Race closes up.

I'd like to say the race is closing up already, but that would suggest it'll stay close, or even tighten further. Way too early for that.

What does matter, in today's Nanos Research numbers, sponsored by CTV/G&M, is that the Grits suddenly are viable. They now trail the Tories by just 6.4%, compared with a yawning 11% deficit in Nanos' previous survey.

Kinsella is giddy, having predicted a race-tightening sooner than later, and his four reasons for that are worth noting.

But - big but - in this poll the Tories continue to grow their support, up from 37.6 to 39.1 over the past three consecutive Nanos surveys. Recall that direction is what matters.

The Grits also are up in those three most recent Nanos surveys, from 26.2% to 32.7%. But the Tories have just inched into majority territory, by Nanos count. Even if they plateau at their current 39.1%, the Grits will have to grow a lot more to match or eclipse them. They can get some of that additional support from the NDP, but that well isn't deep. What Iggy needs to do is cut into Bloc and Tory support in Quebec, and Tory seats in Southern Ontario.

But the Grits' numbers in Quebec, as we've noted, are just dreadful. Grits are the walking dead in Quebec. There might be negative migration from the deeply unpopular Grit premier Jean Charest.
Indeed, that might also be a factor in Ontario, where Liberal Premier McGuinty's been in poor popular regard for a year.

The NDP takes a big hit in this poll, down 4 points. But keep in mind that Layton has far fewer seats to defend, and ample resources with which to do so. Which makes the strategic Grit raid on NDP seats that much tougher.

Which brings us ThreeHundredEight.com's current projection (below), a cure for euphoria in the Grit camp. As of today, 308.com has the Tories picking up 7 seats, to 150; the Grits losing 4 seats, to 73; the Bloc gaining an impressive 5 seats, to 52; and the NDP dropping three seats, to 33.

Yet that's sobering for the Tories, too, since the total of projected opposition seats is now 158, to just 150 Tory seats. Remember too that if Bloc gains come at Liberal expense (that would mostly be on the island of Montreal), and Grit pick-ups elsewhere come at NDP expense, the total opposition count remains roughly the same - that is, higher than the Tory count.

Which keeps coalition on the table. Absent a Tory surge or Grit super-surge, another Harper minority or an Iggy-led coalition are still the likeliest outcomes.

 

 

 

 

Comments

[Rob]

I pray their is no Iggy lead coalition. It could very well end this country.
Rex Murpy spoke on the coaltion a couple of years ago. He understands the implications.

[Wascally Wabbit]

Rex Murphy only understands the sound of his own voice. Most listeners fall asleep in a hypnotic trance after 30 seconds...ZZZzzzz!
Iggy is a fool - playing both a Hail Mary game and shooting while having his head in the sand. He daren't tell his sycophantic supporters he has long since given up a majority - and to maintain the pretence, he does a St. Peter imitation and denies the obvious.
What is unfolding is a fascinating series of unintended consequences. Harper is about to self destruct - but since his core will never desert - he will still win seats somewhere over the 100 baseline. Iggy, rising above the lowest expectations that he is starting from, will scrape close to 100 - maybe just over - while the NDP (and possibly the Greens) will together total up to 30 or so seats. This if course leaves Iggy with the option of making some kind of deal with Jack - and frankly - I cannot see Jack making any deal which does not involve Cabinet seats for Dippers. Sounds like a coalition to me! Even then, anyone forming a government will have to have the tacit support of Gilles - who appears to hold all the cards!

[Rob]

You don't get it Wabbit. You refuse to, I think.
It would take a little listening to understand or perhaps reading. Maybe travel to Western Canada and speak with people, that would also work.
This coalition could really lead to the end for Canada.

[Darwin O'Connor]

"This coalition could really lead to the end for Canada. "

I don't see why you say that.

I can see how a Harper majority could lead to the end for Canada. He already suspended democracy for a few months in 2008-2009. He presided over mass arrests of political protesters. He already dismissed Quebec's elected representatives as unworthy of participation in government.

[Ron]

Darwin staed, "I don't see why you say that."

MY RESPONSE:
It would take a little listening to understand or perhaps reading. Maybe travel to Western Canada and speak with people, that would also work.
Also, look back in the news archives of a couple years ago for stories about the coalition from Rex Murphy. He unsderstands perfectly.

[Darwin O'Connor]

I understand that the government maintaining confidence of the House is fundamental to our democracy and I've read the Charter of Rights.

I'd rather debate this with you, Ron, but since you seem unwilling or unable, I'll debate with Rex Murphy. I found this: http://www.11thhouraction.com/blogs/sweetbomb/rex-murphy-canadian-political-parties-coalition-dumb-know

Rex didn't like seeing Stephane Dion as Prime Minister. While the Liberals had done poor in the election under him, he still got enough seats to be the leader of the opposition. There wasn't time to wait for the Liberals to sort out the leadership problems and as leader of the largest party in the coalition it was his place to be Prime Minister under those circumstances. People object to the Bloc being involved in the coalition but they never explain the mechanism by which their involvement would "destroy Canada". I can see how treating separatist like pariahs would make them want to leave, but getting them involved in the federal government should make them appreciate it more.

[Rob]

You write, "Rex didn't like seeing Stephane Dion as Prime Minister.....etc"
I think you know this is not what I'm talking about.
I am talking about the "why" of the coalition being a death blow for Canada.
At the time the percentage of Western Canadians against the coalition was extremely high. They saw this as putting a party that won 77 seats in charge of the country as a highjacking of democracy. Is this the way the Liberals treat us and treat democracy, they thought? They saw it as such a fundamental injustice and a disgarding of their votes.
I hate to see what would happen if this farce (the coalition) ever becomes reality; it could be the death-blow for this country.

[Darwin O'Connor]

Actually it was having parties that won 163 seats working together to run the country rather then a party that won 143 seats.

It's important to know that to govern it is the majority of seats in the House that country, not the party with the most seats.

It should be easier for the party with the most seats to govern, but the Conservatives don't seem to work well with others.

[Rob]

(Mr. Harper will not let the Bloc have any say in the running of this country, Mr. Ignatieff and Mr. Layton have no problem with this.)
BUT again to focus on my point.
You do not understand or won't listen. You are not addressing my point.
What is my point? Can you state it? Do you understand?

[dolive]

Coalitions are of course the norm in Europe, currently in power our G-7 peers Britain and Germany. They are commonplace throughout the democratic world, from Israel to Japan.
Consistently, two-thirds of Canadians choose a party other than the one Mr. Harper leads. That amounts to a tyranny of the minority.
There are no "Western Canadians." Winnipeg is a centralist, federalist town that looks east a little more than west. Calgary is more inclined to U.S.-style raw capitalism than any other place in the West or the country. Edmonton is a pocket of near-socialism. The Lower Mainland and the B.C. Interior might as well be on different planets in their culture.
The entire country is like this, and so are most, certainly Britain, France and Germany. Ontario you could divide five ways and still not have culturally cohesive parts, just regions with more in common than with any others. Cape Bretoners are a different breed from the rest of the province, and there's St. John - or rather, the richies on Water Street - and the rest of that enormous province.
To presume to know what "the country" wants is high vanity. Darwin has read the founding documents, I confess only to an acquaintance with some. It's true, as it is in the "Mother of all Parliaments" on the Thames: a government is formed by like-minded parliamentarians constituting a majority. Those who so join may belong to the same party or to several, as is the everyday business of the Knesset, since, I think, I was born.
So a coalition won't be the death of anything, just as the failure of Meech Lake wasn't, or as the passage of the FTA and successor NAFTA have not been.
Chill out. There are real options for the future to be discussed in the campaign, and coalition talk is a distraction.

[Darwin O'Connor]

Rob, from what I understand the problem is that after decades of Western alienation they finally got the government that represents them only to see it threatened with removal by a tyrannical majority with a mechanism they didn't understand (and Harper deliberately obfuscated) by forces they instinctively fear (without knowing exactly why). If it happens again, the West will separate (or at least collect the generous benefits that come with threatening to separate).

The coalition talk is important.

[Rob]

Gee Darwin, you don't really take this seriously.
Still a dismissive tone in your response.
Generous benefits? Look at the last 50 years. Who has provided the benefits and who has collected them. The West has provided and the rest of Canada has received them.
The West "understands" the mechanism, plenty well, Mr. Ontario.
And they know the "forces" and the reason these forces should be feared too well.
You sound like an english Canadian talking to (and I do mean to, not with) a Quebecer in the 40s, 50s and 60s. No respect, no listening, no inclusion. When english Canada finally "got it", Rene was the premier.
The coalition is a terrible thing and it can end Canada.
Mr. Olive, I lived in Alberta through the coalition attempt; you have no idea how close a coalition could take us to the brink or beyond.

[Darwin O'Connor]

Rob, you don't see to explaining yourself very well. You've made 6 comments in this thread and the only one you come close to explaining is the on at 3:58 (EDT). The brink of what? The brink of the start of a serious western separatist movement?

[Rob]

Darwin,a few questions to answer your question!
Have you followed the western press and the eastern press (that pay attention-cue Rex Murphy) during the coalition attempt? Do you know someone from western Canada and did you speak to them during this coalition grab-for-power? Do you remember the rallies with thousands of people in western Canada at that time?
With your last response I think the answers would be...no.

[Darwin O'Connor]

1. I mostly read the Toronto Star, so I guess that would be no. Care to enlighten me?

2. I talk to myself a lot. I grew up in Pinawa, Manitoba. It's you typical western town filled with nuclear researchers and geologists. I was influenced by my father who was a life long NDP activist and ran for them federally and provincially.

3. Yes. There where rallies with thousands of people in support of the coalition in eastern Canada.

[Rob]

I don't think it was coverered or shown in Eastern Canada about the sentiment and more importantly the depth of that sentiment in Western Canada; save Rex Murphy.
Look at the numbers that attended the Western v. Eastern rallies. Not even close Darwin.
Eastern Canada is playin' with fire if they back the coalition; in terms of Canada remaining a country.

[Darwin O'Connor]

There are understandable reasons for people to be angry at the coalition, like disappointment their party will lose power, fear of the separatists and misunderstanding about how our democratic system works. It's just those reasons are largely based on emotional reactions and they don't stand up to scrutiny. If the situation where revised I'm sure many easterners would react the same way.

In conclusion, History Bites: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dYsVNDvfulk