The week ahead, Nov. 30-Dec. 6.

          
  

Key events of the week ahead.

 

Summary: December is usually a good month for the stock market, with an average gain in the S&P 500 of 1.7% since 1950. But equities, after a more than 60% gain since the March nadir, and now at a 13-month high, have bears anticipating an "overdue correction." Dubai jitters may deliver one if sovereign wealth fund woes are suspected of extending beyond Persian Gulf emirates to Pacific Rim exporters similarly weakened by recessary cut in cash flows. A busy Obama explains another Afghan troop surge in a Tuesday night TV address and hosts a Thursday "jobs forum." With the Copenhagen climate-change summit upon us next week, there's lots of summit-prep going on, especially in Europe and Asia. 

MONDAY

 

 World newspaper execs gather in Hyderabad today.

 

General

 

Canada: Parliamentary inquiry into anti-Semitism runs for first few days of the week. Auditor General Sheila Fraser testifies today to Commons health commitee on electronic health records, presumably with focus on Canada Healthways, cousin of troubled Ontario eHealth program. Expert review panel reports on Medical Isotope Production, fallout from Chalk River fiasco, to Lisa Raitt, federal natural resources minister.

 

Canada: Manitoba's Speech from the Throne, high-profile debut for Greg Selinger, 21st Manitoba premier. Denied a speaking part, he gets to sit quietly while the Lieutenant Governor describes his government's agenda. 

 

U.S.: Cyber Monday, retail tech-sales blitz following Thanksgiving weekend consumer spending spree that began with "Black Friday."  

 

Dubai fallout: Expect reports this week on impact in Pakistan, largest recipient of FDI from Dubai, including suspension of $43-billion project near Karachi and potential local defaults. Also impact on remittances; biggest flows from Persian Gulf are to South Asia and Philippines. World markets, while not entirely becalmed, should be stable - at least so far as Dubai goes - after U.A.E.'s weekend assurance it will stand behind Dubai's total $80 billion (U.S.) debt.

 

Switzerland (Geneva): World Trade Organization ministerial conference on Doha round, global economic woes, trade disputes.

 

China (Nanjing): China hosts EU summit on climate change, global economic crisis, tech cooperation. Business summit in parallel. China insistent that First World nations must go first in potential economic sacrifice.

 

Belgium: EC one-day conference on tax changes that could spur low-carbon economy.

 

India (Hyderabad): World Newspaper Congress. Industry reps from 80 nations on multi-media future. (Nov. 30-Dec. 3)

 

Scotland: Scottish independence referendum draft bill published on what is St. Andrew's Day.

 

Economic indicators 

 

Canada: 3Q GDP by income and expenditure, September GDP by industry, October industrial product and raw materials price indexes, all released 8:30 a.m. EST.

 

Chile: Expect 4.4% decline in October industrial production year-on-year, improvement from 5.2% drop previous period. Chilean jobless rate expected to ease to 9.8% from October's 10.2%, which will bring it below America's.

 

Corporate activity

 

Hong Kong: Heavily indebted Sands China, latest of recent casino IPOs, debuts with $2.5-billion (U.S.) offering on HK market today.

 

U.S.: 3Q results for apparel retailer Guess Inc. and auto-parts giant Delphi Corp. 4Q results for Flight Safety Technologies Inc.

 

 

TUESDAY

 

Obama TV address tonight on another Afghan troop surge.

 

General

Canada: New Brunswick fiscal budget tabled by premier Shawn Graham.

U.S.: U.S. President Barack Obama national TV address, 8 p.m., on Afghan troop surge of as many as 35,000 more soldiers and trainers, and an assurance to war weary Americans that America's Afghan commitment "is not open-ended." Most new troops are to be deployed in Canadian base of Kandahar in southeast, which, like neighbouring British-held Helmand province, is a Taliban stronghold. NATO members will be watching to see if Obama shifts goal from "defeat" of Al Qaeda to "dismantling" and "degrading" of enemy - a hoped-for sign that the end game is nearer rather than later. Consensus is evolving that surge's purpose is to gain leverage for talks with Taliban with goal of a negotiated settlement.

U.S.: Senate today begins debate on its healthcare bill, with both Dem and GOP dissenters determined to make troublesome amendments. Even if bill passes, and before Christmas break as Dem leadership hopes, resulting bill will have to be reconciled with House bill that passed by narrow margin last month to produce final bill Obama can sign early next year.

Mexico (Cancun): Global Congress on Combatting Counterfeiting and Piracy, public/private gathering of Interpol, customs officials, politicos, business leaders. Somali piracy will be on the agenda along with intellectual property rights - of particular concern to tech patent-holders and luxury-goods makers. 

Eurozone: Lionel Messi of Barcelona strong contender to be named European Footballer of the Year today, by France Football magazine.

Portugal (Lisbon): Fireworks and Euro-bigwigs including Herman Van Rompuy, first permanent EU president, in attendance as Lisbon Treaty goes into effect today, with aims to make EU more efficient, democratic, and influential on world stage.

U.N.: Yukiya Amano of Japan succeeds Mohamed El Baradei, ending the Nobel Peace Prize laureate's 12-year tenure as director-general of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Economic indicators 

Canada: Scotia Capital Precious Metals conference. Gathering for goldbugs, who will doubtless explain why, with more fears of deflation than inflation on the horizon, the yellow metal is nonetheless at euphoric highs and destined to go higher.

U.S. Closely watched Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index for manufacturing, expected to slip to 55.0 for November from 55.7 in October. Also closely watched major automakers' report on November U.S. sales.

Australia: Reserve Bank expected to hike rates to 3.75%, stunning break from rest of industrialized world. (Only Norway has also begun raising rates.) Dubai is a scare along with modest slide in global equity markets. But Aussie indicators this week will continue bullish: Inventories (Monday), down 1.3%; building approvals (today), up 1.8%; and retail sales (Thursday), up 0.3%. Like Canada, Australia came into the downturn after several years of strong GDP growth.

Corporate activity

U.S.: Staples Inc. 3Q results.  

 

WEDNESDAY

 "Jack" maker Brown-Forman reports financials today.

General

Canada: East Coast Music Awards nominations announced 10 a.m.

U.S.: Grammy award nominees announced in live concert, CBS 8-9 p.m. EST.

Belgium (Brussels): Annual Federation of European Securities Exchanges summit. First post-crash meeting will see talk of regulatory reform overshadow usual trade-show focus.   

Eurozone: EU unveils State Aid Scoreboard, effort to cut government aid to industry, showing state subsidies for each Eurozone nation over previous year.

Economic indicators

Brazil: Industrial output for October expected to show 5.1% decline, better than previous month's 7.8% drop. Brazil's economic recovery has been driven by domestic demand.

Corporate activity

U.S. Walgreen November sales. Brown-Forman Corp. (Jack Daniels) 2Q results.

 

THURSDAY

 Bernanke's reconfirmation hearings as Fed chief might be a roast. 

U.S.: Barack Obama hosts "jobs forum" at White House, one day ahead of release of latest jobless numbers, which are expected to show unemployment unchanged but still high at 10.2%. Event, also held by presidents Clinton and Bush II, is brainstorming session among business, labour, academic leaders.

U.S: Ben Bernanke renomination hearing before Senate Banking Committee, whose chairman, Chris Dodd, expects reconfirmation. But there likely will harsh words for the Fed chairman, blamed by many Dems and Republicans for the crash and irate about the subsequent bank bailout.

Belgium (Brussels): Canada's Lawrence Cannon at NATO foreign ministers two-day conference, focus on Afghanistan.

Economic indicators

U.S.: Weekly jobless claims and revised 3Q productivity. ISM services index, expected to improve to 51.5 from 50.6 the previous month.

Corporate activity

Canada: Bombardier 3Q earnings. CIBC 4Q earnings. TD Bank 4Q earnings (7:30 a.m. EST).

U.S.: November sales from retailers Costco, Target, Gap, TJX (TJ Maxx, Winners), Nordstrom, J.C. Penney, Saks, Rite Aid, Wet Seal, Kohl's, Gymboree, Abercrombie & Fitch, BJ's Wholesale Club and Limited Brands (Victoria's Secret). Fleetwood Enterprises, Novell, and Toll Brothers Q4 results. Jos. A. Bank Clothiers Q3 results. Del Monte Foods and Smith & Wesson 2Q results. 

 

FRIDAY

 India-bound Dalton McGuinty gets an earful about the HST.

General

Canada: Dalton McGuinty, Ontario premier, embarks on India trade mission. Focus on promoting province's green-tech firms and luring Indian FDI in same, and pondering Indian placidity over value-added taxes.

Canada: Jack Layton addresses Canadian Club of Winnipeg (luncheon).

Canada: Czech-born movie-maker Ivan Reitman (Animal House, Meatballs, Ghostbusters, Kindergarten Cop) honoured for lifetime achievement at Whistler Film Festival. I know, I don't get it either.

Spain (Barcelona): Davis Cup finals between Spain and Czech Republic. (Until Dec. 6.)

Economic indicators 

Canada: Statscan releases November labour force survey (7 a.m.).

U.S.: Employment data for November (8:30 a.m. EST), expected to show U.S. economy lost about 130,000 jobs in November, down from 190,000 the previous month, with jobless rate remaining at 10.2%. Also factory orders for October (10 a.m. EST).

Colombia: CPI expected to rise 0.04% for November, following 0.13% decline previous month, reducing deflationary worries.

Corporate activity

U.S.: Gottschalks Inc. Q1 results.
 

SATURDAY

 Oasis of the Seas, five times' larger than the Titanic.

General

 

U.S.: Fort Hood shootings preliminary report on possible security lapses. Oasis of the Seas, world's largest cruise ship, embarks on maiden voyage from home port of Fort Lauderdale to east Caribbean.

 

SUNDAY

 Today marks the 20th anniversary of the "Montreal Massacre" tragedy. 

General

Canada: On the 20th anniversary of the murder of 14 women students at the Ecole Polytechnique in Montreal, Canadians will commemorate the tragedy in ceremonies of mourning and events organized for today's National Day of Remembrance and Action on Violence Against Women.

Romania: Second round of presidential voting. Centre-right incumbent Traian Basescu hopes to prevail against Social Democrat challenger Mircea Geoana.

Bolivia: Incumbent president Evo Morales vies to retain post in general election today.

 

Sources: Canadian Press, Reuters, Economist, Financial Times (U.K.), Forbes.

 

Click on images to enlarge.

 

 

 

Key events of the week ahead.

 

Summary: December is usually a good month for the stock market, with an average gain in the S&P 500 of 1.7% since 1950. But equities, after a more than 60% gain since the March nadir, and now at a 13-month high, have bears anticipating an "overdue correction." Dubai jitters may deliver one if sovereign wealth fund woes are suspected of extending beyond Persian Gulf emirates to Pacific Rim exporters similarly weakened by recessary cut in cash flows. A busy Obama explains another Afghan troop surge in a Tuesday night TV address and hosts a Thursday "jobs forum." With the Copenhagen climate-change summit upon us next week, there's lots of summit-prep going on, especially in Europe and Asia. 

MONDAY

 

 World newspaper execs gather in Hyderabad today.

 

General

 

Canada: Parliamentary inquiry into anti-Semitism runs for first few days of the week. Auditor General Sheila Fraser testifies today to Commons health commitee on electronic health records, presumably with focus on Canada Healthways, cousin of troubled Ontario eHealth program. Expert review panel reports on Medical Isotope Production, fallout from Chalk River fiasco, to Lisa Raitt, federal natural resources minister.

 

Canada: Manitoba's Speech from the Throne, high-profile debut for Greg Selinger, 21st Manitoba premier. Denied a speaking part, he gets to sit quietly while the Lieutenant Governor describes his government's agenda. 

 

U.S.: Cyber Monday, retail tech-sales blitz following Thanksgiving weekend consumer spending spree that began with "Black Friday."  

 

Dubai fallout: Expect reports this week on impact in Pakistan, largest recipient of FDI from Dubai, including suspension of $43-billion project near Karachi and potential local defaults. Also impact on remittances; biggest flows from Persian Gulf are to South Asia and Philippines. World markets, while not entirely becalmed, should be stable - at least so far as Dubai goes - after U.A.E.'s weekend assurance it will stand behind Dubai's total $80 billion (U.S.) debt.

 

Switzerland (Geneva): World Trade Organization ministerial conference on Doha round, global economic woes, trade disputes.

 

China (Nanjing): China hosts EU summit on climate change, global economic crisis, tech cooperation. Business summit in parallel. China insistent that First World nations must go first in potential economic sacrifice.

 

Belgium: EC one-day conference on tax changes that could spur low-carbon economy.

 

India (Hyderabad): World Newspaper Congress. Industry reps from 80 nations on multi-media future. (Nov. 30-Dec. 3)

 

Scotland: Scottish independence referendum draft bill published on what is St. Andrew's Day.

 

Economic indicators 

 

Canada: 3Q GDP by income and expenditure, September GDP by industry, October industrial product and raw materials price indexes, all released 8:30 a.m. EST.

 

Chile: Expect 4.4% decline in October industrial production year-on-year, improvement from 5.2% drop previous period. Chilean jobless rate expected to ease to 9.8% from October's 10.2%, which will bring it below America's.

 

Corporate activity

 

Hong Kong: Heavily indebted Sands China, latest of recent casino IPOs, debuts with $2.5-billion (U.S.) offering on HK market today.

 

U.S.: 3Q results for apparel retailer Guess Inc. and auto-parts giant Delphi Corp. 4Q results for Flight Safety Technologies Inc.

 

 

TUESDAY

 

Obama TV address tonight on another Afghan troop surge.

 

General

Canada: New Brunswick fiscal budget tabled by premier Shawn Graham.

U.S.: U.S. President Barack Obama national TV address, 8 p.m., on Afghan troop surge of as many as 35,000 more soldiers and trainers, and an assurance to war weary Americans that America's Afghan commitment "is not open-ended." Most new troops are to be deployed in Canadian base of Kandahar in southeast, which, like neighbouring British-held Helmand province, is a Taliban stronghold. NATO members will be watching to see if Obama shifts goal from "defeat" of Al Qaeda to "dismantling" and "degrading" of enemy - a hoped-for sign that the end game is nearer rather than later. Consensus is evolving that surge's purpose is to gain leverage for talks with Taliban with goal of a negotiated settlement.

U.S.: Senate today begins debate on its healthcare bill, with both Dem and GOP dissenters determined to make troublesome amendments. Even if bill passes, and before Christmas break as Dem leadership hopes, resulting bill will have to be reconciled with House bill that passed by narrow margin last month to produce final bill Obama can sign early next year.

Mexico (Cancun): Global Congress on Combatting Counterfeiting and Piracy, public/private gathering of Interpol, customs officials, politicos, business leaders. Somali piracy will be on the agenda along with intellectual property rights - of particular concern to tech patent-holders and luxury-goods makers. 

Eurozone: Lionel Messi of Barcelona strong contender to be named European Footballer of the Year today, by France Football magazine.

Portugal (Lisbon): Fireworks and Euro-bigwigs including Herman Van Rompuy, first permanent EU president, in attendance as Lisbon Treaty goes into effect today, with aims to make EU more efficient, democratic, and influential on world stage.

U.N.: Yukiya Amano of Japan succeeds Mohamed El Baradei, ending the Nobel Peace Prize laureate's 12-year tenure as director-general of the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

Economic indicators 

Canada: Scotia Capital Precious Metals conference. Gathering for goldbugs, who will doubtless explain why, with more fears of deflation than inflation on the horizon, the yellow metal is nonetheless at euphoric highs and destined to go higher.

U.S. Closely watched Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index for manufacturing, expected to slip to 55.0 for November from 55.7 in October. Also closely watched major automakers' report on November U.S. sales.

Australia: Reserve Bank expected to hike rates to 3.75%, stunning break from rest of industrialized world. (Only Norway has also begun raising rates.) Dubai is a scare along with modest slide in global equity markets. But Aussie indicators this week will continue bullish: Inventories (Monday), down 1.3%; building approvals (today), up 1.8%; and retail sales (Thursday), up 0.3%. Like Canada, Australia came into the downturn after several years of strong GDP growth.

Corporate activity

U.S.: Staples Inc. 3Q results.  

 

WEDNESDAY

 "Jack" maker Brown-Forman reports financials today.

General

Canada: East Coast Music Awards nominations announced 10 a.m.

U.S.: Grammy award nominees announced in live concert, CBS 8-9 p.m. EST.

Belgium (Brussels): Annual Federation of European Securities Exchanges summit. First post-crash meeting will see talk of regulatory reform overshadow usual trade-show focus.   

Eurozone: EU unveils State Aid Scoreboard, effort to cut government aid to industry, showing state subsidies for each Eurozone nation over previous year.

Economic indicators

Brazil: Industrial output for October expected to show 5.1% decline, better than previous month's 7.8% drop. Brazil's economic recovery has been driven by domestic demand.

Corporate activity

U.S. Walgreen November sales. Brown-Forman Corp. (Jack Daniels) 2Q results.

 

THURSDAY

 Bernanke's reconfirmation hearings as Fed chief might be a roast. 

U.S.: Barack Obama hosts "jobs forum" at White House, one day ahead of release of latest jobless numbers, which are expected to show unemployment unchanged but still high at 10.2%. Event, also held by presidents Clinton and Bush II, is brainstorming session among business, labour, academic leaders.

U.S: Ben Bernanke renomination hearing before Senate Banking Committee, whose chairman, Chris Dodd, expects reconfirmation. But there likely will harsh words for the Fed chairman, blamed by many Dems and Republicans for the crash and irate about the subsequent bank bailout.

Belgium (Brussels): Canada's Lawrence Cannon at NATO foreign ministers two-day conference, focus on Afghanistan.

Economic indicators

U.S.: Weekly jobless claims and revised 3Q productivity. ISM services index, expected to improve to 51.5 from 50.6 the previous month.

Corporate activity

Canada: Bombardier 3Q earnings. CIBC 4Q earnings. TD Bank 4Q earnings (7:30 a.m. EST).

U.S.: November sales from retailers Costco, Target, Gap, TJX (TJ Maxx, Winners), Nordstrom, J.C. Penney, Saks, Rite Aid, Wet Seal, Kohl's, Gymboree, Abercrombie & Fitch, BJ's Wholesale Club and Limited Brands (Victoria's Secret). Fleetwood Enterprises, Novell, and Toll Brothers Q4 results. Jos. A. Bank Clothiers Q3 results. Del Monte Foods and Smith & Wesson 2Q results. 

 

FRIDAY

 India-bound Dalton McGuinty gets an earful about the HST.

General

Canada: Dalton McGuinty, Ontario premier, embarks on India trade mission. Focus on promoting province's green-tech firms and luring Indian FDI in same, and pondering Indian placidity over value-added taxes.

Canada: Jack Layton addresses Canadian Club of Winnipeg (luncheon).

Canada: Czech-born movie-maker Ivan Reitman (Animal House, Meatballs, Ghostbusters, Kindergarten Cop) honoured for lifetime achievement at Whistler Film Festival. I know, I don't get it either.

Spain (Barcelona): Davis Cup finals between Spain and Czech Republic. (Until Dec. 6.)

Economic indicators 

Canada: Statscan releases November labour force survey (7 a.m.).

U.S.: Employment data for November (8:30 a.m. EST), expected to show U.S. economy lost about 130,000 jobs in November, down from 190,000 the previous month, with jobless rate remaining at 10.2%. Also factory orders for October (10 a.m. EST).

Colombia: CPI expected to rise 0.04% for November, following 0.13% decline previous month, reducing deflationary worries.

Corporate activity

U.S.: Gottschalks Inc. Q1 results.
 

SATURDAY

 Oasis of the Seas, five times' larger than the Titanic.

General

 

U.S.: Fort Hood shootings preliminary report on possible security lapses. Oasis of the Seas, world's largest cruise ship, embarks on maiden voyage from home port of Fort Lauderdale to east Caribbean.

 

SUNDAY

 Today marks the 20th anniversary of the "Montreal Massacre" tragedy. 

General

Canada: On the 20th anniversary of the murder of 14 women students at the Ecole Polytechnique in Montreal, Canadians will commemorate the tragedy in ceremonies of mourning and events organized for today's National Day of Remembrance and Action on Violence Against Women.

Romania: Second round of presidential voting. Centre-right incumbent Traian Basescu hopes to prevail against Social Democrat challenger Mircea Geoana.

Bolivia: Incumbent president Evo Morales vies to retain post in general election today.

 

Sources: Canadian Press, Reuters, Economist, Financial Times (U.K.), Forbes.

 

Click on images to enlarge.