For what it's worth...
...I'll toss my hat in the ring with a seat projection later today. Not sure why, since I've not done so before. A case of strength of one's convictions, I guess. Which with EB readers seems called for since I'm guessing you're running the numbers, so what lets me off the hook?
It's a mug's game, of course, especially in this "wild card, possibly the most bizarre, unstable, upside-down election since Confederation," as pollster Conrad Winn of Compas Inc. calls it.
In the meantime, I'm in the midst today of a through humbling from reading and re-reading your comments with their correctives. Common sense tells me to do that before commiting to the folly of a seat projection.
Democracy will win, I'm sure of that. I expect a reversal tomorrow of the steadily and troubling decline in turnout we've seen in recent years. And tomorrow, from coast to coast, Elections Canada will administer the voting process in the same way in Nanaimo as in Lindsay, Ont. as in Chicoutimi and Yarmouth. Same voting hours, same eligibility to vote, same ballot design, same repository for ballots. We take this for granted. Four our friends to the south, those things differ not only from state to state but county to county. (There are 99 counties in Iowa.)
So take a bow for something else we do really well here.
OK - so - I'll share a limb with you David.
CPC - 120 +/- 5
NDP - 100 +/- 5
LIB - 56 +/- 5
Bloc - 30 +/- 5
GRN - 1 +/- 1
IND - 1 +/- 1
I base this on the fact that - if one excepts outliers and very early polls - CPC has been struggling to rise above 38% - which I think is about 0.5% above their actual percentage in 2008. Most polls in the last few days are showing them below 35% down to 32% - which to me means they will lose 20-25 marginal seats. the up side for the NDP is that a lot of folks who did not vote last time are clearly energized - and I have to think those EXTRA voters will be popping up in ridings where NDP candidates have been second or third in previous elections - and the surge will benefit them - especially where the other two parties split the balance of the vote.
The signs are that Elizabeth May could beat Gary Lunn in Saanich - which will be yet another loss in the CPC column.
On the other hand - the one independent Conservative has a chance of being re-elected - and if he does - could be a voting bonus to Mr. Harper.
What these numbers offer are an absolute majority (just) if the NDP and Libs agree to work together. Ms. May - if elected - would tend to vote with them rather than against
Also means that - even if Mr. Harper was to try and cut a deal with Duceppe - together they would not be able for form a large enough block to keep legislation from the government from passing - BUT - it would mean that for critical votes - the government side would have to have many if not all of their members in the House at all key times
Posted by: Wascally Wabbit | 05/01/2011 at 12:39 PM
Anyone who works for a living will regret the day the NDP takes control.
The NDP will severly harm business in Canada; that will lead to fewer jobs.
Also, people that work for a living (the tax payers), will pay a lot more tax. The promises Jack Layton makes have to be paid, somehow. The people that work will pay for them. Taxes and fees and fewer jobs to pay those taxes and fees.
People are now realizing the devastion that Layton will bring. Only a vote for Mr. Harper can stop the second coming of a "national' Bob Rae style disaster government.
I hope all my fellow Canadians vote.
Posted by: Rob | 05/01/2011 at 01:17 PM
The more the merrier Rob.
If the votes get up into the Mid-70% - then it will be even clearer that the vast majority of Canadians don't trust your "Mr. Harper" and his team!
Posted by: Wascally Wabbit | 05/01/2011 at 02:03 PM
"The more the merrier Rob".......
I do hope everybody votes. We are so lucky to live in a country where we can vote.
I do trust that Mr. Layton will significantly increase our taxes. I do trust he will harm business and drive some out of the country. I do believe that companies will hire fewer people and lay people off.
If you work for a living, the NDP will harm you most of all.
Posted by: Rob | 05/01/2011 at 02:12 PM