The week ahead, Nov. 23-29.
Summary: Wednesday data dump in Washington will gauge state of U.S. joblessness and consumer spending, along with bargain-shopping melee of Black Friday lasting through weekend. Big Five Canadian banks begin reporting what are expected to be strong results. Widespread talk, from U.N. to EU to Australia, about global warming in lead-up to Copenhagen climate-change summit in December. In a U.S. Thanksgiving-shortened week, stock prices are bound to be volatile. In sports, Vanier and Grey Cup championships decided this weekend.
Canada: Al Gore in Toronto on climate-change implications for business, at Allstream Centre at Exhibition Place, 8 p.m., proceeds to David Suzuki Foundation.
U:S.: Indian PM Manmohan Singh visits Barack Obama at the White House. Former finance minister, father of India's economic liberalization, hopes to finalize Bush deal whereby India gains access to U.S. civilian nuclear tech and fuel in return for inspections of its civilian, but not military, nuclear facilities. Singh also urging U.S. to keep fighting Taliban in Afghanistan, and pressure neighbouring Pakistan to crack down on its militants. "We have been the victims of Pakistan-aided, abetted and inspired terrorism for nearly 25 years," PM told Washington Post ahead of meeting with Obama. "We would like the United States to use all its influence with Pakistan to desist from that path."
Britain: Public inquiry into U.K. role in lead-up to Iraq war begins, in London.
Economy
Canada: Statscan releases September employment insurance claims.
U.S.: Revised 3Q GDP will likely show growth of only 2.9% in that period, when U.S. officially emerged from recession, down from initial report of 3.5%, accounting for last week's report of larger-than-expected trade deficit. Also, closely watched University of Michigan consumer confidence survey, and S&P/Case-Shiller September and 3Q index of new-home prices. Conference Board releases its consumer confidence index for November. Plus weekly crude oil inventory numbers.
Germany: Ifo Institute's November business climate survey, expecting slight rise from October.
Brazil: Expect $2.8-billion (U.S.) deficit, following $2.3-billion deficit previous month.
Mexico: Forecast October jobless rate of 6.2%, down slightly from previous month's 6.4%.
Earnings reports: Bank of Montreal, George Weston 3Q earnings call, Zale (U.S. #1 jewellery chain), Heinz, Hormel (Spam), Medtronic, Barnes & Noble, Borders Group, Dollar Tree, J. Crew, American Eagle Outfitters, Brocade, TiVo, Warner Music, Hillenbrand (caskets), Eaton Vance. Also, Agnico-Eagle's CFO on raising capital in tough times.
Diversions
TV: "Frontline: The Card Game." Documentary on dubious practices in the credit-card industry. PBS, 9 p.m. Film Noir night on Turner Classic Movies (TCM). The Big Sleep, 1946 (Humphrey Bogart, Lauren Bacall) 2 p.m.; Gaslight, 1944 (Charles Boyer, Ingrid Bergman), 11 p.m.
WEDNESDAY
Bellwether Deere & Co. reports earnings today.
General
U.N.: Yvo de Boer, U.N. climate chief, gives webcast news conference on his expectations for Copenhagen climate-change summit.
Economy
Canada: Statscan releases 3Q financial corporate performance. OLRB hearing on whether Vale Inco's use of non-striking workers is legal. Shareholders of Calgary-based EnCana will approve today a split-up of the firm into separate natural gas and integrated oil companies. No wonder new Sir Norman Foster-designed HQ tower not named for EnCana, but called Bow Tower - tallest in Western Canada. Move calculated to boost share value of separate firms - "unlock shareholder value" is the usual term - but will make the two widely held firms more vulnerable to takeover.
U.S.: Busy day for key stats: Closely watched initial claims for jobless benefits from Labor Department expected to show slight dip to about 500,000. Commerce Department releases durable goods orders, personal income and spending, and new-home sales volume for October. Fed releases minutes from Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of Oct. 3-4. Fed watchers expect gloomy downgrade of earlier jobless forecast for 2010, up from low- to mid-9% range. Fed has already forecast higher-than-usual unemployment through to 2011, and will want to see several quarters of robust GDP growth and easing of jobless claims and unemployment rate before abandoning its near-zero key lending rate.
Japan: Export and small-business confidence figures will gauge strength of nascent recovery. Also Bank of Japan deputy governor Yamaguchi has speech today.
China: Longyuan, China's biggest wind power generator, kicks off roadshow for $2.2-billion (U.S.) initial public offering - a test of global investors' belief in alternative energy's profit prospects.
Germany: GfK consumer confidence index.
Britain: Revised GDP to show 3Q contraction was not as severe as initially reported. But laggard U.K. economy, still a holdout to positive GDP growth, will keep pressure on Bank of England to spur recovery.
Italy: Consumer confidence for November, retail sales for September.
Mexico: 3Q $2.47-billion (U.S.) deficit expected, following $454-billion (U.S.) deficit previous month. Move to deficit caused by lower remittances, seasonal tourism weakness, slip in trade figures.
Earnings reports: Tiffany & Co., Delphi Corp. (U.S. #1 auto parts), Deere & Co.
THURSDAY
Hajj piligrimage begins today through to Nov. 30
General
Canada: CFL Player Awards announced. Honourary degree recipients Eleanor Wachtel and Richard Pound speak at McGill convocation.
Saudi Arabia: Annual Hajj pilgrimage, one of the five pillars of Islam, begins today in Saudi cities of Mecca and Medina. (Until Nov. 30.)
China: Omega World Cup of Golf at Mission Hills, near Shenzhen, hosts teams from 28 nations. (Until Nov. 29.)
Economy
Canada: Statscan releases report on September payroll employment, earnings and hours, and international travel stats.
U.S.: Thanksgiving national holiday; markets closed. Eighty-third annual Macy's Day Thanksgiving Parade (9 a.m., CBS, NBC) alters route from Broadway onto 7th Avenue.
Germany: Consumer price index (CPI).
Japan: Employment, consumer prices and retail-sales stats.
Brazil: October jobless rate expected to be 7.5%, easing from previous month's 7.7%. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Friday he expects economy to add 1.3 million payroll jobs by year-end.
New Zealand: Business confidence and trade stats.
Earnings reports: Mosaid Technologies, Gottschalks Inc.
Diversions
TV: "Doc Zone: Carbon Hunters." CBC documentary on carbon trading market: It's worth billions, but will it curb global warming? 8 p.m. Michael Moore (Capitalism: A Love Story) guests on "The Hour," 11:05 p.m. Grace Kelly night on TCM: To Catch A Thief, 1955 (Cary Grant), 8 p.m.; High Society, 1956 (Bing Crosby, Frank Sinatra), 10 p.m.; The Swan, 1956 (Alec Guinness, Louis Jordan), 12 a.m.; Wedding in Monaco, 1956 (documentary footage of Kelly's marriage to Prince Rainer of Monaco), 2 a.m.
FRIDAY
Summiteer Harper; Black Friday shopping spree.
General
Canada: Stephen Harper at Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting, Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago.
Economy
Canada: Statscan releases 3Q balance of international payments.
U.S.: "Black Friday," traditional first day of holiday season sales. Wal-Mart will be open 24 hours through weekend to prevent repeat of crowding that killed one employee last year, rival discounters Target, Best Buy and others to open at 5 a.m. today. Expect 77 million U.S. shoppers today alone and $43 billion in sales - about 6% of total holiday-season sales over the three days. Obviously analysts, who expect rise or fall of about 1% from last year, are monitoring consumer buying power. But last year was misleading - Black Friday-weekend sales were up 7%, but entire season sales were down more than 3%, the worst showing since records were kept. In 2008-09, 45 U.S. retail chains have gone bankrupt. (The Black Friday term refers to the period of the year when retailers' books finally start showing black ink, or a profit.)
Eurozone: Consumer and business confidence data, plus inflation expectations.
Germany: Import price stats.
France: Consumer confidence for November.
Italy: Wages report.
Japan: CPI figures will confirm deflationary trend warned of by government last week, likely a 2.2% decline in prices in October. This will pressure a reluctant Bank of Japan to buy government bonds. Also, key jobs and household consumption figures released for the sluggish Japanese economy.
Switzerland: KOF industrial sentiment index.
New Zealand: Inflation forecast.
Diversions
TV: John Irving, Morgan Freeman and U.S. political satirist David Cross guest on "The Hour," CBC, 11 p.m.
SATURDAY
Canada: Queen's University Golden Gaels and University of Calgary Dinos compete for Vanier Cup, championship of Canadian university football.
Diversions
Steely Dan at Place des Arts, Montreal.
SUNDAY
Manuel Zelaya, hoping to be reinstated as Honduran president.
General
Canada: Montreal Alouettes and Saskatchewan Roughriders compete for Grey Cup, CFL championship, at McMahon Stadium in Calgary, 6:30 p.m.
Honduras: Emergency presidential election to end crisis that began with June military coup that ousted Manuel Zelaya, now holed up in Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa. Brazil and Argentina say they won't recognize election results unless Zelaya is first returned to power. U.S. has insisted Honduras' Congress should vote on Zelaya's reinstatement, but it won't do so until after the election. Zelaya has urged supporters to boycott the vote.
Equatorial Guinea: Voters in tiny, oil-rich West African nation will re-elect Teodoro Obiang Nguema, president for 30 years since coming to power in a coup. He is doubtless hoping to improve on his 2002 outing, when he captured 97.1% of the vote.
You will find the global activities to face lighter headwinds that the US will. I still like Asia and parts of Europe with the BRIC's still showing growth for a while to go. A little bubbly on certain assets, so we may see a pullback in the near term, unless we are going to establish lofty highs as the new 'norm'. US will have slow growth for the next 9-12 months at about 1.8-2.2%, uinless we can get out act together here in the US. Thanks Dave for the synopsis I aked for last night. UR good man. If you are trading lighten the load for the next week, p;ace some straddles or puts on certain sectors which I will not mention. Remember last week of the month with a holiday to boot. I know these markets fairly well. Have a great Thanksgiving. P.S. Congratulations on your skating victory's.
Posted by: John Merritt | 11/22/2009 at 09:04 PM
Many thanks for your note, John. And for noting our skaters. I hope this is the sort of "look ahead" you are thinking of. Still searching for sources to give a fuller picture. But, as with this blog in general, it's a work in progress! And I'll be careful with the investments...Cheers, David
Posted by: David Olive | 11/23/2009 at 02:58 PM