Open thread: What's wrong (and right) with the Leafs (and Raptors)?

Okay, open thread time. The Leafs are free-falling, and the Raptors are tied for first place in their division. So the question is: How's the emotional ticker of your average Leafs/Raps fan reading today?

MIKE CASSESE/REUTERS

Thrashing around after another Atlanta goal.

I didn't watch the Leafs last night, but with the morning coffee this morning reviewed the DVR'd evidence, and it was pretty damning stuff. I'm not going to jump all over Andrew Raycroft. The Leafs teetered on the edge all night defensively, taking bad penalties and finally paying the price. The glaring lowlights that hit me, against a Thrashers team that boasts three top-flight snipers who were in full flow, came in the form of Paul Maurice's complaining, the continuing enigma that is Alex Steen and the defence pair of Hal Gill and Ian White, who had a brutal night.

As for the Raptors, note that Sam Mitchell has found a bit of a formula to get through the first month of the schedule ahead of schedule, after a halting start - and perhaps into January, when that schedule turns in their favour. The supersized Garbajosa-Bosh-Bargnani frontcourt, TJ Ford's continuing familiarization - all that remains is to put Morris Peterson back as a starter, a move that was strange from the start until the sore elbow provided partial cover. All Fred Jones has done so far is demonstrate why Indiana, a team that could sorely use his kind of hops, were able to say goodbye to him. But all in all, this is a group that looks like they've made strides since ditching the shot-happy approach.

Raptors up, Leafs down - and what a switch that is from a couple of weeks back. Your turn, now, on what's going on here.

Comments

[Anthony Saldanha]

Sad that the Leafs who showed such promise at the begining of this season have slid down to the level it seems they are eyeing the last spot in their division.

Surely good skating, scoring and goaltending is slacking a lot. Same old story each December, even if team appears on paper to be different.

Razor should surely be benched. Aubin is the man to get the team out of this situation and yes . . . lots of hard work and good puck control with "no dumb penalities" is crucial

Good luck Maurice and Sundin

Anthony

[cy]

It seems that Raycroft has become the focal point. But the offence has run dry. They've taken too many penalties of late. And last night, for the first time I've seen, Maurice appeared to be ruffled. It's a little early for that.
btw, Typepad is having a bad day so this thread may have unravelling issues.

[John]

No surprise that the Leafs are having problems, what did they add over the off season? A couple of big slow defencemen and a questionable goalie.

Expect to see more as they miss the playoffs again....They just don't get it, to succeed in the "New" NHL you have to be fast....fast....fast....Most of their offensive (could be taken a couple of ways) with a couple of exceptions would be 3rd or 4th line players on a good team.

Dump the deadwood, dump the GM, blow it up and start again with a GM who actually understands what is required to win.

[Carla]

“What’s wrong with the Leafs?” Oh dear. Easier to answer “What’s right with the Leafs?” To that, I’d say Tucker’s playing well. And, umm, lemme see… Er, Tucker’s playing well. Oh, I said that already? Uhhh. Hrm.

*cough*

[sound of crickets]

[Glenn]

Are the Leafs playing to fire the coach? Don't they like Maurice? Is there discord in the locker room? Watching the games, the players didn't seem 'happy' after scoring. I think there's a rift in the locker room and it's spilling out on the ice.

[Carla]

Oh, agh, I can quite happily live without ^ this ^ kinda rumourmongering, Glenn. If we’re gonna do this sorta thing, then I postulate that aliens landed and abducted those Leafs who were playing so well while Mats was out--oh! hmm…[strokes chin thoughtfully]—and replaced them with these donkeys who’ve been playing in their uniforms these past few games.

[Dom Mak]

The Leafs are looking like Pat Quinn is back behind the bench - no more crisp passing, attacking on the fringe, no back checking, can't find the puck when the pass gets through, slow skating Antropov, on and on. Let's hope they don't fall behind too much around Christmas. Never said this about Sundin before but I think they need a more emotion driven marquee player as leader (not Tucker) who can turn the tide when the team gets into a funk. JFJ got his contract just in time so go to work!

[MF37]

What’s wrong with the Leafs? Here are my top four guesses.

1. Inconsistent goaltending – The big debate about the Raycroft trade was whether JFJ was acquiring the goalie that won the Calder or the guy who posted the worst save percentage in the NHL last year. Turns out he got both: when Raycroft’s save percentage is over .900, the Leafs are 10-1-1; when it’s less than .900, the Leafs are 1-8-2

2. Poor Five on Five Play – Despite what all the pundits say about specialty teams, approximately 65% of every game is played at even strength (ES). The Leafs couldn’t compete at ES last year, JFJ clearly didn’t address that with any off-season moves, so it should come as no surprise that the team can’t compete at ES this year. They are a minus 4 at ES: 6th in ES goals for and 28th in ES goals against.

3. Team D - The Leafs have the second most expensive group of D-men in the League and sit 26th in goals against...someone needs to ask the braintrust about the appropriate allocation of salary dollars in a capped environment.

4. Conditioning? Maurice wants an up-tempo game, the Buds seem capable of delivering this style for 40 minutes. Like a basketball team with a weak bench, they can’t close the deal and are getting crushed in the final frame. Are they not in good enough shape to play Maurice’s style?

How do you fix it?

1. Give Aubin more starts (yikes)
2. No idea. All I could come up with is: practice diving and the old hold-the-stick-under-the-arm move to get more PPs so the club spends less time at ES
3. Buy JFJ a copy of Moneyball
4. See if the Sens will lend the Leafs those handy dandy exercise bikes they all seem to ride whenever they have to do a media interview

[Carla]

My question is this: which is the “real” Leafs team? We’ve seen both Jekyll and Hyde in blue in white so far this season, and I wonder how long it’ll be before we can determine which is the team’s real personality...

I was one of those Negative Nellies back in the summer and preseason who predicted another short season by what looked like another lame team. And I'm happy to admit that I have been quite pleasantly surprised by a lot that they’ve shown me in the early-going. There have been a lotta games that were a blast to watch, when the Leafs have really clicked and actually seemed to “get” The! New! NHL! Then there have been other times when I hafta figure Pat Quinn has gotten a chuckle and thought to himself, “Well, Paul, now you see what I had to deal with,” when the team has come out after a great performance and inexplicably played like those aforementioned donkeys. It’s like the stars align for some games but some kinda crazy-bad juju is cast at the Leafs’ bench for others.

I just don’t know what to think about this team. I love a good rollercoaster ride, though.

[Jason]

I thought the Leafs were going to do bad all season. All they proved was they have potential to do good, I think they're starting to show their true selves. The Leafs can be good, I just don't think they're good now.

Raptors are playing better ball, but I still think they're going to win 35 games. What's been good for the Raptors is that everyone is starting to play better with the exception of Jones. They're getting better at shooting the ball and they're taking smarter shots. While it's fun to see the Raptors #1 in their division, I don't expect to see it stay like that for very long.

[John Richardson]

He's not the only problem but Raycroft's performance so far has varied from awful to mediocre.

Oh, yeah, he's had the occasional good game but he's letting in too many soft goals--high glove side, short side, five hole. See Damien Cox's column for more details.

[Robbie - Mississauga]

Chris,

As mentioned last weekend, the raptors had a tough road trip and therefore their record was indicative of this. So what is going right with the raptors? Simply they play in the worst division and are currently playing those teams. They are marginally better than their division competitors and would be better without Coach Mitchell. Although I do like Mitchell, I think the team does not respond to him.
The Raptors will probably make the playoffs, but not because they are a good team, they just play in the worst division ever.

The Leafs are starting to show their true colors. After a surprising start they are starting to lose in stretches. They can't play a 3rd period. They aren't responding to the coach and their players are slower and less skilled which is not what you need in the NEW NHL.

But we all knew this after the lockout and this is just the beginning phases to better this club. The Youth will serve, where ??? Just be patient with the young guys, like stajan and steen. I personally would play Steen with Mats on the first line. A baptism by fire approach and let him drown if he can stay afloat.

Leafs will probably not make the playoffs as their defense stinks. Aside from McCabe and Kaberle's offense, there is not much defense. What you need are faster and stronger defenseman who can move the puck.

Their current quintent of defensemen are decent but maybe for NHL season 2001.

Cheers!

[cy]

I'm glad you brought up conditioning, MF. I think one thing that happened off the top of the season is that the Leafs were much busier in practices than last year, and so came into the season in better shape and readier to play Maurice's more aggressive style. But that seems to have leveled off some, with young players like White, Wellwood and especially Steen plateau-ing, and the defence does look subjectively like it's really beginning to struggle in its own end.
As for the Raptors, Robbie, I don't think I'm as prepared as you are to discount the Ws in their own division, even if it is a woeful lot. I was at the Boston game Friday and sweated thru the final minutes when Mitchell didn't use his timeouts to sub in offence for defence and v-v, which made it a bit more of a nailbiter than it perhaps should have been. But he has done some positive things of late, throwing a zone out there at times with the three-bigs lineup and working to get Bosh to the FT line late - there does appear to be a coherence to some of the approach they're taking, and the roles they're accepting. That is new. At least, it sure looks new to me - and a lot preferable to heaving it up a la Mike James or, in this year's model, Jones.

[raptoral]

I've resigned myself to the fact that Mitchell may be here for awhile yet, but unless he can win a playoff series, a statement something like ... "Sam Mitchell is a capable coach in the NBA but he just didn't fit into our plans as we wanted to move in a different direction" ... will be made at some pt. between now and the off season. Problem is, season ticket holders will have to sit through another mediocre season.

But even though winning cures all, and their performance of late has been encouraging, the Raptors last two wins were as much about the shortcomings of their opposition as it was about their own execution. In tonight's game against a better team, they shrivelled up down the stretch coming out on the short end of a very long 0-11 run in the last five minutes to lose a winnable game. At this pace the Sam-watch will be alive and well right up until the trade deadline. And at that point, if they are not close to a playoff run, who knows what depths the team may sink to at the end of this season.

[MK]

here's the good, bad, and downright ugly about the Leafs this season:

GOOD:
1. Paul Maurice - smart coach, has done well with what he's been given, and instilled a new philosophy that's more in-line with today's game. Maurice has made JFJ look better than he actually is
2. Tucker, Peca, Kaberle, and Raycroft. all have played well in their particular roles.

BAD:
1. Mats Sundin - the captain has played uninspired hockey so far. a $7M player should dominate the play, not skirt around on the periphery.
2. Steen - talented kid has lost his confidence and is struggling badly. maybe should send him down to Marlies to find his game. it seemed to work for Spezza, early in his career.
3. Gill & White - on any other team, this Davey & Goliath duo would be the 3rd defensive pairing. here, perhaps due to injuries, they get the most minutes behind Kaberle & McCabe. after some early success, the painfully slow-footed Gill, and rookie White are showing that they don't deserve the ice time they are getting.

UGLY:
1. Kubina - looked very good in his 1st three games before injury. after the injury & a side trip home for birth of his daughter, it seems like he left his brain (and legs) in the Czech Republic. somebody please tell him he's getting paid $5M to play DEFENSE! if I have to see him meander slowly into the corner ... of the offensive zone, and give up a odd-man rush as a result, one more time .... I'm goin to blow a gasket!!
2. JFJ - I wonder if the same delusional people who were flapping their gums in support of extending JFJ to a long term contract a few weeks ago, still hold that opinion now. my guess, is no. the MLSE Board were wise to proceed cautiously in addressing JFJ's future with the Leafs. you really have to question JFJ's eye for talent. it started with ridiculously overpaying McCabe (over Kaberle), continued with Kubina, and will likely do the same when negotiating with Tucker. overpaying players sends a clear signal to his fellow GM's & agents, that JFJ is an easy mark, and it eats up precious salary cap space. we can only hope that MLSE will fire JFJ in the New Year, and bring in a real hockey man like Colin Campbell.

[coach]

I don't worry about the games of the raps. Win or lose, something good will come out of it. Just enjoy the game. Last night's game vs. the Cavs was entertaining. One can see bargnani improving before one's eyes, and the rest of the team too.
Just always remember that this is a young team and one should not expect too much.
And did I say Greg Oden will be a good addition to the team?

[Glen Striemer]

It is again time to examine JFJr.'s record as Leaf's GM. Not too pretty. We give up the best young goalie prospect in the world while the jury is still out on A. Raycroft, especially when he seems to be outplayed by the backup who is starting against Boston. Meanwhile down on the ranch, the goalie we kept hasn't won a game for the Marlies since early November. Hal Gill looks like a dinosaur frolicking with gazelles. He belongs on Philly's blueline. How can a guy that big be so soft? It is time to can the season and thrust the Leafs into a rebuiling mode. How good would Mats look with Ottawa? It would make them favorites to win the cup and they would probably give up Chris Phillips and Mike Fisher to get him, or at least Fisher and a first-rounder. And how good would D. Tucker look with Calgary playing alongside of Jerome Ig. We would probably secure a first rounder there as well. The Leafs are one of the few teams in the league without a legitimate budding superstar and the only way to get one is to finish dead last. At least we have that possibility this year even without the trades but with them it would be certain. However, J.F.Jr. doesn't strike me as the type to throw in the obvious towel. He probably still thinks we are a veteran away from winning it all.

[Farhan Lalji (not the dude from TSN)]

Interesting to see that a lot of thread readers talked only about the Leafs, and only one or two talked solely about the Raps. Think I'm about a medium, enjoying seeing the Raps play well through a very tough sched (and Bargnani, Greta and TJ continue to improve). And sad to see the Leafs decline. But I think both teams could squeak into the playoffs - which I'm sure everyone in TO would have been happy with at the beginning of the seasons.

[Lawrence]

No one at the beginning of the season really expected the Leafs to go very far this year with the talent they currently have.
What has been painfully evident though is a lack of leadership that has been shown on the faces of each Leaf player during the third periods of the last few games. I don't think after six straight losses that there is room for excuses anymore. Someone has to take the proverbial bull by the horns and do something about it. My question is, I am wondering if anyone on the Leafs roster including Mats Sundin is currently capable of it.

[Carla]

'Someone has to take the proverbial bull by the horns and do something about it. My question is, I am wondering if anyone on the Leafs roster including Mats Sundin is currently capable of it.'

It would be nice to wear my Roberts jersey again without lookin' all retro... ;-)

[Ninja]

However tempting rebuilding seems (and I've been an advocate, reluctantly coming around to reality), JFJ clearly stated a couple weeks ago that it will never happen in Toronto. (I've looked for the link, but haven't been able to locate it.) Rebuilding on the fly is as good as it will get.

And throwing away the season in December is premature. We could easily be talking about a new three game winning streak.

As to what is wrong, I have no idea. Conditioning? Maybe, but these aren't tired legs losing the lead, but rather mental errors. Raycroft? Maybe, but Aubin suffered a similar team D meltdown, so that can't be the cause. JFJ? No, because this team was the surprise of the league a short while ago. P-Mo? I have my reservations, but I doubt motivation or tactics are behind the slump.

The Players is my answer. Wellwood shies away from contact like a pussy, and the opposition knows it. Poni hasn't rushed end to end in weeks. Steen doesn't seem to get it anymore. Belak has played 28 games. Kubina isn't up to speed. Bell gets scratched for no good reason. White can't cover his ass by scrambling and expect not to get burnt every once and a while. Bates isn't going to score 30, and neither is Kilger.

This group needs to figure it out themselves. Right quick!

[Wardo]

By definition, a team is a collection of multiple personalities contributing to the fortunes of a collective.

Therefore, all of the current Leaf problems are collective action problems, something that cannot be pinned on a sole non-contributor.

Is it a lack of scoring? Not on the powerplay, at least. Toronto is 7th in the league in powerplay scoring.
And Toronto is 2nd in the league in shots per game: 33.8. Looking good so far.
Toronto's ratio of even strength goals to PP goals is .89 - 19th in the league, which looks bad on the surface. This ratio means the majority of Toronto's goals are powerplay goals. Since about 70% of the game is played even strength, it means for most of the game, on even strength, Toronto is among the worst teams in the league in even-strength scoring - by RATIO.

However, ratio aside, Toronto is still scoring plenty of goals in absolute terms - they are actually 9th in the league in 5-5 scoring. They are 10th in goals per game overall, at 3.07/G. Any stat that is top-10 league-wide can't rate as a problem. So, we're still doing okay here.

However, Toronto has not won a single game this season when trailing after one period. They have won only one game when trailing after two. Scoring in the third is bad, 21st in the league. Since Toronto scores a lot of goals overall, it means they are crapping out at the end of games. Perhaps when it matters the most - especially when this stat is compared to the "wins when trailing after..." stat. It has to mean that Toronto stinks at clutch scoring so far this year.

Team defense is another key indicator. With the league's priciest defense, they are 24th in the league in overall team GAA: 3.20, and Andrew Raycroft is 24th in league GAA at 2.93. Their best plus defensemen are McCabe and Kaberle, at +2 each. Their worst, White, at -6.

They are 17th in the league on the PK, 83.8% (out of the top-16 - which kinda means, "the teams that don't make the playoffs.")

They are in the upper half, 13th overall, in shots allowed per game, 29.5, but more significantly, their starting goalie (Raycroft) has seen the 7th-most shots per game overall, with 660. This means that while their overall average is mediocre, since Raycroft has seen so much rubber, it means that more often than not, Toronto is getting blown out in shots against.

Goals against - no team has allowed more 3rd-period goals than Toronto, with 41. That means, when it matters most to hold a lead - Toronto hasn't.

To summarize, by the numbers, Toronto scores a lot of goals when it doesn't matter. They can't score when they need to, and worse, can't hold a lead when they have to. At gunpoint, based on the numbers, I would have to say overall team defense is currently the biggest concern.

These are the hallmarks of a team lacking experience, skill, conditioning, heart.