Mayweather-Mosley is the true superfight

Let's get this out of the way first:  "Who R U Pickin" is a ridiculous name for Saturday night's 147-pound showdown between former pound-for-pound king and hall-of-fame trash talker Floyd Mayweather and ageless, relentless welterweight legend Shane Mosley. 

 I mean, I get it. It's a bout between two champions with impeccable credentials, one matchup that's bound to elicit discussion, speculation and predictions from boxing fans everywhere, but it doesn't capture what's really at stake here. 

If the folks at Golden Boy were that hard up for titles they should have just called me and I would have provided several options...for a small freelance fee (hey, the write game is a business just like the fight game).

Why not call it "Legends Collide" or "At Last" or " Legacy"?

What's wrong with "Pound for Pound," or " Who's the Man?" or "Finally"?

Nothing. 

But for one reason or another a spectacular matchup is saddled with a pedestrian title.

So who am I picking?

More on that later, but first let's understand that Mayweather-Mosely is 2010's superfight.

I know there still exist plenty of conspiracy theorist who still believe the whole Clottey-Pacquiao-Mayweather-Mosley series is really a glorified publicity tour designed to build interest in a Pacquaio-Mayweather/Mosley megafight later this year.

Problem with that theory is that these pesky facts keep undermining it.

It's a fact, for example, that Manny Pacquiao isn't interested in the USADA drug testing Mayweather and Mosley underwent on the way to this bout. So if Mayweather defeats Mosley, the disagreement over drug testing that derailed Mayweather and Pacquiao in December would once again stand in their way.

It's also a fact that Mayweather has a rematch clause in his contract with Mosley. So if Mosley wins -- and he has a chance, even at 38 -- he and Mayweather will dance once more, a project that will tie both of them down until early 2011, leaving Pacquiao without a partner.

And finally it's a fact that this bout is a stand-alone superfight, one that deserves headlines and will generate huge pay-per-view numbers even without the prospect of the winner facing Pacquiao. This is a fight hardcore boxing fans have visualized since before Pacquiao even won his first belt. And while it may only have come together because Mayweather-Pacquiao fell apart, this bout is much more than a consolation prize.

It's a fight between Mayweather, an undefeated welterweight who claims he's better than Ali and Sugar Ray Robinson and Mosley, the resurgent veteran who when speaking to "Fighting Words" in January made a logical case for why the road to the pound-for-pound crown goes through him.

In short, it's the highest revenue, highest stakes and highest skill level fight we're likely to see in a while, so we need to savour it.

So who am I picking?

It's tough. 

 Mosley's 38, but as Chi Ali pointed out years ago -- age ain't nothin' but a number.

Sugar Shane looked young and hungry in dismantling Antonio Margarito 15 months ago, and I've always thought that he, more than any other fighter, possessed the skill set to cause Mayweather big problems: long arms and a strong jab, an uncanny blend of speed and strength, and concussive punching power.

The problem for Mosley is that Mayweather is not Margarito.

We all know that styles make fights and that while Mosley looked spectacular against Margarito, a straight-forward slugger who showed little interest in defending himself, he has struggled against skilled boxers.

While we're discussing facts, the fact is that Mosley has been outboxed not only by Winky Wright, which is understandable, but by Miguel Cotto, which was damn near unforeseeable.

So when I look at this fight I have to wonder how Mosley will deal with the smartest fighter of a generation, a guy with just as much speed as Mosley but with better footwork and defense, the skills to fight inside (ask Ricky Hatton) and the smarts to solve any fighter set in front of him.

 

A lot of observers point out that Mayweather has never faced an opponent with Mosley's skills, strength and experience, and that's true.

But neither has Mosley faced a fighter as savvy, as smart, and as surprisingly strong as Mayweather is.

We've seen how well Mayweather adjusts to bigger, stronger opponents -- witness the boxing lesson he administered to Oscar De La Hoya at junior welterweight in 2007.

But we've also seen how poorly Mosley adjusts to top flight fighters who commit to matching wits with him. Cotto is a fine and surprisingly versatile fighter but as a ring technician he's no Floyd Mayweather, and if he could befuddle Mosley with a jab and a little movement you really have to question how Mosley will deal with Mayweather's impressive array of skills.

So who am I picking?

I like Mosley's chances. He's one of the few fighters alive who can match Mayweather's speed, but he also has a good enough jab to keep Mayweather distracted and the power to flatten anyone in the division. If anyone can beat Mayweather, it's Mosley.

I just don't think he'll do it.

Mayweather is just that skilled and that smart. He'll move without running, stick Mosley with his own jab and slow him down with body shots. He'll fight on the inside just enough to keep Mosley honest, but over the course of 12 the defense, ring generalship and savvy will prove to be a little more than Mosley can handle.

So who I am picking is Mayweather by fairly close decision.

And who are you picking?

Weigh in on the blog, and fight night join me on Twitter: http://twitter.com/morganpcampbell

Comments

[Jason Abelson]

Great work, once again, Morgan.

Um, the only lesson I remember being handed out in 2007 was by Oscar, who was the first opponent to trully befuddle Floyd, before tanking - as he was want to do in most of his big fights - in the second half.

The blueprint to confusing Mayweather was drawn up by Fredde Roach and only partially implemented by Oscar. Shane is old school (as is Floyd). He's ready to go fifteen, nevermind twelve.

Aside from the jab and movement that Oscar showcased so well against Floyd, Shane also possesses the Zab Judah-like speed that had Mayweather reeling when those two met up in 2006. And, like Oscar, Judah is wired to call it quits somewhere in round 9, whereas Shane finishes.

Having said all that, while Floyd is a certifiable narciscist outside the ring, he's a savant inside the ropes. If there is a fighter capable of making the adjustments aganst a fighter like Mosley, it's Floyd.

Should be a great GREAT fight.

I like a Shane UD in a classic.

BTW this fight will do more business than any three UFCs this year.
MMA is the dying sport.

[LatinoPorVida]

Great blog Morgan very well put together!

It's true Margarito ain't no Mayweather. Mosley has problems with boxers I even had him losing to Mayorga prior to that last minute KO. It's like Floyd said in a recent interview he will be sharp and smart. I believe that will be the key to beating Mosley.

I am actually one of those FIGHT FANS who has been anticipating this fight even before Pacquiao came along so glad you pointed that out:)

I also like those titles you got especially "Finally"

I agree with your prediction I also got Floyd by a close decision.

I wouldn't be surprised though if Mosley pulls the upset because it's like you said if there's one fighter that can beat Floyd it's probably Sugar Shane.

[dlbrows]

I love Shane. Love him. But I think he's just going to push Mayweather to an awe-inspiring level. Mayweather by UD.

And word is the Nevada Athletic Commission is seriously considering using the testing used for this fight in other super fights. If they do then Pacquiao wouldn't be giving in to Mayweather's demands and the fight is far more likely, no?

Either way I'm focused in on this fight right now. I think it's going to be amazing. I can't wait.

[Mark]

Good article Morgan...I myself can't wait for this fight to happen. I'm picking Floyd to win a fairly close but still clear decision. I also agree, Pacquiao vs Mayweather just won't happen because of the random blood testing issue, but unlike many others, I'm not upset as I still say that Pacquiao is not in Mayweathers league.

[Michael Athill]

Excellent write up as usual and I love the Chi Ali reference .. got me going back to the golden age of hip hop.
Back to the sweet science, I can't stand Mayweather but I think he might have this one .. I just wish this happened earlier in their careers. Pretty Boy is a walking stereotype so I hope that Mosley will drop him but its going to be a tough one.
Fingers Crossed.
I'm also praying that this is a setup for Pac-Mac Vs. ?

[cccor]

Good summary... I think the key will be Shane's heart, and the fact Floyd's never faced someone this dangerous. Shane has the power to break through, and think he will.

Shane by UD or late TKO.

[Sunny]

MC, great write up - reading this post-fight is even better!

[John S]

Hi Morgan,

Many of the recaps published on the fight focus on how Mayweather dominated Mosely. How credit is due to Mayweather because Mosely was listed as a consensus top 5 pound for pound fighter which would silence the critics of his past opposition.

What is most interesting to me is that people are giving a ton of credit to Mayweather and ignoring the possibility that Mosley may be a shot fighter.

Mosley went 16 months without a fight and is 38 years old. He beat Margarito which at the time was huge but in light of the hand wraps scandal, that taints the significance of the victory as Margarito may not be nearly as impressive as people had thought after he beat Cotto. He didn't look impressive against Mayorga and got outboxed by Cotto. And at 38, he doesn't have the stamina to maintain his handspeed and punch output throughout the fight.

I didn't watch the fight but is it possible that Mayweather beat an old fighter?

And on a side note, there's a very interesting parallel with Jake Shields recently beating Dan Henderson. Henderson and Mosley were both extremely impressive against their last opponent, both had a long layoff, both put Shields and Mayweather in serious early trouble and both could not make the adjustments needed to win the fight. And both were 38 (well, Hendo was 39 but semantics)... and both may be shot fighters. It'll be interesting to see the next Mosley and Henderson fight to determine if Mayweather and Shields beat top opponents or simply had their way against old shot fighters.