Poznan - Good Climate for Talks

The title of this post were the words that greeted me as I exited the airport and entered into the city of Poznan Saturday night. Indeed even for the most unobservant resident, it is hard to ignore all the hints that a major international conference was descending upon this picturesque town. From the store owners that were steadily arranging souvenirs in the front window, to the flood of new advertising on billboards that suggest some sort of environmental message, the town has transformed into ground zero for two weeks of climate, climate, climate.

Starting Monday the town will be overrun with over eight thousand government and state officials, NGOs, civil society organizations and climate experts, all from over 180 countries.

Expectations range from very hopeful to very pessimistic. Peter Gorrie, in a column in the Saturday Star commented that "soon, though, they'll settle comfortably into what they do best – long, inconclusive debates and secretive strategy sessions that lead to a dramatic last-minute agreement to hold more talks."

The prospect of a non-progressive policy-filled two weeks didn't dampen the spirits of over 200 youth that gathered Saturday and Sunday for the 4th Annual Conference of Youth. With youth representatives from Sweden, India, Japan and Canada to name a few, they excitedly fine-tuned their strategies to have a prominent voice at the conference.

In the backdrop of one of Eastern Europe's oldest city, will a breakthrough finally occur for a plan that will stave off climate change? Will the political tensions back home create some cracks in the official Canadian delegation? All that is left to do right now, is to just wait and see.

Climate Briefer: Canada’s Climate Policy

“Turning the Corner” is the name of the environmental plan from the Harper government concerning climate change. Here is a quick summary of the Canadian government’s current stance on climate change coming into Monday’s conference in Poznan:

• A proposal to cut Canada’s emissions to 20% below the 2006 level (equivalent to 3% below the 1990 level – if we are lucky). Given that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s minimum reduction target is 20% below 1990 levels by 2020, then something is going to have to give during these negotiations.
• Instead of hard caps, it proposes to use intensity targets for electricity generators and heavy industrial sectors, together accounting for only half of Canada’s emissions. 50% of Canadian emissions are not actually addressed in the plan.
• Only from 2018 onwards will Canada require that oil sands facilities and coal-fired power plants will face special intensity targets. This makes it unlikely that Canada’s emissions will peak by 2012

Climate trumps economy, according to global survey

In a survey done in 12 countries by a coalition of climate groups, nearly half of the 12,000 respondents chose climate change ahead of the economy, and want governments to stop haggling and start acting on climate change.

Despite a global recession apparently imminent, 43% of the respondents chose climate change ahead of the global economy when asked about their current concerns. The survey was carried out for the HSBC Climate Partnership, a collaboration between the international bank and climate NGOs including WWF, the Climate Group, Earthwatch Institute and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute.

Lord Stern, an adviser to HSBC on economic development and climate change and former adviser to the British government, said: "This research demonstrates the need for decisive action on climate change. The urgent challenge is to build a framework for a global deal so that consensus can be reached in Copenhagen next year and the discussions in Poznan are a critical stepping stone to achieving this. Now is the time to lay the foundations of a new form of growth that can transform our economies and societies."

From Grassroots to the United Nations

With my flight leaving from Pearson tonight, 6,940 kilometres and two days separate me from the United Nations Climate Change conference in Poznan, Poland. With the conference so close, I was beginning to take stock of what participation in this high-level bureaucratic conference means to me, as someone who had grown up and taken joy in the grassroots environmental efforts that are often praised by politicians who attend such conferences.

For years, taking part in environmental activities in Brampton and Mississauga were my tangible efforts in doing what I can for the environment. Climate change was something much larger and abstract to me for a long time. As I learned more about the issue I sometimes felt that all that I and others were doing in our local communities was fruitless if our government was not going to act in a substantial way to fight climate change.

And that was the real issue that I grappled with for a long time as a young person – that my fate and future on this planet were in this hands of much older politicians who might not live to see the worst impacts of climate change -- and there was nothing that I could do about it. These feelings weren’t made any better when I was told (and sometimes condescendingly and self-righteously) that all I had to do was “turn off the lights”, when I knew that there was so much more to be done.

However, what incensed me about the apparent disconnect between men and women in suits at these conferences poring over climate graphs, and the students, mother and fathers that toiled for environmental causes in communities across Canada is also the reason that I wanted to attend this conference.

For much too long citizens have been disengaged with the climate negotiation process, and feeling like I had been feeling for a long time: skepticism, cynicism, and distrust with the process and all those involved. However every year with the climate situation growing worse, more and more youth and ordinary citizens around the world are pressuring their government for action at these often elusive conferences, reminding them what is at stake, who they are working for, and warning them whatever they do, it will follow them home. An example of this is the 4th annual International Conference of Youth, which annually brings together 500 youth from around the world at the United Nations conference who want a say in their future and the world that they will inherit.

Getting involved reminded me just how powerful the grassroots was. In this critical moment of history before the potential tide of climate catastrophes, we need a growing consciousness amongst Canadians, with bottom-to-top pressure, a united bipartisan voice emerging from the masses, and the continued efforts made by young and old Canadians every day, so that change perhaps, will finally come.

Do widzenia (Goodbye in Polish), and see you on the other side!

Climate Briefer: Poznan

On December 1st the world’s eyes will be in Poznan, Poland for the United Nations Climate Change Conference, an annual affair that is growing increasingly urgent as the window of opportunity to prevent the dangerous effects of climate change are quickly closing. For twelve days, over eight thousand participants including heads of state, climate scientists, NGOs and youth are expected to descend upon Poland to continue to negotiate a global climate change agreement for the post-2012 period.

Poznan is the half way mark between the Bali conference in 2007 and the Copenhagen conference set for December 2009. With the first commitment of the Kyoto Protocol due to expire in 2012, many experts say that a large portion of the post-2012 global climate change plan needs to be developed and agreed upon by 2009 to allow time for adoption and ratification in individual countries by 2012. Poznan is seen as a critical stage in which the key parts of the post-2012 global climate change deal need to be drawn out and brought forward to the final negotiations in 2009.

Climate Briefer: Hot topics in Poznan

Mitigation: In Poznan parties will be deciding on whether to adopt a mandate of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 25-40% below 1990 levels by 2020. Canada’s position: Canada has been violently opposed to this, and is instead opting for a 3% reduction from 1990 levels by 2020 – or 20 per cent from 2006 levels over the same period.

Adaptation – Developing countries need both financial and technical assistance in reducing their GHG emissions and creating disaster response strategies to battle the impacts of climate change. Canada’s position: Canada has pledged $16 million to the Least Developed Countries Fund and the Special Climate Change Fund (a relatively small amount compared to many other developed nations). Canada also just announced a $100 million fund for adaptation for countries that have not been heavy emitters

Finance: Two big proposals will be discussed in Poznan to address funding needed to support mitigation and adaptation: A proposal by Mexico supporting the creation of a large global fund which parties would pay into based on certain criteria, and would support both adaptation and mitigation, or a proposal from Norway that will raise funds by auctioning a certain percentage of a country’s ‘Assigned Amount Unit’

People to watch for in Poznan

Though generally Poznan will provide a platform for governments to signal their stance and level of cooperation for a global climate change deal, all eyes will be on John Kerry, Obama’s ambassador for the climate change talks. Watch for any hints from Kerry on which direction president-elect Obama will lead the United States in terms of a global climate change deal.

Newly minted Canadian environment minister Jim Prentice will be given his first chance to represent Canada at the yearly climate change conference. A self-described conservationist and passionate outdoorsmen, Prentice says that “dealing with the important issues of energy security, the environment, and the economy are, I think, some of the most challenging issues that we face,” he said. Watch for signals from Prentice on any changes to Canada’s current climate change policy and what effect the new Obama administration will have on it.

Welcome!

Needless to say, I feel more than privileged to be able to blog about what is to be an exciting 12 days in Poznan, Poland for the United Nations Climate Change Conference.

What I have already started here is a series of “climate briefers” ahead of Monday’s conference for those who wish to know a little bit more of the negotiation process and the various issues surrounding climate change.

Once I arrive in Poland, I’ll be updating the blog frequently about the on-the-ground events, behind the scene stories, and the notable people and events of the day at the conference. It’s bound to be an eventful 12 days, and I hope you follow the events right here on this blog.

New Twists at This Year's Conference

There are some new twists at this year’s annual conference that will no doubt cast a shadow on the negotiations: the election of Barack Obama in the United States and the global economic crisis

Obama and Climate Change

Though an “Obama presidency will mark a new chapter in America’s leadership on climate change,” Barack Obama is not expected to attend the UN talks in Poland. Instead John Kerry, now chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the 2004 US democratic nominee, will be the eyes and ears of Obama.

"It's a very exciting time," Kerry told reporters during a conference call hosted by the Pew Environment Group. "It's a moment we've been waiting for for eight years. We intend to pick up the baton and run with it."

Obama has signaled that he will re-engage in global talks on a new climate change deal, though he will not commit the United States to meet the emissions target – a cut to 6 per cent below 1990 levels by 2012. Instead, his goal is to get back down to 1990 levels by 2020, a goal that is seen as not nearly aggressive enough.

Canada has already signaled that it is seeking to negotiate a North American climate change deal with Obama. Climate change has been an issue that Harper's conservative government have taken much flak for by environmental organizations, but aligning their approach with the vastly more popular Obama might prove to be a political boon.

A new global climate change deal is almost certainly going to need the cooperation of the United States to be effective, and many have said that Obama’s global popularity could lead the world to an effective, comprehensive deal - though some say not in time for Copenhagen in 2009 as he focuses on a short term economic stimulus package for the United States.

With this potential delay from the Obama camp and with President Bush still in power and his representatives at the confernece, the Poznan conference might prove to be a holding over period for the United States, if not outright awkward during this transition of power period.

The Global Economic Crisis

Will the attention given to climate change be given a lower priority this year as the whole word is fixated on reviving the world’s financial systems?

That’s what some are worried about, as the Poznan conference is set to take place in the broader context of a major global financial crisis.

"The risk consequences of ignoring climate change will be very much bigger than the consequences of ignoring risks in the financial system," said Nicholas Stern, a former British Treasury economist, who released a seminal report in 2006 that said inaction on emissions blamed for global warming could cause economic pain equal to the Great Depression.

The global financial crisis is already been having an impact on efforts to fight climate change: a European proposal to spend 11 billion euros testing how to pump greenhouse gases underground is itself was scrapped last month at the height of the economic turmoil. The plan included subsidizing 12 pilot plants that capture and store carbon dioxide.

Yvo de Boer, the UNFCCC Executive Secretary on Climate Change in Poznan has said that the economic crisis should not detract from the fight from climate change.

“This is an excellent opportunity to urge for greener growth and the development of green technologies,” he said earlier this month.