The week ahead, Dec. 7-Dec. 13.

           

 

Key events of the week ahead.

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

General

 

Canada: Governor-General Michaelle Jean state visit to Mexico yesterday and today, Costa Rica and Guatemala to follow (to Dec. 15). Dalton McGuinty continues India state visit (to Dec. 11).

 

U.S. (Washington): Barack Obama hosts Turkish prime minister Recep Yayyip Erdogan at WH. Official topics include Afghan war and endless Cypress conflict. Unofficial topics: Turkey's languishing bid to be first Islamic member of EU, thwarted by Turkey's human-rights record; and changed status of Turkey as reliable U.S. ally after it stunned Bush's Pentagon by forbidding an Iraqi invasion from the north in March 2003.

 

Denmark (Copenhagen): United Nations Climate Change Conference begins (to Dec. 18). Biggest climate meeting in history, with 15,000 participants from 192 nations, to negotiate curbs on greenhouse gas emissions and raise billions of dollars for poor nations in aid and green technology. China, India, some U.S. senators and others have made it clear a binding legal agreement is impossible. But a political one is, with a successor to Kyoto reached next year, one year ahead of Kyoto's expiry. Most world leaders will show up near end of the conference, which wraps up Dec. 18. 

 

France (Paris): La Tour d'Argent, the leading Paris restaurant, begins two-day auction of 18,000 bottles from its famous wine cellar, with the expected 1-million euros proceeds to restocking the cellar and refurbishing the 427-year-old eatery.

 

Britain (London): Tate Gallery announces winner of Turner Prize for young artists in visual arts. Short-listed are Enrico David, Roger Hioms, Lucy Skaer and Richard Wright.

 

Italy (Milan): La Scala's 2009-10 season begins tonight with Bizet's Carmen, conducted by Daniel Barenboim.

 

Economic indicators 

 

U.S.: Ben Bernanke speaks at Economic Club of Washington. The central banker will defend the Fed's turf in supervising banks as Congress considers stripping the Fed of these and other regulatory powers. More ominously, Bernanke will also be defending the Fed's very independence, threatened by forces in Congress intent on subjecting the Fed's monetary policy decisions to Congressional "audits." Central bank independence has been a settled issue in N.A. since John Diefenbaker clashed with James Coyne. But the Fed so conspicuously screwed up in monitoring the Wall Street accumulation of unsustainable risk on Bernanke's watch since his appointment in 2006 that powerful Congressional and WH forces are lobbying for a new agency to monitor financial institutions that are "too big to fail." Bernanke is likely to argue that no central bank can help steer an economy if its link with the banking sector is broken. And that the proposed "audits" constitute a radical second-guessing of a central bank's primary role. And that the U.S. would risk putting itself at a competitive disadvantage to Europe, which has consolidated central-bank functions in the ECB, sans political oversight and the meddling that would inevitably result.

 

Business activity

 

Canada: Thierry Vandal, president, Hydro-Quebec, speaks to Saint John Board of Trade luncheon on proposed acquisition of NB Power. (12 p.m. at Delta Brunswick Hotel, Saint John.)

 

U.S.: Global Media and Communications conference, New York (to Dec. 9). Lots of talk about new media business models and getting consumers to pay for content. Throughout the week, several financing deals to raise $12 billion (U.S.) including funds to replace the World Trade Center.

 

Corporate reports

 

U.S.: Sun-Times Media Group Inc. (acquired out of bankruptcy protection October by investor syndicate led by Chicago financier James C. Tyree) Q1 results; Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. Q3 results.

 

 

TUESDAY

 

General

 

Canada: Canadian Parliamentary Inquiry into Antisemitism. Commons veterans affairs committee hears witnesses on Agent Orange compensation; "Widows on a Warpath" news conference on effects of Agent Orange at Gagetown, N.B., Parliament Hill, 10:30 a.m. Languages commissioner Graham Fraser at Commons languages committee hearing witnesses on braodcasting and services in French at 2010 Winter Olympics. Statscan 2008-09 correctional services key indicators, 8:30 a.m. Ontario Auditor General's report, presser 12:15 p.m. QP lighting ceremony at 6:55 p.m. Canadian Olympic curling trials (to Dec. 13). Randy Bachman and Fred Turner detail Bachman and Turner world tour, Winnipeg, 11 a.m. Dr. Perry Kendall, B.C.'s health officer, update on H1N1 pandemic (1-888-340-9655).

 

Economic indicators

 

Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, 9 a.m. EST. The Bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at the all-time low of 0.25%, and stick to its pledge to keep it there until the end of June. (Since 1994, BOC has typically waited until jobless rate has fallen a full 1% from its cyclical peak before raising rates that had been lowered to stimulate economy, which at current job-creation rate takes us well into 2011.) BOC is more guided by average growth of 25,000 jobs over past four months than surprisingly strong 79,100 for November announced last Friday given standard error in initial report. Carney will have some explaining to do on having projected 2% Q3 GDP growth that turned out to be a meagre 0.4%. Will likely cite drag of loonie's rising strength, though employment, household credit and domestic demand are strong. Statscan releases October building permits, 8:30 a.m. Commons industry committee hears witnesses on performance of services sector (continues tomorrow). Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reports November housing starts, which are expected to come in at annual rate of 156,000, down a bit from previous month's 157,300, but well ahead of dismal April nadir of 118,500.

 

U.S. (Washington): Barack Obama gives job-creation speech at the Brookings Institution. Will probably test-drive proposals for tax breaks for business hiring, and using some of the surplus TARP funds - estimated by Geithner last week at a whopping $200 billion (U.S.) - to boost job creation. Republican reax will be to insist the windfall be returned to the Treasury. Closely watched Business Roundtable quarterly report on CEOs' plans for 2010, a heads-up on Fortune 500 capital-spending and hiring prospects. U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing on mortgage foreclosure crisis.

 

India: November domestic vehicle sales reported by Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Industry sold 21.8% more vehicles in October than year previous, partly on strength of auto giant Tata Motors Ltd.'s hot-selling Nano minicars and commercial vehicles.

 

Japan: October leading indicators are expected to show reversal in sputtering recovery. Poor numbers all week, including downwardly revised Q3 GDP, will add to already significant pressure on Tokyo to jolt economy with a second stimulus package to avoid a double-dip recession.  

 

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia chief Stevens, only central banker besides his Norwegian peer to raise interest rates (three times in as many months) will justify doing so in a speech tonight about booming Aussie economy benefiting from robust resource investment, growing Asian demand, rapid population growth, and two consecutive months of increases in jobs.

 

Business activity

 

Canada: CanWest Global Communications appears for creditor protection hearing at Supreme Court, Toronto. CRTC begins formal public hearings on fee-for-carriage of local TV signals. Nancy Hughes Anthony, president of the Canadian Bankers Association speaks at the Economic Club of Canada in Ottawa: "Turning global respect today into long-term success tomorrow," Fairmont Chateau Laurier, 12:15 p.m. Gordon Nixon, CEO, Royal Bank of Canada, presents at 10:15 a.m. at Goldman Sachs' U.S. Financial Services Conference (www.rbc.com for webcast).

 

U.S.: Reliably controversial George Soros a speaker at Wall Street Journal Future of Finance conference, today and tomorrow. Barclays, J.P. Morgan Chase and Blackstone reps also presenting.

  

Corporate reports

 

Canada: Bank of Nova Scotia Q4 and FY09 results, 7:30 a.m., conference call 2 p.m. (1-800-814-4859).

 

U.S.: AutoZone Inc., Vail Resorts Inc. Q1 results; Brown-Forman Corp. (Jack Daniels) and H&R Block Inc. Q2 results; Kroger Co., Talbots Inc., Men's Wearhouse Inc. (Moores), Movado Group Inc., CKE Restaurants Inc. (Hardee's), Forest City Enterprises Inc. (developer; New York Times Building, et al) and SAIC Inc. (defense contractor) Q3 results; Toro Co. Q4 results. McDonald's Corp. November sales.  

 

Britain: Tesco PLC Q3 results.

 

 

WEDNESDAY

General

Canada: Darrell Dexter, Nova Scotia premier, state of province address (11:30 a.m.).

U.S.: NASA launches "sky scanner" (Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer) in California. Spacecraft will scan sky for nine months in search of hidden cosmic objects.

Britain: Alistair Darling, chancellor of the exchequer, tables pre-Budget report assessing economy and public finances, and outlining direction of government policy, in advance of his spring Budget.

Qatar (Doha): Gas Exporting Countries Forum. Ministers from world's leading natural-gas producers will be preoccupied with this year's slump in demand and prices, wreaking havoc of public finances of Alberta, which derives most of its resource royalties from gas, not oil.

Economic indicators

U.S.: Labor Department releases weekly jobless claims, 8:30 a.m. Commerce Department releases October international trade (impact of weak greenback on trade deficit) and November retail sales, 8:30 a.m., October business inventories, 10 a.m. U.S. Treasury releases federal budget for November, 2 p.m. (latest U.S. fiscal deficit figures).

Japan: Revised Q3 GDP will be a downward adjustment.

Business activity

Canada: William Downe, CEO, BMO Financial Group, speaks to Economic Club of Canada, Toronto, 11:45 a.m. at One King West Hotel, 1 King St. W. Astral Media annual meeting, TSX Broadcast Centre, Toronto, 2:30 p.m. Most spectacularly stupid merger in history finally will be unwound today as Time Warner spins off AOL (the former America Online Inc.) for about $3 billion (U.S.), a bit shy of AOL's $163-billion (U.S.) valuation when the "convergence" play was consummated in 2000. 

Britain (London): At the LSE, George Soros discusses with former Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt the latter's provocative new book, The Financial Crisis: How Europe Can Save the World. Today's British Fashion Awards may provide a lift to Stella McCartney's fading appeal, while celebrating 25th anniversary of British Fashion Council.

Italy (Milan): Placido Domingo marks 40th anniversary of his La Scala debut by performing role of Siegmund in complete first act of Die Walkure.

Corporate reports

Canada: Laurentian Bank Q4 earnings call, 2 p.m. (1-866-223-7781), Harry Winston Diamond Corp. Q4 conference call, 4 p.m. (800-259-0251, passcode 56737625);  

U.S.: Costco Wholesale Corp. Q1 results; Smithfield Foods Inc. (U.S. #1 pork processor), John Wiley & Sons Inc. Q2 results; Ciena Corp. (bidder on Nortel assets) Q4 results.   

 

THURSDAY

General

Canada: Condoleezza Rice, former U.S. secretary of state, speech in Halifax's Cunard Centre. (Details: Dave Howard, 403-620-4255). David Plouffe, Barack Obama campaign manager, speech at Economic Club of Canada, 7:45 p.m., InterContinental Hotel, Toronto, 225 Front St. W. Greg Selinger, Manitoba premier, state of the province speech to Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, 11:30 a.m., Winnipeg Convention Centre. International Human Rights Day marked by B.C. Human Rights Coalition and U.N. Association in Canada at Vancouver Community College, 250 W. Pender St., 5:30 p.m.

Eurozone: Herman Van Rompuy, first permanent European Union president, makes his debut appearance chairing two-day European Council meeting. Potential fireworks between Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy, the latter claiming that the post of EU commissioner for financial services having been secured by a French candidate is a victory for "French ideas about regulation." Sarky has the upper hand in this one since the former chancellor of the exchequer faces certain defeat in British general election next year. 

Norway (Oslo): Barack Obama accepts Nobel Peace Prize.

Economic indicators

Canada: Statscan October merchandise trade and December economic observer, 8:30 a.m. Consensus is trade deficit of about $700 million, down from October's $927 million deficit.

Brazil: Fiscal Q4 GDP report. The world's eighth-largest economy has grown at a brisk 2% in each of the previous two quarters. But Brazilian business sector - notorious for laggard capital investment - will have to spend more to get GDP back to the annual 5% required to meet Brasilia's employment targets. A big problem is sky-high interest rates for corporate borrowers, averaging 26.5% in October. Also, the real has soared 34% against the greenback this year, biggest advance among world's 16 major currencies and as much of an curse for exporters as Mark Carney says of the over-priced loonie.

Corporate reports

Canada: Empire Co. Ltd. (Sobeys) Q2 conference call, 3:30 p.m. (647-427-7450); Gildan Activewear, Q4 results and conference call, 8:30 a.m. (1-800-261-3417).

U.S.: Discounter Dollar General Q3 results.

 

FRIDAY

General

Canada: National Capital Commission's annual Christmas Lights Across Canada event, 5:30 p.m., Olympic Torch arrives 7 p.m., Parliament Hill.

Economic indicators

Canada: Statscan 3Q international investment position, October new housing price index, December social trends, all released at 8:30 a.m.

U.S.: Closely watched Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence survey. Consensus expects only slight improvement, but that was before wildly better-than-expected U.S. jobs report a week ago today, in which U.S. jobless rate slipped to 10% from 10.2% - the first decline in the unemployment rate since the U.S. recession began in December 2007. Also November retail sales data, which includes "Black Friday," which was underwhelming, and following "Cyber Monday." Analysts expect slight improvement over October.

Eurozone (London): Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, gives Economist's City lecture on the planned European Systemic Risk Board. Could be interesting if Trichet, world's second most powerful central banker, champions the stricter financial-sector controls that he, Brown, Sarkozy and Merkel favour over the more Wall Street-friendly reforms contemplated by Bernanke and Geithner.

India: October industrial production data. Should continue to rise on $130 billion (U.S.) New Delhi stimulus spending that has seen July-September GDP rise of 7.9%, second only to China's 8.9% for the period.

Corporate reports

U.S.: Fleetwood Enterprises Inc. (U.S. #1 motorhomes; in bankruptcy protection) Q4 results.

U.K.: HMV Group PLC interim Q3 results.

France: Dassault Aviation SA (Bombardier rival) Q3 results; Club Mediterranee SA FY09 results.

 

SATURDAY

General

Mexico: Thousands of Mexicans complete pilgrimage to the capital to celebrate feast of the Virgin of Guadalupe.

SUNDAY

General

Chile: First round of voting on a new president to replace term-limited Michelle Bachelet, first woman president of a Latin American country, with parliamentary vote today as well. A January run-off is likely between leading presidential candidates Eduardo Frei, a former Chilean president representing Bachelet's centre-left Concertacion coalition, and Sebastien Pinera, a billionaire financier on the centre-right ticket.

 

Sources: Canadian Press, Reuters, Bloomberg News, Economist, Financial Times (U.K.), Forbes.

 

 

 

 

Key events of the week ahead.

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

General

 

Canada: Governor-General Michaelle Jean state visit to Mexico yesterday and today, Costa Rica and Guatemala to follow (to Dec. 15). Dalton McGuinty continues India state visit (to Dec. 11).

 

U.S. (Washington): Barack Obama hosts Turkish prime minister Recep Yayyip Erdogan at WH. Official topics include Afghan war and endless Cypress conflict. Unofficial topics: Turkey's languishing bid to be first Islamic member of EU, thwarted by Turkey's human-rights record; and changed status of Turkey as reliable U.S. ally after it stunned Bush's Pentagon by forbidding an Iraqi invasion from the north in March 2003.

 

Denmark (Copenhagen): United Nations Climate Change Conference begins (to Dec. 18). Biggest climate meeting in history, with 15,000 participants from 192 nations, to negotiate curbs on greenhouse gas emissions and raise billions of dollars for poor nations in aid and green technology. China, India, some U.S. senators and others have made it clear a binding legal agreement is impossible. But a political one is, with a successor to Kyoto reached next year, one year ahead of Kyoto's expiry. Most world leaders will show up near end of the conference, which wraps up Dec. 18. 

 

France (Paris): La Tour d'Argent, the leading Paris restaurant, begins two-day auction of 18,000 bottles from its famous wine cellar, with the expected 1-million euros proceeds to restocking the cellar and refurbishing the 427-year-old eatery.

 

Britain (London): Tate Gallery announces winner of Turner Prize for young artists in visual arts. Short-listed are Enrico David, Roger Hioms, Lucy Skaer and Richard Wright.

 

Italy (Milan): La Scala's 2009-10 season begins tonight with Bizet's Carmen, conducted by Daniel Barenboim.

 

Economic indicators 

 

U.S.: Ben Bernanke speaks at Economic Club of Washington. The central banker will defend the Fed's turf in supervising banks as Congress considers stripping the Fed of these and other regulatory powers. More ominously, Bernanke will also be defending the Fed's very independence, threatened by forces in Congress intent on subjecting the Fed's monetary policy decisions to Congressional "audits." Central bank independence has been a settled issue in N.A. since John Diefenbaker clashed with James Coyne. But the Fed so conspicuously screwed up in monitoring the Wall Street accumulation of unsustainable risk on Bernanke's watch since his appointment in 2006 that powerful Congressional and WH forces are lobbying for a new agency to monitor financial institutions that are "too big to fail." Bernanke is likely to argue that no central bank can help steer an economy if its link with the banking sector is broken. And that the proposed "audits" constitute a radical second-guessing of a central bank's primary role. And that the U.S. would risk putting itself at a competitive disadvantage to Europe, which has consolidated central-bank functions in the ECB, sans political oversight and the meddling that would inevitably result.

 

Business activity

 

Canada: Thierry Vandal, president, Hydro-Quebec, speaks to Saint John Board of Trade luncheon on proposed acquisition of NB Power. (12 p.m. at Delta Brunswick Hotel, Saint John.)

 

U.S.: Global Media and Communications conference, New York (to Dec. 9). Lots of talk about new media business models and getting consumers to pay for content. Throughout the week, several financing deals to raise $12 billion (U.S.) including funds to replace the World Trade Center.

 

Corporate reports

 

U.S.: Sun-Times Media Group Inc. (acquired out of bankruptcy protection October by investor syndicate led by Chicago financier James C. Tyree) Q1 results; Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. Q3 results.

 

 

TUESDAY

 

General

 

Canada: Canadian Parliamentary Inquiry into Antisemitism. Commons veterans affairs committee hears witnesses on Agent Orange compensation; "Widows on a Warpath" news conference on effects of Agent Orange at Gagetown, N.B., Parliament Hill, 10:30 a.m. Languages commissioner Graham Fraser at Commons languages committee hearing witnesses on braodcasting and services in French at 2010 Winter Olympics. Statscan 2008-09 correctional services key indicators, 8:30 a.m. Ontario Auditor General's report, presser 12:15 p.m. QP lighting ceremony at 6:55 p.m. Canadian Olympic curling trials (to Dec. 13). Randy Bachman and Fred Turner detail Bachman and Turner world tour, Winnipeg, 11 a.m. Dr. Perry Kendall, B.C.'s health officer, update on H1N1 pandemic (1-888-340-9655).

 

Economic indicators

 

Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, 9 a.m. EST. The Bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at the all-time low of 0.25%, and stick to its pledge to keep it there until the end of June. (Since 1994, BOC has typically waited until jobless rate has fallen a full 1% from its cyclical peak before raising rates that had been lowered to stimulate economy, which at current job-creation rate takes us well into 2011.) BOC is more guided by average growth of 25,000 jobs over past four months than surprisingly strong 79,100 for November announced last Friday given standard error in initial report. Carney will have some explaining to do on having projected 2% Q3 GDP growth that turned out to be a meagre 0.4%. Will likely cite drag of loonie's rising strength, though employment, household credit and domestic demand are strong. Statscan releases October building permits, 8:30 a.m. Commons industry committee hears witnesses on performance of services sector (continues tomorrow). Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reports November housing starts, which are expected to come in at annual rate of 156,000, down a bit from previous month's 157,300, but well ahead of dismal April nadir of 118,500.

 

U.S. (Washington): Barack Obama gives job-creation speech at the Brookings Institution. Will probably test-drive proposals for tax breaks for business hiring, and using some of the surplus TARP funds - estimated by Geithner last week at a whopping $200 billion (U.S.) - to boost job creation. Republican reax will be to insist the windfall be returned to the Treasury. Closely watched Business Roundtable quarterly report on CEOs' plans for 2010, a heads-up on Fortune 500 capital-spending and hiring prospects. U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing on mortgage foreclosure crisis.

 

India: November domestic vehicle sales reported by Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Industry sold 21.8% more vehicles in October than year previous, partly on strength of auto giant Tata Motors Ltd.'s hot-selling Nano minicars and commercial vehicles.

 

Japan: October leading indicators are expected to show reversal in sputtering recovery. Poor numbers all week, including downwardly revised Q3 GDP, will add to already significant pressure on Tokyo to jolt economy with a second stimulus package to avoid a double-dip recession.  

 

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia chief Stevens, only central banker besides his Norwegian peer to raise interest rates (three times in as many months) will justify doing so in a speech tonight about booming Aussie economy benefiting from robust resource investment, growing Asian demand, rapid population growth, and two consecutive months of increases in jobs.

 

Business activity

 

Canada: CanWest Global Communications appears for creditor protection hearing at Supreme Court, Toronto. CRTC begins formal public hearings on fee-for-carriage of local TV signals. Nancy Hughes Anthony, president of the Canadian Bankers Association speaks at the Economic Club of Canada in Ottawa: "Turning global respect today into long-term success tomorrow," Fairmont Chateau Laurier, 12:15 p.m. Gordon Nixon, CEO, Royal Bank of Canada, presents at 10:15 a.m. at Goldman Sachs' U.S. Financial Services Conference (www.rbc.com for webcast).

 

U.S.: Reliably controversial George Soros a speaker at Wall Street Journal Future of Finance conference, today and tomorrow. Barclays, J.P. Morgan Chase and Blackstone reps also presenting.

  

Corporate reports

 

Canada: Bank of Nova Scotia Q4 and FY09 results, 7:30 a.m., conference call 2 p.m. (1-800-814-4859).

 

U.S.: AutoZone Inc., Vail Resorts Inc. Q1 results; Brown-Forman Corp. (Jack Daniels) and H&R Block Inc. Q2 results; Kroger Co., Talbots Inc., Men's Wearhouse Inc. (Moores), Movado Group Inc., CKE Restaurants Inc. (Hardee's), Forest City Enterprises Inc. (developer; New York Times Building, et al) and SAIC Inc. (defense contractor) Q3 results; Toro Co. Q4 results. McDonald's Corp. November sales.  

 

Britain: Tesco PLC Q3 results.

 

 

WEDNESDAY

General

Canada: Darrell Dexter, Nova Scotia premier, state of province address (11:30 a.m.).

U.S.: NASA launches "sky scanner" (Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer) in California. Spacecraft will scan sky for nine months in search of hidden cosmic objects.

Britain: Alistair Darling, chancellor of the exchequer, tables pre-Budget report assessing economy and public finances, and outlining direction of government policy, in advance of his spring Budget.

Qatar (Doha): Gas Exporting Countries Forum. Ministers from world's leading natural-gas producers will be preoccupied with this year's slump in demand and prices, wreaking havoc of public finances of Alberta, which derives most of its resource royalties from gas, not oil.

Economic indicators

U.S.: Labor Department releases weekly jobless claims, 8:30 a.m. Commerce Department releases October international trade (impact of weak greenback on trade deficit) and November retail sales, 8:30 a.m., October business inventories, 10 a.m. U.S. Treasury releases federal budget for November, 2 p.m. (latest U.S. fiscal deficit figures).

Japan: Revised Q3 GDP will be a downward adjustment.

Business activity

Canada: William Downe, CEO, BMO Financial Group, speaks to Economic Club of Canada, Toronto, 11:45 a.m. at One King West Hotel, 1 King St. W. Astral Media annual meeting, TSX Broadcast Centre, Toronto, 2:30 p.m. Most spectacularly stupid merger in history finally will be unwound today as Time Warner spins off AOL (the former America Online Inc.) for about $3 billion (U.S.), a bit shy of AOL's $163-billion (U.S.) valuation when the "convergence" play was consummated in 2000. 

Britain (London): At the LSE, George Soros discusses with former Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt the latter's provocative new book, The Financial Crisis: How Europe Can Save the World. Today's British Fashion Awards may provide a lift to Stella McCartney's fading appeal, while celebrating 25th anniversary of British Fashion Council.

Italy (Milan): Placido Domingo marks 40th anniversary of his La Scala debut by performing role of Siegmund in complete first act of Die Walkure.

Corporate reports

Canada: Laurentian Bank Q4 earnings call, 2 p.m. (1-866-223-7781), Harry Winston Diamond Corp. Q4 conference call, 4 p.m. (800-259-0251, passcode 56737625);  

U.S.: Costco Wholesale Corp. Q1 results; Smithfield Foods Inc. (U.S. #1 pork processor), John Wiley & Sons Inc. Q2 results; Ciena Corp. (bidder on Nortel assets) Q4 results.   

 

THURSDAY

General

Canada: Condoleezza Rice, former U.S. secretary of state, speech in Halifax's Cunard Centre. (Details: Dave Howard, 403-620-4255). David Plouffe, Barack Obama campaign manager, speech at Economic Club of Canada, 7:45 p.m., InterContinental Hotel, Toronto, 225 Front St. W. Greg Selinger, Manitoba premier, state of the province speech to Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, 11:30 a.m., Winnipeg Convention Centre. International Human Rights Day marked by B.C. Human Rights Coalition and U.N. Association in Canada at Vancouver Community College, 250 W. Pender St., 5:30 p.m.

Eurozone: Herman Van Rompuy, first permanent European Union president, makes his debut appearance chairing two-day European Council meeting. Potential fireworks between Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy, the latter claiming that the post of EU commissioner for financial services having been secured by a French candidate is a victory for "French ideas about regulation." Sarky has the upper hand in this one since the former chancellor of the exchequer faces certain defeat in British general election next year. 

Norway (Oslo): Barack Obama accepts Nobel Peace Prize.

Economic indicators

Canada: Statscan October merchandise trade and December economic observer, 8:30 a.m. Consensus is trade deficit of about $700 million, down from October's $927 million deficit.

Brazil: Fiscal Q4 GDP report. The world's eighth-largest economy has grown at a brisk 2% in each of the previous two quarters. But Brazilian business sector - notorious for laggard capital investment - will have to spend more to get GDP back to the annual 5% required to meet Brasilia's employment targets. A big problem is sky-high interest rates for corporate borrowers, averaging 26.5% in October. Also, the real has soared 34% against the greenback this year, biggest advance among world's 16 major currencies and as much of an curse for exporters as Mark Carney says of the over-priced loonie.

Corporate reports

Canada: Empire Co. Ltd. (Sobeys) Q2 conference call, 3:30 p.m. (647-427-7450); Gildan Activewear, Q4 results and conference call, 8:30 a.m. (1-800-261-3417).

U.S.: Discounter Dollar General Q3 results.

 

FRIDAY

General

Canada: National Capital Commission's annual Christmas Lights Across Canada event, 5:30 p.m., Olympic Torch arrives 7 p.m., Parliament Hill.

Economic indicators

Canada: Statscan 3Q international investment position, October new housing price index, December social trends, all released at 8:30 a.m.

U.S.: Closely watched Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence survey. Consensus expects only slight improvement, but that was before wildly better-than-expected U.S. jobs report a week ago today, in which U.S. jobless rate slipped to 10% from 10.2% - the first decline in the unemployment rate since the U.S. recession began in December 2007. Also November retail sales data, which includes "Black Friday," which was underwhelming, and following "Cyber Monday." Analysts expect slight improvement over October.

Eurozone (London): Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, gives Economist's City lecture on the planned European Systemic Risk Board. Could be interesting if Trichet, world's second most powerful central banker, champions the stricter financial-sector controls that he, Brown, Sarkozy and Merkel favour over the more Wall Street-friendly reforms contemplated by Bernanke and Geithner.

India: October industrial production data. Should continue to rise on $130 billion (U.S.) New Delhi stimulus spending that has seen July-September GDP rise of 7.9%, second only to China's 8.9% for the period.

Corporate reports

U.S.: Fleetwood Enterprises Inc. (U.S. #1 motorhomes; in bankruptcy protection) Q4 results.

U.K.: HMV Group PLC interim Q3 results.

France: Dassault Aviation SA (Bombardier rival) Q3 results; Club Mediterranee SA FY09 results.

 

SATURDAY

General

Mexico: Thousands of Mexicans complete pilgrimage to the capital to celebrate feast of the Virgin of Guadalupe.

SUNDAY

General

Chile: First round of voting on a new president to replace term-limited Michelle Bachelet, first woman president of a Latin American country, with parliamentary vote today as well. A January run-off is likely between leading presidential candidates Eduardo Frei, a former Chilean president representing Bachelet's centre-left Concertacion coalition, and Sebastien Pinera, a billionaire financier on the centre-right ticket.

 

Sources: Canadian Press, Reuters, Bloomberg News, Economist, Financial Times (U.K.), Forbes.

 

 

 

Key events of the week ahead.

 

 

MONDAY

 

 

General

 

Canada: Governor-General Michaelle Jean state visit to Mexico yesterday and today, Costa Rica and Guatemala to follow (to Dec. 15). Dalton McGuinty continues India state visit (to Dec. 11).

 

U.S. (Washington): Barack Obama hosts Turkish prime minister Recep Yayyip Erdogan at WH. Official topics include Afghan war and endless Cypress conflict. Unofficial topics: Turkey's languishing bid to be first Islamic member of EU, thwarted by Turkey's human-rights record; and changed status of Turkey as reliable U.S. ally after it stunned Bush's Pentagon by forbidding an Iraqi invasion from the north in March 2003.

 

Denmark (Copenhagen): United Nations Climate Change Conference begins (to Dec. 18). Biggest climate meeting in history, with 15,000 participants from 192 nations, to negotiate curbs on greenhouse gas emissions and raise billions of dollars for poor nations in aid and green technology. China, India, some U.S. senators and others have made it clear a binding legal agreement is impossible. But a political one is, with a successor to Kyoto reached next year, one year ahead of Kyoto's expiry. Most world leaders will show up near end of the conference, which wraps up Dec. 18. 

 

France (Paris): La Tour d'Argent, the leading Paris restaurant, begins two-day auction of 18,000 bottles from its famous wine cellar, with the expected 1-million euros proceeds to restocking the cellar and refurbishing the 427-year-old eatery.

 

Britain (London): Tate Gallery announces winner of Turner Prize for young artists in visual arts. Short-listed are Enrico David, Roger Hioms, Lucy Skaer and Richard Wright.

 

Italy (Milan): La Scala's 2009-10 season begins tonight with Bizet's Carmen, conducted by Daniel Barenboim.

 

Economic indicators 

 

U.S.: Ben Bernanke speaks at Economic Club of Washington. The central banker will defend the Fed's turf in supervising banks as Congress considers stripping the Fed of these and other regulatory powers. More ominously, Bernanke will also be defending the Fed's very independence, threatened by forces in Congress intent on subjecting the Fed's monetary policy decisions to Congressional "audits." Central bank independence has been a settled issue in N.A. since John Diefenbaker clashed with James Coyne. But the Fed so conspicuously screwed up in monitoring the Wall Street accumulation of unsustainable risk on Bernanke's watch since his appointment in 2006 that powerful Congressional and WH forces are lobbying for a new agency to monitor financial institutions that are "too big to fail." Bernanke is likely to argue that no central bank can help steer an economy if its link with the banking sector is broken. And that the proposed "audits" constitute a radical second-guessing of a central bank's primary role. And that the U.S. would risk putting itself at a competitive disadvantage to Europe, which has consolidated central-bank functions in the ECB, sans political oversight and the meddling that would inevitably result.

 

Business activity

 

Canada: Thierry Vandal, president, Hydro-Quebec, speaks to Saint John Board of Trade luncheon on proposed acquisition of NB Power. (12 p.m. at Delta Brunswick Hotel, Saint John.)

 

U.S.: Global Media and Communications conference, New York (to Dec. 9). Lots of talk about new media business models and getting consumers to pay for content. Throughout the week, several financing deals to raise $12 billion (U.S.) including funds to replace the World Trade Center.

 

Corporate reports

 

U.S.: Sun-Times Media Group Inc. (acquired out of bankruptcy protection October by investor syndicate led by Chicago financier James C. Tyree) Q1 results; Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc. Q3 results.

 

 

TUESDAY

 

General

 

Canada: Canadian Parliamentary Inquiry into Antisemitism. Commons veterans affairs committee hears witnesses on Agent Orange compensation; "Widows on a Warpath" news conference on effects of Agent Orange at Gagetown, N.B., Parliament Hill, 10:30 a.m. Languages commissioner Graham Fraser at Commons languages committee hearing witnesses on braodcasting and services in French at 2010 Winter Olympics. Statscan 2008-09 correctional services key indicators, 8:30 a.m. Ontario Auditor General's report, presser 12:15 p.m. QP lighting ceremony at 6:55 p.m. Canadian Olympic curling trials (to Dec. 13). Randy Bachman and Fred Turner detail Bachman and Turner world tour, Winnipeg, 11 a.m. Dr. Perry Kendall, B.C.'s health officer, update on H1N1 pandemic (1-888-340-9655).

 

Economic indicators

 

Canada: Bank of Canada interest rate announcement, 9 a.m. EST. The Bank is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate at the all-time low of 0.25%, and stick to its pledge to keep it there until the end of June. (Since 1994, BOC has typically waited until jobless rate has fallen a full 1% from its cyclical peak before raising rates that had been lowered to stimulate economy, which at current job-creation rate takes us well into 2011.) BOC is more guided by average growth of 25,000 jobs over past four months than surprisingly strong 79,100 for November announced last Friday given standard error in initial report. Carney will have some explaining to do on having projected 2% Q3 GDP growth that turned out to be a meagre 0.4%. Will likely cite drag of loonie's rising strength, though employment, household credit and domestic demand are strong. Statscan releases October building permits, 8:30 a.m. Commons industry committee hears witnesses on performance of services sector (continues tomorrow). Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. reports November housing starts, which are expected to come in at annual rate of 156,000, down a bit from previous month's 157,300, but well ahead of dismal April nadir of 118,500.

 

U.S. (Washington): Barack Obama gives job-creation speech at the Brookings Institution. Will probably test-drive proposals for tax breaks for business hiring, and using some of the surplus TARP funds - estimated by Geithner last week at a whopping $200 billion (U.S.) - to boost job creation. Republican reax will be to insist the windfall be returned to the Treasury. Closely watched Business Roundtable quarterly report on CEOs' plans for 2010, a heads-up on Fortune 500 capital-spending and hiring prospects. U.S. House Financial Services Committee hearing on mortgage foreclosure crisis.

 

India: November domestic vehicle sales reported by Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. Industry sold 21.8% more vehicles in October than year previous, partly on strength of auto giant Tata Motors Ltd.'s hot-selling Nano minicars and commercial vehicles.

 

Japan: October leading indicators are expected to show reversal in sputtering recovery. Poor numbers all week, including downwardly revised Q3 GDP, will add to already significant pressure on Tokyo to jolt economy with a second stimulus package to avoid a double-dip recession.  

 

Australia: Reserve Bank of Australia chief Stevens, only central banker besides his Norwegian peer to raise interest rates (three times in as many months) will justify doing so in a speech tonight about booming Aussie economy benefiting from robust resource investment, growing Asian demand, rapid population growth, and two consecutive months of increases in jobs.

 

Business activity

 

Canada: CanWest Global Communications appears for creditor protection hearing at Supreme Court, Toronto. CRTC begins formal public hearings on fee-for-carriage of local TV signals. Nancy Hughes Anthony, president of the Canadian Bankers Association speaks at the Economic Club of Canada in Ottawa: "Turning global respect today into long-term success tomorrow," Fairmont Chateau Laurier, 12:15 p.m. Gordon Nixon, CEO, Royal Bank of Canada, presents at 10:15 a.m. at Goldman Sachs' U.S. Financial Services Conference (www.rbc.com for webcast).

 

U.S.: Reliably controversial George Soros a speaker at Wall Street Journal Future of Finance conference, today and tomorrow. Barclays, J.P. Morgan Chase and Blackstone reps also presenting.

  

Corporate reports

 

Canada: Bank of Nova Scotia Q4 and FY09 results, 7:30 a.m., conference call 2 p.m. (1-800-814-4859).

 

U.S.: AutoZone Inc., Vail Resorts Inc. Q1 results; Brown-Forman Corp. (Jack Daniels) and H&R Block Inc. Q2 results; Kroger Co., Talbots Inc., Men's Wearhouse Inc. (Moores), Movado Group Inc., CKE Restaurants Inc. (Hardee's), Forest City Enterprises Inc. (developer; New York Times Building, et al) and SAIC Inc. (defense contractor) Q3 results; Toro Co. Q4 results. McDonald's Corp. November sales.  

 

Britain: Tesco PLC Q3 results.

 

 

WEDNESDAY

General

Canada: Darrell Dexter, Nova Scotia premier, state of province address (11:30 a.m.).

U.S.: NASA launches "sky scanner" (Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer) in California. Spacecraft will scan sky for nine months in search of hidden cosmic objects.

Britain: Alistair Darling, chancellor of the exchequer, tables pre-Budget report assessing economy and public finances, and outlining direction of government policy, in advance of his spring Budget.

Qatar (Doha): Gas Exporting Countries Forum. Ministers from world's leading natural-gas producers will be preoccupied with this year's slump in demand and prices, wreaking havoc of public finances of Alberta, which derives most of its resource royalties from gas, not oil.

Economic indicators

U.S.: Labor Department releases weekly jobless claims, 8:30 a.m. Commerce Department releases October international trade (impact of weak greenback on trade deficit) and November retail sales, 8:30 a.m., October business inventories, 10 a.m. U.S. Treasury releases federal budget for November, 2 p.m. (latest U.S. fiscal deficit figures).

Japan: Revised Q3 GDP will be a downward adjustment.

Business activity

Canada: William Downe, CEO, BMO Financial Group, speaks to Economic Club of Canada, Toronto, 11:45 a.m. at One King West Hotel, 1 King St. W. Astral Media annual meeting, TSX Broadcast Centre, Toronto, 2:30 p.m. Most spectacularly stupid merger in history finally will be unwound today as Time Warner spins off AOL (the former America Online Inc.) for about $3 billion (U.S.), a bit shy of AOL's $163-billion (U.S.) valuation when the "convergence" play was consummated in 2000. 

Britain (London): At the LSE, George Soros discusses with former Belgian prime minister Guy Verhofstadt the latter's provocative new book, The Financial Crisis: How Europe Can Save the World. Today's British Fashion Awards may provide a lift to Stella McCartney's fading appeal, while celebrating 25th anniversary of British Fashion Council.

Italy (Milan): Placido Domingo marks 40th anniversary of his La Scala debut by performing role of Siegmund in complete first act of Die Walkure.

Corporate reports

Canada: Laurentian Bank Q4 earnings call, 2 p.m. (1-866-223-7781), Harry Winston Diamond Corp. Q4 conference call, 4 p.m. (800-259-0251, passcode 56737625);  

U.S.: Costco Wholesale Corp. Q1 results; Smithfield Foods Inc. (U.S. #1 pork processor), John Wiley & Sons Inc. Q2 results; Ciena Corp. (bidder on Nortel assets) Q4 results.   

 

THURSDAY

General

Canada: Condoleezza Rice, former U.S. secretary of state, speech in Halifax's Cunard Centre. (Details: Dave Howard, 403-620-4255). David Plouffe, Barack Obama campaign manager, speech at Economic Club of Canada, 7:45 p.m., InterContinental Hotel, Toronto, 225 Front St. W. Greg Selinger, Manitoba premier, state of the province speech to Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce, 11:30 a.m., Winnipeg Convention Centre. International Human Rights Day marked by B.C. Human Rights Coalition and U.N. Association in Canada at Vancouver Community College, 250 W. Pender St., 5:30 p.m.

Eurozone: Herman Van Rompuy, first permanent European Union president, makes his debut appearance chairing two-day European Council meeting. Potential fireworks between Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy, the latter claiming that the post of EU commissioner for financial services having been secured by a French candidate is a victory for "French ideas about regulation." Sarky has the upper hand in this one since the former chancellor of the exchequer faces certain defeat in British general election next year. 

Norway (Oslo): Barack Obama accepts Nobel Peace Prize.

Economic indicators

Canada: Statscan October merchandise trade and December economic observer, 8:30 a.m. Consensus is trade deficit of about $700 million, down from October's $927 million deficit.

Brazil: Fiscal Q4 GDP report. The world's eighth-largest economy has grown at a brisk 2% in each of the previous two quarters. But Brazilian business sector - notorious for laggard capital investment - will have to spend more to get GDP back to the annual 5% required to meet Brasilia's employment targets. A big problem is sky-high interest rates for corporate borrowers, averaging 26.5% in October. Also, the real has soared 34% against the greenback this year, biggest advance among world's 16 major currencies and as much of an curse for exporters as Mark Carney says of the over-priced loonie.

Corporate reports

Canada: Empire Co. Ltd. (Sobeys) Q2 conference call, 3:30 p.m. (647-427-7450); Gildan Activewear, Q4 results and conference call, 8:30 a.m. (1-800-261-3417).

U.S.: Discounter Dollar General Q3 results.

 

FRIDAY

General

Canada: National Capital Commission's annual Christmas Lights Across Canada event, 5:30 p.m., Olympic Torch arrives 7 p.m., Parliament Hill.

Economic indicators

Canada: Statscan 3Q international investment position, October new housing price index, December social trends, all released at 8:30 a.m.

U.S.: Closely watched Reuters/University of Michigan consumer confidence survey. Consensus expects only slight improvement, but that was before wildly better-than-expected U.S. jobs report a week ago today, in which U.S. jobless rate slipped to 10% from 10.2% - the first decline in the unemployment rate since the U.S. recession began in December 2007. Also November retail sales data, which includes "Black Friday," which was underwhelming, and following "Cyber Monday." Analysts expect slight improvement over October.

Eurozone (London): Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank, gives Economist's City lecture on the planned European Systemic Risk Board. Could be interesting if Trichet, world's second most powerful central banker, champions the stricter financial-sector controls that he, Brown, Sarkozy and Merkel favour over the more Wall Street-friendly reforms contemplated by Bernanke and Geithner.

India: October industrial production data. Should continue to rise on $130 billion (U.S.) New Delhi stimulus spending that has seen July-September GDP rise of 7.9%, second only to China's 8.9% for the period.

Corporate reports

U.S.: Fleetwood Enterprises Inc. (U.S. #1 motorhomes; in bankruptcy protection) Q4 results.

U.K.: HMV Group PLC interim Q3 results.

France: Dassault Aviation SA (Bombardier rival) Q3 results; Club Mediterranee SA FY09 results.

 

SATURDAY

General

Mexico: Thousands of Mexicans complete pilgrimage to the capital to celebrate feast of the Virgin of Guadalupe.

SUNDAY

General

Chile: First round of voting on a new president to replace term-limited Michelle Bachelet, first woman president of a Latin American country, with parliamentary vote today as well. A January run-off is likely between leading presidential candidates Eduardo Frei, a former Chilean president representing Bachelet's centre-left Concertacion coalition, and Sebastien Pinera, a billionaire financier on the centre-right ticket.

 

Sources: Canadian Press, Reuters, Bloomberg News, Economist, Financial Times (U.K.), Forbes.

 

 

 

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[david baer]

Having been a part of the Online Universal Work Marketing team for 4 months now, I’m thankful for my fellow team members who have patiently shown me the ropes along the way and made me feel welcome

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