"Middle East" turmoil?

That's how it's almost universally, described. Let's just remember that the two regime changes so far have occurred in North Africa. And the next mostly likely one will be there, too.

Middle East in Turmoil: Special Coverage

Above is WaPo's standing headline for its repository of region-related reports.

But my map shows Tunisia, Egypt and Libya to be in North Africa. Indeed, the most common short-hand descriptive for Egypt is "most populous country in Africa."

 
Regime change, recent or pending, has been limited to the North African countries of Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.

To be sure, unrest has been reported in every Mideast country. But nowhere in that region does a regime appear threatened - save perhaps Yemen, which has suffered a Somalia-like lawless status for years. The big Mideast players, the ones with geopolitical clout - Saudi, Iran, Syria, Kuwait, UAE - are relatively or very quiet.

There is more unrest in Morocco than Iraq. Iraq is a prime candidate, one would think, for radical change in this uncertain hour. Yet the Baghdad protest Friday was, by post-2003 Iraqi standards, a minor event.   

Of course, it's early days (weeks). But in referring to upheaval in the region, we at least should be making clear that it's North Africa and the Middle East where the status quo appears fragile. And maybe wondering why it's more fragile - at least so far - in North Africa than, say, among ever-restless Palestinians or the swelling dissident movement in Iran.

Surely now would seem the time for the long-awaited uprising in Tehran. Yet I think waiting on that is as futile a hope as change in Pyongyang. It will come, but for now those regimes we find most odious and a global threat appear militarily secure. The blessings of liberty in this round of revolutionary change will, it seems likely, be limited to citizens of the weakest regimes (Mubarak ruled for 30 years, Gadhafi for 42), and not extend to the most powerful ones.

Notice, too, that Egypt and Libya, after the latter made amends, finally, with the U.S. in the 2000s, were U.S. allies. The regime change America and the world would most like to see in the region - in Tehran and Damascus, each exporters of terrorists mostly targeting Israel - appears to remain on indefinite hold.

I wish it weren't so, and I hope the uprisings do spur regime change in the Mideast. I'm just not betting on it.

 

Comments

[Wascally Wabbit]

Wise words David - and I largely agree with you.
I noted a very interesting article written by Saudi Prince Alweed yesterday.
Fascinating. A Saudi Prince - a grandson of King Saud - speaks out on the need for radical changes in government in the Middle East - concedes that recent steps taken by King Abdullah are a step in the right direction - but are only the beginnings of a longer journey - http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/25/opinion/25alsaud.html
At least one of the steps is to hand out $30 Billion to Saudi citizens (when I lived there - the population was estimated to be 3 million) - so a small step maybe - but it MIGHT keep things quiet for a while.

[Darwin O'Connor]

I good description of the area effected is the Arab world which covers all the countries, except Iran.

The Star is called the events the "Arab Awakening" It's more or less accurate and it has alteration. Isn't that the only requirements for a good headline?

"The blessings of liberty in this round of revolutionary change will, it seems likely, be limited to citizens of the weakest regimes (Mubarak ruled for 30 years, Gadhafi for 42), and not extend to the most powerful ones."

I don't think people where calling Mubarak a weak regime before he fell.

According to Gwynne Dyer the reason this is happening now is the people have realized that the United States won't protect the regimes, which is why it is effecting US allies more.

[Lorne Marr]

I don't think the revolution in the Arab world will influence the people of China or North Korea since the Internet regulation in both these countries has been strengthened now and most of the people are not provided with relevant information.

[dolive]

Yes, and this is happening across the Middle East as well, notably in Saudi, Syria and Iran, which have lots of experience with it. But then, as we learned in the BlackBerry dustup a few months ago, so does New Delhi. The power of the state is awesome, and what the grassroots dissidents have already achieved in Tunisia and Egypt is all the more striking for that.