Fortune .500

So we gave Chris the morning off. Really. You should see him. He needed it. I think he wanted some time to do some research after yesterday's JABS posting. So you're stuck with me. Let's do a quick state of the Leafs Nation and then I want to throw it back to you.

Mark Zwolinski has the latest on the ever-changing lines (maybe more on that later):

Antropov-Allison-Ponikarovsky
Domi-Stajan-Wellwood
Tucker-Lindros-Kilger
Steen-Sundin-O'Neill

Still waiting for a shot, and still looking like a huge bust, is Czerkawski. Over at the Sun, Al Strachan shoots down the Allison trade rumour, so let's just move on from that.

Regulars Denial and Gary (BTW, it's Nieuwendyk) started a good discussion yesterday in this space, with Gary kicking it off with a quick look at some of the changes from 2003-04 (O'Neill, Lindros, Allison, Khavanov in; Mogilny, Roberts, Nieuwendyk, Leetch out) and a question:

Overall I like the offseason moves. So why are the Buds just over .500?

They're 9-7-0-2. For 20 points in 18 games. In 2003-04, they were 45-24-10-3 for 103 points. So why are the Leafs barely above .500? And did we really expect them to be better this year?

Gary suggests that should the team defence improve, the results would too. And thanks, Gary, for leaving Berg out of it for once. It's not all his fault.

Should we blame this "new NHL"? Maybe the Leafs are just too slow.

Or, consider Denial's angle:

The leafs are OVER ACHIEVING at the moment, and they can absolutely thank the new rules for the fact that they're over 500. In fact, I don't think that there is another team in the NHL who has benefitted from the new rules than Toronto. ... The leafs are riding their power play right now, that that power play is riding the new rules.

A good point. Leafs have the second best power play and we know that with the penalty parade most of the offence comes a man up.

So I throw some questions at you today. We're a quarter into the season. You've watched the games, read the stories, listened to the interviews:

Why are the Leafs are hovering at .500? Is this the best they can do? Is it Ed Belfour's glove's fault?

Send your top-3 ways the Leafs can improve, and I'll put together our shopping list throughout the day. Then we can check off the items during tonight's test against the Rangers. (SW)

Comments

[David Johnson]

The Leafs have played Ottawa 3 times, Montreal 3 times, Philadelphia twice and Carolina twice. That's 10 of their 18 games against teams who are a combined 48-12-5. The Leafs are responsible for one third of those teams 12 losses going 4-4-2 in those 10 games and doing so mostly without their best player and captain Mats Sundin. All things considered, being 2 games above .500 ain't all that bad.

[Arthur]

How to improve the Leafs? People need to remember that the opposition this year - Philly, Ottawa, Montreal - have all improved while Toronto basically replaced a few parts on the team. They are bound to backslide when Philly adds guys like Richards, Carter, Knuble and Forsberg, or Ottawa adds Heatley and Hasek. Our all-star acquisitions? A grab-bag of clubhouse cancers, a topic that so far the Toronto dailies have skirted around. Expect the slamming to begin if the team is struggling by Februrary.

You want a "top-3" list to improve the Leafs? I only need one: fire Pat Quinn. Before you haul out the stats showing how we've made the playoffs so many years in a row, have always won under Pat Quinn, etc., well - this year's (struggling) team is showing all the same hallmarks of previous Quinn offerings: a team unwilling to play team defense, a team willing to allow more shots per game than their opponents (look it up - under Quinn, the Leafs are in the basement in those categories each season. Show me the last Cup winner that was 25th in the league in shots allowed), and a team willing to allow their goalie to bail them out.

And Eddie, stalwart though he's been, isn't up to the challenge anymore. He still shows flashes of brilliance, but it's unfair to expect him to pull the Leafs out of the fire every single night.

No boys, the fish stinks from the head down. If you want a new team philosophy, you have to start with the coach. (Let's not forget Rick Ley - how many young D-prospects has he run out of town as a result of his "tutelage"? No - don't look it up, I don't want you crying on your keyboard. *cough, Markov, cough, Dempsey, cough, Smith YAKK!*)

This team is going noplace. Time to throw Quinn under the bus, and install a coach who will let the kids play (Come ON, Patty! Do you really think Stajan's place to develop is on the fourth line between Kilger and Domi?! Really?!), and gel for next year.

Put away the parade route plans, kiddies.

[SuburbanHockey]

Okay, I'll lay off Berg for today. :)

The fact is, the defence is worse off this year than in previous years because of the lack of speed, skill, and good positional play. I think the new NHL is a wash for the Leafs success - yes, they have been able to score more on the PP because of the new rules, but they also give up way to many penalties because their defence (ummm, McCabe, Klee) is so used to running the old school interference.

In fact, if the Leafs were able to run the usual clutch-and-grab, they wouldn't need all those goals every game to win, and they wouldn't look so iffy when they take a lead into the third period - just look at how many leads the Leafs have blown this year. Does anyone think that would happen in previous years with a veteran team like this one? At some point in most of the past 18 games, they actually had the lead.

I agree with a previous post - Rick Ley is a problem. His defensive style is not suited to today's game. The blame doesn't lie with him completely though. The Leafs must be more serious in scouting and drafting skilled puck-moving D-men for the future, something they have neglected in the past. If it stinks from the top down, it also stinks from our own end out. Colaiacovo is a good start.

As for individual players, I have no real problem with Kilger. He's only a -2, he plays a solid back-checking game, and he knows his role on the team. Same goes for Stajan, who has good hands, good hockey sense, a +4 rating, and good creativity in the offensive end. My problem lies with Tucker. He's a -10, his skating is suspect, and he is completely uncreative with the puck. When Tucker comes into the offensive end with the puck, 9 times out of 10 he will just dump it in and chase after it, despite the fact that he is now too slow to get the puck. In the new NHL, Tucker has to make a decision: is he a creative skill player, or a corner grinder? Now that we've had that reality check, we need someone with creativity to play with Lindros's power forward abilities. There is no way Tucker should be on that line. Tucker is closer to Kilger's skill set than to Lindros's. Once he realizes that, he may actually become a more effective player.

[Gary]

If you believe the glass is half full, the Leafs are struggling with their team defense because there are so many new guys they have yet to gel as a unit, i.e. the "trust" Quinn talks about between the defensemen and the forwards is not there. If the glass is half empty the defense just does not have the footspeed to stop the speedy guys. Half full they are over .500 mostly without Sundin. Half empty they have been mediocre even since he has returned. Half full says Steen and Wellwood are a big improvement over Reichel and Renberg, half empty says Khavanov and Kronwall as regulars are a major downgrade from Marchment and Leetch. The bottom line is it's still too early to determine how much water is in the glass.

[Carla]

'The leafs are riding their power play right now, that that power play is riding the new rules.' - denial

A question: take away that one flukey Atlanta game when they scored 7 PP goals against Atlanta goalie Frosty McFreeze (thank you, Chris), and what would the PP% standings look like? (You'll have to work it out yourself, 'cause my math skills stink.)

[cy]

Carla, i did run those numbers without the Atlanta game's PP totals back on Nov 1 (perpahs you were still lounging around in your Halloween costume and missed it ;-) ) so i've done the numbers again, just for you: they're 22-for-103 not counting that game, which is 21.4 per cent, fourth in the league. still not bad.

[Matt]

I really take issue with the comment someone made implying the leafs are benefiting the most from the new rules - I think this is a ridiculous statement and I seriously question the person who wrote it.

The leafs are a slow team - which hurts alot in the new nhl. They are still kind of old - which also hurts in the new nhl. They take a lot of penalities - especially now - which really hurts in the new nhl. Belfour can't play the puck like before, that hurts them with the new rules.

In fact the more I think about it, other then the power play doing good - which isn't even really related to the new rules other then for now there are more penalties called - pretty much every way that I look at it the new rules actually HURT the leafs.

I really don't know how you can say it helps them, let alone helps them MORE THEN EVERY OTHER TEAM??? I just don't understand the reasoning for that at all.

[Carla]

Thanks for figuring out how the Leafs would be in the PP% standings without the Atlanta blowout, Chris. I guess my Hallowe'en mask must've been skewed the morning you reported those adjusted stats... I missed it.

BTW, I gotta say something about that Al Strachan article... I notice that he doesn't quote a single person in that gossipy "story" about Jason Allison's alleged antics and JFJr's alleged trade attempts. How does his editor let him get away with that nonsense?? I realize that selling papers is the bottom line and controversy can can accomplish that, of course.

[Ninja]

Anybody care to notice Wellwood and Steen are outscoring Philly's super rooks? Sure, the Flyers got Forsberg, and playoff series beat you to a pulp defensemen, but our rookies can hang with Richards and Carter.

Ottawa, well, they've had too much of a head start drafting like omnipotent beings. They'll come in second for the President's trophy. Montreal is playing way above their potential. You can't win every game by 1 goal. And now with Kovalev out, we'll see just how long they can stay at the top of the Northeast.

re: what's wrong? I'd like to see Quinn skate the bejesus out of the them. Too often the Leafs start periods flat-footed, take stupid penalties, and give up leads or fall behind.

Individually, Steen needs to remember what got him to the top line. He is constantly looking to dish the puck to Mats, which is understandable, but he won't keep getting the opportunity if he doesn't skate with the puck when the situation dictates.

McCabe needs to realize his first reponsibility is to protect his own end of the ice. Well. Hit somebody when they are coming down on the rush. Legally. And work out with Kaberle how the both of them can be threatening on the powerplay. Support the guy that feeds you. It'll be mutually beneficial. I swear.

And keep Allison off the ice. Even my girlfriend knows that.