When a Leafs fan confronts a statistician

I’m guessing you read this story?

Me too. And you know what? It bothered me so much I was forced to conduct an investigation this morning. So I tracked down Andrew Bailey, the statistician responsible for crunching the gloomy numbers.

Without further ado, here is our email exchange:

From: Vinay Menon
To: Andrew Bailey
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 11:16 AM
Subject: Questions about your Leafs statistical analysis...

Good morning, Andrew. I read today's story about how the Leafs are not likely to make the playoffs this season based on a statistical analysis of the past 15 years. I have some problems with the methodology. The Leafs now have 19 points. But with the exception of Boston, they have played fewer games than any other Eastern Conference team above them in the standings. So what would the probability of making the playoffs become if they had 20 points or 21 points, respectively?

From: Andrew Bailey
To: Vinay Menon
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 11:25 AM
Subject: Questions about your Leafs statistical analysis... 

Fine point, Mr. Menon. It is an imperfect experiment to be sure, but it is only hockey and it is meant to be fun. Over the last 15 seasons the average number of games played at Thanksgiving is 22, a couple more than the Leafs have currently played, true. The numbers suggest that if they could eke out a few more points with these "games in hand" the chance of making the playoffs would increase from their current predicament: 19 points = 12%, up to 20 points = 46%, or even 21 points = 59%.

From: Vinay Menon
To: Andrew Bailey
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 11:33 AM
Subject: Questions about your Leafs statistical analysis... 

Wow. Sir, I remind you this exchange is on the record. Did you just say your data was "imperfect"? And did you just say this was "fun"? Your data caused me to pour Baileys in my coffee this morning. Also, I just noticed your surname. Is your family related to this maker of fine Irish Cream?

From: Andrew Bailey
To: Vinay Menon
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 11:41 AM
Subject: Questions about your Leafs statistical analysis... 

The data is perfect. The experiment is NOT. In a perfect world, all teams would have the same number of games played but it was far easier to grab NHL standings from Thanksgivings past rather than figure out everyone's point totals after 22 games.  And yes this was meant to be fun, it is after all just analysis of hockey records, not hospital wait times, arrest reports or something else important.

From: Vinay Menon
To: Andrew Bailey
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 11:43 AM
Subject: Questions about your Leafs statistical analysis...

Okay. So you don't want to admit you're related to the liquor company. Fine. Let me ask you something else about your “perfect” data. Of these 19-point teams you analyzed, how many started the season 4-0 and went into U.S. Thanksgiving on a 3-1 streak? 

From: Andrew Bailey
To: Vinay Menon
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 11:53 AM
Subject: Questions about your Leafs statistical analysis...

Mr. Menon, please leave my heritage out of this discussion. The Leafs now have 19 points, regardless of hot starts or current streaks. 19 points at Thanksgiving does NOT bode well for a playoff spot at the end of the year. I wish I could spin more positive, but the fact is I am a statistician NOT a magician.

From: Vinay Menon
To: Andrew Bailey
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 11:58 AM
Subject: Questions about your Leafs statistical analysis...

Oh, I must disagree. You ARE a magician. You are goddamn David Copperfield: “Hey, look at me! I’m Andrew Bailey! Watch me make all these inconvenient truths vanish with a wave of my hand! Watch me pull this “fun” excuse from an empty hat!”

Here’s another question for you, sir: Of these 19-point teams you analyzed, how many had a roster that had changed by more than 70 per cent from opening day the previous season?

From: Andrew Bailey
To: Vinay Menon
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 12:07 PM
Subject: Questions about your Leafs statistical analysis...

Roster changes were not part of this analysis. The Leafs DO have 2 more points this year than they did at last year's Thanksgiving and in 2002 they had only 20 points at Thanksgiving and DID make it into the post-season. They could do it again this year, it's unlikely, but anything is possible – however, I would suggest keeping the Baileys close by.

From: Vinay Menon
To: Andrew Bailey
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 12:15 PM
Subject: Questions about your Leafs statistical analysis...

You are a very confusing magician. I am very confused. You’ve already said, on the record, that your experiment sucks rotten lemons. Basically, that’s what you said. And you’ve already said that if the Leafs had two more points right now – a very reasonable hypothetical adjunct considering their games on hand – the probability of making the playoffs would shoot up from 12 per cent to 59 PER CENT!!! Sir, before conducting this interview I was forced to put on my investigative journalist cap. Okay, it wasn’t mine. I borrowed it. Anyway, my research indicates you live in Buffalo – is this correct?

From: Andrew Bailey
To: Vinay Menon
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 12:24 PM
Subject: Questions about your Leafs statistical analysis...

Yes it is correct, I live in Buffalo and please return Kevin Donovan's cap.  Quite honestly, Mr.Menon, if I want to interact with drunken, belligerent, delusional Leafs fans I will just head down to HSBC Arena tomorrow night and take in the Leafs/Sabres game. Thank you for your email.

From: Vinay Menon
To: Andrew Bailey
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 12:32 PM
Subject: Questions about your Leafs statistical analysis...

Funny you should mention the Sabres. I'd like to get your response to this photo I just obtained. Is this you at last night's Pittsburgh-Buffalo game? And is that your son wearing a Sabres jersey? Because if it is, I'm afraid there is a possible conflict of interest when you analyze Leafs data... You're a Sabres fan! Look at your toque!

Yeah, I never heard back. But I rest my case.

Comments

[We BeLeaf]

Vinay, that was absolutely hilarious! Worthy of some sort of literary distinction to be sure! You sir, have made my day after reading this! Cheers to all in Leaf Nation!

[Nik Culoman]

These stories that this "Glorious" newspaper prints are so full of holes it's crazy. Is it just me or did I read that if the Leafs had 18 points today they would have a 39% or chance of making the playoffs?

Why wouldn't this so called study include as part of its fact finding include the 2 games the Leafs have in hand on many of the teams above them? This was no article written for fun, it is more of the negative crap I have been hounding on for weeks.

Vinay, thank you for one hell of a great blog! The nonsense in this article boggles my mind. I have a statistic for you...100% of the writters at this newspaper lie or twist the truth 100% of the time.....(Funny my stats are better than Andrew Bailey's)

[Tom]

This is the funniest column/blog in the Toronto Star, hands down. :D

[Pyramid Power]

Great stuff Vinay!

I can't believe the headline posted in the Star though, "Leafs unlikely to make the playoffs". I will log onto this paper again when that headline gets yanked, and Kevin McGran's story gets yanked. What a massive downer to come onto and read about.
The very last thing I want to read about are a bunch of numbers say Toronto has no chance. Pathetic.
I will never ever ever ever ever ever read a single article by Kevin McGran again, and neither will I EVER check into his live Leaf blog. Sickening.

[CPH]

Vinay, you're the best! You capture the self-mockery (combined with dead seriousness) of the true Leaf fan. Don't let them break your spirit.

[We BeLeaf]

C'mon PP, I understand your resentment, but they're just numbers and do not necessarily represent truth. Anyone can formulate stats and skew the numbers however they choose. If you want proof, just ask anyone who invested in Enron, or with Bernie Madoff....

Cheers to you my friend!

[Leafer]

Perhaps the Leafs should give up a point and sit at 18 points morning. Their chances of making the playoffs would more than double from 12% to 30%.

[Suzanne K. Taylor]

I'm still trying to figure out your point. The article talks about standings at Thanksgiving, and no one in hockey seems to be concerned about how the number of games played figures in. It seems that there is no problem with Bailey's numbers at all, but you do seem to fault him for not compiling the stats that you wanted, and expressing them in a way to spin them in favour of the Leafs.

[Rob]

I thought the best part of the exchange was in Mr. Bailey's first response. This snip:

"...if they could eek out a few more points..."

Was he being clever and cute, deliberately misspelling eke so that it would be a double entendre of sorts, suggesting that the Leaf predicament is 'eek worthy'? (my invention).

Maybe he just can't spell. In which case, you might wonder, can he crunch numbers accurately?

VM Replies: I just fixed that typo. Any spelling mistakes in that exchange are my fault. As the email time stamps indicate, that was a quick exchange and I told Andrew I would clean up typos.

[Pyramid Power]

@We BeLeaf I logged onto this paper many many hours ago to read some stories about Toronto, the world etc..... and make some comments about yesterday's superb blog by Vinay.
Instead what do my eyes see?
A wildly negative article by Kevin McGran, AND the horrid boring story played up in the headlines by the Star's editors.
I hereby challenge Kevin and the Star editor who put this in their online headlines to come on here, and explain themselves. Garbage story. Garbage headline.
Rosie DiManno had a fun column about Schenn. Could McGran not have found something positive to write about beyond spewing numbers? He comes across as a numbers geek and not a Leafs beat reporter. Again, pathetic.
Back to football. Pats and Lions locked up in a good game. Middle of the night over here.
Cheers to you and Vinay and true Leaf fans. Clearly McGran and the editor who made the call to headline that story are NOT!

[red5]

Wow, I almost had Bailey's coming out of my nose!! Great blog, Vinay. Think you can tackle today's column from Feschuk next?

[Ahsan Zaidi]

Vinay, ur the man !
As I recommended to my friends earlier in the year, your blog is Essential Reading and should be on every syllablus !

[Al]

Great stuff Venon!! Here's to a 59% chance after this weekend! (quaffs some Bailey's)

...lol "leave my heritage out of it"... you guys should take this act on the road!

[Al]

Umm... I just wrote "Venon". I guess thats Vinay + Menon.

Sweet I just gave you a single name, like Madonna.

VM Replies: Thanks! Now I need her money.

[Nate]

Leafs Blow!

and you fans have yours heads pretty far up each others rear ends.

Here's to another year of not making the playoffs no matter what numbers are crunched.

[Die Hard Leafs Fan]

VINAY YOU ARE THE MAN!!!! If I ever see you I am buying you a beer...No a pitcher....No a KEG!!!! You sir are a gem, and you have made my day. CHEERS!!!

[HABS WIN AGAIN]

FACT - LEAFS PROBABLY WON'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS. I DON'T NEED A MATHEMATICIAN TO TELL ME THIS.

[leafland'r]

"Statistically", with the Leafs near 20 points, I'm simply believing my Bailey's (glass) to be half full.

[Shaun]

Vinay, keep up the awesome/hilarious work.

[Kyle B]

Haha, very nice and proves that stats cab be used to prove any argument you want. And to ignore the games in hand is inexcusable for someone who calls themselves a statistician. You cant compare a team with 24 games to a team with 20 games and say how the other team is better since in 4 more games they have 1 more point.

Check out my NHL 1/4 season review : tinyurl.com/2bvno7y

[NickM]

THAT was needlessly belligerent.

[Bryan S.]

The line, "Your data caused me to pour Bailey's in my coffee this morning," made me laugh out loud at work. It was worth the embarrassment.

[MJB]

this was hilarious - cheers. going to sabres - leafs tomorrow.......... GLG

[Vinay Menon]

As always, thanks for your comments. I had to close this thread for a bit earlier tonight as there was suddenly a wave of anti-Leaf trolls. Also, I don’t want to leave any unfair or misleading impressions. Andrew Bailey is an ace statistician. He does important journalistic work and he was a good sport to let me have some fun with today’s story. That piece left a bad taste in my mouth and I was simply reacting to that bad taste as a Leafs fan.

[Tom]

If you don't want a bad taste in your mouth maybe you shouldn't drink coffee with Bailey's. :P

VM Replies: Well played, sir.

[Coach Willie]

Next season the Leafs should play more games before American Thanksgiving Day to increase their chance of making the playoffs.

[victor]

ALRIGHT! THAT"s IT! Can we please cancel the last election and have a new one. MENON FOR MAYOR!! VINAY for VICEROY! VM FOR PM!!
Where do I send my campaign donation?

Oh and a litttle peppermint Schnapps and and some crown royal with the Bailey's in your coffe and you have a wonderful café royal.

Go Leafs Go!

[Leaf Hate Nation]

Seriously! The statitions have been doing these calculation every year since the lockout......and they have never been wrong. Have they? Did they make the playoffs since the lockout? NNNNOOOOO. Leaf fans have to be one of the dumbest bunch of people known to man. It just makes my day knowing that Leaf fans still have hope about the playoffs. There is no chance in hell that they will ever make it, so lets come to grips with reallity Leaf fans. Your organization has made the worst decisions and trades in the last 15 years. When you on relying on Kessel and Millhouse "Kaberle" to bring you to the promise land......you have a big disappointment ahead of you. Just sucks that you have to give away your first pick again.......tisk tisk tisk. What a shameful organization.

Leafs Hate Nation

VM Replies: Millhouse? Never mind the playoffs. You need to come up with new nicknames for every player.

[pn]

Here's my theory:

Tetchiness of Leaf fans is in direct inverse proportion to the Leaf's chances of making the playoffs.

If my theory is correct, then reading the exchange above leaves me with precious little hope for this year's squad. Way to sink my hopes, Mr. Menon!

VM Replies: Ah... sorry?

[Nick Young37]

That was HILARIOUS.

What a great read. And I don't know if I counted wrong...but in 2009, the Leafs had 23 games played before American thanksgiving. With two less points. That's a 3 game difference to today.

His article was a joke. I hope we thrash his beloved Sabres tonight.

[Nik Culoman]

Leaf nation these stats are so misleading there truly is no reason to get up in arms. This is the media in Toronto we are talking about, nothing this team does even winning a cup will ever make these "writters" happy.

Here are my issues with these statistics...

1) They say we are at the 20 game point of the season...For some teams yes it is...The leafs have only player 18 games...Won't play their 20th game until tomorrow.....Even if they win one of the two they will be at 21 points after 20 games and their chances improve and the teams that are ahead of would find themselves in that 12% category.

2) Like I stated in my first post...How does a team with 18 points going into this weekend have a 30% of making the playoffs, but a team with 19 points go down to 12%?????

3) These stats don't take into account for injuries, trades, etc....Anything can happen, and that's why they play the games........

To the people who say the leafs don't have prospects, draft well or have talent in the minors....May I introduce you the likes of Kadri, Rynnas, The Monster, Schenn, McKeeg, Blacker, D'Amigo, Aulie, Bozak, Reimer, Mueller, Nicholls, ect...They may not have drafted some of these guys, but Burke has mined for talent from everywhere.....I maybe mistaken...But aren't the Leafs the youngest team in the league???

This team and organization is coming together, yes slower than some would want...But the talent pool is growing and there is light at the eand of a dark era in Leafland.

In closing, thank god the games are played on the ice and not in the pages of a tabloid like the Toronto Star.

VM Replies: Why must you always end with a shot at the Toronto Star? Don't you know we love you? Don't you know we care about this world?

[LT73]

I now have you bookmarked.
.
Keep up the good work Vinay!

[kneeboard85]

I'm no genius but why not use points per game? No advantage there, what would the leafs probability be? I'll tell you. The 8th place eastern team has averaged 90 points over the past 10 seasons. The leafs are on pace for 77.9 points BUT 8th place Atlanta is on pace for 86.1 and 7th place Rangers are on pace for 88.6, so you could argue this is an easier year than most to snatch 8th place.

If the leafs are to hit the 90 point average set by the past 10 years of 8th place eastern teams than that means that they need to go something to the tune of 35-26-1 in their remaining 62 games. I feel this team has certainly showed times when this is a reachable number and they may not even need to perform to that record if the other middle of the pack teams continue playing at the pace they are.

GO LEAFS GO AND BOO BAILEY BOO

[Ryan Conacher]

I'm impressed. Love the quick-witted exchange. Keep it up. One thing, could you please critique (ahem, criticize) that blasted Leafs' theme song - they are not Canada's team. It's embarrassing.

[Jamie]

People can come up statistics to prove anything... Forfty percent of all people know that - Homer Simpson

[Jeff Landeen]

ugh...really? This is what professional journalism reads like in 2010. While I still love the Leafs....I'm just not a huge sports fan and only watch a few games a year in total on TV. I just cannot figure out who sounds worse in this email exchange, the statistician or the reporter.

VM Replies: Jeff, I appreciate you taking time to read and comment. But, honestly, coming to this blog for “professional journalism” is like going to 7-Eleven for lumber.

[Geoff Read]

Vinay,

Funny column. But you know what I don't understand? The view of many fans who post on this blog that it's the media's role to be a cheerleader for the home team. "Why don't you write something positive?" Get a grip people: it's the media's job to provide reporting and analysis, not to wave the flag for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

[Victor]

HEY LEAF BASHERS, GO AWAY! This blog is not for you so GO AWAY! Find your space with Damien Cox or Steve Simmons or someone more objective. I will read you there. Leave my man Vinay alone. He's being a fan and you are being a BULLY! This blog is not interested in hearing your vebal diarhea. We are biased towards the boys in blue and do want you here. We may be simpletons and we may be fools for cheering on our teams but we are not BULLIES like you. What is it with you? Clearly you are compensating for something . Obviously there is something down there tiny enough that is creating difficulty between you and the girl across the street. Go away and get your enlargement if you must, but the important thing is to GO AWEAY!.

I got your back VM!

VM fo PM!!

VM Replies: Victor, you need to change your screen name to "Ken Baumgartner." You are now my Ken Baumgartner.

[SaintPaddy]

VINAY.....DUDE!!!
This is the most awsome BLOG ever. You are able to articulate the thoughts and feelings of true Leaf fans, with a pleasurable and witty read.

Keep up the good work! GO LEAFS GO!!!!!!

[victor]

Hey Geoff, you have to learn how to spell your name properly. It's G-O A-W-A-Y as in his job is to report on soccer for the media, he blogs on the leafs as a Leafs fan, and he is allowed to too, I said so. Who cares if he gets paid to be a leafs fan. You could say he is a professional Toronto Maple Leaf...Fan. That's a dream job really. You can almost stay Mr can't spell your name right, because you thought it was funny and it wasn't totally a bash, but man you have some repenting to do for calling him out like, that if you want to stay here.

Vinay for Viceroy!!

I just finished my café royale... deeeelicious!

[Michael O'Riordan]

This blog is the worst! I pick up the Star to read the sports section, and to get an accurate, fairly objective take on the Leafs from the reporters and columnists (opinion-based, I know).

If I want to hear the deluded thoughts of a "fan" conned by MLSE I can tune into the broadcast with Andy Frost on AM 640 (not sure, maybe it's the FAN). At least I know Robert from Mississauga, Dan from Woodbridge, and even Frank from Buffalo, aren't getting paid by a great Toronto newspaper to push propaganda better suited for Leafs TV.

Vinay, you're doing yourself a disservice -- you're a great columnist! I loved reading your stuff before, and still do, but this Leaf Fan nonsense I can't stomach. Not for a team this bad, one unlikely to make the playoffs again.

Best,

M

VM Replies: Thanks for your note, Michael. Even if it just left a gaping hole in my soul.

[Mikey Air]

That's it, after this pathetic attempt to prop up your leafs (and insult an innocent statistician in the process) I will NEVER read ANYTHING by Vinay Menon again.

Absolutely pathetic.

Mr. Bailey had it right with his comment on drunk, beligerent, delusional leaf fans.

PS: obviously VM was either drunk or just plain stupid if he actually thinks what team you cheer for affect the analysis of statistics.

VM Replies: Sorry to see you go, Mikey Air. PS: My wife is voting for "just plain stupid."

[Robert]

Win in Buffalo and make the playoffs, lose in Buffalo end of season.

[Tim]

What does the statistician say about the Chicago Blackhawks, the defending Stanley Cup Champions who - at the time of US Thanksgiving - are at 11-11-2 (.500 at a 24 game mark) and currently out of the playoffs sitting at 9th in the Western Conference ?

[Moe Green]

Let's look at the cold hard facts. Fact: The Leafs have to win, on average, three out of every five games for the rest of the season to reach 92 points and a likely place in the playoffs. Fact: It's a daunting task for any team but stranger things have happened. Fact: The odds are distinctly stacked against them. Fact: The Leafs are overdue for a playoff run. Fact: Small streaks can change things dramatically. Fact: Leafs have already had their losing streak. Fact: The team is just starting to fire on all cylinders. Fact: In light of the cold hard facts, I am 100% confident that the Leafs will make the playoffs this season. How can I be so sure of this you ask? It's easy.. Instinct!

VM Replies: I've said it once and I will say it again: You should be writing this blog.

[Tom]

If people are actually incapable of detecting the humor in the blog post, then.. well, I don't know. I'd say I've lost faith in humanity, but I've said that so many times in the last few years you could call me an atheist.

p.s. note to people taking this seriously: Reading comprehension is your friend. Your friend! If I have to dissect every sentence in this post to illustrate why you should not take it as seriously as

"That's it, after this pathetic attempt to prop up your leafs (and insult an innocent statistician in the process) I will NEVER read ANYTHING by Vinay Menon again.

Absolutely pathetic.

Mr. Bailey had it right with his comment on drunk, beligerent, delusional leaf fans.

PS: obviously VM was either drunk or just plain stupid if he actually thinks what team you cheer for affect the analysis of statistics."

then I am forced to wonder how so many of you managed to navigate to this area in the first place without having your hands held.

[Ken Baumgartner]

Hey Mikey. SEE YA!!! We don't want you anyway! Don't worry about your soul Vinay, Michael O'somebody or another is just being a BULLY. Clearly he has been left naked and wanting by the girl next door, so to compensate he has to pick on the Leaf fan. His tinky winky has been brusied. I think it was you who suggested that the stanley cup parade be routed right past Michael O'cry me a river's door step. On the way past we can drop him of a copy of "Chicken Soup for the Leaf Basher's Soul".

I here there's a bi-election going on somewhere soon. I think you can win.

Go Leafs go, beat Buffalo tonight.

[Mikey Air]

Tom - if you have two people willing to take each other on, then you have a fight. If you have one person who wants to fight, and one who doesn't fight back, you just have a beating. In the case of the article, VM wanted to play, Mr. Bailey wanted to be serious. VM should have realized he couldn't get Bailey to play on his level and left it alone at that. Personally, I don't find anything funny about someone picking on an innocent. Vinay is acting like the bully, and if that's your cup of tea, good for you.

Vinay - I shouldn't make snap judgments based on one article I didn't like, so I'll likely keep reading your blog. I mean, if your wife can put up with you, I guess I can give you another chance. : )

[Ken Baumgartner]

Hey Mickey I thought you left man. Wow, for you NEVER is a long time. Almost 4 hours. Oh and I would say Mr. Bailey responding in HIS manner is standing up for fight, so good on him.

I think we need a Vinay Menon Cheer. O-K, O-K, Vin-ay, Vin-ay, Let's, Play, Ballllll. Oh sorry wrong sport!
I'll come up with something.

[Hoofheartz]

Holy crap, its like Mikey Air and Mike O'Rearend are twins. You two fine gentlemen are the perfect example of someone who is obtuse. In case you were wondering and what has been stated before, this is a blog for Leaf fans, which happens to include the writer. Do you actually think VM's tongue in cheek email conversation with Mr Bailey was anything but a joke? Please, for all concerned, move on over to the stinking habs inside/out blog. You'll fit in perfectly there.

[Michael O'Riordan]

I was a little harsh earlier, Vinay. My apologies. It really is a funny blog, and I wouldn't be troubled to post if I didn't find your work engaging. I just think we've been hoodwinked by MLSE into believing their efforts are going to translate into something tangible this year. I really like Brian Burke, but I'm not sold on some of the players, or the coaching staff for that matter. For me, it's another lost season, and any attempt to dress it up, either in your blog or on talk radio, is pure sentimental fiction. I offer no solutions, though--I don't think there are any quick fixes. It would be helpful if Kaberle waived that no-trade clause of his, though.

All that said, I'm a fan also--I grew up watching them with my parents, and like so many of us, I'll watch tonight and hope they beat the Sabres.

Mike

[Tom]

@Mikey: Allow me:

"From: Andrew Bailey
To: Vinay Menon
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 11:53 AM
Subject: Questions about your Leafs statistical analysis...

Mr. Menon, please leave my heritage out of this discussion."

There are so many Andrew Baileys out there that it is impossible to tell if the stats one is actually related. However, it's about 90% likely that he isn't. (See what I did there?) Ergo, he was joking *back.*

"From: Andrew Bailey
To: Vinay Menon
Sent: Thursday, November 25, 2010 12:24 PM
Subject: Questions about your Leafs statistical analysis...

Yes it is correct, I live in Buffalo and please return Kevin Donovan's cap."

I'm pretty sure Vinay wasn't wearing Kevin Donovan's cap. Logically then, HE. WAS. JOKING.

That's it. I am so a humanist atheist from now on. I have *zero faith* in humanity!

[Geoff Read]

Hey Victor,

I wasn't calling Vinay out at all... I was calling out some of the posters. This blog is fun.

And you should check out the spelling thing - Geoff is the original, English spelling. It's the Jeffs out there who mispell their name.

Geoff

[80s Leafs]

After watching that piece of crap game from the Leafs in Buffalo, I don't need no stats man to tell me this isn't a playoff team.
Do they know it's National "Hockey" League, and not National "Hot Potato" League, and the idea is to keep the puck on your stick rather than lose it as fast as possible, in whatever way possible, i.e., giveaway, missed pass, step on puck, etc.?
Tired of watching a) Kris "Mr. Un-tensity" Versteeg out there. Nice game-losing stupid elbowing penalty, Mr. Cup Winner; and
b) the Leafs' "hope for the best" powerplay. No organization, no set plays, just scramble around and have no idea what they're doing out there.
The other teams calmly move the puck around on the PP unchallenged by the un-moving Leaf defenders. The Leafs on the PP stumble into each other, miss passes, or lose the puck to the other teams' PK units, who are also JUST STANDING STILL defending against the futile Leafs.
Sorry, that was the rant of a long-frustrated follower. Afraid of what Sat night in Ottawa is going to bring, other than deleting those two-games in hand that everybody above has been claiming will put the Leafs back in playoff territory.

[Robert]

Win in Buffalo make the playoffs, lose in Buffalo end of season.

Lost in Buffalo, see you next year.

[Sens-ible Bill]

@Nik Culoman
"100% of the writters at this newspaper lie or twist the truth 100% of the time"
Wow, with one statement you wipe out any chance of being seen as having ANY credibility.
How about a legitimate example of even one Star writer lying. I'd be very interested to see what, if anything, you could come up with.
By the way, someone having a different opinion than you is NOT considered a case of lying, or even twisting the truth.

[Sens-ible Bill]

@pn
"Tetchiness of Leaf fans is in direct inverse proportion to the Leaf's chances of making the playoffs."
I do believe you have a point there. In fact I suspect the anger shown here has more to do with someone saying out loud some unpleasant truth that has been seeping into their own minds.
It's one thing to start to realize that in all probability your team is once again NOT going to make the playoffs. But to hear someone say it (print it) out loud, well I think that just gives certain Leaf fans a target for their frustration.
I gather this statistician didn't say for certain that the Leafs won't make the playoffs but that given their current stats, they are unlikely to make the playoffs?
Is everyone here --- or even a simple majority of people here --- convinced the Leafs WILL make the playoffs? If not, then it very much appears a case of shooting the messenger because you don't like the uncomfortable truth of his message.
Besides, I thought it was all in fun. But I guess losing can dampen one's sense of humour.
Frankly, I can't help feeling that all this overreaction hints at a certain degree of panic putting Leaf Nation on edge.
One final note. Had the statistical analysis lead the author to state that the Leafs were LIKELY to make the playoffs, would anyone be raising the same questions about the stats, like games in hand, injuries, etc.?
Would anyone be accusing the author of lying or twisting the truth IF he was presenting an optimistic analysis that was obviously NOT supported by the stats?
I think making a statistician a scapegoat for the Leafs' failure does not reflect well on the ability of Leaf fans to accept reality.
Like my own Sens, the Leafs ARE in obvious danger of not making the playoffs. I believe accepting that and urging the teams in question to do better is healthier than looking for scapegoats in the media.
Just my humble opinion.

[Sens-ible Bill]

Cheer up Leaf Nation.
If my team, the Ottawa Senators, play less than their best tonight, as has been their habit of late, (sigh), and the Leafs do play their best, of close to it, the Toronto Maples Leafs COULD win tonight.
It's a possibility to look forward to after being shut out --- except for the gift set-up Kessel received --- by the Sabres last night in Buffalo.
And if my Sens do lose, I promise not to run and hide. (g)

[pn]

Ok, I'll dumb it down a little:

Ahem ... the more defensive Leaf fans are, the crappier the team must be - so your less-than-logical assault on a guy who's just presenting numbers indicates an extremely high level of defensiveness, hence the team must be pretty crappy.

Btw - now that the Leafs have actually played 22 games and still sit at 19 points, do you feel a tad silly/sheepish about your exchange with the stats guy?