The week ahead, Nov. 30-Dec. 6.
Summary: December is usually a good month for the stock market, with an average gain in the S&P 500 of 1.7% since 1950. But equities, after a more than 60% gain since the March nadir, and now at a 13-month high, have bears anticipating an "overdue correction." Dubai jitters may deliver one if sovereign wealth fund woes are suspected of extending beyond Persian Gulf emirates to Pacific Rim exporters similarly weakened by recessary cut in cash flows. A busy Obama explains another Afghan troop surge in a Tuesday night TV address and hosts a Thursday "jobs forum." With the Copenhagen climate-change summit upon us next week, there's lots of summit-prep going on, especially in Europe and Asia.
Canada: New Brunswick fiscal budget tabled by premier Shawn Graham.
U.S.: U.S. President Barack Obama national TV address, 8 p.m., on Afghan troop surge of as many as 35,000 more soldiers and trainers, and an assurance to war weary Americans that America's Afghan commitment "is not open-ended." Most new troops are to be deployed in Canadian base of Kandahar in southeast, which, like neighbouring British-held Helmand province, is a Taliban stronghold. NATO members will be watching to see if Obama shifts goal from "defeat" of Al Qaeda to "dismantling" and "degrading" of enemy - a hoped-for sign that the end game is nearer rather than later. Consensus is evolving that surge's purpose is to gain leverage for talks with Taliban with goal of a negotiated settlement.
U.S.: Senate today begins debate on its healthcare bill, with both Dem and GOP dissenters determined to make troublesome amendments. Even if bill passes, and before Christmas break as Dem leadership hopes, resulting bill will have to be reconciled with House bill that passed by narrow margin last month to produce final bill Obama can sign early next year.
Mexico (Cancun): Global Congress on Combatting Counterfeiting and Piracy, public/private gathering of Interpol, customs officials, politicos, business leaders. Somali piracy will be on the agenda along with intellectual property rights - of particular concern to tech patent-holders and luxury-goods makers.
Eurozone: Lionel Messi of Barcelona strong contender to be named European Footballer of the Year today, by France Football magazine.
Portugal (Lisbon): Fireworks and Euro-bigwigs including Herman Van Rompuy, first permanent EU president, in attendance as Lisbon Treaty goes into effect today, with aims to make EU more efficient, democratic, and influential on world stage.
U.N.: Yukiya Amano of Japan succeeds Mohamed El Baradei, ending the Nobel Peace Prize laureate's 12-year tenure as director-general of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Canada: Scotia Capital Precious Metals conference. Gathering for goldbugs, who will doubtless explain why, with more fears of deflation than inflation on the horizon, the yellow metal is nonetheless at euphoric highs and destined to go higher.
U.S. Closely watched Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index for manufacturing, expected to slip to 55.0 for November from 55.7 in October. Also closely watched major automakers' report on November U.S. sales.
Australia: Reserve Bank expected to hike rates to 3.75%, stunning break from rest of industrialized world. (Only Norway has also begun raising rates.) Dubai is a scare along with modest slide in global equity markets. But Aussie indicators this week will continue bullish: Inventories (Monday), down 1.3%; building approvals (today), up 1.8%; and retail sales (Thursday), up 0.3%. Like Canada, Australia came into the downturn after several years of strong GDP growth.
U.S.: Staples Inc. 3Q results.
Canada: East Coast Music Awards nominations announced 10 a.m.
U.S.: Grammy award nominees announced in live concert, CBS 8-9 p.m. EST.
Belgium (Brussels): Annual Federation of European Securities Exchanges summit. First post-crash meeting will see talk of regulatory reform overshadow usual trade-show focus.
Eurozone: EU unveils State Aid Scoreboard, effort to cut government aid to industry, showing state subsidies for each Eurozone nation over previous year.
Brazil: Industrial output for October expected to show 5.1% decline, better than previous month's 7.8% drop. Brazil's economic recovery has been driven by domestic demand.
U.S. Walgreen November sales. Brown-Forman Corp. (Jack Daniels) 2Q results.
U.S.: Barack Obama hosts "jobs forum" at White House, one day ahead of release of latest jobless numbers, which are expected to show unemployment unchanged but still high at 10.2%. Event, also held by presidents Clinton and Bush II, is brainstorming session among business, labour, academic leaders.
U.S: Ben Bernanke renomination hearing before Senate Banking Committee, whose chairman, Chris Dodd, expects reconfirmation. But there likely will harsh words for the Fed chairman, blamed by many Dems and Republicans for the crash and irate about the subsequent bank bailout.
Belgium (Brussels): Canada's Lawrence Cannon at NATO foreign ministers two-day conference, focus on Afghanistan.
U.S.: Weekly jobless claims and revised 3Q productivity. ISM services index, expected to improve to 51.5 from 50.6 the previous month.
Canada: Bombardier 3Q earnings. CIBC 4Q earnings. TD Bank 4Q earnings (7:30 a.m. EST).
U.S.: November sales from retailers Costco, Target, Gap, TJX (TJ Maxx, Winners), Nordstrom, J.C. Penney, Saks, Rite Aid, Wet Seal, Kohl's, Gymboree, Abercrombie & Fitch, BJ's Wholesale Club and Limited Brands (Victoria's Secret). Fleetwood Enterprises, Novell, and Toll Brothers Q4 results. Jos. A. Bank Clothiers Q3 results. Del Monte Foods and Smith & Wesson 2Q results.
Canada: Dalton McGuinty, Ontario premier, embarks on India trade mission. Focus on promoting province's green-tech firms and luring Indian FDI in same, and pondering Indian placidity over value-added taxes.
Canada: Jack Layton addresses Canadian Club of Winnipeg (luncheon).
Canada: Czech-born movie-maker Ivan Reitman (Animal House, Meatballs, Ghostbusters, Kindergarten Cop) honoured for lifetime achievement at Whistler Film Festival. I know, I don't get it either.
Spain (Barcelona): Davis Cup finals between Spain and Czech Republic. (Until Dec. 6.)
Canada: Statscan releases November labour force survey (7 a.m.).
U.S.: Employment data for November (8:30 a.m. EST), expected to show U.S. economy lost about 130,000 jobs in November, down from 190,000 the previous month, with jobless rate remaining at 10.2%. Also factory orders for October (10 a.m. EST).
Colombia: CPI expected to rise 0.04% for November, following 0.13% decline previous month, reducing deflationary worries.
U.S.: Gottschalks Inc. Q1 results.
Canada: On the 20th anniversary of the murder of 14 women students at the Ecole Polytechnique in Montreal, Canadians will commemorate the tragedy in ceremonies of mourning and events organized for today's National Day of Remembrance and Action on Violence Against Women.
Romania: Second round of presidential voting. Centre-right incumbent Traian Basescu hopes to prevail against Social Democrat challenger Mircea Geoana.
Bolivia: Incumbent president Evo Morales vies to retain post in general election today.