No. 1 in the draft - now what?

So what do you do now?

Small forward Rudy Gay may well be the best fit. I love Tyrus Thomas's game. Andrea Bargnani is apparently the fellow Bryan Colangelo loves above everyone, and I'm sure you can find someone on a bar stool willing to argue another case. It sure beats waiting on Babcock at No. 8, doesn't it?

Looking down the order immediately behind the Raptors, the question may be whether there is someone who wants to trade up -- and would be willing to give up a player to get there. I kind of doubt it, at least at this point. For one thing, there's the money factor. Why trade up in a draft where there's not a huge qualitative difference between the top picks, a group that numbers about a half-dozen?

No. 1, in this draft, may well be no different than No. 3 or even No. 4:

Portland, which had the league’s worst record at 21-61, was big loser in the lottery. Despite a 25 per cent chance of winning the ping-pong ball drawing, the Trail Blazers slipped all the way to fourth.
Trail Blazers President Steve Patterson believes his team will still get a good player.
“You may find a player with as big an impact at No. 4 or even No. 6 as you may at No. 1,” Patterson said.

 

Part of that is Patterson saving face, but he's also reflecting the general consensus. Here's the thing about it, though, that makes it valuable -- the Raptors, for the first draft ever, are dictating the terms. Even if they can't deal it, they're going to get their pick of players of some value. Given the list below, chances are he's going to be a good, maybe even great player -- if they keep the pick (and if he doesn't turn into Michael Olowakandi, that is).

Meantime, the honeymoon continues for Colangelo, who did his best last week to dampen expectations and now faces them run amok. It's his turn to make something of it. Played right, this is the biggest turn in the Raptors' fortunes since they came into the league 11 years ago.

NO. 1 PICKS OVERALL, 1985-2005

1985 Patrick Ewing, Knicks
1986 Brad Daugherty, Cavs
1987 David Robinson, Spurs
1988 Danny (D) Manning, Clippers
1989 Pervis Ellison, Kings
1990 Derrick Coleman, New Jersey
1991 Larry Johnson, Charlotte
1992 Shaquille O'Neal, Orlando
1993 Chris Webber, Orlando
1994 Glen Robinson, Bucks
1995 Joe Smith, Warriors
1996 Allan Iverson, 76ers
1997 Tim Duncan, Spurs
1998 Michael Olowakandi, Clippers
1999 Elton Brand, Bulls
2000 Kenyon Martin, Nets
2001 Kwame Brown, Wizards
2002 Yao Ming, Rockets
2003 LeBron James, Cavs
2004 Dwight Howard, Magic
2005 Andrew Bogut, Bucks

UPDATE: CollegeHoops.net has a mock draft up (first of many, for sure): 1 Toronto Tyrus Thomas; 2 Chicago, Andrea Bargnani; 3 Charlotte, LaMarcus Aldridge; 4 Portland, Rudy Gay.

Comments

[Aaron]

I personally think that LaMarcus Aldridge is easily the best pick. Bosh and Villanueva love to face up, we've been running Bosh at the 4 and Villanueva at the 3, so why pass on a great post player with a lot of room for growth who can play center.

Picking Gay doesn't address any needs and he may well not even be the most talented player in the draft.

[cy]

Gay is the guy everyone seems to be projecting as the best player long-term. He's HUGE explosive. Knock on Aldridge seems to be lack of intensity, but that can be overstated. My point is that on the kind of team that Colangelo has a leg up on building here, what makes better sense: a back to the basket big man who is not the consensus top pick, or a whippet at 6-8 who can run the floor, has shown NCAA 3-point range, finishes with flair and power, has otherworldly hang time and plays some perimeter defence?
I like this guy more than Aldridge. But I still like Thomas most, rather than waiting on some Euro guy.

[Michae La Fleur]

Forget about Gay and Aldrige, they will both be solid players for years to come but Thomas is the definite #1! He is a freak! Defense is what wins championships in any sport. The raptors had one of the worst defenses in the league and Thomas would make the raptors a much better defensive team immediately. I know everyone is thinking why pick another #4? He's a freshman and will grow from his current 6'9 and his style of plays makes me think of Dwight Howard. Thomas wouldn't have any problem playing the 5. Imagine this lineup #5 Thomas #4 Bosh #3 Villanueva #2 Peterson #1 cap space to sign a decent point guard.
not a championship lineup, but its a start and will make them a playoff team.

[Tommy]

Mr. La Fleur - Thomas may be a freshman, technically, but it's only because he was redshirted his freshman year due to injury. I really doubt he's going to grow at this point (Howard was 6'11" and 2 years younger at the draft). Not that it's a problem. Ben Wallace is probably 6'8". But, then again, he's got 40-50lbs of muscle on Tyrus.

Bargnani's the only top player I haven't seen play live... Scares me that the Raps are pretty much the only team that have him rated so high. Any team that gets Aldridge or Thomas at #3 has got to be ecstatic.

[MC]

Since the 3 top picks are all forwards and were good there (CB, CV) I say take the proven big man Aldridge and finally have a proven center. Not like all the other busts we've had at that position (see Zan Tabak, O.Miller, N. Huffman, E. Montross, M N'diaye, or Hakeem). Yes I know, how painful was it to hear those names again. Then offer Mike James and/or Mo Pete for the answer, Mr. Philly himself, AI. (u can even throw Hoffa in for the heck of it)

[Tom Kat]

Hard to argue with Tyrus Thomas. His strenghts out weigh any weakness: "Big man that is agile with great leaping ability ... Feathery touch out to 12-15 feet ... Has a very nice turn around jump shot ...Spectacular dunker, his explosiveness and quickness getting off the ground is unrivaled among college post players ... A super shot blocker due to his long arms and explosiveness ... Runs the floor well ... Huge wingspan ... Has good hands for rebonds and catching passes ... Plays with good energy, loves to dunk ... Extremely long arms plus great lift make him a monster on the boards and allow him to play much bigger than 6-9 ... Plays with great intensity, has an edge to him ... Excellent passer, great vision ... Great upside ..."

[Jeff - HoopsAddict]

I think a team out of the lottery (or even out of the top 6) would be interested in the Raptors' first overall pick. I can see Colangelo packaging the pick for an established centre.

[Peter]

WHY in the world is Tyrus Thomas being hyped so much? I mean, yeah, I watched the final four and I saw the 6 seconds that made this guy's career, but he's a freshman. Sure, the guy's got hops, but he couldn't hit a 15-footer to save New Orleans from an oncoming hurricane (sorry, ok, bad LSU joke).
Colangelo has reminded all of us that the Raptors have a pretty full lineup already before the draft and before signing Mike James, who to me seems to be becoming more and more expendable, there are a bunch of PGs in this league that can shoot the ball 20 times a night and make a whole bunch of bad decisions.
My gut says Bargnani, even though I've never seen him play, simply because the Raps don't need a straight 4-5 like Aldridge or Williams, and I don't think that the BC wants to take a guard. He's happy with the youth the Raptors have, and the last thing we need is a rookie point guard that might not quite be ready. Then again, I think Marcus Williams would look pretty good in purple...

[jpu]

Tyrus Thomas as Dwight Howard... absolute best case scenario. Worst case scenario, he turns into another Stromile Swift and we all look back in 10 years and wonder what in the world the Raps were thinking. Bargnani has appeal, but he can't reasonably be expected to guard SF's and it's not in the team's best interest to slide Bosh to centre for the long haul. Take the safest pick that could turn into the stud, Aldridge.

[Craven]

i think that taking a flyer on Thomas is a Hoffa waiting to happen. the expectations would be very high, and he would be a disappointment when we realize he can run and jump, but can't do much else.
i've only read about Bargnani. Aldridge could be OK, but is he the answer at centre? the Raptors are best off, i think, trading down a few spots and selecting an athletic swing man for depth. there are NO guards on the team. Darrick Martin, Alvin Williams, Barrett, and Mike James may all be gone next season. that leaves Calderon and a bag of chips in the backcourt. Mo Pete and Joey Graham can fill in, but they are really more natural at the 3 spot, especially Joey. CV plays the the 3 well, but he's a more natural 4/tweener. point is, we don't really have a 'natural' 2 guard on this roster. and even if Mo Pete is doing a great job starting, and he is, there is no one behind him. Joey's not a 2 guard, and Bonner/Saw can't really play the 3.
Centre and PG are glaring, but we could get by with the abundance of front court bodies, and Calderon and a free agent vet. but out swing postions, especially the SG are woefully thin. we don't want to get into the habit of playing too many players out of position... that can only work for so long.

[Esum]

i have to say it's between Tyrus Thomas and Andrea Bargnani. I don't really care how many forwards we have. you can never have too many good players. we can have a team of Kevin Garnetts. Doesn't matter, as long as they are good players. since Raptors lack depth as well. it's not only about the first unit. but 12 player rotation. but I agree with what some people have said. Thomas adds the intensity on the defensive end. Bargnani is definitely a dirk and peja type player. a really good shooter. but we have charlie shooting 3 pt and mo pete. i think thomas is the better fit. it is what bosh as for as well, rebounder and some one who can block shoots.

[Kwonda]

Trade it to Portland for the number 4 and Juan Dixon and then use the number 4 on Bargnani. Solves the point guard issue on both teams (portland has too many) and still brings in Bargnani, someone that I would take number 1 anyways. Tyrus is a flop for sure, reminds me alot of tractor Traylor ... Aldridge would be cool alongside Bosh but looks inexperienced and doesn't know how to be a winner ... Gay will probably be the best player from this draft 10 years from now and will be ROY but he'll probably just leave and sign somewhere else. Adam Morrison is Keith Van Horn all over again!

[Kwonda]

Or: After trading the first pick to portland for Juan Dixon and the number 4, watch as portland F's up by taking Tyrus followed by Chicago taking Aldridge, and Charlotte taking Gay, leaving Toronto with the guy they want anyways... Bargnani...

Bargnani will solidify a few things that the Raps need. A fundamental big man that will take a lot of double-team pressure off of Bosh and someone who can rebound the ball... and his speed is a perfect fit for a Colangelo built team that can fly up and down the court... look for MoPete to improve his numbers (perfect Colangelo player) and Juan Dixon to become a star... Charlie V may have to be moved for a perimeter defender who can run like a Barbosa type... the days of Bonner/Sow/Araujo fourth quarters are history!

[Chester]

For those people who haven't seem Bargani play. Here are some links:

Andrea Bargani - Italy
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=6131822744621417810&q=bargnani
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-6413229403014366549&q=bargnani
http://youtube.com/watch?v=c682_32HNuA&search=Andrea%20Bargani\

People say he's like the next Dirk N. And I must say he does look to have much potential. But again that's Europe, and yes they got good players over there, but they also got pretty bad ones too. My only hear with Bergani is that he's fragile. If they pick him. They can probably put him at 5, Bosh - 4, Villanueva - 3, Mo Pete - 2, and a new point guard.

Personally I like Rudy Gay. He's just a natural athlete and you can't teach that. Look at Vince Carter when he came into the league, he could jump to Uranus, but he couldn't shoot. Now he's one of the best shooters in the league. I think Rudy has that same potential but better because he's not a sissy like that other guy.

Pick Rudy Gay make him play #3, keep Joey Graham as a backup.

[RJ]

how about this at 5-Chandler, 4-Aldridge, 3-Bargani, 2-Gordon, 1-freeagent or Duhon subs - Villanueva and MoPete. We'd have to trade Bosh for Chandler, Gordon, Duhon and Bulls' first round pick. Imagine this scenario.

[PB]

If Bryan Colangelo doesn't pick Adam Morrison, he and Toronto will miss out on the next Larry Bird.

Not only is he the smartest player available in the draft, but he is also plays with the most passion and intensity. Morrison will be an all-star his entire career.

[Bailey]

The Raptors have the same dilema as the Houston Texans; They already have a very good player at the position the projected #1 plays. PF: Bosh(Thomas), SF: Charlie V.(Bargnani). Aldridge is a great prospect at a position which is always at a premium. However, of the last 3 drafts, he would not have been a top 3 pick in any of those drafts.
So, with the exception of the Pistons (who could have Carmelo, Bosh or Wade added to their current roster and blew the pick on Darko), what team can afford to take a player at a position where you are already strong? It is a complete waste of at least one player.
The Raptors should do what the Texans should have done...Trade down just a couple of spots to a team who really likes Tyrus Thomas or Aldridge. Then take a player like Brandon Roy or Rudy Gay (keep in mind, we would also be getting another contributor from trading down). For example, the #1 to Charlotte for the #3 and Prezec. I don't know if I'd do this specific trade, but it illustrates the idea that we could upgrade our center position and also add a big-upside SG/SF. For quite a while, Rudy Gay was the guy on a lot of draft boards at #1.

[enkhata]

RUDY GAY is by far THE best NBA player in this year's draft. How they end up getting him is irrelevant - i.e. picking him #1, trading down or in a sign-and-trade. At 6'8, he is athletic, strong, has range on his jumper, is solid off the dribble and can flat-out score. Gay is the key player on the board in 2006 ... to those who understand the game at this level. To not end up with Gay would be a gigantic blunder.

[Craven]

Gay's potential is scary, but he seemed to coast or disappear far too much at UCONN. perhaps that is a matter of the situation there, since they had so much talent, but it's something to consider. but, we also have to keep in mind, they said that about Charlie, too.
trading would be optimal, but it they can't, the fleeting nature of this draft class at least allows to take one of up to 7 or 8 players at #1 without at least someone agreeing with them. there's no consensus, so there is not likely to be universal criticism, like when we chose Hoffa. it might seem a little high, but can anyone say for sure that Brandon Roy or Rudy Gay aren't worth a #1 pick?