Mayweather and Pacquiao! Finally!

Any sports fan with a pulse has to find it quickening at the news that Manny Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather have finally agreed to throw down for the pound-for-pound crown.

Tough to overstate the magnitude of this one but it's easily the biggest fight of the decade and probably bigger than any fight that took place in the 90s too. It's a clash between two first-ballot hall-of-famers who are still near the top of their games, and a mega-event that figures to smash the pay-per-view records Mayweather set in his 2007 showdown with Oscar De La Hoya.

It's also compelling evidence of something I and a lot of boxing purists have maintained since the UFC emerged as a dominant force on the combat sports scene.

Boxing ain't dead.

In 2007 Mayweather's 12-round decision win over De La Hoya was supposed to herald the end of boxing's run as a mainstream sport. After that fight, the UFC was supposed to crowd the sweet science out of the collective sports consciousness.

Purists and casual fans alike had grown tired of the proliferation of titles that cheapened the meaning of each belt, and of inter-promoter bickering that kept the best fighters from clashing. After Mayweather and De La Hoya fought we were supposed to turn away from all that drama and tune into the brutal simplicity of the UFC, where Dana White makes sure the best always fight the best (as long as the best are under contract).

But instead of getting lost, boxing got a clue. Great fights started happening regardless of who held what belt. Miguel Cotto fought Shane Mosely, then Antonio Margarito. Mayweather flattened Ricky Hatton and Pacquiao pounded his way through three weight classes.

Suddenly sports fans were paying attention.

Instead signalling boxing's death, Mayweather-De La Hoya led to boxing's re-birth on the mainstream sports scene, of which Pacquiao's ascent from Filipino cult hero to stateside Nike pitchman is a stunning example.

But for Pacquiao, conquering Madison Ave. is one thing; conquering Mayweather is something else.

Since moving up from lightweight Pacquiao has dismantled a drained De La Hoya, destroyed an outgunned Hatton, and plastered a shellshocked Cotto. He has looked indestructible lately, but against Mayweather we'll see how he stacks up against a master boxer who, unlike his last three opponents, won't lead with his chin.

Mayweather, meanwhile, finally gets to silence critics who have needled him for years about avoiding the welterweight division's best. The undefeated Mayweather claims to be the greatest fighter since the original Sugar Ray, but will have to change his story if he can't get past Pacquiao.

Mayweather thinks he will

And I agree with him -- to a point.

I don't think anyone makes "easy work" of Pacquiao because Pacquiao over the last year has proven that he's just that good.

But Mayweather wins because he's that much better. He's a defensive master and the smartest fighter of his generation, a brilliant counterpuncher who is stronger than most people give him credit for. 

Will Pacquiao land some shots?

Of course he will. But no way he lands like he did in his last three fights. Mayweather's much too elusive. And he won't run the way Cotto did when Pacquiao found some success, nor will he settle in and wait for the end like De La Hoya did when he figured out Pac-man was actually pretty damn good. Instead he'll stalk behind a stiff jab, belt Pacquiao to the body and solve any puzzle the Pac-man presents him.

I should warn you that my predictions are not legally binding, and if you jet to Vegas and bet the house based on what you read here, neither I nor the Star are responsible for your losses. Besides, a lot can change in the three months leading up to fight night.

But my prediction won't.

If you disagree, feel free to let me know.

Comments

[AC]

Still on the fence about this one Morgan. Pacquiao is really starting to enter into his true prime but it's still a fight I would never bet on.

Also, this card will easily be bigger than any MMA card that promoters can come up with. With that said, this is the last big match up that boxing will probably ever have. I agree, boxing isn't dead...yet.

[Fuzion]

i'm a big fan of both fighters, but for me it boils down to this being the first time Manny gets to fight a fighter in his prime, and w/ both speed and agility.. all the people you mentioned were good.. but i feel that PBF also laid out the blueprint to those opponents.. Cotto? well, we all know that he fights w/ his heart more than his head.. his talent is great, but we know he's liable to go down in a fight.. he's just proven to get back out and tough out the win.. against Manny, though, we saw what I would've expected PBF to do to Cotto if they were to fight..

i still feel that PBF is the best defensive fighter i've seen.. the way he tucks his chin and guards the body, but still can get ANY shot he wants in, is impressive.. hate if you want, but PBF is the best we've seen in the last decade..

people also forget that Manny is liable to go down too.. i see PBF pulling a Hatton on this one.. where he literally destroys him over time.. yes, Manny will get his in on PBF, but i feel that he'll run out of gas and the shots will catch up to him.. i'm not sure it'll be a KO, but i do feel it will be a unanimous decision..

[Wall $treet]

Morgan,

I am with you on this, one hunned!

We know Manny has problems with counterpunchers & tacticians like Juan Manuel Marquez. JMM stretched Manny to his limits for 24 rounds, once in the May 2004 draw that saw JMM on his back looking at the lights 3 times in the first round & rise to show his resolve & a controversial split decision in 2008, where when presented with a base of $6M for a third fight, Pacquiao replied: "I don't think so, this business is over" .

PBF is a whole 'nother beast & they know it!

Granted, Manny has become a far better boxer / puncher than he was in the 2 wars with JMM. But he can be touched... alot & often!

If slow footed, slow punching JMM & Migael Cotto could inflict the kind of damage they did on Pacman, what does the world believe the Most Accurate Marksman in Punchstat History will do March 13, 2010 to Manny?

Floyd is dedicated to the rigors of preparation for EVERY opponent & exhibits this respect in every fight. Mayweather is the most disciplined boxer I've ever seen. His dedication to his craft is unparalleled.

I think PBF dissects Manny like a 7th grade science project, despite Manny's evolved boxer/puncher skills since Marquez II.

Manny is a far better boxer than he once was, but he will never win that modeling contest vs. Floyd, so he'll have to go back to being Manny. And the most underrated thing about PBF is his adherence to his discipline & sticking to his war plan. It's a war of attrition that PBF will win easily in my opinion...and I like both of the combatants alot!

I think that after he fights & beats Manny, he should fight Mosely, who beats a game Andre Berto, then fight Paul Williams at 154.

The only cat who I believe could offer a challenge to the skills & speed of PBF is the soon to be 38 year old Mosely. Shane needs that money to pay his ex-wife Jin aka HALF! That is why, even as a champion, he's running around like Clubber Lang hounding Rocky Balboa, chasing PBF after he turned down opportunities in the past to fight Floyd.

Funny how soon people forget that PBF chased him for years, but no one answered the call...

Once he beats them all, what will they say?

Fight Cotto, who lost to Pacquiao in a dramatically brutal fashion & should retire now?

Fight Clottey, who is a stepping stone type guy & not really "The Champ" type who's gonna draw fans with his style? Clottey's afraid of success... He is a contendah!

There will always be someone clamoring for PBF to lose or "take a challenge"...Maybe one of them takes him into deep waters...Maybe it's Manny... maybe Floyd falls down...But what if he's so skilled that day never comes?

Though I love both boxers for what they do in the ring, truth is, PacMan is made for Floyd. Never have we seen a fighter connect at a 60 % clip vs. hall of famers like JMM & De La Hoya, which Floyd did. The numbers don't lie...We can talk Castillo, Judah, the late Diego Corrales, blah, blah even DLH supposedly gave PBF "trouble".

At the end of the day, again, the numbers don't lie.

There is a reason he's 40-0.

[Jason Abelson]

WHOA!!!!!!...Morgan, those last three Pacquiao opponents that "led with their chins" were guys that Mayweather either avoided outright (Cotto), or gave "Money" far tougher fights (Hatton was TKO'd in 10 hard rounds by Mayweather, while Pacquiao eviscerated him easily in 2 -- and Oscar D actually beat Mayweather according to one judge, yet wouldn't leave his corner for the 9th round against Pacquiao last December).

Pacquiao and Mayweather took nearly indentical roads leading up to this fight (except Pacuiao beat up bigger men, and Mayweather, excluding Oscar, out-slicked smaller ones).

[Rob Cruz]

Manny is on a win streak and this will be a true test of Manny's technical boxing abilities against the defensive trickster Money Mayweather. The difference between the two boxers is Manny is backed up by a whole nation which gives him the inspiration to be that best that he can be and he will need it against Floyd jr. I give PBF all the respect with his timing, footwork and patience in the ring but when these two collide, Manny will impose his will first and Floyd will wait for his moment to catch Manny coming in and punish him.
The common denominators between the two boxers is Floyd was able to put away a bloated lightweight Juan Marquez who gave Manny the most trouble, while Manny was able to put away an aging Oscar Dela Hoya and an over rated Ricky Hatton a lot quicker than PBF did. Manny has blistering speed from both hands while PBF has a very dangerous left jab/hook that he uses to soften his opponents.
There is no blueprint to beat Money Mayweather but Manny has the best chance of giving him the most trouble in the ring thus far.

[Morgan Campbell]

Jason!

I don't know where floyd picked up this "only fights smaller guys" reputation. PBF's win over DLH was at 154, a weight class Manny has yet to touch, and a class where a late-career oscar was MUCH more effective than he was at welterweight. That weight, plus the fact that DLH had roach in his corner against floyd, are what account for the wide discrepancy in results vs oscar for manny and floyd. Put roach in oscar's corner and put the fight at 154 and see how well manny does.

We both know common opponents tell only half the story. Otherwise Margarito should have steamrolled Shane the way he did Cotto.

But he didn't.

Styles and circumstances, man. That's what makes fights.

As for hatton....I know you know boxing, so maybe u should watch that fight again. Floyd won that fight on the inside. Didn't "outslick" Hatton. Just outfought him point blank.

Question: since the knock against Mayweather is that he picks on smaller guy, does he get full credit if he defeats the smaller Pacquiao, or do they put an asterisk next to that win too?

[Jason]

I am curious to see How Manny Pacquiao can win this fight. I like the fact,contrary to most of May 1st that Pacquiao took this fight for March 13 as he is banking on his momentum from the Cotto fight and less time needed to train as he is still in shape(unlike a long layoff).

[Diego]

Floyd is tailored made for Pacquiao's style. For Floyd to win this fight he'll need to do more than just shoulder roll his way to a decision because Manny is too busy and his connect rate is off the charts. Floyd will have to get out of his comfort zone and 'fight' Pacquiao.

Mayweather is being pushed to fight someone he would normally avoid but this time the money is too great.

The problem here for Floyd is that he is fighting someone who is faster, stronger, younger and hungrier than him. Floyd is just a slicker fighter but at this point in his career, he is being fed to Manny.

Don't let the Mayweather / Marquez fool you. Corrales looked the same against Clottey. You take away the Oscar, Hatton and Marquez fights and you have Pacquiao annihilating the the best welterweight among the four welters that both Floyd and Pacquiao fought (Sharmba Mitchell, Zab Judah, Baldomir, and Cotto)

[BOIEMACHO]

Thank you Mr. Morgan for your writing and predictions. I need more writers like you to balance out the odds of Pacman-Cheaterweather match. In fact and I hope that Pacman will be the underdog with the big margin because it has been a while that my bet on PACMAN won less.

[Beth]

Mayweather is smart. Shoulder roll, chin in, protect body while leaving back totally exposed then duck under punches. He knows being hit in the back won't count for nothing, so he totally protects his open side. He also plays the running game without ever getting tired.

With that said, the key in this fight for Pacman is Freddie Roach. Freddie claims to know exactly how to fight Mayweather. The Dela Hoya fight gave us a slight clue as to how to fight Mayweather. DLH was winning that fight then started losing it when he stopped throwing the jab. Not surprising since he's not the smartest fighter out there. Then again, I'm not expecting Pac to win by throwing the jab. He is at a physical advantage in every respect, especially in reach. So Floyd should be expected to win. But with Pac you just never know. He shouldn't even be fighting at welterweight. The guy has beaten the odds time and time again. Will this fight be more than he can chew, or will he surprise us all yet again? Manny is coming into this fight motivated. He will be focused 100%, and that makes him dangerous.

[kenn ronquillo]

tsk tsk tsk. Still a doubting Thomas eh? Why not ask both men the same question if they're ready to fight each other and have their pulses checked at the same time. Let's see who's got the higher confidence level. Indeed, Floyd will never "lead with his chin". Wanna guess what anatomical part he would lead with instead because of the running? Yup you guess it right.

[Rob]

Rob,

Hatton is not a true welterweight and he even admit it before the Pacquiao fight. Marquez loss his speed and punching power when he gone up to welterweight and fought Mayweather, his a true lightweight. So are they smaller guys or not? The bottomline is Mayweather will now fight a true 147lbs champion on even terms and he has to bring something new to overcome a fearsome opponent.

Though I agree that styles makes fights.

[THE DUDE]

Unlike most speed guys out there, Manny is totally different. He does pick his shots and wait. He's no longer that old "Unleash all punches no matter what" type of guy. He is doing good on his defense too. Thing is, he's not just a speed guy. He's power too and a smart fighter as well. I think a lot of people disregard these qualities of Manny's and most just focus on criticizing him for his speed. He picks his shots and release a well timed 4-5 punch combination from nowhere. Well he does have some issues on his defense once he attacks. It's more like, he defends himself with punches. Floyd on the other hand, the dude's got amazing defense and timing. Smartest fighter i've ever seen because he prioritizes on protecting his chin. But i'd still bet with Manny. And please don't downplay Manny's achievements on ODH, R. Hatton and Miguel Cotto. Those fighters we're top caliber fighters.

[diloy]

there's a reason he is 40 - 0...ask julio cesar chaves jr.

[gorilla]

Manny Pacquiao will win this fight believe it or not

[new era]

An extreme defensive fighter will not win convincingly. A great offensive fighter does. What's make the fight between Manny and Floyd is because of the Pacman's all out offensive and consistent attack. Citing the Dela Hoya-Mayweather fight, the Golden Boy said in a post fight, "if I didn't pressed hard all the way until the last round, there should have been no fight". The judges didn't saw what he really did but the other way around that's why he challenged Floyd for a rematch that it didn't happen. Win or lose, Pacquiao is the greater of the two and just continue to overshadow Floyd. Manny by knockout early of the bout or later of the fight.

[abner]

Morgan
if your argument with regrds to PBF's win over DLH is that the fight was at 154 where oscar was more effective where the result is a split decision, well how about PBF's win with JMM? where the guy was bloated as compared to when he fought pacquiao at the weight he is more effective? i returning it back to you, how about if pacquiao ight delahoya now at 154 and PBF fight JMM at 130-135? PBF didnt even honor 144 when he came in at a heavier weight of 146. did you watched pacquiao-cotto? can you picture out if DLH and PACquiao figth at 154 now? dlh will be floored by the 4th. paquiao's win with cotto destroyed the argument that PBF defeated DLH, and thats by split decision. manny has yet to touch 154 yes, but if he so desired to go up i doubt if the result with DLH would be much different.

[Noel]

"Of course he will. But no way he lands like he did in his last three fights."
I agree, Manny will have a tough time nailing PBF with a solid punch.
"Mayweather's much too elusive. And he won't run the way Cotto did when Pacquiao found some success, nor will he settle in and wait for the end like De La Hoya did when he figured out Pac-man was actually pretty damn good."
True again. But we don't know yet how effective Manny's gameplan will be. Freddie and Manny seem to have the right gameplan for every fight, I don't see them not have a good one for PBF.
"Instead he'll stalk behind a stiff jab, belt Pacquiao to the body and solve any puzzle the Pac-man presents him."
PBF will have to throw 600-700 stiff jabs to keep Manny at bay, but what about the power shots Manny will land? Won't Manny's attacking style throw off PBF defenses? Manny throws around 700 power shots. I bet in this fight he'll have to throw more to land more. PBF will work like never before to keep Manny at bay. Boxing has favored the aggressive fighters in most of the big fights when it comes down to the score card. PBF will have a lot more to prove than Manny to get the dsecision don't you think? You still think PBF is gonna prove you right?

[Bronxboy]

yo....! brother.....morgan.... floyd is a good defensive fighter....you said he fought dela hoya at 154lbs... in case you forget......2 years ago manny was fighting at 130lbs.. so at that point would you ever think manny can fight a true welter weight..... let see if you are analysis work for this one.....a lot of genius critics Failed because of Manny.....hope fully your not one of them.........this is what makes the fight so entertaining....

[Duke]

Here we go again guys. You really aren't tired of digging up you bank accounts and placing your bets against that Pac-Man from the Pacific. This guy was destined to be one GOAT just like Armstrons, Ali and the rest. The guy is still priming like a diesel engine. So much with the technical analysis. A GOAT is always an exception. Maybe the trainer matters, and Roach knows exactly what a shoulder roll is in details with his ward Toney. Come on, show the Pac-Man's Army the money. Finally we'll be underdog in betting for the last time and the greatest time before the new GOAT retires! Unlike you guys, we enjoyed this phenomenon to the fullest sense of the sweet science.

[Danny Huelva]

If we will simply base our assessment of Pacquiao's chances of winning against Mayweather in Pacman's recent fight against Cotto then I believe Pacquiao will not win against Money May. When Cotto applied his defensive skills in those later rounds, we would find out that Pacquiao's landed punches seemed to narrow down to a number less than what he received from Cotto. This is not a good thing to know if this kind of scenario goes along with the fight with Mayweather.

Yet it's not even a good thing to underestimate again what Pacquiao is capable of achieving. For if we track down his development as a fighter, we might also realize that Pacquiao was always doing something new and surprising every time
he step again into the ring.

[triggerman]

if PBF is that good then why the Hell does he want the fight to be at 154lbs & using a 10oz gloves??? He saw how Pacquiao performed at 147 so he feels it will be better if he bloat him a little bit more... make him a bit slower so he could beat him with his speed(???) like what he did to JMM... Is this another way of saying he doesn't REALLY want the fight to happen?

a bloated Hatton @ 147
a bloated Marquez @ 144 (PBF cant even make the agreed weight)
planning on beating a Bloated Pacquiao @ 154???

We all know that PBF wont accept to fight Pacquiao at 145lbs or wont even try to... why not at 147lbs for the WBO Welterweight belt!!!

[Zachary Stefan]

Morgan,
Considering how spot on you were with the last fight(Paq vs Cotto), I shouldnt disagree with you here- but then that would be boring. So, here goes nothing.
I like Paq, because I like him in the later rounds. Whereas Floyds speed and defense will certainly be the story early. Floyds not getting him out of there, and in my opinion Floyd doesn't have the power to hurt him- so after 3 or 4 frustrating rounds for Paq, his speed and relentless pursuit will suffocate Floyd.
They are both facing, in their opponent, someone with skills they have yet to encounter. The difference between a career fighting guys right in front of him vs fighting Floyd is considerble- but Floyds hill to climb is steeper. He can out point Paq, and avoid him, and look good while doing so, but Im betting while he will do just that for a portion of the fight, that its not something he can sustain. And after one clean resounding shot, that shakes or hurts Floyd, and he realizes he's in there with a killer, the fights over. If Floyd has to come to him, then the advantage goes strongly to Paq. So, I'm calling Paq in a 10th round stoppage. Zach

[XFACTOR]

I am a very big Pacquiao fan. I know he can defeat Mayweather no matter how good a defensive guru Shameweather is. He can roll, duck, expose his back whatever but he'll still get hit by one, two, three, four combinations.

but the greatest thing that concerns me though is the fact the Pacquiao is running for office in May 2010. I am a local politician myself and I tell you people, it would be very difficult for Manny to focus 100% on his training. He has to run a campaign, think about strategies. He should start campaigning right now because he'll be up against an entrenched politician!

I love you Manny, but my God you should have taken this fight in December next year where you'll be totally focused on the fight!

[Kitts]

Hi Morgan,

Very good analysis, i like it. Just one thing to ask you. Could you please give me one fighter that Mayweather has faced before like Pacquiao 's fighting style including stamina? Mayweather jr defensive syle is very accurate on a class B & A(?) fighter but A+ fighter like Pacquiao, I don't think so.