Up to the minute state of debate in Copenhagen

Obama’s plane has landed. I hope he slept well, as today’s talks are not going to finish early.

 

The likely outcome in Copenhagen has been downgraded from political accord to a political declaration, with a silver lining: a six-month deadline to agree to get a climate treaty in place that will keep temperature increases to less than 2 degrees Celsius.

 

In the context of a vast gulf between major rich and developing countries, the economics of climate change Sherpa Lord Nicholas Stern, who is intimately involved in behind the scenes negotiations, is predicting Copenhagen may indeed be a success.

 

Looking battle weary on the last scheduled day of the Copenhagen talks, Stern told me just now between brisk strides: “There’s a lot of work to do, but I think we’ll get there.”

 

Last night, 28 world leaders including Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and leaders of major players at the summit from Europe to Asia to Africa to Latin America to the Maldives, met at President Sarkozy’s instigation to rescue the floundering Copenhagen summit.

 

Although he was in town, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, did not attend, instead sending his Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei.

 

Presently, about 28 heads of state are looking at text for a political accord they left their Sherpas to massage last night after they retired to sleep at 3am.

 

A western official who attended the talks said that the most unhelpful countries were India, Saudi Arabia and Sudan, which is seen as marionette whose dance is choreographed by China.

 

China remains the biggest obstacle to a deal, but is acutely sensitive to being isolated or singled out for Copenhagen failure.

 

The political declaration as it stands contains language to the effect that goes some way to addressing the “transparency” concerns [of verifying emissions reductions] of the U.S. that Clinton said is a deal breaker.

 

The prospect of countries applying carbon taxes on imports from free-riding countries (who do not place a price on carbon) remained a point of fierce contention, with China and other developing countries in opposition and the U.S. and France in support.

 

The political declaration in its current form, crucially, also contains text that would set a six-month deadline for reaching an international treaty to keep temperature increases to less than two degrees.

 

Stay tuned.