Of course, it’s not all bad news this week at The World’s Largest Automaker.
Here’s a virtual Gran Turismo 5 clip of the forthcoming Toyota FT-86 sports coupe (with a not-so-surprising guest car cameo at the end) that will make its real-life debut at this month’s Tokyo auto show.
Hey, wasn’t it only a couple of Detroit shows back that The Next Big Thing was going to be cheap-as-dirt Chinese cars?
At the 2008 Motor City shindig, I distinctly remember talking to a guy from the China America Co-operative Automobile Inc. He boasted that his company was ready to start importing Chinese cars into the U.S. that year and into Canada by the end of this year. The plan was to sell 13,500 vehicles in North America in 2009, at an average price of U.S. $13,500.
Of course, we all know how that’s going...
Anyway, whether or not the Chinese automakers ever get their act together (i.e. make cars that don’t fold up like rusty cans of tuna fish) and start selling cars on our shores, we’ll have to wait and see.
But for now, the Chinese threat seems to have been replaced by a fear in the established North American automakers’ court by another foreign threat—the Koreans.
Although buyers have cottoned on to the idea that Hyundais and Kias are now very competitive, some automakers are only now getting around to recognizing where their lunch is being eaten.
Last week, Honda’s CEO Ito Takanobu said that he sees Hyundai as a huge threat to the future of Japanese automakers.
“Hyundai is awesome,” Takanobu said. “They are undoubtedly a threat because their products are cheap, and the quality is improving.”
Even Nissan’s head pen, Shiro Nakamura, is complementing Hyundai. “Hyundai is the biggest threat for the Japanese automakers,” he said. “They have the technology, but they seem to have cheaper labor.”
Funnily enough we haven’t heard boo from the world’s largest automaker, Toyota, about what it thinks of its upstart Korean rivals.
Maybe that’s because it’s busy dealing with its 3.8 million vehicles being recalled to fix an "acceleration problem"; four wrongful-death U.S. lawsuits filed alleging faulty steering rods in trucks; a former Toyota attorney charges the company with covering up rollover accidents; and a California woman suing Toyota’s Saatchi & Saatchi ad agency, for a PR campaign which, she alleges, she was terrorized by a fictional English football hooligan who insisted — via email — that he was going to show up at her house with his pitbull and crash on her sofa while he avoided the police.
So, over to you: Do you think Hyundai (and its sister brand Kia) can some day overtake the Japanese Big Three?
Over the next few months, you’re going to be hearing a lot about BMW’s new 2010 5 Series Gran Turismo.
Both philosophically and literally, the 5er GT fills that sliver of a niche between the current 535xi Touring sports wagon and the sporty version of the X5 SUV—the X6. Its footprint, height and weight (and ultimately, driving experience) split the two other BMWs right down the middle.
Objectively, I think BMW’s new idea for a sporty and utility vehicle will be successful in the market. It should catch those customers who think driving an SUV these days is socially repugnant, or that station wagons are old hat.
As someone who grew up on Car and Driver’s David E. Davis and his various Boss Wagons, however, I’m one of those old farts who thinks a good ol’ sports wagon is just fine, thank you very much. They’re kind of like free beer: the driving qualities of a sports sedan with some extra utility thrown in.
But as a sports wagon fan, the 5er GT worries me.
At its media launch, BMW couldn’t confirm whether or not the next the next 5er wagon (due in 2010) will be coming to Canada.
Phrases like “Yet to be decided” and “Still in the plans” aren’t very promising.
This year alone, we’ve lost the Dodge Magnum and Mazda6 wagons. Mercedes replaced its C Class wagon with the less-than-elegant GLK cute-ute. And if we lose the 5er wagon, I’ll certainly miss it.
On a drive from Innsbruck, Austria, to Munich last fall, the 530i Touring I borrowed proved to be a great drive. In fact, I was having so much fun at the wheel that I got to meet some new friends in the Austrian highway patrol, above. I’m not sure the new GT would inspire such spirited driving.
I’ll certainly miss the 5er wagon if it dies. But am I alone here?
After establishing a rabid fan club that started with its Integra predecessor—and just as most of its rivals were jumping in with both feet—Acura abandoned the premium compact coupe market when it canned its RSX in 2006.
Go figure.
But now, apparently, Acura is looking for forgiveness.
Honda's premium brand is seriously considering some kind of premium compact coupe. Most likely a front-driver with four-bangers (maybe even a hybrid), based on the next-gen 2011 Civic.
But in an all-of-a-sudden crowded segment field with the likes of the BMW 1 Series, Mini Cooper, Volvo C30 and forthcoming Lexus and Infiniti compacts, has Acura missed the premium compact coupe boat?
And what about the idea that the new RSX (or whatever it will be called) will more than likely go FWD again?
Does the new RSX need rear- or all-wheel-drive to compete?
Worn down by years of inattention from parent Government Motors, soon-to-be-sold-off Saab is in desperate need of a hit with its new 9-5 "flagship" sedan.
In the first six months of this year, globally, Saab built 9,061 9-5s—down 72.4 per cent from 2008.
So, as you can imagine, much is being made of the long-overdue 2010 update of the Swedish automaker’s 12-year-old 9-5 mid-size sedan, which Saab spat out some details of today before its official unveiling in Frankfurt next month.
Apparently, the 9-5 will be “the most technically advanced car it has made to date,” so says Saab.
Yet most of the noted features (head-up information display, Bi-Xenon adaptive headlights, adaptive cruise control, parking assistance and all-wheel-drive) competitors have been offering for years.
Sharing a longer wheelbase version of the GM platform that also underpins the Opel Insignia and forthcoming Buick Regal, at least the new 9-5 is going back to Saab’s traditional all-turbo engine lineup.
Said Saab Managing Director Jan-Ake Jonsson, “This car is the start of a new era for our brand,"
But hey: no pressure.
Despite all this new goodness, the 9-5 has some strikes against becoming Saab’s saving grace.
As customers move to value, 9-5’s mid-size luxury sedan segment is getting clobbered in this new economy. As well, so-called “mainstream luxury” brands like Saab and its Acura, Infiniti, and Volvo rivals, are also been dropped by buyers.
So, over to you: Is the new 9-5 the car to keep Saab alive?
Or are we watching the unveiling of potentially the last ever Saab flagship?
Let’s see…It’s the 50th anniversary of the original British Mini debut today. And we’re weeks away from the Frankfurt show. And about the only type of vehicle parent BMW hasn’t put out there is an amphibious Mini.
Add it all up, and we have the long rumoured Mini Coupé Concept.
As if the Mini wasn’t a minimalist ride to begin with, the Coupé does away with rear seats, and a good chunk of whatever little rear cargo space it had from its squarish rear end.
From the waist down, it’s basically a Mini Convertible. But the Coupé gets a more inclined windshield, almost-flat back hatch, curvier roof and a more pronounced C-pillar.
The concept gets the top-line John Cooper Works mill—1.6-litre twin-scroll turbocharged four, with 211 hp and up to 206 lb-ft. But expect the full range available when it goes on sale. Maybe Spring 2011.
Looking at this latest Mini, I’m channeling early-nineties Honda CR-X.
But what do you think of the latest in Mini’s growing model lineup?
NEW YORK – Ahead of this week’s New York auto show media days that start here in La Grande Pomme tomorrow, Government General Motors announced its hooked up with Segway (yes, they’re still around) to develop the two-seat PUMA, or Personal Urban Mobility and Accessibility.
Using existing technologies, including a lithium-ion battery and dual electric wheel motors, the PUMA’s high-tech value prop is its ability to “connect” with other road vehicles—or pedestrians and cyclists—then use that info to avoid collisions. It can also join together with other PUMAs to create cross-city trains capable of using special lanes for uninterrupted travel.
At least that’s GM’s story.
GM says the PUMA can travel at speeds of 56 km/h and have a range of 56 km between charges. The prototype here in New York is operational. But GM expects a next-generation model to appear later this year. Don’t get too hung up on the unfinished looks of this prototype. In early 2010, a complete concept could be unveiled.
The single-user Segway hasn’t exactly been a roaring success. Especially in climates like what we have here in Canada. So the PUMA will end up useful for only emerging markets as an alternative to more conventional two-wheeled transportation or gated retirement communities in the American south.
Or not. Like the Volt, GM may have a pricing issue with the PUMA already.
GM says the PUMA's cost could be one-quarter to one-third that of owning a conventional midsize vehicle, say between $7,500 and $10,000—or about twice that of what some speculate a Westernized Tata Nano may cost.
But here’s the bigger question: considering GM’s current problems selling run-of-the-mill vehicles, do you think they should be working on such unproven concepts?
Or does this make you feel better that GM is at least thinking about the future?
Sure. Anything on four wheels these days NOT fueled by dirty old oil is about as sexy as Jessica Alba and George Clooney put together.
But a recent Bloomberg article suggests the current global economy crisis will slow the much needed paradigm shift towards non-fossil fueled cars.
In other words: As automakers scramble just to keep the lights on, just who’s going to pay for the development of these new fangled electric/hydrogen wonder wheels? And more importantly, who will be able to afford to buy them?
Let’s paint this picture: If the global economy continues on its current path of shrinkage that would make George Castanza blush, not only will new car buyers have a harder time getting car loans as well as mortgages, people will lose jobs.
The result is a two-pronged hit to the future of alternative fueled cars:
1) As new car sales shrink—earlier today, Global Insight (USA) Inc. said U.S. light-vehicle sales probably will fall to 13.8 million units this year and then fall even more, to around 13.4 million, in 2009; in 2007, the industry generated U.S. vehicle sales of 16.15 million, down 2.5 percent from sales of 16.56 million in 2006—automakers from General Motors to Toyota to BMW will see profits drop, and subsequently cuts to any R&D profits that aren’t developing sales RIGHT NOW!
2) If people can't afford the cars that are available today, it's hard to imagine how they will be able to afford high-priced alternatives.
In light of watching his company's sales slump, at the Paris Motor Show last week, BMW Chief Executive Officer Norbert Reithofer said, "There's
too much hype about the electric car." Electric vehicles may make up 5
to 10 percent of new car sales in 2020, "but not more," he said.
With new car sales just as bad in Europe as in the U.S., even Volkswagen and BMW are joining Ford and others in the shift to smaller more efficient vehicles that will be affordable rather than building alternatives.
It's a dog chasing its tail situation. Until alternatives gain some real sales numbers, costs will not come down. But in the current dark days, few automakers will be able to afford to be bleeding edge leaders.
And, as any politician knows, people vote with their wallets. Just ask Canadian Liberal Leader Stephane Dion, fighting for votes in the current national election campaign.
His Green Shift environmental platform, that seemed like such a slam-dunk six months ago, is being washed away by concerns of baby boomer RRSPs disappearing faster than cheap car leasing.
So while, yes, the world would be a better place if we all drove zero emissions cars, given the current ugly (and getting uglier) financial outlooks, its hard to see any automaker stepping forward to subsidize the cost of new technologies in any meaningful numbers.
Chrysler joins The General (Chevy Volt), Nissan (Mixim concept) and Toyota (plug-in Prius), as automakers committed to having EV’s on sale—whether that’s commercially or to the public—by the start of the next decade.
But lingering questions—unproven lithium-ion battery technologies, high development costs, the public’s acceptance of a technology that still requires emissions to be sent into the atmosphere to generate electricity—still dog EVs for many new car buyers and bring into debate if any of these vehicles will end up as shallow PR stunts or viable consumer products.
To help you out, here’s a quick Crank/Vegas Line as to which of these EV proposals have a hope in Halifax in getting to a dealer showroom “sometime” in 2010:
Chrysler’s EV Trio – Crank/Vegas Line: 100-1
In terms of getting any of these EVs to the showroom, Chrysler is starting behind a couple of eight balls.
The Dodge EV sports car may have a chance. Its already based on an existing platform (the Lotus Europa) and likely requires the least amount of development.
But with a proposed lithium-ion battery pack and a price Chrysler says will come in “for less than the $109,000 Tesla electric sports car,” unproven technology and price are still two huge stumbling blocks.
The other two EVs Chrysler showed—EcoVoyager and Jeep Wrangler Unlimited—aren’t anywhere close to being production ready.
Even Chrysler CEO Bob Nardelli hinted that this week’s EV announcements were motivated to get U.S. government bailout money.
Bordering on corporate blackmail, he said Chrysler may have to face further layoffs and production capacity cutbacks if the U.S. federal government didn’t approve a $25-billion loan package to help car companies develop electric propulsion technology at an affordable price for consumers.
The was package approved by the U.S. House of Representatives this morning.
Then Chrysler promptly announced about 300 salaried Chrysler workers are being terminated today and Friday, Sept. 26.
Nice.
GM’s Chevrolet Volt – Crank/Vegas Line: 10-1
The fact the Volt will be GM product gawd Bob Lutz’s final swan song, helps it chances measurably.
But there are still questions.
GM is finding reinventing the car has not been easy. Development delays mean I’m still waiting for my personal invite from Lutz to drive prototypes—due last April.
Even GM CEO Rick Wagoner admitted that, while GM has been working hard on getting the Volt ready, "2010 would be great, but (we) can't guarantee that at this time."
And now I’m hearing that the promised 64 km range on battery power alone won’t be a real world number when it goes on sale. And that GM is backtracking on its initial statement that when the battery is depleted, the Volt’s gas engine will replenish the battery. Now GM is saying that regardless of how far you drive the Volt, the driver will only ever get up to 64 km (maybe) of electric-only range.
What’s next to fall off the promise list?
At least GM has moved beyond the concept stage, something we haven’t seen from the other EV players here.
Nissan Mixim - Crank/Vegas Line: 5-1
Nissan’s Mixim Concept, right, was one of the more radical concepts of last fall’s Frankfurt auto show. But the technology showcased in it was very real and will be coming to production cars by 2010.
During the Nissan 360 event in Portugal earlier this year, Nissan's head of global product planning, Thomas Lane, re-confirmed that the company plans to have an electric vehicle running in U.S. fleets by 2010.
That vehicle would also be made available at the retail level a year later.
According to Nissan, the new EV is almost done with some components borrowed from other cars but it will essentially be a dedicated battery-powered car rather than a conversion like the Denki Cube concept that was shown at this years New York auto show.
Toyota Prius plug-in – Crank Vegas Line: Sure bet
Toyota is making sure GM doesn’t get the upper hand in the race for zero or low-emission.
Despite rival Honda thinking lithium-ion batteries are still nonsense, the automaker has confirmed that it will start production of the lithium-ion powered, plug-in version of it’s popular Prius, in 2010, speculated left.
Expect production ready concepts of the regular gas-electric and plug-in Prius models at this January’s Detroit auto show.
Rumours have it that the 2010 launch will be small and for governments and fleet sales only, with mass consumer production starting in 2011 and 2012.
The definition of luxury as big and powerful is so 20th century. In the next decade, luxury will be defined not by the size of your engine or ride, but by the amount of technology, quality build and unique design.
That’s according to Nissan’s head pen and brand guru, Shiro Nakamura.
In a discussion of future products, Nakamura confirmed what The Crank took notice of last May: that Nissan’s premium Infiniti brand plans to add a smaller car than the current G Series to take on BMW’s 1 Series. But now, Nissan is also questioning the need for a revival of the full-size Q Series sedan, right, last seen in 2006.
"We want to be Tier 1 luxury, like BMW, Lexus," said Nakamura. But with society pushing for smaller cars, he’s not sure if a Q-like range-topping sedan is necessary for Infiniti to be a credible luxury brand.
Nakamura’s ideas aren’t anything we haven’t heard before.
Other luxury automakers see the market migrating to smaller, better made and more technologically advanced cars—and fast.
Lexus has all but confirmed a premium Lexus version of the next-gen Prius due next year, which to me, sounds like a no-brainer.
We already know that Cadillac is shedding its land yacht image, post haste. Instead of slow selling big rigs like the DTS and STS, it will introduce a small rear-drive sedan with a four-cylinder engine in North America in late 2010 as a 2011 model.
And the idea of a Cadillac version of the Chevy Volt hybrid is making the rounds in Detroit these days, as well.
Even performance brands, like BMW, think small and green is the way of the future.
"The eight-cylinder hasn't been produced in a three-shift operation for a long time," said Manfred Schoch, chairman of BMW's works council in a recent report.
Schoch even mentioned what some Bimmer fans might consider sacrilegious: Straight-Six-cylinder assembly will be phased out in Munich and replaced by four-cylinder output.
Will you be able to join the luxury brands "getting small?"
Wheels writer John LeBlanc was the owner of an advertising and marketing firm before indulging his lifelong passion for cars by becoming an automotive journalist. Join in the discussion as he provides expert critical analysis of the foibles of the auto industry.
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