Jays: Who's in, who's out

The scoreboard so far on this busy Blue Jay winter:

IN: B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett, Lyle Overbay.

OUT: David Bush, Gabe Gross, Zach Jackson.

Brad Wilkerson: Why the fuss for this former Expo?

PERHAPS IN: Brad Wilkerson.

PERHAPS OUT: Alex Rios, Orlando Hudson, Miguel Batista.

I'm fine with the pitching, although as I've said here before Burnett scares me. More unconvincing is the offence the Jays would net out of this -- it's an upgrade on paper, but not a huge one -- and there are other reservations too: Hudson's defence, for one, will be hugely missed if he's indeed on his way.

And David Johnson, a believer in the 21-year-old Rios, asks where the love for Wilkerson comes from. I'd love to hear some answers for that, too. Here's some numbers to ponder, all of them 162-game projections gleaned from baseball-reference.com (click on the player for a link to the whole file):

          HR--RBI--Avg--OBP--SLG--OPS--Fielding avg 

Overbay   15---73---.285---.373---.450---.823---.993

Wilkerson  21---66---.256---.365---.452---.817---.980* (OF only)

On the one hand, those aren't overwhelming numbers. These are hardly the intimidating bats the Jays require, and both of them are 28, so it's iffy they'll improve -- at least Wilkerson, with a 32-HR season in 2004, looks capable of being something of a bopper (and although he gets his share of walks, he also has been among the top four in the NL in striking out the past four years). Overbay looks like the definition of average, but as Geoff Baker points out, he may be a little more than that:

What will cause some Jays fans and baseball analysts to begin their debates is whether Overbay can really help push this offence up to a level good enough to challenge the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees. A lot will depend on whether the Jays got the Overbay who clubbed 53 doubles in 2004, or the one who dropped to 34 two-baggers last season.

On the other hand, Ricciardi did point exactly to these kind of players on his radar screen once Brian Giles was out of play. And at least in terms of OPS, both are upgrades over the incumbents (Rios, .711; Hillenbrand, .775). Remember, too, that J.P. is on a mission and he's not done yet, so this is a pretty fluid situation.

Over at www.battersbox.ca and Blue Jay Way, they're debating these very matters. For a Milwaukee perspective on the Overbay deal, check out Al's Ramblings, and the major leagues' website has been pretty good at keeping up to date.

Comments

[David Johnson]

I don't know if Rios can be the bat the Jays need, but for me Wilkerson seems to have proven that he isn't. Yeah, he is a solid player but I am not sure he is what the Jays need. What the Jays really need is a Delgado type player. Someone who puts fear into opposing pitching. Someone who can be an anchor in the lineup hitting cleanup and be counted on for 30-40 HR, 100+RBI. Wilkerson is not that guy. Rios isn't either, but we don't have to give up Hudson and others to get him. I'd rather have Kevin Mench from Texas. Younger and more power.

[trystan wallen]

the trade for Overbay is rediculous! David Bush has a way bigger upside than Overbay. Why not go for a player like Soriano with those type of players. With Soriano they would be set at the at least the fifth sport in the batting order and imagine the one two punch of Soriano and Hudson in the in field? By getting Soriano the wouldn't have to pick up another expensive bat of the likes of Piazza or Thomas.Koskie is pretty much gone, hopefully for Jeff Weaver.Weaver would be great in the third or fourth spot in the rotation and that would allow them to drop Lilly in a salary dump to a team needing pitching. Can anyone say Kevin Mench?

[Tarun Joseph]

Hey everyone is talking about the big bat from Cincy Adam Dunn coming to TO. Yeah the guy can jack it out of the park on any given night but he also whiffs mabey the most in the majors, almost like an upgraded version of Hinske. What are the chances Jays go after lesser known Austin Kearns who has had injury problems but could be traded for less value than Dunn?

[Craig]

Whatever happened to the premise of strength up the middle? Russ Adams seems like he's 50/50 that he actually makes the throw to the 1st baseman on the fly and if they get rid of Hudson, SS and 2B become very average. Does Ricciardi really believe the incremental offensive run value he'd gain by playing Hill over Hudson would offset the defensive run savings afforded by Hudson? And I still believe Hudson will develop as a hitter, he's too athletically gifted not to.

Whatabout the intangible benefit of having a pitching staff knowing that a ground ball to the infield is an out rather than an adventure. There's something to be said for an infield that reduces the tension level for a pitcher, especially with the location dependent guys that the Jays have now (Towers, Chacin, Lilly if he's still around).

Further to that, I wish they'd play John McDonald at short. He's not much of a hitter but I can't remember the Jays having a shortstop with a more accurate, quick arm. Decent range for a guy who looks kinda dumpy for a middle infielder too.

As for Wilkerson, I don't like to see any MLB player whose stats dropped off significantly last year--the first year of very strict steroid testing. That makes me worry about Overbay a little too. Wilkerson is that weird combination of "walks alot and strikes out alot". A hitter who waits for his pitch and counts on hitting it solid. His strikeout totals indicate to me that he's just not in the upper echelon of physical talent. It would be unreasonable to compare him to Barry Bonds but I think it does point to the theory that Wilkerson has already been as as good as he's going to get.

[cy]

Tarun, Kearns' name hasn't been mentioned in connection with the Jays, although Cincy would clearly trade him if the right deal came along. I'm not sure, though, that he's got any upside. He is 25, but like you said, he's been injured, and his OPS has tailed off the last two years. As for Bush, Trystan, he may well end up a No. 2 starter some day, but that day's a way's off -- the real prize for the Brewers was Jackson, one of three young lefties the Jays have. AS for Weaver -- please! You're bringing back nasty fantasy league flashbacks! Perish the thought. Craig, I'm with you totally about Hudson. The comfort level a good infielder brings to a pitcher is not easily measured, and I hope Ricciardi thinks hard about it. BUt remember too, Hudson was a Gord Ash player, and his possible replacement Aaron Hill is Ricciardi-reared, so maybe we really are seeing the last of O-Dog.

[Ken Warden]

I am not sure what the Jays or Ricciardi specifically has against Alex Rios but I see him as a budding star. In many ways he reminds of Shawn Green 10 years ago. Many teams could have had Green for next to nothing and the Jays had all but given up on him. We all know what happened. What the Jays are now shopping for is not an upgrade on Rios. Give him another year and I think he will blossom!

[Werner]

You are NOT going to get someone to replace Delgado's numbers - not if you don't want to spend 10M a year. I really don't know if there are any 40+ homer sluggers out there and available right now.
All you can do is get some guys that can consistently put the ball in play with runners in scoring position - and if they have the potential to knock it out of the park 5 times a month, great. What's better in your lineup - a few guys that get a lot of hits, or a single guy that hits 30 homers? I dunno.
I think a guy like Dunn would be good, but I like the hustle that Reed Johnson brings to the team. O-dog would be a shame to give up, given his defense. Nomar or Piazza would be a veteran presence that would probably be beneficial in the dugout and clubhouse.
I don't see the point of replacing Hinke, HIllenbrand or Koski with guys that bring exactly the same thing to the table.

[Tim in DC]

Just though I'd throw my two cents in here.
Wilkerson played the entire season injured, has been yanked between the outfield and first base and has been forced into the leadoff spot, for which he is not suited.

If he can land on a team where he stays in one position, bats sixth and stays healthy, he has major upside.
I'd love to see the Jays land this guy . . . moving out of RFK will add 15 HRs to his total.