Is the guard changing in Canadian new car showrooms?

In my weekly Autonews column today, I reported that last month’s Canadian new car sales suggest the market is starting to be divided in to the “haves” and the “have nots.” However, Canadian auto industry analyst, Dennis DesRosiers has taken a longer view back than just a year ago. And he purports a more dramatic is happening in the market.

DesRosiers took a look at sales two years back, to 2008, which he states was a more “normal” May than last month. “Especially for some individual brands like Chrysler and GM who were in the middle of bankruptcy proceedings,” says DesRosiers. For example, Chrysler reported a sales increase this May of 53.5 per cent over May 2009. But when you look at Chrysler’s May sales from two years ago, they are actually down by 23.3 per cent.

DesRosiers also broadened his look to include January to May sales. For 2010, Chrysler's year-to-date sales are up 27.9 per cent from 2009, but still down by 18.3 per cent from 2008. And Chrysler’s not the only automaker that’s taking a long-term dive.

According to DesRosiers’ numbers, General Motors had taken the biggest hit in Canada, down 38 per cent. Honda is second, down 30.4 per cent, and Toyota, third, down 22.9 per cent.

As DesRosiers says, “We had gotten so used to these companies walking on water that we lose track of the fact that they can also stumble from time to time.”

He cites the two biggest big winners over the same period as Ford (up 10.6 per cent) and Hyundai (up 44.3 per cent).

After taking this longer view, do you think this change in the market is permanent?

Do you think former top sellers like GM, Chrysler, Toyota and Honda can regain their form?

[Source: DesRosiers and Associates]

Comments

[Randy]

Honda and Toyota's loss is Hyundai's gain.

GM and Chrysler will never get back to where they were. Doesn't mean they can't be profitable though.