Blue Jays mailbag: Opening Day and first loves

When the Jays open the 2011 season against the Twins on Friday, it will be this columnist's 39th major-league live-at-the-stadium home opener in a row, 22 with the Expos — the first four at Jarry Park, 18 at Olympic Stadium — and now 17 opening days covering the Jays at SkyDome/Rogers Centre.

 It always seems that last day, the final 24 hours before opening day bring on familiar, but uncontrollable emotional reactions. Comparison? Let's see, hmm. If I can remember that far back, it's like when you're young and carefree, getting ready for a highly-anticipated first night out, infatuated by a fresh, new love.

 You absolutely know how you would like the ensuing six months to turn out, minus the dog days, but it rarely happens the way you anticipated. Of course, that doesn't make it bad.

With either one, you're tied for first with everyone else, none of the exposed flaws you clearly know exist on display, just like in baseball. Your mind races, the mouth gets dry, the heart pounds out of control, contemplating the end-of-the-spectrum eventualities of success and failure that lie ahead.

In your mind's eye either thrilling scenario ends with a celebratory tangle of humanity at the moment of ultimate triumph — although one is in a packed stadium, the other behind closed doors.

Perhaps it's why  aspects of inter-personal relationships are commonly given clear baseball similes, like “reaching second base,” “rounding third and headed for home,” “missing the sign,”  “getting shut out,” “fantasy keeper,” “out in left field” or even “struck out.” (See Meat Loaf's iconic Paradise by the Dashboard Light).

The fact is Opening Day never gets old. The Jays are sold out. Play ball, gentlemen. On to the mailbag.     

Q. Why are the Jays putting Edwin Encarnacion back at third and moving Jose Bautista to right field. This move would make sense if they had traded Juan Rivera, but it does not make sense. The only reasonable explanation is that they want to strike fear literally into the Yankee and Red Sox fans who sit behind their dugout during the Yankee/Red Sox visits to Rogers Centre.

Jason Sinnarajah, San Francisco

A. The key for Encarnacion's fantasy owners is that whether his tenure at third base is long or short, the Jays had promised him before he signed his new contract that if healthy, he would get his chance for 600 at-bats. They just couldn't promise in what role that would be. The move of Encarnacion back to third base is baffling on the surface but understandable the more you think about it. The position shuffle, in fact, has a ripple effect on seven Jays' organization players – Encarnacion, Bautista, Rivera, Adam Lind, Juan Rivera, Brett Lawrie, Corey Patterson and Scott Podsednik.

One key is that when the Jays negotiated for the long-term with Bautista, the understanding was that he would be a right fielder as soon as they could make it happen. Jose said he had nothing to do with the sudden position change, that he was as surprised as anyone. Technically correct. This spring he hadn't said anything to put pressure on management but he didn't need to. They already knew his feelings.

Rivera is the man that doesn't fit the Jays' picture moving forward. His $5.25 million contract was what the Jays were taking on in the Vernon Wells trade more than Rivera the player.

It's like if in Da Vinci's famous mural The Last Supper there was a 13th apostle named Juan on the far right-hand side. The painting still works, but there's something just not quite right. The belief here with Rivera and the Jays is that he will DH and play the corner outfield until GM Alex Anthopoulos can find a new home for his bat. AA is willing to eat salary in order to clear the deck of Rivera, who just doesn't fit the big picture of what they are trying to do.

With Rivera gone, it opens a spot for outfielders Patterson and Podsednik, both currently injured. It also opens a spot for the 21-year-old Lawrie to be promoted and learn third base on a daily basis from the Jays' excellent major-league coaching staff. That then allows EE to get his at-bats as DH and backup first baseman, the original plan. The temporary move of the chronically scatter-armed EE to third base is also an affirmation of Lind's ever-evolving transition to first base.       

Q. Hi Richard. Should we be worried about Brett Cecil's loss in his fastball velocity? If so, how worried?

Mike S, Toronto

A. Yes we should be worried. Pitching coach Bruce Walton said that it happened two or three times last year and that Cecil's velocity always comes back. The excellent pitching coach had no theories on the cause. It's like waiting out the common cold. Cecil's fastball at its finest tops out at 90-92. Insiders say that his fastball speed this spring ranged between 86-91.

Finally, in his penultimate spring start, his frustration bubbled over. After yielding five runs in the sixth against the Braves including an absolutely crushed Dan Uggla bomb, Cecil, in a self-flagellating, post-game panic attack, had no explanation and questioned himself. Next time out, in his final spring tune-up, after a necessary session on Dr. Walton's psyche-soothing therapy couch, he had come in off the ledge and was speaking optimistically of hitting 91 m.p.h. once again. We don't know if that may have been Cecil merely whistling past the graveyard.

Recall last spring when Jason Frasor lost 2-4 m.p.h. off his fastball as the year opened. He lost the closer's role to Kevin Gregg before finally getting back to his usual 93-94 m.p.h. But it's easier to hide and adjust for a three-out reliever like Frasor than for an every-five-days starter like Cecil.

The Jays need everything to fall into place in order to compete with the .500 mark. Worry with Cecil is start-to-start, week-to-week. That could be enough to impact a Jays' season already on a tightrope.

Q. Hi Richard. I have read recent articles suggesting the Jays coaching staff is teaching Rajai Davis and Yunel Escobar to hit with more power. Is there a concern that Jays are giving up batting average for the sake of 5 more home runs? Top of the order guys need to get on base. You can only have so many guys who hit .240 with power.

David T, London

A. That's the misconception to what Jays' batting coach Dwayne Murphy is trying to accomplish. He's not teaching his students to hit with more power. He's teaching them to hit the ball hard. It works for everyone, including notorious non-power guys like John McDonald.

Consider the basic that in every six-pitch major-league sequence or plate appearance. He believes the pitcher is going to make one mistake or you are going to guess right one time on pitch, on location. Murphy is saying that whether that mistake or good read comes on the first pitch or the sixth pitch, the fact is your eyes should light up and you should crush that pitch. It's the best one you're likely to see.

In past years, as McDonald describes his own awakening, he would take that juicy pitch if it was early in the count because he didn't play often so he felt his goal was to see pitches and make the opposing pitcher work. He would arrive at two-strikes and have to defend his zone and adjust to pitcher's pitches.

In fact, Murphy's philosophy should not breed lower batting averages, although it's likely to lead to lower on-base averages. The explanation for a guy like Bautista drawing 100-plus walks is that Murphy preaches the discipline to not chase pitches out of the zone and the further fact is when you're a 50-homer guy, pitchers tend to try and make you chase with balls off the plate. If you don't chase, you walk.   

Q. Hi Richard. How does Adam Loewen fit into the organization's plans for the future? Is there a chance he'll get back to the "show" after his injury? We never hear anything about him.

Domenic Jannetta, Toronto

A. The Jays signed outfielder Loewen early in the winter and left him off the major-league 40-man roster, exposing him to the Rule 5 draft where every other team passed. Loewen saw a lot of game action with the major-league Jays at spring training and impressed manager John Farrell with his raw athleticism and his upbeat attitude. Here's a guy that's already been in the majors as a pitcher trying to fight his way back as an outfielder. Think Rick Ankiel. He will go to Vegas, where he and Eric Thames and David Cooper will have a chance to impress the Jays in a hitters' ballpark. He's solid inventory.

Q. Hey Richard. What's your take on Yunel Escobar? He seems to fly under the radar, but I think he's poised for a fantastic season with all-star potential.

J Koops, Hamilton

A. There are moments when you see flashes of what frustrated the Braves so much about the talented young Cuban shortstop. There was the ball he drove to right centre that he thought was going to be caught in the alley but with a gale blowing out, it carried over the centre fielder's head to the fence. Two runs scored, but Escobar had been trotting out of the box and watching and even though he turned on the afterburners was thrown out at third.

But Escobar has something in Toronto that he didn't have with the Braves. He has Jose Bautista. After that out at third base, which was the third out, Escobar waited on the infield for his glove to be brought out. Bautista handed it to him and then quietly lectured him for 45 seconds while the pitcher warmed up and they took grounders from first base. Later in the game, Bautista hit a routine grounder to short and sprinted all the way through the bag. Point made. Escobar does have a chance to be an all-star. He's big, strong and talented on both sides of the ball.

Q. Richard, I hope I am wrong; however, I am not buying the Ricky Romero hype. Mostly because when he is 'off' he is really bad and does not often tough out hard wins. When his stuff is working he looks great but then he can look the exact opposite his next start. I thought it said something when he was bypassed for the opening day start last year - did the coaches feel the same and not trust his stuff? Love the Expos memories...keep it up.

Scott MacPherson, Calgary

A. At this point, Romero is less an ace than he is the No. 1 pitcher in the Jays' rotation. It's tough for any Jays' No. 1 in the rotation because memories of Roy Halladay in that role are still fresh. Romero is still developing. It must be remembered that just four years ago, in 2007 he was trying to find himself at AA-New Hampshire.

Just two years ago, in 2009 he was the final starter out of spring training and only because the other candidates took more of a late-spring step backwards than he did. He has come a long way in a short time, but still has much to learn. The Jays have a No. 1 starter but don't have an ace — yet.

Q. Hi Richard, I really liked the insights you wrote about Arencibia's level of readiness in last week's mailbag. The pressure must be very high on the kid. Speaking of kids, is there anything you can share about how Gary Carter handled the pressure as he became the No. 1 catcher in Montreal in 77, that JPA could benefit from? Thanks always.

Roland Jodoin, Calgary

A. The pressure on Arencibia would be higher if the Jays, after missing out on Rod Barajas, who spurned their offer to sign with the Dodgers, had not decided in December that they were going to stick with Arencibia and allow him all the rope he needed to develop in the spring and at the start of the season. He knows that and trusts their word.

The pressure would be greater if catcher Travis D'Arnaud was at AAA-Las Vegas rather than in New Hampshire. The pressure would be greater if manager John Farrell had not decided that Jose Molina could handle Kyle Drabek and Brandon Morrow allowing Arencibia a 3-of-5 work schedule to ease his way into being the starting catcher. The pressure would be greater if he had not had two years at Triple-A including last season's MVP of the PCL.

As for the Expos' Hall-of-Fame catcher Gary Carter, it didn't start out all gravy way for him either.

As a rookie Carter played a couple of seasons of rock-em-sock-em right field. The second year, the disastrous 1976, included a rib-crushing catch crashing into the short chain link fence at Jarry Park, missing significant time. When the Expos moved to Olympic Stadium, he moved behind the plate, but there were still pitchers that said they would prefer pitching to Barry Foote, still only 25-years-old. Carter's major problem early was that he was a bundle of energy and bounced around behind the plate instead of presenting a consistent target for his pitchers.

Another problem was that he tried too hard to be one of the guys as an early 20s major-leaguer. It didn't always work. He was trying too hard. There are parallels with Arencibia and if J.P. comes anywhere close to Carter's career, it would be great.   

Q. Hi Richard. I always look forward to your mailbag. Based on the likely Opening Day roster, how would rank the Blue Jays' defence? Will the loss of Overbay and Wells have a significant impact? I know that defence is very difficult to quantify, but other than McDonald and Bautista (and Snider, who I feel is underrated as a fielder) I don't have a lot of confidence in our team in the field, and worry about what effect this could have on our young starters. Am I way off-base?

David Wencer, Toronto

A. There is cause for concern as far as the effect of the Jays' defence on the young starting pitchers. The only two positions at which the Jays should be considered above major-league average are shortstop and right field and right field only because of the deterrent of Bautista's throwing arm. At this point the Jays could be considered below average at first base, third base and behind the plate.

Even if it's one extra out required per game because of a play not made, that's what adds pitches and stressful situations to young pitchers and could have a subtle effect on their statistics. To Rajai Davis from Vernon Wells in centre field is a good example. Wells was sublime, with early jumps and good reads, gliding to the spot and making it look easy. Davis is faster and more spectacular, but that's because he's always making up ground for the split second longer reaction time than Wells and the slightly-off route he may have started out on. Overbay's glovework will be subtly missed as well.    

Q. Has Scott Richmond had his moment in the sun or is there still a place for him in MLB? Also, since there's apt to be a fair bit of movement between here and Las Vegas during the season, tell us a little bit about who gets paid what and when. For example, if a player comes up for a couple of weeks to fill in for an injured regular and then is send down again, does he get paid the major league minimum while here and then reverts to the Triple A scale when he returns? And what is the Triple A scale these days? Thanks.

Jerry Lawton, Toronto

A. Richmond at the start of this spring had one healthy start in a Phillies B squad game and looked great. He was enthused afterwards. He was hitting 92 mph and spotting his breaking pitches for strikes. Then mid-spring he went through a dead-arm period and by the time he bounced back was optioned to Triple-A Vegas. In '11 there's a chance Jays' fans will see him later in the year, but in 2012 and beyond, he may have to find another team as the torrent of Jays' young starting pitchers sweeps over him.

As for salary, yes, any major-league call-ups during the year are pro-rated off of the minimum salary which is $400,000 plus a 2010 cost of living percentage bump.

The 40-man roster players have different rules for service time. Six-year free agent contracts are guaranteed and those players can't be sent out without their permission. Players who are arbitration-eligible are governed by minor-league options, but if they are sent out, their contracts stay at the major-league numbers. Players with five-plus years of service must give their permission to be sent out. Any player from pure rookie to arb-eligible players are generally working on split contracts where if they are sent to the minors, receive minor-league salaries for the time they are there, pro-rated. Triple A minimum is $32,500 for a rookie to that level and can reach $125,000 for certain veteran six-year minor-leaguers. It's a five-month season.

Blue Jays Q&A with Richard Griffin

Jays mailbag: A championship team needs ...

The Jays announced this week that they have sold out the home opener at the Rogers Centre on Friday, April 1 against the Twins which is proof positive that fans are buying into the two-year-old program of GM Alex Anthopoulos and President Paul Beeston.

There have been no unrealistic promises of contending this year but yet fans have responded to sell out – at least for the opener. For the first time in a long time, major-league baseball is opening the season on a weekend, something they should have done long ago.

How long the fans stay faithful and believe in their Jays is another story. Hey, the Leafs have surged into 10th place in the conference. Gotta plan the parade route.

The Jays have a rugged early-season schedule in April/May that includes 20 road games among the first 31 contests, with a west-coast swing and stops in New York, Texas, Boston and Tampa. It will be an interesting baseball season with a wide range of victory totals possible for a still-building home team.

For all you fantasy baseball experts the Canadian Baseball Hall of Fame has an interesting fundraising idea. The Hall and its president, Tom Valcke, have organized a pool in which fans can choose their own team of major-leaguers for the regular season and contribute $10 to the excellent, non-profit organization located in St. Marys, ON.

The 2011 pool is offering more than $1,200 worth of prizes, including a very unique prize to the champion - a limited edition special bat created by the Hall of Fame bearing the signatures of Canada's three MVPs, Larry Walker, Justin Morneau, and Joey Votto. Check it out online at http://baseballhalloffame.ca/ if you gert a chance.

On to the mailbag.  

Q. Hey Richard. Very much enjoy your insights into all things Blue Jays and MLB. Over here in the Middle East it's nothing but football (soccer) and cricket, sigh.

My question relates to the Jays' coaching staff. Given the changes and how instrumental they will be to a relatively young team, what are your thoughts thus far in spring taining and how do you think this coaching staff (manager included) matches up against other teams' coaching staffs? And finally, is there a coaching staff over the years in all of MLB that you would pay special tribute to? Thanks.

Paul M, Manama, Bahrain

A. This Jays' coaching staff is a teaching staff and that's what the Jays needed at this time. The manager John Farrell is a former pitching coach who knows that side of the game but also knows what kind of offensive teams gave his Red Sox pitching staffs trouble in preparing for them. That is why he wants to integrate an aggressive running gameplan into the Jays' offensive mix.

The pitching coach Bruce Walton is entering his second year as the main pitching guy after years as the bullpen coach. He knows his pitchers' individual personalities and cares about their health above all. The staff, especially the starters, are very close to each other and to their coach.

Hitting coach Dwayne Murphy gets much credit for Jose Bautista's dramatic power surge, but his philosophy of hitting the pitch you are looking for no matter when it comes in the pitch sequence has helped guys like John McDonald as well as the power guys. If it's not a pitch that you were expecting, just take it until you have two strikes. Murphy also has helped guys get ready on time and be in hitting position earlier to get the bat head out front for maximum power.

It's been a long time since the Jays have had a catching guy per se, but Don Wakamatsu has spent countless hours in discussion with rookie J.P. Arencibia, helping him with the finer points of the game. He is a former major-league manager with the M's.

Luis Rivera is in his first year with the Jays, but has been on a coaching staff at the major-league level with the Indians and has managed himself at AA-New Hampshire where he forged a strong relationship with guys like Kyle Drabek, Eric Thames, Adeiny Hechavarria and others. He is a former major-league shortstop and pays close attention especially to the middle of the infield.

Brian Butterfield's ongoing resume includes work with a young Derek Jeter in the Yankee system in the early '90s and continues today for his fourth Jays manager as a valuable instructor on the mental side and the mechanics of playing the infield. As a third-base coach, he's not afraid of challenging the defence by going first to third, second to home, but if his runner is thrown out, there's usually a calculated-risk explanation, depending on game situation, score, runner and defender.

The Jays have never really had a hands-on outfield instructor, but this spring Torey Lovullo has been tenacious with the outfielders, constantly hitting them groundballs in the outfield from behind a screen during batting practice, taking Travis Snider through exhausting throwing repetitions as other players shag during b.p. and preaching hitting the cutoff man, throwing to the right base and proper jumps and routes to flyballs. Lovullo has nine years as a minor-league manager, the last five at Triple-A.

Pat Hentgen is a rookie bullpen coach working with a veteran bullpen. He will learn from Farrell and Walton and can contribute from his experiences as a Jays star and Cy Young winner. He knows he's learning but brings a mental preparation expertise to the task. At least four of these coaches could go on to become major-league managers. Not sure about the manager yet, but this is one of the best coaching staffs in baseball right now. It's hard to compare going back in time, but in this day and age, with players rushed through the minors, the need for a teaching staff is as great as it has ever been. That's what the Jays have.   

Q. Hi Rich. Adam Lind's conversion over to 1B seemed to be a big topic of discussion as spring training rolled around, yet I haven't read or heard much in terms of his development so far there. How has he progressed at that position, seeing as how opening day is less than two weeks away? Thanks.

Thomas Turniawan, Antigonish, NS

A. Lind's conversion has gone just about as expected for a man that has played the position before in college, but obviously not at this level. His best asset is handling throws in the dirt, although he fanned on a sinker from Yunel Escobar at shortstop on Wednesday night. His feeds to pitchers covering the bag have been good, far better than last year when he forced David Purcey into the air and he came down on the corner of the bag and sprained his ankle. He is better going towards the line to field groundballs, rather than going to his right. He is not graceful looking, but there are no style points. His throws to second base are not always precise, but he is not afraid of the throw.

Coach Brian Butterfield works with him constantly before practice and during batting practice hitting him countless groundballs and preaching footwork. The only criticism is that Lind did not take the knowledge of his impending position change to get a head start with the glove either at Instructional League or in any winter league.

Q. It seems like the prevailing rationale for keeping Jo-Jo Reyes in the running for the No. 5 spot in the rotation is his lack of options. Why should that drive the Blue Jays decision making? Why not base it solely on performance? It almost seems a bit unfair to Jesse Litsch -- a guy who seems recovered from injury and has more of an established track record.

Jay V, Petrolia

A. Manager John Farrell has called the lack of any remaining minor-league options when there's a decision to be made a “tiebreaker” that it only comes into play if there are two players of similar talent and one of them has options. Then he would go to the minors.

Farrell swears it will be the best 12 pitchers that break with the team and nothing else. That's a noble, very difficult goal, but it's what the Jays are saying. Guys with no options like Reyes and David Purcey are inventory and why would the organization want to give up useful inventory for nothing.

The more good players you control the better. There was an Expos player in the '80s who upon signing his first big contract decided his wife after wearing an outfit once should throw it out instead of having it dry cleaned. Sure she always looked good in new clothes, but was it the most efficient plan for her closet inventory over time? She  waived her wardrobe once a week without thinking about or worrying about the future. If you let a major-league player go right now because you have something similar on hand, that's short-sighted.

In any event, he 26-year-old Reyes has been a revelation at camp including his six strong innings vs. the Yankees on Wednesday. He has overcome knee injuries from the past to earn a spot on the roster. The Jays' lack of options, the lack of ability to send him out to the minors without passing him through waivers (where he would surely be claimed) was a factor, but his performance on the mound this spring meant that even without the injury to Brandon Morrow, Reyes was going to be on the team. It will be an interesting decision when Morrow returns to the rotation, but it's likely Reyes will stay.

Q. Richard. With David Cooper having such a strong spring, do you think that if the Adam Lind test at first base fails, could you see a Cooper promotion in May/June, and move Lind back to DH? With Cooper in the lineup it would add another left-handed bat to a right-handed heavy lineup. Do you think this would happen about the same time as a Lawrie callup?

Scott Cochrane, Niagara on the Lake

A. Edwin Encarnacion has been promised regular at-bats to re-sign with the Jays. If the Lind first-base conversion failed, Edwin would get the first shot.

David Cooper has certainly opened eyes this spring with John Farrell wondering out loud how a guy with his sweet swing was ever a .250 hitter in the minors. Cooper is just 24-years-old and just completed a second stalled season at AA-New Hampshire. However while hitting .257, he doubled his home run total of the year before to 20. At Tampa this spring he hit a bomb over the right field bleachers that landed on the concourse and bounced out into the street. He was selected 17th overall in the 2008 draft and that's a lot of pressure for a young player that starts out slowly in his career. In that draft, Brett Lawrie was chosen by Milwaukee 16th overall and Brett Wallace No. 13 by the Cards. The Jays had liked both those guys as their own first pick.

Q. Hi Richard. Love and look forward to this column every week! My question pertains to having multiple coaches. There is a lot of discussion on the effect Dwayne Murphy had on the majority of Blue Jays hitters last season. His philosophy has clearly helped the majority of our hitters, at least in terms of power production.

However, given that Adam Lind and Aaron Hill had a much worse showing last year, is it possible that Murphy's approach just doesn't work for everyone? I know there are a number of factors involved in a player's performance, but it seems unusual that there is a clear division between the players that performed best last season from those that excelled in 09. Perhaps this is just coincidence but I'm curious: has any organization toyed with the idea of having two hitting coaches? This would allow players to choose who they feel most comfortable receiving instruction from or to get a fresh perspective when they are slumping.

Ryan Brooks, Toronto

A. That's an idea whose time will never come. In 2009, Cito Gaston talked about having three hitting coaches on the team, Gene Tenace, Murphy and Cito himself. That only worked for the Jays because all three men were preaching the same message of going to the plate with a gameplan, looking for your pitch and hitting it as hard as you can no matter what the count. In 2010 Tenace left the staff and the basic message remained the same. In '09, both Lind and Hill had solid years. In 2010 they tailed off although each hit 20-plus homers. Good hitting is so much about the mental approach and going to the plate with confidence. Having two different hitting coaches borders on panic and lack of confidence.

Q. What part of the Blue Jays team do you think they need to improve in order to compete for a championship. I think the team looks really good but just needs sometime to mature.

Craig Robinson, Swift Current

A. The Jays need a stud No. 1 starter that has done it before, with 230-plus innings and regularly working seven innings per start. They had that man in Roy Halladay but that wasn't going to work anymore. When they traded him to the Phillies it meant taking a two-year step backwards. This is year two. That stud pitcher may be on hand but the Jays won't win anything until he steps up.

The Jays also need a reliable top of the order, first and second place hitters that set the table regularly for the 3-4-5 guys putting pressure on the pitcher and defence with the threat of speed, ensuring that an opponent can't pitch around the middle of the order because there are runners on base. The protection for Jose Bautista will come as much from those batting in front of him as from those batting behind. The Jays to win need a catcher that can lead a pitching staff with confidence but can also deliver some offence. J.P. Arencibia is supposed to be that guy, but is still working on all aspects of that description. 

Q. Recently it has been suggested that both Kyle Drabek and Brandon Morrow would benefit from throwing to veteran catcher Molina rather than rookie catcher J.P. Arencibia. Arencibia's struggling this spring, not only with handling breaking pitches and opposing baserunners, but also with his batting average that hovers around .100. Will Molina be sharing starting catcher duties with Arencibia as the 2011 season begins? What's the prognosis for Arencibia?

Andrew W.,Tampa Bay

A. It looks like Arencibia will begin the season catching games for Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil and Jesse Litsch, while Jose Molina will handle Kyle Drabek and the Morrow/Reyes combo. When Morrow returns and if Reyes is still in the rotation, Jo-Jo would likely go over to Arencibia. If that 3-of-5 thing continued all year it would give Arencibia about 97 starts behind the plate. That could change as the season goes along and he picks up the nuances that he lacks right now.

Defensively, Arencibia has been throwing well. He has boxed some balls around as a receiver, not because of an inability to handle breaking pitches but because he needed to soften his hands and relax. He is doing a better job at that as the spring goes along as well as improving his glove action at the bottom of the strike zone and getting away from stabbing at the ball giving umpires a bad impression of certain pitches, losing strikes for his staff. Defensively he is getting the hands-on treatment from coach Don Wakamatsu and can often be seen sitting at Molina's locker discussing catching. His hitting is the major issue right now, but the Jays are committed to him with no time frame. They point out how John Buck had a slow start for two months in 2010 and they stayed with him and he became an all-star.

Jays mailbag: Lawrie shows he's close, very close

The Jays have had a relatively injury free spring thus far and that has as much to do with youth as it does anything else.

John Farrell on Wednesday insisted that he feels he has a solid offensive nucleus at every position and that allows flexibility, meaning that he could afford to carry one or two light-hitting or slumping bats in the lineup.

That being said, there is thankfully room for the classy John McDonald on occasion filling in around the infield, or room for a struggling J.P. Arencibia out of the chute even combined with the ever-light hitting Jose Molina.

They can afford to be patient with one or two slumps.

An interesting exercise, though, is to go around the diamond offensively and ask the question: Who would the Jays miss the most if he was injured or disabled for a significant period of time.

At catcher, Molina could take over from Arencibia and they would eventually find a way to promote Travis D'Arnaud, depending on how far into the season it was.

If Lind went down at first base, Edwin Encarnacion could handle it.

If Jose Bautista was injured it would speed the promotion of Brett Lawrie.

If any of the outfielders or the DH went down, that means Scott Podsednik or Corey Patterson could step up, or else they would do the Bautista/Lawrie position/promotion shuffle again.

But right now, the toughest Jays to replace for any significant length of time are the two guys up the middle in Yunel Escobar and Aaron Hill. Johnny Mac could fill in but eventually they would need to find an option that can provide more offence and still play major-league D. There is talent in the minors at the middle infield positions, but is it ready for prime time?

On to the mailbag.

Q. Hey Richard! I am really enjoying being able to read the boxscores again!! Spring is in the air!

I read a piece today that Kevin Slowey might be on the trade block in Minnesota. I also seemed to remember that they had been kicking tires on Jason Frasor last year. Any chance of the Jays going after another young (26), controllable (2 more years of arbitration) starting pitcher?

Also, have you heard any rumblings on a possible deal for a third baseman, or a new home for Juan Rivera?? Enjoy the Florida sun!

Jon Empringham, Woodstock

A. As for the case for acquiring Slowey, see the blog item I posted on Wednesday evening.

Sure the Jays have an overabundance of bullpen guys, but remember that the Twins did not value Jon Rauch enough to re-sign him during the winter, so now would he be among the type of guys that they want to give up their sixth starter for.

The 26-year-old Slowey is a guy with major-league credentials, but in the long term is he even a better fit with the Jays than some of the guys fighting for the fourth and fifth starter's spots right now?

As I say in the earlier blog posting, it would make some sense for the Jays if it was setting up another move for GM Alex Anthopoulos involving another current starting pitcher.There are no fresh rumblings about a trade for a third baseman.

I believe that the coaching staff is really high on Brett Lawrie's future and the future is near. I believe that Juan Rivera is merely keeping the right field seat warm for the day in mid-season when Lawrie is promoted to play third base and Jose Bautista is shifted back to right. That is the alignment that Jays' fans want to see sooner rather than later. That is the alignment that will be part of the contending Jays in a year, moving forward.

Forget about trading for a third baseman. The future of the position is already here.

Lawrie has been impressive this spring, making plays that nobody thought he was prepared to make, yet.

Q. Hi Richard. So one of the guys that seems to be getting a lot of play and doing well with the Jays this spring training is Eric Thames. What do you think his chances are of filling the hole at first base at some point this season?

Jon Weier, Toronto

A. Eric Thames has opened eyes this spring and is etting a lot of playing time. The northern California native had a great year at AA-New Hampshire in 2010 and then worked on his own with an unusual batting coach, YouTube, over the off-season, checking out videos of Jose Bautista and J.P. Arencibia among others watching for an improved timing, getting prepared earlier, the key to J-Bau's tremendous power surge.

He is not the fastest runner, the most powerful hitter, hit for the highest average, the best defender or have the best arm, but he does everything well enough to play in the majors at some point.

I don't see him as a first baseman, but he will make it as an outfielder at some point. Nice kid too.

Q. How patient are the Jays going to be in regards to Hill's poor hitting average?? One month? Two months? Or the entire season?

Brian Saville, Peterborough

A. The key with Hill will be whether the Jays decide to pick up his options for 2012-14, which they have to decide by Opening Day.

If they wait until the season starts, then they must decide by the start of next year's free agent deadline whether they want to pick up 2012-13 options. If not he becomes a free agent after 2011.

My personal belief is that the Jays will let this year's deadline pass and then they will watch Hill as if it is a free agent year for him. The pressure, albeit a positive pressure, will be on the player and therefore, I believe they need to stick with Hill as a starter all year, no matter the struggles, and see what they have moving forward.

If they benched him in a season in which they are trying to find things out, that would be counter-productive.

Many players take a deep breath and play their best when they know they are playing for the next contract. Basically that is where Hill would find himself if the Jays decided not to pick up all three years of the option by April 1.If he plays well, they can lock up the reasonable option years through 2013 and play it by ear after that.

Q. How has David Purcey looked? Everyone seems ready to annoint him as the Scott Downs replacement, but Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco fare pretty well against left-handed batters too. Is Purcey going to be consistent enough to be counted on over the course of a season?

Jason Sinnarajah, San Francisco

A. People should remember that at 29, which is the age Purcey will be pitching at this year, not even Scott Downs had become the replacement for Scott Downs. It wasn't until he was 31 that Downs became the reliable lefty specialist and part-time closer that he became.

Purcey in his last appearance walked all three batters that he faced, but that is the battle that he always has. He needs to be more consistent so that in game situations the manager can rely on him to come in and throw strikes.

Manager John Farrell addressed the Purcey question on Wednesday: “It comes down to consistency. You can look back to a number of different relievers. If they become an everyday reliever or more established reliever it can happen at all stages. Some come later. Some come earlier. We're not near the spot where we're going to turn the page and give up on him. We just have to get him in a position to deliver more consistent strikes.”

Regarding having a second lefty Farrell said: “It would be helpful, particularly when you look at our division. To go in without some depth left-handed is a little bit of a naked feeling. That doesn't mean we're going to take left-handers just for the sake of taking left-handers. We'll take the best pitchers, but with some balance we're probably a better team.”

As for righties that get lefties out, Francisco is one but he's going to close. Carlos Villanueva and Shawn Camp are pretty good, also. As for a second lefty, maybe Marc Rzepczynski or Jo-Jo Reyes. The other plethora of lefty guys have been pitching themselves out of the picture as time goes by.

Q. I wish that MLB would go to the DH everywhere, as pitchers never hitting in the minors makes them extra useless in MLB.

Drop The Gloves, via Twitter

A. I believe that as long as Bud Selig is the commissioner that the DH will never be a part of NL play. But of course he's leaving office as early as next year. The next guy in that office may consider it but not before the next Basic Agreement is negotiated, not the one that expires in 2011.

I used to be a NL supporter of no DH all the way, but after being in the AL covering the Jays and the World Series for 17 years now, I have turned around and believe one set of rules is the only answer and since the union will never allow the DH to be banished (they are usually high-priced veteran guys that help set the salary bar at a higher level) then I am all for the DH everywhere.

Most pitchers are athletes, but the fact that from high school through the minors has the DH makes it silly to make them hit in the majors.

Q. Hi Richard. When anyone brings up the benefits of the Blue Jays being in the AL Central you always point out that the Blue Jays would lose out on revenue by reducing the number of home games against the Yankees and Red Sox.

While this is true, I feel that the reason for the terrible attendance at Rogers Centre is not only the lack of playoffs since 1993 but also the lack of meaningful games in August or September since that time. It appears that fans have simply lost hope with the Blue Jays and it is hard to argue against that.

If the Jays were in the Central I find it difficult to believe that they would not have made the playoffs at least a few times in the last two decades.

Every year games would actually mean something as it would not be a foregone conclusion that they would miss the playoffs. Give the fans hope and I would think that instead of having crowds of 11,000 against less desirable teams the crowds would probably at least be in the 20,000 or above range thereby more than offsetting the effect of having the Yanks and Red Sox here 6 less times per year. Do you agree that Jays fans have lost hope (remember it has been two decades)?

Greg Huzel, Winnipeg

A. Jays fans have not lost hope. Hope is just hiding out in the witness protection program.

Fans were brainwashed under the J.P. Ricciardi/Paul Godfrey regime into blaming the Red Sox and Yankees and their huge payrolls for the competition woes that the Jays have had.

In the meantime, other medium payroll teams have gone on and advanced to the World Series from the American League.

The new regime of Alex Anthopoulos/Paul Beeston believes that if you've got to beat these guys anyway to get to the Series, why not play in the same division and just outwork, outscout asnd outsmart them. It can be done. The problem with believing that being in contention in August will increase attendance significantly is that historically it's never happened before.

The Jays need to reach the playoffs and then they will be able to sell tickets in that next offseason and have 1.6 million sold by Opening Day. You can never rely on the walkup crowd to make your attendance; it's the pre-sales, season and groups, areas that the Jays have struggled with since the '94 strike.

Q. Richard, A comment and a question. I spent a week at spring training this year and I'm sold. I want to do it every year.

I recommend checking out the Jays (meagre) practice facility. Fans can really get up close and interact with the players. In fact I snuck into their gym and got the clubbies to give me some free Jays paraphenalia. But that's a long story. Great trip all around.

Do you see the Jays giving Lawrie the third baseman gig? He's done nothing but impress thus far at camp, and he looks like the hardest working guy on the roster.

Peter Maslow, Hamilton

A. Hey, I have never been able to sneak into the gym. I am jealous.

As for Lawrie, I have a feeling there is a significant voice in the coaches room and front office that would love to see him in the majors sooner rather than later.

He is a pure athlete and so the transition to third base has seemed effortless. He makes that quick feed to second base as well as anyone I 've seen in a while and has good baseball instincts. He works hard and prepares hard.

So what if one time somebody duct taped huge vats of liquor to his hand. Who hasn't had that happen? My thinking is that will let him get his feet under him at AAA-Las Vegas and then bring him up and move Jose Bautista back to right.

Q. Dear Richard: My family will be vacationing in southern New Hampshire and Boston in August. We have already purchased Fisher Cats and Red Sox tickets. Do you know of any restaurants or other attractions in and around both Manchester, N.H., and Boston, Mass., that we should experience?

Paul Raphael, Mississauga

A. The best idea is to log onto a website like www.HelloManchester.com and see what strikes your fancy. Eric Thames spent last summer there and described it as “like Boston in the woods”. Thames said everything is “wicked this and wicked that with a lot of Sam Adams beer.” As for Boston, the Paul Revere Trail and Harvard University are can't miss. The original Cheers bar is disappointing. Fenway Park and the surrounding neighbourhood with its famed restauraunts and bars are wicked.

Jays mailbag: Inside the Michael Young trade demand

One of the wonderfully unique aspects of major-league spring training is to wander around the camps of the long-established iconic franchises and see the old-time superstars of the game in uniform, wanting to help out, wanting to stay connected, always eager to stop and chat baseball. For many former greats, baseball is for life.

Such was the case at Tigers camp in Lakeland on Tuesday, standing out near the home clubhouse in the right field corner watching the rain pelt down and having Hall-of-Fame outfielder Al Kaline push through the door and wander by a group of Toronto scribes, in full uniform.

I shook his hand and asked Kaline his thoughts about the late Duke Snider. It should be noted that Snider and Kaline shared the stage in 1980, when both were greeted to Cooperstown and baseball immortality.   

“Duke was a great gentleman,” Kaline said. “When you go into the Hall at the same time, you sort of get a bond between the two of us. We got to be pretty close and for the couple of years he came back (to Cooperstown) it was always great seeing him. He was a super guy, just a great man.”

“The ability to treat people with respect is just the way I've always seen him. He was perceived as a real friendly guy and he appreciated the fact that he was able to play baseball. In New York, in the heyday of baseball (with three teams) it was Mickey, Willie and The Duke. It was a great song and it was tremendous for him to be compared to those two great players.”

There is no doubt that 1980 was a great year for the Hall-of-Fame.

On to the mailbag.

Q. This is not about the Blue Jays but rather your article on Duke Snider...a man who along with Gordie Howe, was my childhood hero. Here's a little story that tells all about the Duke. When my son was 10 years old, I planned to take he and his pals to an Expos game. On a whim, I checked the Montreal telephone directory and lo and behold, there's Duke Snider's name and number. (Now tell me, how many celebrities list their contact information in the phone book? Most are hiding their identity.) Anyway, Duke agreed to meet me, my son and his pals before the game, he spoke with the kids, signed their baseball gloves and overall, was just a great guy (not to mention giving me a thrill). A real gentleman and a great player.
Paul Newman, Oakville

A. I have thought further about Duke Snider, the person, and what likely made him so revered and respected. He is not unique in what he did in social situations, but is still special as a sports icon. I'm a keen observer of life and there are a lot of celebrities who treat people well in one-on-one conversation by self-effacingly, with doses of false humility, taking a step down, trying to convince their audience that, hey we're all the same, we all put pants on one leg at a time. That's good but when the moment is over, they know it's not true.

There are other celebrities like Duke Snider who was comfortable with his status in life as a sports hero and didn't try to hide it. He tried to share it. For the short time they are together, athletes like Duke elevate their new friend du jour to their own level and make them feel for a shining moment that they also are very special, more important than when they entered the room. Duke never apologized for celebrity and was always willing to share it generously. 

Q. Richard. Your story on the 'Duke' was superb, I listened for years to Dave & Duke on CFCF in Montreal and he was a great announcer and 'colour commentator'. It is truly a shame that he won’t make the Hall of Fame with Dave Van Horne. As an old Dodgers fan, the Duke must be close to the last of the Brooklyn players left. It’s always sad to say goodbye to those players who meant so much to us when we were growing up.
David Delcloo, 
Kingston

A. What's amazing to me is that the list of Expos' TV analysts before Duke Snider included Don Drysdale, Pee Wee Reese and Jackie Robinson. That's a pretty impressive list. As far as the remaining living Dodgers from the final Brooklyn team in 1957 before they moved to Los Angeles, that list includes a higher total than you might imagine: Charlie Neal, Gino Cimoli, Don Zimmer, Randy Jackson, Joe Pignatano, Jim Gentile, Rod Miller, Don Newcombe, Denny McDevitt, Roger Craig, Sandy Koufax, Ed Roebuck, Carl Erskine, Ken Lehman, Bill Harris and Fred Kipp. As for Dodger fans, they are seemingly immortal.

Q. Hi Richard. Can you tell me why draft picks are never traded in baseball?
Thanks.
J. Fleming, Huntsville

A. I admire major-league baseball for not allowing the trading of draft picks. It would allow bad general managers to compensate for incompetence in scouting by trading their long-term choices for instant gratification thus burying their franchise in perpetuity.

Shrewd GMs could all of a sudden trade minor-league excess depth for future draft choices, while bad GMs could cover up incompetence with temporary Band-aid solutions.

In fact, the current system of free agency Types A & B is almost like trading picks. It's a system that allows teams compensation picks for lost free agents, helping teams that are losing players either obtain extra picks for their departing player or else have a floor of talent from which to operate in terms of trade demands.

For example at the July 31 trade deadline if you are looking to trade a Type A free agent for a half season, you know you must give up at least the equivalent of a late-first-round pick and a second round talent from your system. It won't change soon.

Q. Almost 20 years now since we had baseball in October. I would like to know who to blame for that. Was it Paul Beeston and Pat Gillick who, hot with recent success, lobbied for inclusion with the two-headed monster of the East or did that decision come out of the league? Flip the Jays and the Indians and Toronto gets a history of playoff races and good rivalries with Detroit, Chicago and Minnesota.
J Galli, Windsor

A. That's a very interesting question trying to trace the demise of the Jays since the strike in '94. The Jays won back-to-back World Series in 1992-93 then came the strike and the change in division and playoff structure.

Since the addition of two teams to the MLB playoff hunt in 1995, the brainchild of Bud Selig, in the ensuing 16 years only the Yankees have ever won back-to-back World Series (1998-2000).

As for Beeston or Gillick being at fault in deciding they wanted to join the AL East, I would prefer to blame world geography for the alignment that has the Jays tilting at windmills. It's pretty well impossible to argue that Detroit or Chicago or Cleveland is farther east than Toronto. I Googled it.

Besides, both former Jays executives realized that nine home games with the Red Sox and the Yankees each could make their attendance numbers sing, which is worth more than the possibility of winning a wild-card in the weaker AL Central. There would be no guarantees in that circumstance, ether. The fact is even with a second wild card being hypothetically added going back to '95, the Jays give the standings would only have made the playoffs once.   

Q. Hi Richard. A few weeks ago, you piqued my interest with the possible interest by the Jays in Michael Young. Whatever happened? Why did he remain with the Rangers if there is no home for him there? Love your column and thanks for your insights.
Ryan Maxwell, Meaford

A. The Jays were definitely interested in Young and inquired at the winter meetings in December after the Adrian Beltre signing by the Rangers. It would have been $48 million for the next three years, minus what the Rangers were willing to pay, but the Rangers had with sincerity told him they wanted him to be DH, super-sub. He is a clubhouse leader for the young Rangers. After that while the Rangers furtively explored trade options and pissed him off, the Jays remained on the periphery.

When Young found out about the back-door negotiations for his services, he then demanded a trade. The Rangers have tried hard to heal the wound and it seems under control, but if Jays' GM Alex Anthopoulos could find a good deal for his club, especially if it included a third team with multiple players, then he would go back to work. Young is not necessarily a Ranger for the opener.   

Q. After enjoying the NBA all-star festivities, it got me thinking about the MLB game. Why don't they try to mix things up by adding different skills competitions instead of just a home run contest? Why not get some of the other players involved, perhaps the most accurate throw from the outfield, or fastest around the bases? Any ideas?
Matt Hazel, Antigonish

A. I'm pretty sure that at a particular all-star game in the '80s there were other skills competitions than the Home Run Derby. If I recall correctly, someone got hurt by over-throwing or running too hard.

The extra baseball skills would be far more stressful and dangerous to valuable team properties as far as expensive players are concerned than the NBA's skill set. How do you hurt yourself by shooting three-pointers or throwing a bounce pass into a barrel? But running the bases and throwing from the corner, especially the length of time that TV draws out these events. The home run derby concept goes back to the days of Mickey Mantle and Henry Aaron as a TV event and the fact of the matter is the Monday ratings at the All-Star Game are great. If it ain't broke...

Q. Richard. Hope you're enjoying spring training in Florida. I see that Baseball America has released their top-100 prospects list. I'm interested in your take on the list. Kyle Drabek, Travis D'Arnaud, Brett Lawrie and Deck McGuire made the list. But Anthony Gose, J.P. Arencibia, and Adeiny Hechevaria were nowhere to be found. There were 15 pitchers rated higher than Drabek. Our top-rated prospect at No. 29 is the lowest we've had in a few years. Is our farm system truly on the upswing or is it overhyped?
Frank S, Toronto

A. First of all you have to consider that on a Top 100 list with 30 major-league teams that the average per organization would be 3.33 players per organization. The Jays have four.  So it would be pretty tough to be that much far above the average considering the Jays' farm system in the recent past has been ranked in the 20s out of 30 for the past four years. For me, in the top 100 prospects, I would have five Jays – Drabek, Lawrie, Gose, Arencibia and Hechavarria. It's a very hit-and-miss list almost as tough as when you are drafting players...but not quite. D'Arnaud is very mobile and athletic behind the plate but has a long way to go offensively and rating him in the Top 100 is a leap of faith. Arencibia has already been PCL MVP and should be rated ahead of him. McGuire is a nice prospect but has a lot to learn and before he approaches the majors and may in fact be passed by the more experienced Zach Stewart and a bunch of other Jays' 2010 June picks, some of whom were invited to minor-league mini-camp. Regular readers know how strongly I feel about Gose's future. Good kid. Good player.  

Q. In your years since covering the team as a columnist, would you say that (in Travis Snider, Scott Podsednik, Corey Patterson, and Juan Rivera) this is the weakest of all Jays' outfields, as far as home run power and offence/arm-strength is concerned?
Darrell Holtze, Guelph

A. You forgot about Rajai Davis. However I don't think the addition of Davis improves the scenario for the outfield in the skill areas you describe. Without the departed Vernon Wells and without third baseman Jose Bautista in the Jays' outfield, at the moment it is not very good. This group in any Fantasy League advice magazine does not feature an outfielder in the top 50. Yes it might be the worst going into a season, but if Snider becomes the player he is expected to, it may improve.

Q. I was reading recently a statistic that said only 5 per cent of young prospects who sign a contract with an MLB team actually get to the bigs. Makes we wonder about all the talk about the renewed vigour in the Jays farm system. Realistically, how many new stars are we likely to be seeing per year come out of the farm system? And of the high profile more advanced prospects like Gose, Lawrie, Hechevarria etc., what percentage of that crowd are likely to meet the high expectations that are held for them?
Thanks.
Donald Wright, Los Gatos

A. That's a very good comment and helps to explain the reason why the Jays were right to sign Jose Bautista and not even think about waiting until the trade deadline to obtain two or three prospects.

The Jays already are suddenly deep at Double and Triple-A. Why keep feeding the minor-league beast when optimistically, only about three players from each level are going to make a true impact in the majors.

However, it should be considered that baseball has 50 rounds times 30 teams, plus sandwich compensation which amounts to 1,530 players drafted per year, some 1,200 of whom sign. Looking back unscientifically, it seems about an average of four or five players per franchise ever reach the majors. That's higher than the NBA which of course has two rounds and 12 players.

The Jays farm system is certainly re-invigourated in the last two years and it's good that fanatic Jays fans seem to have as much interest as they do in the guys on the farm. The fun now is in following the many potential hopefuls throughout the year and trying to guess which players are going to make it. Just remember when the experts are rating the Top 100 it's all an educated guess.


Q. Hello Mr. Griffin. Thanks as always for you information and insight into the Jays. Would the Jays ever consider having Kyle Drabek start the season in the bullpen? Similar to Chapman did with the Reds last season? This could give him MLB experience and make the 4th and 5th starters decision easier? Thanks.
Phil McCloskey, Orangeville

A. The Jays would never consider moving Drabek to the bullpen, even though one of their many young starters is eventually going to become the closer.

Keeping him on the major-league roster as a long reliever would be counter-productive not only to Drabek but to the Jays. It always seems like long relievers enter after a starter has been ya-hammered in a game and, in that case, where's the improvement, the learning curve.

There's an uncertain pitching pattern in long relief and never seems a stressful situation that is the difference between winning and losing when you enter a game with your team far behind. In Drabek's situation or anyone that soon has a chance to be a major-league starter, the season is long and every year a major-league team needs at least a depth chart of nine starters. Better to have Drabek pitching every five days at Triple-A and catch a flight from Vegas in a moment of need than have him waiting on the sidelines in Toronto with no flow to his year.     

Live at 1 p.m.: Blue Jays spring training Q&A

Jays mailbag: Bautista, Bautista and more Bautista

At this moment I'm still at home gratefully packing for a 4:20 p.m. Air Canada flight to Dunedin on Wednesday aternoon heading to spring training.

It's actually the latest date in February for a Florida departure for this columnist since my frst year in Toronto in 1995 at which time the real players were regrettably still on strike and the “replacement player” experiment was being peddled to a skeptical, savvy, not-buying-into-it public.

The Jays' organization, to its credit, was preparing back then to play the entire '95 home schedule at Dunedin Stadium, with Bob Didier as manager, allowing real manager Cito Gaston to maintain his dignity and credibility -- and lower his handicap.

The real major-league Jays players meanwhile were forced to practice on their own at local high schools and public parks waiting for the strike to be settled...which it was on the eve of phony Opening Day in Miami.

My personal crisis that spring, having spent 23 years in the National League and then coming to Toronto, was that when I showed up at that particular day's ever-changing Jays' workout venue somewhere in the Dunedin area, the only guy I recognized was Dave Martinez, an outfielder who had just recently played for the Expos.

The Globe & Mail's beat guy Larry Millson, who I had known well from multiple beer-soaked sunrises on long Montreal homestands during Expos' pennant races in the early '80s, laughed his butt off at this rookie columnist's daily dilemma but he always ended up helping, quietly slipping a note with the Jays' proper identities (I think).

The season finally opened in late April and there has been labour peace in MLB ever since, although the Jays have never recovered from the season-ticket hit they took that year. Thursday at 1 p.m. I'll open from Dunedin with a live chat online. On to the mailbag.        

Q. My question is in regard to Jose Bautista's new contract. Often teams will give a player a multi-year contract where the player's salary increases over the last few years. With the Jays not planning on competing this year, and extra money to spend now, why couldn't the Jays do the reverse? Give Bautista the same $64-million deal but pay him around $20 million this year and/or next year, then go down from there. This would give the Jays more financial flexibility when they are that "one player away" from really competing and need the extra money to make a big signing.

Josh Cymbalista, Thornhill

A. The Jays' $1 million buyout of Bautista's $14 million option year in 2016 actually makes the official guaranteed value of the five-year contract $65 million, with the average annual value being $13 million.

The details start with an $8 million payment in 2011, followed by $14 million for each of the finaI four guaranteed years. Then comes the option season, by which time Bautista will be a 35-years-old.

I originally had the same thought as you in that given the money they saved on Wells, Overbay, Downs, Gregg et al this year, the Jays might have been wise to front-end load the Bautista contract, with the least money being doled out in 2014-15, but they didn't.

Then I re-thought that logic, trying to place myself in GM Alex Anthopoulos's shoes. When you think about it realistically, with no salary cap in baseball to worry about, it doesn't make much difference in what order you pay the money out. Rogers ownership quite frankly has the financial wherewithal to put any or all of the $65M aside right now in an interest-bearing account if they so desired. There is also the factor that the Jays already had a $5 million obligation to send to the Angels for Vernon Wells. Combine that debt with Bautista's '11 money, and it adds up to $13 million.

The other thing is Bautista was headed to arbitration at either $7.6 million or $10.5 million if they had not been able to work out the long-term deal. Perhaps Anthopoulos was concerned that in future years, if  he had started the Bautista contract with a $15 million season, that number might be used by future arbitration-eligible Jays as a precedent, complicating matters. Then again, it might just signal that Anthopoulos was still planning on the possibility of adding another big contract prior to this season.    

Q. Richard. My problem with the Bautista deal is not so much that he has no track record of producing at the level he did last year — it is that he has a lengthy track record of producing at an underwhelming level. To use an example close to home, Adam Lind had no track record of performing at the level he did in 2009 (.305 average, 35 home runs, 114 Rbis), and yet he signed for a steeply-discounted $18 million over four years. Why does Bautista, (who at some point in time over the course of this deal will become a diminishing asset) merit three times the amount given to a young player who appeared to be on the rise?

Neil Paris, Toronto

 

A. There is a huge, huge difference in the rationale and the amount in the Jays negotiating Bautista's five years plus an option contract as opposed to Lind's four years plus three options deal signed on the eve of opening day last year.

The four guaranteed years for Lind were his arbitration years leading up to free agency. He had nowhere to go. That's automatically a lower price than buying out years of free agency.

The Jays made sure they also built in club options for what would be Lind's first three years of free agency (2014-16) at below market value. On the other hand, with Bautista, only the 2011 season was an arbitration year, after which they will be paying him market value for the first four years buying up his free agency.

There's a dramatic difference in terms of the gross amount of money to be paid between the two men. It's forever a two-way street. There are different advantages built in to the process both for player and for team in the Lind and Bautista deals.

For Lind, he's getting more money up front taking the mystery out of his arb years and also does not have to worry about injuries because the money is guaranteed. For the Jays there is cost certainty for the four years of his obligation prior to free-agency, then  they also have him for three free agent seasons at a reasonable price ... or not.

They can always let him go if it's not working out production-wise or if there's long-term injury. With Bautista, he receives his guaranteed free agency reward a year before his free-agent class in a city and clubhouse of his choosing, while the Jays for their part  removed all question marks and uncertainty surrounding 2011 and now have a contract with a player they hope will be an offensive cornerstone, also tradeable down the road, if circumstances change.   

Q. Why are people comparing the Bautista deal to the one signed by Uggla? Uggla has not only posted exceptional numbers (career OPS 100 points higher than Bautista's) but has also been the model of consistency over the past 5 years all while playing in one of the game's worst-hitter parks.

More importantly, Uggla is a middle infielder, not a corner outfielder, which increases his value tremendously. Personally, I am stunned by how many fans (and often media members) do not understand the relationship that exists between a player’s position, offensive output, and overall value. Valuing a power hitting middle infielder the same as power hitting corner outfielder (with similiar stats) makes about as much sense as the Leafs’ "rebuilding" plan. $65 mil over 5 years for Bautista is insane given his career numbers (not solely 2010) and age.

Kyle Smith, Toronto 

A. On the other hand has Uggla ever had a 54 home run season with a .995 OPS? Face it, teams are supposed to be paying future money for future performance, not throwing future cash at the past. It's all well and good to point out Uggla's consistency and his four straight 30-homer seasons, but which of the two men has the higher ceiling moving forward? Which is a better two-way player? Which is more important to the fabric of his team? In looking at the dollars, people underestimate the importance of simlar age and years of service in determining market value of MLB players, as a factor over homers, RBIs slugging average and OPS. Uggla and Bautista were born eight months apart and were each playing their final arbitration year prior to free agency. That, even more than recent on-field results, is why the two players were compared when it came to contract time.

Q. True or False: Rajai Davis and Jose Bautista are the first outfield combo with the same birth date since Ozzie and Jose Canseco.

Tony Baer, Baraboo

A. However, it should be noted Jose Canseco's biceps, triceps, quadriceps and lats are far younger than Ozzie's, although both twins apparently attended the same driving school.

Q. Love the blog. Scott Podsednick hit .297 and stole 35 bases last season. Nobody on the Blue Jays matched him in either category. Why did have such trouble finding a major league job?

Josh Lavine, Toronto

A. Good question. One reason might be the re-occuring foot problem that sees Scott reporting to Jays camp on Wednesday in a walking cast to ease the pain of his plantar fasciitis.

Another reason he may have had trouble finding a job this winter can be found in his personal transactions history.

Since turning pro in 1994, the 34-year-old lefthanded hitter has been traded three times, was selected in the Rule 5 draft, was plucked off waivers once and has been a free agent six times. Even after batting leadoff for the World Series champion White Sox in '05 and hanging with them for another two seasons, he has continued to have trouble gaining respect.

Passed over and ignored? Consider that in this day and age, with 12 pitchers on most staffs, the versatility of bench players becomes of utmost importance. Podsednik is a lefthanded thrower that does not play first base or the infield. At age 34, earning over $1 million, there are younger, cheaper, more versatile options for teams to have coming off the bench. The Jays became a logical landing site after the Wells trade to the Angels and with new manager John Farrell's desire to upgrade team speed. He or Corey Patterson should make the team.  

Q. Hi Richard. I like the Bautista signing for all the reasons AA said. Another consideration is the if (maybe it's a big if) he hits say 40+ home runs in 2011, he's a $25-30 million Yankee or Red Sox playing against us in 2012. That would be a lose-lose for us.

Gerry Bleau

A. Hey, realize nobody has ever been able to post consecutive seasons of 40+ home runs without first having had one season of 40-plus home runs.

Since you bring up the Red Sox, it's worth mentioning once again the similar case of Big Papi. As a young player, David Ortiz was a lefthanded DH and occasional first baseman for the Twins.

In six Minnesota seasons, Papi hit 58 home runs. What a stiff. Then he went to the Red Sox and put up a 31-homer season in 2003 followed by 41, 47 and 54. His 54 home runs came at age 30, the same age as Bautista with the Jays in 2010.

The next season, his HR total dropped to 35, but he still drove in 117 runs and the Sox won their first World Series since 1918. Following the 2006 season at age 31, Ortiz signed what amounted to a five-year, $64.5-million contract (sound familiar) and was lauded for his loyalty, for cutting Boston some hometown slack.

And yes, if the Jays had not signed Bautista this winter and allowed him to play out his final season and if he did hit 40-plus homers again, the Jays would have ended up being asked for a lot more money and likely would not have paid it.

Rules of the Basic Agreement need to be optimized. When you have a star player and you have exclusive negotiating rights for 12 more months, why not take advantage and get a deal done. The dollar amount is nowhere near as onerous as that of Wells and is tradeable.   

Q. I love your column and baseball knowledge. I like Jose Bautista a lot and hope he does well, but I'm dumbfounded at the Blue Jays for giving out another albatross contract (think Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Frank Thomas, etc.). Could you explain how it's possible for Bautista to be awarded more years and total money (5 yrs, $64M) than both the NL MVP Joey Votto (3 yrs, $39M) and the AL MVP Josh Hamilton (2 yrs, $24M)?!?!

Votto has had one great season and two very good seasons, while Hamilton has had two great seasons. Bautista has had exactly one career year and even then only a .260 average, and is still only a .244 career hitter. Given all these numbers, Bautista definitely deserved less money ... why not something like 3 years $30M or an Aaron Hill-like contract with more club options and an increasing scale? I'm worried that awarding $65M might represent another very expensive Blue Jay mistake. From what I can see, the Dan Uggla contract is a bad one. I'm not sure how this became the one and only contract uses as a benchmark for negotiating with Bautista.

Thanks for listening.

Brian

A. There are huge differences between Bautista's contract compared to Votto and Hamilton. The key is that the Reds and Rangers negotiated those deals with their best hitters locking them up only through their arbitration years, bringing them to unrestricted free agency. Four of Bautista's years are free agent years. It's not primarily statistics that account for salary levels. As important is service time.

Consider there are three levels of contract negotiations between players and teams. The resultant salaries at those three levels are almost totally distinct.

First from 0-3 years of service (with some 2-plus exceptions called Super-Twos), the player is totally under team control. Most times that salary will range from major-league minimum (just over $400,000) to just under $1 million.

The second level is 3-6 years of major-league service during which a player is arbitration eligible. During those arbitration years contracts can almost be entirely predictable by running all the variables of service time, age and performance through a computer and comparing to those that have gone before.

Both club and agent have access to the same numbers which is why so many cases are settled before reaching an arbitration panel. The third level is six-plus years of service declaring free agency. This is the least predictable and most expensive level for teams. All you need is for one crazy, desperate, delusional ownership that thinks they are one player away from winning the Workd Series. Then all you need is that one team to overpay that one player and the ripple effect hits all free agents. That's why the players association loves A-Rod and loves the Yankees.

Blue Jays Notebook: Hits and Misses

DUNEDIN, Fla.-The Jays lost a pair of exhibition games on Friday in their only split-squad action of the season, dropping the spring record to 9-11 with eight games remaining.

At home against the Rays, the Jays lost 14-10, with opening day starter Shaun Marcum allowing nine runs in five innings of work.

“It was just a bad day locating pitches,” Marcum said in the wake of his penultimate spring start. “Everything I threw seemed like it stayed on the middle third instead of out on the corners.”

Marcum refused to use the excuse that he had not faced a major-league opponent in 10 days, going first to a minor-league game, followed by a rainout that forcedhim to an indoor mound throwing 81 pitches against Jays' hitters that did not swing the bats.

“No, that wasn't it,” Marcum said. “Some of those pitch selections I probably wouldn't have thrown in a normal season, but I wanted to try and work on hitting that spot down and away that I was struggling with. Then again, we still have some time and I would rather it be now than April 5. It's a good thing to get that out of the way and move on.”

HITS: Aaron Hill continued his solid spring. Hill's three hits rraised his average to .417, his on-base to .667 and his OPS to 1.414...Kyle Phillips, filling in for an injured Lyle Overbay, slammed a three-run homer and an RBI double among three hits...Jose Molina slammed his first homer of the spring in the ninth inning.

MISSES: Joey Gathright chopped a sure hit off the plate over the mound. When Raul Chavez inexplicably stopped in the baseline to stay out of a double play, the second baseman flipped to short for the force...Catcher John Buck left the game in Fort Myers following his first at-bat, returning home for a family emergency. ..Steve Register cashed out with five runs allowed in two-thirds of an inning.

At Fort Myers, the Jays lost to the Red Sox 3-2 despite a solid performance by starter Brett Cecil. The lefthander went five shutout innings, allowing two hits with a walk and four strikeouts. Non-roster second baseman Brad Emaus had three hits in four at-bats.

* * * * * * *

The first inning was one to forget for Marcum. In amongst the single, double and homer to Evan Longoria was perhaps his worst moment.

Marcum fielded a bunt by Carl Crawford dashing towards the foul line. First baseman Lyle Overbay shifted across to take the throw in foul territory as he was taught, but Marcum stopped suddenly and threw across Crawford's body back into fair territory. As Overbay caught the ball for the out, he made contact with Crawford and limped to the clubhouse.

Overbay was diagnosed with a contusion to his left knee that was confirmed by Dr. Steve Mirabello. He will be listed as day-to-day.

* * * * * * *

The Jays' injury substitution at first base for Lyle Overbay, utility man Kyle Phillips responded with hits in his first three at-bats with a three-run homer and an RBI double. Phillips will be a third catcher at AAA-Las Vegas as well as playing first and third base and some DH.

* * * * * * *

Righthander Brandon Morrow, looking to reinsert himself in the opening rotation mix, threw his scheduled bullpen side session prior to his scheduled Monday start, with no apparent repercussions.

The righthander has been cut back to three innings for Monday vs. the Tigers after pulling himself from a start a week ago against the Astros with soreness in his shoulder as he was warming up in the bullpen.

* * * * * * *

Injured lefthanded reliever Jesse Carlson pitched a perfect inning at the minor league complex in a game on Friday. He has been sidelined with discomfort in the medial collateral ligament (MCL) of his left knee. Carlson has made just one Grapefruit League appearance this spring.

* * * * * * *

Rays' third baseman Evan Longoria made the outstanding catch of the spring in the third inning. Outfielder Chris Lubanski lofted a pop foul. Longoria tracked it to the five-foot wire fence, leaped and extended into the crowd, flipping over and dangling by his ankles. He held onto the ball as the crowd lifted him back up over the fence to an ovation.

* * * * * * *

Against the Rays, lefthander David Purcey retired all four batters he faced, continuing his experiment of scaling his repertoire back to just his two best pitches – fastball and slider.

“He's doing so well, we're just kind of going to leave him alone,” Gaston said. “He's got so much confidence now throwing strikes. I've never seen him pitch like that. He's getting the ball and just throwing it. We're happy with him. We're happy for him.”

* * * * * * *

Prior to Friday's game, manager Cito Gaston confirmed that righthander Dustin McGowan will be held back from throwing for at least another two weeks. McGowan finally appeared in a game against a live opponent at the minor-league complex last Friday. He suffered what was described as “dead arm” and was shut down for a week. McGowan seemed relieved that he will get additional time off. He can stay on the disabled list indefinitely. His last regular season appearance was July 8, 2008.

Jays Notebook: Former prospect Romero a real pro

DUNEDIN, Fla. - It's considered normal protocol for major-league players pitching in minor-league games to get their work in. But after finishing his six innings of work at the Bobby Mattick Training Centre on Tuesday, Jays' lefthander Ricky Romero made sure he worked his way down the dugout on the way back to major-league camp, shaking hands with all the young prospects. Romero used to be one for three springs and knows how much it means to the kids.

“I got some quality work in,” Romero said. “That was the biggest thing coming in. I wanted to work on a few pitches, the off-speed pitches early in the count and that's what we did. The thing right now is I'm feeling too good and that scares me because I tend to get a little excited and tend to overthrow at times. I felt like in the later innings, once I settled down, everything was good.”

Romero, pitching for Class-A Dunedin against a team of young Yankees, threw 88 pitches over six innings, allowing one run on six hits, with two walks and nine strikeouts. The lack of knowledge of the hitters he was facing allowed Romero to work on his own game.

“I walked in the dugout and I said, I guess I can't throw first-pitch fastballs to these guys,” Romero chuckled. “They're just hacking. I think it's good because you have to work on those first-pitch off-speed pitches and we threw a lot of those. A lot of first-pitch strikes. A lot of first-pitch changeups. Later in the innings we worked on fastballs inside which is good.”

Romero was passed over for the opening day assignment, with that honour going to Shaun Marcum. Romero, who went 13-9 in his rookie season, knows his time will likely come. “If there's one guy that deserves (the opener) it's definitely Shaun,” Romero said. “It's been a long road back and he's shown that he's ready. I'm excited for him. I'm excited to be part of the team. I can be the fifth guy for all I care. I just want to win. That's all I'm focused on. I grew up with a dream and that dream was to put on a big-league uniform. I don't take it for granted.”

The Jays on Tuesday enjoyed their third scheduled off-day of the spring. On Wednesday, the Jays travel to Port Charlotte to face the Rays, with Dana Eveland facing Jeff Niemann.

* * * * * * *

Brandon Morrow did not have an off-day on Tuesday. The righthander went in for treatment in the training room at Dunedin Stadium in preparation for a bullpen session on Friday that will hopefully lead to his next start on Monday.

Morrow scratched himself from a start with soreness in his right shoulder on Friday in Kissimmee as he was warming up minutes before the game. He will be asked to go three innings against the Tigers, with one more start before the season opens.

* * * * * * *

It was a high draft first inning for the Jays' Class-A team in support of Ricky Romero (1st round, '05). The first three batters were centre fielder Kenny Wilson (2nd round '08), shortstop Justin Jackson (1st round supplemental, '07) and catcher J.P. Arencibia (1st round '07).

Arencibia was borrowed for the day to catch Romero and was allowed to hit as the third batter of every inning. He was hitless in five at-bats.

* * * * * * *

Lefthanded reliever Jesse Carlson is scheduled to throw from a mound on Wednesday for the second time in 14 days. He has been sidelined with discomfort in the medial collateral ligament (MCL) of his left knee. Carlson has made just one game appearance this spring.

Bad bounce for Blue Jays against Tigers

DUNEDIN, Fla.-Brian Tallet swore he wasn't going to bounce his first-inning changeup to Brandon Inge. The next bounce it took was towards the school located behind the fence in left centre field at Dunedin Stadium. The Tigers were on their way to an 8-2 win over the Jays that dropped the Grapefruit League record to 9-7, with an off-day on Tuesday.

 “Probably two pitches and one of them wasn't that bad,” Tallet said. “The home run that (Ryan) Raburn hit he just went out and ambushed an early-count fastball. Then it was the changeup that Inge hit. Through the first part of camp I've been bouncing so many changeups, I just told myself I'm not going to bounce them anymore. It's not going to get any better by bouncing it. I've got to be able to get that pitch in the (strike) zone. I was working on getting that pitch up and got it up a little too much.”

HITS: Jose Bautista doubled in three at-bats, keeping his average at .519, but good news is that regular third baseman Edwin Encarnacion was able to get five at-bats in a minor-league game and play the field over at the Mattick complex...Randy Ruiz was 2-for-2 and slammed his third homer of the spring...Travis Snider continued his torrid streak, raising his average to .306 with a pair of hits.

MISSES: Aaron Hill was hitless and struck out for the first time in 26 plate appearances this spring...Ryan Goins, filling in at third base, cut off a throw from Jeremy Reed in left that would have nailed a runner at the plate. He looked to throw to third but realized he was otherwise occupied...Adam Lind was hitless in two at-bats, dropping his average to .240...Righthander Josh Roenicke's running out of time to make an impression. He allowed two runs on four hits and a walk in 1-2/3 innings.

The Jays have their third scheduled off-day of the spring on Tuesday. Lefthander Ricky Romero will start at the minor league complex in a Class-A game, scheduled for five innings. Then on Wednesday, the Jays travel to Port Charlotte to face the Rays, with Dana Eveland facing Jeff Niemann.
    * * * * * * *
 The remainder of the Jays' rotation after Shaun Marcum in Texas remains up in the air because of the uncertainty of righthander Brandon Morrow. Acquired from the Ms, Morrow was originally slated to start the third game of the Rangers series, April 8. Morrow will miss a total of two starts, including what would have been Wednesday at the Rays, with soreness in his right shoulder. He will next throw in a game on Monday, March 29, scheduled for three innings.
    “We're going to wait and see and if he looks okay. That could make a difference in our rotation, too,” manager Cito Gaston said. “If he feels good, he's got a chance. If he doesn't feel good, he probably won't make it.”
    * * * * * * *
 It was a busy Monday for Jays' major-leaguers over at the Bobby Mattick. Third baseman Edwin Encarnacion saw his first game action, going 1-for-5 for AAA-Las Vegas. Also returning to action was utility infielder Mike McCoy, who was 1-for-4 with a walk and a pickoff. Jose Molina, who drove over to catch the Jays' relievers,  was 0-for-3 with a walk.
 Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor, Scott Downs and David Purcey each pitched a shutout inning. Shawn Camp allowed a run in his inning of work. The relief pitching had been backed up in their work by the rainout on Sunday against the Red Sox.
    * * * * * * *
 Lefthanded reliever Jesse Carlson threw from a mound on Monday for the first time in 12 days. He had been sidelined with discomfort in the medial collateral ligament (MCL) of his left knee.
 The session took place before regular batting practice and ended with trainer George Poulis, Carlson, manager Cito Gaston, and two P.R. men huddled with the lefty in the bullpen.
 The club announced that Carlson will throw in the bullpen again on Wednesday. Gaston indicated that Carlson still has enough time to prove he is healthy and break camp with the Jays. He has made one game appearance thus far in Grapefruit League play.