Coaching by the computer

Now this is something that comes as no surprise, given the rise of computer-based statistical analysis in baseball and football: a scientist at the University of Indiana and two business partners have developed a computer model designed to take the guesswork out of NFL coaching decisions:

ZEUS is designed to do what a coach needs to do during a game but can't -- calculate the consequences of a decision before he calls the next play. Accept the penalty or decline it? Challenge the official's call or not? Go for it on fourth down or punt? Go for one extra point or two after the touchdown?
(snip)

"The core model replicates, with amazing accuracy, the play-calling and statistical outputs of typical NFL teams," Bower said. ZEUS can also be customized for the offense and defense of a particular NFL team and its opponent. Then, with the capability of performing more than a million game simulations in a matter of seconds, it can assess critical play choices on their relative merits.

So what's a fan to do when the computer-coach's play call fails, despite being statistically the right move? Of course: Fire the computer!
(Link from Robot Wisdom)

NHL playoff roundtable, Part II

We're wrapping it up with our roundtable of blogxperts, after starting with Part I yesterday, and just to familiarize, the lineup is comprised of Tom Benjamin, Paul Kukla, Chris McMurtry, Eric McErlain (follow that link and take the Off Wing Stanley Cup Challenge) and James Mirtle. Picking it up where we left off:

JABS: The turnover this time amounts to five teams from the last playoff tournament, including the No. 2 seed in the east (Carolina) and two others (Rangers, Buffalo) that didn’t make the playoffs last time around. How did these teams manage to turn it around so spectacularly, and do they look like major players to you?

MIRTLE: I said it at the beginning of the season, and I still think it holds true: The East is a crapshoot.  (Which is part of the reason I said the Hurricanes would make the playoffs.)  In the West, you've got teams that everyone knew would be strong and would battle for the division titles: Calgary, Detroit, Dallas and to a lesser extent San Jose and Nashville.  In the East?  Ottawa is the only team people knew would be up there, with Philadelphia coming in a distant second.
Much moreso than in the Western Conference, I think the No. 8 seed in the East has a great shot at dethroning the No. 1 team.  Teams like Montreal, New Jersey and Tampa Bay at the bottom of the Conference really aren't all that much weaker than anyone at the top.  I wouldn't be surprised to see both Carolina and Ottawa out after the first round.

BENJAMIN: Buffalo doesn't surprise me at all. I (wrongly) picked them to make the playoffs in 2003-04 and I don't think they could help but take a leap forward. I think everyone has been surprised by Carolina and New York.

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Weight: His experience essential now in pointing the way, says Chris McMurtry.

McMURTRY: The remarkable thing about the success of the Sabres, 'Canes, and Rangers this season is that they've all gone about building a contender a different way. The only thing they have in common (besides the fact that I didn't pick any of them to make the playoffs back in September, showing how valuable my predictions were) is that they put a tremendous amount of faith in a goalie who had not proven himself to be a capable #1 NHL netminder. Lucky for them, all three have responded wonderfully.
The Rangers built around a superstar, the Sabres assembled a strong team from 1 to 20 for dirt cheap, and the 'Canes mixed young players with wily veterans suited for the new rules. For me, Jim Rutherford is executive of the year in the NHL. He signed Cory Stillman and Ray Whitney to bargain basement deals and laughed all the way to the bank when they thrived, stole an all-star goalie from the Ducks, and brought in an excellent defenceman in Kaberle for next to nothing. And even though neither have had huge impact, adding Mark Recchi and Doug Weight in the second half will really help down the stretch drive.

KUKLA: Carolina is all about chemistry.  Rutherford did a great job adding the finishing touches and some players are having career years - note Aaron Ward and Rod Brind'Amour.  But I do think their goaltending is not playoff-tested and the injury to Cole will be felt when the playoffs start.
Karmanos has a lot of pride riding on his team, he has watched from afar but is taking the winning to heart.  I hope he isn't too disappointed if they lose early and reverts back to "Well, no one picked us this year so overall, I consider the season a success."
The Rangers are hard to figure.  The start of the season they were an entertaining group to watch, now they look tired and rundown.  If Lundqvist comes back at full strength, he may carry them through a round, but I don't see them going far.
I see teams catching up with the Rangers next year, unless they can add some size to the defence.  They need to get physically stronger in order to avoid another fade-out in the future.
The Sabres were built for and are one of the new NHL prototype teams.  Speed, scoring from three lines, and a bit of depth helped them to avoid prolonged losing streaks and therefore should be one of the favorites in the East.

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Lundqvist: Might carry Rangers a round, says Paul Kukla.

McERLAIN: While I might have some questions about Martin Gerber and his ability to bring a team all the way through the playoffs, I don't think you're giving Carolina nearly enough respect.  Sure, Tampa Bay and Montreal are stronger than the low seeds out West, but Carolina is just so stacked down the middle, while both the Bolts and the Habs have been prone to protracted brain farts for significant stretches of the season -- just the sort of play that could return at any moment without warning.
I'll be happy to admit to some bias here, as I just like the way Carolina plays the game.  Peter Laviolette did the same thing on Long Island, and the folly of Mike Milbury was on full display this season as the strength of Laviolette's system proved to be well suited for the changes we've seen thus far. Know this: They're more fun to watch than any team run by Ken Hitchcock or Pat Quinn, that's for sure. . .
Out West, Dallas is the team that's ripe for an upset.  Marty Turco posted a save percentage this year (.898) almost 20 points lower than his career average (.915) -- never a good sign heading into the playoffs.  And don't forget all those points Dallas piled up courtesy of the shootout, something that inflated their point total.  As much as I like the shootout, there's a huge element of luck involved, and it isn't the kind of luck Jussi Jokinen is going to be able to import into a playoff OT.
Elsewhere out West, I did think Anaheim could do some damage, but not with Calgary and Kipper standing in the way -- he really is that much better than anyone else in goal.  In a way, Ducks luck is as bad as Nashville's.

McMURTRY: Of the three, I think the Rangers are the only one who I would not say are legitimate threats to go all the way to the finals, just because I'm not sold on their defence. But even they have to be looked at as a dangerous opponent just because they have the most dominant player in the world on their team.

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Turco: Ripe to be upset, says Eric McErlain.

BENJAMIN: Hockey has always seen the league divided into about five groups - call them Elite, Above Average, Average, Below Average and Bottom Feeders. The new CBA is designed to eliminate the top group and the bottom group. If that happens - and I think it will - teams will be able to go from one group to the next in a single bound (or slide). A few above average teams will catch the breaks and look like they are elite for a season. A few below average teams will see everything go wrong and they will be bottom feeders for a season. If that is the case, spectacular turnarounds (and spectacular flameouts) will be the norm.
To me the question is whether spectacular turnarounds are a good thing for either the business of hockey or the game. Gary Bettman certainly thinks it is good for the business and he might be right. It's always been too hard to get good in this sport. I've had more than 35 years of experience watching a team trying to get good without real success. Since I was a Red Wing fan before the Canucks came into the league I've been waiting for a Cup for a decade longer than any Leaf fan. My team has never won. In a 30-team league, that experience could turn out to be normal. The sports entertainment business is about selling hope, and hope has always been a tough sell in hockey.
Still, Bettman might be miscalculating again. Hockey is a zero-sum game. Every spectacular turnaround requires a corresponding spectacular crash and nothing kills revenues like failed expectations. The new system may end up giving more teams more hope to sell, but will also surely create more disappointment and disillusionment. The business might be best served in the long run if they figured out how to sell hockey and let the hope take care of itself.

JABS: Maybe you’ve been unfortunate in the teams you root for. I always hear about the NFL’s “anyone-can-win” system, but as a Browns fan, I can tell you it’s kind of hard to swallow. And badly run teams with poor management are always going to be up against it. Yet, I persist, just as you do. The distance between disillusionment and hope is just an Ovechkin, or a Romeo Crennel away.

KUKLA: Talk about losing football teams, I don't think the Cleveland Browns had their greatest player retire by FAX! A sorry state for my Detroit Lions.

JABS: Let’s turn to some of these matchups. James, in your blog (will insert link here), you’ve got the east going according to the seedings except for Philly, who you call over Buffalo. And I’m with Eric on this – I really don’t like the Flyers' style from where I sit on the couch, especially against these quick and exciting Sabres.

MIRTLE: As I said on my site, I think the deciding factor here is the Flyers' playoff experience. At the beginning of the year, I said they'd be one of the top teams in the East (I can't recall if I said No. 1 or not), and I think that, minus the ridiculous number of injuries they had, that was the case. If Forsberg does miss a lot of games, I'd side with a younger Sabres club, but the Flyers have young guys like Richards, Carter and Pitkanen that can skate with anyone Buffalo puts out there.
How about this for a final thought on the series: Who shuts down Forsberg? He is, after all, one of the most dominant playoff performers of the past decade, and I think he could come up with a 11-12 point performance just in the first round. What Buffalo really needs is a Brind'Amour type who can ride him into the ground, but I don't see anything like that on the Sabres. (Buffalo may be able to run around the Leafs, but it's not going to happen here.)
What can I say? I like Philadelphia a lot, and I think they're an improved team from when they took Tampa Bay to Game 7 of the Eastern final in 2004. I think, if they get sound goaltending, they could win the Cup. (Then again, it's still a crapshoot out East.)

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Clarke: Here's hoping he gets swept, says Tom Benjamin.

McERLAIN: All that team speed in Buffalo has added up to some of the best special teams play in the NHL this season.  The Sabres were near the bottom of the league when it came to shorthanded situations (26th) and their penalty kill was the second best in the league, and is the best left in the playoff pool.  It was much the same story on the power play, where Buffalo was in the lower half of the league in terms of opportunities (18th), but still had the third-best power play in the league in terms of conversion percentage.
In a way, it's just like football.  It simply isn't the number of fumbles you force, it's the ratio between the number of times you cough up the ball and the number of times you cause turnovers.  Keep the ratio positive, and you can start to think about other things.  And in the NHL this season, few teams did that better than the Sabres.  If they keep it up, they'll beat the Flyers in 6.

KUKLA: Here it goes folks, Tampa over Ottawa in seven.  The Bryan Murray jinx and the "ups and downs" of Hasek will be too much to take.
I see the other three series going with Carolina winning in a tight seven game series.  Rangers continue with their slump and only pull out one win, with Weeks ending up in net because Lundqvist is not 100%. Buffalo will be too fast for the Flyers, and the Flyers will be playing who's in goal by the end of the series and Foppa will be a game time decision for about three games.  He is not close to his standard of play and I don't see him being the Forsberg of old in 2006.

McMURTRY: I see all of the Eastern Conference favorites advancing, with perhaps the Rangers over the Devils as the one upset possible. But if I'm placing bets, I'd go with Ottawa in 5 (too much speed up front for a weak Bolts D), the 'Canes in 7 (the best series of the four East matchups, but again, too much firepower), the Devils in 7 (despite the rabid fans, I expect it to be very boring on the ice), and the Sabres in 7 (should also be very good).

BENJAMIN: The only Eastern team I know halfway well is Toronto and a fat lot of good that does me now. I'm ashamed to admit I can't even make an informed guess about any of the Eastern series. I can make an informed guess about the Western teams, but I'm ashamed to admit it probably won't be any better than an uninformed guess.
  I like the Sabres because Tim Connolly is a nifty player who is lots of fun to watch. I think it's great that he's put his health problems behind him. He's a dandy. I hope they kick Flyer butt because Bobby Clarke is still the heart and soul of the Flyer butt. A sweep would be sweet.
Does that help?

JABS: Everything helps, Tom. I’m in something of the same boat, watching the Leafs most of the time. So I end up cheering for styles, as in the Sabres vs. the Flyers – put it this way, this morning I filled out an office pool sheet and it was an exercise in guesswork. But let’s look west now. Among the lower seeds in the conference, who’s got the best chance and who’s just going to end up happy to have been there (or not)?

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Forsberg: Tips the balance in Philly's favour, says James Mirtle.

KUKLA: My sure bet would be the Sharks over Nashville.  Too much chemistry going on right now in San Jose and Nashville will be hurt with the injuries to Sullivan, Zidlicky and of course the loss of Vokoun. Next would be Dallas over Colorado- The Stars will take advantage of the weak defence of the Avs.
The other two series are too tough to pick.  The play of Zetterberg and Datsyuk (game time decision for Friday's game) is the key.  Their previous playoff performance has not been up to par with their regular season play.  It all depends on those two and for those who question the play of Legace, how about the play of Roloson, he has to be the man for the Oilers to take this series.
Ducks and Flames will be an all-out battle, may the strongest survive!

McMURTRY: I'm the opposite of Tom in that I'm far less knowledgeable on that conference. But based on what I've seen, I think the Ducks have the best shot of all the lower seeds, just because they have a lot of guys who've been in the dance and are coming in on a roll. I expect that series to be terrific though, and it's probably a toss up. For the others, I can't see the Wings losing to the Oilers, so I'm putting them in 5. Dallas, who I'm taking as my Cup winner, over the Avs in 5 (Colorado's gonna be exposed big time, I think).

BENJAMIN: I can imagine a way that Edmonton could beat Detroit. They've got strengths and I think it's a good matchup for them. The Wings probably have too much for them and it will probably go wrong for the Oilers in the end, but I would not be shocked if that is the upset of the year. If that doesn't happen, I don't thnk there really can be an upset in any real sense of the word. I think Paul's right to strike Nashville on the injuries and Eric is probably right to favour the Flames over the Ducks because of Kiprusoff. But Anaheim is as good as their record and if I was Daryl Sutter, I figure I've drawn the worst possible opponent for my team.
There really isn't anything to choose among most of these teams. That's reflected in the standings and I think it will show up head to head in the best of sevens, too. The first round of the playoffs is always so great. Hockey fever peaks with 16 markets buzzing. Two or three of the series are sure to be barnburners. I'm ready to be surprised. Bring it on.

JABS: All well and good. But let's wrap this up with this final round: A Stanley Cup prediction, and a wish. Who've you got winning this whole thing? And who do you wish to win it? I'm sitting here really wishing that Buffalo can win the Cup, for a number of reasons -- and I think they a shot, but it's so small. It's the old head vs. heart thing.

McERLAIN: Picking the champ this year is as tough as its ever been. The real problem I see is that all of the top seeds have obvious weaknesses that could prove fatal over the course of the next 6-8 weeks. Over at my blog, I'm asking my readers the same thing, and Detroit is easily the most popular pick.
But tell me how Manny Legace is going to hold up in the playoffs when he only has five career starts lifetime? I've already said that as good as Dallas is, Turco is the weak link in the chain. Ottawa? Is Hasek going to come back at all? Can Ray Emery handle the load, even only for one round?
Still, my head says Detroit. But my heart wants Carolina to win it all. I always felt the Islanders did Peter Laviolette a bad turn when they fired him, and his methods have proven their worth with a team that wasn't even projected to make the playoffs. Carolina is fun to watch, and I think it would be great to see a second straight team from the Southeast Division -- the red-headed step child of the NHL -- win the Cup.
Like a lot of other hardcore fans, I thought the latest round of expansion was rushed, haphazard and ill-advised. But those teams in the Sunbelt are there now and they're not going away. Winning a Cup will cement the future of the franchise in Raleigh, and that's nothing but a good thing for the sport and the league.
BTW -- did you know that four of the last nine Cups winners (Colorado (2), Dallas, Tampa Bay) and eight (Colorado (2), Dallas (2), Tampa Bay, Florida, Carolina, Anaheim) of the last 18 finalists have come from markets that were part of the 1990s expansion/relocation movement?
Happened pretty quietly, didn't it?

KUKLA: All year I have been saying Detroit and San Jose meet in the WCF, which means the Ducks will have to beat the Flames in Round #1 for this scenario to take place. I see the Wings advancing to meet New Jersey, who will beat the Sabres in a tough seven-game ECF matchup. Wings win in six against the Devils - remember, "He who controls the puck wins."
My one wish for the SCF would be Wings/Canadiens, for the simple reason I would like to hop on a train in Windsor, travel to Montreal like they did in the old days, stroll by the old Forum, put on my best suit and take in the series like they did in the old days of the NHL.

McMURTRY: Heart with Ottawa, for obvious reasons. Living here, I know how passionate the fanbase is, and I can't imagine what it would be like if we were to get a Cup. Would be bananas.
Head with Dallas. I think they're too strong at every position, and I see the West as the weaker conference, so their ride to the finals will be a bit easier than whoever comes out of the East. By the time Ottawa or Carolina gets there, they'll be so beat up I'm not sure how much gas will be left in the tank. If it can't be Ottawa, Buffalo's probably my next preference, so I'm with you on that one Chris. Small market team, no real superstar, afterthought by most at the start of the year, in nearly fatal financial trouble as recently as a few years ago. I saw a lot of them this season against the Sens, and to see their growth from the team that got slapped 10-4 to a 100-point team has been quite impressive. It would be a wonderful story to be sure if they took it.

BENJAMIN: The only think that I'm sure about is that a hockey team will win. If somebody did not have to win, I'd figure nobody could do it. It truly is the hardest trophy in sports. I'm still picking Calgary to win it all because that's the team I would not want to play no matter which team I coached.
I'm hoping for the Ducks.

Bosh to re-sign with Raptors

The only question I have about this news is the timing: on the same day that Pat Quinn is fired, the basketball side of the MLSE operation is completely eclipsed.

Forget the Leafs side of it for a moment. Hockey is No. 1 here, and that's a given. But here's a good-news story for the junior-partner Raptors, the kind MLSE hasn't had in five years or so. Their biggest franchise cornerstone since Vince Carter agreeing to stick around for the long haul. The first major move for Bryan Colangelo, and it's a slam-dunk.

And it's buried under the usual Leafs avalanche. Welcome to Toronto, Bryan.

As for Bosh, he proved this year he's an all-star talent, no small leap upward. He's now the face of this franchise, which is another step up.

But geez, MLSE. Couldn't you have saved this just one day, and given CB and BC a chance to bask, instead of freezing in the shadows?

 

NHL playoff roundtable, Part I

It’s been a long wait since Tampa Bay won it all nearly two years ago, but the Stanley Cup tournament is finally back and, yes, so is one of these JABS roundtables we like to have around here. Joining around ye old virtual hotstove for this one, here’s the panel of blogxperts:

Eric McErlain began blogging in June 2001, and went full-time sports in February 2002 when he started Off Wing Opinion.  He can also be heard twice a week on the Podcast Bleacher Guy Radio, which he co-hosts with Detroit-based Rob Visconti.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Yep, it's that time again.

James Mirtle started his blog in December, 2004, while working as an intern at the National Post:  “I wanted an avenue to have a voice on all things NHL.  I'd recently talked to a few veteran journalists, CTV's David Akin among them, and they all raved about their blogs. I decided I'd sign up for a freebie at blogspot, and, well, that's where it is today.”

Paul Kukla started Kukla's Korner in July 2005, after starting www.breakingsports.blogspot.com in February 2005.  “I started blogging because I was totally miffed with the lack of coverage the CBA talks were receiving in the Detroit media. I just wanted to keep the hockey fans informed of what was actually going on, and the website took off from there.”

Tom Benjamin has been at Canuckscorner since September 2003, “but I've been annoying people with my opinions in various hockey forums for years. A blog was a natural step for me.”

Chris McMurtry started Hockey Country in July of last year: "The blog started out of my enthusiasm for the season once the lockout was ended in July of '05, as I needed a place to put all my disjointed thoughts on the Senators and the rest of the NHL. Having read other blogs, it seemed simple, and sure enough, it was."

So there they are, coast to coast. Let’s get this thing started.

JABS: Before we get into this year's playoffs, a couple of general, looking back questions. We're two years removed from the last Stanley Cup tournament. How did that lockout year away affect the way you went about watching the NHL this year? And what strikes you as the most noteworthy development, either positive or negative, of this  "new NHL" so far?

KUKLA: After covering the lockout on an almost daily basis, I was so pumped the puck was again about to drop.  Many questions were still remaining but around mid-December I accepted this is the future of the NHL, got rid of some of my stubborness on wanting to see old-old time hockey, and I now thoroughly enjoy most games.
The new NHL has become even more wordly, the development of future stars from Europe continues and enforcement of the new rules has everything to do with it.  Even though the game is Canadian and always, will be, the growth of the game depends on the "feeder" leagues in Europe.  Their style of play fits the NHL game as we now know it, so it is time to accept the game for what it is and will be. "He who controls the puck usually wins" should be the motto of every NHL team in the future.

McMURTRY: I think like everyone, once hockey came back, I realized all of the little things associated with the game I loved but had probably taken for granted. Stuff like 15 minutes of highlights to watch as I'm getting ready in the morning, something to talk about among co-workers when bored out of our minds, all the rapid callers who call for the coach’s head after every regular season loss. As great as junior hockey is, even in a strong junior market like Ottawa, it just can't compare to the NHL. At the same time, part of me also held the league to a high standard because I wanted to see if they kept their word as far as upholding the new rules and making a sincere effort to change the game for the better.
The most noteworthy development, for me anyway, has been the ability for teams most considered to be out of it before the season even started to emerge as contenders. Every year a few teams surprise us know-it-alls, but this season that seems to be at an all-time high. If you had Carolina, Buffalo, and the Rangers in the top half of the Eastern Conference, you're a friggin' genius. So in that sense, I guess they achieved the parity they talked about.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Farewell, Brett ...

BENJAMIN: I don't think the lockout affected the way I went about watching the NHL aside from the fact I watched less. The most noteworthy development was the changed standard of enforcement in the sense that it's had the biggest impact. Whether it is a negative or a positive depends on whether or not you like power plays.
I think it is about three years too early to agree with Chris on the subject of parity. This year we had twice as many free agents, but only because of the missing year. The free agents were still 31 years old for the most part. Nothing really changed very much on the player movement side. We won't see how the new CBA really affects the fan until the free agent age drops and the salary cap climbs.

McERLAIN: Having to go better than a year without hockey actually made me a lot more patient with some of the more profound changes, especially when it came to obstruction penalties.  If it had only been a few months removed from the playoffs, I might have gone insane on some of the nights that delivered nothing more than a parade into the penalty box and dueling power plays.
Most noteworthy development?  It had to be the changing of the guard.  Goodbye Hull, MacInnis, Messier and Stevens.  Hello Ovechkin, Crosby, Phaneuf and Lundqvist.  It feels like a very different league.  That was a big help here in D.C., as the dedicated core of fans knew that it was going to be a rough year for the Caps, and most of us simply concentrated on whether or not Alexander Ovechkin was going to be as good as advertised.  And when that did happen, it took a lot of the sting out of some of the beatings the team took this year.

MIRTLE: I think that, considering it had been so long since we'd had NHL hockey, I approached the season sort of refreshed.  Normally, you're watching Stanley Cup games into the middle of June, so that when training camps start less than three months later, it's not uncommon to still be a little “hockey fatigued.”
The most noteworthy development was that there wasn't the sort of backlash that baseball felt after its lockout. In general terms, the NHL markets that struggled before the lockout were still struggling, but on the whole, attendance was up. Even among many of the most jaded pundits, there seems to be a sense of optimism about the league's future. (NBC's television coverage has also been excellent, which is a revelation.)

ASSOCIATED PRESS

... Hello, Alex.

JABS: But James, I would submit there has been a kind of backlash, though maybe in Canada we don't feel it. I can't help but feeling, at least from what I've seen and read, that the NHL has taken a step back in the U.S. sports hierarchy.

MIRTLE: Canadians were over-the-moon this season.  The team with the worst attendance, the Oilers, had over 98% capacity.  The other five Canadian NHL cities were sold out every night.
As for the U.S., I'm not sure there was anywhere from which the game could 'step back' from.  Lower on the sports hierarchy?  Hadn't we always heard it was in tractor-pull territory already?
What I meant by the lack of backlash was the big gains in attendance in places like Carolina, Pittsburgh and, to a lesser extent, Nashville.  Those were the three teams with the worst attendance figures in 2004, and all gained at least 1,000 per game.  I'd say that's rather substantial.  The teams that did struggle at the gate this year — St. Louis, Chicago, Washington — can all blame the on-ice product — not the lockout.
It's a gate-revenue-driven league, so the best indication going forward that the league is doing well is the revenue coming in. Considering the salary cap is expected to rise $7-million for next season, I'd say that's the case.
Anyway, I don't want to make it sound like the NHL should be dancing in the streets. The problems that were there still are; it's just that there wasn't any of the backward movement I'd expected. For the most part, people just seem happy to have hockey back.

BENJAMIN: James is certainly right about both the ticket receipts and the NBC presentation of the product, but I don't think it is enough to make for optimism. The problem hasn't changed. It is a gate-driven league and the league only has so many seats to sell. If they sold every single seat - they never will - ticket revenue might go from $1 billion to $1.2 billion. Then what? They can get back to 2003-04 revenues very quickly, but they need American TV to grow revenues significantly beyond pre-lockout dollars. I'll believe hockey will turn big TV revenues in the US when I actually see the eyeballs on the screens in the US. Until then, I'm calling it a pipedream.

McMURTRY: I wouldn't even mention Nashville if I was trying to make a point about how certain U.S. markets have embraced NHL hockey post-lockout. After all James, in your own post about it, Nashville was averaging only 1,200 more this season than last, despite being in a playoff spot all season, bringing in a big name free agent, and being in the hunt for a division title for the majority of the year. They've had the 6th worst attendance. That's nothing to write home about. Sure, they stopped the bleeding and reversed the trend of sinking attendance, but that's still a market with a lot of question marks to me.

MIRTLE: I think that considering how poor that market is, drawing more than 14,000 fans is a fantastic showing.  There should have never been a team put there in the first place, but the lockout isn't what 'scared away' the fans in Tennessee.

McMURTRY: That's just not fair, James. Their first three years in the league ('98-'99, '99-'00, '00-'01), Nashville averaged 17,281, 16,660 and 15,824. So they have shown a willingness to watch hockey. Now, perhaps the novelty of the new building and a new sport wore off, but that market has shown they will go to a game. They're just not coming back even though the team is worlds better now. I believe they were one of the "out of sight, out of mind" markets hurt by the lockout. I'd be concerned if I'm Craig Leopold.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Is Nashville a viable hockey market? Mixed reviews.

McERLAIN: I'm getting tired of all the proclamations coming from north of the border when it comes to the American hockey marketplace.  Yes, Nashville is struggling at the gate, but to refer to it as a bad market that can't support hockey is wrong.  It's been more than a decade since GM opened a Saturn plant near Nashville and staffed it with folks who moved down from Michigan, something that gives the team a strong core of fan support to build on.
What Nashville needs is a strong playoff run followed by a sustained high level of play over a number of years.  David Poile and Barry Trotz are about half way there.  If anything, the folks in Nashville ought to be cursing their bad luck to lose Tomas Vokoun in the same playoff year they draw San Jose in the first round.
The fact is that the American sports marketplace is crowded to such a degree, that it's something of a minor miracle the sport draws at all.  Take a look at some of the other choices sports fans can spend their dollars on in Washington, where the Caps drew 13,000+ this season:
*A market dominated by the Washington Redskins, the only unifying cultural institution in the metro area.  The Redskins are always the number one story in the papers, on television and certainly on sports talk radio.
*The best dates on the schedule at the Verizon Center are saved for the NBA's Washington Wizards, depressing Caps attendance.
*If there is a second favorite sport in town, it's college basketball.  And with the emergence of George Mason, that makes four major college programs (Mason, Georgetown, Maryland, George Washington) that play within a 20-minute drive of Caps home ice.  The Caps actually share Verizon Center with Georgetown too, and GW's home floor is five minutes away by Metro.
*For the final month of the season, Caps ticket sales go head to head with the Washington Nationals, a team that gets mega-media treatment from the local press all Winter long.
*Finally, I shouldn't forget D.C. United of MLS, a team that on several nights during its history has actually outdrawn both the Wizards and the Caps.
When you think of it that way, the act of regularly finding 13,000 people willing to pay to see the Caps is pretty impressive.  And considering the way the game continues to grow at the youth level -- did you know that the starting goalie for Cornell was born and raised in Texas -- the future of the game in the U.S. is actually pretty strong.  As James noted, it isn't without its problems, but its strong nonetheless.

JABS: The rule changes, they have been pretty radical and yes, some nights, pretty frustrating to watch. I'm very interested to see how the new rules apply in the playoffs, where the "anything goes, let 'em play" mentality has been so ingrained that I see perhaps another level of adjustments in store, from the perspective of the players and coaches, and us spectators.

BENJAMIN: I don't have any doubts that the standards will be maintained unless (until?) there is a backlash from the fans.

McMURTRY: What "standard"? It's the end of the regular season and I still don't have a clear idea of what's a penalty in the new NHL, which is my main complaint. There seems to be no consistency to it all. And the problem is, the referees often appear to be as clueless as I am about the whole thing.

KUKLA: The one call I am seeing not made as much lately, is the one-handed stick obstruction, minor hook and weak slash or the other player grabs the stick under the arm and attempts to draw a penalty, and that is a good thing.  If a player can't skate through that, they shouldn't be in the NHL.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Lindy asks the question: What's a penalty?

BENJAMIN: I think about 50% of the calls are complete and utter b.s. I'll agree with Paul to the extent that this is an improvement over earlier in the season when about 75% of all calls were complete and utter b.s. The worst part about the standards is that eliminating the minor stick fouls has had almost no effect on scoring except insofar as they increase power plays. It does change the game but the result in my view is a kinder, gentler contest without any corresponding increase in real dazzle.
I could suffer through 10 penalties in a period with the Canucks, but I don't put up with it when I don't have an emotional interest. As soon as a parade to the box starts, I start clicking the remote.

JABS: The turnover this time amounts to five teams from the last playoff tournament, including (as of this writing) the (probable) top seed in the east (Carolina) and two others in the top four (Rangers, Buffalo) that didn’t make the playoffs last time around. How did these teams manage to turn it around so spectacularly, and do they look like major players to you?

(Part II tomorrow, as we look over the tournament and make predictions)

Other alternate awards

After yesterday's post on NBA Most Valuable Duos, it got me to thinking about the old, petroleum-based days, when putting out an alternative set of awards was part of the spring routine. One of them was the Executioner of the Year, which this year, really, ought to be retired and just handed to Isiah Thomas. Hell, it ought to be named for him.

But what about the NHL? There's no shortage of Executioner candidates this year. And what about other awards you'd like to see?

Over at Sports Guy North, Kent MacDonald is trying to decide his annual Rucchin of the Year winner -- a great idea, this, giving an award for the strongest coattail-hanger of the year, and Jonathan Cheechoo is the runaway leader.

In the NBA, I'm not sure what you'd call this -- the John Salley Trophy, perhaps, or the Phil Jackson Plaque.

Any alternate awards you can think of, send 'em along, as we ready for Part I of the NHL bloggers' playof roundtable.

A severe night of channel hopping

A bunch of logjams to be cleared away on the final night of the NHL. Randy Johnson pitching against the Jays. The Clippers – yeah, really, the Clippers! – against the Memphis nee-Vancouver Grizzlies in one of those lose-or-go-home games (I’ll explain later). What a night for a guy to have NHL Centre Ice, timeshifting and a working remote. I show up a little late. But I’m game and I quickly make up for it.

7:52 pm Alex Rios turns on a very weak looking Randy Johnson pitch that’s a little high and a little inside and not very fast – it doesn’t really do anything good at all, and Rios rips it into the third deck in left. This comes after Troy Glaus had homered earlier. You expect Glaus to do that sort of thing, but not Rios. Two thoughts: If this kid keeps it up, there’s an ingredient that any team needs to get to the clichéd next level: career years, and it sure helps when they come from young players who haven’t reached their ceiling. Second thought: Why didn't I take him in either of my leagues?

8:02 Switch over to Buffalo-Carolina, the Sabres up 2-0. Two of the NHL’s major surprises of this season. And here’s something these Leaf-saturated eyes haven’t seen too much of this year: fast, flowing 5-on-5 hockey, at least until Eric Staal goes off for crashing into the goalie and the Sabres are on the PP. The Hurricanes miss Cole – the Sabres look like they might be good enough to come out of the east with a few breaks. I really jinxed this one. Just as soon as I mention the joys of full-strength shinny, two more penalties come up. Martin Gerber – remember him, Canada? – makes three solid, standup saves and just seconds after wondering about the ‘Canes defence come the playoffs, here’s the best defence of all this time of year: A hot goalie.

8:11 Flyers still trailing 1-0 halfway through the second. A much more sedate tempo here with lots of scraping along the boards. Here’s one team I won’t cross the street to watch at playoff time.

8:12 Spoon “I Turn My Camera On” is now part of a Jaguar ad. *Sigh*.

8:14 Over to Rangers-Ottawa, the Sens up 1-0 in New York on a goal set up by a bad Rangers turnover in their own zone.

8:15 Commercial break in New York, so I’m over at Detroit-Nashville. The Wings are undeniably skilful, but it seems every time I’ve watched them this year I’ve seen the same kind of thing: fast, and quick, but the next time I see a bodycheck thrown will be the first time. I don’t think that’s going to play in the playoffs. I keep wanting to see evidence of dirt under the Red Wings fingernails. Where is it?

8:18 Back to Canes-Sabres, just as Biron makes a splendid reflex save on a tip of a point shot by Doug Weight. Sabres have the hot goalie too. I’m now convinced – they are sooooo coming out of the east.

8:23 The Canes announcer just talked about how the Sabres are creating good shots “off the dribble”. This is just a while after he talked about the “edge rush” the Sabres’ Grier managed as he busted in from the left wing.

8:24 The worst kind of Centre Ice moment: every game has a commercial on. How does that happen?

8:28 Alfredsson pops in a rebound on a PP, 2-0 Ottawa.

8:29 The Caps are up 2-0 on Tampa Bay with a goal 12 seconds into the second period.

8:30 Red Wings up 1-0, Draper putting in a rebound off a Mark Mauer setup. Back over to the Rangers game and they’ve scored, 16 seconds after that last one, and it’s 2-1. Lundqvist stops a breakaway. I phone my friend Donnie in Brooklyn, a fierce Rangers and Mets fan juggling a lot on his plate. “I’m watching three games,” he said. “Rangers are a much better team with Lundqvist than Weeks. I can’t see the Islanders wanting to do the Rangers any favours, and Jersey is losing too. But I can’t see all three of these teams losing, so they have to take care of their business.” Jersey? I lost track of them. I find them. He’s right. It’s 2-0 Montreal. “You forgot about the Yankees,” I tell him of the Jays game, now 7-4.  “I did forget about that one,” he says. “I’m taping the Mets. Don’t tell me the score.” Me and my friends, we lead such well-balanced lives.

8:38 I immediately go to the Score. Mets are losing.  I think of phoning Donnie back to tell him the score, then slam down the phone, but decide against it.

8:43 You can tell the Yankees are in town. The rotating advertising behind home plate is in Japanese, a nod to the vast television audience following Hideki Matsui. Chacin gets out of a jam and through 4 ½, it’s 7-4 Jays.

8:46 Hey, the Leafs! And just as I find them, Wade Belak is putting one into his own net then delivering a snootful of leather to a Penguin in front of the net. An own goal, and a 5-minute penalty afterward – great shift, Wade. Still, Leafs are up 5-1. They’ve got some serious momentum to carry them out on to the golf course.

8:50 Pee break. Decide to stretch it out, with Rangers and Canes in intermission, by gathering up the recycling and putting it out on the curb. A nice night. Fill up the dogs’ dish and water.

9:01 Another round of domestic chores completed, celebrate by pouring a couple of fingers of Grouse on the rocks. Back to the basement, where Montreal is up 3-0. Donnie doesn’t have to worry about Devils, it seems.

9:04 Gionta scores for the Devils. Okay, it’s on again.

9:06 Just as I arrive on the scene, Mike Fisher scores a beauty shorthanded goal, going deep into the corner on the left side, cutting back as Straka just waves at him – pathetic, that, including Jagr and the other defender not even bothering to come over to cover. But full marks to Fisher as he finishes the 1-on-3 with a deke around Lundqvist and it’s 4-1 Sens. There seems to be a definite class edge here.

9:10 Biron stops another breakout by the Canes. I tell you, this Sabres side, now up 3-0 – they’re going places.

9:11 A corner box tells me that Philly has gone ahead of the Islanders 2-1. If it holds, the Flyers will go from 6th seed to third on this final night.

9:16 The Canes are on the power play, last chance with five minutes to go and the top seed in the east just about gone for them. There’s a few boos in the house in Raleigh.

9:19 Briere slides a perfect pass to Afinegenov between two Carolina defenders, but Gerber stands up and turns his breakaway aside. Gerber’s been good. Biron’s been great.

9:21 JP Dumont ices it with a power play goal. I can forget about this one, safely content in the knowledge that the Sabres are going to the Stanley Cup finals.

9:22 Ottawa’s wrapping it up, leading 5-1. I’m just flipping now and end up at the Flyers, nursing a one-goal lead with a minute to go. Esche is punching Jason Blake in the head after he covers up.

9:23 Gagne empty netter. Flyers are going to win the division, Rangers take the apple, and Devils are down 3-1 going into the third.

9:28 Finals: Philly and Buffalo win, Rangers and Carolina lose. Ottawa’s top seed in east, Canes No. 2, Flyers No. 3 (for now, pending Jersey final), Buffalo No. 4, Rangers 5, Jersey 6, Montreal 7 (pending result), Tampa Bay 8 (losing to Washington 3-1 right now).

9:31 Over to the Jays: two on in the 7th, up 9-5, none out – they could seriously bust this one open. Lyle (Turn Me Loose) Overbay flies to centre, runner moves up from second to third. Must be a big crowd. They’re actually making noise.

9:35 Crazy Chacon wild pitch bounces 4 feet in front of Posada, scores a run, 10-5 Jays.

9:39 Back to Montreal-New Jersey.

9:42 Finally it’s Clippers-Grizzlies and all the Clippers need to do is lose -- for them, that's as easy as falling off a lottery. As the sixth seed, they will get home court over the division-winning Nuggets, who have the third seed but also an inferior record. As the fifth seed, the Griz would face Dallas, only two games back of top western seed San Antonio, but alas, the division winners get the top three seeds, so the Mavericks are fourth. Griz up by 11 after three quarters. None of it makes sense.

9:45 Back to Montreal just in time for another Gionta goal, so it’s 3-2 and the Devils are coming on. Don’t give the Rangers that five seed just yet.

9:49 Elias scores and the Devils have tied it! Two passes and Elias is beating 51 Montreal, goes in and from close in beats Huet. I rather doubt this Montreal sag job has anything to do with the score in Washington – 4-1 Caps over Tampa Bay, one point behind the Habs – but it won’t hurt them in the standings.

9:53 The Leafs, remember them? Up 5-3 with a handful of seconds left.

9:54 McCabe misses on a long shot from his own corner toward an empty net, his second try at goal No. 20. After the icing call, Quinn looks on stonily: Tomfoolery, thy name is Bryan.

9:55 (Eastern time) The Leafs season is officially over. Everybody exhale. Stand up. Stretch. Re-introduce yourself to spouse/significant other/dog.

9:55 Back to Montreal – just as the Devils have scored again! Langenbrunner finishes a 3-on-1 counterattack by beating Huet shortside. And with that, the Devils have vaulted from 6th to 3rd. For now.

10:00 Boos in the Bell Centre as the siren goes, Habs blow a 3-0 lead, Jersey comes back and finishes third in the east. Don’t count them out in the playoffs, either.

10:02 Jays win 10-5.

10:04 Grizzlies are up by 10 with five minutes to play. “Don’t tell me these guys don’t want to win,” says the excited Clippers announcer. “They’re playing hard.” Well, that’s Bobby Jackson (24 Mem) bringing the ball up with all the energy of a sunning garter snake. And that’s Sam Cassell on the bench, laughing – and why not? He has been excused from playing tonight, along with Chris Kaman and Corey Maggette. They’re all not-playing hard.

10:09 “Clippers haven’t led since the opening moments,” says excited announcer. Amazingly, Clippers are only down five with 2 ½ minutes to play.

10:13 “At least we’ve seen some spirit and some spunk,” says excited announcer. Good night, Clippers, assured of hosting Denver as Memphis wins the boobie prize of a matchup with Dallas. Good night, Rangers, now facing the Devils – except, they’ll start by crossing the Hudson.
And of course, good night, Leafs.

Final eastern conference seedings (unofficial):
1 Ottawa
2 Carolina
3 New Jersey
4 Buffalo
5 Philadelphia
6 NY Rangers
7 Montreal
8 Tampa Bay

Most Valuable Duos

It's the end of the season, which means picking awards, and nothing seems to stir the pot more than the perennial NBA MVP debate. Mark Cuban's making the case for Dirk Nowitzki (surprise). Bill Simmons figures it's Kobe. Chauncey Billups is The Star's Doug Smith's choice. I'd go with LeBron James for pretty much dragging the Cavs into the No. 4 seed in the east.

All of these names have something in common: they're so far and away the No. 1 player on their team that drawing distinctions between them is difficult. But what about those teams where the load is shared a little more equitably?

I've often thought that a Most Valuable Duo award would be worthwhile, and get rid of the Most Improved Player, or the Sixth Man Award. Call it the StocktontoMalone Trophy. Some candidates from this year:

Parker/Duncan, Spurs. Eva's squeeze has arrived as a front-line guard, his speed and smarts stepping into the breach when the unflappable, steady Duncan's feet started giving him problems this year.

Cassell/Brand, Clippers. Disclaimer: I haven't seen a lot of the Clippers this year. But I can read the standings, and I can see Brand has finally been recognized as one of the NBA's top forwards, while Sam Cassell has steadied them into the playoffs where they may well win a round, perhaps even two.

Wade/Shaq, Heat. Regular visitor and hoop savant Mark Freedman figures Shaq is nowhere near the game-changing force he once was, but he still averaged 20 this year and next to Wade, that's a pretty productive second option occupying a whole lot of space and the obligatory double-team in the middle.

Kidd/Carter, Nets. Carter still takes way too many shots and Kidd, whose career appears to be just beginning its descent years, doesn't make enough. The Nets are going well with the emergence of Krstic in the middle, but it's the chemistry between these two that has been their most consistent strength this year.

The winners? Steve Nash to Shawn Marion, Phoenix. Nash's superior service has already been well established with last year's NBA MVP kudos, but Marion's versatile star is perennially underrated. He's getting MVP mentions but there's no way he's going to win -- he may not even crack the top three. If anyone deserves an award like this, meant to recognize hidden talents and the fine art of the two-man game, it's Shawn Marion.

R.I.P. 05-06 Raptors

The Raptors finish their home schedule tonight, so let's just call this one the funeral post, a eulogy that recounts the season's Five Top Nights and Nightmares:

Nightmare 5: Kobe Bryant drops 81 on the Raptors.

Associated Press

Kobe Bryant: A Night(mare) to remember.

Nightmare 4: After looking like they were climbing out of a dreadfully deep hole, their midseason western road trip runs aground in Portland, when no one knows what to do at the end and they lose a very winnable game 96-94. Of all the close, clueless losses, this is the one I recall most easily (four days later, Kobe goes off in Nightmare 5 and within days, GM Rob Babcock is canned).

Nightmare 3: Vince Carter throws a dagger into the ACC night. Anytime VC comes back there's a sense of injustice in the house, but this was particularly so, and those RaptorsHQ guys really hit it on the head as they were hit on the head.

Nightmare 2: Maccabi Tel Aviv come in for a preseason game, and go out with a victory. Widespread ridicule ensues, including a mocking spot on the Colbert Report (that I haven't been able to find, unfortunately, but if anyone has the link, send it along).

Nightmare 1: Wrapping up a 1-15 November with a 26-point home loss to Memphis. Gaspipe night at the ACC.

Now for the happier stuff:

Lucas Oleniuk/Toronto Star

Bryan Colangelo: New face in town.

Night to Remember 5: Morris Peterson hits the game-winning shot a big shot as the Raptors win stirringly lose another last-second braincramper, this one to the Cavaliers. Still, a good night during his best pro season for MoPete.

Night to Remember 4: Charlie Villanueva drops 48 on the Bucks. For all the barbs Rob Babcock took, taking Charlie V was his one shining moment.

Night to Remember 3: Chris Bosh and Mike James take New York. Even if James is on his way out as a Raptor, there were a few nights where they made beautiful music together (and also a few where James ignored everyone else on the floor -- including Bosh).

Night to Remember 2: Bryan Colangelo arrives. Finally, the Raptors get it right. Now if only MLSE leaves him alone to do his job for the next three or four years.

Night to Remember 1: Kobe Bryant drops 81 on the Raptors. We finish as we began. Because it's history.

Weekend surprise II

Exquisite Boards of Canada, decent video (QT version here, other formats here; link from Robot Wisdom).

And to help plan the week ahead, go here.

I remember the Mechanic

Before riding off into the sunset of a long weekend, a little theme music to back a getaway post (except for the weekend surprise, that is, but you'll have to wait till Saturday for that).
When it comes to overhyped sports on TV, a good rule of thumb is the Four Days After rule, as in: what has stayed with you four days after investing some of your life in a sports event?

CHRIS O'MEARA/AP

Miguel Angel Jimenez: The common man's golfer.

Sports is the ultimate in-the-moment activity, whether you're participating or watching (or writing a weblog, actually, blogs being partly about immediacy). Thinking back on it, questioning it, checking for any little pieces of brain that remain -- I spent three hours watching the Leafs and the . . . Blue Jackets, was it? Who was that the Raptors started at centre against Golden State? etc. -- is a useful exercise in self-flagellation perspective.
So I applied the Four Days After rule to last weekend's Masters. And the result is: very little. It was as mundane and sparkless a sporting show as I've seen this year - but not a total loss. I do remember Miguel Angel Jimenez: the little pot belly, the yellow-and-brown colour combinations and the Naomi Klein approach to sponsorship, the baseball cap with the ponytail sticking out, the shoulders-back, chest-forward walk, the mild obscenity caught by the boom mikes as his tee shot on the 12th flew the green, his round falling apart. He looked like the guy who shows up midafternooon at Scarlett Woods, just coming off shift (his nickname is "the Mechanic") and hooking up with a group that's got a spot open.
Miguel Angel Jimenez, you're just regular folk -- common people -- and will be henceforth welcomed here: JABS' designated golfer/Google Alert.

One last look. Another year, another baseball season, and David Wells continues to morph into Brando's Col. Kurtz. Is it the end of the line for Boomer?

CHARLES KRUPA/AP

David Wells: "The horror . . . the horror . . ."

One last view. This was going to be the weekend surprise, but I'll put it up now 'cause it's that good: Mystic Ball. Just gorgeous. Big thanks to World Cup Blog for this one.

One last read. SI's Kelly Dwyer rates every NBA announcing team, giving a B to the Raptors (He gives higher marks to Seattle's Kevin Calabro, who I've always felt to be the best around, but a guy who's never been given the national platform he deserves). Meantime, True Hoop's Henry Abbott, who passed along the link to Dwyer's piece and thanks for that, has a great post on his day with Team Hollywood:

The regular coach is not here.
His name is Newt. By all reports, he’s a real character—someone who will say anything to anyone and is scared of nothing. In a pinch, Pete can coach instead.
This is not the real coach. And this is streetball. The players have a complex understanding of the game, but the coaching is unbelievably simple. This is an actual quote from Pete’s pre-game talk:
"Rebounds, gentlemen. Defense."
Here’s another one:
"Listen up: rebounds… defense… blocked shots."
And one more:
"REEEEEEEBOOUNDS. Ok? Can you get some rebounds, and play some defense?"

Breaking news. Another one via the World Cup blog: Iranian soccer star has two wives. Check that. He had two wives.

Sports around town. This didn't take first time around, but better late than never: In Brampton, the Battalion face elimination tonight, down 3-1 against the Barrie Colts. And at Humber College, it's the Canada Cup floorball championships.

Watching/not watching. Taking a pass on TV this weekend, with Mrs. JABS and I off to New York for a mini-vacation. Happy Easter, Happy Passover, Happy It's-Springtime-and-Long-Weekend (check whichever applies).