An early take on the Raptors

With the annual Leafs goring already underway, thoughts in this tiny corner inevitably turn to ... basketball.

Marc Stein, one of my faves, gives his rundown on NBA off-season activity, and skipping down to the Stein line on for the Raptors, it's almost as if he's reading my mind: "I definitely wouldn't expect a playoff berth in Year 1, after so many changes and given the inevitable struggles awaiting the NBA newcomers, but the plan already has won Chris Bosh over."

BILL KOSTROUN/AP

Headed back to the lottery?

A couple of weeks back I was out for a jar or two with Skeets and Tas, The Basketball Jones twins, and the subject got around to the Raptors -- hell of a surprise, that -- and how many games they might win this season.

I said 27, same as last year. As they picked their eyeballs out of the witbier and wondered if my glass was spiked with something, I went on to say I wouldn't be surprised if they won fewer than that (They won't, but I just wanted to see those eyeballs drop out again. I tried it again here in the office today, with boy wonder editor Spencer, and he had the same reaction. Honest, try it yourself with your friends if you don't believe me. It's great fun.).

To explain: As Stein says, there are too many changes here to expect a big jump in W's -- not just newcomers to each other, but newcomers to the league, its lifestyle and the sheer length of the season.

A new point guard, only two returning starters, a No. 1 overall pick who will need some time, a forward in Garbajosa who will need more than some time to adjust to playing faster players man-to-man (forget the world championships -- it's a different game over there, and to expect an instant fit here in the NBA's different environment requires a huge leap of faith equivalent to expecting USA coaches to actually, you know, scout their opponents), a coach who goes into the season with one year left on his contract and no groundswell building anywhere to give him an extension . . . There's more, but training camp is nearly three weeks away, and no use throwing all the caveats out there at once. My No. 1 player to watch is Joey Graham - the lower he ends up on the depth chart, the farther ahead this team is on its growth curve.

Despite that seeming gloomy assessment, this season should be nothing but very interesting, even watchable -- certainly more watchable than the dreck and turnover from the past three seasons or so. Colangelo's experiment, going heavily Euro including the hiring of an assistant GM will make this team one of the most scrutinized in the NBA. And the world. If it pays off, how long will it be before a Euro-raised head coach -- a Pesic, say, or David Blatt, to just throw out two names purely off the top of the head -- gets an NBA gig? Not long at all.

So bring it on, I say, 28 wins or no, because for the first time in a long time, there appears to be a Toronto GM in charge who actually has a plan, and it's actually quite different and worth paying attention to. It may even work -- but not just yet.

Comments

[Jason Hildebrandt]

While I agree with the thought that there will be some adjustments for some of the new faces on the Raptors - I'm not quite as pessimistic about it as Mr. Young seems to be.

The reason for that is simple - this is a very deep team. For the first time in a while I have the feeling that if a player goes down (with the notable exception of Chris Bosh) that the team is not left with a large gaping whole in its line-up. If one of the new faces struggles - there will be others there to pick up the slack for a change - taking some of the pressure off of all of them and perhaps reducing the impact that the adjustments will have on the players and team.

Are we the beast of the east this year? ... No, but can we throw body after body at our opponents and wear them down while our stars stay just that little bit fresher for the end of the game - oh yeah, we can do that. In my mind that makes us as dangerous as anyone in the conference and I personally will be very surprised if the Raptors don't see playoff action.

[Gus Pergantis]

I believe that this year's version of the Raptors will surprise a lot of people around the league. They will not be world beaters but 35 to 40 wins should not come as a surprise. It is a lot easier to aclimate yourself into a team environment with everyone shouldering the burden than it is for one player to do it alone. If this team jells then the sky is the limit. Even if one new body falters in a game I'm pretty sure another body will cover for the drop-off on any given night. I'm sure different players will struggle at different parts of the season but I am not convinced that they will all struggle at the same time. This team is too deep for prolonged down time. Prediction of 42 wins and a play-off first round upset.

[voislav]

I would say about 35 wins, mostly because I'm not impressed by the look of the Eastern conference this year and I think that Raptors are going to have a strong second half of the season, once the rotation and the roles on the team are settled.

[enkhata]

they will win less than 30 games again ... and, sam mitchell will be relieved of his coaching duties ... having a plan in place means nothing ... the fact is, bryan colangelo has no idea what it takes to put together a team capable of winning an nba championship ... if he did, he would never have (i) drafted andrea bargnani with the no. 1 selection this year, (ii) traded joe johnson to atlanta, (iii) traded jason kidd for stephon marbury, or (iv) traded steve nash to dallas in the first place

[Mark Freedman]

35 wins. And that might put them into a race for the final playoff spot. That's an indictment of the Eastern Conference. I suppose someone has to be valadictorian of summer school.

[J.E. Skeets]

1. Twins? Tas and I look nothing alike. I struggle with facial hair.

2. Didn’t we have a great conversation about Berlin?

3. Chemistry is overrated. Case in point: the TBJ podcast.

[Mike Smith]

All comes down to one thing this season - 2 words - SAM MITCHELL.

He will either make or break this team

[Rick Grace]

A scientific survey in 2005 put basketball interest across CAnada at 7%. Well behind hockey at 35%, and the CFL at 24%. In Toronto, basketball interest was at 13%, even behind the hated by the media at CFL 14%!

So another losing season by the Raptors can't be good. It may even make them more insignificant than they already are.

Buts it lucky for the NBA they have all kinds of fans in the media like yourself. Who can name the coach of the Utah Jazz without having to ask what a Utah Jazz is.

But if the people of Toronto give up completely on the Raptors, what does MLSE do? I say they should sell them off to some rich sucker down south and return to what MLSE's original goal was. To win a bloody STanley Cup!

[Chris]

That's kind of funny that someone is criticizing Colangelo's moves in Phoenix. I mean what was he thinking, building a perennial playoff contender. Sure they haven't won championship, but neither have the majority of the teams of late not named the Pistons, Spurs, Lakers, Heat or Bulls. Does that mean we can't say any other team has been successful or unsucessful?

Being a contender is preferable to being on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Furthermore, assuming a play will fail before even one game has been played is a bit presumptous.

[Andrew]

Voislav, herewith in rebuttal of your comments:

(i) No-one, not even you, yet knows whether Bargnani is a Dirk, a Darko, or a Dirko.

(ii)EVERYONE (except obviously you), considers the Joe Johnson transaction to be a feather in Colangelo's cap, especially since Johnson made it clear he didn't want to return to the Suns. Compare that to the Vince Carter trade.

(iii)Colangelo was ordered to trade Kidd out of Phoenix after the latter allegedly beat his wife.

(iv)The draft pick Nash was traded to Dallas for became Shawn Marion. Meanwhile, Nash didn't peak as a player until he came back to Phoenix.

[voislav]

Actually the name of the poster appears BELOW the coments not above, so no need to rebutt :)

[SpanishWorldChampion]

If the Raptors play as a team, using all the roster and with a european concept of the game, the Raptors will be the surprise in NBA this year.

[Robbie Jones]

Basketball is way more popular than hockey can ever imagine. Big surprise that the CFL and a niche sport like hockey is more popular in CANADA when there is only one basketball team.

Hockey plain sucks, you want to talk down sports you know nothing about? Well two can play that game!

Did you know that there are 24 NHL teams in the US and that NHL playoff games gets lower ratings than womens gymnastics aired on tape delay?!?!?

You want more you puck head? Here we go, The NHL's tv contract for the next few years is less than the price it cost to build an Arena these days.

Winter Olympic hockey Ratings were so bad this year.

It's people like you that make this country's sports landscape so pathetic. You puckheads taking pride in Hockey, a sport that is so niche that no one cares about, is like bulling a kid around that is handicapped. No country puts money into a niche sport like hockey, they don't give a rats you know what. You don't see olympic hockey news headlining BBC, ESPN, or any of the big media channels across the world.

Hockey is a joke, and if you are a proud Canadian you would want this country to actually compete in Sports that matter. Instead you get all defensive when you see a basketball/football/baseball and probably soccer article because you probably think it's stealing the lime light away from hockey. I got news for you, Basketball aint going away in this City. For other canadian cities, I could care less, I forget they even exist when it comes to sports.