Things are fantastic so let's...worry about what might go wrong?

In the interest of ALF B balance – or maybe just in the interest of mixing things up on Monday – I wanted to jot down a few points of pre-emptive caution, a few observations gleaned from the Leafs' dazzling start that might hint at future problems.

But it's really hard to find fault with a team that could be 5-0 in a few hours. Honestly, it's like glancing at Megan Fox or Minka Kelly and saying, "I don't know, why don't you try something different with your hair."

The Leafs are on fire. They are flying. They are flying while on fire and that's not easy.

Nevertheless, in advance of tonight's home game against the Islanders, let's take a momentary break from all this euphoria in Leafs Nation and simply ask three questions:

1. How can the power play become more powerful?

The Leafs, despite being tied for first place, are 17th with the man advantage. In their first four games, they have scored 3 times on 20 chances. Now, granted, this makes the PP far superior to where it was last season, when it finished last. And, yes, it has certainly looked dangerous thus far.

And this is where I start to worry.

Why isn't the team shooting more? Why isn't puck possession on the PP, which is off-the-charts great, translating into more goals? As the team executes crisp passes, circling the puck around the opposition box with the precision of a Swiss watch, why is nobody parking in front of the net to create a screen or cause some havoc?

2. What kind of scoring can Clarke MacArthur realistically provide over the remaining 78 games?

Let's say an old, bearded time traveler from the future visited you this summer and said, "On the morning of October 18, 2010, a Leaf will be tied for the league lead with 5 goals." Here's the conversation that would follow:

You: "Phil Kessel?"

Time traveler: "No."

You: "Nikolai Kulemin?"

Time traveler: "No."

You: "Nazem Kadri?"

Time traveler: "Who?"

You: “Oh, for crying out loud, tell me already!"

Time traveler: "Clarke MacArthur."

At this point, you would've assumed the time traveler was actually a delusional hobo and chased him off your property with a hockey stick.

But here we are and MacArthur is finding openings with such frequency, it's as if his jersey is a cloaking device. He's finishing pretty, 1-2 plays with the confidence of Mario Lemieux. He's one-timing the puck as if his stick is a part of his body. And he's shooting with lethal proficiency.

MacArthur, who now holds the franchise record after scoring goals in his first four games, is responsible for 32 per cent of the Leafs' 16 goals this season. Thirty-two per cent!

And this is where I start to worry.

With 5 goals on 12 shots, his shooting percentage is 41.7. There's no way this can hold. So what kind of shooting percentage should we expect? Well, in the combined 208 games he played with Buffalo and Atlanta, his shooting percentage was 14.7.

If the Leafs are to continue winning, they better start getting some goals from people other than Kessel and MacArthur. I'm not naming names. (But here's a random picture.)

3. Can J.S. Giguere lead this team to the promised land?

I know, right? Am I totally and completely insane? How could I possibly include Jiggy in a list of concerns when the guy is 3-0? Even my wife says he's a great "goal stopper" and she still can't wrap her head around "icing."

In the season opener against Montreal, Giguere prevented the game from going into overtime with two heroic saves in the dying seconds. He didn't have much to do in his next start, a 5-1 win over Ottawa, in which he faced only 18 shots.

And this is where I start to worry.

On Friday against the Rangers, Giguere looked very shaky in the third period. The two goals he surrendered in that frame, which erased a 3-1 Leafs lead, were inexplicable, as if he suddenly lost his vision when the puck was within 5 feet of his mask.

His save percentage is .914, which sounds good. But right now it ranks 23 in the league. More telling: It is the worst among the Top 10 goalies with the most wins.

Whatever? Stats are misleading? We're only four games into the season? This guy is a proven winner? He's a leader in the room?

I don't disagree with any of that. But if Giguere is going to get the bulk of starts, as Ron Wilson has said, the team simply can't afford any late-game lapses, especially when The Monster is sitting on the bench and thinking, "Hey, I could have stopped that."

What are you concerned about?

PHOTO: CHRISOPHER PASATiIERI/NEWSDAY

Comments

[Ostrich lover]

Get a grip man. The Power Play has been excellent. I dont understand how people who get paid to watch hockey can be so deficient in their knowledge. It doesnt matter how many goals scored on the pp untiil a reasonable sample size has been collected. Believe me, if the Leafs continue to have such great puck possession and movement on the PP, this, over time, will result in one of the higher % in the NHL. People dont seem to understand that the correct way to judge a hockey team is by goal scoreing chances, not actual goals. Look at Last years playoffs, where an always dangerous Alexander Semin was stoned repeatedly by Halak and hit 5-10 goal posts. With just a smidgen of luck, and no change at all to his game, Semin has 8 goals in 7 games and the capitals easily defeat montreal and the vastly overated Halak. Unfortunatley, hockey is a results based viewing experiance and this many people and so called experts to make ridiculous assertations.. As for Macarthur, he will go goaless for 15 games, people will forget his hot start and Kadri will replace him. Now, I sincerly hope Im wrong, but I doubt it - history and the law of averages are not on Macarthurs side.

[Pyramid Power]

I share your concerns about Giguere. His stunning lapses in the third period in NYC on Friday had me reaching for the drinks, and pouring and quaffing hard as we Leafs fans sweated out the third period.

2003 Conn Smythe winner on a losing team. 2007 Cup winner. Two lousy seasons before he came to Toronto after having lost his job to Jonas Hiller in Anaheim. He really really makes me worry back there. Leafs fans of course are suffering, and will be suffering for some time to come, from nasty cases of PTSD (Post-Toskala-Stress Disorder) so this is just not helping our fragile mental and emotional health and psyches.

I am thinking let's turn to Gustavsson tonight. The Isles have the potential to score in bunches as they did last Monday afternoon against the Rangers winning 6-4. Both these goalies worry me deeply, and I am not sure who makes me fret more.

Kulemin, Versteeg, Grabovski and others have to start to help with the scoring.
Defence has been contributing, and I hope that gets better with Lebda in tonight for Gunnarsson. Got a goal last game from Komisarek, and one the game before from Beauchemin in Pittsburgh. I want to see Phaneuf shoot as little as possible on the PP as he has demonstrated he is unable to get his shots to the net or on the net. Get Kabby shooting even more (I am shocked I just wrote that, but it has been so nice to see Tomas shoot more this year), or get Kessel open on the left side for one timers a la Brett Hull.

Find a way tonight Toronto, and get it done in reg. time. Give us fans an easy game tonight please. Three of our four glorious victories have been tense nailbiting finishes to say the least. Crush the Isles! I very much want to be 5-0 tonight at about 9:45 p.m.

GO LEAFS GO!

[victor]

I will tell you want I don't like about the Leafs, and tell me if i am wrong. It's Ron Wilson's tie. I mean go shopping man.

Other that that it has been fun to watch and I just love their attitude and hard work. Keep it going. I am in Ottawa and it is just killing my buddies which of course makes it doubly fun.

[PlzDontHurtMe]

Looking at the raw, statistical data of the power play, they're not doing so well.
However, if you were following the games, as you may recall, there have been 2 goals scored literally seconds after the PP had ended, before the 5th man could get back into the action. So with a grain of salt, take that 3 for 20, and make it a 5** for 20, and see where that puts the Leafs in the PP standings. Not bad is it?

[Kenny Rogers]

Get a grip. It has only been four games, played against teams with missing players. Leafs will still have trouble making the playoffs this year. They look pretty good, but luck has helped them as well.

[ripper]

Ostrich lover the PP sucks what are you talking about?! We must be watching a different team. We have a chance to finish the Rangers and put Avery in his place with a 5 on 3 friday night and we weren't even close to scoring. 0 for 7 until an overtime power play making us 1 for 8. Puck possession on the power play can only mean so much. Passing it around the perimeter does not constitute a successful power play with high scoring chances. No one on our PP unit goes to the front of the net. Finally when Dion goes there we score but for the first 7 PPs no one goes to the net and we get no good opportunities. Phaneuf needs to be on the point firing one timers. My suggestion to fix the power play....send Armstrong out there to create havoc in front of the net since everyone else on our top line is too small/soft to get the job done.
GO LEAFS GO...5-0 tonight boys!!!

[We BeLeaf]

Basically what you're saying is the Leafs need to get better in certain aspects of their game based on the current stats. That goes without say, but if you compare this year with last then they are already ahead of the curve and even if their combined stats at the end of the season place them in the middle of the pack, that should at least give them a playoff spot.

Remember the Maple Leaf Forever!

[Chris]

The Leafs have completed < 5% of their season. Have you run out of things to write already? This is way too early to panic, or worry about things. You are powerless to do anything so why worry about it.

[red5]

Grant Fuhr and Curtis Joseph were some of the greatest examples of how save percentage can lie. It's more about the timely save, and Giguere kept the team in the game against Montreal, and he didn't let in a fourth against the Rangers. And that is the main thing.

[Jamie]

Clarke M. - I am not arguing that he will score 40 goals but it looks like hes getting more ice time with better players. He has taken 3 shots per game and assuming he reverts back to his 14.7% shooting and plays the remaining 78 games, that would equate to 34 goals over that span adding in his current 5 and rounding down that's 39 goal season... not too bad. Lets say his hot streak ends and he goes down to 10% shooting, thats still 23 more goals for a total of 29, I bet he gets 25 easily. Kulemin, Grabo, Armstrong, Versteeg and Bozak have 2 goals between them and I project at least 3 of them will score 20 so lots of people to start producing still.

[Fancy Pants]

I would really like to see Bozak and Grabovski score some goals as soon as possible. Not that they're not playing well. Just that if they linger for too long without a goal they might become frustrated. Plus, goals from as many different sources as possible is always a good thing.

[stephen barnett]

I'd say two of the three goals let in by Guigere in that Ranger game were either deflected and/or screened. Not making excuses but that is the reality. And by the way, Madison Garden lighting is poor at best. Update that building please!!

[Reality]

Checking to see what can be improved, when the team is going well, is more productive that having a panic attack when the team is in the middle of a slump. (Note: ALL teams have a slump at some point in the season, but they all do not panic.)

[Dan Monaghan]

Every year someone like McArthur shows up and dazzles until the rest of the league starts to pay attention. His track record shows he will disappear soon which means others better step up or it will be another plummet to the depths of the standings for the Leafs.

[Chuck]

I think its great that we have an article/blog post on what the Leafs can do better, not sure why so many people are acting so negatively to it.

Also, "Plz Don't Hurt Me" is right, if you add those two goals scored after the dying seconds of the PP's, then they be 5-20 (25%). Very respectable.

And I think the random picture should be Versteeg or Kulemin. Bozak is a setup man and I don't think he'll get more then 15 goals this year.

[d]

The thing that concerns me is the top line they spend too many entire shifts in their own end with the ineptitude to get the puck out. If either goalie can play goal we will find out over the year.

[Bobby]

My biggest worry is an injury. I love the way they are playing right now, but if someone goes out with an injury (despite the league's promise to crack down, head shots and dumb checks are still in the game) it could seriously disrupt the chemistry. I tried watching the Marlies on CBC yesterday - let's just say they left me very worried about the pool of replacements.

[Pyramid Power]

Lots of quality comments. I like the idea of sending Armstrong in to do a man's work in front of the net on the PP. Not getting done enough. Or send Phaneuf in there when we are really pressuring and controlling the puck, and have a Leafs forward drop back to the point. Versteeg? Risky but possibly worth it.

Good point by another poster about Toronto scoring two goals immediately after a penalty expired. Makes that stat jump up a little unofficially.

@d Yes, I have certainly noticed that too. The Bozak line has had some horrendous shifts in the defensive zone. No doubt. That has to get better.

I want to see Mikhail Grabovski hit the net twice tonight. Mike Brown too. Well, OK one goal from each would be nice.
And no pulling a Ron Tugnutt tonight OK Dwayne Roloson? Thank you very much.

GO LEAFS GO!

[KD]

If Phaneuf goes to the front of the net on the PP, why do you need to have a forward drop to the point? Why not have Phaneuf as a forward on the PP, with two shooting defenders, maybe Kaberle and Komisarek, on the points?

[Pyramid Power]

@KD Excellent. That is exactly what I actually want the Leafs to do. Pull Bozak and throw Phaneuf in up front on our first PP unit. Kaberle and Komisarek would be fine. Or Kabby and Schenn. Lebda and Kabby would be awesome given Lebda's offensive skills.

[mark]

I'm not too worried about anything at this point, but if I had to pick one concern, I'd have to say secondary scoring. The Grabovski/Kuliman/McAurther line has been excellent so far, but realistically I don't see McA continuing his hot streak and G & K have already demonstrated in the past that they are streaky too. We'll see. Remember, nobody expected Jose Bautista to hit over 50 home runs this year either. You never know what a change of scenary and opportunity can do for guys until it happens.

[Matt K]

PTSD!!! hilarious! if there are any doctors in TO that are willing to back it, I motion that PTSD be written into future medical textbooks.

[Pyramid Power]

@Matt K My doctor recognizes it as an illness for me. I get medication for it, and that helps a lot. LOL Or should I write ToskaLOL????

[Ostrich lover]

:Putting Phaneuf on forward on the PP is as dumb of an idea as making Kaberle a centre. He is the man with the hardest shot. If hes not getting through, then make adjustments. But dont give up on your best weapon because it didnt work for a few games.

[KD]

Sorry, Ostrich, I disagree (there's something new). Phaneuf is a big guy who's willing to stand there and take the abuse that comes his way. He's exactly the distraction they need up there on the PP. In the good old days, they always had someone who was big (or at least strong) who was willing to stand in front on the PP - Andreychuck is the first name that comes to mind. Even Domi did it for a while.

[Pyramid Power]

@Ostrich Lover Phaneuf proved once again on multiple occasions last night that he is not creative or imaginative enough to find a way to get his shots thru to the net or on net. Multiple missed chances. Throw him up front as an experiment and see what happens with him standing in front of the net screening the goalie.
How could that possibly be a dumb idea? Hardest shot is unimportant, just get the shot thru, low and on net. He can't do it on the PP, or during 5 on 5 play. Pbaneuf and his hard shot not our best weapon, and this deficiency in Phaneuf's game has been going on since he arrived in Toronto and I assume before that in Calgary.

[Pyramid Power]

Our best offensive weapon is Phil Kessel. Our best defensive weapon is a hot Giggy or Gus.