Uh, Prime Minister, we have a slight problem in the former capital of New France.

Two more campaign verities that may bite the dust.

1. The Tories were expected to handily retain their 10 seats in the Quebec City region. Uh, no.

2. And battleground Ontario is key to blocking a Tory majority. We'll see.

Here's seat-projector Eric Grenier at 308.com:  

Throughout the Quebec City region, [polling firm] CROP found the New Democrats to be extremely competitive. They are leading in Beauport - Limoilou, Charlesbourg - Haute-Saint-Charles, Louis-Hébert, and Portneuf - Jacques-Cartier, while being tied or closely trailing in Louis-Saint-Laurent and Québec. In other words, the NDP could sweep Quebec City, this after support that ran in the 9% to 13% range in the 2008 election. The New Democrats could, depending on what happens elsewhere, block a Conservative majority in Quebec City of all places. [Emphasis added.]

The Dippers currently hold one (1) seat in la belle province - that of a Grit-turned-Dipper in Montreal. In the CCF/NDP's 79-year history, it has never held more than one seat in Quebec. It now appears that at least five seats in 99% francophone Quebec City alone are within its grasp. 

 

 

 

Comments

[Wascally Wabbit]

You may have mentioned it casually elsewhere - but what no-one has yet really commented on the fundamental fact that - if this dramatic end plays out as it is appearing today - is that the NDP will do singlehanded - what neither Liberals nor Conservatives have been able to do in the last 2 decades - bring Quebecers back into a federalist party fold.
It pulls the rug from under Stephen Harper's now boring meme that any governance deal with the Bloc is a deal with the devil (heck - depending upon the numbers - he may just try and cut some sort of deal with the Bloc - if it were to give him a majority "in coalition" and keep him in government).
After all - he has a big incentive to make such desperate deals - only he knows what "new management" may find under the rugs - not just at 24 Sussex - but right across what is left of his government!

[Darwin O'Connor]

With the commanding lead the NDP has in the polls, they'll be getting 40 or 50 seats in Quebec, ground war or no ground war.

The Bloc very will may not have enough seats for Harper to do a deal.