Jays mailbag: A championship team needs ...

The Jays announced this week that they have sold out the home opener at the Rogers Centre on Friday, April 1 against the Twins which is proof positive that fans are buying into the two-year-old program of GM Alex Anthopoulos and President Paul Beeston.

There have been no unrealistic promises of contending this year but yet fans have responded to sell out – at least for the opener. For the first time in a long time, major-league baseball is opening the season on a weekend, something they should have done long ago.

How long the fans stay faithful and believe in their Jays is another story. Hey, the Leafs have surged into 10th place in the conference. Gotta plan the parade route.

The Jays have a rugged early-season schedule in April/May that includes 20 road games among the first 31 contests, with a west-coast swing and stops in New York, Texas, Boston and Tampa. It will be an interesting baseball season with a wide range of victory totals possible for a still-building home team.

For all you fantasy baseball experts the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame has an interesting fundraising idea. The Hall and its president, Tom Valcke, have organized a pool in which fans can choose their own team of major-leaguers for the regular season and contribute $10 to the excellent, non-profit organization located in St. Marys, ON.

The 2011 pool is offering more than $1,200 worth of prizes, including a very unique prize to the champion - a limited edition special bat created by the Hall of Fame bearing the signatures of Canada's three MVPs, Larry Walker, Justin Morneau, and Joey Votto. Check it out online at http://baseballhalloffame.ca/ if you gert a chance.

On to the mailbag.  

Q. Hey Richard. Very much enjoy your insights into all things Blue Jays and MLB. Over here in the Middle East it's nothing but football (soccer) and cricket, sigh.

My question relates to the Jays' coaching staff. Given the changes and how instrumental they will be to a relatively young team, what are your thoughts thus far in spring taining and how do you think this coaching staff (manager included) matches up against other teams' coaching staffs? And finally, is there a coaching staff over the years in all of MLB that you would pay special tribute to? Thanks.

Paul M, Manama, Bahrain

A. This Jays' coaching staff is a teaching staff and that's what the Jays needed at this time. The manager John Farrell is a former pitching coach who knows that side of the game but also knows what kind of offensive teams gave his Red Sox pitching staffs trouble in preparing for them. That is why he wants to integrate an aggressive running gameplan into the Jays' offensive mix.

The pitching coach Bruce Walton is entering his second year as the main pitching guy after years as the bullpen coach. He knows his pitchers' individual personalities and cares about their health above all. The staff, especially the starters, are very close to each other and to their coach.

Hitting coach Dwayne Murphy gets much credit for Jose Bautista's dramatic power surge, but his philosophy of hitting the pitch you are looking for no matter when it comes in the pitch sequence has helped guys like John McDonald as well as the power guys. If it's not a pitch that you were expecting, just take it until you have two strikes. Murphy also has helped guys get ready on time and be in hitting position earlier to get the bat head out front for maximum power.

It's been a long time since the Jays have had a catching guy per se, but Don Wakamatsu has spent countless hours in discussion with rookie J.P. Arencibia, helping him with the finer points of the game. He is a former major-league manager with the M's.

Luis Rivera is in his first year with the Jays, but has been on a coaching staff at the major-league level with the Indians and has managed himself at AA-New Hampshire where he forged a strong relationship with guys like Kyle Drabek, Eric Thames, Adeiny Hechavarria and others. He is a former major-league shortstop and pays close attention especially to the middle of the infield.

Brian Butterfield's ongoing resume includes work with a young Derek Jeter in the Yankee system in the early '90s and continues today for his fourth Jays manager as a valuable instructor on the mental side and the mechanics of playing the infield. As a third-base coach, he's not afraid of challenging the defence by going first to third, second to home, but if his runner is thrown out, there's usually a calculated-risk explanation, depending on game situation, score, runner and defender.

The Jays have never really had a hands-on outfield instructor, but this spring Torey Lovullo has been tenacious with the outfielders, constantly hitting them groundballs in the outfield from behind a screen during batting practice, taking Travis Snider through exhausting throwing repetitions as other players shag during b.p. and preaching hitting the cutoff man, throwing to the right base and proper jumps and routes to flyballs. Lovullo has nine years as a minor-league manager, the last five at Triple-A.

Pat Hentgen is a rookie bullpen coach working with a veteran bullpen. He will learn from Farrell and Walton and can contribute from his experiences as a Jays star and Cy Young winner. He knows he's learning but brings a mental preparation expertise to the task. At least four of these coaches could go on to become major-league managers. Not sure about the manager yet, but this is one of the best coaching staffs in baseball right now. It's hard to compare going back in time, but in this day and age, with players rushed through the minors, the need for a teaching staff is as great as it has ever been. That's what the Jays have.   

Q. Hi Rich. Adam Lind's conversion over to 1B seemed to be a big topic of discussion as spring training rolled around, yet I haven't read or heard much in terms of his development so far there. How has he progressed at that position, seeing as how opening day is less than two weeks away? Thanks.

Thomas Turniawan, Antigonish, NS

A. Lind's conversion has gone just about as expected for a man that has played the position before in college, but obviously not at this level. His best asset is handling throws in the dirt, although he fanned on a sinker from Yunel Escobar at shortstop on Wednesday night. His feeds to pitchers covering the bag have been good, far better than last year when he forced David Purcey into the air and he came down on the corner of the bag and sprained his ankle. He is better going towards the line to field groundballs, rather than going to his right. He is not graceful looking, but there are no style points. His throws to second base are not always precise, but he is not afraid of the throw.

Coach Brian Butterfield works with him constantly before practice and during batting practice hitting him countless groundballs and preaching footwork. The only criticism is that Lind did not take the knowledge of his impending position change to get a head start with the glove either at Instructional League or in any winter league.

Q. It seems like the prevailing rationale for keeping Jo-Jo Reyes in the running for the No. 5 spot in the rotation is his lack of options. Why should that drive the Blue Jays decision making? Why not base it solely on performance? It almost seems a bit unfair to Jesse Litsch -- a guy who seems recovered from injury and has more of an established track record.

Jay V, Petrolia

A. Manager John Farrell has called the lack of any remaining minor-league options when there's a decision to be made a “tiebreaker” that it only comes into play if there are two players of similar talent and one of them has options. Then he would go to the minors.

Farrell swears it will be the best 12 pitchers that break with the team and nothing else. That's a noble, very difficult goal, but it's what the Jays are saying. Guys with no options like Reyes and David Purcey are inventory and why would the organization want to give up useful inventory for nothing.

The more good players you control the better. There was an Expos player in the '80s who upon signing his first big contract decided his wife after wearing an outfit once should throw it out instead of having it dry cleaned. Sure she always looked good in new clothes, but was it the most efficient plan for her closet inventory over time? She  waived her wardrobe once a week without thinking about or worrying about the future. If you let a major-league player go right now because you have something similar on hand, that's short-sighted.

In any event, he 26-year-old Reyes has been a revelation at camp including his six strong innings vs. the Yankees on Wednesday. He has overcome knee injuries from the past to earn a spot on the roster. The Jays' lack of options, the lack of ability to send him out to the minors without passing him through waivers (where he would surely be claimed) was a factor, but his performance on the mound this spring meant that even without the injury to Brandon Morrow, Reyes was going to be on the team. It will be an interesting decision when Morrow returns to the rotation, but it's likely Reyes will stay.

Q. Richard. With David Cooper having such a strong spring, do you think that if the Adam Lind test at first base fails, could you see a Cooper promotion in May/June, and move Lind back to DH? With Cooper in the lineup it would add another left-handed bat to a right-handed heavy lineup. Do you think this would happen about the same time as a Lawrie callup?

Scott Cochrane, Niagara on the Lake

A. Edwin Encarnacion has been promised regular at-bats to re-sign with the Jays. If the Lind first-base conversion failed, Edwin would get the first shot.

David Cooper has certainly opened eyes this spring with John Farrell wondering out loud how a guy with his sweet swing was ever a .250 hitter in the minors. Cooper is just 24-years-old and just completed a second stalled season at AA-New Hampshire. However while hitting .257, he doubled his home run total of the year before to 20. At Tampa this spring he hit a bomb over the right field bleachers that landed on the concourse and bounced out into the street. He was selected 17th overall in the 2008 draft and that's a lot of pressure for a young player that starts out slowly in his career. In that draft, Brett Lawrie was chosen by Milwaukee 16th overall and Brett Wallace No. 13 by the Cards. The Jays had liked both those guys as their own first pick.

Q. Hi Richard. Love and look forward to this column every week! My question pertains to having multiple coaches. There is a lot of discussion on the effect Dwayne Murphy had on the majority of Blue Jays hitters last season. His philosophy has clearly helped the majority of our hitters, at least in terms of power production.

However, given that Adam Lind and Aaron Hill had a much worse showing last year, is it possible that Murphy's approach just doesn't work for everyone? I know there are a number of factors involved in a player's performance, but it seems unusual that there is a clear division between the players that performed best last season from those that excelled in 09. Perhaps this is just coincidence but I'm curious: has any organization toyed with the idea of having two hitting coaches? This would allow players to choose who they feel most comfortable receiving instruction from or to get a fresh perspective when they are slumping.

Ryan Brooks, Toronto

A. That's an idea whose time will never come. In 2009, Cito Gaston talked about having three hitting coaches on the team, Gene Tenace, Murphy and Cito himself. That only worked for the Jays because all three men were preaching the same message of going to the plate with a gameplan, looking for your pitch and hitting it as hard as you can no matter what the count. In 2010 Tenace left the staff and the basic message remained the same. In '09, both Lind and Hill had solid years. In 2010 they tailed off although each hit 20-plus homers. Good hitting is so much about the mental approach and going to the plate with confidence. Having two different hitting coaches borders on panic and lack of confidence.

Q. What part of the Blue Jays team do you think they need to improve in order to compete for a championship. I think the team looks really good but just needs sometime to mature.

Craig Robinson, Swift Current

A. The Jays need a stud No. 1 starter that has done it before, with 230-plus innings and regularly working seven innings per start. They had that man in Roy Halladay but that wasn't going to work anymore. When they traded him to the Phillies it meant taking a two-year step backwards. This is year two. That stud pitcher may be on hand but the Jays won't win anything until he steps up.

The Jays also need a reliable top of the order, first and second place hitters that set the table regularly for the 3-4-5 guys putting pressure on the pitcher and defence with the threat of speed, ensuring that an opponent can't pitch around the middle of the order because there are runners on base. The protection for Jose Bautista will come as much from those batting in front of him as from those batting behind. The Jays to win need a catcher that can lead a pitching staff with confidence but can also deliver some offence. J.P. Arencibia is supposed to be that guy, but is still working on all aspects of that description. 

Q. Recently it has been suggested that both Kyle Drabek and Brandon Morrow would benefit from throwing to veteran catcher Molina rather than rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia. Arencibia's struggling this spring, not only with handling breaking pitches and opposing baserunners, but also with his batting average that hovers around .100. Will Molina be sharing starting catcher duties with Arencibia as the 2011 season begins? What's the prognosis for Arencibia?

Andrew W.,Tampa Bay

A. It looks like Arencibia will begin the season catching games for Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil and Jesse Litsch, while Jose Molina will handle Kyle Drabek and the Morrow/Reyes combo. When Morrow returns and if Reyes is still in the rotation, Jo-Jo would likely go over to Arencibia. If that 3-of-5 thing continued all year it would give Arencibia about 97 starts behind the plate. That could change as the season goes along and he picks up the nuances that he lacks right now.

Defensively, Arencibia has been throwing well. He has boxed some balls around as a receiver, not because of an inability to handle breaking pitches but because he needed to soften his hands and relax. He is doing a better job at that as the spring goes along as well as improving his glove action at the bottom of the strike zone and getting away from stabbing at the ball giving umpires a bad impression of certain pitches, losing strikes for his staff. Defensively he is getting the hands-on treatment from coach Don Wakamatsu and can often be seen sitting at Molina's locker discussing catching. His hitting is the major issue right now, but the Jays are committed to him with no time frame. They point out how John Buck had a slow start for two months in 2010 and they stayed with him and he became an all-star.

Jays mailbag: St. Patrick's Day and the 12th anniversary of Johnson's exit

Happy St. Patrick's Day which, by the way, marks the 12th anniversary of Jays' manager Tim Johnson's spring training firing following his 88 win debut season with the Jays and the anniversary of Jim Fregosi being hired in 1999.

GM Gord Ash had continued to back his beleaguered manager all winter, including an uncomfortable week at the winter meetings in Nashville where Johnson's one-hour manager's interview session devolved into an embarrassing mea culpa.

Johnson had admitted to exaggerating his degree of service in the Vietnam era claiming in some clubhouse bull sessions with players that he had gone overseas.

His role, in fact, had been at Camp Pendleton training mortar artillerymen. But the whole thing wasn't going to work.

It got so bad at spring training in Dunedin with snide comments behind Johnson's back both in the clubhouse and on the road, including Jays' newly acquired lefthander David Wells going on the Bubba the Love Sponge Morning Show and regularly ridiculing his skipper that Ash decided that the change had to be made in a St. Patty's Day Massacre.

Major League Baseball umpires like officials in all pro sports are looked upon as a necessary evil.

However, I have known a lot of umpires personally through the years and away from the field in relaxed social settings, most of them are funny, charming, smart and family oriented. Of course we don't want to generalize because there are others that are total pinheads — probably in the same ratio as in any other segment of life.

MLB umpires are currently trying to get the word out about their online auction that they are conducting on behalf of their charity, UMPS CARE.

The online auction began on March 9 and goes until this Sunday, March 20.

There are some great items, more than 200 up for bid that include a ton of signed memorabilia, VIP experiences, golf, hotel stays and more.

All of the money goes to fund the UMPS CARE initiatives, which benefit children (hospital visits/Build-a-Bear workshops for children with serious illnesses and VIP game experiences for children awaiting adoption are two). Visit: http://www.umpscare.com/index.php for more information.

Now, to the questions:

Q-Richard,

With Brett Lawrie showing his natural ability on the ball diamond what are the chances he leaves spring training as the starting 3B and move Bautista back to RF? If Lawrie is as talented as we think, doesn't he seem to be of the same breed as A-Rod, Pujols, Heyward, with that being said, age shouldn't come into play as those 3 examples all started the careers at a young age like Lawrie. I know he will probably start in AAA but wouldn't our lineup be stronger with him at 3B and Bautista in RF?

Scott C.,Niagara-on-the-Lake

 

A-Sure, the Jays could easily make the decision to begin the season with Brett Lawrie at third base and live with the learning curve that he requires at third base from a positioning, react-to-the-ball-off-the-bat, still-needs-his-reps type thing. But they likely won't. Manager John Farrell is a huge and important supporter of Lawrie in the majors. The rest of the non-uniformed organization is more cautious. He has made some nice plays at third base, including flawless feeds right on the money to start double plays and many going to his left. Part of the reason for sending him to Vegas, of course, is that three weeks in the minors would ensure that Lawrie remains under Jays' control through 2017 instead of 2016. A player needs six full years to earn free agent status. A full season is 172 days of accumulated time. The 2011 season is 181 days long. Another part of the reason for farming him out is that they need to find a landing spot for current right fielder Juan Rivera, the Jays' version of brown shoes with their opening day tuxedo.

Rivera does not fit the Alex Anthopoulos criteria. He is not young, he's not controllable and the reason they even have him is that the Vernon Wells transaction needed to be made in order for the Jays' financial flexibility moving forward and Rivera's $5.2 million 2011 salary was part of what the Angels insisted the Jays take on. Currently the Jays starting outfield of LF Travis Snider, CF Rajai Davis and RF Rivera may rank 14th among 14 AL outfields. Check out any Fantasy Baseball preview magazine and look for Jays' outfielders in their 2011 rankings. As soon as you moved Bautista back to right field, with the Lawrie move to start at third base, the outfield rank would rise considerably.

It's probably unfair at this stage to Lawrie to compare him to A-Rod, Albert Pujols and Heyward at the same age. None of those three players was changing positions in the year they reached the majors and by the time they were 20 or 21, due to where they grew up, I would safely estimate they had far more repetitions on both sides of the ball than has Lawrie has, even growing up in the baseball hotbed of British Columbia and participating in the various Baseball Canada programs. If you're asking what I would do, I would send Rivera to another team and pay a large portion of his salary and I would install Lawrie at third base and bat him ninth. We've all at one time or another had to learn on the job.  

Q-Hello Richard,

Much has been made of the Jays selection of Romero over Tulowitzki- including DiManno's recent article. How would the first 7 or 10 picks in that draft look today based solely on the player and not the selecting team's needs?

Thanks,

Martin, Edmonton

A-Here's one man's rankings, using the advantage of 20-20 hindsight, of the Top 12 first round picks from the 2005 draft. I'll put an asterisk next to the guys that were selected after Ricky Romero: 1-*Troy Tulowitzki (Rox); 2-Ryan Braun (Brewers); 3-Justin Upton (D'backs); 4-Ryan Zimmerman (Nats); 5-*Clay Buchholz (Bosox); 6-*Matt Garza (Twins); 7-*Jacoby Ellsbury (Bosox); 8-Romero; 9-*Colby Rasmus (Cards); 10-Jay Bruce (Reds); 11-Andrew McCutcheon (Bucs); 12-Alex Gordon (Royals).  

Q-Hi Richard,

Always look forward to your insights, especially off-field things we'd have no other way of knowing. Two questions: First, have the Jays considered inviting Jimmy Key as a guest instructor? He'd be great with some of the left-handed starters, especially if he could teach them his borderline-legal pick-off move! Second, everyone always says Johnny Mac is a lousy hitter, but in about 150 at-bats last year he had 23 RBI. In 600 ABs, my simple math projects this to 92 RBI. Or, combining the last three years and extrapolating those 489 ABs up to 600 would give about 66 RBI. It's not great, but it's not terrible. Is he really that bad a hitter? He's certainly a great human being and a wizard fielder. Thanks!

Richard W., Toronto

A-As for former Jays' lefthander Jimmy Key, I have never heard his name mentioned around the Jays as even being interested in the prospect of teaching the organization's young pitchers. He had a great pickoff move which helped him control the opponent's running game, but whenever John Farrell looks for an example to teach his young lefthanders, especially Brett Cecil, in terms of a lefthander being in total control of the game, he points to Andy Pettitte. It's probably a better idea that a young pitcher has seen the guy pitch and Jimmy retired in '98. Some guys just have no interest in coaching.

John McDonald is a much better hitter now than when he first joined the Jays from the Indians. A lot of credit for his early improvement should go to former Jays' hitting coach Mike Barnett. McDonald is what he is. That is a guy that can fill in nicely off the bench for a game or two, but that you don't want starting for a prolonged period. He reaches 10 years in the majors sometime in May. That's a pretty good career for a guy with his limited hitting ability. That's really good for him and his family and he's a great human being, one of the best...but, he's not a good hitter.

Q-I know it's just Spring Training but Brett Lawrie has looked really good so far, what is the chance of him making the team in April or is he looking like a September call-up? I have a friendly wager with a buddy that he will be called up after July 1st, am I going to lose $100?

Matt S., Toronto

A-For his chances of making the team out of the spring see the first question today. As for your bet on being called up after July 1, you might have a better chance of winning if you specified “before July 1.”

Q-Hi Richard:

Why would the Twins give up a good young starter such as Kevin Slowey?

Stu, Erin, Ont.

A-They haven't. The problem in a lot of major-league camps is that outside observers look at a club's areas of depth and ask themselves how their club could possibly use that perceived depth to shore up another perceived weakness on the roster. So when the Twins had what seemed like six major-league-ready starters in the rotation and a lack of experienced relievers in the bullpen and when two Jays' pro scouts showed up at a B Game in which Slowey was getting his work in, 2+2 became 5. Six starters is not depth. Ten starters is depth. There are injuries and failures to launch that occur every year in the majors and if you don't have guys in the minors ready to step in, then you aren't going to compete. The Jays currently have three top starters, plus four guys competing for the final two spots. That's seven starters, plus in the minors they will have pitchers on the rise like Zach Stewart, Henderson Alvarez, Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire, plus holding-tank guys like Brad Mills and Robert Ray. That's more like the depth required to trade a starter for bullpen help.  If a Slowey deal ever happened, good for the Jays, but unnecessary.

Q-Hey, Richard:

Love to pick your brain on M.L.B. rules involving player movement, so here we go again. This young Dominican pitcher that A.A. is trying to find a way to hang onto has 'run out of options' at the ripe old age of 22. I presume that's because Boston signed him at 17? Are these kids that teams sign from countries not subject to the draft subject to the same rules as U.S./Canadian kids (i.e. after 5 years go on the 40-man roster or be exposed to waivers? Will the same thing apply to the two Venezuelan kids the Jays signed last year. Why didn't the Jays go that route with Hechevarria?

I was in Dunedin last spring, partly because you made it sound so good (and it was!), & this year I'm in Phoenix. With the exception of not getting to see my beloved Jays, this is even better!

Bruce S., Courtenay, B.C.

A-Young lefty Cesar Cabral did not run out of options with Boston, but as you point out, since he had not been added to the Sox' 40-man roster after he had been a professional for five years he was eligible for the Rule 5 in December. The three options are just for roster players. If Cabral had been on the Red Sox roster, he would not have been eligible for the Rule 5 from which he was plucked by the Rays. But if he had been on the Sox' 40-man, as soon as they sent him to the minors this spring that would have become his first option. He could move up and down all year and it would still only be one option.

As far as the Jays' Venezuelans are concerned, it depends upon the signing dates when the clock starts. My understanding is that they have until the end of the 2015 season and then they must be protected on the 40-man or exposed to the Rule 5. Hechavarria is a different story. He was signed to as major-league contract due to the fierce competition for his services. He is signed for four years, through 2013. The club has already used one option and now having optioned him to AA-New Hampshire have exercised a second. If they send him to the minors again in 2012, then he's out of options for 2013 and must make the major-league team or be exposed on waivers. Once he starts playing for the Jays, then his service time accumulates just like any other player in terms of arbitration and free agency, but because of his original major-league contract, he's had a head start in terms of being held down in the minors.   

Q-Richard:

Do you see 1B/OF as a possible future destination for J.P. Arencibia?

Good hitting catchers have been moved in the past to save their knees (Biggio, Delgado)

Jamie N., Brooklin, Ont.

A-The Arencibia question is a good one. The Jays have some good catching prospects coming up through the farm system led by Travis D'Arnaud who is slated to start the year at Double-A New Hampshire. If Arencibia's bat is for real as demonstrated by his PCL numbers at Vegas in 2010, then they will have to find a place for him to play. It's not a bad thing having a catcher with that offensive capability – see Mike Piazza. It's not bad having two catchers with major-league ability on your team – see Anaheim Angels. But at some point you have to make a decision. Trading one guy is possible. It's too early to predict for Arencibia and the Jays, but first base would be more likely than outfield if they decided to keep both he and D'Arnaud with a third catcher brought in to back up.

Q-Richard,

What is the latest update from Dustin McGowan?

Tom Z., Richmond Hill, Ont.

A-I wrote about McGowan's latest mound session at minor league camp on Monday. He is on the 60-day DL but that makes no difference to his status. He can still stay at extended camp in April and continue to work at coming back. He can pitch in all the minor league games he needs but if he pitches for one of the affiliates his rehab-option time starts to add up. McGowan if he ever returns will come back as a reliever and has accepted the organization's decision. The thought being that the pitches from 80-110 as a starter are more fatigue-inducing, maybe damaging than 10-20 pitches in one inning, even doing that every two days. McGowan is a gamer who won't give up the dream and to the Jays' credit they have not given up on him as they did Chris Carpenter, which came back to haunt them as he won Cy with the Cards. McGowan had elite stuff before the injuries, but the results were not that elite even when healthy so expectations if he is able to complete his unlikely comeback should be tempered. Just seeing him on the mound in a major-league game again would be emotional, because July 8 will mark the third year of not pitching in a regular-season pro game at any level. That's tough.

Q-Hi Richard,

Expanding on a question from last week, is there any minor leagues that play without a DH as does the National League? Or is the NL the only professional league that doesn’t use the DH?

Cheers,

Jeff Jay, Haliburton, Ont.

A-The Japanese Central League and the National League are the only pro leagues that have pitchers in the batting order. The Golden Baseball League (Independent) based in California did, but they have merged with other independent leagues and have been swallowed up by the DH rule. I used to be a big NL supporter with no DH, but it's becoming ridiculous to have kids come to the majors because of their arms and then be handed a bat. It's sad to lose the purity of the game, but it's time.

Q-Hi Richard,

I'm discussing the Kevin Slowey from the Twins possibility you made the point that if the Jays did acquire him it would be to set up another deal in moving one of their starting pitchers. My question is why are you so comfortable with Romero (ace not doubt), Morrow (170 inning pitch limit), Cecil (a good 3rd at least for sure), but then 2 huge questions marks in Kyle Drabek (never done anything in the show before), Litsch, Z, Reyes? In my opinion they have 3 good starters but I am worried that one will end up on the DL at some point, and then many question marks beyond them.

Thanks,

Mike, Cambridge, Ont.

A-I'm comfortable with that five-man rotation because the Jays as an organization are continuing to insist they are setting up for 2012 and beyond and really need to find out about Drabek, Zep. Jo-Jo and Litsch. It's not to say they're tanking in 2011, but if they replaced one of those back-of-the-rotation guys with Slowey, having to give up solid parts because the Twins aren't going to give him away, what does that accomplish. However if the Jays keep Slowey in the rotation and then move a guy like Cecil for something good, then it makes sense. I would not make the Slowey trade if I was running the Jays.

Q-Hi Richard,

What's your take on Eric Thames? He seems to be an under-the-radar young talent who's developing quickly. Could we see this guy make an impact with the Jays anytime this year? The outfield is probably the weakest area for the team right now, is there an opportunity for him to see some time?

Colin W., Mississauga, Ont.

A-Eric Thames has been an eye-opener at camp this spring, so much so that heading into the weekend he leads the Jays in Grapefruit League at-bats. Defensively he's a work in progress and can only play left field, but with just two left-handed bats in the starting lineup and with only Corey Patterson as a projected bench player from the left side, I could easily see Thames spending some major league time at some point this season. In his second year at Pepperdine, the most beautiful campus in America, Thames was being heavily scouted by the Red Sox and Yankees and should have been at least a second-round pick. He had torn a hamstring in Junior College and late in his next draft year tore a quadriceps that dropped his value down to the 7^th round where to his credit, J.P. Ricciardi's Jays took a chance. Thames is now a yoga freak for flexibility and strength, cutting back on his weight training, and it has paid off. This past winter, he studied YouTube video of Jose Bautista and others to get prepared for his swing earlier and has been great this spring.

 

 

 

Jays mailbag: Lawrie shows he's close, very close

The Jays have had a relatively injury free spring thus far and that has as much to do with youth as it does anything else.

John Farrell on Wednesday insisted that he feels he has a solid offensive nucleus at every position and that allows flexibility, meaning that he could afford to carry one or two light-hitting or slumping bats in the lineup.

That being said, there is thankfully room for the classy John McDonald on occasion filling in around the infield, or room for a struggling J.P. Arencibia out of the chute even combined with the ever-light hitting Jose Molina.

They can afford to be patient with one or two slumps.

An interesting exercise, though, is to go around the diamond offensively and ask the question: Who would the Jays miss the most if he was injured or disabled for a significant period of time.

At catcher, Molina could take over from Arencibia and they would eventually find a way to promote Travis D'Arnaud, depending on how far into the season it was.

If Lind went down at first base, Edwin Encarnacion could handle it.

If Jose Bautista was injured it would speed the promotion of Brett Lawrie.

If any of the outfielders or the DH went down, that means Scott Podsednik or Corey Patterson could step up, or else they would do the Bautista/Lawrie position/promotion shuffle again.

But right now, the toughest Jays to replace for any significant length of time are the two guys up the middle in Yunel Escobar and Aaron Hill. Johnny Mac could fill in but eventually they would need to find an option that can provide more offence and still play major-league D. There is talent in the minors at the middle infield positions, but is it ready for prime time?

On to the mailbag.

Q. Hey Richard! I am really enjoying being able to read the boxscores again!! Spring is in the air!

I read a piece today that Kevin Slowey might be on the trade block in Minnesota. I also seemed to remember that they had been kicking tires on Jason Frasor last year. Any chance of the Jays going after another young (26), controllable (2 more years of arbitration) starting pitcher?

Also, have you heard any rumblings on a possible deal for a third baseman, or a new home for Juan Rivera?? Enjoy the Florida sun!

Jon Empringham, Woodstock

A. As for the case for acquiring Slowey, see the blog item I posted on Wednesday evening.

Sure the Jays have an overabundance of bullpen guys, but remember that the Twins did not value Jon Rauch enough to re-sign him during the winter, so now would he be among the type of guys that they want to give up their sixth starter for.

The 26-year-old Slowey is a guy with major-league credentials, but in the long term is he even a better fit with the Jays than some of the guys fighting for the fourth and fifth starter's spots right now?

As I say in the earlier blog posting, it would make some sense for the Jays if it was setting up another move for GM Alex Anthopoulos involving another current starting pitcher.There are no fresh rumblings about a trade for a third baseman.

I believe that the coaching staff is really high on Brett Lawrie's future and the future is near. I believe that Juan Rivera is merely keeping the right field seat warm for the day in mid-season when Lawrie is promoted to play third base and Jose Bautista is shifted back to right. That is the alignment that Jays' fans want to see sooner rather than later. That is the alignment that will be part of the contending Jays in a year, moving forward.

Forget about trading for a third baseman. The future of the position is already here.

Lawrie has been impressive this spring, making plays that nobody thought he was prepared to make, yet.

Q. Hi Richard. So one of the guys that seems to be getting a lot of play and doing well with the Jays this spring training is Eric Thames. What do you think his chances are of filling the hole at first base at some point this season?

Jon Weier, Toronto

A. Eric Thames has opened eyes this spring and is etting a lot of playing time. The northern California native had a great year at AA-New Hampshire in 2010 and then worked on his own with an unusual batting coach, YouTube, over the off-season, checking out videos of Jose Bautista and J.P. Arencibia among others watching for an improved timing, getting prepared earlier, the key to J-Bau's tremendous power surge.

He is not the fastest runner, the most powerful hitter, hit for the highest average, the best defender or have the best arm, but he does everything well enough to play in the majors at some point.

I don't see him as a first baseman, but he will make it as an outfielder at some point. Nice kid too.

Q. How patient are the Jays going to be in regards to Hill's poor hitting average?? One month? Two months? Or the entire season?

Brian Saville, Peterborough

A. The key with Hill will be whether the Jays decide to pick up his options for 2012-14, which they have to decide by Opening Day.

If they wait until the season starts, then they must decide by the start of next year's free agent deadline whether they want to pick up 2012-13 options. If not he becomes a free agent after 2011.

My personal belief is that the Jays will let this year's deadline pass and then they will watch Hill as if it is a free agent year for him. The pressure, albeit a positive pressure, will be on the player and therefore, I believe they need to stick with Hill as a starter all year, no matter the struggles, and see what they have moving forward.

If they benched him in a season in which they are trying to find things out, that would be counter-productive.

Many players take a deep breath and play their best when they know they are playing for the next contract. Basically that is where Hill would find himself if the Jays decided not to pick up all three years of the option by April 1.If he plays well, they can lock up the reasonable option years through 2013 and play it by ear after that.

Q. How has David Purcey looked? Everyone seems ready to annoint him as the Scott Downs replacement, but Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco fare pretty well against left-handed batters too. Is Purcey going to be consistent enough to be counted on over the course of a season?

Jason Sinnarajah, San Francisco

A. People should remember that at 29, which is the age Purcey will be pitching at this year, not even Scott Downs had become the replacement for Scott Downs. It wasn't until he was 31 that Downs became the reliable lefty specialist and part-time closer that he became.

Purcey in his last appearance walked all three batters that he faced, but that is the battle that he always has. He needs to be more consistent so that in game situations the manager can rely on him to come in and throw strikes.

Manager John Farrell addressed the Purcey question on Wednesday: “It comes down to consistency. You can look back to a number of different relievers. If they become an everyday reliever or more established reliever it can happen at all stages. Some come later. Some come earlier. We're not near the spot where we're going to turn the page and give up on him. We just have to get him in a position to deliver more consistent strikes.”

Regarding having a second lefty Farrell said: “It would be helpful, particularly when you look at our division. To go in without some depth left-handed is a little bit of a naked feeling. That doesn't mean we're going to take left-handers just for the sake of taking left-handers. We'll take the best pitchers, but with some balance we're probably a better team.”

As for righties that get lefties out, Francisco is one but he's going to close. Carlos Villanueva and Shawn Camp are pretty good, also. As for a second lefty, maybe Marc Rzepczynski or Jo-Jo Reyes. The other plethora of lefty guys have been pitching themselves out of the picture as time goes by.

Q. I wish that MLB would go to the DH everywhere, as pitchers never hitting in the minors makes them extra useless in MLB.

Drop The Gloves, via Twitter

A. I believe that as long as Bud Selig is the commissioner that the DH will never be a part of NL play. But of course he's leaving office as early as next year. The next guy in that office may consider it but not before the next Basic Agreement is negotiated, not the one that expires in 2011.

I used to be a NL supporter of no DH all the way, but after being in the AL covering the Jays and the World Series for 17 years now, I have turned around and believe one set of rules is the only answer and since the union will never allow the DH to be banished (they are usually high-priced veteran guys that help set the salary bar at a higher level) then I am all for the DH everywhere.

Most pitchers are athletes, but the fact that from high school through the minors has the DH makes it silly to make them hit in the majors.

Q. Hi Richard. When anyone brings up the benefits of the Blue Jays being in the AL Central you always point out that the Blue Jays would lose out on revenue by reducing the number of home games against the Yankees and Red Sox.

While this is true, I feel that the reason for the terrible attendance at Rogers Centre is not only the lack of playoffs since 1993 but also the lack of meaningful games in August or September since that time. It appears that fans have simply lost hope with the Blue Jays and it is hard to argue against that.

If the Jays were in the Central I find it difficult to believe that they would not have made the playoffs at least a few times in the last two decades.

Every year games would actually mean something as it would not be a foregone conclusion that they would miss the playoffs. Give the fans hope and I would think that instead of having crowds of 11,000 against less desirable teams the crowds would probably at least be in the 20,000 or above range thereby more than offsetting the effect of having the Yanks and Red Sox here 6 less times per year. Do you agree that Jays fans have lost hope (remember it has been two decades)?

Greg Huzel, Winnipeg

A. Jays fans have not lost hope. Hope is just hiding out in the witness protection program.

Fans were brainwashed under the J.P. Ricciardi/Paul Godfrey regime into blaming the Red Sox and Yankees and their huge payrolls for the competition woes that the Jays have had.

In the meantime, other medium payroll teams have gone on and advanced to the World Series from the American League.

The new regime of Alex Anthopoulos/Paul Beeston believes that if you've got to beat these guys anyway to get to the Series, why not play in the same division and just outwork, outscout asnd outsmart them. It can be done. The problem with believing that being in contention in August will increase attendance significantly is that historically it's never happened before.

The Jays need to reach the playoffs and then they will be able to sell tickets in that next offseason and have 1.6 million sold by Opening Day. You can never rely on the walkup crowd to make your attendance; it's the pre-sales, season and groups, areas that the Jays have struggled with since the '94 strike.

Q. Richard, A comment and a question. I spent a week at spring training this year and I'm sold. I want to do it every year.

I recommend checking out the Jays (meagre) practice facility. Fans can really get up close and interact with the players. In fact I snuck into their gym and got the clubbies to give me some free Jays paraphenalia. But that's a long story. Great trip all around.

Do you see the Jays giving Lawrie the third baseman gig? He's done nothing but impress thus far at camp, and he looks like the hardest working guy on the roster.

Peter Maslow, Hamilton

A. Hey, I have never been able to sneak into the gym. I am jealous.

As for Lawrie, I have a feeling there is a significant voice in the coaches room and front office that would love to see him in the majors sooner rather than later.

He is a pure athlete and so the transition to third base has seemed effortless. He makes that quick feed to second base as well as anyone I 've seen in a while and has good baseball instincts. He works hard and prepares hard.

So what if one time somebody duct taped huge vats of liquor to his hand. Who hasn't had that happen? My thinking is that will let him get his feet under him at AAA-Las Vegas and then bring him up and move Jose Bautista back to right.

Q. Dear Richard: My family will be vacationing in southern New Hampshire and Boston in August. We have already purchased Fisher Cats and Red Sox tickets. Do you know of any restaurants or other attractions in and around both Manchester, N.H., and Boston, Mass., that we should experience?

Paul Raphael, Mississauga

A. The best idea is to log onto a website like www.HelloManchester.com and see what strikes your fancy. Eric Thames spent last summer there and described it as “like Boston in the woods”. Thames said everything is “wicked this and wicked that with a lot of Sam Adams beer.” As for Boston, the Paul Revere Trail and Harvard University are can't miss. The original Cheers bar is disappointing. Fenway Park and the surrounding neighbourhood with its famed restauraunts and bars are wicked.

Jays mailbag: Inside the Michael Young trade demand

One of the wonderfully unique aspects of major-league spring training is to wander around the camps of the long-established iconic franchises and see the old-time superstars of the game in uniform, wanting to help out, wanting to stay connected, always eager to stop and chat baseball. For many former greats, baseball is for life.

Such was the case at Tigers camp in Lakeland on Tuesday, standing out near the home clubhouse in the right field corner watching the rain pelt down and having Hall-of-Fame outfielder Al Kaline push through the door and wander by a group of Toronto scribes, in full uniform.

I shook his hand and asked Kaline his thoughts about the late Duke Snider. It should be noted that Snider and Kaline shared the stage in 1980, when both were greeted to Cooperstown and baseball immortality.   

“Duke was a great gentleman,” Kaline said. “When you go into the Hall at the same time, you sort of get a bond between the two of us. We got to be pretty close and for the couple of years he came back (to Cooperstown) it was always great seeing him. He was a super guy, just a great man.”

“The ability to treat people with respect is just the way I've always seen him. He was perceived as a real friendly guy and he appreciated the fact that he was able to play baseball. In New York, in the heyday of baseball (with three teams) it was Mickey, Willie and The Duke. It was a great song and it was tremendous for him to be compared to those two great players.”

There is no doubt that 1980 was a great year for the Hall-of-Fame.

On to the mailbag.

Q. This is not about the Blue Jays but rather your article on Duke Snider...a man who along with Gordie Howe, was my childhood hero. Here's a little story that tells all about the Duke. When my son was 10 years old, I planned to take he and his pals to an Expos game. On a whim, I checked the Montreal telephone directory and lo and behold, there's Duke Snider's name and number. (Now tell me, how many celebrities list their contact information in the phone book? Most are hiding their identity.) Anyway, Duke agreed to meet me, my son and his pals before the game, he spoke with the kids, signed their baseball gloves and overall, was just a great guy (not to mention giving me a thrill). A real gentleman and a great player.
Paul Newman, Oakville

A. I have thought further about Duke Snider, the person, and what likely made him so revered and respected. He is not unique in what he did in social situations, but is still special as a sports icon. I'm a keen observer of life and there are a lot of celebrities who treat people well in one-on-one conversation by self-effacingly, with doses of false humility, taking a step down, trying to convince their audience that, hey we're all the same, we all put pants on one leg at a time. That's good but when the moment is over, they know it's not true.

There are other celebrities like Duke Snider who was comfortable with his status in life as a sports hero and didn't try to hide it. He tried to share it. For the short time they are together, athletes like Duke elevate their new friend du jour to their own level and make them feel for a shining moment that they also are very special, more important than when they entered the room. Duke never apologized for celebrity and was always willing to share it generously. 

Q. Richard. Your story on the 'Duke' was superb, I listened for years to Dave & Duke on CFCF in Montreal and he was a great announcer and 'colour commentator'. It is truly a shame that he won’t make the Hall of Fame with Dave Van Horne. As an old Dodgers fan, the Duke must be close to the last of the Brooklyn players left. It’s always sad to say goodbye to those players who meant so much to us when we were growing up.
David Delcloo, 
Kingston

A. What's amazing to me is that the list of Expos' TV analysts before Duke Snider included Don Drysdale, Pee Wee Reese and Jackie Robinson. That's a pretty impressive list. As far as the remaining living Dodgers from the final Brooklyn team in 1957 before they moved to Los Angeles, that list includes a higher total than you might imagine: Charlie Neal, Gino Cimoli, Don Zimmer, Randy Jackson, Joe Pignatano, Jim Gentile, Rod Miller, Don Newcombe, Denny McDevitt, Roger Craig, Sandy Koufax, Ed Roebuck, Carl Erskine, Ken Lehman, Bill Harris and Fred Kipp. As for Dodger fans, they are seemingly immortal.

Q. Hi Richard. Can you tell me why draft picks are never traded in baseball?
Thanks.
J. Fleming, Huntsville

A. I admire major-league baseball for not allowing the trading of draft picks. It would allow bad general managers to compensate for incompetence in scouting by trading their long-term choices for instant gratification thus burying their franchise in perpetuity.

Shrewd GMs could all of a sudden trade minor-league excess depth for future draft choices, while bad GMs could cover up incompetence with temporary Band-aid solutions.

In fact, the current system of free agency Types A & B is almost like trading picks. It's a system that allows teams compensation picks for lost free agents, helping teams that are losing players either obtain extra picks for their departing player or else have a floor of talent from which to operate in terms of trade demands.

For example at the July 31 trade deadline if you are looking to trade a Type A free agent for a half season, you know you must give up at least the equivalent of a late-first-round pick and a second round talent from your system. It won't change soon.

Q. Almost 20 years now since we had baseball in October. I would like to know who to blame for that. Was it Paul Beeston and Pat Gillick who, hot with recent success, lobbied for inclusion with the two-headed monster of the East or did that decision come out of the league? Flip the Jays and the Indians and Toronto gets a history of playoff races and good rivalries with Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota.
J Galli, Windsor

A. That's a very interesting question trying to trace the demise of the Jays since the strike in '94. The Jays won back-to-back World Series in 1992-93 then came the strike and the change in division and playoff structure.

Since the addition of two teams to the MLB playoff hunt in 1995, the brainchild of Bud Selig, in the ensuing 16 years only the Yankees have ever won back-to-back World Series (1998-2000).

As for Beeston or Gillick being at fault in deciding they wanted to join the AL East, I would prefer to blame world geography for the alignment that has the Jays tilting at windmills. It's pretty well impossible to argue that Detroit or Chicago or Cleveland is farther east than Toronto. I Googled it.

Besides, both former Jays executives realized that nine home games with the Red Sox and the Yankees each could make their attendance numbers sing, which is worth more than the possibility of winning a wild-card in the weaker AL Central. There would be no guarantees in that circumstance, ether. The fact is even with a second wild card being hypothetically added going back to '95, the Jays give the standings would only have made the playoffs once.   

Q. Hi Richard. A few weeks ago, you piqued my interest with the possible interest by the Jays in Michael Young. Whatever happened? Why did he remain with the Rangers if there is no home for him there? Love your column and thanks for your insights.
Ryan Maxwell, Meaford

A. The Jays were definitely interested in Young and inquired at the winter meetings in December after the Adrian Beltre signing by the Rangers. It would have been $48 million for the next three years, minus what the Rangers were willing to pay, but the Rangers had with sincerity told him they wanted him to be DH, super-sub. He is a clubhouse leader for the young Rangers. After that while the Rangers furtively explored trade options and pissed him off, the Jays remained on the periphery.

When Young found out about the back-door negotiations for his services, he then demanded a trade. The Rangers have tried hard to heal the wound and it seems under control, but if Jays' GM Alex Anthopoulos could find a good deal for his club, especially if it included a third team with multiple players, then he would go back to work. Young is not necessarily a Ranger for the opener.   

Q. After enjoying the NBA all-star festivities, it got me thinking about the MLB game. Why don't they try to mix things up by adding different skills competitions instead of just a home run contest? Why not get some of the other players involved, perhaps the most accurate throw from the outfield, or fastest around the bases? Any ideas?
Matt Hazel, Antigonish

A. I'm pretty sure that at a particular all-star game in the '80s there were other skills competitions than the Home Run Derby. If I recall correctly, someone got hurt by over-throwing or running too hard.

The extra baseball skills would be far more stressful and dangerous to valuable team properties as far as expensive players are concerned than the NBA's skill set. How do you hurt yourself by shooting three-pointers or throwing a bounce pass into a barrel? But running the bases and throwing from the corner, especially the length of time that TV draws out these events. The home run derby concept goes back to the days of Mickey Mantle and Henry Aaron as a TV event and the fact of the matter is the Monday ratings at the All-Star Game are great. If it ain't broke...

Q. Richard. Hope you're enjoying spring training in Florida. I see that Baseball America has released their top-100 prospects list. I'm interested in your take on the list. Kyle Drabek, Travis D'Arnaud, Brett Lawrie and Deck McGuire made the list. But Anthony Gose, J.P. Arencibia, and Adeiny Hechevaria were nowhere to be found. There were 15 pitchers rated higher than Drabek. Our top-rated prospect at No. 29 is the lowest we've had in a few years. Is our farm system truly on the upswing or is it overhyped?
Frank S, Toronto

A. First of all you have to consider that on a Top 100 list with 30 major-league teams that the average per organization would be 3.33 players per organization. The Jays have four.  So it would be pretty tough to be that much far above the average considering the Jays' farm system in the recent past has been ranked in the 20s out of 30 for the past four years. For me, in the top 100 prospects, I would have five Jays – Drabek, Lawrie, Gose, Arencibia and Hechavarria. It's a very hit-and-miss list almost as tough as when you are drafting players...but not quite. D'Arnaud is very mobile and athletic behind the plate but has a long way to go offensively and rating him in the Top 100 is a leap of faith. Arencibia has already been PCL MVP and should be rated ahead of him. McGuire is a nice prospect but has a lot to learn and before he approaches the majors and may in fact be passed by the more experienced Zach Stewart and a bunch of other Jays' 2010 June picks, some of whom were invited to minor-league mini-camp. Regular readers know how strongly I feel about Gose's future. Good kid. Good player.  

Q. In your years since covering the team as a columnist, would you say that (in Travis Snider, Scott Podsednik, Corey Patterson, and Juan Rivera) this is the weakest of all Jays' outfields, as far as home run power and offence/arm-strength is concerned?
Darrell Holtze, Guelph

A. You forgot about Rajai Davis. However I don't think the addition of Davis improves the scenario for the outfield in the skill areas you describe. Without the departed Vernon Wells and without third baseman Jose Bautista in the Jays' outfield, at the moment it is not very good. This group in any Fantasy League advice magazine does not feature an outfielder in the top 50. Yes it might be the worst going into a season, but if Snider becomes the player he is expected to, it may improve.

Q. I was reading recently a statistic that said only 5 per cent of young prospects who sign a contract with an MLB team actually get to the bigs. Makes we wonder about all the talk about the renewed vigour in the Jays farm system. Realistically, how many new stars are we likely to be seeing per year come out of the farm system? And of the high profile more advanced prospects like Gose, Lawrie, Hechevarria etc., what percentage of that crowd are likely to meet the high expectations that are held for them?
Thanks.
Donald Wright, Los Gatos

A. That's a very good comment and helps to explain the reason why the Jays were right to sign Jose Bautista and not even think about waiting until the trade deadline to obtain two or three prospects.

The Jays already are suddenly deep at Double and Triple-A. Why keep feeding the minor-league beast when optimistically, only about three players from each level are going to make a true impact in the majors.

However, it should be considered that baseball has 50 rounds times 30 teams, plus sandwich compensation which amounts to 1,530 players drafted per year, some 1,200 of whom sign. Looking back unscientifically, it seems about an average of four or five players per franchise ever reach the majors. That's higher than the NBA which of course has two rounds and 12 players.

The Jays farm system is certainly re-invigourated in the last two years and it's good that fanatic Jays fans seem to have as much interest as they do in the guys on the farm. The fun now is in following the many potential hopefuls throughout the year and trying to guess which players are going to make it. Just remember when the experts are rating the Top 100 it's all an educated guess.


Q. Hello Mr. Griffin. Thanks as always for you information and insight into the Jays. Would the Jays ever consider having Kyle Drabek start the season in the bullpen? Similar to Chapman did with the Reds last season? This could give him MLB experience and make the 4th and 5th starters decision easier? Thanks.
Phil McCloskey, Orangeville

A. The Jays would never consider moving Drabek to the bullpen, even though one of their many young starters is eventually going to become the closer.

Keeping him on the major-league roster as a long reliever would be counter-productive not only to Drabek but to the Jays. It always seems like long relievers enter after a starter has been ya-hammered in a game and, in that case, where's the improvement, the learning curve.

There's an uncertain pitching pattern in long relief and never seems a stressful situation that is the difference between winning and losing when you enter a game with your team far behind. In Drabek's situation or anyone that soon has a chance to be a major-league starter, the season is long and every year a major-league team needs at least a depth chart of nine starters. Better to have Drabek pitching every five days at Triple-A and catch a flight from Vegas in a moment of need than have him waiting on the sidelines in Toronto with no flow to his year.     

Jays mailbag: Bautista, Bautista and more Bautista

At this moment I'm still at home gratefully packing for a 4:20 p.m. Air Canada flight to Dunedin on Wednesday aternoon heading to spring training.

It's actually the latest date in February for a Florida departure for this columnist since my frst year in Toronto in 1995 at which time the real players were regrettably still on strike and the “replacement player” experiment was being peddled to a skeptical, savvy, not-buying-into-it public.

The Jays' organization, to its credit, was preparing back then to play the entire '95 home schedule at Dunedin Stadium, with Bob Didier as manager, allowing real manager Cito Gaston to maintain his dignity and credibility -- and lower his handicap.

The real major-league Jays players meanwhile were forced to practice on their own at local high schools and public parks waiting for the strike to be settled...which it was on the eve of phony Opening Day in Miami.

My personal crisis that spring, having spent 23 years in the National League and then coming to Toronto, was that when I showed up at that particular day's ever-changing Jays' workout venue somewhere in the Dunedin area, the only guy I recognized was Dave Martinez, an outfielder who had just recently played for the Expos.

The Globe & Mail's beat guy Larry Millson, who I had known well from multiple beer-soaked sunrises on long Montreal homestands during Expos' pennant races in the early '80s, laughed his butt off at this rookie columnist's daily dilemma but he always ended up helping, quietly slipping a note with the Jays' proper identities (I think).

The season finally opened in late April and there has been labour peace in MLB ever since, although the Jays have never recovered from the season-ticket hit they took that year. Thursday at 1 p.m. I'll open from Dunedin with a live chat online. On to the mailbag.        

Q. My question is in regard to Jose Bautista's new contract. Often teams will give a player a multi-year contract where the player's salary increases over the last few years. With the Jays not planning on competing this year, and extra money to spend now, why couldn't the Jays do the reverse? Give Bautista the same $64-million deal but pay him around $20 million this year and/or next year, then go down from there. This would give the Jays more financial flexibility when they are that "one player away" from really competing and need the extra money to make a big signing.

Josh Cymbalista, Thornhill

A. The Jays' $1 million buyout of Bautista's $14 million option year in 2016 actually makes the official guaranteed value of the five-year contract $65 million, with the average annual value being $13 million.

The details start with an $8 million payment in 2011, followed by $14 million for each of the finaI four guaranteed years. Then comes the option season, by which time Bautista will be a 35-years-old.

I originally had the same thought as you in that given the money they saved on Wells, Overbay, Downs, Gregg et al this year, the Jays might have been wise to front-end load the Bautista contract, with the least money being doled out in 2014-15, but they didn't.

Then I re-thought that logic, trying to place myself in GM Alex Anthopoulos's shoes. When you think about it realistically, with no salary cap in baseball to worry about, it doesn't make much difference in what order you pay the money out. Rogers ownership quite frankly has the financial wherewithal to put any or all of the $65M aside right now in an interest-bearing account if they so desired. There is also the factor that the Jays already had a $5 million obligation to send to the Angels for Vernon Wells. Combine that debt with Bautista's '11 money, and it adds up to $13 million.

The other thing is Bautista was headed to arbitration at either $7.6 million or $10.5 million if they had not been able to work out the long-term deal. Perhaps Anthopoulos was concerned that in future years, if  he had started the Bautista contract with a $15 million season, that number might be used by future arbitration-eligible Jays as a precedent, complicating matters. Then again, it might just signal that Anthopoulos was still planning on the possibility of adding another big contract prior to this season.    

Q. Richard. My problem with the Bautista deal is not so much that he has no track record of producing at the level he did last year — it is that he has a lengthy track record of producing at an underwhelming level. To use an example close to home, Adam Lind had no track record of performing at the level he did in 2009 (.305 average, 35 home runs, 114 Rbis), and yet he signed for a steeply-discounted $18 million over four years. Why does Bautista, (who at some point in time over the course of this deal will become a diminishing asset) merit three times the amount given to a young player who appeared to be on the rise?

Neil Paris, Toronto

 

A. There is a huge, huge difference in the rationale and the amount in the Jays negotiating Bautista's five years plus an option contract as opposed to Lind's four years plus three options deal signed on the eve of opening day last year.

The four guaranteed years for Lind were his arbitration years leading up to free agency. He had nowhere to go. That's automatically a lower price than buying out years of free agency.

The Jays made sure they also built in club options for what would be Lind's first three years of free agency (2014-16) at below market value. On the other hand, with Bautista, only the 2011 season was an arbitration year, after which they will be paying him market value for the first four years buying up his free agency.

There's a dramatic difference in terms of the gross amount of money to be paid between the two men. It's forever a two-way street. There are different advantages built in to the process both for player and for team in the Lind and Bautista deals.

For Lind, he's getting more money up front taking the mystery out of his arb years and also does not have to worry about injuries because the money is guaranteed. For the Jays there is cost certainty for the four years of his obligation prior to free-agency, then  they also have him for three free agent seasons at a reasonable price ... or not.

They can always let him go if it's not working out production-wise or if there's long-term injury. With Bautista, he receives his guaranteed free agency reward a year before his free-agent class in a city and clubhouse of his choosing, while the Jays for their part  removed all question marks and uncertainty surrounding 2011 and now have a contract with a player they hope will be an offensive cornerstone, also tradeable down the road, if circumstances change.   

Q. Why are people comparing the Bautista deal to the one signed by Uggla? Uggla has not only posted exceptional numbers (career OPS 100 points higher than Bautista's) but has also been the model of consistency over the past 5 years all while playing in one of the game's worst-hitter parks.

More importantly, Uggla is a middle infielder, not a corner outfielder, which increases his value tremendously. Personally, I am stunned by how many fans (and often media members) do not understand the relationship that exists between a player’s position, offensive output, and overall value. Valuing a power hitting middle infielder the same as power hitting corner outfielder (with similiar stats) makes about as much sense as the Leafs’ "rebuilding" plan. $65 mil over 5 years for Bautista is insane given his career numbers (not solely 2010) and age.

Kyle Smith, Toronto 

A. On the other hand has Uggla ever had a 54 home run season with a .995 OPS? Face it, teams are supposed to be paying future money for future performance, not throwing future cash at the past. It's all well and good to point out Uggla's consistency and his four straight 30-homer seasons, but which of the two men has the higher ceiling moving forward? Which is a better two-way player? Which is more important to the fabric of his team? In looking at the dollars, people underestimate the importance of simlar age and years of service in determining market value of MLB players, as a factor over homers, RBIs slugging average and OPS. Uggla and Bautista were born eight months apart and were each playing their final arbitration year prior to free agency. That, even more than recent on-field results, is why the two players were compared when it came to contract time.

Q. True or False: Rajai Davis and Jose Bautista are the first outfield combo with the same birth date since Ozzie and Jose Canseco.

Tony Baer, Baraboo

A. However, it should be noted Jose Canseco's biceps, triceps, quadriceps and lats are far younger than Ozzie's, although both twins apparently attended the same driving school.

Q. Love the blog. Scott Podsednick hit .297 and stole 35 bases last season. Nobody on the Blue Jays matched him in either category. Why did have such trouble finding a major league job?

Josh Lavine, Toronto

A. Good question. One reason might be the re-occuring foot problem that sees Scott reporting to Jays camp on Wednesday in a walking cast to ease the pain of his plantar fasciitis.

Another reason he may have had trouble finding a job this winter can be found in his personal transactions history.

Since turning pro in 1994, the 34-year-old lefthanded hitter has been traded three times, was selected in the Rule 5 draft, was plucked off waivers once and has been a free agent six times. Even after batting leadoff for the World Series champion White Sox in '05 and hanging with them for another two seasons, he has continued to have trouble gaining respect.

Passed over and ignored? Consider that in this day and age, with 12 pitchers on most staffs, the versatility of bench players becomes of utmost importance. Podsednik is a lefthanded thrower that does not play first base or the infield. At age 34, earning over $1 million, there are younger, cheaper, more versatile options for teams to have coming off the bench. The Jays became a logical landing site after the Wells trade to the Angels and with new manager John Farrell's desire to upgrade team speed. He or Corey Patterson should make the team.  

Q. Hi Richard. I like the Bautista signing for all the reasons AA said. Another consideration is the if (maybe it's a big if) he hits say 40+ home runs in 2011, he's a $25-30 million Yankee or Red Sox playing against us in 2012. That would be a lose-lose for us.

Gerry Bleau

A. Hey, realize nobody has ever been able to post consecutive seasons of 40+ home runs without first having had one season of 40-plus home runs.

Since you bring up the Red Sox, it's worth mentioning once again the similar case of Big Papi. As a young player, David Ortiz was a lefthanded DH and occasional first baseman for the Twins.

In six Minnesota seasons, Papi hit 58 home runs. What a stiff. Then he went to the Red Sox and put up a 31-homer season in 2003 followed by 41, 47 and 54. His 54 home runs came at age 30, the same age as Bautista with the Jays in 2010.

The next season, his HR total dropped to 35, but he still drove in 117 runs and the Sox won their first World Series since 1918. Following the 2006 season at age 31, Ortiz signed what amounted to a five-year, $64.5-million contract (sound familiar) and was lauded for his loyalty, for cutting Boston some hometown slack.

And yes, if the Jays had not signed Bautista this winter and allowed him to play out his final season and if he did hit 40-plus homers again, the Jays would have ended up being asked for a lot more money and likely would not have paid it.

Rules of the Basic Agreement need to be optimized. When you have a star player and you have exclusive negotiating rights for 12 more months, why not take advantage and get a deal done. The dollar amount is nowhere near as onerous as that of Wells and is tradeable.   

Q. I love your column and baseball knowledge. I like Jose Bautista a lot and hope he does well, but I'm dumbfounded at the Blue Jays for giving out another albatross contract (think Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Frank Thomas, etc.). Could you explain how it's possible for Bautista to be awarded more years and total money (5 yrs, $64M) than both the NL MVP Joey Votto (3 yrs, $39M) and the AL MVP Josh Hamilton (2 yrs, $24M)?!?!

Votto has had one great season and two very good seasons, while Hamilton has had two great seasons. Bautista has had exactly one career year and even then only a .260 average, and is still only a .244 career hitter. Given all these numbers, Bautista definitely deserved less money ... why not something like 3 years $30M or an Aaron Hill-like contract with more club options and an increasing scale? I'm worried that awarding $65M might represent another very expensive Blue Jay mistake. From what I can see, the Dan Uggla contract is a bad one. I'm not sure how this became the one and only contract uses as a benchmark for negotiating with Bautista.

Thanks for listening.

Brian

A. There are huge differences between Bautista's contract compared to Votto and Hamilton. The key is that the Reds and Rangers negotiated those deals with their best hitters locking them up only through their arbitration years, bringing them to unrestricted free agency. Four of Bautista's years are free agent years. It's not primarily statistics that account for salary levels. As important is service time.

Consider there are three levels of contract negotiations between players and teams. The resultant salaries at those three levels are almost totally distinct.

First from 0-3 years of service (with some 2-plus exceptions called Super-Twos), the player is totally under team control. Most times that salary will range from major-league minimum (just over $400,000) to just under $1 million.

The second level is 3-6 years of major-league service during which a player is arbitration eligible. During those arbitration years contracts can almost be entirely predictable by running all the variables of service time, age and performance through a computer and comparing to those that have gone before.

Both club and agent have access to the same numbers which is why so many cases are settled before reaching an arbitration panel. The third level is six-plus years of service declaring free agency. This is the least predictable and most expensive level for teams. All you need is for one crazy, desperate, delusional ownership that thinks they are one player away from winning the Workd Series. Then all you need is that one team to overpay that one player and the ripple effect hits all free agents. That's why the players association loves A-Rod and loves the Yankees.

Jays mailbag: About Bautista's reported deal

The early fan reaction to Jose Bautista's reported five-year contract for $65 million guaranteed, plus an option has been decidedly negative. One-year wonder? Well, so far he has been but you must admit it was a wonderful one year.

Is he the baseball equivalent of some other one-hit wonders, maybe Knockin' Boots, Ride Captain Ride, Funkytown, Rapper's Delight or Billy Ray Cyrus's forgettable Achy Breaky Heart? Maybe. But the seemingly valid comparison to Dan Uggla's freshly negotiated five-year, $62 million deal with the Braves has not sold Jays fans on the wisdom of inking the current MLB home-run king with the journeyman past to anything more than his final arbitration year.

Consider that David Ortiz was 27 before he hit 30 homers and was 30 when he hit his own 54 homers. That's a year older than Bautista played at last year. Consider the legendary Arthur was a mere stable urchin until he pulled the sword from the stone. Then he became king and never looked back. Sometimes people are late bloomers and 29 is not really ancient.

The argument is made by doubters that despite being the same age (Bautista eight months younger) and with the same “five-plus” service time (Bautista an extra 170 days), that Uggla more deserved his money because of his 30-homer consistency over the last four seasons. But that's also a ceiling. I think that whenever it is finally announced, even given  the reported terms, it will be a solid signing for the Jays. Bautista's value to his club is more than just with a bat in his hands. He is a far better defender at two positions than Uggla. He is a far bigger clubhouse presence than is Uggla, relied upon by his team for more than just on-field accomplishments.

Bautista's ceiling, considering his 54 homers, 100 walks, 124 RBIs and .995 OPS in 2010 is clearly higher than Uggla's. Consider that throughout major-league baseball in 2011, there will be 55 players that will earn more than $12 million (total of guaranteed money averaged out per year on their current deal), according to the reliable Cot's Baseball Contracts website. That is almost two $12 million-plus players per franchise. Bautista will be the only one on the Jays once his contract is finalized. Those player in 2011 in a similar range between $12-14 million include: Bautista, Uggla, Chipper Jones, K-Rod, Chase Utley, Brad Lidge, Victor Martinez, Paul Konerko, Chris Carpenter, Joey Votto, Jorge Posada, J.D. Drew, David Ortiz, Todd Helton, Justin Morneau, Mark Buehrle and Adam Dunn.     

Q: In regards to Bautista, would it not be a wise idea to sign him for one year via arbitration, see if his season was a fluke or not? As he is 31 years old, and with the Jays looking to compete in 2012 and the seasons to follow, why not keep an eye on Bautista in 2011, and if this season is like last for him, why not trade him before the deadline for blue chip prospects? This train of thought seems more inline with A.A's direction than signing a 31-year-old to a 5-year contract when the Jays aren't even in compete "mode", they are still in the rebuilding stage.

Scott Cochrane, Niagara-on-the-Lake

A: First of all, Bautista will be playing the 2011 season as a 30-year-old. The one big advantage the Jays had until 15 days after this year's 2011 World Series is that they are the only ones with the exclusive ability to negotiate with Bautista. Use it. If they had chosen to “keep an eye” on  the home-run king for a second year to see if it was a fluke and if he then had another powerful season, the price would have gone up and competition for his services would likely have knocked the Jays out of the box. As for the strategy of trading him at the deadline for “blue chip prospects” that's always easier said than done. As a likely Type A free agent playing out his contract heading into free agency, you would have to get back the equivalent of a first-round prsopect and a sandwich-level pick, minimum. Recall the Jays got pitchers Zach Stewart and Josh Roenicke from the Reds for Scott Rolen, but Rolen was still under contract for a year and a half when the Reds acquired him. Besides, at some point the “rebuilding” must end and the will to compete for a post-season berth must kick in. Under your scenario, it seems keeping Bautista long-term was never an option. Under Anthopoulos' scenario keeping Bautista long-term seems to be clearly in line with his “direction” moving forward to competing in 2012. 

Q: Hey Richard,

How important is it that AA signs Bautista in order to show the other latin players coming up that Toronto is not a stepping stone to somewhere better. You can play your career in Toronto.

Michael S, Toronto

A: Just as when the Jays had a huge Latin American profile in the heyday of scout Epy Guerrero in the early to mid-'80s, with guys like Alfredo Griffin, Tony Fernandez, Damaso Garcia and George Bell, when young kids in the streets of the Dominican Republic walked around wearing Jays hats, the pending Bautista signing to a huge multi-year deal, highlighted by the professional way the Jays have handled the risk-reward situation with the power-hitting Dominican, anticipating the positive spinoff effect it will have on their current Latin players like Yunel Escobar, Edwin Encarnacion, Octavio Dotel, Carlos Villanueva, Frank Francisco, Jose Molina and Adeiny Hechavarria, it offsets some of the criticism that the Jays may have overpaid their player. There is more than just statistics and breakdowns to consider. This is not the Yankees throwing money around on a whim. This is an up and coming organization trying to rebuild its image and enhance its profile in the free-agent world.   

Q: Richard,

With all the talk about who will fill in the back end of the rotation I was wondering how Dustin McGowan was coming along. A few years ago him and Shaun Marcum were young studs, then both got hurt, and hurt again, then managed to injure themselves. Marcum eventually made it back, is there any hope of a timeline for a possible McGowan return? And any hope of a return to form?

Matt Driscoll, Toronto

A: Don't count on the 29-year-old McGowan at any point in 2011 — at least at the major-league level. He has missed the last two seasons and is continuing to do his best to rehab and as long as he is willing to fight, the Jays will stick with him. He has had two shoulder surgeries and one knee surgery since last pitching in a major-league game. Shoulders are far less predictable than elbows because of the number of muscles and other things in the shoulder compared to the elbow joint. McGowan has not yet begun throwing from a mound again and the fact is that if he misses another full season, there are very few pitchers that have missed three years and have come back. The Jays have a number of young starting pitchers in the minor-league hopper that are passing McGowan month-by-month.

Q: Hi Richard,

I was just wondering if Albert Pujols does not sign an extension with the Cardinals, would the Blue Jays have an interest in perhaps trading for him. They likely have the assets to do so. What do you think?

Joe DiFranco, Mississauga

A: It would make no sense for the Jays to make an offer unless they are willing to sign Pujols long-term for 10 years, $300 million, which is what he reportedly wants and which the Jays are not likely to do. Besides, the reports are that Pujols has insisted he will invoke his no-trade clause for 2011 if the Cards try and deal him before the end of his contract. The Cards want to wn the NL Central.

Q: I have seen much written on who will make the Jays pen and why. It seems like everyone has Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch and Jason Frasor as sure things and most likely Shawn Camp & David Purcey in as well. I also hear the names of Casey Janssen & Carlos Villanueva and few others. Nowhere do I hear or see the name Wil Ledezma. Why is that? Seems to me to be a perfect guy to come in and face that one lefty in the 7th or 8th, yet because he was sent to Triple A and is a non-roster invite to spring training he doesn’t warrant a mention?

Shawn Keba, Caledon

A: I have mentioned Ledezma in past mailbags and columns. I always liked him as a bullpen part when he was with the Tigers. You listed eight Jays' names for 2011 and yes those are the top eight names that have been mentioned. One of the main reasons those guys are always talked about is that other than Purcey, the other seven guys have guaranteed contracts for more than $1 million. Tough to send them to the minors. Therein lies the Jays' dilemma. With five starters, there is room for only seven relievers on the 25-man roster. The seven guaranteed contracts are all righthanders. That means out of the group of four lefties – Purcey, Jesse Carlson, Jo-Jo Reyes and Ledezma, the only way to carry two of those guys is to clear the decks of two of those millionaire righties. The bullpen situation will be interesting to watch as opening day approaches. Ledezma deserves a mention.

Q: Do you think that the Jays would undo the Roy Halladay trade today if they were able to? Financially, they could easily afford to pay him through 2013 and if their goal is to compete in 2012/2013 they would be more competitive with Doc as the No 1 instead of Drabek at 4. They also would still would have tons of flexibility financially to sign other players. (If they also held on to Marcum, they might have had the top rotation in the MLB in 2012/2013)

Josh Cymbalista, Thornhill

A: That's a great, multi-layered question and you make some good points. The bottom line is that the Halladay trade was necessary for Anthopoulos to move forward to building a sustainable contender for the wild-card (especially of they add another one) starting in 2012 and beyond. Doc was the equivalent of human handcuffs. Dealing Halladay to the Phillies signalled to his own players, to his staff and to other GMs where the Jays were heading. If he had kept Halladay, every move would have had to be made towards winning right here, right now, which, when you think about it was one of the reasons J.P. Ricciardi was replaced because of his kneejerk reaction to every five-game winning streak, to every 85-win season as being the surefire stepping stone to the post-season. It never turned out that way because of the short-term nature of most of J.P.'s player-acquisition moves. If the Jays had kept Halladay, how could A.A. have ever traded Wells, because that would have been a signal they were rebuilding which would not have been the promose they made to Doc. And with Halladay earning $20 million per year moving forward and with Wells at $23 million, that's $43 million for two guys. They would have re-signed John Buck, kept Lyle Overbay, re-upped Scott Downs, let Jose Bautista go and not traded Shaun Marcum. In five years where would the Jays have been? In that light, I don't think they regret the Halladay trade. He wanted to play in a World Series and he reached the NLCS in his first year with the Phillies and is now part of the greatest four-man rotation of this century. I can't include Joe Blanton.    

Q: Hi Richard,

You and everyone else in the Toronto media is so ecstatic over Vernon Wells departure, but how has no one addressed the fact that they are a worse team in 2011 without him in the lineup and playing centrefield? Who cares if they shed his contract, a) it's not our money, b) Rogers claims they will spend well over $100 million if the team becomes competitive anyways. I think we should have kept him, his contract, his bat, his presence, and the depth he could have provided. Depth is at the heart of every championship team.

Stefan Rentas, Vancouver

A: I'm not so sure that “ecstatic” is the word that I would use to describe the reaction to Wells' departure. It was more a case of being stunned that Anthopoulos was able to move the contract with four years and $86 million remaining. No, you're right, the '11 Jays are not a better team without Wells in centre field, but Wells' ceiling had been reached and people were ducking to get through the doorways. He wasn't the best centre fielder in baseball. He was good. He wasn't the best middle of the order hitter in baseball. He was good. He didn't have the best throwing arm. It was alright. He was a good baserunner. Not the best. He is a good human being and has a social conscience, but so was Mother Teresa and she didn't command $23 million per year. Wells, like Halladay, is another Jays player that had yet to taste the post-season and is happier where he is. Wells is ecstatic. Media is not.

Q: Via Twitter:

So..... would I be crazy saying I'd take the Jays rotation over any other in the AL East?

(@AABurke81) Andy A King

A: Let's see. This is according to the ESPN.com depth charts.

JAYS: Romero, Morrow, Cecil, Drabek, Litsch/Rzepczynski.

YANKEES: Sabathia, Hughes, Burnett, Nova, Mitre.

RED SOX: Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Buchholz, Dice-K.

RAYS: Price, Shields, Davis, Hellickson, Niemann.

O's: Guthrie, Matusz, Duchscherrer, Tillman, Arrieta.

The Jays have an opportunity to stay together for a while and become very good, but right now with Romero being the only 200+ pitcher in the Jays' bunch, I would rank the rotations: Boston, Tampa Bay, Jays, New York, Baltimore. The Jays and Rays are very close. 

Q: Richard,

Do you think the acquisition of speed will significantly help the Jays who struggled last year at the plate? (Hill, Lind). If the Jays raise their OBP and are a legit threat to steal, will this force pitchers to go after hitters more aggressively by throwing strikes? If so, would Hill and Lind be able to capitalize? If those two players had combined for 15 more HRs between them, and Bautista had only hit 20 HRs, the Jays still would have lead the league by a wide margin.

Chris Grasman, Clearview

A: There are players in Jays' major-league camp that can fly on the bases -- Scott Podsednik, Cory Patterson, Rajai Davis, Mike McCoy. Anyone who is a regular reader of the mailbag knows how much I admire speed as a weapon in baseball. Not just stealing-bases-speed, but first to third and second to home speed. Much overlooked is that the Jays stole 170 bases when they won the World Series in 1993. I agree with you that just the threat of the stolen base from your table-setters batting at the top of the order changes the way that pitchers approach your middle-of-the-order RBI guys. That threat was missing last season and in the recent Jays' past. Pitchers could focus totally on pitching to the hitter using his entire repertoire. The key is that the Jays truly need to increase their on-base average.  

Jays mailbag: Why Lawrie needs some seasoning

In 15 months of the tenure of GM Alex Anthopoulos the Jays' farm system has rocketed through the ranks of major league teams according to Baseball America. That bodes well for the future, even if 2011 is likely to be another building year on the Jays' major-league diamond.

According to MLB.com and its own rating of 2011 prospects, among the game's catching futures, J.P. Arencibia ranks sixth; among righthand pitchers, Kyle Drabek ranks third; among second basemen (even though he's likely slated for third), Brett Lawrie ranks second and, finally, among shortstops, Adeiny Hechavarria ranks seventh.

Interesting to note that of those four ranked prospects, three were acquired by Anthopoulos.

In Baseball America's Prospects Handbook, which is an essential purchase for me as soon as it comes out every spring, the Jays' farm system for the five years from 2005-09 out of 30 MLB organizations, ranked 15-25-26-25-19. This year, they have moved into the Top 10, ranked fourth.

On to the mailbag.   

Q. Much has been made of the budgetary implications of the Vernon Wells deal for the Jays. However, the Jays have a lot of draft picks this year, and signing them appears to be a priority for A.A. What is the team's budget for signing its draft picks, and is the team going to use the Wells savings to partially offset the cost of signing its picks? If they plow a ton of money into signing all their picks, then I can tolerate their spending less on the major league club.
John Zingaro,
Caledon

A. At some point the Jays have to stop pleasing fans at AAA-Las Vegas, AA-Manchester, New Hampshire and A-Dunedin and start providing major-league entertainment for fans at the Rogers Centre. According to Anthopoulos, the budget for signing draft picks is always completely separate from the budget for the major-league payroll and the payroll budget is not a number, it's a concept. If that sounds like so much mumbo-jumbo don't blame the mailbag. Sure the Jays have a lot of draft picks and sure they want to sign them all and sure the Wells deal does free up some organization money, so sure it helps the Jays' big picture at all levels, but at some point they have to start doing things to help the big-league club, putting people in the R.C. seats. The thing about the June draft as an annual exercise is that with MLB's recommended slotting of bonuses, even if teams often have to go over slot, the Jays have a pretty good idea of how much the entire draft will cost them even without putting actual names to the drafting numbers. That's money already budgeted for. They must not forget the major league team is what drives the franchise; winning in Toronto is the goal for organizational success. Having a top minor-league system is great. Having a World Series winner is greater.

Q. Hi Richard.  What do you think John Farrell is thinking? The team has traded its opening day pitcher and all star centre fielder from last year.
Frank Corea,
Kamloops

A. Hopefully Farrell is thinking “It's not how you start, it's how you finish.” The Jays never announced it, but it's the common belief that Farrell has a three-year contract with the Jays. Farrell's previous expertise is in pitching and in that regard he has a talented young rotation and a deep veteran bullpen. That helps. It's the rest of it that will test his mettle. It will be an interesting spring with players learning different positions and guys trying to bounce back from off years, but the rookie manager does have an outstanding coaching staff that will help and by the end of the spring training, as the Jays see what they've got, you can ask that question again and it might be a different answer.
An interesting Jays' managerial note is that in 13 seasons since 1998, only Buck Martinez in 2001 and Farrell in 2011 have debuted as Jays managers on their first day of spring training. Jim Fregosi took over from Tim Johnson on St. Patrick's Day 1999. Carlos Tosca took over from Martinez in May of '02. John Gibbons took over from Tosca in July of '04 and Cito Gaston took over from Gibbons in May of 2009. The one common thread from Tosca to Farrell has been coach Brian Butterfield.

Q. Hey Richard. Does Brett Lawrie actually have a shot of making the team this year? I would imagine a lineup with Lawrie at 2B, Hill at 3B and Bautista in right is better than the alternative which would include Juan Rivera in the OF as an everyday player. Has A.A. hinted at anything?
Cornelius T,

Haliburton

A. Lawrie, the Langley, B.C., native, just turned 21 on Jan. 18 and has played just two pro seasons, making the AA Southern League all-star team as a second baseman. He has played his two professional seasons at that 2B position since being drafted 16th overall by the Brewers in 2009. Now the Jays, starting at the recent mini-camp at the Rogers Centre earlier in January, have begun Lawrie's conversion to third base. As a Team Canada amateur player and high school guy, Lawrie was mostly a catcher, but when he was drafted by the Brewers he was listed as 3B/C. They knew something. Ideally the Jays will not need to have Lawrie on the Opening Day roster, although that is his personal goal. At a completely new position and just turned 21, Lawrie needs at least a half-season of third base in the minors. But the bottom line is that the Jays are indeed better off with Bautista in right field. So they need a third baseman. As for the acquired outfielder Rivera, he is not the type of player that fits into the Jays' plans moving forward, 32 years old and under control for just one more year. Therefore, don't dismiss the probability that he and his $5.25 million contact for 2011 will be moved before the season starts. Anthopoulos would not be asking for much in return.

Q. In light of the recent Frank Francisco deal, can you shed some light on who goes where in the Jays bullpen. This acquisition coupled with the signings of Octavio Dotel and Jon Rauch really look like A.A. has no confidence in some of the cheaper, younger Jays (Casey Janssen, David Purcey, Zach Stewart, Shawn Camp, and even Jason Frasor) stepping up and grabbing the ninth inning role.
Jason Sinnarajah,
San Francisco

A. Last season, in theory, it was Kevin Gregg closing, with Scott Downs and Frasor in the eighth, Camp and Purcey in the seventh and Brian Tallet, Janssen and the rest in the earlier roles. Those were simpler times. This year, if I was running the Jays' bullpen, heading to camp, I would have Francisco closing, with Rauch and Purcey in the eighth, Dotel, Camp and Frasor in the seventh and Janssen as my 3 to 6-outs middle-man. The biggest question mark in that group is Frasor, whose role has been diminished at a high price with all of the other bullpen acquisitions. I might look to replace him and his $3-plus million salary with a second lefthander behind Purcey. Zach Stewart will be given another season to develop in the minors and may be the homegrown closer of the future. They have short-term closer options in the meantime, even through 2012.  

Q. Hi Richard. I'm sure you'll have lots of questions or comments about Vernon Wells this week, but I'll add one more, just for fun. I have a sneaking suspicion that Vernon will have an enormous year for the Angels, and that may reflect playing the season on grass rather than turf. My question: How do you think the artificial turf at SkyDome (ok, Rogers Centre) has affected Vernon over the past couple of years, and will it make a difference?
Bryan Willis,
Vancouver

A. I agree that Vernon might have a monster year for the Angels in 2011, but it may have less to do with what's under his feet than what's at his side. Yes the turf at SkyDome (ok, Rogers Centre) was not advantageous to playing a spectacular centre field, but the new artificial surface of the last few years played more like real grass than its predecessor, although it still rewarded caution over all-out outfield effort. But I look at the differences for Vernon on the field and in the stands as what may spur Wells to a big year. There is no need for him to be a leader in this clubhouse, with Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu, Mike Scioscia and others. And, like veteran actor John Turturro, Wells has always done his best work in a supporting role. Plus, in all the times that I have been at Anaheim Stadium, I have never heard the laid-back So-Cal crowd boo a home team player. That will help Wells. I hope he does have a great year, but that should not determine the perceived wisdom of the Jays' trade. The unexpected opening presented itself for the Jays to save $81 million in present and future payroll and they had to take it.

Q. Two Questions:
1. With the Napoli trade how would you handle the catching position for 2011?
2. I thought Chad Jenkins was being groomed for the closer position, am I wrong or have they changed their minds?
Marc Oliver,
Toronto

A. I originally believed last fall that when the Jays traded for Miguel Olivo as a Type B free agent from the Rox and then immediately bought out his option, dangling him to the baseball world for a potential draft choice, the same situation as John Buck, I thought they would wait and see which one signed first and then they would re-sign the other guy to catch alongside J.P. Arencibia, giving them a veteran starter in case the kid fell on his face. But instead they let both men go and are going with Arencibia and the veteran 40-game starter Jose Molina.

That's great for Arencibia -- even better when they got rid of the temptation of using Mike Napoli behind the plate if the rookie struggled. But face it, they have to see what they've got in Arencibia. This guy has played two full seasons at Triple-A and, sure his first year in Vegas was hurt by a stomach disorder and night-vision problems since corrected, but he bounced back to become the PCL Most Valuabe Player. How could you send him back for a third season? Why should Arencibia's opportunity be any less than Matt Wieters in Baltimore, Buster Posey with the Giants, Geovany Soto with the Cubs, Carlos Santana with the Indians, Hank Conger with the Angels, Alex Avila with the Tigers, Jesus Montero with the Yankees and Jonathan Lucroy of the Brewers who are all celebrated more than they have ever been doubted by their organization and fans. The Jays have to give Arencibia more than the month of April to prove himself before they panic. He needs a full shot.
As for Chad Jenkins, I still think the Jays see him as a potential mid-rotation starter or trade bait. I think you may have confused him with Zach Stewart, acquired in the Scott Rolen deal from the Reds and more suited by repertoire for a closing role. That happens to me all the time.     

Q. Griff - what a trade!!
AA is the toast of the town and must be building quite the reputation. While I applaud the move, what is concerning is the potential for a porous defense this year. Is Rajai the answer in CF or is AA going to tinker some more?
Mauro Cavazzon,
Markham

A. I myself was looking to join the AA fan club but when I went online and applied they invited me to a meeting with a bunch of drunks trying to kick the habit. Confusion. So I've pulled back and just become an AA admirer for the moment. As you point out this season has a chance to be a disaster led by the D. Consider: if Arencibia can't do the job and his lack of hitting drags his pitch-calling into the gutter and the young starters take a step backwards; if Adam Lind can't handle the intricacies and footwork at first base and they put Edwin there as the answer; if Lind and Aaron Hill repeat their down seasons; if Yunel Escobar, after his hugely encouraging half-season in Toronto, shows why the Braves got rid of him and sort of stiffs; if Bautista hates third base and his HR total drops into the 20s; if Travis Snider, Rajai Davis and Juan Rivera form the starting outfield and the power alleys become cul-de-sacs; if the sum of the bullpen parts is less than the whole; if John Farrell is only a pitching coach in manager's clothing. Then yikes. AA needs to tinker some more. It could drive me to drink.

Q. Hey Richard,
Is there a lesson to be learned regarding Lawrie's introduction to the Blue Jays from the time past Expos' decision on then prospect Michael Barrett? The Expos had a decision to make with Jose Vidro, keep him at second or move him to third. Barrett would assume the open spot. The Expos kept Vidro at second and sent Barrett to third, where Barrett failed defensively. Would it be safer to play Lawrie at second instead of third?
Marcus Heinrichs,
Stouffville

A. There are plenty of parallels in the example that you offer. With the Expos, Vidro was just 24 in 1999 when the Barrett experiment started and had a couple of really good offensive seasons in a row. Barrett went from backup third baseman to Expos' starting third baseman to starting catcher all in three seasons but then his following career stuttered all the way through the next decade, punctuated by a fight with Carlos Zambrano in Chicago and finally being released by the Jays in 2009.
For the Jays, if it was me, I think I would try to keep Lawrie at second base where he has played for two pro seasons and move Hill to third base where he played when he first reached the majors. However, what I believe may be prompting the decision to move Lawrie is that it's not all about Hill. It's about the long-term of the middle infield and about Adeiny Hechavarria and where he fits in if Yunel Escobar proves at all to be the real deal at shortstop. Hill has either one year, three years or four years left depending on what the Jays want to do with his three option seasons. That will be an interesting and very telling decision that has to be made by opening day.

Q. Is there any truth to the Jays seeking Vlad Guerrero for DH this year? Or even Albert Pujols or Prince Fielder for next season? It is sounding like a Paul Molitor type of signing when the Jays were going for it in the early '90s. Thanks for all your insight.
Phil McCloskey,

Orangeville

A. According to Anthopoulos, the Jays prefer to fill the DH role with a player that can also play a position – like Edwin and first base. If they didn't need another first baseman given the tenuous nature of the Adam Lind experiment, I believe they would have gone after Manny Ramirez, considering that he can still play a little left field. But Edwin, Manny and Andruw Jones all signed one-year $2 million, so the industry is saying there's not much difference among the three. As for the Jays, Vlad is out, Pujols will have the baseball world at his feet and why would he choose Toronto, while Prince, with Scott Boras as his agent, will be looking for A-Rod years and dollars. Jays are out.

Blue Jays mailbag

 

All of Wednesday's Hall of Fame excitement and buzz is winding down. Roberto Alomar and Bert Blyleven are on their way to Cooperstown on July 24, while the blogosphere outrage surrounding who was left out is gradualy subsiding.

It's interesting that two of Robby's career highlights involved fellow Hall-of-Famers. His first hit was off Nolan Ryan and then there's the ALCS Game 4 homer in '92 against Dennis Eckersley.

How long has Blyleven been forced to wait? Consider that when Blyleven was with the Rangers in 1977, his young son used to play on the field before games with a 9-year-old Roberto Alomar, his teammate Sandy's son.

Time to think about next year's ballot. Let the campaigning begin. Consider that the biggest increase in votes this year, other than what was recorded by the two new inductees were Barry Larkin, Tim Raines, Jack Morris and Alan Trammell. Rookie Jeff Bagwell made the biggest impact of the first-time candidates. Consider that five-some the front-runners for next year.

The biggest new name for 2012 will be former Yankees centre fielder, Bernie Williams. From this year's list, Dave Parker will be removed from next year's ballot, his 15 years of eligibility having expired. Also gone, receiving less that 5 per cent of the vote are: Harold Baines, John Franco, Kevin Bfrown, Tino Martinez, Marquis Grissom, Al Leiter, John Olerud, B.J. Surhoff, Bret Boone, Benito Santiago, Carlos Baerga, Lenny Harris, Bobby Higginson, Charles Johnson, Raul Mondesi and Kirk Rueter. Tony LaRussa's attempt to help Mark McGwire's candidacy by returning him to the mainstream, making him the Cards' hitting coach didn't work quite as planned, with Big Mac actually losing votes from previous years. Juan Gonzalez, with 5.2 per cent barely made the cut. On to the mailbag.   

Q: Appreciate your blunt comment on the signing of Octavio Dotel. He and Carlos Villanueva are a couple of journeyman punching bags. How will our precious young starting talent deal with a bullpen that constantly turns seven fine innings into losses in the eighth and ninth? Please tell me AA isn't turning into JPR. No, we've not been promised a contender in 2011, but without Lyle Overbay, John Buck and Shaun Marcum, I doubt we'll see a .500 season barring miracles.
Selby Martin,
Toronto

A: How do the Jays reach 81 wins and a .500 record in 2011 without a side trip to Lourdes? A few things have to occur. 1) If J.P. Arencibia replaces Buck behind the plate and develops into an offensive threat that reflects his development as a hitter the last two years at triple-A , capped by PCL MVP at Vegas. 2) If Adam Lind's move to first base creates a rebound in his hitting to 2009 numbers. I believe that a hitter of his age thrown into the DH role as he was the past two years gave him too much down time between ABs to dwell on failure. The first year was a novelty and an adrenaline rush. Getting back into the defensive scheme allows him to become a baseball player again. 3) If Aaron Hill is more the '09 Hill than the '10 Hill. 4) If Anthopoulos is not yet done recruiting position players and comes up with a viable third baseman so that Bautista can go to right field. 4) If Travis Snider stays healthy and has a breakout year, which he looks poised to do. 5) If Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow emerge as 200-plus inning workhorses and can total 30 wins between them. 6) If Kyle Drabek is the real deal in a fourth starter role. 7) If John Farrell is a better in-game strategist than Cito Gaston and is not as stubborn at leaving players in their spot in the batting order to play their way out of slumps. 8) If the bullpen can mix and match and cobble together some 8th and 9th inning effectivenes in whatever combination works. The Jays are not done adding pieces to the pen. Dotel and Villanueva are certainly not lost causes but there's a reason that Dotel is now with his 11th major-league team in 13 years and that Villanueva was about to be non-tendered by the Brewers when the Jays picked him up.

Q: Hey Richard, I was reading a question in your last blog about Jim Thome. While he obviously can't play much defence anymore, wouldn't he have been good for drawing fans to the stadium, because he is very near to 600 home runs? Also, just a quick question, what exactly happens in a free agent’s physical exam?
Thank you
Nathan Zaltsman,
San Francisco

A: Thome has had a great career and is a future Hall of Famer, as distant as he has been able to keep himself from steroid allegations. But as a full-time DH approaching a home run milestone in the twilight of his career, he would just be another Frank Thomas and the Big Hurt did not add fans to the stands in his drive for 500 homers. Thome is a good guy in the clubhouse and a joy to sit down and talk to. But Anthopoulos has said he wants to get away from a strict DH-only player that has handicapped them in the nine interleague road games. Thome is done as a defender.

The requirement that all transactions – trades or free agent – remain unannounced by clubs until physical exams are completed has a Blue Jays connection. Back on January 14, 2001, the Jays acquired Mike Sirotka from the White Sox in a six-player deal for David Wells. The deal was made in good faith by both sides, but when Sirotka turned up it turned out he had a serious left shoulder problem that he had picked up late in a MLB tour of Japan that he hadn't fully reported to the Sox. GM Gord Ash petitioned for the trade to be rescinded but the decision was made to just fill in more players and Sirotka spent the year on the Jays' DL. It was an embarrassment for the Jays and at the end of the year Ash was fired and replaced by J.P. Ricciardi. Since then, full medical exams are a requirement. It's not just a hands-on, balls-out exam by team doctors. Most teams, including the Jays, have a risk management department that every spring details where each player stands physically. It is filed away. Their history of preexisting conditions can be carefully tracked throughout their careers in 12-month chapters. It's an important aspect of baseball that prevents free agents from coming on board and signing, then announcing an injury requiring surgery that must be paid for by the new club. The Jays' risk management director, Suzanne Joncas was a pioneer in the field when she was with the Expos in the '90s and other teams have since followed suit.

Q: What is the difference between how the Jays are being run and how the Expos were run in the '80s?  Groom prospects for six years then lose them to higher paying organizations.  Fill the gaps with veteran role players on the cheap and hope that all of the young talent can come together for one or two years and challenge for a playoff spot before you lose them to free agency and start over again. Meanwhile attendance drops and drops as fans lose interest and realize that their Jays are nothing more than a glorified farm team for the Yanks, Bosox, Phillies, Dodgers, etc.
David Burns,
London

A: There are huge differences between the Expos of the '80s and the Jays of the '00s. The Expos and their fans knew they were small market and management even positioned themselves as such and relished it, using the Padres as a realistic role model, with a broadcast area restricted by a foreign country to the south and a monster franchise hemming them in. In the case of the Padres, it was Mexico to the south and the Dodgers as the elephant in to room. In the case of the Expos, it was the United States below and the Blue Jays dominating the market. The Expos and their fans thrived on the underdog role. The Jays and their fans resent it when looking to the Red Sox and Yankees.

*Sports fans in Montreal were buoyed and smiling every spring heading into the season by a significant run by the city's hockey team, the Habs. It was feel-good sports feeling carried over into the arrival of summer. The sports fans in Toronto, on the other hand, are dragged down emotionally each spring by the Leafs, carrying the brooding storm clouds of no playoff/no lottery pick into the baseball season.

*The Expos understood they were running a university equivalency program – rookie, sophomore, junior, senior, then diploma and trade. It was a fact of life. John McHale, Jim Fannning, Murray Cook, Dave Dombrowski, Gary Hughes, Dan Duquette and Kevin Malone carried out the plan with no complaints, competing hard year-after-year, on a budget. The difference in Toronto is that fans are more impatient. Eventually ownership says they are willing to spend more money on payroll. The fact is the franchise, based on population, broadcast reach and Rogers' financial resources, is easily capable of competing with the big boys. It's just they have to be given the signal by Anthopoulos and Beeston.

*The fans in Montreal enjoyed themselves more. There is no French-Canadian equivalent of “angst”. As for attendance, the Expos rode the wave of success of the late '70s-early '80s through 1983, then the mortician-like presence of manager Bill Virdon killed the buzz. It was like having Pope Benedict planning your New Year's Eve party. But in the late '80s and early '90s under Buck Rodgers and Felipe Alou, fans started to fill the Stade again...until MLB came in and took over and killed the buzz forever. Expos fans always looked on the bright side. Jays fans are forever marching towards the darkness.            

Q: Hello Richard. Do you know if Edwin Encarnacion started implementing the same hitting approach as Jose Bautista last year? Both showed a significant change to their groundball to flyball ratio (Bautista's being dramatically different). Given Encarnacion's apparent opportunity for regular plate appearances, do you see a breakout 40+hr season for him ala Bautista's 2010?  Also, is Bautista a very good low ball hitter?  One would think pitchers would've just started busting him low or low and outside once it was clear he was intent on hitting the ball in the air every time.
Craig Hirota,
Oakville

A: If by implementing the same hitting approach you mean joining the cult of Murph and Cito, then yes. Gaston always believed that you need to go to the plate with a plan. With a fresh count, look for a certain pitch in a certain location and if you find it, drive it. Until you get to two strikes, you don't go out of your zone. At two strikes you have to expand and it's a whole new story. You're still anticipating and going on the history of the pitcher and more specifically you against the pitcher. Cito is a believer that in any pitch sequence, any at-bat, a pitcher will make a mistake. You have to hit that mistake and if you swing first pitch if it's not your pitch then you're not allowing the pitcher to make that mistake. Gaston always points to A-Rod and the number of times that you'll see him take a fastball right down Broadway for strike three because he was looking for something offspeed. His argument is if it's good enough for A-Rod, it's good enough for E.E. Or J-Bau. As for Bautista being a good lowball hitter, I would suggest that when he is in a good groove, Bautista is a good low strike hitter. It's clearly not the pitch he's looking for early in the count and he won't chase low or low and away if it's out of the zone. 

Q: A question about the HOF rather than the Jays: I read an article about Rafael Palmeiro's chances, in which the writer said he was a four-time all-star. I looked it up, four all-star games, one as a DH. Any idea what the fewest all-star appearances by a HOF is, especially one with those kind of stats? With those career stats, why was he left off the roster so often? Anyone else of his calibre remotely in that situation whom you can recall?
Nick Martin,
Winnipeg

A: Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Wee Willie Keeler...zero all-star games. Of course the all-star game was not invented until Chicago Tribune sports editor Arch Ward suggested it as a one-time event at Comiskey Park in 1933. But yes, Palmeiro's total of four all-star games is low. He was never voted in by the fans because he was mostly an under-the-radar power hitter at a position that was populated by more popular bashers in his era. Palmero hit 95 homers in his first 3,270 at-bats with the Cubs and Rangers, then broke out with real power numbers in 1993, hitting 99 homers in his next 1,587 at bats in Texas over 1993-95. But by that time, in the minds of fan voters, he was a secondary star. For the rest of the '90s, the starting first base job at the ASG went to John Olerud, Frank Thomas, Tino Martinez, Jim Thome and Jason Giambi. Yes, four is a low total for Palmeiro but not a big factor in Hall voting.

Q: Richard,

With the Royals trading Greinke and stocking up with more young talent. Do you think A.A. has approached them on the availabilty of Alex Gordon and one of their young first base prospect Butler, Kila Ka'aihue and Eric Hosmer, with the Jays lacking a true 1st and 3rd base prospect in the minors what would a package of Gordon and one of the 1st base prospects cost the Jays?
Scott Cochrane,
Niagara on the Lake

A: I am pretty sure that Anthopoulos has investigated with the Royals on all the young, talented, controllable players that they have. He does that with every team and takes notes just so that he has a gauge on every team when he talks to them. He also uses that info when trying to bring other teams in for his popular “three-ways”. It's impossible to say what to would take to get any of those players, but it's clear that the Jays' major inventory is in young pitching and that the Royals like young pitching.

Q: I see that the Yankees were hit with an $18 million dollar luxury tax. Is that like NATO dues where the U.S. says yeah, yeah, we owe but they don't pay? Is there a due date on that tax? Where does the luxury tax money go? Does it get shared with the "have not" teams? I wouldn't mind a bit of it myself (good glove, no hit).Thanks Richard.
Ditch Dickinson,
Toronto

A: Do you have your own “small-market” problem as well? Then you qualify. Yes, the Yankees have paid up their taxes and yes the money is distributed to the have-nots. The luxury tax is baseball's equivalent of a salary cap and it's the best formula that MLB has ever been able to get as a concession from the uber-powerful players union. I'm not a big salary cap guy anyway. Rich teams in NBA, NHL and NFL are always trying to cheat the system and I'm not a big fan when the most important employee has to be a cap-ologist. No, give me the classic baseball stretch battle for a division between a team stocked with high-priced free agents vs. a team of homegrowns. David vs. Goliath. Good vs. Evil. Even the Red Sox and Yankees have changed and believe in strong farm systems more than in throwing money across the landscape to build a winner.

Q: Just wondering what you think of the following free agents that can potentially help the Jays and won't cost a great deal. Since Jose Bautista prefers staying at his RF position, why not consider a veteran guy who got some power/versatility like Pedro Feliz? Also, should the Jays give Canadian Jeff Francis a shot? He's not going to cost much right? Lastly, for the Closer role, should they bring back Miguel Batista? He's had decent numbers last season.
Raku Ri,
Vancouver

A: Just in examining the remaining free agent list, I would prefer to remain with Jose Bautista at third base and go with a Rajai Davis, Corey Patterson platoon in the outfield, alongside Vernon Wells and Travis Snider. Ideally, Bautista in right with someone else at third is best, but that may be best achieved in trade and that could be for either a quality second or third baseman. Hill could move to third. Jeff Francis would be a nice signing but there must be a problem with years and guarantees. Lastly, Miguel Batista is not a good choice to close at this point in his career and the Jays moving forward. He's a poet, an author, a flake, simply a literary Dotel. Just stick with Dotel and others.

Blue Jays mailbag

Within the space of a few recent emails in the wake of the surprising Zack Greinke trade to the Brewers, I have been accused of labelling Alex Anthopoulos both a genius and an idiot depending on reader interpretation, while I myself have been called just one of those two.

Let me make it perfectly clear, the answer (for both) lies somewhere inbetween. I am told that I promoted the trade of Greinke to the Jays and suggested it was a distinct possibility when in the wake of the six-player deal between the Brewers and Royals, the strong implication from Greinke was that the Jays were never in the mix. First examine the “no-trade-to-Toronto” clause. I have been around the game long enough that when someone says that a team was on his no-trade list, that can be changed in a heartbeat if that ends up being where he wants to go. But Greinke thought the Brewers were closer to winning which makes sense in the shallow waters of the NL Central. The fact is the Jays had called the Royals prior to the winter meetings and asked about the Cy guy and were told approximately what it would cost in terms of players and prospects. Anthopoulos considered it too much, but still had an eye on the Royals. He treated it like any other team, looking for his opening, any chance the Royals would come down off the “Drabek, Snider and two prospects” stance. To paraphrase re the Greinke trade from Monty Python's “parrot” skit. “It's not dead, it's just sleeping.” It never happened and Melvin's call to Royals GM Dayton Moore ended the suspense. Anthopoulos is always aware when young controllable talent is there. The 27-year-old Greinke is talented and signed for two more years. But the price was not right.

One of the apparently objectionable words that I used in a column after the trade was that A.A. was “schooled” by Brewers GM Doug Melvin. That was taken in some quarters as a huge insult towards the Jays GM. Certainly, as a 34-year-old personnel boss, three months into his second season Anthopoulos acknowledges he does not know it all when it comes to his job. On this occasion, he learned something from Melvin about the art of the deal, about persistence, about building and not being satisfied when your goal is to win and win now. Anthopoulos would admit that he has a lot to learn, but he has said as long as he does not repeat the same mistake twice then he is learning. . . or being schooled. His history is of learning. A.A. learned something when trying to deal Roy Halladay and discovering his options were one, the Phillies. He learned something at the trade deadline in July when he couldn't move any of his relievers though he tried. He learned something from the way the Jeremy Accardo episode turned out, wherein he promised his disgruntled reliever in the off-season things would be different that he would have a chance to earn a job in the bullpen and in the end it was more of the same. He learns something every day. Hey, sports is about dealing with human beings and a constanly changing landscape. If your idea of good journalism is being the first to tweet a rumour then that's good. We're into opinion and analysis here. I learned a long time ago that the best way not to fall out of a tree is to never go out on a limb. Even I can admit we're all still learning. On to the mailbag.  

Q: I read your article about the Jay's pursuit of Zack Greinke and about how Jay's GM A.A. is a genius by acquiring Brett Lawrie and taking the Brewers out of the Greinke equation. It would have been a good article had you not been dead wrong. As I'm sure you've learned by now, the Shaun Marcum acquisition was a primary factory in Greinke waiving his no-trade clause in a deal with Milwaukee. Looks like A.A. isn't such a "genius" after all. You owe a big apology to all the Jays fans for lack of good observation.
Best regards,
NWilding

A: Good start. The Brewers have clearly decided to go for it in 2011 in the very winnable NL Central. So the follow-up effect of the Marcum trade with the Jays on Milwaukee — rather than ending their search, rather than filling their needs, satisfying their desire for a top-of-the-rotation starter, instead of ending all those things, the Marcum trade led to the next dramatic Brewers move, the acquisition of Greinke. The Brewers used four more of their minor-league inventory of top prospects to pry the Cy guy away from the Royals. In those two key trades for starting pitchers, the Brewers dealt four of their top nine and five of their top 21 prospects according to Baseball America's 2010 rankings. The follow-up trade after Marcum with the Royals came out of the blue off a Melvin phone call. It was initiated and consummated quickly all within the first few days after Greinke changed agents and it became known that he really, really wanted out -- and not only that he wanted to go to a contender. Royals trade talks with the Brewers had been dormant, just as they were with the Jays after GM Alex Anthopoulos's  only call prior to the winter meetings. However a second call from Brewers GM Doug Melvin to his Royals counterpart Dayton Moore, got the ball rolling again. So why not the Jays? It wasn't the no-trade it was the nolo contendo. All no-trade clauses can be worked out as happened with Milwaukee. But the Jays' public strategy has been to downplay their ability to contend in 2011 and just let it flow instead of making promises to fans that they end up not being able to keep. Players can read (uh, most of them). The Jays stance: if contending in 2011 happens, it happens and, make no mistake, they are potentially talented enough to contend for a wild-card led by their young starting pitching and with two other teams the Yankees and Rays struggling in the offseason, it might happen. But there are no promises. However that was not the type of up-front attitude to attract Greinke. That and the fact that the Jays are in tough in the AL East with the Red Sox and Yankees. As for the column in question that suggested A.A. had a solid strategy of eliminating the Brewers from the Greinke hunt, nobody is more prepared going into trade talks than Anthopoulos. He knows what other teams need before any discussion. He knows what they have to offer and he knows what third teams can become involved if he brings them in. But there is the human factor to consider in all of sports and the only thing that is predictable is the unpredictable. Lawrie was a player of interest to the Royals as well as the Jays. Anthopoulos took him off the table as a potential chip. Even the best chess players lose occasionally. The unexpected is what makes baseball's off-season the greatest and most discussed in pro sports. 

Q. Richard:
If regards to the Brewers acquisition of Zack Greinke, if you had to affix comparable Blue Jay players names to the prospects given up by Milwaukee, who would they be?
Thanks,
Paul, Guelph

A. To jump-start any serious conversation with the Royals would have taken Kyle Drabek, Travis Snider then two more top prospects, likely catcher J.P. Arencibia and a top minor-league starting pitcher. GM Anthopoulos was not willing to part with this package for two guaranteed years of Greinke, so the conversation never got off the ground, although interest from the Jays was not dead. 

Q. Hi Richard,I love to read your blog and articles. So much knowledge in baseball. I am wonder why the Jays signed EE for 1B/DH instead of a more power hitter and mentor type of veteran like Jim Thome. I think he fits well as a DH and backup for Adam Lind. Also, do you think the Jays will move AA to 3B and bring in a 2B? what's available in the farm system other than the newly acquired Brett Lawrie.
Thanks,
Oliver Chiu, Markham

A. Edwin Encarnacion's problem has never been in catching ground balls. It's after that. His problem has been in throwing the ball consistenly across the diamond. He would make a great play on the third-base line one inning and then short-arm a routine grounder the next, bouncing it for an error or sailing a throw past the first baseman with a rising fastball. With Lyle Overbay gone and Adam Lind still learning the position, the Jays could not bring Encarnacion back as a third baseman without endangering fans in the box seats. But after deciding on Lind as first option at first base, the Jays decided to look for a righthanded hitting complement to Lind that would be a DH first and a first baseman second. That combo of skills left Manny Ramirez out, since he is strictly a LF/DH.
Jim Thome is a wonderful human being and a potential Hall-of-Famer, but he is physically done as a first baseman, especially if he had to play more than half his games on artificial turf. Anthopoulos is now stressing flexibility with the DH position. Part of the reasoning is the nine road games in inter-league play where if your DH can't play a position he is simply a pinch-hitter. That's a terrible disadvantage. As for third base, I assume you mean Aaron Hill to third. Other than Lawrie, who at 20 is still likely a year away from the majors, the Jays have Adeiny Hechavarria also still a year away. It would have taken the acquisition of a free agent starting second baseman to move Hill over to third. 

Q. Mr. Griffin
Should Jays fans start being concerned that AA hasn't replaced any of the relievers that have left, especially at closer? I thought any combination of Bobby Jenks, Dan Wheeler, Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier or Grant Balfour would have signed.
DeShaun Kozak, Uxbridge, ON

A. I am surprised, along with you, that with the entirely predictable contracts for quality relievers and with the Jays' closer role wide open, that they were not able to come to terms with guys like Crain or Wheeler. There are still some free agent relievers out there that may come at bargain prices in the new year. With former pitching coach John Farrell as manager, with Bruce Walton and a slew of pro scouts on board, one would hope the Jays know what they're doing in the bullpen. Maybe not. As of now, Jason Frasor and Shawn Camp would have the best chance to close. They need more.  

Q. I was wondering why the Jays decided to bring back Edward Encarnacion, and why it is they are looking to use him as part of a first-base platoon? Why not instead plug him in as the everyday DH and let Adam Lind learn how to field the position, considering, as it is has been said, the Jays don't look to be contenders in 2011 anyway. I would also like to know, based on 2011 being somewhat of another write-off season for the team, why it was that Lyle Overbay wasn't retained? Was it because of contractual reasons? It seems to me that in keeping Overbay for at least one more year (until the much-talked-about 2012 dawn-of-a-new-era that Jays fans are awaiting with anticipation) the Jays would not only have temporarily solved their first-base problem, but wouldn't have needed to re-sign E.E. (not the greatest of fielders), and if you're going to platoon Adam Lind for his first year as a first-baseman anyway, why not do so under the tutelage of Lyle Overbay? Wouldn't Lind ! and Overbay have made a better 1B/DH platoon for 2011? That would also have meant one more left-handed bat in the line-up, which as it stands now is lopsided with mostly right-handed hitters.
Darrell Holtze, Guelph

A. Lind will likely be the everyday 1B and Encarnacion will be the DH, but both men will work out pre-game every day at first, taking grounders and making feeds. When Lind needs a day off or is banged up, or if they determine he can't play the position well enough, or if it's a tough starting lefthander, then Encarnacion will play the position. If Encarnacion was a lefthanded hitter, the Jays would likely have gone in another direction.
As for Overbay, in order to move forward, the Jays could not return the same veteran players and then all of a sudden declare themselves contenders a year later in 2012. The contract was never an issue with Overbay, although I am surprised all he was able to sign for was one year $5 million with the Pirates. But there were a lot of free agent first basemen on the market. Lind is not going to platoon at first base, especially if he improves defensively during the spring. Encarnacion will be the primary DH as of now. The Jays do need one more lefthanded bat for balance, with just Lind and Travis Snider right now.

Q. When the Jays are ready to compete for a title in 2012 (probably 2013), one thing I think we worry about is having a true #1 starter. Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow are fine starters - but probably project more into a #2 type for a championship caliber team. Drabek has great stuff but he probably fits in the same mold.  Now that Greinke is off the market, what top of the line starters are likely available in free agency in 2012 and beyond? (Assuming they don't get locked up over the next few seasons).
R S, Toronto

A. Every No. 1 starter had to begin his career further down the pecking order in his team's rotation. The guy with the best chance at becoming a No. 1 for the Jays at the moment is Morrow. He has the best stuff on the staff and if he would show the same bulldog peronality on the mound as Romero and Shaun Marcum, then he would be the man. Anthopoulos said at the winter meetings that his goal for the Jays is to have five No. 3's or better in the rotation. The list of potential free agent starters following the 2011 season is slim, including Mark Buehrle, Gil Meche, Wandy Rodriguez, Edwin Jackson and C.J. Wilson. Not a great list. Starters are a valued commodity, especially after the Giants' World Series win.

Q. Hi Richard,
First off, I just need to re-iterate what has been said many times before: Your blog is entertaining and insightful, and I definitely appreciate the effort you put into it. I've got a few questions for you, hope you're game.  (If I'm rehashing old ground on these questions, I apologize).
First question: Now that Alex A. is no longer the 'new kid on the block' in GM circles, could it be a little more difficult for him to make deals?  He's made some pretty astute deals (getting Yunel and Gose come to mind), and I'm just wondering if opposing GMs may have developed a sense of "wait a minute.... what's he up to?" when talking to Alex.
Second question: While I agree with AA's big picture strategy which may result in a slight step down in the wins column next season, I'm still a little perturbed by the fact that Marcum's gone with no tangible replacement. And now that Greinke's gone to join Marcum on the Brewers (and not replace him in TO) I'm even more distressed. It seems that one obstacle to acquiring Greinke may have been that TO was on his no-trade list. At this point my Canadian inferiority complex kicks in... why would you NOT want to come to TO as a baseball player?  Is there some kinda hidden bad rep? Is it a lack of recent success?  Is it the taxes? Is it the unparalleled diversity, relative harmony, gun control and free healthcare?
Thanks for your time,
Hope you and yours have a good holiday!
Daryl Humes, Seattle

A. First Answer: Yes, I do believe that opposing GMs have changed their attitude from a year ago when dealing with Anthopoulos. It started with the way he handled the Halladay negotiations, ending up with a nice package of prospects when the Phillies were basically his only landing strip. He keeps his dealings and discussions behind closed doors and insists that his trading partners do the same. When he enters a room he knows not only what you want from him, but what other major-league teams have to offer you in that same category. If he has a specific player that he covets but does not have a proper fit in terms of a trade, he is constantly looking for a third team become involved in order to satisfy all sides. In his second year, veteran opposing GMs no longer pat him on the head like a kid, they pat their back pocket to see if he's stolen their wallet. The first noticeable change in the way other GMs dealt with the 34-year-old Jays' boss was at the July trade deadline. He believed he could move one or more of his relievers, but could not get a deal done. My belief is that other GMs were steering clear of him because of the intensity with which he approaches the job. Hey, nobody does three-ways in July.
Second Answer: The Jays have lost from an 85-win team in 2010 their first baseman, catcher, third baseman, opening day starter, the closer and primary setup man. Can they repeat 85 wins? That's a good question and one that will be answered only if Lind and Aaron Hill bounce back, if Jose Bautista and Wells can repeat, if Snider breaks out and if Romero, Morrow and Cecil can take the next step in terms of starts and innings pitched. Then there's the open closer's role. As for Marcum being traded, nowhere in the organization are the Jays' deeper than at starting pitcher. Nowhere are they more shallow than in the infield. The Marcum deal cannot be properly evaluated until Lawrie's potential is reached. The Langley, B.C. native is still only 20 years old and even though he believes he's ready for the majors, will probably start at AAA-Las Vegas. As for why Toronto is still a tough sell to free agents, the former GM from 2002-09 was not exactly a candidate for the T-O chamber of commerce. Hello Adam Dunn. The ignorance of today's young American players in using taxes, weather and the annoyance of clearing customs as excuses can be overcome by winning and treating players right.

Q. Hey Richard,
Throughout this winter friends of mine have come to question some of AA's moves and decisions. I drank the AA koolaid long ago and said to them I fully trust him and feel he knows what he's doing. I still believe this but the first non move has me at least questioning what's going on. To me Orlando Hudson would have been a great signing. Yes his offensive numbers have declined three straight years but his defense is still top notch and he is still liked by Toronto fans. What is your take on this? What left handed third basemen or second basemen are out there?  and Finally, any chance Man Ram signs with us?
Marc Oliver, Toronto

A. I'm with you. I would have signed Hudson for two years this winter in  a heartbeat. It would be short-term for a reasonable amount. Instead he tiook the same offer from the Padres. The guy, since he left Toronto, has been to the post-season the last two years with the Dodgers and Twins. That would have meant moving Aaron Hill to third which is where I think he's going to end up anyway. And this is the year for making those switches. Hudson is loud and opinionated, but his teammates love him. In Minnesota on the final weekend, Wells was laughing to a group of writers on Sunday morning talking about an attempted steal where the ball arrived at second even before VW began his slide. All he could hear as he was still running was O-Dog chirping about how out he actually was. Thern the tag. That's O-Dog. It's a personality the Jays have missed. As for any lefty swinging alternatives at second or third, you've got guys like Alex Cora, Adam Kennedy, Felipe Lopez, Willy Aybar and Aaron Miles. Give me Orlando Hudson. As for Manny Ramirez, I believe that window closed when Encarnacion re-upped at a much cheaper rate ($2.5M with an option for $3.5M) with an altered job description of DH/1B.       

Q. I agree with last week's suggestion that the Rogers Skydome is in need of some improvement. Stadiums are a big part of the baseball experience, I actually make a point to see at least one new MLB ballpark every year. The Blue Jays home is pretty limited to change since it is primarily an entertainment center sharing duties with football games, concerts, monster truck rallies, Dalai Lama visits etc... But I have a couple of suggestions.
1) Lower the fences. I know it is already a hitters park, but seeing some home runs robbed would be incredibly exciting. Since the fences are removable, that would probably make it an easier job.
2) Get rid of the empty outfield restaurant. I go to 25+ games a year and never see it open more that twice. Open it up, replace it with some greenery, get some plant life in the park so it's not so sterile. There needs to be statues! Get an artist to do a series of statues for the guys on the level of excellence, at least that's a starting point. Memorabilia, plaques, 30+ years is enough time to begin celebrating our franchise history and start our own Monument Park. Can you see Rogers and the Blue Jays making changes along these lines? Ultimately I'd like to see a new baseball exclusive stadium with real grass, when do you think those talks start, seven years from now?
Diego Bergia, Toronto

A. Did you suggest a Monster Truck rally with the Dalai Lama? It has potential. I believe the folks that make the decisions at the Skydome should take a month during the summer and visit all 29 other major-league ballparks and take notes. Ther eyes would be opened. The best in-stadium scoreboard and information is the Diamondbacks. The worst is the Jays. The best concessions and food is the Giants. The worst is the Jays. The best centre field landscaping is the Angels. The worst is the Jays.
Following up on your suggestions, the problem with lowering the fences all the way around is that with the Jays' artificial turf, even though this surface plays more like real grass than the old turf, you would get balls up the alley bouncing out for ground-rule doubles, the least exciting play in baseball, when the triple is the most exciting. There is a solution. They could lower the fences from each foul line to the end of the bullpen from 12 feet to eight feet because balls hit down the line are mostly doubles anyway with runners mostly just advancing two bases. Now, you could have a high fly ball hit down the line and the left fielder drifts over and times his leap pulling a home run back into play for an out. That would not affect the triples total but would create what you suggest some highlight outfield play.
As for Part 2 of the question, yes, hanging gardens, statues and fountains instead of an empty restaurant. I love it. As it is now the RC is very sterile and unappealing as a baseball venue. I would also put in the all dirt infield instead of just the sliding pits. A Monument Park for great moments and great players in Jays history is good but it would be too inaccessible in the hotel backdrop. You'd have to add a statue of the first couple making out in an open hotel window. Maybe it could be in the back of the Jays' bullen with tours every afternoon when the gates open. And, that reminds me, how about telling ushers to lighten up when it comes to fans switching sections in the late innings of a blowout.   
New facility? Since the Jays own the whole thing, I can see them making major renovations inside before they ever think about building a new retro stadium. There is no taxpayer money to be had in this day and age unless, of course, you named the new place Ford Field, but I believe that's already taken.    

Q. Hey Griff!
My buddy and I are thinking of heading down to Cooperstown in July for the induction of Gillick, Alomar, Van Horne. Do you have any tips for where to stay and tickets for that weekend? I've been down there a few times, but never for a big weekend like this, and info on the HOF website is scarce.
Thanks!
Stuart Stark, Toronto

A. If Robby gets in on January 6, this would be a great year to make the trek. Pretty much both of the main Cooperstown hotels are booked by now, so any hotel would be in Utica or one of the neighbouring boroughs about an hour away. Still worth it. E-mail Brad Horn, the director of information at the hall and he will let you know about ticket details for the events and a description of the access on induction day.  

Q. Hi Richard.
I really enjoy your column, especially since I'm an expatriate with only online media as a resource to stay informed on the Jays. One of your readers asked about any improvements planned for Skydome. Following up on this theme, do you know anything about how the concessions are awarded at the stadium? I have been really disappointed with the lack of variety available in my recent visits. One of the great things about AT&T Park in San Francisco, aside from the breathtaking views and 2010 World Series trophy, is the diversity of food vendors. Many of them offer unique items with a regional flavor. (Somewhere in the back of my mind I hear George Bell saying that 'Toronto fans just go to the game to eat'.) Still, a tired slice of pizza that I could buy a few blocks from the stadium for half the price adds little to the fan experience.
Dave Sorokowsky, California

A. We were just discussing this issue a few questions above. The concessions need to be updated, no doubt. It's not as if there is no diversity in Toronto from which to draw. Here's an idea. Imagine if two years from now when the Jays are contending that every 100 metres along the main concourse at field level there was a unique food concession from a different culture around the city, resulting from open bidding for restaurants in each ethnic neighbourhood, supplying their own chefs and menus for the 81 home games. The way to a fan's heart is through his stomach. That would be a start to making the baseball crowd more reflective of the city's diverse population than it is right now. Hopefully the Italian food stand would not include that tired old pizza.

Until the new year, happy holidays.

Blue Jays mail bag

With many of the big boys coming off the free agent market, led by Cliff Lee's jumping back to the Phillies and Carl Crawford to the Red Sox, some of the familiar Jays' names are suddenly making appearances in rumours and transactions. You've got first baseman Lyle Overbay signing a one-year deal with the Pirates for $5 million. He made $7 million in his final year with the Jays and if the Jays had indeed offered him arbitration at the deadline, he might have been advised to actually accept the offer and may have been back for another season for a raise. The Jays decided they were moving forward and Lind will get a full opportunity. Also in the news, Kevin Gregg and Jeremy Accardo are reported to be close to signing wth the O's. Gregg is also of interest to the Red Sox. A total of 84 free agents out of 255 have found new homes as of Wednesday morning. Only 13 of those are for longer than two years. There are bargains to be had for teams willing to take a chance. On to the mail bag.

 

Q-Hey Richard,

With the Bronx Bombers falling short in the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, what other course of actions will they follow in order to make a splash this off season? Do you think they will now try trading for either Zack Greinke or Matt Garza to bolster their rotation?

-Matthew Lee, Leaside, Toronto

 

A-So far the Yankee reaction has been slow as they struggle up from the canvas to take what amounts to a standing eight-count, but expect them to heat up into a near-froth as they realize how far behind the Red Sox they have fallen in the battle for Evil Empire supremacy and one-upmanship. On Monday, they thought they had Cliff Lee with the extra guaranteed year and the highest guaranteed offer. On Tuesday he was gone and they instead had agreed to terms with Mark Prior. The former Cubs star is trying to re-establish his career. The hot spotlight of Broadway is not always the best place to get that done, although Prior's running mate with the Cubs, Kerry Wood did it out of the Yankee bullpen.

The Yankees definitely need to do something big in terms of starting rotation. They cannot compete against the Sox, Jays and Rays with CC Sabathia, Phil Hughes, A.J. (I'm taking my talents to the South Bronx) Burnett, Ivan Nova and Prior or Sergio Mitre. Their best chance to compete is to trade for Greinke, but do they have enough in terms of prospects to satisfy the Royals' needs? The other thing they may try to do right away is to call Andy Pettitte and ask him to come back for one more year. The Rangers have also expressed an interest in Pettitte and that would be delicious if Nolan Ryan signed the Texan away from the Bombers. As for Garza, would the Rays trade him within the division? Their fans might not show up. Oh, wait, they already don't show up. The best free agent starter available, other than the undecided Pettitte is Carl Pavano and the Yankees have been down that road before.

 

Q-I'm curious as to why the Blue Jays are leaning towards having Drabek start the season in the big leagues. While we all agree he has great potential, putting him on the roster on Opening Day qualifies him for Super Two status two years from now. Instead bringing him up in June (like that Nationals did with their phenom starting pitcher), the Jays would save a significant chunk of cash down the line.  If we all agree that the Jays will contend in 2012 and beyond, I'm really curious as to why AA and the new manager have been quick to throw his name into discussions for the starting roster. 

-Joe Sacti, Toronto

 

A-Having Drabek play the entire season with the Jays will not qualify him for Super Two status two years from now. It qualifies him for free-agent status six years from now and that's only if he remains on the major-league roster from now through the end of 2016. That would be an organization thinking far too deeply if that's going to be a reason not to have a guy in the opening day rotation. Super Two is a category of arbitration eligible players that includes a low percentage of players each years that have two years plus the highest number of days in the majors among all players. For those players that are called up and sent down over the course of several years, a total of 172 days service equals a full year.

In Drabek's case, it's getting to the point where it does not mater as much about super two, because in a player's second year of arbitration, if he figures prominently in an organization's future, they buy him out of the final couple of years of arbitration and lock him up with a long-term deal. If Drabek rates that sort of consideration, the fact that he spent the entire 2011 season in the majors will become academic. As for why they throw his name in the 2011 discussion, he's good.

 

 

Q-The acquisition of Brett Lawrie had me thinking about Aaron Hill's situation. What do you think the odds are that the Jays don't pick up his $8M and $10 club options in 2012 through 2014.  Hill definitely has some pop in his bat but one could question whether you're better off getting another 2B or 3B free agent for the same (or less money)... similar to the decision AA made with Kevin Gregg.  For Hill specifically when do the Jays need to make the call on picking up his club options?

-Harry Jackson, Toronto

 

A-The Jays need to make the call on Hill's three option years (2012-14) not until the eve of Opening Day 2011, although they will likely decide during spring training. The Hill contract was one of Anthopoulos's early innovations as assistant GM to J.P. Ricciardi. The Rays used it as a model when they locked up Evan Longoria less than a year later. If the Jays decide to pick up the Hill options before next season it will include all three years at $8, $8 and $10 million. If they do not pick all three up they can declare after 2011 for just 2012-13. Or, in the end, they can decline all three options and Hill is a free agent after 2011. The safer of two courses of action would be for the Jays to wait until Hill rebounds offensively in 2011 before deciding on two option years through 2013. The flip side of that argument is that Anthopoulos said early in his GM career that there is an upside to having a player locked up to a long-term deal even if your plan is to eventually trade him. If Hill is the Hill of 2009, then the three option years are a bargain. A.A. likely has a soft spot in his heart for this contract.   

 

 

Q-Given the large contracts given to Carl Crawford and Jayson Werth, how do you think this changes AA's thinking on Jose Bautista?  The Jays are in a bit of a catch-22.  If Bautista replicates his 2010 season through 2011, the asking price only goes up. 

-R.S., Toronto

 

A-You're right about the financial danger of allowing Bautista to have another 50-home run season heading into free agency and what that would do to his market value...but don't you think the Jays would love to have that problem. Put it this way, if Bautista has slammed 15 homers by the end of May 2011, they would make every effort to lock him up to a long-term contract looking for some sort of hometown discount perhaps because of the break they gave him in establishing his career. If not, if that strategy doesn't work, if they realized that he was going to go through the free-agent process and see what he was Werth, then they could attempt to trade him before the deadline in July and get back prospects. There is also a huge danger in giving Bautista free-agent star money after just one great season at the age of 30. The organization is still smarting over the Vernon deal. The most intelligent course of action was descibed above – to pay very close attention to Bautista during the spring and in the first two months and then try to lock him up if he proves to be who he says he is.

 

 

Q-Richard, I have long admired Tony La Russa's approach to the catching position. This is a position where defense is critical. He once said that he would start Yadier Molina even if he batted .100. Bearing this in mind and with a young pitching staff on board, wouldn't the Jays best approach be with an established veteran who can best manage a game? If Arencibia is known to be a defensive liability and we have holes at both 1st and 3rd, wouldn't a switch seem logical? Jose Molina seemed to bring out the best in our pitchers last year. He with another veteran seems like a winning combination.

Mauro Cavazzon, Markham

 

A-LaRussa's approach to catchers is shaped largely by his relationship with long-time pitching coach Dave Duncan who himself was a strong defensive catcher with crappy offensive numbers. Duncan spent 11 years in the majors with a .214 career average, 109 homers and a .636 OPS. He threw out 32-percent of runners attempting to steal and was noted foir his cerebral ways behind the plate winning a World Series with the 1972 A's. As for the Jays and J.P. Arencibia, his off-season grip on the No. 1 catcher's job is tenuous at best, having dodged more off-season bullets than Keanu Reevs in The Matrix. But as long as the Jays have just J.P. and Jose Molina on the roster, then Arencibia's the one. But they already flirted with John Buck and Miguel Olivo and made a pass at Rusell Martin, who apparently has chosen the Yankees. The Jays young rotation needed a veteran presence behind the plate the past two seasons, but they are now themselves young veterans getting to the point where they actually know what they're doing on the mound and can help Arencibia get by. For the Jays' young slugger, it's not that he's bad defensively, it's that he needs to understand that the ability to steer a pitcher through a nine-inning minefield is his most important role. It's not a lost cause. They need to find out about him and they won't do that by signing another veteran and sending J.P. back to Vegas.  

 

Q-Hi Richard,

Despite the cold weather and terrible roads, this past weekend a buddy and me took the pilgrimage to the Baseball Hall Of Fame in Cooperstown New York. It is about a 5 hour drive from Toronto, but a must for any baseball fan. In my view Roberto Alomar is a lock for the hall of fame and a lock to don a Blue Jays cap on his head.  Are there any other Blue Jays with Hall of Fame credentials? What about Joe Carter? How about Roy Halladay?

Thanks.

-Josh Sanderson, Toronto

 

A-The Hall-of-Fame is a wonderful place for the true baseball fan. Nice decision by you guys to make that trip. Joe Carter's celebrity and reputation stem more from that one “touch-'em-all” moment than from his body of work, which as impressive as those numbers are, always seemed to be in a supporting role with whatever team he was with. Joe did not get the 5-percent reuqired to remain on the ballot for a second year. I was surprised. Joe was stunned. Robby should be a mortal lock when the announcement is made on January 5. When he goes in it will surely be with the Jays' cap. It's a Hall decision with input from the honouree. As for possible Jays' hall-of-famers, there's an eventual chance for Fred McGriff and Jack Morris. Carlos Delgado needs to come back and hit a few more homers and reach the post-season. Roy Halladay is headed in the right direction, with all the necessities for greatness. What a great summer to drive to Cooperstown July 23-25 with Jays' GM Pat Gillick and Expos' broadcaster Dave Van Horne already going in and with Alomar likely.     

 

Q-Richard,

I'm a big fan of your column and fan of the Jays.  I like the direction that AA is taking the team with young arms and identified young talent. Can you give me a breakdown of who YOU think are the Jays top 5 prospects?  Where does Brett Lawrie fit into that mix? Last question - with these young players "done" their college and minor league seasons, what do these young prospects do to improve their skills?  Do all young players play in some kind of winter league?  Is there such a thing as too much baseball? I know, lots of questions.

-Jason Kerr, Saskatoon

 

A-I am always shocked that many of today's hot young prospects turn down the chance to play Caribbean Winter Ball, preferring to take time off and then begin workouts in January. My guess it's all about the big signing bonuses that take away the hunger of playing winter ball as a second job. As for when it's too much, I know that there can be too much baseball for some of the Latin American pitchers that have key roles with their home town team, come to spring training trying to win a job with the major-league team and then log a ful season in the majors. It eventually catches up with them.

That's an interesting question regarding Top 5 Jays prospects. There are plenty of sources for farm information including the essential Baseball America Prospect Handbook with the Top 30 prospects from every organization listed and explained. My own personal listing is slanted by my personal preferences of certain skills. For this exercise I will only consider players born in 1986 or later, guys that were born the year after the Jays earned their first division title in 1985. That would make them 25 or younger playing in 2011. In no particular order, here are my five favourite Jays farmhands:

1-Deck McGuire RHP: The 21-year-old was selected 11th overall in 2010. He's like '09 first round pick Chad Jenkins, only better. Deck will try to bring Georgia Tech products back into favour in Toronto after the vitriolic departure of Chris Bosh. Likely he will start at A-Lansing or A-Dunedin.

2-Anthony Gose OF: The 20-year-old former Phillies prospect obtained from the Astros for Brett Wallace has some exciting skills. What jumps out as head-scratchers are his two year totals of 52 caught stealings and 13 errors in centre field, but that shows basically what kind of a prospect he is if he's allowed to reach those numbers. It's not easy being thrown out that many times. As a high school pitcher he threw 97 m.p.h. but gave that up. In the last two years he has 29 outfield assists. Needs another 1000 minor-league at-bats at least, but is getting stronger. Look out Vernon.

3-Brett Lawrie: Okay, so the 20-year-old B.C. native likes to duct-tape huge alcoholic beverages to his left hand while flexing for his Facebook friends. There are worse things. Plus, he's Canadian. If Facebook existed back in the day, Larry Walker would have had exactly the same problems. In fact, Walker also as a 20-year old was trying to find a position and eventually became a tremendous, instinctive outfielder. Lawrie at 20 played second base at Double-A and was an all-star.

4-J.P. Arencibia C: This is Arencibia's last chance with the Jays. He cannot possibly be sent back to Las Vegas for a third year after winning PCL MVP honours in 2010. Either they think he can start every day or they should trade him to a team that will give him that chance. There are plenty of catchers that started out as offence-first guys that developed humility and leadership skills.  

5-Adeiny Hechavarria SS: The 21-year-old Cuban defector was the first high-profile international free agent signed by the Jays proving they were play-ahs. Completely adjusting to a different culture, he did better in the backwoods of New Hampshire at Double-A than in the Latin-tinged Tampa Bay area at A-Dunedin. His manager, Luis Rivera, a big help in New Hampshire is now a coach with the Jays. Hechavarria has some extra base power, decent speed and quickness, but needs a little more time.   

 

Q-Richard:

As I see it, the 2010 Blue Jays were 10 games shy of competing with a more or less solid team whose closer blew 9 saves and whose manager's wait-and-see approach cost them another 10. We've got a new manager -- one who's committed to firing on more than one cylinder.  And we've added some speed.  Why not sign a first-rate closer, stop all this trading/building ballyhoo, and aim to win in 2011? I understand the need to build for the future. I do. But it's not like the 2010 crew were a bunch of senior citizens.  My fear, after moving Halladay, now Marcum, after losing Downs, losing Overbay's sure-hands at first, maybe getting greedy with Bautista, is that the Jays will get stuck in a one-step-forward, three-steps back approach to building that will never pay off. Your thoughts?  In always looking ahead, do the the Jays overlook what's worked in the past?

-Matthew McKean, Ottawa

 

A-That's a pretty harsh view of Cito Gaston. I think there is a balance to his perceived strategic shortcomings compared to his solid “have a plan” advice to his hitters, his patience with guys like Romero and Morrow and the “this is your clubhouse” approach with his roster. It adds up to far fewer than 10 losses. I agree that the Jays may be a better team in 2011 but win fewer games, but it won't be because they did not re-sign Gregg or replace him with a proven closer. They still will sign one more veteran arm for the pen to compete with existing guys, led by Jason Frasor, for saves. I believe the advancement in terms of record will depend more on the bouncebacks of Hill and Adam Lind and the emergence of Snider. Of course Bautista and Wells will have to be forces again and they need to acquire another hitter at DH or third base. Closer is not the answer for 2011 to be considered a success.    

 

Q-Richard:

When teams sign free agents to long-term contracts that will run well into their decline years, why don't they front-load the contract so the largest annual salary is paid when the player is younger and his performance is likely at its peak? Arranging the contract in this way would also make the player more tradable in his decline years. This may make it more difficult for the team to add additional pieces in the short-term to make a run, but it would allow teams to avoid Soriano/Wells-type situations in the long-term. What am I missing?

Thanks!

-James McMahon, Thunder Bay

 

A-Many times, teams will in effect front-end load contracts by paying out big signing bonuses that can be amortized over the length of the contract but go directly into the pocket of the player in the first few years. The problem with front-end loading is that teams already have a large chunk of payroll committed when they sign a player long-term and that may make the total payroll untenable for ownership. By back-end loading, they can plan ahead for the supporting cast when they know they are going to be paying the most to their star player. No matter how much the declining year's salary is, players are always tradeable if you are willing to pay a large portion of the remaining annual salary.  

 

Q-Hey Richard.

I'm curious as to why GM's trade players who are already drafted instead of trading picks, such as the NBA. Am I missing something or is there a rule in the MLB that you cannot trade picks but rather players who are drafted with that pick.

Thanks.

-Nilesh Panchal, Pickering

 

A-Baseball teams are not allowed to trade their draft picks and that's probably a good thing. There are 50 rounds in baseball and there are some shrewd GMs with deep farm systems that would be trading veterans for draft picks and developed minor-leaguers for more draft picks ending up with dozens of picks in the first five rounds and on the other hand there are some organizations that would cut down their scouting and just use draft picks as inventory. Former Jays' GM Gord Ash is one that has been in favour of trading draft picks, but they would have to restrict it to first three rounds or something reasonable that would prevent the draft becoming a travesty. 

 

Q-Are there any plans to revamp parts of SkyDome (I will not call it Rogers Centre) for the upcoming season? The on-field product is ultimately the most important enticement to coming out to the ballpark, but further enhancements to the Dome would certainly seem to improve the fan experience. Is there a long-term plan for the stadium, or does ownership operate on a year-to-year basis?

-James Riswick, Mississauga

 

A-They own the place, so they should be able to make needed adjustments on the fly. How about some specifics for next week's mailbag. I think they plan on adding an octagon at some point before next April. For the media, the wireless in the press box needs improvement which is ironic since Rogers is the biggest wireless provider in Canada. But nobody else cares about that. I'm with you. I prefer calling it SkyDome. How about the Rogers SkyDome.

 

Q-Hi Richard. I'm a longtime reader and love your insights. Definitely feeds my excitement for this season, just wish it wasn't so far away! My question focuses on the rebuilding process. I know you're against dealing Travis Snider, and I like him too. But with a acquisition of Lawrie, and the example of Larry Walker, could Lawrie not be a replacement for Snider? If so, what if the Jays dealt Snider and other not including Drabek (perhaps Deck McGuire) for Greinke. Then turned around and spent big money on Adrian Beltre and Adam Laroche? I realize it's a bit out there, but I think the Jays would be able to contend right away and have prospect depth.

-Richard Colton, Waterloo

 

A-I would rather begin with Drabek and add catcher Travis D'Arnaud as a starting point for Greinke. There would have to be a couple of more minor leaguers, or else a major-league bullpen guy. If Snider went in that deal, I would not think it was a great step forward. I see Snider as a breakout player in 2011. The Jays were very interested in LaRoche last winter. But with Lind a lefthanded swinging first baseman they might be looking for a righthanded hitting DH/1B. Beltre is a trap waiting to happen. 

 

Q-Griff,

As someone who hasn't yet finished grieving over the loss of "Nos Expos" your writings are my last connection to something that once brought me great joy. I haven't seen this 20th Anniversary film, where can I get my hands on it?  Also are there any other Expos films worth watching?

Love your work,

-Nick Capozzi, Toronto

 

A-When we did the 20th anniversary highlight film, it was basically on VCR. Donald Sutherland did the voice over. We flew to a sound studio in Miami to meet him during a break from that horrible prison movie he did with Sly Stallone back in the day. Donald played the evil prison warden. My biggest guffaw of the day was when we asked the great Canadian baseball fan whether Stallone was a better director or actor. Donald looked up and said: “Neither!” I lent my copy of the film a few years back and never got it back, so I must contact Brian Schecter in Vancouver to try and get a fresh copy for myself on DVD. I will ask him at that time if there is any way for others to acquire a copy. As for other Expos films, we did a different highlight package every year from 1979 on and they were alll so well scripted as to be unbelievably entertaining. Uh, that was my job. I don't knw how many copies still exist.

 

Q-Hi Richard

I enjoyed your column about Dave Van Horne and Tom Cheek. You make an excellent point of Van Horne being the more senior guy in the Hall of Fame vote. It's interesting that with you writing in Toronto and Alex A. running the whole show, we're getting a very different perspective on baseball after all these years of an AL-centric view of  the game. We've always had excellent writers here (Perkins, Elliott, et al) but a view from people with a NL background is quite different. The NL seems to be a place where teams are put together differently, where the 20th to 24th men are very important to a team's success. That hasn't always been the case in this town. By the way, The Last Hero: A Life of Henry Aaron by Howard Bryant, is a wonderful book. A great baseball story but, more than that, it's compelling history dealing with race, personal triumph and Aaron's complicated personality.

-Timothy Daniels, Toronto

 

A-I received a really nice e-mail from Shirley Cheek thanking me for the Frick piece and agreeing that Tom woud have been very happy for Dave. That was sweet. As for the Expos connection, don't forget that Bob Elliott's first work on the baseball beat was covering the Expos for the Ottawa Citizen for three years. He is a through and through National League guy. I will read the Aaron book.