Swedish Meatballs: Are Saab’s new caretakers at Spyker in trouble? Again?

As we wait to hear about the supposed 20-or-so Canadian dealers who are ready, willing, and able to start selling and servicing Saabs again, it looks like the Swedish automaker’s new parents at Dutch super car maker Spyker are continuing right where former owner Government Motors left off: losing money.

Reuters is saying Spyker Cars NV may have been too optimistic on Saab's earlier sales goals. Shocking, I know. The global sales goal for Saab has been reduced to 45,000 this year, down from a previous target of 50,000. Spyker is now forecasting 2011 Saab sales at 80,000, down from 100,000 before, but it kept a long-term sales goal of 120,000 a year.

Not that the Saabistas want to hear this, but Spyker has never made a profit. Just last year, they lost $25.81 million, on sales of only $8.85 million. I’m no Bernie Madoff. But that doesn’t look very good. And now a report coming from Automobilwoche says Spyker has until the end of this week to file for bankruptcy or find new investors. And that’s not good news for the new products Saab needs to get into showrooms sooner than later.

For instance, BMW wanted to deliver engines for the Mexican-made 9-4X crossover and maybe the 9-3 compact. But that deal is stone cold now. And Spyker has been talking about launching a premium subcompact 9-2 model, and then enter it in the World Rally Championship. But before that can happen, the 9-2 needs to move beyond speculative concept drawings.

The big problem is that the cost of the 9-2 wasn't included in the turnaround plan Saab presented to its current investors and the Swedish government. So Saab needs to find another automaker that will supply a platform it can rebody.

Spyker was going to hook up with BMW’s next-gen Mini platform for its new 9-2 premium subcompact, but now Automotive News is saying Spyker head Victor Muller is chatting with three automakers (BMW included) for help with the 9-2.

Of course, being able to pay another automaker for the 9-2 platform may be a bit of  sticking issue as Muller takes his Saab cap in hand.

Do you think Saab will remerge as a real global player again?

Do you think enough Canadians even want the Swedish brand to return to our shores?

[Sources: Automobilwoche, Automotive News, Reuters]

Comments

[Randy]

As a Saab owner, I knew all along that Spyker hadn't made any money. The Auto business is a very Capital-intensive game, and Spyker's results just show it, but its new relationship with Saab can't hurt. The only Spyker dealer in Canada is in Calgary, so hitching with Saab will increase its distribution. This should help sales and the bottom line.

As far as Saab goes, a big part of why their sales figures have suffered is because there was no production of cars. The Company was already in liquidation when Spyker bought it. Meaning the plant in Trollhattan was completely shut down. They had to 1) restart the plant, 2) order supplies from all the parts suppliers as well and 3) those suppliers also had to restart production. No small feat to do in a short period of time.

Anyways, now that production is in full swing, and we start to see the new cars on the lots, then we'll see how they do. I just hope they price them more in line with the US, since the Cdn dollar is much closer to the US. How Audi and BMW can ask for a $10000 - $15000 premium in Canada vs. the US I don't know. If Saab is smart, hopefully they can undercut the Germans and still make enough money to be a going concern.

In the past, Saab was heavily into the Rallying circuit with the 9-2 with 2 stroke engines (back in the 50's and 60's). It also was the first to introduce a turbocharged engine in a production car. They have also been leaders in Engine management systems. These were just some of the reasons GM bought Saab in the first place, but they didn't let Saab do its thing and starved it of development money.

They finally got a new 9-5 and they plan on a redesign of the 9-3 by 2012. It will be interesting to see how things pan out for Saab. Whether they can be seen as a legitimate alternative to the German premium brands is the big question.

Personally, I think Saab should be talking to Gordon Murray about the T25, that would be a great starting point for a small car. A new 9-2 or 9-1 ?

[Helge]

You must be extremely well connected to know that BMW wanted to supply diesel engines to Saab and that the deal is dead now. As far as I know, all the speculation about BMW has been only speculations. There has been no official statements. So how can a deal that never was made be dead?

Same goes for the 9-2. Spyker Cars/Saab has said that they are interested in making a 9-2 if they can finance the project. There has been no official statements about who and how many potential partners they have been in talks with.

I almost forgot, about the return to rally. Not only is Saab's return to rally a rumour, it has even been denied by Saab!

In other words, your blog post is nothing more than yet another guy rattling off hearsay where your sources are unconfirmed rumours.

[WooDz]

The facts on who SAAB are in talks with is actually undisclosed. Rumors suggest BMW are the preferred donor but nothing is confirmed. With the new Mini architecture being linked with those speculations, it's easy to bring Citroén and Peugeot into the fold as the other 2 manufacturers.

[Swade]

John,

Here's the dealer listing for Canada. You don't have to wait anymore.

http://www.saabsunited.com/2010/08/saab-dealer-listing-canada.html

The article you've written here is pretty mischevious. In fact, it's just a loose but much more pessimistic translation than the Automobilewoche article on which its based.

The debt-to-equity issue is nothing new at all. It's been that way since the Saab deal was done back in February. It's only becoming news because 1) Journos missed it back then, and 2) Spyker disclosed it in their financials, as they're supposed to.

As to BMW - it's widely believed that there have indeed been talks but stating what models or whether its anything more than engines is speculative. Calling it stone cold dead is something more.

My advice would be for you to search out some seat time in the new 9-5. That way you might have something real to write about with regard to Saab, who are working flat out against the tide of stuff like this to get their message out there - We're still here and with all-new product, too.

[Les]

John,

You're softening up.

So far this year, you've told us that Saab would not survive the GM bankruptcy, would not release new models, and would not establish a dealership network in Canada.

Now all you can tell us is that you're not really sure that their third next new model, not including the 9-5 which is already out in major markets and any wagon variants, may not be based on a BMW (which is itself based on a Peugeot)?

I expect a bit more doom and gloom from you. You were a lot more fun when you spoke of Saab as one would of their crazy ex wife.

At this rate, you'll soon be complaining that the cafe au lait at the dealership tastes too much like cafe latte, or that the turn signals sound too much like "click" instead of "tick" like they did in 1972.

[Randy]

Well John, I guess you've been told by swade.

Every Saabista on the the face of the planet knows who he is :)

I can't wait to read what you have to say about the new 9-5 once you get a chance to drive it.

BTW - I'll take my 9-5 as a Sportcombi (once its available), in laser red or fjord blue, 2.0T, with a manual transmission.

Good thing you didn't mention a timmy tax or things would have really hit the fan....

[Alex]

John, writing and speculating about things like this, not known the public, does no good for anyone; Saab nor your credibility as as an "automobile journalist". Successes like the the Save Saab rally, the PR campaign done by Spyker (you were the owner of an advertising and marketing company once...) and the effort being put by all to rebuilt the company is what is needed. We could list many brands that continue to put our flops or get saved by governments (where your tax dollars are being spent), but does that get as much negative press as you choose to write about for Saab?

[Wictor]

This was some unserious reading..

[9395]

Dear John,

It is very disappointing to read, once again, your article on SAAB based on speculation and misinformation. Case in point: Your previous article dated January 22, 2010 entitled, "Canadian Saab picnic won’t save doomed brand," you suggest that Toronto SAAB owners should not even bother getting out of bed to participate in a global convoy to save the brand as it will never change GM's mind to sell the brand. Of course, you were wrong as GM did sell SAAB and the convoy was an absolute success globally.

You then wrote a humble pie article after SAAB was sold on January 26, 2010 entitled, "Spyker saves Saab! Maybe. Probably not." In this article you write that the EIB loan will probably not be guaranteed by Sweden, that SAAB will probably not return to the Canadian market, they have no experience as a volume car maker, etc...As we know, those statements were incorrect as the EIB loans were approved, Canada have confirmed SAAB dealers with more to come, and Jan Ake Jonsson/CEO of SAAB continues to manage SAAB wonderfully as usual.

I could also point out inaccuracies in your article above as well, but I think Swade and others have done so already. It is sad to read such negativity against a brand that is currently going through a re-birth. Things will take time to know if SAAB will succeed or not. You can not expect miracles in its first year. We are still awaiting the new 9-5 to be here in Canada any day now. I have had the pleasure of test driving it at the SOC, and can say that it is a fantastic car!

To answer your questions above:
Do you think Saab will remerge as a real global player again? Yes!

Do you think enough Canadians even want the Swedish brand to return to our shores?
Yes! I think Canadians first need to know that SAAB is alive and well. SAAB needs to get their new cars here soon, advertise and improve brand perception. With so many Audi's, BMW, Mercedes out there, Canadians will want an alternative from the mainstream that is different and provides good value. SAAB is that brand without a doubt.

As a journalist, you have every right to voice your opinions and write articles that may enlighten or provoke people. But please, write them based on solid facts and not conjecture as it seems is your history. You are doing more harm than good as your reputation as an automotive journalist is becoming more questionable with each article that you write on SAAB. I have been honored to meet the owner of Spyker and CEO of SAAB several times, and I can assure you that they are well aware of SAAB's strength and weakness. They know that there is much work ahead, they know the issues that need to be tackled, and they are finding solutions and ideas that will hopefully give SAAB a successful future.

I for one have always been an optimist. I prefer to look towards success rather than focus on failures and negativity. Of course, learning from our failures is a must to succeed, and being a realist also helps. In that aspect, I wish SAAB all the success it deserves...Long Live SAAB......

Regards,

Saxel

[Bob Martin]

I work at a SAAB dealer near Washington, DC. Last week, we received our allotment of 3 new 9-5's. One was presold, sight unseen to a Toyota Prius owner.(he kept the Prius) One was sold within days to a current SAAB owner, and the other we are trying to keep on the showroom floor to drive traffic and show prospective buyers. SAAB will survive with the new product, advertising and leadership they have.

[Mnztr]

One little bit of info you forgot to mention is that SAAB made a $531 million profit in 2009... not bad. Sure there are lots of gotchas about how that happened. Right now sales are primarily production constrained. Saab needs cars on the lots to sell. I don't think any Canadians would be less happy with an additional choice of vehicle in our market. After all, not all of us want Camcords....