z_Copenhagen Summit Insider

Updated Copenhagen Text Posted

The New York Times has posted the latest text of the Copenhagen Accord

Though I am not sure how official it is, as there is a note on page 9 below the developing country carbon mitigation plans that reads: "This information has been obtained from media outlets and hasn't been confirmed with the Government of the countries listed above.

Update from Kevin Rudd: get ready for all-nighter in Copenhagen

Australian PM Kevin Rudd's entourage just swept me into a press conference with the Prime Minister as I was on my way to get a quick bite for what looks like another all-nighter in the making.

"At 1am Copenhagen time this morning, we agreed on a Copenhagen Accord. ...This Copenhagen Accord, agreed to by 25 countries will be put to the Conference of the Parties, which understand will be submitted later this morning."

"This is the first global agreement on climate change action between rich countries and poor countries."

"This is the first time rich countries and poor countries have agreed that we should keep our temperature increases to less than 2 degrees Celsius."

Big Rift in the G-77: Sour Sudan

There is a big rift that has opened up in the G-77 group of developing countries according to the Lumumba Stanislaus-Kaw Di-Aping, is a Sudanese diplomat, who is the chief negotiator for the G77 group of developing nations.

However, on being pressed whether he was speaking for the G-77, he said "no." When I asked him if everything he said was just the position of Sudan, he said, "every I have said is a personal statement."

Lumumba, who has been outlandish the whole two weeks called today's Copenhagen Accord "the worst development in climate change history." He had many well-worn objections, but could not explain why key G-77 members, including China and India did choose to put their names to the accord. When I asked him if the deal is bad why did China and India agree to it, he said, derisively, "go ask them."

Lumumba, also suggested, through I think erroneusly, that the Copenhagen Accord, which allows countries to sign up to anytime in the future is annuled if any countries chose not to sign up. I checked with the Washington Post, who is here, and they didn't think it washed either.

We are still waiting for the EU conference and crucially the main plenary where all countries will be represented. 

Copenhagen: leaders pull small rabbit out of the hat at end of the day

I just obtained a copy of the final Copenhagen Accord, and it differs from the earlier version in two significant ways that cancel each other out.

The final text of the Copenhagen Accord does not include the provision for global emissions to be cut by 50 per cent by 1990. Nor does it include the disguised equity in per capita emissions.

It does enshrine for the first time in an international accord for the first time emissions commitments from developing countries including China, India, Mexico and Brazil. That is a huge first step. While the transparency measures are less than some would like, Obama did make the point that a lot can be verified via satellite monitoring. He called it a good first step and trust building measure on the road to a legally binding agreement.

I am off to a scrum with G-77 lead negotiator.

• Accepts 2 degrees Celsius as a critical threshold.

• Copenhagen Climate Fund: Quick-start $30 billion 2010-2012 for poor countries. $100 billion/year to poor countries by 2020 subject to transparency of mitigation actions.
• Enshrines principle (thank you Nick Stern) that "low emission development strategy is indispensable to sustainable development."

Update: EU to give update in "10-15 minutes"

José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission and Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt are just finishing a meeting and will be in the second press room of the Bella Centre shortly to make an announcement.

Whitehouse Announces Meaningful Climate Deal: Obama out of here in 40 minutes

A U.S. diplomat just told a colleague and I that Obama is leaving in 40 minutes, and he will hold press briefing before going, likely in a more private setting than the press room. Danish TV also confirmed that Obama's plane is booked to leave at 10pm Danish time in 2 hours.

Yvo De Boer said that a plenary of all the parties wil convene later tonight to seal the deal, so to speak.

The New York Times just reported:

“It’s not sufficient to combat the threat of climate change, but it’s an important first step,” the official said. “No country is entirely satisfied with each element, but this is a meaningful and historic step forward and a foundation from which to make progress.”

“Developed and developing countries have now agreed to listing their national actions and commitments, a finance mechanism, to set a mitigation target of two degrees celsius, and to provide information on the implementation of their actions through national communications, with provisions for international consultations and analysis under clearly defined guidelines,” the official said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/19/science/earth/19climate.html?hp

Obama just waved to us

Because of the design of the Bella Conference Centre, the most direct route for Obama to get from his U.S. delegation private room to the room where the leaders are hashing out Copenhagen Accord is along the top row of the auditorium. He just walked by again en route to the leaders' meeting room, and we caught him, with his negotaiting team in toe, waving just as he ducked through the entrance.

The next minutes or hours will determine a lot.

Copenhagen Delayed

Ok. An official just told a full room of international press that "the US has no intention whatsoever of holding a press conference."

There is a problem, apparently,  with the press conference room not being secure enough for thew leader of the free world to address a mob of press.

We wait.

Copenhagen Rescued?

So Obama was coming to a press briefing. Press scrambled in to the press hall, but so far no Obama. I just caught word from the Brazilian delegation that President "Lula" has left for the airport. That is either really good news or really bad news. Lula was an essential lynchpin bridge between poor and rich today meeting together with Obama, Wen, Singh to broker an agreement. Let's hope he left happy.

Stay tuned.

Copenhagen Rescued

About 4 hours ago, I thought the Copenhagen boat had sunk.

 

Bjorn Lomborg, the skeptical environmentalist, was sitting beside me as I wolfed down a quiche and coffee. Bjorn looked smug as the cat that ate the canary. Meanwhile, Lord Stern, the economist turned climate crusader, looked like he might cry.

 

But the most recent leader’s draft, which has some blanks to fill in, but I think will be adopted, is a watershed moment in several crucial ways. Of course it does, in a few areas, employ the old Canadian solution for solving tough intractable problems: procrastination. Too bad the UN doesn’t have Royal Commissions.

 

The leaders of the world have just finished a meeting to flesh out the latest draft. And Obama is walking into the press breifing room where I am luckily already sitting.

See my analysis below, which will be updated as Obama speaks to us, which I think will be in a few moments. 

 

Here are the big highlights:

 

• Accepts 2 degrees Celsius as a critical threshold.

 

• Cut global emissions by 50% by 2050 from 1990, “taking into account right to equitable access to atmospheric space.” [this, on the face of it, is a huge concession by the U.S. to China, India and other developing countries, as it says that we are have same per-capita rights to greenhouse gas emissions. This works out ok, if the incoming low-carbon economy brings emissions down dramatically all around. But God help us if the convergence point is closer to current rich country levels than poor country levels.

• Copenhagen Climate Fund: Quick-start $30 billion 2010-2012 for poor countries. $100 billion/year to poor countries by 2020 subject to transparency of mitigation actions.
• Enshrines principle (thank you Nick Stern) that "low emission development strategy is indispensable to sustainable development."
  

 

 

According to a U.S. official, the U.S. underestimated coming into Copenhagen how much of a sticking point keeping the Kyoto Protocol would be. The Kyoto Protocol divides rich and poor countries, with one set of obligations for rich countries and essentially a soft to no set of obligations for poor countries. Coming into Copenhagen, the U.S. wanted to get rid of this segregation and have just one arrangement for all major countries. The poor countries dug in and said that was a deal breaker.  The poor countries seem to have won, which in one way is bad from the atmosphere’s point of view in that 97 per cent of the growth in greenhouse gases over the next two decades is expected to come from developing countries, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). But it is good for fairness, and there is enough tofu-meat in this accord to give rocket-boost to the burgeoning trillion dollar green economy, which should end up making many of the lower carbon technologies the cheapest option, eclipsing many of the concerns of poor countries reluctant to trade off development for the environment.And shattering the business as usual projections by the IEA.

 

The Copenhagen Declaration has been upgraded in name to a Copenhagen Accord, which I understand is higher on the pecking order of diplomatic outputs.

 

The Copenhagen Accord is set to include two appendices listing the carbon reduction measures taken by rich and poor countries. Rich countries (Annex 1 parties to the Convention), including the U.S., which was not a Party to the Kyoto Protocol, will have to individually or jointly make “economy-wide emissions targets for 2020 yielding aggregate reductions of greenhouse gas emissions of X% in 2020 compared to 1990 and Y% in 2020 compared to 2005.” Delivery of reductions and financing will be measured, reported and verified in accordance with internationally prescribed standard that is robust and transparent.  While group targets have been announced in many communiqués, putting country specific emissions commitments to paper is significant. This measure allows China to safe face, and probably doesn’t make a big difference.

 

Poor countries (non-Annex 1 countries) will implement mitigation actions listed in an appendix to limit emissions, and will be subject to “domestic measurement, reporting, and verification, the result of which will be reported through their national communications every two years.” This, although it appears silly, is a key concession by the U.S. which had said all conference that it would accept nothing less than internationally verified mitigation actions by major emerging economies such as China.

 

The rich countries are also promising to increase overseas development assistance by 100 per cent by 2020. Specifically, rich countries commit to provide “quick-start financing” of new and additional resources of $30 billion from 2010-2012 for balanced allocation between adaptation, mitigation, including forestry. In the context of meaningful mitigation mechanisms and transparency, developed countries support a goal of jointly mobilizing $100 billion per year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries.  This $30 billion is unconditional and will include details provided in an appendix. The $100 billion, which will come from variety of sources isn’t as fleshed out, but calls for governance mechanism with equal representation by developing and developed countries. 

The accord calls for this “Copenhagen Climate Fund” to support mitigation including forestry, adaptation, capacity building and technology development and transfer in developing countries.