$126 million is just a start

The Blue Jays have made what would amount to a pretty hefty offer to Vernon Wells, due to become a free agent a year from now, as Yahoo's Tim Brown puts it - and it was Brown who broke this last night:

FRANK GUNN/CANADIAN PRESS

Vernon Wells: Financials pointing up.

Toronto and its baseball franchise are deflecting Carlos Delgado flashbacks, and general manager J.P. Ricciardi is reliving his formative years in Oakland, during which Mark McGwire was traded and Jason Giambi was allowed to walk. Not long after Ricciardi left for Toronto, Miguel Tejada left the A's for the same financial reasons.
According to one baseball source, Ricciardi has floated to Wells a proposal of seven years and $126 million, the average annual value of which would exceed Soriano's contract with the Chicago Cubs (eight years, $136 million) by $1 million.
Ricciardi would not comment and Wells' agent, Greg Genske, would only say, "We have yet to have meaningful discussions," about a contract extension.

Ricciardi struck out on adding pitching targets Ted Lilly and Gil Meche at last week's winter meetings, but the Wells question overshadowed the entire proceedings. I claim no special knowledge here, but I've dealt with agentspeak over the years, and that quote from Genske is pretty much equivalent to a 'no, thanks ... the real game hasn't even started yet.'
ESPN's Buster Olney says as much this morning in an Insider piece, writing that Wells' price could well reach the vertiginous level of $200 million if he goes on the market at the end of the 2007 season:

When the Jays' honchos met earlier this week to consider the offer made to Wells, the numbers must have been jarring to the executives. Six weeks ago, a $75 million offer to Wells would've sounded a little light, but not unreasonable -- and now reasonable has climbed to $126 million. Seven years, $18 million a year.
(snip)
If Wells hits the market next fall, when he's eligible to become a free agent, he'll get offered a deal of $150 million. At least.
The White Sox don't have a center field solution, and they would probably bid on him. The Red Sox would definitely bid on him. Tom Hicks, as impetuous an owner as there is when it comes to free agents, would bid on Wells, knowing they could bring him home to Texas. The Yankees, freed by a lot of contracts set to expire after next season, might bid on him, to at least drive up the price on the Red Sox and perhaps to move Johnny Damon to left field and Hideki Matsui to DH. The Mets want to trade for him now, and would bid on him. The Dodgers would bid on him.
With those financial monsters involved, Wells' deal, as a free agent next fall, might be closer to $200 million than $100 million.

If nothing else, the Jays have put the ball in Wells' court, as they always had to. Next move is his to make. As Jeff Blair puts it over at his Globe blog, there are plenty of options from here.

Comments

[Dave]

I THINK ITS WAY TOO MUCH. ONE PLAYER FOR THAT MUCH??? THEY COULD SIGN FOUR GOOD PLAYERS FOR THAT MUCH.

[cy]

And that's precisely what they'll end up doing, Dave, if (when?) the ante on this poker game keeps going up.

[Bill Rhude]

The time has come for the Jays to decide if they want to play with the BIG BOYS or just continue the status quo. Mr. Ted Rogers should give the nod to get Wells, then get Zito and another pitcher and a shortstop with some bang if still required. To make money in baseball you have to spend with the best and once you become known as a consistent winner the payback will come to Mr. Rogers in many ways throughout his financial empire. Not to spend the money will only result in future big time losses. Sitting on the fence is not an option in baseball.

[harp]

I don't see how he is worth that kind of money. He doesn't have Pujols type numbers at the plate, but he is a solid all around player. Either way they have to sign him to a contract likely closer to $140 million or trade him and move on. If he leaves it will just be another lost star to add to a long list.

[Casey Smith]

The Jays need to settle the Wells issue well in advance of the season starting. I think they should throw more than $18 million a year at him, $20 million per year is a nice figure. If Wells does not jump at that kind of money than it is clear that he is looking for a change of scenery more than a big pay day and I would guess that he goes home to Texas.
As far as being able to sign four good players for the $18 million range, I would love to see Dave find four good free agents on today's market that would sign for around $4 million a season each. In today's market you have to overpay for star players. There is perhaps no better all around player in the game today than Vernon Wells.

[Rob]

I'm of the opinion that it's Ted Roger's money...and if he wants to pay Wells 300 million go for it..the Jays NEED to keep the core of good guys together and not let them get away like they usually do..and Wells is definitely a good guy..he's good for the team the city and he's THE face of the jays..we hafta keep him no matter what

[ILLAN]

I disagree Bill. Toronto's not a baseball town, and even in cities that are (like Atlanta), they deal with only half-full houses for many a home game.

I do agree that sitting on the fence isn't an option, but going the way of the A's and the Twins makes more sense. Invest heavily in scouting, build up a fantastic farm system, and then go year-to-year. If one year, you see a chance to compete, then trade some youngsters for some veteran help. If it works, great, otherwise, build the farm again and wait...it's the only way to proceed if you're not going to spend $200 million/season (a sum that the Jays/Rogers have no hope of making back).

[jeeves]

If i were Ricciardi I would make that my final offer. Vernon is a good centerfielder but that's a lot of years for no guarantee of performance. Vernon is a good player, but his value comes from playing a difficult position, not because he's the best hitter in the league.

If they had the budget of the Yanks I'd say do it, but this will decimate the team since they'll have Vernon Wells and nothing else for 7 years. I'd go with Johnson in center and Lind in left. You'd get similar offensive production and get close to the same defense (at least in centre.. Lind is suspect).

I'd just keep Vernon for the remaining contract year and then let him go.
I get a sense that Vernon really doesn't care about staying in Toronto the way Delgado did. Vernon also doesn't resonate with the fans the way Delgado did. This gives JP a year to come up with a solution for 2009.

[cy]

even if they could get an Ervin Santana type young starter in a trade now, Jeeves? That's what I'd be looking for. i don't think they can come out of this game with nothing.

[Z.A.]

Well, Like so many of the other comments, Vernon Wells is just not worth the money, and my reasons are as follows: for the Jays, they can't afford to have another player take up 20% of their payroll which is what hampered them with Delgado a few years back. Furthermmore, the market is very unpredictable, and to offer a 7-8 year contract is not wise for future flexibility. Thirdly, if Wells is offered $20M a year, do you then re-do Halladay's and Ryan's and Burnett's contracts? (By the way, as much criticism as Ricciardi receives, don't those 3 contracts seem like a bargain right now?). I think it would be best to either trade Wells for young pitching (well any pitching actually!), and fill in the offense lost through other trade routes (how great would a player like Tejada look in the Jays lineup if he were available?). I think that giving Wells $18M year (or more!) is short-sighted and will completely handicap the team for years to come.

[Russell]

The blue jays have talented outfielders on the way up. Vernon didn't make the difference last year. Why not try a trade like the Roberto Alomar trade, we send an established star for a star with about a year's experience in a position we have struggled to fill lately, shortstop.

[pete]

I think they should trade Vernon to the Mets or some other stupidly rich team for all the pitching they've got. Vern is great, perhaps irreplaceable. But you get to the world series with pitching. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you the Detroit Tigers. Blow all those millions of Ted's on pitching, I say. They've already got more than enough offense and probably defense as well without Wells.