Blue Jays sign fifth starter J.A. Happ to extension: Griffin

The Blue Jays on Thursday morning introduced the newest member of their starting rotation J.A. (Jay) Happ to the media, a day after signing a contract extension for two years, $8.9 million, plus an option for 2015 of $6.7 million. Happ was already under contract, avoiding arbitration, signing a one-year deal for $3.7 million in January.

“It's something that we first discussed in the off-season when we weere doing his arbitration case," Jays' GM Alex Anthopoulos said. "There was definitely an interest on the club's part. We wanted to wait and see how his foot healed. It was something that we said we would take a look at again. We started talking about it early in spring training again. We're excited to have him."

Happ, obtained from the Astros in a 10-player trade in July of 2012 that had seemed to lean heavily in favour of Houston, suffered a season-ending fracture to his right foot in September and spent the winter rehabbing the injury. He reported to spring training and has been the second most effective Jays' starter to righthander Josh Johnson. 

"I felt good coming in and I felt confident," Happ said of his physical condition entering the spring. "We did so many drills and exercises to try to simulate game-type situations. You never know being off your feet and non-weight bearing, it's not an easy or fun thing to do. It was certainly a process getting back, but it was definitely all worth it."

The signing came as somewhat of a surprise, since speculation was that Happ would either make the team in long relief or else be optioned to Triple-A Buffalo in order to stay stretched out in case of an injury of the failure of a starter. Then Romero was sent down opening the way for Happ to be inserted into the five-man rotation as fifth starter.

“You don't want to promise something and then have to go backwards, say this is the way things are going to be then something comes up and changes," Anthopoulos said. "(Manager John Gibbons) told me he was having a conversation with Jim Leyland. The quote he had that was great was 'Tell a player the truth, he'll hate you for a week. You lie to him, he'll hate you for a lifetime.' Those are great words to live by, whether you're staff member, front office. As hard as it was on Jay, and it was, he did a tremendous job trying to keep a clear head, go out and do what he could do and wait until he got the phone call."

Happ said that even though the starting job came late in the process, he has no intention of being considered "starting depth" which is the way the GM described his roster right now. It's the same disappointing scenario that Happ encountered when he first came over to the Jays last summer. He was a starter with the Astros, then headed to long relief until injuries to others opened the door late in the summer, before his own injury ended his season.

“I had agreed (to the extension) before I had even found out that I would make the rotation," Happ explained. "Obviously there's a trust and confidence in myself. I think this deal gives me more confidence that the organization believes in me to an extent and those are the things that went into the decision-making process.

He was asked about whether with the new contract it woud make it easier for him to accept going back to the pen or heading to Buffalo if Romero was to be given back his job.

“We can use the word 'depth' or whatever," Happ said. "That's not what I see myself as. I certainly plan on showing them that they shouldn't either. I want to be an established piece that makes a big contribution. That's always been my goal and that's the plan. There's no guarantees in anything, but I plan on pitching and keeping the spot."

The Jays are now paying six starting pitchers -- R.A. Dickey, Brandon Morrow, Mark Buehrle, Johnson, Happ and Romero -- a total of $43.7 million in 2012. Johnson is the only one not under contract beyond 2013. 

 

 

 

 

Blue Jays option Ricky Romero to Class-A Dunedin

Hours after manager John Gibbons had confirmed to media that Ricky Romero would remain in the Blue Jays' starting rotation, the club announced that the struggling lefthander was being optioned to Class-A Dunedin of the Florida State League.

Romero had been the Jays' opening day starter in 2012, but had slumped horribly, finishing the season with a 9-14 record and a 5.77 ERA, losing 12 of his final 13 decisions. Among 36 qualifiers for the ERA title -- more than 162 innings pitched -- Romero finished last in all three categories of ERA, WHIP (1.67) and WAR (-1.7). 

All winter and throughout spring training the Jays had maintained their confidence in Romero as the team's fifth starter, but GM Alex Anthopoulos hastily called an emergency staff meeting after Romero had pitched 4-1/3 innings vs. the Pirates, allowing six hits and three walks. The decision was made to send last year's ace to the low minors. The meeting was attended by Anthopoulos, Gibbons, pitching coach Pete Walker and AGM Tony LaCava.

The club had assured Romero all winter and at a pre-spring training meeting that he would be in the rotation, however he has spent the last 10 days attempting to incorporate an adjustment to his delivery that Walker maintains will benefit his health in the long run. That was the key that allowed them to make the move with a clear conscience.

"We ran out of time in making the adjustment," Anthopoulos said of the reason that the change was made. 

Romero, 28, has $23.1 million guaranteed remaining on his contract, through 2015. The GM said there is no timeline for Romero's return, but that the necessary adjustmenst of a more direct line to the plate would have to be completed before a return could even be contemplated.

Anthopoulos immediately called lefthander J.A. Happ to notify him that Romero had been optioned and that he would become the fifth starter heading into what is expected to be a contending season for the Blue Jays.

 

 

 

 

Blue Jays: Brett Lawrie to miss at least first four games on DL: Griffin

The Blue Jays have told injured third baseman Brett Lawrie that he will begin the season on the disabled list. Lawrie suffered an injury to his left ribcage in a tuneup for the World Baseball Classic on March 6 and has been working towards regaining his spot in time for opening day. The Jays have disabled the Langley (BC) flash retroactive to March 22, which means he is eligible to return on April 6 vs. the Red Sox. There are no guarantees.

What this move does is take the pressure off of Lawrie to push himself and possibly do further damage. Lawrie had progressed to taking groundballs and hitting off a tee, but the club felt that he would not be ready to contribute by April 2. 

Manager John Gibbons also announced that J.P. Arencibia will be the opening day catcher for R.A. Dickey, signalling a change of plan from the original idea of finding a personal catcher for the knuckleballing Dickey in his first year with the Jays.

Josh Thole had been included in the Dickey trade with the Mets, largely because of his experience at catching the knuckleball in the three previous seasons. Then, later on, the Jays signed free agent catcher Henry Blanco, who had caught six Dickey starts in 2010. Blanco will start the season as Arencibia's backup with Thole being optioned to Buffalo on Monday. Arencibia is still expected to catch around 130 games if healthy.

In addition to Thole, righthander Brad Lincoln and outfielder Anthony Gose were also optioned. Non-roster righthander David Bush was sent to minor-league camp for assignment. Catcher Mike Nickeas has been notified that he will not make the opening day roster, but will stay with the Jays in major-league camp through the trip to Philadelphia.

With Lawrie on the disabled list, Gibbons said that he will alternate between Mark DeRosa and Maicer Izturis at third base depending on matchups. The likelihood is that until Lawrie returns, the Jays may carry 13 pitchers on the 25-man roster.  

 

Blue Jays Notes Feb. 28, 2013 including Jays-Yankees; Loria-Reyes: Griffin

Jays edge Yankees 1-0

The Blue Jays shut out the Yankees at Steinbrenner Field on Thursday, behind the seven-hit pitching of Brandon Morrow and seven relievers. Morrow worked two innings, throwing an efficient 23 pitches, 15 for strikes. The righthander said that in his first start five days earlier in Lakeland, he treated it too much like an extension of live batting practice, rather than a game against a live major-league opponent. He made the adjustment.

“I treated it more like game speed,” Morrow said. “I was more aggressive to my spot, with the ball where I wanted to throw it. I felt the same kind of rhythm in my delivery last time but I was a little soft with throwing the ball. That's why everything was up. This time everything was down, good locations and a couple of good innings.”

The Jays' only run came on a solo homer by non-roster third-baseman Andy LaRoche in the seventh inning off rookie Chase Whitley that made a winner out of lefthander Brett Cecil. The young veteran Cecil touched 90 m.p.h. on the radar gun, but packed the wrong jersey for the trip across the bay, forced to wear the No. 26 of Adam Lind.

The Jays raised their record to 3-4 and will host Tampa Bay on Friday, with LH Mark Buehrle against RH Jake Odorizzi.

* * * * *  

Coach Luis Rivera breaks out the infield shift

For the first time this spring, the Jays made use of the exaggerated infield shift popularized in Toronto by former coach Brian Butterfield. In the first inning, with Mark Teixeira hitting, third baseman Brett Lawrie crossed the diamond to take his position at the back of the infield dirt between Edwin Encarnacion and Maicer Izturis. He played the situation at double-play depth with a runner at first, but Morrow struck Teixeira out.

With two outs, Lawrie backed up deeper into short right field for Travis Hafner. The Yankee DH ripped a hard ground ball off Encarnacion's glove that was then fielded by Lawrie and fired to first for the final out, the highly unusual 3-5-3 putout. Before the game, coach Luis Rivera had discussed the strategy.

“(Lawrie) is one of the keys to it,” Rivera said. “He can play so deep and he can come in and get the ball. I see him catching line drives to right field where it can be a base hit. We'll have to wait and see. There's a lot of video that I have to watch, even though last year I watched all those guys. Then we have to make a decision after that.”

It's not perfect. Later in the game, with Sergio Santos pitching, Hafner sliced a popup to medium left field. Using a normal defensive alignment, it would have been a routine play by the left fielder, but with the shift on, Jose Reyes had to race out at full speed and make a spectacular over the head catch. The shift taketh away and the shift giveth. Manager John Gibbons seems to have mixed feelings, but will leave the decision up to Rivera, with input from all five starting pitchers.

.”What I want (pitching coach) Pete (Walker) to do with some of those new pitchers when they get their gameplan together is sit down with Luis, the defensive guy, and make sure it all matches up,” Gibbons said. “Guys like (Mark) Buehrle, they know the (hitters). They know how they pitch. We want to make sure he's on board with it too, where he wants his defence to play. A guy like that is such a command guy. He's not going to miss a whole lot. We've got to make sure we get the guys in the spots where he likes them too.”

* * * * * 

Rasmus late scratch from lineup

Centre fielder Colby Rasmus had been in the original batting order that was posted on the board in Dunedin, but by the time the bus arrived at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, he had been replaced by Rajai Davis. Manager John Gibbons said that Rasmus had injured the back of his non-throwing shoulder on Wednesday, but nobody was quite sure of the play on which it occured or the circumstances. Rasmus is day-to-day.

* * * * *

Gibbons not big on regulating home plate collisions

There have been suggestions raised by a couple of major-league managers, Bruce Bochy of the Giants and Mike Matheny of the Cardinals, that perhaps collisions at home plate wherein the baserunner charges home and often rolls over the catcher resulting in injury, should be eliminated. Runners would not be allowed to contact a defenceless catcher.

Recall that Bochy's catcher Buster Posey was injured in a collision at the plate early in the 2011 season and missed the remainder of the season. In Posey's rookie season, 2010, and in his next healthy season, 2012, the Giants were World Series winners both years.

Meanwhile, Matheny's career as a major-league catcher was ended by concussions, some of which were likely caused or enhanced by collisions at the plate.

Like Matheny and Bochy, Jays' manager John Gibbons is a former major-league catcher, but he does not agree. In fact, Gibbons won the Mets' starting catching job at the end of spring training 1984, before Phillies outfielder Joe Lefebvre raced home from third base and threw an errant elbow that fractured Gibbons' jaw. He never regained the starting post after returning from the DL. Despite that, Gibbons prefers the rules the way they are.

“I want (J.P. Arencibia) to play like the game's always been played,” Gibbons said when asked if we would advise his man not to block the plate. “Injuries are freak things. But when a guy gets one at home plate, that's usually pretty serious though. That's the only problem with that.

“If you look at it, most catchers in baseball, they drift out (in front of the plate) anyway. Very rarely do they hold their ground on that, unless it's important like a game-winning run. The big complaint was, well they start leaking out. They've got to make a swipe tag or a dive tag. You end up missing the guy, so you always tell them, 'Hey, hold your ground.' I want him to play the game the way it's always been played. Injuries at home plate are very rare anyway.”

* * * * *

Reyes insists Jeffrey Loria advised him to buy a new house

Down the pike in Miami, the Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria told the Sun Sentinel's Juan Rodriguez that Jose Reyes' memory of events was not quite correct.

Loria insisted to Rodriguez that Reyes is the one that told the owner at a charity banquet that he and his wife were house-hunting and, further, Loria said that as soon as he found out from team executive Larry Beinfest that the trade with the Jays was potentially happening, that the owner called Reyes' agent to inform him. The charity fundraiser took place on Nov. 11 in New York City raising money for research for Lou Gehrig Disease (ALS). Honourees were Reyes and Mets' starter R.A. Dickey. The 12-player trade was leaked on Nov. 14. 

When Reyes was informed during Wednesday's batting practice prior to the Jays' game against the Yankees, of Loria's differing memory of those events, he laughed and quickly repeated his earlier assertions he had made in Jays camp in mid-February that the owner had told him to “buy a nice house.”

Reyes several days later, then left on vacation and it was while he was away in Dubai with his wife that he found out he was traded to the Blue Jays.

 

 

 

 

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Blue Jays mailbag: Let the season begin

Opening Day is at hand!!

All right, we know. The A's and M's have already opened their seasons with a two-game series in Japan, but for most of us, Opening Day arrives the middle of this week and the excitement is building in the form of quickened pulse and racing heart.

If the final weeks of spring training are any indication, there already seems to be a certain edge to baseball entering 2012. On Sunday there was the ugly bench-clearing between the Indians and Rockies precipitated by Ubaldo Jimenez drilling Troy Tulowitzki in the elbow, an act called cowardly and classless by Rockies manager Jim Tracy.

How about Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine and his grating personality. You know he's going to be in the middle of some ugliness before too long. Or loose cannon Ozzie Guillen as manager in Miami. Ditto to his effect on the NL East. In any case, even if it's just straight-up MLB baseball without the WWE extras, we're looking forward to the Jays on Thursday afternoon in Cleveland at the field formerly known as Jacobs.

On to the mailbag.  

Q-Hi Richard,

I want to get an understanding of the McGowan's contract. Kudos to him for showing such determination and "no quit" attitude. Did AA sign him so that he wouldn't possibly botch or pull a Ricciardi like losing Chris Carpenter? Also, with the guaranteed contract can he still be sent down (options)? That's what I really want to know. When and if Dustin makes his first start this season I'll be there to give him a standing O!

Sincerely,

Kam H, Richmond Hill

A-There are some solid reasons why signing McGowan to the contract the Jays offered makes sense for everyone. Both McGowan and the Jays realized that they owed each other a degree of loyalty after three years of the pitcher's intense and single-minded rehab, but how would that mutual admiration be translated into reality? It has always been a nice sports sentiment, but what form could it possibly take?

It turns out this two-way street has been paved by two guaranteed years, 2013-14, for a total of $3 million, plus a club option for $4-million in 2015. McGowan, because he was on the major-league disabled list for the entire length of his string of injuries, starting in 2008, had been accumulating major-league service time and, thus, would be eligible for his six-year free agency following the '12 season. The Jays understood this and basically gave him a contract the equivalent of a fourth-and-fifth-year arbitration-eligible player, plus a $4 million non-guaranteed year that will depend on health. Fair.

The Jays pre-empted McGowan's free agency instead of waiting until the end of the '12 season, a year for him that would have clouded the issue, because it will really be a success simply if the right-hander completes it in good health. They offered the contract now instead of having to negotiate the free agent deal at the end of the season and having any pesky, non-representative stats and results that probably won't be that impressive, stand in the way. The Jays decided to take all doubt out of the equation and get the deal done now. A load has been removed from McGowan's shoulders and he can go about his most recent rehab from the plantar fasciitis back in Florida with a clear head and a singleness of purpose, with the goal of getting back into the rotation ASAP.

Yes, the McGowan situation can clearly be compared to the way that the Jays mishandled Chris Carpenter, refusing to guarantee him a 40-man roster spot while he was rehabbing from a shoulder injury, then allowing him to go to the Cards as a free agent, seeing him overcome his injury and go on to win a Cy Young and World Series. The new McGowan contract does not add any minor-league options. He's all out. So if the Jays ever want to send him to the minors, he would have to clear waivers, which likely would not happen.     

Q-Hey Richard,

Why has there been no movement on MLB Network coming to Canada? It would be such a benefit to the popularity of both MLB and the Blue Jays here in Canada... and would be especially great for those of us who don't want to sit through 25 minutes of hockey coverage to see a few minutes of baseball highlights on the major sports networks. I know there are CRTC regulations to consider, but the NFL Network has been able to make its way here. When will they show us baseball fans the same respect?

Ian Murray, Toronto

A-I have wondered about that ever since the MLB Network debuted. It seems to me if it hasn't happened yet that we can purchase a feed of the MLB Network on cable in Canada, that it can only be because Rogers does not want it to happen because its content night serve to diminish the Sportsnet brands – ONE, Ontario, East and Pacific and all its already included baseball programming. Otherwise, it seems it could have easily been added to cable's monthly sports package. I'm not a CRTC expert, but Canadian content? Hell, when they started out three years ago, Toronto-native Hazel Mae was one of the stars of their news desk and don't Canadians always litter the on-field landscape. Then there's the Jays. Of course, I've been wrong before, but otherwise why wouldn't it be available.

Q-Hi Richard,

Should we be worried about Colby Rasmus' spring? BTW, I can't help but notice a change in your optimism. You know it's just spring training, but the kid in you seems to think this team may just compete!

Ryan B., Toronto

Q-If Colby Rasmus continues this spring as he did last year, will he be the Jays' centre fielder for the whole season? Would Anthony Gose be ready to replace him?

Tom Lurvey, Winnipeg 

A-The common thread in the above questions is Colby Rasmus. Any prediction of how he will perform once the bell rings for the regular season would be a guess. He's a hard read. Can all the scouts that predicted stardom for Rasmus as a Cards' prospect be wrong? But it's now up to him.

However, there is no doubt that he will remain the centre fielder throughout the year unless he is injured or traded. They value his defence. The Jays in the first half of last season had a horrible outfield defence that set the young starting rotation back tremendously. Rasmus's glove helps the pitching move forward.

As for Gose's arrival, when the Jays acquired him from the Astros they believed he needed 1,500 more minor league at-bats. He has about 1,000 since then. They will let Gose complete the year in Vegas.

Finally, as per my added optimism regarding the Jays, other readers have noticed the same and commented on my seemingly increased belief regarding the Jays ability to compete.

After much self-pondering I have arrived at the belief I have been afflicted by a sort of sporting Stockholm syndrome. I believe I have spent so much time in close Jays' confinement at spring training, arriving early in the morning to the clubhouse and leaving late at night, that like a kidnap victim that absorbs and starts to sympathize with the plight of his captors, I believe I have become a reluctant convert much like Patty Hearst back in the day taking on the alias of Tania and robbing a Wells Fargo bank shoulder-to-shoulder the Symbionese Liberation Army in the '70s. It's now “Let's go Blue Jays, let's play ball.”

Patty Hearst (Google it, kids).

Q-What year did the Blue Jays have their last winning Grapefruit League season? Please tell me it was in the early 90's, if you catch my drift.

Ronnie Lucas, Belleville

Q-Hi Richard.

Hope this isn't a dumb question but I'll ask it anyway does the current spring training record mean for the Jays with respect to the regular season? Are they peaking early or is this a good thing and what are the benefits? I asked my buddies the question, it has us all scratching our heads.

Alex Glowach, St. Albert  

A-This is another popular question, the significance of the Jays' stunning spring training record. There are two main reasons for a fab spring record.

1. An organization that may feel it needs to win games in the spring in order to sell tickets at home. That usually follows up a disappointing regular season the year before and an ownership that applies the pressure on the manager and GM.

2.An organization that is deep in talent, especially young pitching, all the way through the upper levels of the minor leagues.

The latter is the explanation for the Jays' spring. It usually doesn't mean anything to the regular season. 

The Jays in their first year under John Farrell were 16-14 in  Grapefruit League play last year. The second-year manager swears he's not trying to win all these games this spring, that the goal is getting the individual players ready for the season and staying healthy.

The Top 4 previous Blue Jays' spring records: 21 wins in '89; 19 wins in '85; 18 wins in '88 and '00. In two of those four seasons that followed the most successful springs, the manager was fired – Jimy Williams in '89 and Jim Fregosi after the '00 season and in a third year, after the '85 schedule, Bobby Cox quit to go to the Braves. As for the World Series years, the Grapefruit League records were 13-18 in '92 and 11-19 in '93. The Jays in relation to .500 marks in the spring have been 13-19-5 in 38 years.     

Q-Long time reader, and I will throw a few short thoughts to you.  

If Lind isn't the guy at first, why not move one of the two catchers over a la Delgado, then you wouldn't have to lose either and both can become integral parts.

 

Adeiny should get a look with the big club if Johnson stumbles in April, let him have a month and see if there is anything he can adjust in June in Vegas.

Good to limit the innings of the kids in the minors so that they have bullets, will they do this for Kyle as well?

Snider or Thames? Who will be a Jay in 2013 if you only keep one.

Ian Serota, Thornhill

A-The question of first base and having two catchers is one the Jays are going to have to address very soon.

For now, Adam Lind is locked in at first and Arencibia is the catcher. When D'Arnaud is ready for the majors at the end of 2012, first base might become an option for Arencibia. He developed well as a receiver last year, but J.P. must show similar progress in his hitting and on-base abilities in '12.

Hechavarria, once he gets his legs under him at Triple-A will be ready to come up on option and fill in should either Johnson or Yunel Escobar be forced onto the disabled list. The 22-year-old Cuban's defence is already magic. But if Johnson and Escobar stay healthy, they will play unless traded.

Drabek has pitched 153+ innings in each of the past three seasons, but not at the major-league level. If it turns out that Kyle is in the majors all year, they will likely limit him to about 170 innings because the stress level is definitely higher at the major-league level. But he is further along than McGowan.

As for Snider or Thames in 2013? I think that will take care of itself and sometimes it becomes who the other team wants or the quality of the player they offer. Anthopoulos is flexible in terms of listening.      

Q-Richard,

Just got back from Tampa after spending 4 days there watching the Jays, getting some sun and the occasional adult beverage (the 99 cent beers at the Tilted Kilt is no joke). Even saw you a couple times and was thinking I should say hi, but decided against it. Hard to believe someone has to work in that stadium when it is so amazing just to be a fan.

Is Rasmus going to pick it up? He seemed to be the only guy who wasn't hitting the ball the past 4 days, and as we sat there and watched him he reminded us of Rios, seems like he has potential, but has defintiely not put it together. Any chance he flames out this year and the team makes a move, to either Gose or someone else to fill the gap? Love your writing, thanks,

Bryan Chandler, Ottawa

A-It seems to me that Rasmus's spring performance remains the biggest concern among Mailbag contributors this week.

Colby will likely get a full year to prove himself offensively before the Jays make a decision on his long-term future, or not, with the team. With Gose on the rise, with Thames and Snider still on board and with other talented young outfielders like Jake Marisnick, in the hopper, Rasmus, unless he turns it around, could only be short-term in centre field.

And yes, the Tilted Kilt at Happy Hour is a wonderful thing. Prior to the start of the Grapefruit League schedule, I went over to the Kilt, hard by the Phillies ballpark in Clearwater, for their 50 cent wings, 99 cent domestic pints and a very strong wireless signal, perfect for a hungry blogger in late February. It was great and cheap. Feel free to say hello at the stadium next spring...and thank you for calling what I do “work.” 

Q-Hi Richard,

Love the blog! Two questions. First, I loved the way Snider and Thames performed this spring, and I'm sure the brass was too. Everyday I check the papers thinking that I am going to see one of them traded. I'm even more worried that it will be Snider. Is one of these guys trade bait right now? Second, I also love the McGowan signing, but is this more of a reward for the work he has put in during comeback, or his he really poised to be a contributer over the next couple of years?

Colin W, Ottawa

A-In the Snider/Thames case, the Indians are one team currently looking for a viable starting outfielder, but unless a significant prospect was to be coming back in return, why would Anthopoulos consider doing it. It's a long season and it's likely that Snider will get his chance back in the majors at some point during the schedule.

Snider is 24, Thames 25, but Snider is now using his final option. As for McGowan, yes it's partially about the reward and yes, he can be a contributor if healthy, but if not, the guaranteed money is easy to absorb in the grand scheme of things.

Other players, future free agents and their agent representatives, always tend to notice the little things that any team does to define itself. The McGowan signing is one of those things. It's a return to the values under Pat Gillick and Peter Hardy.

Q-Hi Richard,

I like your blog and columns, and, like you, I'm a former Expos fan. I'll keep them in my heart for quite a bit still, I'm sure. I'm wondering about the somewhat bizarre trend in your columns and blog posts lately of avoiding to name the Dunedin stadium by its current name at any cost (the Florida Auto Exchange Stadium I think it's called now).

Do you have a specific gripe about the current sponsor? Are you going to start naming Rogers Centre the "stadium formerly known as Skydome"? Let's see how long it will take Rogers to get nasty with you after trying that kind of stunt a couple of times.

Patrice Maltais, Scarborough

Q-Hi Richard,

It's nice to have the vicarious thrill of hearing all Spring Training when we can't make it to Florida. Thanks for the rich commentary. But I'll bite on one issue: What's the deal with all of the mentions of "the stadium formerly known as Grant Field"? Is this your personal reference to losing out on the Prince Fielder sweepstakes?

Bryan Willis, Vancouver

Q-Hey Richard,

Why do you keep mentioning the Jays are playing in a stadium formerly known as Dunedin Stadium? It is akin mentioning the stadium formerly known as the Skydome. Thanks,

Martin Hugh, Toronto 

A-Who knew that my daily spring tribute to “the artist formerly known as Prince” would cause such consternation among readers. The three questions reprinted above are mere examples of the righteous indignation and head-scratching confusion that my “stadium formerly known as Grant Field” daily designation of Florida Auto Exchange Stadium produced.

Here's how the tradition came about.

First, admit it, that's not an easy name to remember and when the Jays moved their spring operations from the Mattick complex to the stadium, as they do at the start of March each year, it became a frustrating daily question. “What the hell's the name of this place again?” I would ask Gregor Chisolm of MLB.com.

The daily frustration was compounded by the fact that in most spring parks, the stadium name is proudly displayed on the scoreboard, but at FAES the only place it's visible is on the concrete wall behind home plate which, frustratingly, is right under the press box window and not visible from where I sit. I got tired of asking every day.

Besides, have you ever driven by the Florida Auto Exchange on Main Street Dunedin?

It looks like a ramshackle white shed with a bunch of abandoned cars parked in haphazard fashion. How and why did they decide it was a good idea to sponsor the Jays' ballpark. How could they afford it?

It makes me want to buy my own spot on the outfield fence next year promoting Richard Griffin's Mailbag with a big sunburned headshot of me smiling out at Jose Bautista as he patrols right field. Maybe the eyes could be made to move back and forth. That would be nice. How much could that cost, really, if FAE can afford to sponsor the whole park?

By the way, I like that reader's idea of “was it a reference to not signing Prince Fielder.” I wish it was.  

Q-Richard,

Something that has bothered me for months is people, some reporters included, talking about Blue Jay starting pitching depth.

While I will concede maybe by 2014 I see the type of depth I like evolving, let me pose the following to you, I will give you Romero (Cy Young candidate I believe). I will also count Morrow although he sure reminds me of a younger A.J. Burnett at this stage of his career. And I will even say Henderson Alvarez appears to be the real deal but what is the track record of big seasons by 21-year-olds?

However Cecil will not make it through the entire season throwing the way he is and I think the Jays know this. McGowan is a great story but best case scenario is he does well and gets shut down at 150 innings and worst case is he blows his arm out.....sadly this can't be ruled out.

Who is next in line after these two? Kyle Drabek still seems to be struggling with control and I am not even counting mentally. Drew Hutchinson is young and all seem to agree he needs more seasoning?

As much as I love this team I just can't consider them a serious playoff contender and don't understand why they were so steadfast that they needed to acquire a number 2 quality starter when frankly I would have been happy acquiring a guaranteed "innings eater" with middle of the road ability?

Thanks ,

Mike Davies, Hespeler

A-The Jays' pitching depth is real but not yet fully arrived. There is no Jo-Jo Reyes on the depth chart this year, which is the real sign of progress over where it was a year ago. The opening day rotation is simply the starting off point.

The Jays have averaged 12 different starting pitchers over the past three seasons. Here is one man's depth chart of pitchers that could realistically be ready to be among this year's dirty dozen: Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Cecil, Drabek, McGowan, Aaron Laffey, Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire, Joel Carreno, Drew Hutchison. That's a solid 11. The 12th is always a surprise.

What I don't understand, however, is your suggestion that an innings-eater with middle-of-the-road ability would have been better than acquiring a No. 2 starter. If they had obtained a guy like Mat Latos or Yu Darvish, it would have been a nice fit, albeit at different cash values, and people would now be talking about the Jays having a legitimate chance to contend in the bold, new, two-wild card world. But they will really need someone that is already here to step up big time like Morrow or Alvarez in order to contend this year. It remains a possibility if Morrow is indeed not A.J. reincarnate – which he's not.   

Q-Hey Richard,

Big fan of your work and I was wondering If I am the only Jays fan who wants to see Rajai Davis get the bulk of playing time this year over Colby Rasmus.

My only concern here is fielding because we know Rasmus is the much better option defensively. My point is we already have what Rasmus can give us on the team but nobody else offers what Davis has in terms of changing a game with his speed.Also he is a career .274 hitter. I do believe and had an injury-plagued down year last year but also hit .280 and over .300 the previous two seasons in Oakland... I'll admit there is just something about Rasmus I don't like. I agree that it was worth taking a chance on him with the trade where we gave up very little and will gladly eat my words if he lives up to his potential but how long of a leash will he get this season because he was absolutely brutal last year even before he hurt his wrist or hand or whatever. Maybe I'm way out to left field on this one you get to see the guys in Spring Training so what are your thoughts...

Chris McMillan, Marsvilles

A-I believe that Jays' outfield defence is one of manager John Farrell's biggest personal concerns at the start of '12 as a way to make this pitching rotation as good as it can be...or at least to give them the opportunity to prove what they can truly do when given outfield support. Recall last season's start with an opening day injury to Rajai Davis that brought into play Juan Rivera and Corey Patterson on a daily basis until the Rasmus deal.

Even when Davis returned, it was not contributing to an optimum defensive situation. His major defensive asset is being able to outrun his mistakes.

Farrell loves Davis off the bench. As a fourth outfielder, Farrell is guaranteed that in the 8th or 9th inning  Davis can be available as a weapon to disrupt pitchers and maybe advance to scoring position in a close game. If he's in the starting lineup, you can't always choose when he comes up or reaches first base in a close game to become “the disruptor.”

As a player off the bench, you can always make that decision. Davis will get a number of opportunities to start games in centre field against tough left-handers or when Rasmus is a little nicked up or needs a rest. Davis is now in his best role, the one that was described for him when he was first acquired, even before Vernon Wells was dealt to the Angels.

Q-Dear Richard,

I have had just about enough of Adam Lind, especially against left-handed pitching. Is there any indication that if his hitting is not improved by the all-star break that we will see David Cooper, Mike McDade, or Yan Gomes in that position.

Craig Armstrong, Toronto

A-The first step would be to move Lind out of the cleanup role as the first line of protection for Jose Bautista. That move down the order is already going to happen against left-handers, with Bautista, Encarnacion and Lawrie going 3-4-5 in the platoon lineup. Whether Lind bats down in the order or gets the day off vs. lefties will be the only early question.

Against right-handers, Lind came on late in the spring and despite being sidelined briefly with back woes, began swinging the bat much better. He will be given plenty of rope against right-handers, which is the majority. If Lind is DL'd, Cooper would be the first player called up and Encarnacion would likely get the majority of reps at first base. The only way Yan Gomes sees the majors is as a backup catcher if Jeff Mathis is forced to the DL. 

Q-Greetings Richard,

I just finished reading your Q&A from Feb 23 and would like to respond to one of your comments. You had respond to a listener at the time that Encarnacion should be the full-time DH and nothing but that beg to disagree with you but have you ever looked at his career statistics? They are horrid! Have a look at his career statistics from BaseballReference.com and you will see a player who has never had more than 3 good months out of six each year during his 7 years in the Majors. If he was a pitcher I would consider him to be the Josh Towers or Jo-Jo Reyes from the world of DH's or crap infielders. Please take the time and look then explain to me why you would consider him for something full-time? FYI yes it is friggin cold here in the really far south. I get to have a 20 month straight of winter....Fun Wow!!

Petr Von Rolt, The South Pole Station.

A-Our views on this issue are polar opposites. You likely would have been opposed to giving Jose Bautista the opportunity to play every day back in 2010 because of his previous history. Look what you would have missed out on.

I look at Encarnacion's splits last season between right-handed and left-handed pitching and his offensive performance as a DH and first baseman compared to his horrible stats as a third baseman, which is at least understandable because three days before the start of the '11 season he was parachuted into the hot corner so that Bautista could move back to right.

Watching Edwin swing the bat every day last year, the potential always shone through in terms of power and hitting the ball hard. He is a free agent at the end of the season and is in the right place to succeed as a full-time DH and reserve at first base, third base and in left field. He can be a very useful player.   

Q-Dear Richard,

The Jays are reluctant to send their best young pitchers to Las Vegas for fear of hurting their confidence because the PCL is such a hitters' league. However, wouldn't it make sense to at least send their college grads (e.g. Jenkins and McGuire) to Las Vegas to see if they can handle the pressure? In any case, they better find a new AAA site soon since within a year or two they have far too many good young arms to leave them all at AA .

Thanks,

Bill Reynolds, Toronto

A-I agree. I'm not so sure they need to send Jenkins and McGuire to Vegas to see how they handle pitching inside a pinball machine, but I get your point. The future problem is they do have too many good young starting pitchers coming up from behind to maintain the same policy of Double-A or bust.

The Vegas affiliate contract is expiring at the end of the year and they would love to find a place like Buffalo that is closer to T-O and easier on starting pitchers. Maybe Ottawa, but the International League would need to transfer an existing franchise or else add two teams.

The Jays don't own their affiliates. Once again this year, they have tried to avoid exposing their young studs to Sin City, with Jenkins, Carreno, Hutchison and McGuire all starting out in the forests of New Hampshire. Meanwhile, at Vegas are guys like Nelson Figueroa, Tim Redding, Scott Richmond and, likely, Aaron Laffey.

Q-Hi Richard,

I totally understand the concept of options on players and making sure they are managed properly so talent isn't needlessly lost.

Where I have trouble with AA on this is when he has those conversations with players and tells them that if they were out of options and fighting for a job, they have the inside track. I think that does a disservice to players with options and also doesn't motivate the ones without options.

I know that in the real world where you and I work, a strategy like that wouldn't fly.

Whatever happened to putting the best team you have out there? If a player is out of options and there is no place for him, then trade/cut him so that 1) you have the best team on the field, 2) you make the player who worked the hardest to win the job happy 3) you give the player without options another chance to catch on with another team. Your thoughts?

Mat Saturn, Toronto

A-If you take the uniqueness of the messages in baseball out of the equation, there is not much to criticize about sitting your employees down and outlining for them a no-holds-barred summary of where they stand professionally.

The CBA's system of “minor-league options” doesn't exist in many other occupations.For instance, The Star would never sit me down in January and decide that if there was no room on the baseball beat they might send me to, say, the Oakville Beaver for more seasoning.

Just because Anthopoulos and manager John Farrell told the players where they stood prior to camp did not guarantee them jobs. They still had to work hard in the spring to win the position, while the guys behind them on the depth chart had to work just as hard to maintain their “we got next” status.

It's those kids that come to spring training and think they have a chance with a good spring training, it's those kids that are devastated by their demotions that need to be spoken to realistically at the start of camp. If anyone actually stops working hard because they know where they stand, you don't want them.

Q-Hey Richard,

Me, Adam Lind, and Kelly Johnson have a bet going for who you think has the best shot at winning comeback player of the year this year based on what you've seen at spring training. It is me right?

Colby Rasmus, Toronto courtesy of M. Siddall

A-Sure Colby, but in most cases there has to have been one really, really good year in your past to come back to in order to be a comeback candidate. Maybe you can be a breakout candidate instead.

 

Mailbag 04-02-12

by Richard Griffin

 

Opening Day is at hand!! Alright, we know. The A's and M's have already opened their seasons with a two-game series in Japan, but for most of us, Opening Day arrives the middle of this week and the excitement is building in the form of quickened pulse and racing heart. If the final weeks of spring training are any indication, there already seems to be a certain edge to baseball entering 2012. On Sunday there was the ugly bench-clearing between the Indians and Rockies precipitated by Ubaldo Jimenez drilling Troy Tulowitzki in the elbow, an act called cowardly and classless by Rockies manager Jim Tracy. How about Red Sox manager Bobby Valentine and his grating personality. You know he's going to be in the middle of some ugliness before too long. Or loose cannon Ozzie Guillen as manager in Miami. Ditto to his effect on the NL East. In any case, even if it's just straight-up MLB baseball without the WWE extras, we're looking forward to the Jays on Thursday afternoon in Cleveland at the field formerly known as Jacobs. On to the mailbag.  

 

 

Q-Hi Richard,

I want to get an understanding of the McGowan's contract. Kudos to him for showing such determination and "no quit" attitude. Did AA sign him so that he wouldn't possibly botch or pull a Ricciardi like losing Chris Carpenter? Also, with the guaranteed contract can he still be sent down (options)? That's what I really want to know. When and if Dustin makes his first start this season I'll be there to give him a standing O!

Sincerely,

Kam H, Richmond Hill

 

A-There are some solid reasons why signing McGowan to the contract the Jays offered makes sense for everyone. Both McGowan and the Jays realized that they owed each other a degree of loyalty after three years of the pitcher's intense and single-minded rehab, but how would that mutual admiration be translated into reality. It has always been a nice sports sentiment, but what form could it possibly take? It turns out this two-way street has been paved by two guaranteed years, 2013-14, for a total of $3 million, plus a club option for $4-million in 2015. McGowan, because he was on the major-league disabled list for the entire length of his string of injuries, starting in 2008, had been accumulating major-league service time and, thus, would be eligible for his six-year free agency following the '12 season. The Jays understood this and basically gave him a contract the equivalent of a fourth-and-fifth-year arbitration-eligible player, plus a $4 million non-guaranteed year that will depend on health. Fair.

The Jays pre-empted McGowan's free agency instead of waiting until the end of the '12 season, a year for him that would have clouded the issue, because it will really be a success simply if the right-hander completes it in good health. They offered the contract now instead of having to negotiate the free agent deal at the end of the season and having any pesky, non-representative stats and results that probably won't be that impressive, stand in the way. The Jays decided to take all doubt out of the equation and get the deal done now. A load has been removed from McGowan's shoulders and he can go about his most recent rehab from the plantar fasciitis back in Florida with a clear head and a singleness of purpose, with the goal of getting back into the rotation ASAP.

Yes, the McGowan situation can clearly be compared to the way that the Jays mishandled Chris Carpenter, refusing to guarantee him a 40-man roster spot while he was rehabbing from a shoulder injury, then allowing him to go to the Cards as a free agent, seeing him overcome his injury and go on to a Cy Young and World Series. The new McGowan contract does not add any minor-league options. He's all out. So if the Jays ever want to send him to the minors, he would have to clear waivers, which likely would not happen.     

 

 

Q-Hey Richard,

Why has there been no movement on MLB Network coming to Canada? It would be such a benefit to the popularity of both MLB and the Blue Jays here in Canada... and would be especially great for those of us who don't want to sit through 25 minutes of hockey coverage to see a few minutes of baseball highlights on the major sports networks. I know there are CRTC regulations to consider, but the NFL Network has been able to make its way here. When will they show us baseball fans the same respect?

Ian Murray, Toronto

 

A-I have wondered about that ever since the MLB Network debuted. It seems to me if it hasn't happened yet that we can purchase a feed of the MLB Network on cable in Canada, that it can only be because Rogers does not want it to happen because its content night serve to diminish the Sportsnet brands – ONE, Ontario, East and Pacific and all its already included baseball programming. Otherwise, it seems it could have easily been added to cable's monthly sports package. I'm not a CRTC expert, but Canadian content? Hell, when they started out three years ago, Toronto-native Hazel Mae was one of the stars of their news desk and don't Canadians always litter the on-field landscape. Then there's the Jays. Of course, I've been wrong before, but otherwise why wouldn't it be available.

 

 

Q-Hi Richard,

Should we be worried about Colby Rasmus' spring? BTW, I can't help but notice a change in your optimism. You know it's just spring training, but the kid in you seems to think this team may just compete!

Ryan B., Toronto

Q-If Colby Rasmus continues this spring as he did last year, will he be the Jay's centre fielder for the whole season? Would Anthony Gose be ready to replace him?

Tom Lurvey, Winnipeg

 

A-The common thread in the above questions is Colby Rasmus. Any prediction of how he will perform once the bell rings for the regular season would be a guess. He's a hard read. Can all the scouts that predicted stardom for Rasmus as a Cards' prospect be wrong? But it's now up to him. However, there is no doubt that he will remain the centre fielder throughout the year unless he is injured or traded. They value his defence. The Jays in the first half of last season had a horrible outfield defence that set the young starting rotation back tremendously. Rasmus's glove helps the pitching move forward.

As for Gose's arrival, when the Jays acquired him from the Astros they believed he needed 1,500 more minor league at-bats. He has about 1,000 since then. They will let Gose complete the year in Vegas.

Finally, as per my added optimism re the Jays, other readers have noticed the same and commented on my seemingly increased belief regarding the Jays ability to compete. After much self-pondering I have arrived at the belief I have been afflicted by a sort of sporting Stockholm syndrome. I believe I have spent so much time in close Jays' confinement at spring training, arriving early in the morning to the clubhouse and leaving late at night, that like a kidnap victim that absorbs and starts to sympathize with the plight of his captors, I believe I have become a reluctant convert much like Patty Hearst back in the day taking on the alias of Tania and robbing a Wells Fargo bank shoulder-to-shoulder the Symbionese Liberation Army in the '70s. It's now “Let's go Blue Jays, let's play ball.” 

 

 

Q-What year did the Blue Jays have their last winning Grapefruit League season? Please tell me it was in the early 90's, if you catch my drift.

Ronnie Lucas, Belleville

Q-Hi Richard.

Hope this isn't a dumb question but I'll ask it anyway does the current spring training record mean for the Jays with respect to the regular season? Are they peaking early or is this a good thing and what are the benefits? I asked my buddies the question, it has us all scratching our heads.

Alex Glowach, St. Albert

 

A-This is another popular question, the significance of the Jays' stunning spring training record. There are two main reasons for a fab spring record. 1-An organization that may feel it needs to win games in the spring in order to sell tickets at home. That usually follows up a disappointing regular season the year before and an ownership that applies the pressure on the manager and GM. 2-An organization that is deep in talent, especially young pitching, all the way through the upper levels of the minor leagues. The latter is the explanation for the Jays' spring. It usually doesn't mean anything to the regular season. 

A recent spring study shows the Jays in the first year under John Farrell last year were 16-14 in  Grapefruit League play. The second-year manager swears he's not trying to win all these games this spring, that the goal is getting the individual players ready for the season and staying healthy.

The Top 4 previous Blue Jays' spring records: 21 wins in '89; 19 wins in '85; 18 wins in '88 and '00. In two of those four seasons that followed the most successful springs, the manager was fired – Jimy Williams in '89 and Jim Fregosi after the '00 season and in a third year, after the '85 schedule, Bobby Cox quit to go to the Braves. As for the World Series years, the Grapefruit League records were 13-18 in '92 and 11-19 in '93. The Jays in relation to .500 marks in the spring have been 13-19-5 in 38 years.     

 

 

Q-Long time reader, and I will throw a few short thoughts to you.

1.      If Lind isn't the guy at first, why not move one of the two catchers over a la Delgado, then you wouldn't have to lose either and both can become integral parts.

Adeiny should get a look with the big club if Johnson stumbles in April, let him have a month and see if there is anything he can adjust in June in Vegas.

Good to limit the innings of the kids in the minors so that they have bullets, will they do this for Kyle as well?

Snider or Thames? Who will be a Jay in 2013 if you only keep one.

Ian Serota, Thornhill

 

A-The question of first base and having two catchers is one the Jays are going to have to address very soon. For now, Adam Lind is locked in at first and Arencibia is the catcher. When D'Arnaud is ready for the majors at the end of 2012, first base might become an option for Arencibia He developed well as a receiver last year, but J.P. must show similar progress in his hitting and on-base abilities in '12.

Hechavarria, once he gets his legs under him at Triple-A will be ready to come up on option and fill in should either Johnson or Yunel Escobar be forced onto the disabled list. The 22-year-old Cuban's defence is already magic. But if Johnson and Escobar stay healthy, they will play unless traded.

Drabek has pitched 153+ innings in each of the past three seasons, but not at the major-league level. If it turns out that Kyle is in the majors all year, they will likely limit him to about 170 innings because the stress level is definitely higher at the major-league level. But he is further along than McGowan.

As for Snider or Thames in 2013? I think that will take care of itself and sometimes it becomes who the other team wants or the quality of the player they offer. Anthopoulos is flexible in terms of listening.      

 

 

Q-Richard,

Just got back from Tampa after spending 4 days there watching the Jays, getting some sun and the occasional adult beverage (the 99 cent beers at the Tilted Kilt is no joke). Even saw you a couple times and was thinking I should say hi, but decided against it. Hard to believe someone has to work in that stadium when it is so amazing just to be a fan. Is Rasmus going to pick it up? He seemed to be the only guy who wasn't hitting the ball the past 4 days, and as we sat there and watched him he reminded us of Rios, seems like he has potential, but has defintiely not put it together. Any chance he flames out this year and the teams makes a move, to either Gose or someone else to fill the gap? Love your writing, thanks,

Bryan Chandler, Ottawa

 

A-It seems to me that Rasmus's spring performance remains the biggest concern among Mailbag contributors this week. Colby will likely get a full year to prove himself offensively before the Jays make a decision on his long-term future, or not, with the team. With Gose on the rise, with Thames and Snider still on board and with other talented young outfielders like Jake Marisnick, in the hopper, Rasmus, unless he turns it around, could only be short-term in centre field. And yes, the Tilted Kilt at Happy Hour is a wonderful thing. Prior to the start of the Grapefruit League schedule, I went over to the Kilt, hard by the Phillies ballpark in Clearwater, for their 50 cent wings, 99 cent domestic pints and a very strong wireless signal, perfect for a hungry blogger in late February. It was great and cheap. Feel free to say hello at the stadium next spring...and thank you for calling what I do “work.”. 

 

 

Q-Hi Richard,

Love the blog! Two questions. First, I loved the way Snider and Thames performed this spring, and I'm sure the brass was too. Everyday I check the papers thinking that I am going to see one of them traded. I'm even more worried that it will be Snider. Is one of these guys trade bait right now? Second, I also love the McGowan signing, but is this more of a reward for the work he has put in during comeback, or his he really poised to be a contributer over the next couple of years?

Colin W, Ottawa

 

A-In the Snider/Thames case, the Indians are one team currently looking for a viable starting outfielder, but unless a significant prospect was to be coming back in return, why would Anthopoulos consider doing it. It's a long Jays' season and it's likely that Snider will get his chance back in the majors at some point during the schedule. Snider is 24, Thames 25, but Snider is now using his final option. As for McGowan, yes it's partially about the reward and yes he can be a contributor if healthy, but if not, the guaranteed money is easy to absorb in the grand scheme of things. Other players, future free agents and their agent representatives, always tend to notice the little things that any team does to define itself. The McGowan signing is one of those things. It's a return to the values under Pat Gillick and Peter Hardy.

 

 

Q-Hi Richard,

I like your blog and columns, and, like you, I'm a former Expos fan. I'll keep them in my heart for quite a bit still, I'm sure. I'm wondering about the somewhat bizarre trend in your columns and blog posts lately of avoiding to name the Dunedin stadium by its current name at any cost (the Florida Auto Exchange Stadium I think it's called now). Do you have a specific gripe about the current sponsor? Are you going to start naming Rogers Centre the "stadium formerly known as Skydome"? Let's see how long it will take Rogers to get nasty with you after trying that kind of stunt a couple of times.

Patrice Maltais, Scarborough

Q-Hi Richard,

It's nice to have the vicarious thrill of hearing all Spring Training when we can't make it to Florida. Thanks for the rich commentary. But I'll bite on one issue: What's the deal with all of the mentions of "the stadium formerly known as Grant Field"? Is this your personal reference to losing out on the Prince Fielder sweepstakes?

Bryan Willis, Vancouver

Q-Hey Richard,

Why do you keep mentioning the Jays are playing in a stadium formerly known as Dunedin Stadium? It is akin mentioning the stadium formerly known as the Skydome.

thanks,

Martin Hugh, Toronto

 

A-Who knew that my daily spring tribute to “the artist formerly known as Prince” would cause such consternation among readers. The three questions reprinted above are mere examples of the righteous indignation and head-scratching confusion that my “stadium formerly known as Grant Field” daily designation of Florida Auto Exchange Stadium produced. Here's how the tradition came about.

First, admit it, that's not an easy name to remember and when the Jays moved their spring operations from the Mattick complex to the stadium, as they do at the start of March each year, it became a frustrating daily question. “What the hell's the name of this place again?” I would ask Gregor Chisolm of MLB.com. The daily frustration was compounded by the fact that in most spring parks, the stadium name is proudly displayed on the scoreboard, but at FAES the only place it's visible is on the concrete wall behind home plate which, frustratingly, is right under the press box window and not visible from where I sit. I got tired of asking every day. Besides, have you ever driven by the Florida Auto Exchange on Main Street Dunedin? It looks like a ramshackle white shed with a bunch of abandoned cars parked in haphazard fashion. How and why did they decide it was a good idea to sponsor the Jays' ballpark. How could they afford it? It makes me want to buy my own spot on the outfield fence next year promoting Richard Griffin's Mailbag with a big sunburned headshot of me smiling out at Jose Bautista as he patrols right field. Maybe the eyes could be made to move back and forth. That would be nice. How much could that cost, really, if FAE can afford to sponsor the whole park? By the way, I like that reader's idea of “was it a reference to not signing Prince Fielder.” I wish it was.  

 

 

Q-Richard,

Something that has bothered me for months is people, some reporters included, talking about Blue Jay starting pitching depth. While I will concede maybe by 2014 I see the type of depth I like evolving, let me pose the following to you, I will give you Romero (Cy Young candidate I believe). I will also count Morrow although he sure reminds me of a younger AJ Burnett at this stage of his career. And I will even say Henderson Alvarez appears to be the real deal but what is the track record of big seasons by 21 years olds? However Cecil will not make it through the entire season throwing the way he is and I think the Jays know this. McGowan is a great story but best case scenario is he does well and gets shut down at 150 innings and worst case is he blows his arm out.....sadly this can't be ruled out. Who is next in line for these two? Kyle Drabek still seems to be struggling with control and I am not even counting mentally. Drew Hutchinson is young and all seem to agree he needs more seasoning? As much as I love this team I just can't consider them a serious playoff contender and don't understand why they were so steadfast that they needed to acquire a number 2 quality starter when frankly I would have been happy acquiring a guaranteed "innings eater" with middle of the road ability?

Thanks ,

Mike Davies, Hespeler

 

A-The Jays' pitching depth is real but not yet fully arrived. There is no Jo-Jo Reyes on the depth chart this year, which is the real sign of progress over where it was a year ago. The opening day rotation is simply the starting off point. The Jays have averaged 12 different starting pitchers over the past three seasons. Here is one man's depth chart of pitchers that could realistically be ready to be among this year's dirty dozen: Romero, Morrow, Alvarez, Cecil, Drabek, McGowan, Aaron Laffey, Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire, Joel Carreno, Drew Hutchison. That's a solid 11. The 12th is always a surprise.

What I don't understand, however, is your suggestion that an innings-eater with middle-of-the-road ability would have been better than acquiring a No. 2 starter. If they had obtained a guy like Mat Latos or Yu Darvish, it would have been a nice fit, albeit at different cash values, and people would now be talking about the Jays having a legitimate chance to contend in the bold, new, two-wildcard world. But they will really need someone that is already here to step up big time like Morrow or Alvarez in order to contend this year. It remains a possibility if Morrow is indeed not A.J. reincarnate – which he's not.   

 

 

Q-Hey Richard,

Big fan of your work and I was wondering If I am the only Jays fan who wants to See Rajai Davis get the bulk of playing time this year over Colby Rasmus... My only concern here is fielding because we know Rasmus is the much better option defenesively. My point is we already have what Rasmus can give us on the team but nobody else offers what Davis has in terms of changing a game with his speed. Also he is a career .274 hitter I do believe and had an injury plagued down year last year but also hit .280 and over .300 the previous two seasons in Oakland... I'll admit there is just something about Rasmus I don't like. I agree that it was worth taking a chance on him with the trade where we gave up very little and will gladly eat my words if he lives up to his potential but how long of a leash will he get this season because he was absolutely brutal last year even before he hurt his wrist or hand or whatever. Maybe I'm way out to left field on this one you get to see the guys in Spring Training so what are your thoughts...

Chris McMillan, Marsvilles

 

A-I believe that Jays' outfield defence is one of manager John Farrell's biggest personal concerns at the start of '12 as a way to make this pitching rotation as good as it can be...or at least to give them the opportunity to prove what they can truly do when given outfield support. Recall last season's start with an opening day injury to Rajai Davis that brought into play Juan Rivera and Corey Patterson on a daily basis until the Rasmus deal. Even when Davis returned, it was not contributing to an optimum defensive situation. His major defensive asset is being able to outrun his mistakes.

Farrell loves Davis off the bench. As a fourth outfielder, Farrell is guaranteed that in the 8th or 9th inning  Davis can be available as a weapon to disrupt pitchers and maybe advance to scoring position in a close game. If he's in the starting lineup, you can't always choose when he comes up or reaches first base in a close game to become “the disruptor.” As a player off the bench, you can always make that decision. Davis will get a number of opportunities to start games in centre field against tough lefthanders or when Rasmus is a little nicked up or needs a rest. Davis is now in his best role, the one that was described for him when he was first acquired, even before Vernon Wells was dealt to the Angels.

 

 

Q-Dear Richard,

I have had just about enough of Adam Lind, especially against left handed pitching. Is there any indication that if his hitting is not improved by the all star break that we will see David Cooper, Mike McDade, or Yan Gomes in that position.

Craig Armstrong, Toronto

 

A-The first step would be to move Lind out of the cleanup role as the first line of protection for Jose Bautista. That move down the order is already going to happen against lefthanders, with Bautista, Encarnacion and Lawrie going 3-4-5 in the platoon lineup. Whether Lind bats down in the order or gets the day off vs. lefties will be the only early question. Against right-handers, Lind came on late in the spring and despite being sidelined briefly with back woes, began swinging the bat much better. He will be given plenty of rope against right-handers, which is the majority. If Lind is DL'd, Cooper would be the first player called up and Encarnacion would likely get the majority of reps at first base. The only way Yan Gomes sees the majors is as a backup catcher if Jeff Mathis is forced to the DL. 

 

 

Q-Greetings Richard,

I just finished reading your Q&A from Feb 23 and would like to respond to one of your comments. You had respond to a listener at the time that Encarnacion should be the full-time DH and nothing but that beg to disagree with you but have you ever looked at his career statistics? They are horrid! Have a look at his career statistics from Baseball-Reference.com and you will see a player who has never had more than 3 good months out of six each year during his 7 years in the Majors. If he was a pitcher I would consider him to be the Josh Towers or Jo-jo Reyes from the world of DH's or crap infielders. Please take the time and look then explain to me why you would consider him for something full-time? FYI yes it is friggin cold here in the really far south. I get to have a 20 month straight of winter....Fun Wow!!

Petr Von Rolt, The South Pole Station.

 

A-Our views on this issue are polar opposite. You likely would have been opposed to giving Jose Bautista the opportunity to play every day back in 2010 because of his previous history. Look what you would have missed out on. I look at Encarnacion's splits last season between right-handed and left-handed pitching and his offensive performance as a DH and first baseman compared to his horrible stats as a third baseman, which is at least understandable because three days before the start of the '11 season he was parachuted into the hot corner so that Bautista could move back to right. Watching Edwin swing the bat every day last year, the potential always shone through in terms of power and hitting the ball hard. He is a free agent at the end of the season and is in the right place to succeed as a fulltime DH and reserve at first base, third base and in left field. He can be a very useful player.   

 

 

Q-Dear Richard,

The Jays are reluctant to send their best young pitchers to Las Vegas for fear of hurting their confidence because the PCL is such a hitters' league. However, wouldn't it make sense to at least send their College grads (e.g. Jenkins and McGuire) to Las Vegas to see if they can handle the pressure? In any case, they better find a new AAA site soon since within a year or two they have far too many good young arms to leave them all at AA .

Thanks,

Bill Reynolds, Toronto

 

A-I agree. I'm not so sure they need to send Jenkins and McGuire to Vegas to see how they handle pitching inside a pinball machine, but I get your point. The future problem is they do have too many good young starting pitchers coming up from behind to maintain the same policy of Double-A or bust. The Vegas affiliate contract is expiring at the end of the year and they would love to find a place like Buffalo that is closer to T-O and easier on starting pitchers. Maybe Ottawa, but the International League would need to transfer an existing franchise or else add two teams. The Jays don't own their affiliates. Once again this year, they have tried to avoid exposing their young studs to Sin City, with Jenkins, Carreno, Hutchison and McGuire all starting out in the forests of New Hampshire. Meanwhile, at Vegas are guys like Nelson Figueroa, Tim Redding, Scott Richmond and, likely, Aaron Laffey.

 

 

Q-Hi Richard,

I totally understand the concept of options on players and making sure they are managed properly so talent isn't needlessly lost. Where I have trouble with AA on this is when he has those conversations with players and tells them that if they were out of options and fighting for a job, they have the inside track. I think that does a disservice to players with options and also doesn't motivate the ones without options. I know that in the real world where you and I work, a strategy like that wouldn't fly. Whatever happened to putting the best team you have out there? If a player is out of options and there is no place for him, then trade/cut him so that 1) you have the best team on the field, 2) you make the player who worked the hardest to win the job happy 3) you give the player without options another chance to catch on with another team. Your thoughts?

Mat Saturn, Toronto

 

A-If you take the uniqueness of the messages in baseball out of the equation, there is not much to criticize about sitting your employees down and outlining for them a no-holds-barred summary of where they stand professionally. The CBA's system of “minor-league options” doesn't exist in many other occupations. For instance, The Star would never sit me down in January and decide that if there was no room on the baseball beat they might send me to, say, the Oakville Beaver for more seasoning. Just because Anthopoulos and manager John Farrell told the players where they stood prior to camp did not guarantee them jobs. They still had to work hard in the spring to win the position, while the guys behind them on the depth chart had to work just as hard to maintain their “we got next” status. It's those kids that come to spring training and think they have a chance with a good spring training, it's those kids that are devastated by their demotions that need to be spoken to realistically at the start of camp. If anyone actually stops working hard because they know where they stand, you don't want them.

 

 

Q-Hey Richard,

Me, Adam Lind, and Kelly Johnson have a bet going for who you think has the best shot at winning comeback player of the year this year based on what you've seen at spring training. It is me right?

Colby Rasmus, Toronto courtesy of M. Siddall

 

A-Sure Colby, but in most cases there has to have been one really, really good year in your past to come back to in order to be a comeback candidate. Maybe you can be a breakout candidate instead.

 

 

Jays mailbag: Where will Adeiny Hechavarria be in 2012?

It's been an interesting spring training with the Jays widely touted as the up and coming team in the AL East by many gushing U.S. media sources.

Alex Anthopoulos tried over the winter to add helpful-to-the-winning-cause pieces – not Prince Fielder and Yu Darvish – but he was thwarted and is now going with the hand that he has been dealt. That hand, in fact, is deep in talented young prospects, which is the big reason why the Jays are one of the top teams in the Grapefruit League standings.

Their minor-league hitters are mounting late comebacks and their minor-league pitchers are nailing down the final victories. Opening Day is April 5 in Cleveland. The home opener on April 9 vs. the Red Sox and that game has already been sold out. Every team is tied and life is good. On to the mailbag.  

Q-Hi Richard,

Please explain the logic of Ben Francisco. His stats do not impress. He is unlikely to play a significant part of the Jays plans. The organization clearly thinks that Snider and Thames have serious upside, and yet one of them is going to get sent down while Francisco is handed a roster spot uncontested.

I understand that young guys need playing time, yadda, yadda, yadda. But sending Snider back down to beat up on AAA pitching in Vegas is not going to help him at this stage. I'd much rather keep Snider and Thames and get creative about fitting them in -- parsing some DH at bats from Encarnacion against righties, for example. Maybe platoon them in left a bit. Providing a strong left-handed bat on the bench for late innings. To my mind Francisco brings zilch. What am I missing?

Kevin S., Peterborough

A-I agree with you that both Travis Snider and Eric Thames are better players in the long and short run than Francisco. However, in speaking with Anthopoulos this spring it's clear that existing minor-league options on the contract, the ability to send down and bring players back up without waivers, for his players is a very important part of the Jays equation. Snider has one option left and Thames has two. The fact is if one of the two batted right-handed, there might be a chance to platoon or partially platoon, but there is never enough at-bats out there when you're talking three players for two spots.

I don't think Francisco's roster spot is 100-per cent guaranteed all year, but he is an experienced major-league asset and AA doesn't like to just give away his assets unnecessarily. The Jays role is a limited one for Francisco. Play a little defence in left if it's Thames that wins the position. Start occasionally in left or right to give the starter a day off. Maybe pinch hit against lefthanders late in a game –- although how effectively is in question. Snider and Thames are both major-league players. This is a case where options are not your friend.

RELATED: Blue Jays emerging rotation key to contending 

Q-Hi Richard,

Travis Snider has been hitting a lot of home runs this spring, but striking out a lot too. Last year Rajai Davis led the team in home runs and he didn't carry that into the regular season. Am I still the front-runner to head north with the Jays?

Eric Thames, Toronto courtesy of M.Siddall

A-Yes Eric you are the front runner and thank you for pointing out the obvious. Sheesh!

Q-Any chance Ben Francisco would be released to free up another spot? What is his contract status, and is his 2012 contract guaranteed?

Thanx,

J. M. ("Mel") Norton, Burlington, ON

A-Francisco has a one-year deal with 4-plus years of major-league service. Francisco is 30-years-old and fills a role right now that might be deemed superfluous by the end of the season. He is a right-hand outfield bat and a defender at the corners. The cost is reasonable. 

Q-Dear Richard,

I've been watching baseball over 50 years. Please tell me why The Jays bring in a demonstrable failure like Rick VandenHurk, following the tradition of bringing in a Brian Tallet (twice!), and other dreck named Bullington, Burres, Reyes, Eveland 
et al. It was obvious these washouts would fail in Toronto. What a waste of time, effort and money bringing these guys to a pitching-rich organization. I know clubs need “filler " at AAA. This seems to be an affliction AA has inherited from Mr. Ricciardi. 
What am I missing ? You can't create a silk purse, etc.....

Thanks,

Selby Martin, Toronto

A-I think your negative reaction is a little strong to the former presence of Mr. VandenHurk, claimed on waivers by the Indians, and other non-roster spring training invitees of the past. Oh, and don't forget John Thomson, Tomo Ohka and the  less-talented Zambrano -- Victor.

No, the art of signing other teams' released free agents during the winter and then inviting them to your spring training is a time-honoured tradition, usually when you're not quite sure about the back end of your five-man rotation. It's not that expensive an exercise, really, with no cash-money guaranteed if a player is in camp on a minor-league deal. You're just paying his meal money and housing expenses. If the pitcher does make your staff, it's usually for a million dollars or less.

I don't think Jo-Jo Reyes should be included in your group, even though it did not end well for the plucky left-hander. He was, in fact, part of the trade that brought Yunel Escobar to the Jays. Anthopoulos believed that he saw something major league in Reyes. In fact, this spring it seemed like the Jays actually brought in fewer such pitchers as starters. Aaron Laffey and VandenHurk were really the only two with any shot as major-leaguers. This is an internal signal that they feel any extra needs can be filled internally by talented kids that they have developed. Next year will see fewer invitees.

Q-Being a Blue Jays fan all my life, it saddens me to see how the fanfare surrounding the team has diminished over the years. How can the Jays get back to the glory years (1989-1994) when they sold out all their home games and broke the 4 million mark for home games attended in a season?

I think they need to buy some great players to make this team a true contender now. We've been waiting 20 years for a post-season game. Give the city something to cheer about. We certainly can't count on the Leafs for that!

Dean Brunton, Toronto

A-Anthopoulos' belief is that once the Jays reach the anticipated position where they are contending for one of the three playoff spots available – AL East winner or one of two wild cards – for the first time, the theory is that the Jays' contending status will be sustainable for many years to come because of the depth of their farm system. It's a solid philosophy, but hard to stay patient for a fan-base that has been waiting 18 years for a return visit to the playoffs since the World Series years.

Wandering the Mattick centre during the Jays' mini-camp in February, the young talent that was on display there was amazing. In fact there are some Venezuelan and Dominican kids not at that camp that have not yet reached the Baseball America radar because they are too young -- 16-17-years-old. But there are some talented kids – mostly position players -- that need to fill out physically and are 5-6 years away from the majors. The Jays arrived at this point being one of two or three teams that took advantage the last two years to stock up on international free agents, mostly from the Caribbean, and draft choices before the new CBA levelled the playing field with financial restrictions that were rammed through and help the lazy scouting teams.

Throwing money at major-league free agents is rolling the dice, paying for past accomplishments, that rarely works unless you are already building through the farm and have a couple of holes that need filling. The formula of two big ticket free agent stars that you have just outbid someone for surrounded by four iffy major-leaguers at starting positions is not a winning formula. The Jays' reasoning this past winter was more about trading for a starting pitcher. AA tried that route, but it did not work out for various reasons. Without that experienced young starter, they still have a chance to contend, but too many things need to go exactly right. 

Q-Hi Richard,

Can you tell me if Dustin McGowan will be on an innings limit this season?

thanks,

Marcus Heinrichs, Stouffville

A-McGowan, even if he remains healthy all year, will be on a pitch limit of around 150 innings. The formula actually relies more on pitch count, but at the top end of pitch count that assumes 20 pitches per inning – which is high – or about 3000 pitches. The Jays are already thinking ahead in the case of McGowan. They have decided that young Drew Hutchison will himself be on an innings count. They have Hutch starting the year restricted to 2-3 inning starts so that by August, he will have enough innings left in his personal gas tank that he could possibly come up and finish off McGowan's fifth starter role for the Jays. However, if something was to happen to McGowan early on and he can't make it that far into the season for whatever reason, they have Aaron Laffey as a non-roster possibility, or Kyle Drabek, Chad Jenkins and Deck McGuire ready to go and stretched out. But they will ride McGowan as far as he can physically carry them to a max of 150 innings.

Q-Richard,

With Hechavarria seeming to have solid at bats during spring training could you see him pushing Jays management getting him into the every day lineup this season? I wouldn't think Kelly Johnson has a great amount of trade value, but if he was packaged with Snider or Thames, do you think that would net the Jays a pitcher like, G. Floyd? If not what level of pitcher could a package starting with those players be able to net?

Scott Cochrane, Niagara-on-the-Lake

A-Adeiny Hechavarria has impressed everyone this spring, but he still needs his Triple-A at-bats in Las Vegas. The plan would be as the season goes along that is there is a disablement to either Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson, that Hechavarria would come up and fill in as the starter at that position, while the backup at the major-league level – presumably Omar Vizquel – remains the backup. But by next year, Hechavarria will be on his last option and after the 2013 season, he needs to make the Jays to stay or someone will definitely claim him on waivers. They would probably like to have Hechavarria start the 2013 season as a major-leaguer after a year at Vegas and thus still have one option left. The decision would then come of how to align Hechavarria and Escobar in the middle infield.

Johnson this year would have zero trade value because he was a free agent and nobody made him significant offers the, so why would they look to him now when they have to give up a player. The White Sox want a lot more than that for Gavin Floyd. That's why he's still a Chisox.  

Q-Mr. Griffin,

There is much discussion in regards to the Jays lack of a 4th or 5th starter. Who might the Jays GM be targeting? Also, will we ever see Scott Richmond at the major league level again?

Gord Robertson, Oakville

A-Right now, Brett Cecil, Henderson Alvarez and Dustin McGowan are the 3-4-5 guys. During the winter the Jays made a run at, or else considered and rejected, all the familiar names that were eventually dealt, like Mat Latos, Gio Gonzalez and Michael Pineda, but nothing happened so the Jays are staying in-house for their rotation answers. It's a tough call for the Jays with those final three guys that combined for just five major-league wins in '11. The rule of thumb is you need about 65 wins out of your rotation to contend for the post-season. Jays' starters were 51-61 a year ago, with a 4.55 ERA. The five guys that are starting the year in the Jays '12 rotation combined for a 31-38 record a year ago. Do the math. Tough to make up those wins.

As for Scott Richmond he is the ultimate minor-league warrior. I talked to him at the Team Canada-Jays game and he is healthy and understands that he must rock and roll at AAA-Las Vegas to stay ready in case he ever gets the call, or maybe another team has a need. He knew he was going to start in Vegas, but nothing in his baseball life has ever been given to him. He is the ultimate underdog story and we hope it turns out well. But if not, it won't be for a lack of trying.

Q-Hi Richard,

I've read in a few places about the 'great vibe' in the Jays clubhouse. I'm just wondering if you can comment on that? Does a good clubhouse translate into wins on the field? Do you think AA tried to create a clubhouse with good chemistry? Finally, fans like me are keen to know more about what the players are really like. Reporters get to see things that fans don't. I understand you have to be careful about what you can divulge, but what can you tell us about the Jays vibe and personalities? Any fried chicken and beer?

Robert Brander, Sydney, Australia

A-The Jays do have a good clubhouse. When the spring started there were 65 players in that clubhouse so it was kind of hard to get a read on what it would be like once it was pared down. But it tells you a lot when a veteran like Francisco Cordero, at 36-years-old and coming in as a free-agent, says that after three days in the clubhouse he felt like he had been there before, that he somehow was at home. The vibe in the clubhouse comes from the lack of cliques based on demographics. You're as likely to see Brett Lawrie over at Jose Bautista's locker, or Kyle Drabek and J.P. Arencibia with Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow sharing a laugh. Then there's the country boys, Jeff Mathis and Colby Rasmus. There's a lot of smiling and banter going on in the Jays' room, rather than slumped over brooding in front of lockers. Off-season social networking among the players has had a lot to do with the fact that when they show up at camp they are already involved in each other's lives. Good vibe going on.

However, that being said, it's a long season and once the season schedule starts, the reverse to your question happens. It won't be a good clubhouse that translates into wins. It will be wins that translates into a good clubhouse. AA has not been worried about building the clubhouse vibe, but he does focus on bringing good people, solid personalities into the organization. He is focusing on the individuals, but when you bring all those solid individuals together, the result is a good clubhouse. As for the chicken and beer question, after a KFC small bucket and a six-pack of Yuengling it's off to work for me.   

Q-Hey Richard,

Re: Jays AAA relocation -
 Has there ever been any discussion of having the AAA team in the GTA?
The fans seem to know about the Jays' prospects so presumably attendance would be good, plus there's such a big population in the region.

Thanks,

D'Arcy Draper, Richmond Hill

A-The fans in Toronto know as much about their own minor-league prospects as any fans in major-league baseball. In fact, I was listening to MLB radio on my satellite car radio on my drive to Kissimmee this spring when the co-host suggested that of all their MLB radio listeners they get more response on fan questions and polls from Jays fans than any other. He suggested it was a cult and there must be a secret handshake. Kind of funny, kind of flattering to Jays fans.

Which leads to the answer to your original question. Say there was a 15,000 seat stadium built somewhere at the corner of 401-and-whatever for the AAA-International League Jays. How embarrassing would it be on a given night for the real Jays to be out-drawn by their local farm team. No, the Jays need to build their major-league brand in Toronto before they can think of bringing in a second product. The Leafs and Marlies is not a good example, because the Leafs sell out every night.

Oh, by the way, the satellite radio is good for listening to MLB radio on those long drives to Jays' road games, but I think I was bamboozled. When I booked the car online, I added satellite radio for $100 for the 34 days. The guy in the parking lot took the zip-up bag and leaned into the front seat and hooked up the radio that sits on the dash and is harder to manipulate than a Rubik's Cube. I started the car and drove away and realized the car had a built in satellite radio. Hmm.

Q-Thanks for your blog, good reading. I was just viewing an article about DH in the NL. Best solution -

one, have somebody PH for the pitcher in both leagues, but leave the pitcher in the game if you still need him. Simple and effective.

 Two -- increase the roster to 27 (and the protected to 42) to cover the added guys needed to PH. Remember, PHs can only be used once. The union will love this, and that will get them onside. PHs are cheaper than DHs -- that'll get the owners onboard.

 But all of this won't happen, because it is too easy to do...

What do you think?

Dean Tudor, Toronto

A-The DH question will not be solved with any compromise. It's either DH or no DH and since every league in the world except the National League operates with the DH, I fear that will be the winner. I hate it because it will take away from a lot of the strategy that makes baseball so interesting to discuss sitting in the stands or the press box. The balance of more offence against more strategy is simple. For true baseball fans, the winner would be more strategy. But there are no fantasy baseball categories that include strategy, so the fix is in for the demise of nine-man baseball. However I already agree that with most teams carrying 12 pitchers these days that it's time to increase major-league rosters to 27 players.

Q-Richard,

I'm still drinking the AA Kool-aid despite a rather meek winter. Unlike other Toronto teams, you get the sense with the Jays that they're building the right way with high-end talent that they can either bring to Toronto or trade for the final parts. 

That being said, there's one big concern I have with the Jays ability to compete in 2013 (a more reasonable playoff goal). It seems our talent is lining up where Gose will be the starting CF; Hechavarria the starting SS and D'Arnaud the starting C. All 3 rookies, starting at the most critical defensive positions; right up the middle; trying to adjust to MLB life while making a playoff push. 
With 3 rookies at 3 key positions in 2013 won't it take until 2014 or 2015 until they and the team have matured together to compete?

David Major, Richmond Hill

A-I believe the Jays were indeed aggressive in trying to trade prospects for major-league players this winter, but AA's problem might be that most of his valuable minor-league prospects were still 2-3 years away and harder for other GMs and organizations to project than those from other organizations that may have been less talented in the long-term but more advanced in the now-term.

I see the question you're asking abut all those rookies at the same time. I can see Gose beginning his major-league career filling both the Rajai Davis and Ben Francisco role as the disruptor off the bench and as the defensive replacement and fill-in for occasional starts at all three outfield positions. As for D'Arnaud, the Giants won the 2010 World Series with rookie Buster Posey behind the plate. And Hechavarria will be 24 early in the 2013 season and his defence he brings will negate his rookie inexperience. That's not to say all three of those things will happen, but the Jays want to contend and will not give up that dream just for the sake of getting the three rookies into the lineup. Having Arencibia and D'Arnaud is a nice problem for the Jays to try and figure out.      

Q-Hey Richard,

Here's one for you:

 What are the odds we could blow-out the seldom-used 'Windows' restaurant in centre field and pop-in an open air beer garden? 

How sweet would it be to sit at some communal tables, sharing adult beverages, and shagging fly balls? 

Best seats in the house as far as I'm concerned. 

I can only assume that there is some rule prohibiting fans to be sat in dead centre field (distracting hitters - *insert "man in white" comment here*), but a man can dream,  no?

Thanks

A-I think that's a great idea, however considering the location in dead centre field in the batter's line of vision, you're right, there would have to be a dress code at the beer garden of nothing but men and women in black, with nothing but Guinness on tap and no drinking while a pitch is being delivered. Oh wait, that was the rule in the Red Sox clubhouse last year. However, really, if they took your concept and extended a concrete platform down the left field line towards but inside the foul pole that extended from the Level 300 overhang out towards the field and put picnic tables and umbrellas and servers in blue lederhosen and barmaids in Oktoberfest outfits, what a concept. But, of course Jays fans might be confused by the confusing concept of baseball AND October.

Q-I have no question or comment. I am a lifelong Pirate fan. I have no explanation.

Terry Olynik, St. Catharines

A-As they say in Quebec, “Quel dommage.”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Blue Jays mailbag and the free-agent leftovers team

There can be no doubt that spring training is to baseball fans what Pavlov was to dogs, where sight and sound causes each group to salivate with slobbery anticipation.

The start of another championship baseball season is less than a month away and the 30 rosters are pretty much settled, other than the few invited non-roster veteran free agents that will crack every 25-man roster. But, the fact is there are players still out there looking for work.

If you wanted to start an expansion team, just with the leftover free agents that remain unsigned, here's what that team might look like.

Sure, some of these guys are effectively, if forcibly, retired and, sure, some are battling injury, and, sure, the average age of the team would be the highest in baseball, but this is what the leftover 25-man free agent team would look like:

C-Pudge Rodriguez, Ramon Castro.

1B-Derrek Lee, Ross Gload.

2B-Felipe Lopez, Aaron Miles.

3B-Wes Helms.

SS-Miguel Tejada.

OF-Johnny Damon, Marcus Thames, Xavier Nady, J.D. Drew, Magglio Ordonez.

DH-Vladimir Guerrero, Hideki Matsui.

SP-Roy Oswalt, Javy Vazquez, Brandon Webb, John Garland, Chris Young, Scott Kazmir.

RP-Mike Gonzalez, Damaso Marte, Sergio Mitre, Doug Davis, Michael Wuertz, Arthur Rhodes.

Note: We could have considered Jose Canseco for an outfield spot, but he was just thrown out of the AAA-Mexican League on suspicion of excess levels of testosterone. That's tough to do. It's like being thrown out of Clown College because your feet are too big.

I will admit, the timing of the baseball mailbag has become inconsistent, but I am going to try and have it online on either Thursday or Friday of every week as the season moves forward. So keep those questions, comments and critiques coming in. On to the mailbag.

Q-Mr. Griffin,

I am getting quite angry at the fans who are mad that the Jays didn't spend like the Yankees or the Red Sox this offseason. Why should Alex Anthopoulos let the way the Yanks and BoSox do business affect the way he does his? Let them give out the 8- to 10-year contracts, I don't care. AA has done a magnificent job getting high-ceiling players and building a strong young core for the future. It worked for Tampa Bay. Let New York and Boston knock each other out. They won't see us coming.

Darryl Mulder, Vineland

A-Oh, don't suggest that last part. Everyone now sees the Jays coming. Toronto is never going to sneak up on anyone. However, when you say the Jays “didn't spend like the Yankees or the Red Sox this offseason” that's a preconception steeped in history but with little to do re the reality of this past winter.

The Yankees had made little impact, except for a one-year deal to starter Hiroki Kuroda, until the Michael Pineda trade, a four-player swap with the M's, sending monster catching prospect Jesus Montero the other way. That was a refreshing, old-time baseball trade, with four controllable contracts involved. Following that, the Yankees had to deal A.J. Burnett to the Pirates in order to clear the $13 million they required to add free agents Raul Ibanez as DH and Eric Chavez as a backup corner guy. That's certainly not the way the old-time Yankees did business, but the truth is they're trying to get below the $189 million luxury tax threshold by 2014.

As for the Red Sox, they were heralded as the greatest Red Sox team ever before the start of last year. Not much has changed with that roster. They had four great months and two crappy months to knock them out of the playoffs, but they won 90 games. Did they need to make a lot of off-season moves? They lost Jonathan Papelbon early on but made up for it with nice, old-time baseball trades of their own with the A's to get Andrew Bailey and with the Astros for Mark Melancon. The lost Jason Varitek and added Kelly Shoppach. There was not a lot of overspending going on in Beantown.

As for the Jays, the bleating from the bleachers regarding AA not spending on free agency this winter mostly surrounded two men, Prince Fielder and Yu Darvish. In the case of Fielder, two elements came into play, the fact that he wanted a long-term deal like Albert Pujols and the fact that president Paul Beeston believes you need to win first to attract that type of free agent to your city, otherwise your bid is just being used to up the ante for other clubs. In the case of Darvish, the posting fee was not the issue, it was the fact that they found out he wanted six years to carry him into his free agent year and the Jays policy is five, max. The dollars on the contract were not an issue, either – at one time.

Q-It's hard to believe that Anthopoulos has only been at the helm for two years, isn't it? It feels like so much longer. Perhaps we've been rushing him just a bit? It took Gillick how long to make the playoffs? it took Dombrowski how long to make the playoffs with the Tigers? (and they didn't have to compete in the AL East), surely we can cut Alex a little bit of slack?

Rob Buckler, Oshawa

A-It does feel like Alex has been there a very long time. Through the mists of time, it seems the only J.P. that I have any clear recollection of now is Arencibia. Are we rushing Anthopoulos? No.

It's not as if he took over a team of donkeys and had to shape them into Kentucky Derby favourites. The Jays have never really dropped below mediocre since the late '90s, but unfortunately there were years during that time they were propped up just to remain mediocre instead of letting the forces of nature sink them lower, followed by the forces of any strong prospects from down on the farm taking them over the top. For years prior to Anthopoulos, it seemed the financial resources of ownership were spent on the immediate needs of the major-league club rather than drafting and on international free agency. That turn in emphasis has turned the organization around to the point where even if they had reached out this winter for one prime talent like Mat Latos and traded a package of prospects to help the major league team win right now, there would still be enough farm depth remaining wherein winning can remain sustainable for years to come. That is AA's mantra.

As for Gillick, he took an expansion Jays team in '77 and reached the playoffs in his ninth year. But that's an expansion team where they were starting off with no farm system and other team's dregs. Sure, the Marlins and Diamondbacks both did it quicker, but baseball gave them three years before they played a game to build a farm system and changed the draft rules so they had access to better players. As far as Dombrowski in Detroit, he took over as president in '03, then bottomed out with one of the worst records in MLB history, returning the Tigers to the World Series in his fourth year there. Yes, this is just Alex's third season in Toronto, but his starting point was a lot better than the '03 Tigers.

Q-Hi Richard,

My problem with your some of your comments about the Jays' offseason moves are in the implication that AA losing out on trade bids for Latos/Gonzalez/Pineda and the posting for Darvish mean that he didn't understand or underestimated the market.

 In the case of the trades, first you need to have the players that that team desires (which Alex can't control).

 And in all the cases, it seems to me the issue is that Alex made the determination "this is what that player is worth TO US" more so than their market value. If someone else is willing to pay more, that's fine. But you've implied Alex should adjust his approach, and to me, if he's determined a player is not worth the asking price, he shouldn't adjust just because other GMs have lost their minds.

Mark Acheson, London

A-Alex really does need to slightly adjust the philosophy that he came to the job with and I believe he is going to. The changes may be something that the media and the public don't really see, but he did miss out on properly gauging the market this winter and adjustments are already being made, internally.

In the case of missed trade opportunities this offseason, the Jays definitely had the richness of assets to deal with anyone. They had the young prospects to entice any team that was looking to unload an arbitration-eligible pitcher as he entered his prime earning years -- guys like Mat Latos and Gio Gonzalez. However, part of Anthopoulos' trade strategy ever since he arrived is to pinpoint a player like Latos, to then call the other GM and say “What would it take to get Mat Latos from you?” AA believes that he is placing the onus on a trade partner to name names and potentially make a mistake, giving the Jays what they will consider a great deal. If the GM asks for too much, he merely says no and maybe substitutes a lesser talent to see if that flies.

That's a great strategy if you are the only team that other GM is speaking to, but obviously in the case of Latos and Gonzalez, there were others. Now we can assume Reds' GM Walt Jocketty had gone to the Padres and gave them a solid list of four players that included Yonder Alonso and Edison Volquez. Padres GM Josh Byrnes could then skip the whole guessing game with AA and go straight for the attractive Reds package – which, by the way, likely surprised Anthopoulos at the amount of talent heading to the west coast. I believe if Alex had been more aggressive for Latos, maybe starting at the November GM meetings, naming names to Byrnes and with the stockpile of real talent he has available, that they could have beat the Reds to Latos and set the standard for the rest of the winter.

The Latos deal set the bar high for future trades involving arb-eligible top-drawer starters like Gonzalez. At that point, AA may have believed it was too much to give, especially after his violent internal reaction of near-nausea after he dealt one of his prized prospects Nestor Molina to the ChiSox for Sergio Santos. He said it was one of the hardest things he's done and seemingly affected the rest of his winter.

As for Pineda, the M's reportedly asked for Brett Lawrie. I wouldn't do that either, so there's no issue there. With Darvish, the dilemma was the sixth year guaranteed on the contract that the agents had quietly let it be known would be required. Dice-K got five years from Boston, but six for Darvish takes him into free-agency and another lucrative contract. Six years also put him on the Jays' no-can-do list. 

Q-"As for the outfield configuration of the ballpark, maybe the Jays could change the current cookie-cutter feel by adding something to make the stadium more immediately identifiable as downtown Toronto. Maybe they could build a high-rise condo in centre field."

Easily your funniest comment in 2012! (VERY funny)

Bill L, Toronto

A-Thank you. I know I keep me amused.

Q-Why is it you think AA should have pursued high-priced free agents this winter when it likely would not have been enough to push the Jays into the playoffs? Can we call J. P. Ricciardi and ask him how that worked for him?

Kyle Todt, Waterloo

A-I can guarantee that I did not often write this winter that AA should have pursued high-priced free agents. I liked left-hander Mark Buehrle early on because he was a good fit for what they needed at the top end of the rotation. I did also approve of what looked like an aggressive bid for Darvish that never panned out because of his desire for a six-year deal. Darvish comes at a relatively modest $56 million for six years if you consider the posting fee to Nippon Ham as an investment not related to payroll.

As for Prince Fielder, C.J. Wilson and other high-priced free agents that were out there this winter, I agreed wholeheartedly with Alex in not pursuing those players and was at times criticized for that stance. The problem with former GM Ricciardi's approach from '02 to '09 is that he was signing outside free agents, that at the time were relatively expensive, when the rest of the Jays' team was not yet ready-for-prime-time and the farm system remained shallow. He was plugging two holes in the dam when there were five that needed his attention. It's not J.P.'s fault, but where he is right now, the question of “How's it working for him?” can sadly be summarized in three words – New York Mets. 

Q-Hey Richard,

With the first three rotation slots filled by Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, and Brett Cecil. Who do you see taking the final two slots? I know it's still early to make such a prediction, but with the tremendous upside Kyle Drabek has and the material Dustin McGowan has along with Farrell's support. I know Henderson Alvarez and Drew Hutchison are also strong contenders for the slots too.

Anthony Simms, Toronto

A-The problem for all these guys you mention – Drabek, McGowan, Alvarez and Hutchison – is that they're like guys lying on their surfboards waiting for their chance at a nice ride on a big wave. But way out on the horizon is forming one of those big tidal wave, tsunami type things and as they turn to look out in the distance they can see other guys riding towards them on that bigger wave, guys like Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris, Justin Nicolino and Adonys Cardona. The advice to Drabek, McGowan, Alvarez and Hutchison? You better find your wave soon, because these other guys are coming fast to swamp you. With that “Griff's Fable” out of the way, here's a right-now evaluation.

After the Top 3 starters, in my mind, the current pecking order would be: 4-Alvarez, 5-McGowan, 6-Aaron Laffey, 7-Hutchison; 8-Drabek, 9-Chad Jenkins, 10-Deck McGuire. The rest of the youngsters are struggling for position on the Big Wave out on the horizon. When it arrives, look out.

Q-Hey Richard,

Is this the last season for a AAA franchise in Las Vegas, Nev.? This was a poor option, but really the only option as the BJs wore out their welcome in Syracuse. Has not having a better AAA option hampered the development of the kids coming up?

Dean Germano, Redding, CA

A-My guess at this time is that the organization's deep down desire would be that this is the final season of the Jays farm team in Las Vegas. It's a pinball game out there. The Jays can't send their best young pitchers there without risking deep cuts to their psyche from the inflated ERAs of a Triple-A league built around hitting. Sure, it's great for AA-New Hampshire to always have great pitching but it's not the standard way that players rise to the major leagues without a significant stop at Triple-A.

The Jays never really wanted to leave Syracuse, but the Chiefs ownership had been suffering from benign neglect by the previous regime and tossed them out. The Jays wanted Buffalo, but Buffalo wanted the Mets. The contract with Vegas ends this year, but they need to find another city that is closer to Toronto and plays real baseball, treating pitchers fairly. Of course, just as they did with Vancouver in short-season A-ball, Anthopoulos and Beeston would favour a Canadian city. Ottawa is hot for a AA-Eastern League franchise but the Jays are very happy in the woods of New Hampshire. 

Q-I'm really digging it. Definitely a Modern spin on the Retro logo. Trying to give it an edgier look without Going TOO hard like the futuristic angry bird we've had for the last few years. I’m also really digging the Strength of the Blue. It's Rich like the pride of Toronto. Furthermore, even greater emphasis on the leaf. Not being afraid to let you know that we're from Canada and we're proud.

Mary Jo, St. Stephens

A-The difference in the new logo, the new look, the Blue look, shows up nicely at spring training. Used to be you would look up from typing in the press box and the team with the black jerseys was hitting and the team with the black jerseys was in the field. Now there are no such issues as the Jays are back to where they belong. Try purchasing the new Wind Jacket as a spring wardrobe basic. Really nice.

Q-Listening to the Expos in 1982 one of Dave van Horne's most common phrases seemed to be '...just out of Speier's reach and into centre field'. A good shortstop unfortunately past his best. Do you think there's a danger that the Jays will play Vizquel and suffer similar consequences?

Tony Bullen, Crail, Scotland

A-I do remember those Chris Speier days, but the difference is that Speier never had great range or quickness. He depended on reading hitters, knowing what his pitchers were about to throw and cheating to that spot. There comes a time when even positioning can't make up for limited range. For a Gold Glove Hall-of-Famer like Vizquel, he may now have to do more cheating than he did in the past, but he still will have more quickness and range than Chris Speier ever had. Besides, Vizquel, should he make the team, will never have to start more than three days in a row. If there is any significant injury to Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson, the Vegas pipeline is ready to feed recent U.S. citizen Adeiny Hechavarria to Toronto for the duration of any disablement at either middle-infield position.  

Q-Hi Richard,

Great to see Tony Fernandez back in the game, but why is it with the Rangers and what's he going to do for them as a "special assistant"?

 As one of just five players in the Jays hall of fame (oops..."level of excellence"), seems to me he ought to have had a standing invitation to work with the team if/when he wanted to get back in the game.

 Did the Jays drop the ball here or does Tony have a special relationship with someone over at the Rangers?

Jab Along, Hong Kong

A-There is no rift between Tony Fernandez and the Jays. He seems always available and in town when there is a special event held surrounding nostalgia and a Jays home game at the stadium. The Jays already have senior advisors in Roberto Alomar and Cito Gaston. My understanding is Tony has been busy taking care of his family and in studying to become a religious minister. He has accomplished that. The Rangers connection is not clear to me, however in their press release they did emphasize the religious degrees and that he is an ordained minister. It's only an uneducated guess on my part, but perhaps having someone around like Tony as an assistant to Daniels with both a successful baseball career and a spiritual side might help the Rangers with the ever-broadening issues of Josh Hamilton.  

Jays mailbag: Travis Snider = Eric Hinske? Plus more on Ryan Braun

 

It seems the lifting of Ryan Braun's 50-game suspension via the appeal process has not solved anything in baseball's drug-testing conundrum -– except, of course, for the Brewers.

Baseball's reaction was very unusual with Rob Manfred issuing a statement saying that MLB “vehemently disagrees” with the ruling. That in itself is a head scratcher. Why not just quietly accept the decision and move on. It's only the first, maybe the second time they have lost in appeal. Definitely the first time it has been made public. But it's part of the CBA and it doesn't say anywhere that baseball has to win.

Baseball did its due diligence in the process. Ryan Braun, one of the biggest stars in the game, was caught by the testing and, as such, was given the same punishment as any fringe player that would have tested positive.

In the long term, not having Braun suspended is good for the game, especially with the young impressionable fans who look up to these guys and with the young baseball players who may now stay away from experimenting with performance enhancers. So why is the Commissioner's Office so vehemently opposed to the acquittal? There is no recourse for MLB to ask for another hearing.

Braun is reporting to camp and Braun will play on Opening Day. I'm sure deep down Bud Selig is very happy because the Brewers were his former team, Braun was a poster boy for everything good about the game and Selig takes every drug suspension personally.

Sure there are questions about the report that Braun's appeal was based on a technicality on the mishandling by testers of his urine specimen. But that simply means that in the minds of his defence team the most certain avenue of appeal was the mishandling aspect and does not mean he is admitting that the testing results were correct. But that is the assumption that people are making. It's almost like many people want Braun to be guilty, because then they can wag a finger at pro sports and say, “See, you're all cheaters and I'm never going back.”  The one thing that I have noticed in the time since the announcement was made is that players are bitter towards the media for creating this whole Braun circus. That too is misguided. On to the mailbag.    

Q-Hey Richard,

Last year at this time we heard how the off-season acquisitions to our bullpen were a strength heading into the 2011 season. They were supposed to be an area that our young rotation could lean on. This sounds very similar to the speech we are being given this year. I love the Sergio Santos trade and I actually do buy into the message that is being pitched. My problem is that I also bought into that message last year. I was wondering if you had a similar optimism about our pen last year and why we should believe that the pen will actually work properly this year?

Mike S., Toronto

A-Of course, we all know that this time with regards to baseball, the start of spring training is always supposed to be about hope. It doesn't matter what the organization is or its recent history has been, there's reason for optimism even in Pittsburgh. The fact is that the Jays' bullpen last season breaking camp had a chance to be pretty good. But stuff happens.

Marc Rzepczynski was to be the next Scott Downs, a specialty left-hander that could eat innings. Zep got traded. Carlos Villanueva was an excellent middle reliever, but with injuries and failures in the rotations he volunteered and became a starter, finally wearing down. He's back in the role at which he's best. Octavio Dotel was as close to a right-handed specialist as you get, but that was not important with the middle of the pack Jays and, besides, he did not have the confidence of his manager. Dotel was traded and called it the least enjoyable stretch of his career. He now has a World Series ring. Jason Frasor was his reliable self, but was traded in July. He's back. Casey Janssen has steadily improved.

But the issue last season was with the two-headed closer, Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco. Manager Farrell knew Francisco was a traditionally slow starter, especially health-wise and so Rauch was handed the ball early on. But neither man could sustain and although Francisco finished strong, it was a closing mess. Farrell admits he did not handle his bullpen well. This year, Santos is the closer, with Frasor, Francisco Cordero, lefty Darren Oliver, Villanueva and Casey Janssen as experienced relievers that know their roles. Last year wasn't a bullpen deception, it just didn't work out, but that's sports.     

Q-Hello Richard,

Enjoy your columns but am getting a little of tired of your continual tagging of the Jays offseason as disappointing. You were quite (right) to rubbish the previous GM when he went against his own ideals and threw big money around just for the sake of it, so I'm confused why you seem to be encouraging Alex to veer off his long term plan. I am ecstatic that he's held firm this winter. As for being “disappointing” I've seen some writers class the Santos trade as the best trade of the winter. Time will tell, but it certainly filled a glaring need. 2012 should be an exciting year -- one only has to look at the 25-man roster this time last year to see how much better this Jays team should be.

Iain Carey, Manchester, U.K.

A-There was no encouraging Alex to veer off his long-term plan. All winter, I was quite adamant that he should not sign Prince Fielder, because it's likely by the end of the contract you'll be eating salary.

As for Darvish, the AA philosophy is to acquire young, controllable players with an upside. Darvish fits that philosophy in that he is major-league ready at 25-years-old and is under team control for the next six years. Plus, he can help you to the next level. The posting fee should be seen as an investment, while the player's salary is salary.

The disappointment for the offseason stems from AA's own words at the end of the season wherein he stated that his offseason goals were to upgrade the bullpen, find a closer, obtain another power bat and find a top of the rotation starter, preferably through trade. He did the bullpen and the closer, but failed at the two other stated goals.

But overall, AA's three years have been very different than the previous GM in that Alex has stayed the course and not been swayed by the W-L record of the previous year to go for it with short-term veterans just off of an above-.500 finish. Plus, AA has invested heavily in the draft and international scouting which has set him up for sustainability once he decides to bulk up at the major-league level, which he did not do right now.

 

Brett Lawrie and Travis Snider chat at the Blue Jays training facility Thursday in Dunedin, Fla.

RENE JOHNSTON / TORONTO STAR

 

Q-Hi Richard,

Looking forward to the mailbag from you reporting from Dunedin. I just watched a small clip from Sportsnet about Travis Snider and Eric Thames "battling it out". Do you think the decision is already made? I believe Snider should be given a long last look at the major league level while Thames can improve his overall performance in the minors though I liked what he did last year. When Snider was first brought up, I thought of him as the next Carlos Delgado. I still believe that but I assume this is his last chance.
Where do you see Lawrie in the batting order for the first half and the second half of the season? Any projection of stats Richard?

Thank you and enjoy the weather down there!

Kam H., Richmond Hill

A-I think as in most things, there is a frontrunner, an early favourite in the minds of the Jays' brass that will make the decision. I believe at this stage, the odds-on favourite is Thames. But that does not mean the decision has been made.

All things being equal, given good health by both men, they bring very similar skills. I can see Thames winning the job because of what he showed last year and the Jays seeing that as a promising upside.

Snider has been used and abused and that might be an indicator of what they think of his immediate future. Strangely, of the two men, Snider would probably have more trade value for the Jays as the loser in the LF battle.

Someone suggested the other day that Snider reminded him of Eric Hinske and that's not a bad comparison. Hinske got bumped from third base by Corey Koskie and then got bumped off first base by Lyle Overbay. He has since been to the playoffs four times in five years with four different teams. Snider's success may have to come elsewhere. 

Q-Am I nuts in thinking that if these five things happen the Jays will make the playoffs?

a) Adam Lind needs to be an .850-.900 OPS guy (.350 OBP, .500 SLG)
. b) Colby Rasmus needs to put an .800-.850 OPS season like he did in 2010.
 c) Brett Cecil needs to pitch 200 innings, win 13-15 games and have a WHIP around 1.20.
 d) Travis Snider needs to hit 20 HRs which means he will be healthy and am able to stay with the big club all year.
 e) Kyle Drabek, Henderson Alvarez, Dustin McGowan have to combine to give the Jays 400 innings.

Jason Sinnarahjah, San Francisco

A-That's quite a wish list. I agree with you, the Lind and Rasmus OPS numbers, or something very similar, being necessary for Jays' success and pretty much Brett Cecil needing to log 200 innings and win 13-15 games. But in point d) Snider could be Thames, or anyone else that might play the third outfield spot. Snider at the moment is the best defensive option in left field, but that won't be enough to earn him the starting role. If the starting rotation bottom two spots could combine for 400 innings, that would be good. McGowan has much to prove about his health. Drabek has a lot to prove about his mental fortitude in order to be able to treat success and failure, personal highs and lows, those impostors just the same. But throw Drew Hutchison into that mix with Alvarez, Drabek and McGowan and 400 innings would be good. So much more needs to fall just right for the Jays to contend.

Q-Hello Richard,

I always enjoy reading your opinions on all things Blue Jays, and baseball in general. Although I am disappointed that the Jays did not acquire an additional 2/3 starter during the off season, I am still quite optimistic about them playing meaningful games in September. They may not make it to the playoffs, but I think it will be close. Am I being delusional?

Last year they won 81 games with a team that largely underperformed. With a young roster that should improve I don't believe that 88 -90 wins is unrealistic.

 Very few players had what could be considered very good/excellent seasons. These players would be Bautista, Escobar, Romero and Alvarez. Arencibia and Encarnacion were fine, but slight offensive upgrades are reasonable expectations. I haven't included Brett Lawrie as he only played 43 games. If he only comes close to last year's performance, then a full year of Brett Lawrie will be a huge upgrade at 3B.

 All other positions underperformed significantly.

I think that the bullpen is a bit better, plus John Farrell has stated that he will do a better job of handling his relievers this year. This area is a plus. Other than Romero and Alvarez, the starters underperformed, so I expect one or two more to step forward and help the rotation go deeper into games. Thereby reducing the pressure on the bullpen. As for the other positions CF, LF, 2B, 1B, all were very disappointing. The bench will be much better than what they started with last year. To expect improvement from at least some of these areas is reasonable, and should more than compensate if the performance of some of the above referenced positive players slip somewhat this year.

Is there any merit to this analysis?

 Thank you,

Kevin L.
, Mississauga

A-There is a wide range allowable in predicting how many games this 2012 Jays team will win. You could make arguments for anywhere from 75 to 95 wins and not be wrong. When you say many players “underperformed” you are talking production against expectations. Maybe the expectations for some of these guys was too high last year for their true abilities. Baseball is all about adjustments, so the only way to expect improved performance from year to year is for a major-league player to be intelligent enough to make the necessary adjustments to what a pitcher is trying to do to him or what hitters have learned about his pitching patterns. Just because you are a year older doesn't make you automatically a better player unless you have learned to make the necessary adjustments during that year.  

The other point is that this Jays roster is no longer a young roster. On the 40-man, there are just eight players that have realistic chances to make the opening day team that are 25-years-old or younger. They are Alvarez, Carreno, Drabek, Cecil, Lawrie, Rasmus, Snider and Thames. The average age of the Jays 40-man roster is 27.1 The average age of the Rangers is 27.3 and for the Red Sox it's 27.5.

The bullpen is experienced and that will help with a younger rotation that will likely all be under 30 again and Farrell has indeed promised to have players more aware of their roles and stay with them. Like I said, you could argue anywhere from 75-90 wins and not be ridiculed.

Q-Hey Richard,

I just read your piece on Johnny Mac/Omar. It was awesome. I have always heard how great Johnny Mac is and that he says those things about the Jays and Omar and Yunel really drives that home doesn't it? No real question here but I sure hope that the Jays will have him on staff when he retires. He is just such a positive guy to have around they would be fools not to.

Victor Tanti, Ottawa

A-John McDonald will make a great minor-league manager as soon as he is done with his playing career, but he will have options. He has friends and admirers all over baseball. He lives in New England and is a real family man, so the guess is that he will take a couple of years at home, maybe keeping a hand in it as a spring training instructor somewhere, before getting back in as a manager. 

Q-Hi Richard,

During the winter we were fortunate to have three members of the Blue Jays in Saskatoon for a sold out youth baseball fundraising dinner, Travis Snider, J.P. Arencibia and Brett Lawrie.

First, it was nice to see the organization backing up its position as Canada's team and having the players travel to cities they may not consider as big supporters. The truth is I see kids everywhere here wearing Blue Jays hats and the lineup for autographs after the dinner was proof of the interest the fans have. It was fascinating to be in the room with these athletes to observe them in a different situation than on TV.

I don't think Brett stopped talking to J.P. for one minute the whole evening! It got me wondering about Lawrie, his energy just sitting there was like it is on the field, endless. He seemed like a dog that just wanted to be let off the leash to run. Can you compare him to another past or present player with regard to his 'enthusiasm'? Could focus be an issue over a long season or through inevitable slumps?

Thanks,

Trevor Brown, Saskatoon

A-This Jays clubhouse, especially among the homegrown core players, is very close, year-round. They communicate on social networks all winter and the friendships flow seamlessly into the clubhouse at the start of the spring. Even Jose Bautista with his Joey Bats persona is a part of it.

As for Brett Lawrie, it's amazing how even handicapped by the short season in Canada, he showed up as prepared as anyone to play in the majors at the age of 21. His enthusiasm is part of what he brings to the table, but we do need to see how he reacts to slumps. His enthusiasm reminds me of a young Gary Carter who showed up for those early training camps of the Expos in the '70s and followed the veterans around like a kid, smiling and talking all the time. By the time he reached the majors he had already been nicknamed “The Kid”, by the major-league guys. Lawrie reminds me of this generation's Kid.

As for the Jays and Saskatoon, it's just another example of how Paul Beeston wants to re-establish the Jays' brand from coast-to-coast. They are doing it quite nicely.

Q-Hey Richard,

Why does the Toronto sports media seem to be so against the idea of the Jays doing a complete rebuild? The rebuild is still a few years away, and while jumping the gun could get us into the playoffs a year sooner, it could come at the cost of a title. If waiting means we get to be in the playoffs longer than one year, I'm all for waiting.

A-For my thoughts on rebuilding see Friday's column in The Star. But the fact of the matter is that the playoffs now and Jays sustainability in the future are not mutually exclusive because no one is asking the Jays to strip the farm system for short term pieces to win right now. That's the danger, that's the difference.

Q-Dear Grif,

Love the mailbag! Last year the Jays finished 6th in runs scored, but 18th in OBP. Given that Jose Bautista was pretty much a one-man wrecking crew last year, and it's generally accepted that a high OBP drives runs scored, what do you see the Jays doing to drive up that OBP this year? After Chad Mottola was called up last year, do you think Dwayne Murphy is on a short leash?

Gregory Stoen, Toronto

A-Certainly Dwayne Murphy made slight adjustments to his teaching philosophy of hitting after the departure of Cito Gaston and upon the arrival of John Farrell. Cito's philosophy is that the best pitch to hit in any at-bat could very well be the first one and that when you get it you should attack it.

Last season, the coaching staff tempered that with a desire to see more pitches and get an opposing pitcher deeper into a pitch count earlier in the game. They became more aware of situational hitting. As for Chad Mottola, the hitting coach at AAA-Las Vegas, every year the Jays reward one of their minor-league coaches with a promotion to the Jays in September. Mottola was the coach rewarded for his work with guys like Thames, Snider, Lawrie and David Cooper.

As the month of September wore on, Murphy and Mottola started to mesh in terms of what they are going to teach in '12. I don't think it was any signal that Murphy is on a short leash. I thought that maybe the Jays would do what the Rangers and Cardinals do in terms of having two hitting coaches on staff. But not yet. 

Q-Chapman Cespedes and Darvish

Could be on anyone's team
.

It made Paul and AA quite nervous

To lay out substantial long green.

So Darvish, Cespedes and Chapman

Went to Rangers and Reds and the A's

While fans in Toronto were wondering

How come it is never the Jays?

Peter Thomson, Elizabeth City, NC

A-Must have been a slow day in Elizabeth City.

Q-Hey Richard,

I want to know how good you believe the Jays BP can be this season. I have a tough time finding a better pen in the league than the Jays if they remain healthy and pitch at the high level they have proven they can in the past. Am I overrating what Santos, Cordero, Oliver and Janssen are capable of? What other teams would you add to the list of the top 3-5 pens in the MLB?

Thanks,

Josh Cymbalista, New York

A-I would not be so generous so early as to say Top 3 with the Jays bullpen. Santos has a lot to prove as a closer over a full season, while the primary lefty, Darren Oliver is 41-years-old. The Jays have much depth in the pen with the additions of Frasor and Francisco Cordero. Janssen and Villanueva are solid. That's where they earn their ranking -- depth. In all of MLB I would put the Jays in the Top 10 with a chance to move up. Other bullpens that remain impressive are the Braves, Giants, Yankees,  Tigers, Angels, Phillies, Brewers, Red Sox and Diamondbacks.  

Q-Richard,

With seeing the A's signing Yoenis Cespedes at 4 years, $36 million ($9 million per), why weren't the Jays in on him? With having him in the fold to play LF that would be one less big IF to worry about. All the scouting reports are that he is ready to step in and be able to play at a high level. With Cespedes on board the ability to trade Thames or Snider for a front-line starter would be more plausible. The flip side I guess would be AA is waiting to see if Thames and Snider can increase their trade value and flip one for a front line starter? A Jays fan not pleased to be back in the Great White North.

Scott Cochrane, Niagara-on-the-Lake

A-The Jays' modus operandi in terms of international free agents is to put a value on said player and not to chase if the bidding goes higher than that number they have in mind. Anthopoulos like to recall how they had a $25 million value on Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman and he had the go-ahead from ownership to go higher, but when the bidding reached $30 million he backed off. With the bidding on Cespedes at four years and $36 million, it was clearly more than Chapman and too rich for the Jays who have a couple of young outfielders in Gose and Marisnick that are in the same stratosphere of prospects as is the Cuban star. Plus they already have Thames, Snider and Colby Rasmus onboard at 25 and younger. Your suggestion of Thames or Snider for a frontline starter is never going to happen. 

Q-Hi Richard,

While I kind of understand where the Blue Jays are coming from in terms of their stance on signing free agents for more then 5 years, let me propose a scenario for you.
 Let's use Brett Lawrie as an example and say he turns out to be every bit as good as we all hope and want him to be. Let's say he turns out to be an annual all star and impact player, maybe even a future hall of famer, just for arguments sake.

 Let's assume he doesn't have any major injuries and is healthy come free agent time. 

What do you think the Blue Jays would do under this scenario if Lawrie was able to be on the open market and could sign anywhere and asks for an 8 year contract.  He would be in his late 20s at that time and obviously the face of the franchise. 

Do you think they would sign him to it or watch him walk away because of principles?  How would the fan base react to a "homegrown" free agent signing elsewhere?

 It's one thing not to sign an overweight Prince Fielder but your own guy?

 Thoughts?

David Morris, Thornhill

A-That's another good question. Lawrie if he stays on the roster, would be eligible for free agency following the 2017 season at the age of 28-years-old. That's the same age as Fielder is. The Jays are surely able to make adjustments in philosophy, but in the case of Fielder and even Darvish, they had already negotiated in good faith with Jose Bautista on a five-year deal and told him that's all they do. He agreed and signed and if he continues what he's been doing, that's a steal for the Jays. But I have a feeling that if the Jays change their philosophy it will be because of Lawrie. It's not like his free agent date will sneak up on them. As it approaches they will make sure they don't insist on a five-year deal with anyone and won't tell them “Hey, that's all we do.” The Jays will be prepared when the Lawrie moment arrives. By then, Beeston promises they will have been to the playoffs two or three times and who knows what other free agents will be wanting to play in Toronto blue. They used to not offer contracts longer than three years and that changed. Life is a series of adjustments and compromises.    

Q-Hello Richard,

I think the installation of a grass field at Rogers Centre would be an outstanding move. It would benefit current players, recruitment of free agents and it would improve the ambience at the stadium for the fan; essentially, the Jays would be transforming the stadium into a baseball park. In this spirit, do you think the Jays would consider other changes: i.e. altering the dimensions in the outfield to be more asymmetrical? The current configuration, in my mind evokes, the multi-purpose era of the 70s a little too much.

Thanks!

Rory Parisien, Montreal

A-The Rogers Centre just dumped the Bills exhibition game for next year and have one more Bills game on the current contract. Will they renew? I wouldn't. The Argos are still RC tenants but for how long? Grass and an all-dirt infield are most definitely the way to go at the Rogers Centre. You think the Rolling Stones care if they play a concert on grass? In fact they probably prefer it. As for the outfield configuration of the ballpark, maybe the Jays could change the current cookie-cutter feel by adding something to make the stadium more immediately identifiable as downtown Toronto. Maybe they could build a high-rise condo in centre field. 

Q-Thank you for your excellent article about Rusty Staub. I was raised in Quebec and was a die-hard Expo fan. I was at the Big O the night Rusty returned to that great ovation. I remember you as statistician for the Expos (a job I coveted) and the pleasure you got at the job. I moved to Toronto in 1985 and was thrilled when you started writing for the Star as I knew what a truly dedicated Expo and baseball fan you are.

Best of luck always.

Fred Braley, Markham

A-Thank you.

Mailbag: Spring training has changed but never loses its appeal

Tick-tick-tick. Spring training is drawing inexorably closer and we're definitely excited. Players are already heading down to Florida and Arizona to get ready, even though they haven't started collecting meal money from the team. Spending their own money at training camp? That's how you can tell they're excited.

The game has changed. Spring training used to be a lot different back in the old days. The money wasn't so good and players, even the stars, had to hold down real jobs in the off-season, so who had time to stay in shape. These days, the pitchers, especially the young kids, show up in camp and on the first day of pitchers and catchers are humping it up with 95-100 mph fastballs and unhittable curveballs. The Jays pitchers and catchers are on the field February 22 and, on the 25th, are joined by the full squad.

I recall back in the Expos' early years in '69-'71, they trained on a back field of the Braves complex in West Palm Beach before moving up the coast to their own digs in Daytona Beach. Catcher John Bateman had been drafted from the Astros in expansion. A leader, more than a player, he had a propensity to gain weight in the off-season and manager Gene Mauch would always have a date early in camp for a weigh-in. Every player had been given a mandatory weight to come to camp. It was a number concocted out of thin air by the late Joe Liscio, an old school trainer who liked to use a lot of mud to rub on injuries as his universal answer. Bateman after those early workouts, each day would squeeze into a rubber, skin diver's wet suit, XXL, and run laps until he had sweated off a few more pounds. He always made the weight. Bateman ended up catching for Eddie Feigner with The King and His Court touring softball team where there were no weigh-ins. This game has really changed. On to the mailbag.

Q-Hi Richard,

I am fascinated by the idea that the Rogers Centre's relatively new turf being replaced with natural grass. In your opinion, how serious was BJ Management and ownership about this? If it did, is the theory that it improves the prospect of getting more seasoned free-agents who are worried about injuries beign aggravated by turf? Does it change the types of players being selected and developed in the minors? Does it change the atmosphere of home games at the Dome?

Dean Germano, Reddin, CA

AND

Q-Hey Griff,

A quick one: Beeston makes noises about a grass surface at Rogers Centre in the future. As badly as I want this, my gut says there is about 1% chance of it actually happening. This is hardly the first time grass has been mentioned, and probably won't be the last...and yet the turf 'lives' on and on. Am I being too pessimistic?

Tim Anderson, Copenhagen

A-I believe that grass would be a very important step in the future of the Jays. Uh, that's of course the type that cows eat. Historically, there have been several baseball injuries more than just the constant pounding on the knees, that can at least partially be credited to the artificial surface at the Rogers Centre. Now think about the amount of money possibly lost just in salary for a guy like Jose Bautista if he's disabled for most of any season. That saved salary would by itself pay for the RC conversion from turf to grass. Joey Bats, as an example, did in fact sprain his ankle badly on a baserunning play right after this year's all-star break. Luckily he has a high tolerance for playing with pain. But no doubt it continued to affect his second half performance. How much of that injury can be blamed on the artificial turf? We'll never know, but any lingering question of blame would be eraced by grass and dirt.

Besides, it's a better looking game for fans. There's something sportingly-romantic about any traditional looking baseball field with an all-dirt infield and the unique back and forth patterns of freshly mowed infield and outfield grass. But perhaps most importantly and something that may have kick-started the Jays' explorations of installing grass at the RC is the number of important free agents that choose somewhere else to play even though the money offer is the same – see Carlos Beltran -- and the number of players that may place the Jays on their personal, limited no-trade list in contracts with other teams because of the RC artificial turf. There is enough of a Jays handicap playing home games in what some young, unsophisticated ballplayers consider as the uncertainty of a foreign country, clearing customs, exchanging money, without worrying about the playing surface adding to that perception.

The Jays DO pay attention to the peripherals. They refurbished the home clubhouse to make it one of the most comfortable and player friendly in baseball. They changed their policy to stay at nothing but the finest luxury hotels on the road after Scott Rolen suggested that it was a factor in players' opinions of the organization. They have always gone the extra mile for players' families off the field. So why not the extra mile on the field itself? The difference in the grass chatter this time is that it is coming from the team itself rather than outside rabble-rousers. Oh, by the way, goodbye Argos, goodbye Bills once a year games, goodbye Moto-Cross, rodeos and anything that could do damage to a natural surface.

Q-Hi Richard,

So based on that Monday night event at the Rogers Centre, it's very clear that the Jays will NEVER ever want or be able to sign star free agents or even type A since Beeston doesn't want to give out a contract of more than 5 years. Are you kidding me? 10 year contracts are ridiculous but the Angels and the Tigers will have a steady fan base for the next 10 years. Since this fact is known to rest MLB and MLBPA (5 year max) none of them would even consider Toronto. Grass or no grass. That's a shame since I now know that the Jays will be a mediocre team for MANY years to come with the occasional excitement of being only in the race. Your thoughts please?

Kam H., Richmond Hill

A-I believe that sometimes the young, still grateful Alex Anthopoulos is too deferential to his boss, the man who got him his job. Times change and, you're right, if the Jays stick to the ridiculous policy of not handing out any free agent contract longer than five years, then they will remain standed in the land of baseball mediocrity. The one key, hopeful statement that AA made at the State of the Franchise was at the end when he was swarmed by media, shrugged and pointed out that there was a time when Paul Beeston would not hand out any contract longer than “three years” and that has changed to five years.

Recall that Beeston gave up on keeping Jimmy Key back in the day because he wouldn't give him more than three years. The Yankees gave him five. So in the next two years, Beeston is likely to mellow and even if he compromises and goes to seven guaranteed years and maybe a couple of non-guaranteed option seasons, at least AA could hope to compete for the big boys. But you're right. It's a copout that they expect fans to just accept when they shrug and say “It's our policy to not give contracts longer than five years.” It's fine if it's your own young players, but if they went beyond that policy for outside free agents even their own guys would applaud. The extra year is why they did not go as hard as they should have on Yu Darvish and why they shrugged off Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols. It's a copout.

Q-With baseball salaries so completely outrageous aren't teams with scant resources like the Jays now nothing more than farm teams for the more affluent franchises. So is this not the real reason that the Jays did not bother to upgrade this offseason?

William Phillips, Belleville

A-I think you're wrong about baseball salaries being so completely outrageous. Remember, there's no salary cap and they play 162 games, about double the NHL and NBA, while the NFL plays 16. But my point is that baseball finally seems to be making the adjustment to the realiztion that there are two tiers of baseball talent. There's the superstars and then there's the rest of them.

Just look at the number of veteran free agents this winter that had trouble finding a job. It was unbelievable for fans but more importantly it was an eye opener for players and agents. Free agency used to be a reward. Now it can be a Gulag of uncertainty. Look at players like Carlos Pena, Johnny Damon, Francisco Cordero, Ryan Madson and many more. When A-Rod signed his quarter-billion contract with the Rangers in 2000 it was predicted at the time that it would be the beginning of the end for baseball small market teams. And it did indeed drag the salaries skyward of mediocre players whose agents argued “My client is half as good as A-Rod so pay him half the money.” That discombobulated the GMs and worked for the players for a long while, but it's not working anymore. Baseball has started to figure it out. It's like the film industry. You can be half as good an actor as Leonardo DiCaprio but you will never be able to demad half his per-movie salary if you're an extra. His name is on the marquee and you are merely a player. Pujols is a marquee player. Prince is a marquee player. Even Yu Darvish is a marquee player.

On the one other point, the Jays are not a team with scant resources. The Toronto population is 5.8 million and Canada is at 33.8 million. That is their market. There are no more MLB farm teams for more affluent franchises. Even the Yankees and Red Sox have realized they need to produce their own talent and take pride in their own scouting and player development. The Jays have solid corporate ownership in this marriage. Unfortunately Rogers has a mistress on the side named MLSE and that hurts.

Q-Richard:

I have trouble finding stats. on minor leaguers, so I may be wrong here but I don't think Daniel Norris has thrown a pitch in professional baseball yet. It seems to me that it's a stretch to rank him as a top-20 prospect in the Jays' system. A bit too much hype? Your thoughts?
 Still hoping to say "Hi" to you in Dunedin.

Bruce Spurrier, Courtenay

A-I'm with you. Norris was a highly ranked high school prospect just eight months ago. He signed late and has not thrown a pro pitch. But everyone in media wants to be the smartest guy in the room. So the Jays managed to get Norris later than expected and the kid has tremendous upside so everyone wants to be able to say when he makes it to the majors, “Yeah, in the winter of 2011-12 I had him in my Top 20. Aren't I smart? Hey, anyone can pick Deck McGuire or Chad Jenkins in their Top 20. They were both No. 1 selections. But Norris? Yeah, that was me.”

I think the ranking of prospects is largely copycat. Let Norris prove he deserves it on the professional field before throwing bouquets his way. Sometimes it's the organization and it's history that produces the love. I remember in the early '90s when Dan Duquette left the Expos for the Red Sox as GM. The Expos had a history of churning out GMs so when Kevin Malone took over, the first day on the job he came into my office and said, “Hey Rich, this is great. I have not even sat down in the chair and two teams called and offered me a job.” That was organization reputation and in the same way if the Jays signed Norris and got him with an unexpected pick, overpaid him, he must be Top 20.

Q-Hi Richard,

Long-distance need for your insight.

After all the hoopla about Adeiny Hechavarria, he's fallen from a top 100 overall to being ranked #16 amongst our own prospect base by mlb.com... even though his Las Vegas numbers offered hope his hitting was coming around...

I know these lists are arbitrary and all, but wow. Is the kid a keeper?

Richard Elton, Melbourne, Australia

A-The same thing is happening to Hechavarria that we talked about in the previous question. Nobody among those compiling their lists wants to be seen as the only one to keep Hechavarria high on their list when all the other experts are dropping him down. It's a copycat world. The kid is only 22-years-old and has mad skills defensively.

People are down on him because of his $10-million, four-year guaranteed deal. But the Jays are bringing him along at his own pace and as long as he has options then they can watch him develop at the right pace. I am going to cut him some slack and watch closely this spring because standing out on the field every day taking infield with Omar Vizquel and Yunel Escobar can only help his development mentally as a future major-leaguer. He will start the year at Las Vegas, but if things go well, if the Jays have a deep lineup, if there is an injury to either Kelly Johnson or Escobar that puts him on the DL, then Hechavarria will likely get the call and have a chance to move up again on everyone's prospect rankings. He's fun to watch and physically stronger than you think.

Q-Hi Richard,

I'm a long time Blue Jays fan in the UK and I was wondering about AA's 'disappointing' offseason so far. As fans, we want to know the details of the organization's game plan, but it's not in the organization's interest to broadcast every last detail for everyone to read about, so we have to accept some things will remain hidden until the time is right. The Jays made an unsuccessful bid for Darvish which would have kick-started the Jays' bid for the 2012 post-season, but this wasn't to be. Do you think that the relative silence from AA this offseason could be due to a bid for Votto next offseason, with the aim of success in 2013?

Paul B., Bristol, England

A-The reason we in the media are qualifying the 2011-12 off-season as disappointing is that at the end of the 2011 campaign in wrapping up the season, Anthopoulos said that the goal was to add a top-of-the-rotation starter, another power bat, a backup catcher and to strengthen the bullpen, especially at closer. Now, the easiest two things to do in each and every off-season are to change the bullpen and find a second catcher. The two toughest -- AA's other goals -- went unfulfilled. There was nothing being hidden by AA at the time or being guessed at by the media. He was flush with optimism and that's when he is at his most candid.

The original game plan is being delayed a year. I suspect some of it has to do with the late news of the successful bid for the MLSE share that has yet to be finalized. The Darvish and Fielder things were less about the huge money than they were about the silly principle of not going more than five years of guaranteed money. As for future Votto, that has nothing to do with anything that has happened this winter. The Jays would love to see Adam Lind succeed and rebound as a first baseman this year. But if Votto is available over the next two winters, the Jays will be there. But the Reds are poised to contend this year and Votto is an important part of that,. He is a free agent after 2013 and he will be demanding more than a five-year deal. So, unless the Jays change their policy, they're already out of the running for the Etobicoke flash.

Q-I beg to differ from all the doom and gloom out there that 2012 is going to be a lost season. With Ricky Romero and Brandon Morrow continuing to mature as starting pitchers, I am also expecting Brett Cecil to rebound from his poor record last year. With Dustin McGowan and whoever else who make up the 4th and 5th starter, I do not think it will be too far-fetched to think that the starters alone can win 4 or 5 more games than last year. When you consider the much improved bullpen and continued even marginal improvement of Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus and Kelly Johnson, they should be able to win another 4 or 5 games, which will push them close to 90 wins and contender territory. The above, of course, is premised on not too many serious injuries to the key players.
 Mark my words, the Blue Jays will contend this year, particularly if they are still in the mix at the trade deadline so AA can pull off a trade for another bat or a blue chip starter.

Harry Ng, Qatar

A-I don't think that any projected 81 win season is ever “doom and gloom” it's just not good enough. You're reaching and praying with some of your upbeat analyses. While Romero, Morrow and the bullpen will all be solid, the pitching overall, especially rotation spots 3-5, will be the big question mark. The pen is considered effective to very good but only if they are consistently asked to pitch three innings or less in a game. It's when the starters fail and the pen is extended and gets out of its comfort zone, when Frasor enters a game in the third inning like he did last year, before he's even had a chance to have his first coffee, that's when problems arise.

If Drabek, or Alvarez, or Hutchison, or McGuire or someone else steps up in the rotation then they may move up in the standing. Kelly Johnson is what he is. Colby Rasmus is what he was two years ago. Lawrie is what he will be. The kid has to remain healthy. He is so intense on the field he might fracture a wrist giving a high five. It's far from doom and gloom but it's just as far from a wild-card berth.

Q-Trade Proposal: Roy Halladay for Anthony Gose, Travis D'Arnaud, and Kyle Drabek...which GM says no? This trade actually make sense again for both teams. The Jays need a veteran #1 starter to anchor their staff, and the aging Phillies badly need an injection of youth to a team that may be out of it in two more years. What do you think?

Darren Low, Toronto

A-The question should be “Which player says no?” The answer to that is Halladay. He wants no part of sustained mediocrity You're right about the Phils in two more years, but they want to take their best shot at another World Series this year before the window closes. By the time the suggestion is revisited at the end of 2012, the Jays may have changed their mind if D'Arnaud and Gose develop as expected.

Q-Travis Snider is an enigma, but exactly the guy AA would be trying to trade for. I say you play him every day during spring training and give him at least three at-bats. If his swing mechanics are not correct, you'll be able to evaluate him and get rid of him before the end of spring training without burning his one remaining option. I think the Jays should give him the opportunity to play the entire season regardless. You'd be trading him at his lowest point right now and quite frankly the only way he maximizes overall value to the Jays is if he is on the Jays. If he can't make it this year then we all know it, and he'll be worthless anyways. I don't like how the Jays use him as a human yo-yo and continually send him down as soon he starts to struggle.

Jason Sinnarajah, San Francisco

A-Perhaps the fact that Snider is the type of player that AA would pursue is why he is still on the roster after a couple of disappointing seasons. The great thing about baseball and having 30 different organizatons is that they are all possessed of huge egos. Snider is a first round high school pick that has been highly touted all the way through his pro career. Even though his numbers say that he has been a disappointment, 20 other teams may be looking at him and thinking that “if we get a hold of this guy, with a change of scenery and with our coaching, we can make him fulfil his potential.” All you need is more than one or two teams and a player's value stays high. Snider is far from the point where just one team would be interested. But as you point out, the Jays hang onto him and he is now going head-to-head in left field with Eric Thames and it's not like they bring different skills to the table. This is the clearest battle for a position that I have seen in years. The only thing that would change it is if AA before opening day reaches out and acquires that experienced power bat he was looking for all winter.

Q-When will the Jays retire Carlos Delgado's number?

Sean Martin, Toronto

A-It's the Level of Excellence and that does not involve retiring numbers. The only numbers retired are Robby Alomar's 12 for being in the Hall-of-Fame and Jackie Robinson's 42 retired by MLB. But I would suggest that the Jays should honour Delgado some time during the 2013 season, the 20th anniversary of his major-league debut. Whenever it turns out to be, just be sure to do it.

Q-Hi Richard,

Love the blog. But I disagree with your recent criticism of AA.
 When he took over from Riccardi, AA said something like: we're going to rebuild, take the time to do it right and resist pressure to make a big move before the organization is ready. It's the same way Pat Gillick built the team, the same way Montreal competed all those years.
The Jays' farm system is full of potential stars still one, two or three years away. Is it really worth it to trade them now, only to still be mired in mediocrity three years from now? I want the Jays to compete every year, not mortgage the future again to make a run that falls short.
 You don't do that by trading your prospects for players. And what's the sense of paying a free agent $22M a year to help you finish third?

As a longtime Maple Leafs fan, I can tell you I've been waiting for a GM to come in and actually build the organization from the bottom up, rather than trade 1st rounders for stars past their prime. Waiting two or three more years is nothing compared to the lows Leafs fans have endured since 1977.
I would hate to see AA bow to media and fan pressure, make moves under these unfavourable circumstances, only to be criticized later by those who pressured him into dealing. Sometimes not making deals is the better move. Remember how happy we were when JP re-signed Vernon Wells? 
I say let AA keep playing the long game. Once the farm system begins to produce stars on a regular basis, that's when you blow $200M on a superstar free agent. And if it looks like trading Bautista makes more sense, then do it. Maybe for a top-of-the-rotation starter. Some fans will melt away, but strong TV ratings mean the Jays will go on. And once they start competing, even if it takes another three years, fans will come back to the park.
Especially if they bring in real grass. About time!

Darren MacDonald, Sudbury

A-I respect your views and feel your pain as a Leafs fan. The Jays may have been able to put themselves in a position to reasonably expect to compete in 2012 if they had been able to make the trade for a starting pitcher first. But if it had to be the other way around and wasn't. If they had chosen to sign a big-ticket free agent hitter first and then after that were not able to get a pitcher, that would have been the wrong order, maybe even a disastrous sequence in terms of sticking to the professed game plan that you rightly pointed out.

My understanding is that Anthopoulos believes he made a competitive offer for Mat Latos from the Padres and that he was a little disturbed that his offer finished second to the Reds who gave up Yonder Alonso, Edinson Volquez and two other prospects. At that point, AA's head was spinning. He's not used to being wrong. He then felt the haul the Nats gave up for Gio Gonzalez was too high and after that he, correctly, did not want to surrender Lawrie for Michael Pineda since the Jays' area of strength in the minors is young starting pitching and his weakness is third base.

Q-Mr. Griffin,

The fan base seems to be souring on the Jays' offseason moves, but with the doors of spring training swinging open soon I think there is room for some optimism. The biggest hole from last season was filled (8th and 9th inning relief) and the team returns a pretty good offensive lineup. I know everyone would love another top-end arm to go with Romero and Morrow but I am glad AA didn't overpay for a marginal guy like Gio Gonzalez or Matt Latos. Am I being too sunny or should the Jays be significantly better overall this season?

Ryan Hanchett, Goldsboro, NC

A-I think actually people sell last year's bullpen short. Manager John Farrell admits that he screwed up the pen by being reactionary and not sticking with his veterans in the situations they deserved. He went from Rauch to Francisco to nobody to Rauch to Francisco as closer. Casey Janssen was really good out of the pen. Remember that before the July trade for Colby Rasmus, there was depth with Frasor and Marc Rzepczynski and Dotel. But between July and September, they were scrambling to find the right role for Jesse Litch – that's role. Francisco ended the season being quite an effective closer, but I still wouldn't want to be a Mets fan with FF and Rauch now anchoring their pen. By the way, when we're talking baseball in February, there's no such thing as being “too sunny”.  

Jays mailbag: Remarks show Jose Bautista is comfortable with extra drug tests

Less than three weeks until spring training and the Jays' recent State of the Franchise assures us that all is well -- sort of, I guess.

Once again they Jays are hoping for development from players on hand. In other news, we found out: a) there may be real grass at the Rogers Centre soon, b) Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow and Yunel Escobar will each have bobblehead giveaways, c) there will be more choice added for women in terms of Jays wear, not just pink and girly and includes more players' names, d) former catcher Kevin Cash has been hired as an advance scout for the major-league team, e) manager John Farrell rates himself a C for his rookie year, f) the sixth year and beyond of their contracts scared the Jays off of Yu Darvish and Prince Fielder and g) uh, wait until next year. 

There were no fan questions Monday regarding Jose Bautista and, by his own count, the 16 drug tests he has undergone in two seasons since breaking out as a star. It was not a leak, if you'll pardon the pun. He was asked at a charity event in the Dominican by future Hall-of-Famer Pedro Martinez and he replied in matter of fact manner. If it doesn't bother Jose, why does it bother so many of us.

Some fans and media were outraged at his 16 tests, which is strange because for years between 2004 and 2010, guys like Dick Pound and the Olympic people were making fun of baseball for having a toothless drug testing policy, with gaps in credibility because of not enough tests and players sometimes getting advance warning.

Now, you have the top slugger of the past two seasons being tested more times than would be anticipated and not complaining about it, almost saying “Bring it on,” and, now, outside people deem it necessary to step up in his defence. I admire Bautista for his views, because at one point in his breakout year some media suggested that those questions of performance enhancers needed to be asked. It seems to me it has been answered. He's not asking for sympathy.

Nevertheless, it seems an awful lot of random tests for one player.

Upon further review, here are the mandated guidelines as per collective bargaining. Every player undergoes two mandatory urine test seeking traces of any of a total of 58 listed PEDs and a dozen banned stimulants. The first urine test takes place during the team medicals at the start of spring training and one other happens at some point during the season. In addition, for 30 teams times 25 players plus DL, say 800 players in all, there will be 1,200 random tests selected by computer during the season and 375 maximum tests at random during the offseason. That works out to an average of two mandatory tests per player and, using the law of averages, what might be two more in 12 months from the lottery. It seems that Lucky Jose has doubled what might be an anticipated total of eight tests over two seasons. However, there is a kicker to the math.

Extra tests can be administered for “probable cause” as recommended by the Mitchell Report. There does not even need to be evidence, just suspicion, as baseless as anonymous phone calls or the like.

It seems likely, in order to reach that inflated number, that provision may have been triggered during 2010 speculation where Joey Bats was forced to deny steroid use. But that accounts perhaps for a couple of extra tests. Checking further into the penalty portion of the negotiated CBA, we all know that for testing positive for PEDs the first time, the automatic penalty is a 50-game suspension. That happened to Manny Ramirez and, more recently, Ryan Braun. There are a total of 58 PEDs on that list.

However, for testing positive for one of a dozen banned stimulants, some of which may be in weight loss products or in other innocuous pharmaceutical products, the penalty for a first failure is not a suspension, but becomes six more mandatory tests over the next 12 months, above and beyond any other tests. The whole process is absolutely confidential and the only way the current Bautista controversy started is because Bautista himself said something to a peer back home. There will be no more information forthcoming from baseball or the union, but Bautista is comfortable with the facts and for people to know that his 97 homers over two seasons are clean. Good for him.

On to the mailbag.    

Q-Hi Richard,

First of all, I just want to say that I check thestar.com/sports and Drunk Jays Fans as often as I check my e-mail. Thanks for being one of my sources for Blue Jays information throughout the year! I always look forward to reading your mailbag.

 I often hear mention of Sabermetric baseball measures that I don't have a reference point for: xFIP, DICE, PERA, etc. Which of these, take pitching for example, do you think are really valuable indicators of a pitcher's abilities? Fans debate all day whether wins are a good indication of a pitcher's worth. What would be a "great xFIP" (or another measure for that matter) in the same way people say an ERA around two is great?

Thanks Richard,

Jeff R., Toronto 

A-For most of those Defence Independent Pitching stats, like the ones you mention in your question, there is value in knowledge, although they are not my favourites.

It seems to me that all of these stats that try and remove defenders from the equation and isolate the skills of the individual, that the results  they produce are more geared towards predicting future performance, which makes me believe they are best for Fantasy Baseball type purposes not for ranking all time pitchers. In a vacuum, these analyses are great, but there are times when “pitching to contact” is what a pitcher is told, even if he is capable of missing bats with the best of them.With a big lead for example and to conserve pitch count.

There are times also when I question the consistency of those recording the types of contact, fly ball, line drive, groundball, that produce these specialized numbers. All of these stats have their place in evaluating performance and kudos to those that have made the effort to analyze, but, you're asking for my own preference. When I'm looking through pages of minor-league stats, the first thing I start with in looking for top prospects is guys with high Ks per IP and among those guys, a strikeout to walk ratio of 3:1. That is solid through all levels of the minors. I used to be a “wins first” old school guy but reasonable arguments through the years -– not those that lash out with condescending anger towards dinosaur writers -- have swayed me and that's ultimately why I changed my mind in the end and voted for Bert Blyleven for Hall-of-Fame, although he still does not seem to appreciate those who finally came around and got him in.  

Q-I was wondering what your opinion of free agent starting pitchers Brandon Webb and Jon Garland is and whether they would be a good fit in the Jays starting lineup. I think a stabilizing/mature/ mentor type starter could be helpful with our young starters. Maybe even Roy Oswalt ?

Rob Linton, Espanola, ON

A-Webb, 32, was the '06 Cy Young winner, but has had two shoulder surgeries since then, including last August. The Jays already have one twice-repaired recovering right-hander in Dustin McGowan. The 32-year-old Garland made just nine starts with the Dodgers and had his option declined after shoulder surgery. Rotator cuff and other shoulder surgeries are not as predictable in terms of recovery time and ability to return to previous performance as is Tommy John elbow surgery. Teams tend to stay away from free agents with shoulder history. There are others that I can't understand why the Jays don't pursue with an invite to compete for a rotation spot at spring training, led by Rich Harden. 

Q-Hi Richard,

Thanks for the great columns! I completely agree with you that spring is the best time of the year and I heartily recommend fans getting to spring training, if they can. They won't be disappointed, especially with all the teams clustered around the Tampa area. I attended a week of spring training for the first time last year and loved every minute of it.

I have two questions. First, I am wondering what you think of the Blue Jays outfield situation in the short and medium term. I see a potential logjam. I've always liked Travis Snider and Eric Thames is interesting, but I saw Anthony Gose last year and was impressed by what he brings to the table. Do you think the Jays hierarchy envisions a Jose Bautista, Colby Rasmus, and Gose outfield in 2013? Gose looks too good to keep down for long and the Jays lack a basestealing threat among their regulars. Also, last year I was struck by how the Yankees have such a foothold in Tampa during the spring. Does this cause some embarrassment for the Rays since one of their chief rivals has such a successful presence in their hometown?

Roy Parisien, Montreal 

A-As for the Jays' outfield, let's just already give a backup role to Ben Francisco at the corners and another bench spot to Rajai Davis if he has recovered fully from his leg injury. Davis can play occasionally in centre field and steal a base off the bench in late innings. With Bautista in right and Rasmus in centre, that leaves room for just one of Thames or Snider. Assuming it is a wide-open, fair fight and that the decision has not already been made, internally, my guess is that if Snider wins the job then Thames would return to Las Vegas and play every day at Triple-A, but if Thames wins the job, then AA might look for a trade for Snider, given the depth in the outfield and the number of prospects coming fast, like Gose and Jake Marisnick.

Just as a side note, the fact that the Jays may carry five outfielders, plus Edwin Encarnacion, reduced the value of super-sub Mike McCoy and allowed AA to invite an infield-only, super glove man in the 44-year-old vintage shortstop, Omar Vizquel. Besides, Vizquel's agent, Adam Katz also represents Cuban free agent Yoenis Cespedes and goodwill with an important agent never hurts, now or in the future.  

The Jays' outfield of 2013 is another interesting question. AA talked recently about the reason for acquiring Rasmus being that it's tough to find 25-year-old quality starting outfielders and that he had to take the opportunity when presented since his own young outfielders weren't ready yet. Not a ringing endorsement for a long future in Toronto. The Jays will have a choice when Gose is ready. They can have him co-exist with Rasmus, or they could trade Colby for other pieces. He still has real value with other teams. It all depends on how fast Gose progresses at Triple-A this year.  

Q-I am very disappointed in the Jays offseason moves there is something missing all that has happen is a new closer and spare parts.
 I think the Jays general manager has missed the boat on getting help for the starting pitching and lethal bat in the lineup.

Sean Morris, Mississauga

A-Every winter, the easiest things to do via free agency is to fill needs at backup catcher and in the bullpen. Nice job, Jays. So the fact that Anthopoulos was able to trade for Jeff Mathis, Sergio Santos and Jason Frasor and sign Darren Oliver and Francisco Cordero is like coming back with a boatload of fish from the Grand Banks. But it's the top-of-the-rotation arm and the power bat that were the real challenges and the Jays came up empty on both counts – although there's still time. There are still too many question marks in the rotation, although a lineup that ranked fifth in runs scored, has the possibility of being better in 2012 without the addition of a lethal bat. And the bullpen will be good.   

Q-Great content in your blog. I'm confused for the last 3 years the Blue Jays have not had a problem scoring runs fifth over all last year I believe and if pitching is the most important part of a team's success shouldn't we be more concern that we didn't get a starter than a big bat and isn't it more prudent to find out what the Brent, J.P., Colby and left field can contribute before we spend big money.

Brian Sharp, Chatham, ON

A-That is a good question that relates to the previous question and answer. I truly agree with the concept of the offence perhaps being even better. A healthy Bautista will be able to maintain his status as one of the top power hitters in baseball. I believe Adam Lind will bounce back because of his second season at first base, with better conditioning and his second year being married and settled down as a father. Arencibia is more comfortable defensively and can now turn his focus back on hitting. Lawrie is at third base for a full season and Escobar is an underrated offensive player. Kelly Johnson, Rasmus and the starting left fielder will all have a full season to settle into the role. Encarnacion can hit.  

Q-Hi Richard,

Heading to Dunedin in March with a couple of friends, it's dream come true! Any recommendations on food, drink, or attractions while not at Dunedin Stadium?

 Much appreciated,

Giuseppe L., Toronto

A-Let's see. On game days, find a free parking spot on Main Street Dunedin around 9 a.m. Walk down Douglas to the ballpark in time to see early batting practice. You don't need tickets for that. They will kick you out around 11:15 a.m. The Jays make everyone leave and come back through the turnstiles. At that point, head across the street for breakfast at Iris's. The right field corner is where the Jays clubhouse is located and guys coming out of the game in the fifth inning and beyond will stop and sign. After the game, wander back north on Douglas to Main Street about 2 km and have a post-game libation at any of the wonderful bar/restaurants along the street. Perhaps the Chica-Boom Room attached to Kelly's. Martinis are their specialty. Uh, please appoint a designated driver.

If you get a chance during your week also go to the Phillies ballpark along Highway 19 and watch the game from the outdoor Tiki Bar beyond the left field fence, especially if it’s during March Madness. The hoops will be on TV. You can wander over and lean on the rail over the bullpens and talk to the guys or farther out, lie down on the grass above centre field and get some sun. The Tiki Bar stays open a couple of hours after the game. Appoint a designated driver. In the evening, at least once you should go to Clearwater Beach and drive to the north end along the main street. There will be a huge parking lot on your left, right on the beach with Frenchy’s at one end and the Palms at the other. Both bars back onto  the beach and after going for a long walk in the surf, you will have surely worked up a thirst. Other destinations, at the end of Gulf to Bay, just before the Courtney Campbell Causeway to Tampa is another series of bars and restaurants. Tips? Stay away from Hooter’s, even though it is the original location. I believe they have some of the original staff. However Pete and Shorty’s, right next door has a great pub menu and is where George Steinbrenner had lunch with David Wells cinching a Yankee deal over a plate of sliders his second time around with the Bombers. Right next door is Razzel’s, with a live DJ on weekends and sketchy clientele, but the beer is cold and it’s where Cole Hamels got in a fight in the spring of ‘05, breaking a bone in his hand punching a local. If you want to hang out with the “swells” then go to Liquid Blue on Ft. Harrison near Clearwater Beach and smoke cigars next to a great dance floor with throbbing music that precludes conversation balanced by plenty of visual distractions. 

Across the Tampa causeway, a visit to the Yankee ballpark is a must. It's clearly the Mecca of spring training with a great baseball gift shop. Close to Steinbrenner Field are Mons Venus and the Pink Pony, two player approved gentlemen clubs that are iconic spring training watering holes. In fact Mons is where fellow Star reporter Mark Zwolinski and I went on a reconnaissance mission to find Boomer Wells for quotes after he was traded to the Jays from the Yankees in the spring of '99. War is hell! Do you know how tough it is to get a receipt for a lap dance? At least once on your trip, make it to Ybor City in east Tampa just off Highway 4. Great party venue for major Spanish-American Holidays – like St. Patrick's Day. It's where Todd Stottlemyre and Dave Stewart were arrested on bogus charges so be careful. Check out the Lightning schedule for home games at the downtown arena. There is a great outdoor March Blues Festival in St. Pete. Tampa Bay Downs has thoroughbred racing. Culturally, check out Ruth Eckerd Hall for live music and the Tampa Aquarium for live fish.  Enjoy your trip.         

Q-Hi Richard,

AA is all about seeking out “value” in trades and FA; AA is also all about having “options” regarding players on his own roster. 

In your opinion, when is the right time to abandon this value/option equation and to go for it? The best pitching prospects in the system are Daniel Norris and Noah Syndergaard in the low minors, and they are at least 2-3 yrs away from TO.

 If AA is to adopt the Rays way of building a rotation from within, do you really see a stacked TO rotation until these 2 are ready for the majors? Is it time to build up (or not torch) the trade value for Deck McGuire, Chad Jenkins, Drew Hutchison as possible trade baits much like Molina?

 Thanks and please keep up the good work!

James Ho, Vancouver

A-For me, this year would have been the right time to abandon the “building” policy and begin going for the gold. But somewhere along the line, spending money to get better was replaced by Rogers ownership needing a “guarantee” for the playoffs. Since this is pro sports and a team game, guarantees don’t exist so the Jays can excuse themselves for all their inactivity. It’s an easy out. It’s a chicken and the egg argument where the egg is winning and the chicken is Rogers.

I got to thinking about why the Jays are sitting on all this very deep and very talented inventory of young starting pitchers. The only thing I could think of was that since most of the inventory is two years away from being able to contribute to anyone’s major-league effort, that perhaps other GMs are waiting to see what 2012 brings for youngsters like Justin Nicolino, Syndergaard, Aaron Sanchez, Asher Wojo, Norris, Hutchison, Jenkins, McGuire, Evan Crawford and even Kyle Drabek. I think if the Jays had actually landed one of Mat Latos, Gio Gonzalez or Michael Pineda, they would have accelerated the search for a bat and would have gone for the gold this year, but the first domino didn’t fall so the policy of seeking out value and making decisions based on remaining options continues. 

Q-Lost in the rhetoric of “spending money when the time is right” is the question of what does Rogers do when that moment arrives? I think it is safe to say that no matter what the hype, attendance will not increase without more winning. 2012 will probably be a lost season with fans waiting on results and Rogers waiting on fans. Is it reasonable to expect the Jays to win at least 85 games in 2012? Will 85 wins be promising enough or do the Jays have to win 90 and contend before attendance increases? How many tickets do the Jays have to sell before Rogers authorizes a competitive budget? And why must budget increases be predicated on absolutely increasing attendance. I always thought it was a synergy thing for Rogers since they own all the parts of the Jays’ revenue stream. Surely the broadcasts alone make a substantial profit? So what happens when the moment arrives and attendance is still abysmal. As the team gets better, will Rogers spend what is necessary to keep it together? Or will the Jays find themselves in an unending cycle of developing players for other teams?

Vilip Mak, Etobicoke

A-There is a universal truth in major-league baseball that attendance reflects the previous year’s finish. Bank on it. Most ticket purchases of a serious nature, whether season, groups, or mini-packs take place in the off season and reflect the success or failure of the previous season. In that case, you are right about 2012 being an attendance write off even if the Jays manage to win 85 games. That’s why the Jays’ off-season mantra of “come and we will win” is misguided to the max. Sure, they have since backed off of that logic, at least publicly, but have not promised a timetable of investing in a winner.

The Jays will be spending about $85 million and that should, in fact, be a competitive budget, but won’t be. The Yankees and Red Sox spend their extra money on depth and are able to absorb injuries better than the Jays. The Rays are unbelievable in their ability to compete on less money, but their rotation is young and talented and homegrown which the Jays can match but to a lesser degree in each category. That is the Jays true chance moving forward to become like the Rays, is for their rotation to become more defined and developed. Romero, Morrow and Henderson Alvarez is a good start.  

Q-Richard,

I’m concerned about the Jays payroll moving forward. They’re not yet in the competitive range, yet their payroll this season is already around $85 million and if you consider internal raises without adding any free agents, they will surely be in the $90s next year with only 2 established/bona-fide starts in Romero and Bautista. AA has always cited the Rays as being an excellent model to follow yet the Rays payroll will be half that of the Jays with two legit stars (Longoria and Shields). 

I also don’t like the fact that the Jays have all these young prospects and relievers in the minors that they really aren’t giving a chance to. Carreno, Farquar, Magnusson, and Beck all seem to have the stuff to compete in the pen. Yet, the Jays stack their pen with veterans or guys with some experience (Janssen, Zep, etc.) leaving no spot for any raw youngster to develop. Perez only came up last year due to injury. Most teams tend to leave room on their roster to carry 1-2 young relievers and let them learn/develop. That’s how the Braves and Angels found their stud closers and the Yanks, BoSox, Brewers, A’s etc. found very serviceable Rps.

J.T., Toronto

A-I don’t believe that the payroll drifting north of $90 million next season is an issue for Rogers. It’s not going to stand in the way of taking the next step which they keep promising to do when ready. In terms of the Rays, recall that in the second half of ‘07 then ‘08 when they surprised the baseball world by going to the World Series, they completely rebuilt the bullpen, adding veterans to go with their young starters. Given that model, I don’t begrudge the Jays choosing to add veteran relievers now. The teams that you mentioned, specifically the Braves and the Angels, yes they added young relievers, but specifically those farmhands were mostly studly guys that could tickle 100 mph on the radar gun. These are the types of high-ceilinged youngsters that can come in raw and blow three hitters away in middle relief without worrying about sequences or the art of changing speeds. The Jays with Farquhar, Magnuson and Beck as your examples, have guys that don’t throw as hard and need to learn how to pitch in the minors before being moved up. However, that being said, the next generation of Jays pitchers are all long and lean and hard-throwing and mean. That’s when you’ll see some young starters, maybe with only two major-league pitches in their repertoire, brought up early to work out of the pen and maybe stay in the majors in bigger roles as they learn how to pitch at the highest level.   

Q-Hi Richard -

AA has created high expectations through some great work over his first 2 years. I’ve noticed a lot of people grumbling about this offseason and where hopes have not met expectations (yet). Other than the Napoli trade, I don’t think AA has been bested in a deal yet.
 Now to my question - how do you see the team’s middle infield situation unfolding over 2012? Escobar and KJ are locks to start, but where does Adeiny fit in? It would seem that he is a player who has the defence to push for a job sooner than later, and his offensive trajectory appears to be coming along. Do you see the Jays looking for a new 2nd baseman in case KJ bolts after this year, or letting Escobar and Adeiny settling that?

Dan Olson, Port Moody, BC

A-There has been a lot of grumbling, but if there was no grumbling then there would be only apathy and the Jays should appreciate the interest that fans and media are showing in their unfinished symphony. Anthopoulos is still on a learning curve. You don’t come in and re-invent the role of GM – uh, unless you’re Billy Beane. Track record? Let’s see, now, in his first two seasons, AA traded away a Cy Young winner, a playoff MVP and handed over three key members of a world series champion pitching staff while managing two fourth place finishes. Lucky he hasn’t been bested, right?

As for the middle infield situation, the Jays will begin with Escobar and Kelly Johnson, with Hechavarria getting comfortable at Vegas – which, karma-wise, is very much like Havana before the revolution. If either Jays’ middle infielder is injured, Adeiny gets the call and provides great defence while batting ninth. At some point over 162 games that is likely to happen. If Hech takes advantage of his opportunity and with KJ a free agent at the end of the year, the Jays will have options.    

Q-It seems that AA is trying for a cheap 500 season: bullpen help, but no starters, reserve position help, but no starters. Ben Francisco? Either he vastly overrates the kids or he knows something he’s not telling. Seems to me it’s 81 wins and “ wait till next year”!

Peter Thomson, Elizabeth City, NC

A-Alex always knows something he’s not telling. In any case, I’m predicting 81 wins.

Q-Hi Mr. Griffin,

Thanks for all you insight over the years, I look forward to checking your site daily in hope of finding a new column. Looking for some advice with this question. I will be attending my first spring training game this year on March 11 when the Jays SS are playing Atlanta at the Disney Complex. I am looking for some advice on how to get the most out of this experience for my family, specifically my 6 and 8 year old boys. They told their mom that they would be willing to take a few hours out of their Disney schedule to take Dad (me) to the Blue Jays game as “Dad would love to see the Blue Jays”. I’m happy to just sit in the sun with them and watch the game, but is their anything in particular we should try to do? I realize that an away SS game will not have many of the regulars, but my boys will not know the difference, and I am just has happy to see some of the young guys I read about all the time. Anything you could offer would be much appreciated. Thanks in advance!

Jason MacDonald, Amherst, NS

A-The Jays Disney dugout is on the third base line. If you buy tickets get them on that side. For BP you can get right down to the rail at the outfield end of the dugout and some of the young guys will come over and sign for the kids. Maybe you could just crouch down real low so they only see the boys. During the game, I’m not sure if it’s just open seating but behind left field has grass that you can sit on and watch the game and get some sun. It will be very hot. If you get there early, before going into the park, wander around the complex and there is always something going on whether it’s soccer, football or cheerleading competitions. There is a pub-restaurant right outside the turnstiles with sports on TV and, importantly, air conditioning. It would probably be someone like Don Wakamatsu managing, with a lot of the young players that will be stars by the time your boys grow up. Have fun.  

Q-Hi Richard.

Please give us another mailbag soon. Hope you are feeling well.

Bruce Hutchison, Winnipeg

A-I’ll do my best with the mailbag. But I’ll be feeling better when Air Canada 903 touches down in Florida with me on it in a couple of weeks.