Guest Post: An MLSE conspiracy theory

 

What If Winning It All Means Losing Fans?

BY BRIAN KALLION

 

There's been a lot of talk recently about Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment. Specifically, is winning or profit their goal? But I would like to propose another theory: Fear is a large motivator (or de-motivator) in the thinking of MLSE.

Any of us over 30 remembers the great Blue Jays run of the 80s and early 90s, culminating in the last major championship seen around these parts. All of my friends say the same thing: The strike of 1994 killed their interest in baseball. But I would say the '92 and '93 championships were strike one and two, if you will.

We were all about the thrill of the chase and dropped out once the chase was over.

I think MLSE will always be a bit nervous about seeing the same kind of success befalling them. Are we die-hard Leaf fans or are we just hanging on for the thrill of the chase? Maybe we won't stop being fans but I think the nature of our fandom would change significantly if the Leafs won it all.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the season ticket renewal rate drop drastically. Even if others jumped in to fill the void, would it be a stretch to suggest that the season ticket waiting list gets cut in half? And what about TV ratings and merchandise sales? Something would change there too.

Of course, there's no way to confirm or deny this theory until the Leafs actually do win. However, what I'm saying is nobody really knows what a post-Cup Toronto would be like.

Leaf fans have lived through years of drought and we can't say what we would do if it started to rain. So maybe MLSE, on some level, fears this unknown. Maybe they fear the potential of a drastically different attitude coming from their fans. Maybe this is also why they will do everything they can to prevent a second team in this market – another big unknown for them.

So the company will continue to walk a fine line between (measured) success and failure, knowing this will keep our attention at status quo. At this point, all we as fans can hope for is that Brian Burke doesn't subscribe to this theory and that he has the autonomy to hopefully drag this team and its fans into the great unknown.

 

Brian Kallion is a Toronto-born and raised IT worker and cat lover.  He lives a stone's throw away from the ACC but unfortunately faces the wrong direction.

 

 

MAIN IMAGE: SHUTTERSTOCK

Comments

[Greg]

I say wrong.
See New York Yankees.

[Ridley Wetton]

Absolutely ridiculous theory, the merchandise value of a win would be incredible! And the comparison to the Blue Jays is bad, baseball is not #1 in Toronto, a better comparison would be the Red Sox...and I don't think their attendance is dropping!!!!

[John]

I would TOTALLY discount this theory ! Why ? Because Toronto is HANDS DOWN a hockey town, argueably the biggest hockey market in the NHL. Another comment on here has it exactly right. Look at the Boston red sox, a baseball town 1st ! They finally win a world series and they are as popular as ever !

Other sports teams like the Jays and Raptors have to win to attract the fans but the Leafs dont. When u have a fan base called Leafs nation u know a cup win would just bring interest in the Leafs to an all time high !!

[Pyramid Power]

Agree in full with all posters above. Toronto is a hockey town, Toronto is HOCKEYTOWN! The real Hockeytown.
And Burke would not have taken the job had he not been given assurances from MLSE and Peddie that there would be no meddling. He has carte blanche to spend to the cap, and he runs the team as he sees fit.
Burke definitely does not ".....subscribe to this theory...." and he has full autonomy from MLSE.

[We BeLeaf]

I believe you missed the boat on your article Brian. Simply put, when the Leafs win the Cup, there will be a reaffirmation of the fans worldwide. You see, it's not just the GTA, it's across this great country in every province (excluding Quebec) where there resides legions of Leafs fans. Even in nations where there is no hockey there are Leafs fans! This blog and many other Leafs blogs are proof of this. One important question you forget to ask is, "what are the benefits not only to MLSE, but to the entire league for having the Leafs win?"

[Chad]

Brian, one thing you failed to mention regarding the Jays post-World Series years..........they've been no where near the competitive level that they were at between 1989 - 1993. In other words, they've sucked! And in a city that's not necessarily a baseball city (like Boston, New York, etc.), when you lose you don't draw squat!

[Eric]

Another vote for ridiculous. I agree with Ken Dryden when he said Torontonians attend games and support the team out of habit, not much else. That won't change win or lose.

[Joe]

I don't necessarily disagree. But I think the fear of winning is more felt by the MEDIA than the team itself. I think the team will sell tickets for the foreseeable future regardless of how successful the team is. But it's the media that benefits from the losing. What are they going to do when can't use 1967 to sell papers anymore? When the inferiority complex among the fanbase is diffused and they don't have to listen to trolls repeatedly shouting about 1967 and how it's everyone's fault but their own? I'm sure there are a few writers and mediatypes who fear that day like the plague. They NEED 1967; it is their provider. I'm not sure MLSE is driven to win but I don't think they're driven to lose either. The media, meanwhile, is another story altogether. For them the losing is a gold mine. Has been for at least 20 years.

[Jeff]

@ Chad
Who is Ken Dryden anyway?

Why do you think that anyone values his opinion on anything related to our Leafs?

Is he not an 'appointed' Senator or something? WHO CARES?

[Sam]

Is this a serious column?

The 13 times the Leafs won the Cup, did the fans go away?

Clearly not since we're sitting here still talking about them.

[steve]

This whole argument is a logical fallacy. The premise is that "MLSE is a corporation that only cares about profits and not winning". The conclusion that a mediocre team maximizes profit is false (see example below)

The best team possible would go 82-0, claiming home ice throughout the playoffs, and then win 4 series' 4 games - 3, maximizing home playoff games. It is given that an 82-0 team would sell out every night (as it's a sell out every night anyway). Thus, profit is maximized by the best team.

Then the argument becomes that revenue would drop-off in year two because of "let down". False. an 82-0 team in year two would have INCREASED revenue from higher ticket prices due to more ticket demand. Not to mention the increased revenue from being a Stanley Cup Champion. In fact, the more Stanley Cups the team won, the more and more profits would increase. So the logical conclusion is that the BEST POSSIBLE TEAM generates the highest profit, which is consistent with the premise. So, Winning and Profit are directly correlated, more winning = more profit. The end.

[bill l]

Think of a donkey with a carrot dangling in front...that donkey keeps walking and walking following the carrot.

Now, substitute that carrot for a Stanley Cup and the donkey for Leaf fans...

[Tom/NB]

winning would add to the leafs profits with very minimal costs. Adding 12 playoff home dates would increase revenues by about $30 mill (2.5 per game) while the only costs would be for staff and supplies - no player costs except for trophy bonuses.

Additional revenue would come from rocketing TV revenues. The Champion level Leafs could esily double their TV revenues via Leafs TV and the various sports channels. the Loser Leafs draw very well - the Chanpion Leafs would be outstanding - and this could result in NESN/MSG Network levels of revenues.

Finally, Champion Leafs are a much more valuable property for sale than would be Loser leafs. If the Loser leafs are worth $1 billion (with all theri loser parts like the Raptures, the Failure Club and really expensive estates), Champion Leafs would be worth much more...

[James Jack]

Interesting theory Brian, but I don't buy it. Leaf fans are hungry for a cup and they are not going to be satisfied with only one. Leaf fans will not be satisfied until this franchise becomes a perennial contender like the Yankees, Red Sox, Red Wings etc. The most important thing to realize about Leaf fans are their acute knowledge of the passion of playoff hockey and that is one "almost making it" has been very important to Leaf fans as well. Give us playoffs, and give us playoff victories, that's all we ask.

[Graham]

What the author is suggesting is not that the fans disappear because the Leafs won the cup, but rather they begin to lose interest if there are losing years afterward. Suddenly the standards are raised, and mediocrity is no longer acceptable.

Pre-lockout, MLSE had a history of signing over-the-hill players who gave the impression of trying to win but didn't actually build the best team despite a HUGE budget advantage over the rest of the league. The comparisons to the Yankees fall apart there, because they never spent big to buy a cup.

For me, there is no overt conspiracy to 'not win', but there is a lack of desire to do so among the ownership. Look at Mike Ilich in Detroit. With far less money, he built a dynasty through shrewd long-term thinking. What he did have was enough money to spend on good players and an excellent scouting staff. MLSE has never demonstrated any commitment to winning beyond stupid contracts for fan favourites like Tie Domi.

A totally plausible theory, and it's a shame Leaf fans don't hold the owners accountable for their lack of effort.

[Arthur Bailey]

The only way this argument can have any merit is if Toronto sports fans, and in this case, Maple Leaf fans, are different from fans in other markets.

I am sure both Anaheim and Carolina lost fans after winning the cup, because the following season both teams failed to make the playoffs... and those are not huge hockey markets to begin with.

Has Chicago lost any fans? They gained fans over the last couple of years with strong playoff runs and winning it all last season, and have come out strong this season, so I don't expect any drop off in fan support (time will tell).

Is Toronto more like an Anaheim/Carolina, or a Chicago?

I'd say Neither. It is like a New York.

How did Madison Square Gardens fare after the 1994 Cup win of the Rangers, followed by a lack of playoff caliber teams? I don't have the stats, but I find it hard to believe they lost any fan support.

Fans are eager for the back to back championships, or the dynastic dominance in a 10 year period. I don't think fans would give up on their fandom after a single championship.

Winning teams are entertaining to watch. That kind of entertainment won't push fans away, but keep them coming back for more.

Another team in their market, that is definitely something MLSE should fear. I know if Winnipeg got a team again, I would switch allegiance in a heart beat (mostly because the Leafs ownership has indicated to me that they don't care about winning, and I don't know if they ever will.)

[Eric]

@Jeff re: Ken Dryden

Who is Ken Dryden?!?! One of the best goalies to ever play the game. Leafs executive 1997 - 2004. While not the most colourful personality, undeniably very intelligent.

He was never appointed and is not a senator. He was elected MP for York Centre in 2004 and he's been re-elected twice since.

He knows ten times more more about hockey and the Leafs than anyone posting comments here, that's for sure. While one might not agree with his opinions, they deserve consideration.

[sparky chewbarky]

"Yer bum's out the window on this one, Brian.
Here's a better conspiracy theory...
The Leaf's lousy performance over the last while, has actually been a benefit to MLS&E as they build interest in their other brands.
Do you think that the Craptors & NFG: oops, sorry: the Raptors and TFC, would get much pub if the Leafs were perennial contenders?
Unfortunately for us Leaf fans, it's not an entirely bad thing for MLS&E if the Leafs suck.

[Steve G]

You're all missing the key point here: No one reading this blog will live long enough to find out.

[koho]

All I'd like to know is who turned the computers on for you people today and is anybody there with you to remind you to breathe?

The blog was obviously tongue and cheek. The closing line says it all!

"At this point, all we as fans can hope for is that Brian Burke doesn't subscribe to this theory and that he has the autonomy to hopefully drag this team and its fans into the great unknown."

It's too bad your humour was lost on them Brian and if it's any consolation to you I agree BTW, Leafs Nation really needs to lighten up!

[Jeff]

@ Art
Ken Dryden was a great goalie who played for the enemy!
I still wonder why MLSE EVER hired him as an exec. for our Leafs. JFJ too?
What did he do to improve our Leafs?
How did he demonstrate this so-called Hockey intelligence during his stay?
Ten times more about Hockey....what.. his last win as a goalie, a total FAILURE as an exec.! MP..... well good luck York!
BTW, there is no level to intelligent, either you are or you are not, guess where I estimate your Hockey knowledge?
After a millisecond of consideration...who cares about Dryden's opinions!!

[red5]

@Jeff - considering you can't even quote the correct poster, I don't think you should be questioning the intelligence of other posters. Dryden steered the franchise through some turbulent times off-ice, and I would suggest checking the record of the team through that time period (which included two conference finals). Try reading Dryden's books one day.

[Brian Kallion]

I was in DC over the weekend and got stuck at a Hyatt with really crappy Internet (a Hyatt!), so I haven't been able to respond to the vitriol until recently. I doubt anybody is reading this page anymore but that's okay, it only guarantees that I get the last word.

The essence of my theory is this: if the Leafs don't win a Cup, we know exactly what will happen. We've lived it for years. But, if, IF, they did win, my position is that nobody really knows what will happen long-term, including MLSE. So why face the unknown when the known is pretty good from their perspective?

Sure, there would be that euphoria, and in the short-term, the Leafs would be in a spotlight of unimaginable brightness. I've heard Bill Simmons of ESPN call it the "five-year grace period," where life is awesome regardless of what the Leafs do. For five years. But what happens afterwards? What happens if ten, fifteen years pass by without an encore? Again, look at the Jays. Does our generation want to put ourselves through another potentially 43-year drought, or will we just pay less attention and focus on something else? The answer will be different for everybody. Anyway, that's my point that hardly anybody agrees with but oh well.

Specific rebuttals:

@John / Pyramid Power - Hockey town? How are the Marlies/Majors/Battalion doing?

@TomNB - I think MLSE is already an MSG/NESN-level operation right now.

@James Jack - Make up your mind... a Cup or playoff games? Which do you want?

@Arthur Bailey - Rangers are a VERY interesting comparison. 16 years now. I don't think they're as high-profile now as they used to be back when they were THE drought. But I don't have the stats either.

@sparky - I don't agree with you but I would LOVE it if you were right.

Thanks everybody, and most of all, thanks Vinay for the wild ride. Talk to you throughout the year, I'm not going anywhere!

[Vinay Menon]

@Brian Kallion: Thanks for writing this provocative post. And good on you for coming in here to defend your good name.