disappointment or anger towards Braun. The fact is we do not know enough of the details of his failed test at this time to pass accurate judgment. The one thing fans should not do is condemn baseball and abandon the game. It has survived worse.

The biggest positive for the integrity of the game, other than Braun's urine sample, is that this moment of painful truth for the Brewers' star outfielder reached this stage of his paying the price only because of baseball's self-regulation, a mutually agreed-upon testing for cheaters that was instituted after pressure from the U.S. Congress, but through collective bargaining and was not something thrust upon the industry as part of the laws of the land. There were no arrests.  

What we do seem to know from sources close to the case is that Braun tested positive for excessive levels of testosterone and that they are considered unusual levels of artificial or "synthetic" testosterone not produced by the body. The original tests in early October showed a stunningly high imbalance of testosterone to epitestosterone of three times over the accepted ratio and twice as high as anyone had previously tested.

Braun's reaction was to volunteer for a second test, paid for by his representatives. The follow-up test just three weeks later showed no indication of the previous imbalance. It's like the alcohol defence of "nobody could be that drunk so there must have been something wrong with the original test." But the change from all to nothing does lend some doubt.

The original sample was sent to the World Anti-Doping Agency in Montreal where the original readings were confirmed. The follow-up test was not mandated by the CBA and will likely only help Braun in the aftermath when he attempts to clear his name with fans.     

One thing is certain in a process that should be allowed to play itself out. Personal endorsements of character aren't worth a thing. In any area of crisis, friends tend to wear blinders and in a case where a player like Braun has spent his career being a good guy, unlike Barry Bonds, Rafael Palmeiro, Roger Clemens, Jose Canseco, A-Rod and others, Braun has a lot of friends. For every nut that climbs a bell-tower with an assault rifle, there are neighbours that will tell you what a wonderful kid he was growing up. 

The safest bet for Braun, though, is that the reigning MVP will end up serving his mandated 50-game suspension, because there is no gray in the CBA with regard to drug testing. It's all black and white, whether the failed test was intentional or not. Appealing a failed PED test has historically resulted in a shutout in favour of the process according to MLB executive Rob Manfred. The one thing that degrees of guilt can do is save image, because right now the Braun brand is taking a pounding. What is being debated now was meant to be going on behind closed doors, with the results announced when final. Best advice for Braun, with penalties in place that he has little chance of avoiding, he should come clean.  

Braun is compelled. Several years ago, when Braun was asked his level of surprise that Alex Rodriguez was implicated with performance-enhancing-drugs, pre mandatory testing in 2004, he suggested that A-Rod might have been treated with more compassion and understanding by fans if he had come clean right away, if he had explained the extent of his indiscretions and apologized to the game and its fans. We'll see if the Brewers' star follows his own advice, as he teeters on the brink of career disgrace.

However that future moment of Braun throwing himself upon the mercy of the court of public opinion has not yet been possible. Braun's current appeal is being coordinated by lawyer David Cornwell, famous for his defence of troubled athletes Terrelle Pryor of Ohio State and Ben Roethlisberger and Donte Stallworth of the Steelers. Cornwell is also a former candidate for head of the NFL players' union.

The startling news of Braun's ongoing case was revealed on ESPN's Outside the Lines on the weekend. Braun has been one of the most revered and trusted stars in baseball, one of the young stars that commissioner Bud Selig has proudly pointed to along with Ryan Howard and others in touting baseball's negotiated drug-testing program as working tremendously in cleaning up the game. Baseball has now just announced blood-testing for Human Growth Hormone as another step forward.

Braun, one of Selig's poster boys for baseball's improved image, represents a step backwards. Whether his case turns into a misstep rather than a damaging tumble is largely on Braun and his mea culpa. The long-term effect remains to be seen.  

 

Griffin: Pujols signs with Angels, joined by C.J. Wilson

Overnight on Wednesday, the baseball landscape changed dramatically.

First it was the mystery team, the Angels drafting behind the spirited negotiations between Albert Pujols with the Marlins and Cardinals, then sliding through late and scooping up the future Hall-of-Fame first baseman for a 10-year deal rumoured to be in the $250 million range.

Then the news came out that lefthander C.J. Wilson had also joined Arte Moreno's Halos, for five years and $77 million. Wow.

I haven't checked with Vegas yet, but the betting favourites for the World Series have to be the Angels in the AL and the Marlins in the NL. Recall the Marlins have added closer Heath Bell, shortstop Jose Reyes and starter Mark Buehrle.

How about the Angels rotation of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Wilson and Ervin Santana. The Fab Four will combine to earn $53 million. The team payroll, which was $141.8 million a year ago has just taken a quantum leap forward.

The 31-year-old Wilson was 16-7 with a 2.94 ERA with division-rival Texas last season, leading the Rangers to their second straight World Series.

The average annual salary for Pujols of $25 million ties Ryan Howard for the fourth highest in baseball history behind Roger Clemens in '07, Alex Rodriguez for '08-'11 and A-Rod from '01 to '07. Other first baseman that have averaged above $20 million per year are Howard, Mark Teixeira of the Yankees and Adrian Gonzalez of the Red Sox.

Pujols had played his entire 11-year career with the Cardinals, batting .328 with a .420 on-base percentage, 445 home runs and 1,329 RBIs.

The odds posted by Bodog.ca on the Angels to win the World Series have gone from 22 to 1 down to 12 to 1 while the Cardinals odds have risen from 14 to 18 to 1.

Now it's up to the Angels and Marlins to do it on the field and as the Fish proved not once but twice, the most expensive teams aren't always the ones hoisting the World Series championship trophy at the end of the year.