Now saving: B.J. Ryan

Jays have announced the B.J. Ryan signing. E-mailer Mark Freedman has already started off the thread:

"Stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid, stupid. You don't pay a closer that much. They break down and are replaceable."

Well yes, no one has ever paid a closer this much ($47 million for five seasons is the figure in all reports). No one has overpaid one this much, either. And yes, they do break down -- but so does any athlete. As for replaceable, the alternative here is incumbent Miguel Batista, who isn't your prototypical power reliever, and has already been mentioned in trade talk involving Texas and Milwaukee for position players. He's replaceable, as were the parade of pretenders that preceded him in '03 and '04.

There's nothing wrong with this move, even if a power hitter or ever another starter are more pressing lineup concerns. It's the price you pay for playing in the big sandbox.

Over the jump (yeah, I've finally decided to start using it), there's more, including bits from the press conference.

Over at Batters Box, Pistol has a posting on elite relievers' performance at the same age as Ryan (he'll be 30 on Dec. 28, that is), and concludes:

Given that Ryan has no real injury history and has had a relatively light workload over his career (381 innings) I don't think the risk involved with a 5 year contract is as worrisome as it might appear at first.

My take: J.P. Ricciardi has chosen to overspend for the best reliever available with his first off-season move -- and no wonder. The Jays have been out of this free agent game for a while -- Ryan is their biggest free agent signing since Roger Clemens eight years ago. $47 mil' goes up in blinking neon lights. This is the ante. They're playing again. That's a lot more than you could say for some winters past.

Some highlights from the press conference:

Ted Rogers, owner, on Ryan: "This guy's bigger than I am. Paid more, too."

Ricciardi: "B.J.'s representatives asked us if we would consider doing a five-year deal. For us, we didn't think it was that big of a deal. For us, we feel like we have a lot of comfort for the next five years, knowing that someone in his prime is going to be pitching for us."

Ricciardi on the highest-paid reliever tag: "Billy Wagner hasn't signed yet, so that might only last a few days. We did a lot of work B.J., and we targetted him as a guy just coming into his prime in that role. And we think that to bring him here we were going to have to step up to the plate, get involved with some of the teams that are out there bidding for his services -- and if it wasn't us making him the highest-paid, it was going to be someone else making him the highest-paid. I think this is a testament to Mr. Rogers that he gave us the money, he allowed us to do this. This is one we didn't want to come in second."

B.J. Ryan: "I wanted to be in control. I didn't want the market to dictate where I was going to play. That's one thing we really talked about and before everything was said and done I kind of had my way and I picked Toronto, then everything got figured out financially." 

Ricciardi on this signing in the big picture: "For us, we want people to come to Toronto because they want to play here. ... What we sold to B.J. was the fact that we have a good family atmostphere here, we want to win, we have commitment from ownership to win, and we are going to win. ... You have to remember that Paul Molitor and Jack Morris and some great free agents chose Toronto at one time. Maybe this is the start of a bunch of guys following them."

One more from Ricciardi, who had nothing new to say about prospective free agents A.J. Burnett and Brian Giles, or the status of incumbent closer Batista: "I think it's going to be an active off season for us, not only through the free agents but through the trade market too."

Comments

[Peter Barnes]

What isn't being mentioned is the fact that the Jays now have a much better chance of signing a proven starter, given that they know they will have a solid closer finishing for them
Wins vs loses are everything to a starter and I doubt that Batista provided the level of comfort that a proven starter would want.
After all.. a few blown saves on a guys win/loss record could amount to millions when a new contract comes along.

[Fred]

It is a lot of money for a guy with one really good season but Miguel Batista earned $4.75 million in 2005 and he did not inspire confidence in the starting rotation. Someone like B.J. Ryan may be the sort of player you need to settle the starters and give them the confidence that they need.

I mean, there's nothing worse than seeing a starting pitcher pitch well and leave a close game only to see it evaporate in the 9th inning. You really need to win those one run ball games to keep up the winning spirit.

Hopefully, B.J. Ryan can maintain his recent statistics. Obviously then he would be well worth it.

[Owen Williams]

Accepting the argument that JP overpaid, I would still rather pay too much than pay nothing at all. There is no reason to increase budget if you aren't going to use that budget to improve your position in the market. How often are marquee free agents signed to deals described as bargains? This is the type of contract teams hand out when they don't want their closers to be ineffective former starters who don't have the mentality or makeup to close.

Plus ... let the Jays run up the market on closers. It doesn't mean the market on position players or starters has been run up. And the Jays don't figure to be competing to sign a closer any time in the near future. This is one position where once you have your guy, closers and their future costs are not an issue.

[Draper]

Fans and writers need to relax. The Jays are either not spending enough, developing talent for too long, or in this case, spending too much. If the Jays signed Hoffman or any other closer to that money, fans and writers would applaud because they signed a proven closer...that is an older closer who may or may not be able to repeat as a dominant force. Sorry, but I guess the Jays could have signed that other 200 pound left handed flamethrower that was available...oh wait!

[Darren McPhee]

The Blue Jays had to make this move for a few reasons - and I, for one, applaud them for it; and for three very good reasons:
1) Miguel Batista is better as trade bait than as a closer. The Jays need offense and Batista is their most marketable commodity to get another bat in the line-up.
2) They want to attract free agents to Toronto, and this sends a message that the Jays are players in the free agent market. They had to start off with a bold step like this if they have any hope of getting players like Burnett and/or Giles.
3) They made a statement to the fans. Sure, in reality none of this was done for the fans, but as a self-confessed Jays fan it's good to see this so-called small-market team finally stepping up and making a real commitment to contend.

[Steve Polo]

I think B.J was a very thought out signing for J.P Ricciardi and the Blue Jays. If you look at the big picture we needed someone to secure our 1-3 run leads going into the Ninth Inning. Batista or any other body for that matter was not able to close those hard fougnt games. I believe that getting a closing picture that has experience in the American League and has proven himself(at least for one year) is a overall good signing.

[Mike Charlton]

I believe it is too much to pay a closer who has only had one legitimate season. The money could be better spent on making sure there is money to resign current players. Too much of a premium is made of signing big name players when they are free agents. The bidding war causes players to be signed at too high a salary. The Jays should spend the money on player development with their middle payroll. Most large free agent signings are unsuccessful and unlike the Yankees, Red Sox or Mets the Jays won't be able to buy their way out of mistakes.

[cy]

Darren, you're correct about making a statement to the fans. this team has been irrelevant during the past few offseasons because there's been so little to report, and the perception has hardened that the division is just too tough in terms of signing free agents.
One thing that struck me out of today's press conference was that before anyone had a chance to talk, the Jays flack at the mike was announcing special "B.J. Ryan flex-paks" on sale for next season. (I hope they last longer than Bill Caudill flex paks.)

[Eric]

I think everybody agrees we overpaid for this arm. Was it the right move though? The Yankees and Red Sox aren't quite as strong as previous years. There's a crack here for Toronto for that shot. Overpaying BJ will probably drive up the price on Burnett, who's willing to pay Burnett at higher prices? We are. We can trade Batista for a bat and use whatever is leftover from that increase to sign another one. If Burnett signs, we would have a top pitching staff with a good 1-2 punch and then the haymaker.

[Mark Freedman]

Here's my problem with the deal. Closers are commodities. They break down. Rarely do they string together consecutive good years. When closers move teams, they tend to start sucking. This closer is 30 years old. And 5 years is a long time. You think he's going to be throwing 95+ in the 5th year of the deal? This is overpaying for a closer who hasn't proven himself over a period of time (like Rivera or Wagner). And it's not like by getting him the Jays are weaking a team in front of them. They are taking from the Orioles. The O's are going nowhere. If they stole Rivera, that's a strategic move. This is wasting money. Yes the alternative is Batista, but the Jays problems are more than a closer who blew 6 saves. If the Jays were a closer away from winning the whole thing (i.e. 94 wins and needed an extra 6 wins for 100 to win the division), then it kind of makes sense. The Jays needs are more pressing than a closer. They have enough trouble getting a lead, never mind holding it. The Jays need power at the corners. Paying $4-5 million for 1B with power and a LF with power would have been the money move. And then unload solid but replaceable players like Frank Catalanato and Shea Hillebrand for prospects, a closer or money. Bastista might yield a decent player in return, but that doesn't discount that sheer cost of acquiring a player the Jays didn't need.

[Sam]

Ok, I really dont understand the reason for the signing. The Jays are always behind in games, therefore there is no use to sign a closer to a amount like that when he wont get a chance to "close" many games because the Jays wont be leading any games with the line-up they have. The Jays needed to concentrate their money on starting pitchers and offensive batters, rather than on a closer.

[Matt Goff]

Lets get the BJ 'agreed' comments out the way. The Jays overpaid - agreed. He has had only one season as a closer - agreed. Pitchers can get injured - agreed. The first is the economical reality of the AL East. The second is something that the Jays cannot control (although his life time stats are pretty impressive in general). The third - yes of course, but they might also get run over by a bus - you cannot think like that as JP has said. So, Its a good signing for the following reasons: 1) Its a positive signal to the other players the Jays are flirting with, 2) It arguably gives the Jays the best bullpen in the AL, 3) As one comment already suggested, it will help the starting pitchers with their stats which is important for attracting someone like AJ - (yes AJ is only a .500 pitcher, but i would like to see how many of his no decisions came due to blown leads. In a similar vein, how many losses came due to poor run support. Career W/L stats only tell half the story) 4) And most importantly, the guy has some great stuff - everytime i saw him come out to the mound last year it was 'sigh, we aren't scoring off this fella'. Its a good move.

[Sean Bovaird]

This deal makes sense for all the right reasons. As the only Canadian team trading on the loonie, the Jays are going to have to overpay to lure the kind of talent we need to take us back to the World Series. If you look at this deal, it paves the way for the Jays to sign Burnett (for probably much more than this deal) and also Brian Giles. ... I was alive and well with the Jays in the early 90's when they spent a lot of money on players like Clemens, Morris, Henderson, Winfield, Molitor and what did all that get them....2 World Series rings. Equate those purchases into the 2005 market and what do you have.....hopefully more World Series rings. Stop whinging about the money and hope that the Jays have a few more tricks up their sleeves and return REAL major league baseball to Toronto - don't worry, Ted has got lots of it !!!!!

[David Johnson]

Few teams ever win anything without a reliable bullpen and that starts with a reliable closer. Houston lost in large part because their closer didn't get it done. Is $47 million over 5 years too much? Probably, but if it means having a chance to get to and win in the playoffs, it is worth it. Would you be confident with Batista coming out of the bullpen in a one run game in the 9th with a playoff spot on the line?

[Paul Raphael]

What is overpaying when it comes to professional athletes? If the message JP is sending is "we want to win" rather than we just want to compete, then I think this signing is important. If this signing leads to other "premier" free agent signings, then the message is being heard. This strategy gives me hope that in 2006, we will be following a team challenging for the playoffs all season. I hope that some additional free agents will be signed. I hope some players will be added/subtracted through trades. I want to have real hope that the Blue Jays can win the World Series. As a Blue Jays fan, I want to look forward to the upcoming baseball season with a championship being an attainable goal. I am no longer willing to accept an 81 game winning season as the ultimate objective. I want to be optimistic!

[Richard Armstrong]

My comments on the deal:
Like has been said it is a good move for some more reasons.
1. It has got the american sportscasters finally talking about the Jays.
2. It is a bet that BJ will go the way of Wagner and Rivera (how did they do intheir first year as closer?
3. It will be an investment in the franchise as it will place the Jays as serious contenders.
4. AJ will probably sign now

[Joe Herbert]

First thing I'd note is that BJ was highly positive on the Toronto org. Earlier press quotes of other teams' exucutives said they had the impression that Toronto set the bar for BJ. This is similar to the apparently very high impression that Toronto made on AJ Burnett, whether he signs here or not. I think JP Ricciardi deserves a ton of credit for making Toronto seem like an appealing alternative, and a huge thanks to the Doc too for pitching in on Burnett.

I think Toronto has other more pressing needs than an upgrade at closer. Hitting and a #2 starter are the obvious ones. But we needed a closer as well, and JP made a decision that it would be better for guys like McGowan to not be pressed into closing. I think there was also a sense that the choice was spending 8 this year on BJ or 5 on Batista. In that light, it's 3 million this year for what should be a huge upgrade.

Is it too much? I'm confident we couldn't have had him for less. The real question is whether we'll still be able to upgrade where we need to. If we can't because of this contract then yes, it was too much, but we can't say that until we see. For now, I'm staying optimistic.

Thanks for making the City more attractive JP!

[Shaun L]

Last time I checked, you couldn't win a baseball game without scoring runs. Even if BJ is a great closer, he won't get the opportunity to record 50 saves like Rivera because we'll rarely be playing with a lead. The Jays need hitters. Batista blew 8 saves last year. If we had BJ Ryan last year and he blew zero saves (obviously wouldn't ever happen), then we'd still only have won 88 games, finishing well back in the AL East and Wild Card.

[Steven Sparks]

I think the B.J. Ryan signing is outstanding........because I'm a Cleveland Indians fan. I was having a heart attack when I heard the Indians were offering $32M for 4 years. Thank god the Jays got us out of that mess. NO RELIEVER is worth that much and especially not over that length of contract----and the Blue Jays gave it to a guy with all of one year's experience. This is going to skew all of free agency, which, hopefully, will cause the Indians to stick to the path and let some of their minor leaguers fill in the holes they have. I'm sure this signing will improve the team, but B.J. is still going to be watching the playoffs on TV in October. That money could have been spent much more effectively. This is like jumping into to an auction when the bid is at $50 and screaming $5000.

[Ruben Calheta]

This deal makes no sense!!! Yeah, we are a better team today with BJ, but... Does anyone remember Carlos Delgado? The Mets are looking good with him playing 1B. We could have offered some prospects and eaten that contract. Why the hell is everyone going crazy over Burnett? Our pitching staff is pretty good! We need a 1B/DH (Delgadoish) and an OF (GILEISH). JP wake up and smell the wood!!! Durazo would be an improvement over Hinske...Giles over Cat and that right fielder...HE SUCKS SO BAD, I FORGOT HIS NAME!

[samir]

In my opinion the key issue is opportunity. If the jays didn't spend the money here, where else? Combining the team's needs with the attainable talent, this deal makes sense. This move must be viewed in conjunction with the inevitable dealing of Batista. By and large, the combination works. As far as the dollar figure, as a fan, I can't say I really care. It's not like BJ's salary is two-times "fair market". The figure in question really amounts to maybe $2-$3mm a year. You can't get much for that nowadays and you certainly cannot get a difference maker.

[Steven Dykstra]

Finally, the Blue Jays are telling the world they’re back.
J.P. has worked diligently to duplicate the Oakland/Minnesota model for building a contender — years of organic growth (with the corresponding wretched growing pains) combined with locking the right youngsters up with long term contracts prior to their arbitration years (e.g. Vernon Wells). Now J.P. has entered phase II, spending money to blend the right mix of free agents into the lineup.
B.J. Ryan is the first shot fired in phase II. As you mentioned, his signing sends a strong message to the rest of baseball that the Blue Jays are serious. They appear to have enough money to fire two or three more shots, as well. A rotation anchored by Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett, backstopped by Ryan should excite the fans.
Some people have commented that Ryan’s contact is absurd for a reliever. Again, the symbolic value of his signing cannot be underestimated. On top of that, he has been a dominant reliever in the league for a couple of years now. Pitchers who strike out many, walk few and keep the ball in the ballpark are invariably successful in the major leagues. Ryan struck out 100 batters in 71 innings last year. That’s the sign of a rare power arm. That’s Billy Wagner territory. Ryan struck out almost 4 times as many batters as he walked. Anything over a 3:1 ratio is outstanding. He gave up less than 1 homerun per nine innings—again, outstanding. As far as I’m concerned, the stats say that B.J. is far, far above average in every important indicator of pitching success.
Ron Shandler, the fantasy guru, has done a great deal of analysis on what makes an excellent stopper. His theory is called TOG (Talent, Opportunity, Guile). It’s clear that Ryan has the talent. Many pitchers, however, pitch very well, but never get the opportunity to show their stuff as a true stopper. Last year, Ryan got thrown into the fire (after having pitched extremely well in a setup role the year before) and responded like a trooper—which brings us to the final category. We have all seen it, the pitcher with the 98 mph fastball that melts down in pressure situations (think, "Wildthing"). I would say from last year’s stats, Ryan showed he had the guile, the tenacity, the stones to face down the best in the game and slam the door. He converted almost 90% of his save opportunities last year—lockstep with best in the game, including Mariano Rivera. He has the talent, and when given the opportunity, he showed the heart and guile required to thrive in a tension-filled role.
I can’t guarantee it, but I doubt he’ll end up a one-year wonder as a closer. In my view, the Blue Jays just got their next Tom Henke—a dominant closer that will strike fear in the heart of opponents and, probably, most importantly, the type of pitcher that will allow Jays fans to say, "we made it to Ryan in a save situation--this one's in the bag." We haven't had that type of safety net in years.
And, if he helps us recruit a few more top free agents, he might just get a chance in the near future to close a few playoff games. Let’s hope, anyway.

[Richard Young]

I think its simple. JP would look stupid if he didn't grab a big-name player off the market this year. Compared to other years, this market looks pretty lean.
Batista would work well as trade bait, as would Lilly for that matter.
If Ryan lives up to expectations (and I'm skeptical he will), they will have an awsome bullpen, comparable to the White Sox.
With that said, they need some bats, and bad. However, John Ford Griffin looked pretty good in September. They may have the bats they need in the system. I hate to see Cat or Johnson go, but they need power out in left field. As for first base, nobody really knows what Hinske can do because Gibbons always platoons him.
Ryan will help this team, but until he turns into a power hitter and plays DH between his starts, this team is going nowhere.

[Derek Ma]

I think this is a strategic move by the Jays. What better way to sway Burnett to our staff than landing a high quality closer, not to mention one who is years younger than wagner or rivera, and who is a lefthander, a rarity these days. With the confidence that the back of the bullpen will bring, the starters will work harder, the offense will hustle more, and they'll know that they'll be able to lock down the game 90% of the time, a far cry from the last 4 years.

If the rumours about Batista being dangled for a bat, then the move makes more sense, and they can open up the payroll enough to try and lure Giles or Burnett. Plus, if they can land Durazo,trade Hinkse, and sign Hudson to a long term deal, we have a ballclub that has the potential to compete with the Aneheims, Red Sox, and the Yankees.
I think this is will a very profitable off-season for the Jays, and I can't wait till the next blockbuster is announced.

[Alex Chu]

consider myself a sports fan but didn`t really hear about BJ Ryan until i heard the Jays were about to overpay him. I hope he doesn`t turn out to be an Adrian Beltre and his one good year behind him. Wonder if the Jays would be better off signing players that might give them a lead going into the ninth inning. Ryan can`t be that useful if the jays can`t manufacture enough runs. Having said that, Ryan appears to be a significant upgrade over the inconsistent Batista.