NDP surge keeps rolling along.

 

LATEST POLLS HAVE NDP SOLIDLY IN OFFICIAL OPPOSITION TERRITORY.

TORY INSIDERS SAY MAJORITY HAS SLIPPED FROM THEIR GRASP.

BLOQUISTES ENDORSE LAYTON.

TRADITIONALLY GRIT TORONTO STAR ENDORSES LAYTON.

 
(CP)

1. Latest Angus Reid poll, in today's Star, has Tories just four points ahead of the Dippers, at 37% to 33% nationally, with Liberals dropping into the teens (19%). Confirms yesterday's Ipsos-Reid poll, with a five-point gap nationally between CPC and NDP, at 38% and 33% respectively, with Grits trailing at 18%.

In Quebec, the two polls have NDP leading, with 42% and 45%, respectively; and the BQ second, at 26% in both polls. Angus Reid has Grits third (16%) and Tories trailing, at 13%. Ipsos Reid has the reverse, Tories (15%) just ahead of Liberals (13%).

In battleground Ontario, Angus Reid has Tories maintaining strong, though slipping, lead, at 41%; NDP second, at 27%; Grits at 26%; Greens at 5%. Ipsos Reid similarly has Tories strongly ahead, at 40%, but much better numbers for Dippers (34%), and worse placing for Liberals (21%).

Update

Here's the latest Nanos Research's three-day rolling poll: Tories, 38%; NDP, 29.6%; Grits, 23.3%; BQ, 5.2%; and Greens, 3.1% In Quebec, Nanos also has the Dippers far ahead, at 39% (these three polls have Quebec NDP support almost identical, at 39%-41%); BQ at 22.2%; Liberals at 19.1%; and Tories at 16.3%. Nanos latest numbers have Ontario a three-way tie, when accounting for the usual margin for error: Tories, 35.3%; Grits, 31.7% and NDP, 28.5%.

 
(CP)

2. Top Team Harper officals tell Star they can't win the 23 additional seats in Ontario needed to secure a majority, and cover expected Tory losses in B.C. and Quebec. An ironic outcome of the Tories determined - and successful - anti-Iggy campaigns has been to drive Grit vote into Layton's camp, not Harper's.

"Harper dusts up Iggy for a year," a Tory source says, referring to anti-Grit TV ad campaigns soon after Ignatieff took the Grit leadership and a second wave of demonizing TV portrayals beginning in December, "but the benefactor of the collapsing Liberal vote is not Harper, it's Jack."

3. In an open letter to La Presse, biggest-circulation Quebec daily, BQ operatives Maxime Bellerose and Benoit Demuy say BQ is past its sell-by date in advancing the separatist cause in Ottawa. Pending a Quebec City initiative to put Canada through a third gruelling referendum on sovereignty - sooner than later, as the avowedly separatist Parti Quebcois is poised to oust a deeply unpopular Liberal regime led by Jean Charest - it's best for now to park our votes with the party that best represents Quebec's social-democratic sentiment.

"It would be a shame if Quebecers did not take advantage of this opportunity to send to Ottawa MPs who loudly and proudly share Quebec's values of justice and cooperation," the turncoats write. 

4. I just saw a pig fly past my front-room picture window. My paper, routinely described as a Liberal Party house organ, has today endorsed Layton for PM:

"Ignatieff has spent the past few days lamenting the loss of the centre ground of Canadian politics and attacking the NDP as spendthrifts and "boy scouts" [on a tragically wrong Afghan mission the NDP has always opposed.] His party's collapse in Quebec raises the question of whether it can truly be considered a national force at this point...The Liberals have not made a persuasive case for themselves as an alternative in 2011... Voters who believe Canada should aspire to something greater than the crabbed, narrow vision offered by the Harper Conservatives should look to Jack Layton and the New Democrats on Monday."

 

 

Comments

[Wascally Wabbit]

The pigs fly bit - I was a little gob-smacked myself when I read that - but I agree totally.
The "sky is falling" messages are coming from the Liberal camp as much as the Harper one right now - which is really sad.
What is even worse is - there are rumbling within the right wing of the Liberal party that - depending upon the numbers - they will try to persuade Iggy to leap into bed with Harper. That would be the final nail in not just Iggy's - but this version - maybe any version - of the once great and respected Liberal party. I suspect wiser minds will prevail on that one - but it will be bloody in the back rooms.
I commented to a close friend and adviser of Bob Rae's yesterday - Bob posting a photo of him and Roy Romanow on his FB page yesterday was either very naive and without thinking through the optics - OR it was sending a clear message to those - like me - who worry the folks who took the Liberal party so far right that it currently appears closer to the Harper version of conservatism than it does to the Layton version of Dippism - don't try going to Harper because you will split the party irrevocably and might even force a merger!
But - the people have spoken - so I think wise politicians will (or at leas should) respect their decision!

[Darwin O'Connor]

Iggy leaped into bed with the Conservatives as soon as he became leader and has only occasionally left. What would be big deal if he returned? His coalition promise all but garenteed that, anyway.

It doesn't matter that much. If his party ends up third he will have to resign on election night and the the Liberals can fight it out the old fashion way, a messy backstabbing leadership campaign.

[Rob]

Jack Layton has lived off the Government his entire adult life. He lived in subsidized housing in TO when both he and Olivia were making very good salaries (from the government payroll).
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The NDP will be great for folks that don't work but terrible for those that do work.
The NDP will raise taxes on everything. They will drive business out of Canada.
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The NDP will bring in a Cap & Trade system to mostly penalize the Oil Sands. This Cap & Trade system will hurt the industry and kill jobs.
The Cap and Trade system will be another transfer payment system from Alberta to Ottawa.
The NDP plan is BS because a carbon molecule is a carbom molecule if it comes from Western Canada or a car in TO. The "tax" on carbon should be on a per molecule basis, that is fair.
HOWEVER, I do warn TO & Eastern Canada that a Cap & Trade system that targets Alberta will not stand. Danielle Smith or Ted Morton will take Alberta OUT of Canada. Alberta won't whine like Quebec and blackmail Canada. It will just leave. .
SO watch out NDP, you could bring on the end of this country.
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In terms of the entire country, who will suffer under the NDP? The working person. Fewer jobs and more taxes.
(P.S. Is my government cheque here yet?)
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Mr. Harper cares and works for the whole country. Vote for Harper.

[johnnyk]

Iggy has shown some grace and class (some, not totally) in this campaign as he Libs go down the rabbit hole. Are we witnessing the first time in his life that he is failing at something? We all fail at something sooner or later but rarely on the national stage under full scrutiny. En tout cas, he is now gone.

[EM]

@Rob
"Jack Layton has lived off the Government his entire adult life. He lived in subsidized housing in TO when both he and Olivia were making very good salaries (from the government payroll).
"

You are just not that bright, huh. He paid full price in a building that was 2/3 subsidized pricing. He actually paid extra, to help support the subsidized units above and beyond the full price. A quick google would find reality for you.

[Rob]

It was not fair market price EM; be honest.
$800 a month!
The Laytons only paid extra in March of 1990! March of 1990. The Laytons lived in the Co-op since 1985. The story broke/was publicized in June of 1990. They had 5 years of rent at below market value and only paid extra just before the story was released to the public. They had 5 years to pay "extra" but they did not.
They had a great rental price from government funded housing; much less than market conditions.
But that's Jack: Let the working people pay your rent.
A Socialist would be proud to have others pay their way.
AND he has lived of the taxes of other his entire adult life. Sorry...for the truth.
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The damage Jack Layton will do to Canada is beyond anything we have ever seen. Remember Bob Rae in Ontario but now it will be across the whole country.