An informed view of Dion and a fall election - well, mine anyway

Richard Lautens/Toronto Star

Dion on the leadership campaign trail in 2006

In journalism, we have two definitions for our work: news and new news. You get it. When you don't have a lot of the latter, you spin the former like a crazy person, and that's what we're getting on the prospects of a fall election as we sink deeper into the primordial muck of the pre-Olympic silly season. The only bona fide political new news so far is the Sept. 8 date of three upcoming by-elections.

Political gossip — er, analysis — has centered around a couple of themes, one being that Stephen Harper was afraid of going to the polls against Stéphane Dion if the Liberals were surging in the polls and would delay Parliament to avoid it. Sure thing. Sounds to me like Harper's style. Plus, we now know there will be no Throne Speech.

The next idea, this one with some legs because it's Dion, posits the reverse: the prospect of the mandatory leadership review weighs so heavily on Dion's mind, it will be the key factor in determining his choice of "the good moment" in which to bring the Conservatives down. He will be too scared to go in the fall with a review looming the next spring, unless the party is sky-high in the polls. Without rehashing the whole thing, the bottom line of that scenario has Dion doing anything to avoid the dread review on the heels of a losing campaign and, therefore, will delay triggering an election until 2009, or just wait it out until Harper's prescribed date in the fall of that year. Even if he bungles the campaign, says the theory, he should have more breathing room before the next leadership review in which to try and rally support.

"Hah!" snorted a Dion strategist loudly, before laughing some more, when I asked him if that's how the leader was thinking. "That's the last thing Dion would take into consideration," he proclaimed, and I think he's right. Having spent a fair amount of time interviewing Dion and researching his life to write a biography last year, I agree. I'm not arguing it's necessarily the politically smart thing to do; some may even call it naive not to factor in the leadership review. But he won't, I'm sure of it. It's just not how the guy thinks. He's not particularly cunning about his personal interests. Look at his bull-in-the-china-shop history in Canadian politics, a period during which he succeeded by sheer grit and the most bizarre circumstances. Inspector Clouseau-on-the-Rideau.

When has he calculated the risk to himself? Jamais. He was the Péquiste in the orthodox federalist household, the lone Canadian defender during the 1995 Quebec referendum, the aloof salesman for unity in a federal Quebec caucus braying for his head and the wispy moderator who struggled in 2005 to save the Kyoto Protocol against a heavy-duty American lobby in Montreal. He consistently made what appeared to be foolhardy choices by any rational standard and through some kind of klutzy, serendipitous charm made them work.

I can't tell you when the LIberals will go for a non-confidence vote. I can tell you, however, how Dion will make up his mind. In choosing "the good moment" (memo to his English teacher), he certainly will consider where the party is in the polls. He's not an idiot and, as a political scientist and former professor of public administration, he reads polls for the thrill. He won't jump if the numbers look bleak but, as other politicos do, he'll blame it on trumped-up reasons, such as Canadians don't want an election or it's time to focus on jobs, not votes. He'll take the measure of the country's mood and, like everyone else, he'll be watching to see what happens on Sept. 8, notably in St. Westmount-Ville Marie where formidable NDP candidate Ann Legacé-Dowson takes on Liberal star Marc Garneau. Another Outremont and it's the bottom of the ninth for Dion.

Then, he will listen to his gut and decide.

However, it would be a mistake to buy the theory he's burning the midnight oil in the Laurier Room at Stornaway, calculating the effects of a losing campaign on his chances in a leadership review. There is simply no evidence to suggest his mind has ever worked to assess personal gain in such a calculating manner. In fact, Dion would probably do just the opposite if he saw a personal risk — plunge in at the worst time because he has determined it's the right thing to do. For better or worse.

None of the above makes Dion a better politician. But it was my sense at the 2006 Liberal leadership convention that, among the reasons Dion won, the image of him as anti-politician was a big plus. That may no longer be the case.

Bell Canada: "Lean and mean" like Gordon Gekko

Michael Douglas in his Gordon Gekko role.

It's depressing this summer, the litany of plant closures and job losses, even the latest news that housing sales are falling across the country. Are you thinking this is what 1928 must have felt like?

At least a big corporation like BCE Inc. knows how to put the right spin on the loss of 2,500 jobs to appeal to a crowd that thinks newer, slicker, faster is always the way to go. "They are sending a message they intend to be lean and mean," industry analyst Carmi Levy told business reporter Tony Wong about yesterday's layoff announcement. Sounds like the kind of thing buyout champ Gordon Gekko (played by Michael Douglas) would could have said in the 1987 flick, Wall Street. Gekko's credo of "greed is good" pretty much summed up the decade.

Are we really back there?

To decode Bell's message, the company essentially appealed to its customers to believe they'll be better off with the layoffs. As Bell stressed, "non-management, front-line jobs" won't be affected. "Leaner and meaner" means better service for you. Now, putting aside the question of whether the public buys the idea they'll be better served by the dumping of 2,500 jobs, consider the underlying tone of a corporate message that had to have been worked out after long strategy sessions by high-priced help. BCE is betting people care more about their own lives — how's this going to affect me? — than the employees and their families. Maybe it's true, one observes sadly, but it's a rather distasteful message for a giant corporation like BCE, now owned by a group headed by the Ontario Teachers Pension Fund, to be sending out. I thought the me-me-me times were over.

Moreover, are we supposed to care less about management jobs than we do about auto workers getting the boot this summer? Oh well. As new BCE Inc. CEO George Cope so delicately put it: "It's always difficult to see colleagues depart, but these changes are absolutely necessary."

Hey, life goes on.

Layoff by email: Ford's latest innovation

Paul Miller, NDP economic critic at Queen's Park, is having a sour last laugh today on the province's development minister — one he doesn't particularly relish. It's over the latest 500 layoffs to hit the auto industry in Ontario, this time at Ford's plant in Oakville. I guess they're not technically layoffs because the new employees weren't scheduled to begin work until this morning. With three days to go, Ford informed the staffers-to-be their jobs no longer existed, with some getting the news by email.

Sadly, Miller is not surprised the jobs fell through. He stood up in the Legislature on June 4 to criticize the government's investment strategy in the auto industry. He could already see a grim summer of rolling layoffs looming for Ontario's auto sector and couldn't understand why Dalton McGuinty's Liberal government continued to pump money into the industry without having the ironclad job guarantees Miller sees as essential. Economic Development Minister Sandra Pupatello quickly put him in his place.

In her response, she stressed the government was working on a 20-year plan, in which industry could "shift on a dime" with changing events. Then she delivered a clincher as proof the auto strategy was working:

"We should use Ford Oakville as a very good example. Yesterday, they launched their new Flex. That is a new model that they could put in on a Flex line made possible by the Ontario government and by support from the federal government. That is why we saw an ad for the hiring of 500 jobs at the Oakville plant. I'd like this member to stand up and say that that is a failure."

"Failure," Miller told the Decoder this afternoon.

As he sees it, 500 "hardworking men and women" gave up good jobs for the opportunity with Ford, only to be kicked in the teeth. "You don't do that to people." Moreover, he says taxpayers are watching Ford walk away with $100 million in public money.

Why hasn't Ford turned on Pupatello's proverbial dime, asks Miller. Why aren't they using these workers to retrofit the plant?

It's been a tough slog for Miller to get his hands on specific information about the public sector grants to the auto industry. He says he learned that GM pledged to maintain 16,000 jobs in Ontario for its $250 million only by filing an Access to Information request for the contract. "Have those jobs been maintained? No."

He's listened to the government argue it will get money back at the end of the life of the contract in cases where a company doesn't deliver. He asks skeptically: "When has that ever happened?" Besides, he stresses the government has a "moral obligation" to provide for these workers.

He argues the Legislature should be in emergency session to deal with these dark weeks of layoffs in the summer of 2008. "That won't happen but the bottom line is that we (the NDP caucus) are not going to keep quiet about this. Sandra Pupatello and (Finance Minister) Dwight Duncan can pretend everything is hunky-dory, but people can see what's going on."

Everybody bleeds so have a care for Conrad and Barbara

Toronto Star Photo

Black and Amiel during trial in Chicago

Barbara Amiel authors a raw first-person piece in this week's Maclean's (Aug. 4) in which she describes the personal price she and her husband, Conrad Black, have paid for his trial and resulting conviction earlier this year (on 3 counts of mail fraud and one count of obstruction of justice). The case and recent denial of appeal were widely publicized — over-the-top, Amiel would say — and he is serving a 6 ^1/2 year sentence in a Florida prison. (Sorry, I can't link the story without using the Star's own library paid services because Maclean's charges for a full read of its columnists, and I'll respect that.)

Understandably, there are a lot of digs in the story, including her comment that, with the bludgeoning of Black's fortunes, they were defended in Chicago "not by the lawyers we would have liked, but the lawyers we could afford. Major difference." Hmmm. Do the initials E.G. come to mind? I'm sure others who are mentioned would rather not be.

I found the piece sad and tragic. Sad in the sense of the bereftness Amiel feels and tragic in the evidence of the worst aspects of human nature she describes. Amiel recounts betrayal by people they had favoured in headier days. She writes of an emergency conference call with the Hollinger Inc. board of directors at a time when hostile invaders were putting a financial squeeze on the company, listing participants as Fredrik Eaton, Douglas Bassett, Maureen Sabia and Allan Gotlieb, former ambassador to the U.S. and a man for whom Amiel claims Black did many favours. The directors refused Black's request for more time to raise money, according to Amiel, and the conversation over, Black hung up. "I did not," writes Amiel and continues:

"Nor did the other directors who, believing both of us off the line, abandoned their serious tone and began laughing and joking about the stew they had put Conrad in. "I should get an Oscar for my acting," said Golieb in reference to his performance as a concerned director. "I could barely stop myself from laughing when Barbara referred to her concern for Conrad's reputation," said Fred Eaton. The woman I had recommended for the board, my old schoolmate from St. Catharines, Ont., Maureen Sabia, sarcastically replied, "All she's worried about is her own reputation," and joined happily in the dissing of us both. Here, writ plainly, was the future. These people were among Conrad's oldest friends."

I can't comment on the case because, as Amiel herself points out, one would have to read all the court transcripts and judgments in order to reach a conclusion. She repeatedly dismisses her own take on the case as that of "the wife" — and what else would a reader expect than for a wife to defend her husband? I found that touching and honorable. But the behaviour of people Black and Amiel thought they could depend on — that's another matter.

I haven't always agreed with Amiel. Years ago, I interpreted the premise of her book, Confessions, to be that everybody is created with equal opportunity and those who fail, who don't pull themselves up by their bootstraps, have only themselves to blame. From life experience, including my work, I know that to be untrue. Moreover, in this essay, she argues that if the rich can't get justice, the poor are doomed. It's an argument that, just personally, I find distasteful and think it weakened the power of the piece.

However, the betrayal she describes is Shakespearean. It's universal and demeans us all when people behave in the manner she has described. Where were the better angels? I don't have a thousand friends and my Facebook entry is purely for my job and not a scavenger net. I believe in my gut a handful of people, friends all my life, would not betray me when I needed them. (Let's not get sidetracked into Sophie's Choice questions here.) Nor would I betray them. The conversation Amiel says she overheard was savage and one can only hope she and her husband have friends — true friends — upon whom they have been able to depend, apart from their own bond.

 

Why bother the public with bad news on food safety?

Tricky, tricky Ottawa — it's got to be a strategy. It's been all good news this week from the federal health ministry with the announcement new labelling requirements will require identification of such allergy-causing ingredients as peanuts and shellfish. How could one argue with that? Across the country, parents (among others) heave a sigh of relief at having one more tool to protect the health of their children.

But wait. What is the government not telling us? Remember that leaked report in the National Post about the government's plan to turn over much of the work of food inspection and labelling — including of meat products and animal feed — to the private sector? Saves money, saves labour costs and fits with a government that believes in deregulation. And the downside? Could be our health.

The story revealed that an employee of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency was fired for leaking a copy of the report to his union about the coming changes. The report was detailed and the fact that these regulatory changes haven't turned up yet has led critics to speculate Prime Minister Stephen Harper merely wants to put distance between the leaked report and the changes. It's worth stressing these proposed changes, as detailed by the Canadian Food Inspection Agency report, would bring Canadian policy in line with testing in the United States, where private industry has a far greater say over what the public ingests, especially through the administrations of Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush and Bush Jr., with Clinton staying the course. Writing streamlined policy — and policy that fits American requirements — is part of ongoing closed-door NAFTA regulations aimed at so-called "harmonization." It's doubtful the plan has been shelved, so stay tuned.

Eliminating or severely restricting government testing becomes more ominous in light of the Supreme Court decision earlier this month that paved the way for a $7-billion class action suit against the federal government on the part of 100,000 cattle ranchers. Lower courts had dismissed the suit. The ranchers argue they suffered financially during the mad cow crisis that surfaced in Canada in 2003 (and led to a ban on certain cattle exports to the U.S. and elsewhere) because the federal government dropped the ball. Although the link between BSE and feeding cattle and other livestock with animal by-products was already established and Britain banned the practice in 1988, Canada ignored the issue when it revised regulations for animal feed in 1990. In Britain, cattle were being incinerated in huge pyres but it took Canada until 2007 to specifically ban animal matter in feed for livestock. That delay — and we'll see what the court decides — came about with existing federal inspections.

And the Harper government apparently has a secret plan to reduce them further? Heaven help us.

But, hey, concentrate on the good news. It's la-la-la summertime.

NAFTA blues: public opinion runs against, plus potential threat to Canadian water

Voters in the 1988 federal election took sides on the issue of free trade with the United States. When Brian Mulroney won re-election on his free-trade agenda, he moved quickly to sign a treaty and begin negotiations on a larger scale - coming up with the North American Free Trade Agreement. It became law under the Liberals in 1994 and, despite problems over the years, Canadians generally accepted the consequences with characteristic politesse.

No longer.

It seems Canadians don't view an economy wedded to the United States and, in terms of disappearing jobs to Mexico, as such a great idea anymore. A new Angus Reid poll released this week shows a majority of Canadians want the deal renegotiated (52 per cent) in the belief this country got the short end of the the stick. The survey showed 46 per cent of those polled said NAFTA has benefited the U.S. most, while 30 perc ent said Mexico and only 7 per cent responded Canada has come out ahead of everyone else on the deal.

It's the second time this week NAFTA has presented potential problems for Canadians. Earlier, environmentalists on both sides of the border raised their concerns about the threat a recent agreement poses to Great Lakes-St Lawrence Basin water. The compact among eight U.S. Great Lakes states (with a side agreement already signed with Ontario and Quebec) is before the U.S. Congress and expected to be approved. While its design supposedly is to prevent bulk export of water, it does exactly the opposite, according to Michigan environmental lawer James Olson, by legally defining water as a "product" and not in the public domaine. It's a dangerous legal precedent, he says, and a slippery slope to eventual bulk export of water from the Great Lakes.

It appears that the agreement is following a trend set by NAFTA. Both Olson and Meera Karunananthan, water analyst for the Ottawa-based Council of Canadians, say NAFTA already leaves Canadian water resources exposed. That's because the 1994 treaty doesn't protect water, an omission that came after heavy lobbying by industry groups throughout NAFTA negotiations. That means water is nothing more than a commodity, as it is in other trade agreements, notably the World Trade Organization (or GATT, as it was known in 1994 when NAFTA became law). Commodity, product, same idea - and all exploitable for profit, rather than a vital resource required for human survival. Karunananthan believes the concept of viewing water as a commodity was the reason the Stephen Harper government foiled a plan at the United Nations Human Rights Council in Geneva earlier this year to have water recognized as a basic human right.

Already there have been challenges to Canadian sovereignty under the Chapter 11 provision of NAFTA, which ensures national treatment for corporations and entities in all three countries. In other words, the Canadian government cannot legally introduce a job initiative or a "Buy Canadian" plan that would favour domestic operations over U.S. and Mexican companies. The clause has remained untested, with a few notable exceptions, including the reversal of Ottawa's decision to ban the additive MMT in gasoline for environmental and health reasons after the Ethyl Corporation (which makes the additive) launched a lawsuit based on Chapter 11. More challenges are certain to come,  according to the Council of Canadians. In the absence of specific treaty protection for water in the NAFTA, a Chapter 11 challenge demanding national treatment could win the case for, say, a multinational bottling company that wants to export Great Lakes water. The Ontario government, for example, argues that less than one per cent of Ontario water is taken by foreign operations. A U.S. company could use Chapter 11 to hypothetically argue it is being unfairly treated since domestic companies already are bottling water. The NAFTA would trump all.

Besides, with water defined as a product and exempted from a ban on bulk diversions from the Great Lakes, it appears the heavy lifting is being done by other agreements. Unfortunately, a body of law designed to do the opposite and protect Canadian resources seems to be lacking - sadly.

Nipplegate: Conspiracy, Misogyny and Capitalism

I'd planned to post today on the threat to Great Lakes water and — while I am veritably seized with this environmental problem — it is summertime. On to more mammorable topics. Ewww, sorry.

Plus, the Decoder has a job to do, a civilization to defend.

It looks like there's more to this alleged "wardrobe malfunction" than meets the eye, no pun intended since nobody saw more than the flash of a snazzy sunburst nipple cover back in 2004 when Justin Timberlake ripped open Janet Jackson's bodice during the Superbowl half-time show. During the duo's number, as 90 million viewers probably recall, Timberlake reached across Jackson's bustier and pulled open a flap, singing: ""Gonna have you naked by the end of this song." 

Nipple alert, nipple alert. What a hullabaloo, what a way to pull in publicity, guys. Still, virtuous CBS pleaded "wardrobe malfunction." After a protracted battle with the FCC, a federal court ruling released yesterday, dismissed indecency charges against CBS and struck down the hefty fine. Democracy is saved, although I wonder if the regulators will junk those time-delays. Or are they too convenient a censorship tool?

Okay, few of us bought the couple's 'big whoops!' theory. Too neat, practised. And yesterday, Jackson admitted the "reveal" was planned. But Don Macpherson, Gazette political columnist, sports junkie and former television journalist, takes it further. In an email today, (my friend) Macpherson points out the shot of Jackson's breast lasted exactly nine-sixteenths of a second. "Anybody who has ever been in a television control room during a live broadcast knows it's impossible to make a clean cut so quickly without the director, the switcher and the operator of the camera to which the cut is being made all being ready."

Therefore, he argues, CBS had to be in on the ruse, along with Timberlake and Jackson.

Furthermore, Macpherson believes "the real issue here is not the supposed nudity (which in fact did not occur, since Jackson's nipple was concealed by a decoration), but rather the simulation of a sexual assault, which most people have overlooked."

He first brought the issue to the attention of his readers in February, 2004, when he wrote in his column:

After vowing lyrically to "have you naked by the end of this song," Timberlake suddenly reached across Jackson's body and tore away the right top of her costume, in effect wordlessly adding: "Whether you like it or not." Jackson's stage reaction was one of first shock, then anger.

So an audience that tuned in to watch a football game also saw a simulation of a sexual assault as misogynistic entertainment. And parents who remembered how they imitated the pop stars of their youth found themselves needing to explain to their sons that, no matter what Justin Timberlake does on stage, it's not cool for boys to tear the clothes off girls. Anybody who was offended by that was right.

Don and his wife Kate Greenaway are raising two boys. Seems like they are in pretty good hands.

Nude blonde at the gas station with Ferrari (with PHOTOS)

REUTERS

A customer to remember

A sleepy summer Monday so let's spice things up with some recent stories from the online English edition of Pravda. Once the go-to house organ of the Communist Party in the USSR, Pravda (at least online) has shifted from lengthy columns on wheat yields and five-year economic plans to steamier fare. "With photos," blared a recent story about a naked blonde in East Germany who visited a gas station wearing only stilettos, a thin, gold bracelet and a large tattoo on her back. (More we couldn't see.) She was in a Ferrari. Of course. Ever conscious of my readers, I helpfully provided a link to the story and a couple of photos.

Maybe it's not so far-fetched for Russia, given the country pioneered nude newscasters — with nude guests — an idea that proved ahead of its time.

Pravda has more, much more. To coincide with a recent visit to Moscow by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Pravda offered a scintillating report on marital difficulties between George and Laura Bush.

GRAIN OF SALT ALERT: Seems the first couple is divorcing after the next election because of George W.'s relationship with his secretary of state. Details include an alleged $20 million payoff to Laura Bush and a recent Freudian slip in which Rice started to refer to George W. as "my hus-" before snapping into "the president." If you're wondering why we haven't been reading all this in the mainstream press, the Pravda stories slips in, almost as an aside, that the source is the National Enquirer. Oh. Unassailable.

Other must-reads include:

• Muscular bronze stallion with weird human genitalia advertises provincial hotel
• I struggled for years with a fat belly, until I found this 1 secret.
• Crazy, wealthy Russians will soon purchase the whole of the French Riviera
• Another US family kills another baby adopted from Russia

Some may have a grain of truth, but the spin. Wowee!

Naturally, your faithful blogger doesn't read this kind of drivel. I must excuse myself and point the finger at the person who tipped me off to the Pravda site: Toronto musician, artist and Internet trawler, the very talented Steve Castellano. He has a number of interesting gigs going these days, including the recent launch of a jazzy, intellectually-bent podcast with a late-night feel. He promises his second post (maybe today) will have his entry to the CBC's search for a new Hockey Night in Canada theme.

Steve (who I must disclose is a pal) also has a cool website with existential feline cartoons. Really.

He's no John Lennon

CP PHOTO

Sir P earlier this year

What fun it is when Sir Paul McCartney talks about Canada and gets all muddled up in our exotic and complicated customs. Former colonies can be soooooo tricky.

Sir Paul once gave Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams the thrill of a lifetime. On TV. During a debate between the pair over sealing (Willians for, Sir P against) on CNN' Larry King Live, Sir Paul declared he was in Newfoundland.

"No, you're not," replied Williams. "You're in Prince Edward Island."

Never mind.

A series of photographs chronicling the gaffe hang in a place of honour in the premier's office in St. John's.

Sir Paul is coming to Quebec and that's drawn the ire of nationalists. How can he celebrate Quebec's 400th anniversary when his songs have English lyrics? (Hey, what about Michelle? That's a French name.)

In a couple of interviews before his trans-Atlantic flight, Sir Paul, who didn't reveal what he was smoking, advised "Quebeckians" to smoke "the pipes of peace."

To be entirely accurate, he said: "Come on Quebeckians, love me, baby."

John Lennon: Imagine

Paul McCartney: Love me, baby

Oh, and Sir Paul kicked off his comments with the proviso: "I hate to go off half-baked."

Hohohohohohohohohohohoho

Sir Paul performs Sunday in a concert on the Plains of Abraham. Maybe he can be persuaded Quebeckians would just love to see him dressed up for a lark as Gen. James Wolfe.

That's the ticket.

(Kidding, kidding)

Fidel Castro on rising unemployment in Canada, cabbages and kings

The Associated Press

El Comandante in better health in 1993

Ill, isolated and wearing the ubiquitous leisurewear of the elderly in place of fatigues and combat boots, Fidel Castro continues to send his ideas around the world. Torrents of them. Gathered by his staff, faithfully sent to embassies, "Reflections by Comrade Fidel" arrive regularly in foreign IN boxes, two, sometimes more a week, never less than seven or eight pages. Remember, he used to speak for seven, eight hours at a stretch. It's obvious he's still reading (or being read) prodigious amounts of information. One imagines Comrade Fidel dictating from his bed in the stickiness of a July night in Havana, or working from a country retreat, pondering the state of the world and his role in it. It appears from the contents of these missives his news comes more from staffers providing hard copies of newswires, rather than from surfing the web himself (even if the state operates outside restrictions imposed upon ordinary citizens when it comes to computer data) — but it's hard to say. Inner sanctum stuff.

Recent photos taken by Granma, the state news agency, show him older, greyer, gaunter and stooping badly. He hasn't been seen in public (other than official photos) in more than two years, not even when his brother Raul officially replaced him last March. His health is a state secret, although there has been speculation about stomach cancer and, at one point, a Spanish surgeon performed extensive intestinal surgery.

In March, he stayed in bed to chat with his friend, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. They have always been tight and Chavez plans another visit to Cuba next week. It's easy to imagine, too, Castro straining to talk over a phone line with Gabriel "Gabo" Garcia Marquez in Mexico City. Unquestionably, they stay in close touch. Still, the image now is more of solitude, a lonelier man who has known great power and who appears to be fighting mightily against the dying of the light.

His latest missive, entitled "The Powerless Powers" and stamped July 14, 2.24 p.m., begins: "It is a serious subject."

It's more a summary of the recent G8 summit than a fiery attack from the old days. There's news from Sweden, nothing extraordinary, and an unusual wrap of bulleted news events. They begin, "Unemployment rate in Canada rose to 6.2 percent in June," and end, "The bodies of two American soldiers who disappeared in Iraq more than a year ago have been found."

All dated July 11, Castro writes that "in these lines one could add dozens of similar news items that were printed on the same day. On Saturdays, information diminishes; Sundays, there is hardly any news, the journalists are resting. Today is Monday."

Right.

He does, however, push to a final point, a mellow assessment that says  "thorny problems" challenge the abilities of world leaders.

"This is not a criticism. It is an observation. It cannot be expected of human beings to have supernatural abilities.

"Optimism will always be the best option. There is no other alternative. That's the reason why I once spoke about a species in danger of becoming extinct."

What is there to say?

GM's G. Richard Wagoner Jr. leading by example

THE ASSOCIATED PRESS

GM Chairman and CEO G. Richard Wagoner Jr.

News about more layoffs in GM's North American operations today — this time white collar workers — was not a huge surprise. Devastating, but not a surprise. It's no fun whatsoever to be laid off, especially in this brutal economy. However, what wounds on top of the layoffs announced by GM chair G. Richard Wagoner Jr. was the added detail that health benefits are being suspended for company retirees. GM justified this particular decision — apart from the need to raise $15 billion by 2009 — by saying the company would top up pensions from its "overfunded" pension fund to help compensate for Medicare and supplemental insurance.

Boy, there's a promise you can take to the bank.

It appears U.S. retirees are being thrown overboard. Canadian retirees would appear to be in a better place than their American counterparts simply because, with all its problems, Canada's health care system is not the same two-tiered monster in place in the United States. (Yet.)

In the first place, the U.S. Medicare system for Americans 65 years and over has been criticized for years for restricted care through a drastically underfunded plan. Some critics have warned it's in danger of going broke completely, a phenomenon that doesn't feel so absurd in a week in which the federal government is bailing out both huge mortgage funds, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. There's only so much money and gigantic debt, including the U.S. government's.

Worse, during many years based in Washington, I often saw notices in physicians' offices saying they wouldn't accept Medicare patients or that the plan was severely restricted. Often, it was simply a word-of-mouth understanding.

That's why GM workers negotiated health benefits for their retirees in the first place.

Granted, GM announced it is cutting cash bonuses. Without at least that, today's pile-on of bad news would have been grossly immoral. Still, although one strained to hear, what Wagoner did not say, was that he would cut his own base salary, or that other executives were stepping up to the plate. It would have been a significant gesture. According to analysis by The Associated Press, Wagoner's pay increased by 64 per cent to $15.7 million (including bonus) in 2007 — even as GM endured $39 billion in losses and the share price plummeted by $19. Besides, as the article reported:

"Compensation has become a shell game,'' said Richard Ferlauto, director of pension and benefits policy for the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees, a Washington labor group.

"So they take away the bonus,'' he said, "but then they still come up with ways to make sure the executive gets a big payout.''

Breaking the terms of a contract with the most vulnerable of your workers — seniors on fixed income — appears pretty heartless by executives who have made piles and piles of money out of their GM gigs over the years — especially when Wagoner announced today's plan was "a strategy to win" and not just one to "survive." 

Rick Hillier's Timing

REUTERS

Generals Walter Natynczyk and Rick Hillier changing command in Ottawa

There was all kinds of scuttlebutt when Gen. Rick Hiller resigned as chief of defence staff recently, mainly over whether he was nudged out because he didn't get along with the PM. One reason not considered was Hillier's amazing sense of timing.

Hiller, too, was publicly optimistic about Afghanistan in his exit interviews, however it was his replacement Gen. Walter Natynczyk from Kandahar on the weekend putting what the Canadian Press called a "uniquely cheerful assessment" on the security situation. The data on Taliban attacks show otherwise and Natynczyk spoke to reporters on a weekend in which nine American soldiers died in fighting and 24 civilians lost their lives in a suicide bomb blast. Furthermore, Taliban militants executed two women they accused of running a prostitution service for U.S. troops — and then provided video of the savagery.

There can be no suggestion Hillier finds that situation anything but painful, but it is worth nothing that, with his retirement, he's not facing the questions at a time when Afghanistan increasingly feels very, very bad.

And a postcript on the HBO miniseries Generation Kill: Some of the best brains I know have bemoaned the fact I've never seen The Wire. (I know, I will get the DVD.) Now its creator David Simon has collaborated with journalist Evan Wright on his book about the early days of the U.S. invasion of Iraq to create Generation Kill. I wasn't going to miss this one. Besides, my view was from Washington covering Donald Rumseld's "stuff happens" performances in the spring of 2003. For the next few summer Sundays my time is booked at 9 pm with Generation Kill on the Movie Channel.

Decoding the Conservative message Ontario the "last place" to invest

The Canadian Press

Thumbs up on budget night last February.

It's no surprise Liberal Gerard Kennedy blames Conservative PM Stephen Harper for not stepping in to boost Ontario's flagging economy. His analysis of the issue, however, and particularly Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's aggression against the Dalton McGuinty government is interesting.

Kennedy, the former leadership candidate who's running in Parkdale-High Park, argues Harper is starting to make mistakes at this point in his tenure, the most egregious being Flaherty's comment earlier this year Ontario was the "last place" investors would want to put their money because corporate taxes are too high. Flaherty's bruising style continued when, on the eve of the McGuinty budget, he held a press conference to say Ontario was on the road to becoming a "have-not" province.

The federal campaign drew a lot of critical attention to the McGuinty financial plan under Dwight Duncan. Yet to some, it didn't make sense because the downside appeared too risky in vote-rich Ontario. Kennedy, who interrupted summer campaigning for a Toronto Star interview this week, has no problem dissecting the issue. In his view, the entire campaign, including the "last place" line, was a "100 percent political calculation." He sees Harper's goal, expressed through former Ontario Conservative finance minister Flaherty, as getting out in front of the downturn in Ontario and planting any blame squarely on the McGuinty-Duncan duo and away from any federal responsibility. The campaign had the PM's seal of approval.

But Kennedy argues Harper didn't think it through, and it's backfiring. As the news gets worse (including today's report on the job downturn by StatsCan) blame goes to Ottawa. Said Kennedy: ""There are only two people international investors listen to, and they are the prime minister and the finance minister. Flaherty hurt Canadian companies with that comment."

Kennedy thinks Harper will be wearing the Flaherty line in Ontario in the next election. Voters, he argues, make a direct connection between their economic problems and the widely-publicized opinions of the federal finance minister. The line resonated with people as a putdown of their province, he said, whether they support McGuinty or not.

He may be right. It's hard for a reporter to go anywhere in Ontario on any story with economic implications and not hear somebody repeat Flaherty's "last place" line. The line certainly has legs. It's to his benefit, of course, but Kennedy suggests Ontarians make Harper's Conservatives the "last place" for their votes come election time.

Hard-hit Ontarians pessismistic about future

CP PHOTO

Protesting GM workers in Oshawa

Ontarians are reeling from bad economic news. GM is bleeding jobs and, along with it, the province is losing related employment, from auto parts to advertising. Meanwhile, people are being hit by soaring prices, resulting from the high cost of oil - and it's not even winter yet, with its home heating bills. It's all sinking in.

IpsosReid has polled Ontarians on the TD Bank report earlier this year forecasting Ontario would become a "have-not" province by 2010, thereby qualifying for equalization payments from the federal government. Almost two in five (38 per
cent) of those polled agree the province is on the brink of acquiring the "have-not" label. While it's not a majority, another 36 percent aren't sure - hardly good news. Only 26 percent of respondents don't expect this to happen.

The poll had some interesting results, showing more men than women are pessimistic (46 to 31 percent) while older Ontarians have a bleaker view, although not by much, with the 35-54 age category not far behind the 55+ range. The higher the education and income levels, the more Ontarians think Ontario is on the verge of becoming a "have-not" province. Only Northern Ontario appears to be bucking the trend.

More than half of respondents - 57 percent - list a number of factors combined for their pessimism, including the provincial government, Ottawa, the U.S. slowdown and the strong Canadian dollar. But the clincher is the lack of faith in the current crop of politicians, whether Dalton McGuinty and Dwight Duncan in Ontario or Stephen Harper and Jim Flaherty in Ottawa, to develop legislation to tackle the problem.

People are losing their jobs or they know somebody who's lost their job and they're losing confidence in their province. This apparent lack of faith is disturbing. It is not a carefree, happy summer in Ontario.

Shame (I say) on the media for neglecting PM.

CP PHOTO

PM Harper, son Ben and wife Laureen arrive in Japan Sunday

It would appear the recent shakeup in the PMO already is paying dividends for Prime Minister Stephen Harper. You couldn't get much more glowing coverage than an editorial about this week's G8 Summit by the GuardianTelegraph. It says:

"Of all the leaders, only Stephen Harper - the talented but curiously neglected Canadian prime minister - is able to point to a popular and successful record in office."

Hoooo-boy. That's like striking political gold for new chief-of-staff Guy Giorno and Kory Teneycke, director of communications. If other leaders were more like Harper, the editorial says, "we might not be in this mess."

Now, nobody should jump to conclusions in the blame game. But who but the Canadian media could have left Mr. Harper in this "curiously neglected" state?  Let's get on it, ladies and gentlemen.

CBC "outs" its own on-air host about running for the NDP

Matthew Thompson Photo

Jack Layton with Anne Legacé-Dowson at her launch party

Radio Canada/CBC seems to have learned its lesson when it comes to losing journalists to politics. Perhaps burned by the reportedly abrupt departures last year of two journalists in the provincial election — Bernard Drainville, who ran successfully for the Parti Québécois, and Christine St. Pierre, elected on a Liberal ticket — management in Monteral was taking no chances with a third.

When popular Radio Noon host Anne Legacé-Dowson recently told her boss she was thinking about running for the federal NDP, she was put on immediate leave. Two days later, before Legacé-Dowson had made her final decision, she says she was "outed" as an NDP candidate at a staff meeting. "I guess they were feeling a little burned," she says, of predecessors who apparently told the Mothercorp of their decisions at the last possible moment. While she almost certainly would have decided to run, the announcement left no turning back.

Legacé-Dowson aims high. She is taking on Marc Garneau, best known as the first Canadian in space. Garneau, who ran unsuccessfully for the Liberals in Vaudreuil-Soulanges in the last election, has decided to run in the riding of Westmount-Ville Marie, after patching up differences with party leader Stéphane Dion. Liberal Lucienne Robillard stepped down in January and the Prime Minister has to call a by-election no later than July 25 for the riding, meaning that barring a general election, Westmount-Ville Marie voters likely will go to the polls in September or October. Legacé-Dowson is optimistic.

"Like Tom Mulcair in Outremont, I'm not running to make a good showing. I am in it to win," she said, referring to the NDP's successful candidate in another Montreal Island riding. She says recent polling in her riding — a longtime Liberal stronghold — shows the NDP's Jack Layton is the most popular federal leader. She also notes her name recognition factor, high due to her radio career, matches Garneau's. Legacé-Dowson hopes her leave from the CBC will turn into a permanent gig. At her launch party in Montreal, she predicted:

"The Liberals think they can parachute in an astronaut to float to an easy victory ... Well, Houston, we have a problem."

Freedom for Betancourt/ransom or rescue?

The Associated Press

Ingrid Betancourt in Paris July 6.

It's sweet to know Ingrid Betancourt is no longer being held by rebels in the Colombian jungle, but let's not jump to conclusions, either about the circumstances of her release, or its implications.

The Franco-Colombian politician, captured by FARC rebels in 2002, was held (at least partly) in the Caqueta region of southeastern Colombia, a dangerous and unforgiving place where she came to see every leaf, every branch, every pathway as something vile and ready to attack her. She was campaigning for president in 2002, operating under a "safe-conduct" from the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), when she was betrayed and taken. They surrounded her vehicle on the isolated road inland from the little airport at San Vicente del Caguan, while Betancourt was attempting to negotiate peace with the rebels, as had so many national and international diplomats and politicians before her, including Canadians. I know that area well and felt chills when she was captured because I've reported from FARC camps there under the same kind of "safe conduct" arrangement the rebels so easily broke with Betancourt. It's a hot, humid hell with no light. Her courage, resilience and strength are unassailable and should be applauded.

However, too many fast assumptions have been made since her release, with arguments that serve politicians in Colombia, the U.S. and Canada. President Alvaro Uribe sees it as justification to seek a third term, a bid that would require a constitutional amendment because it's currently forbidden under Colombian law. His second election in 2006 has already been disputed, with the former congressman who cast the deciding vote for Uribe in 2006 receiving a four-year prison sentence for fraud. Furthermore, while Uribe's ratings have soared since Betancourt's release (and he has been praised by the former captive herself), the  Washington Post, among others, recently reported his cousin and close ally was arrested for alleged ties to the country's death squads, part of a widening inquiry that has implicated a quarter of the Colombian Congress.

It's far from clear whether the rescue account of the Colombian military/government is correct. Within days of her release last week, national Swiss radio reported the rescue came about after a $20-million ransom was paid to FARC guerrillas, and not after a daring ruse in which rebels were tricked into "relocating" her by helicopter, along with 14 other hostages, including three U.S. contract workers. Betancourt doesn't believe the Swiss report, but it's impossible to know the circumstances in the murky politics of Colombia. What she saw happen — which includes a FARC rebel being relieved of his weapons and stripped naked — could well have been part of a plot to get a paid collaborator to safety. There are many questions to explore. Betancourt looked remarkably healthy for somebody just coming out of captivity. (Even a couple of weeks or a month in jungle settings left me looking like death warmed over.) I am in no way questioning Betancourt's ordeal or many years in captivity — and I want to underscore that point!!! — but I did wonder when exactly she was released. Was there, for any number of reasons, a substantial delay before we saw her?

I've read more than enough about internal Colombian politics over the last few days from pundits who have never been to Colombia and who write from afar. They must be taken with a grain of salt, especially those with a free-trade agenda to flog.

Which leads us to the other serious issue with Colombia: free trade. John McCain, a huge proponent of free trade with Colombia for both the U.S. and Canada, happened to be in the South American country when Betancourt was rescued. What a coincidence. He saw her release as proof Colombia is ready for a trade agreement. But how can we tell through the smoke and mirrors? The Canadian parliamentary committee studying the Canada-Colombia deal recommended no deal until an extensive human rights review had been completed. Even though a deal has been announced, that still sounds like good advice.

Blogger gone fishing

Canada Day celebrations continue. The blog will return July 7.