Numbers: Why the Leafs will make the playoffs

The following email arrived earlier today. Since it contains high-priority optimism, I asked the sender for permission to share. (Note: It was sent prior to Wednesday's games, in which Buffalo beat Atlanta and Florida lost to Ottawa.)

Without further ado, a statistical analysis that projects the Leafs finishing No. 7 in the Eastern Conference.

 

From: Sandeep Kembhavi
To: Vinay Menon
Sent: Wednesday, February 23, 2011 2:15 PM
Subject: Here's some Ovaltine

TIME FOR A SNOOZE…TILL APRIL

This email will put you to sleep, Vinay.

And it won't be due to sheer boredom.  Rather, its contents will unload all your doubts and fears faster than a Dion Phaneuf slapshot, allowing you to slip into a deep, peaceful, and dreamless slumber for the next several weeks. But unlike a high-and-wide Phaneuf blast, this verbal slapshot will find nothing but net, popping off your water bottle and spilling its potent blend of dread and disappointment-flavoured Gatorade onto the solid sheet of ice that has formed over the hopes and dreams you once dared entertain.

Let me get right to the point.  The Leafs are guaranteed to make the playoffs. How do I know this?  Well, based on immutable truth, for starters. Check out the below study to learn why I can so boldly utter the forbidden P-word without washing my mouth out with soap and water.  Oh, and brusquely shove Andrew Bailey out of the way as you do so.

These are the seven teams fighting for playoff spots in the East. If we assume that each continues to collect points at the same clip as they have over the past 10 games, by the end of the season the Leafs will be most comfortably settled in the rarified ranks of the Top 8.

They'll have their feet up on the coffee table with a beer in hand, Cheetos crumbs down the fronts of their battle-weathered jerseys, and 'Everyday Italian with Giada De Laurentiis' on the television in their homely 7th place abode. Catching a glimpse through their window of those 8th place vagrants who have recently taken up residence on a park bench in the ritzy playoff neighbourhood, scrounging around for spare points wherever they can be found, the Leafs will simply draw the blinds and turn up the volume.

It goes without saying that each team will perform exactly as this projection suggests, which guarantees that the Leafs will make it.  But or good measure, let's take a look at the points earned by the 8th place team at the end of the season for each of the past five years since the lockout.

These digits may appear foreign and confusing to fellow long-suffering Leaf fans, who, like me, have lost the ability to count to such dizzying numbers from lack of recent practice. But put down your noxious Gatorade bottle, and pull out your abacus. I don't know what that weird upside-down six is either, but maybe we can learn together.

Let's begin by ignoring that pesky anomalous year, 2008. Uh, let's also strike from the calendar 2006, 2007 and 2009.  Those point totals are giving me a headache. And given the steadfast commitment to mediocrity of most of the Eastern Conference, it seems unlikely that this year's motley crew of 8th place vagrants – whoever they turn out to be – will reach such lofty heights. Given how the likes of Atlanta, Buffalo, and New York are folding like origami swans, it seems they are as afraid of the upside-down six as we are.

So for all our sakes, let's just focus on that ripe and juicy 88. In their remaining 22 games, the Leafs will have to go on a run of 14-7-1 to hit that total (1.31 PPG). Overtime and shootout losses could replace outright defeats to lower the required win total by a game or two, but this gives you an idea of the pace they'll need to maintain to make it to the dance: basically, two wins for every loss.

Can they do it?  The numbers say yes. Will they do it? My gut, corroded as it is from years of overindulgence in that vile Gatorade blend, just made a gurgling sound that I interpret as a yes.

If they do, will they get slaughtered by Philly or Tampa Bay in the first round? Well, my gut has gone quiet for this one.  Let's just focus on one immensely unlikely feat at a time.

Now off to bed until April.

***

Sandeep Kembhavi (aka Stanislav the Sad Bureacrat) recently moved back to Toronto to be on hand for the Maple Leafs' dramatic turnaround.  Women shriek in horror and mothers shield their children's eyes when they see him strutting around in his Leafs' jersey (although the results are the same even without the jersey or the strutting) but he believes that one day, the sacred emblem will once again evoke pride rather than disdain.

Comments

[bitterleaffan]

It certainly is refreshing to see some positive comments from Leaf Land. The obvious flaw in this article is believing the slumping teams will continue to lose and the surging teams will continue to win over 22 games. I have to believe the Leafs will "run out of gas" very soon and start to lose all over again. Even the Cinderella Devils will eventually lose a game.

[Anthony D.]

I wonder how this would look with New Jersey in the calculations? Look at their last 10 games...

VM Replies: After reading bitterleaffan's comment, I suddenly thought the same thing. I'm going to ask our number cruncher to follow-up with a new chart that includes Jersey.

[Princess Mononoke]

http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/MapleLeafs.html

Res ipsa loquitur.

VM Replies: Shhhh. Also, no Latin before 5 a.m.

[red5]

This is too much optimism and math for me, especially given I haven't finished my coffee yet, and I've run out of bailey's.

VM Replies: You don't need Baileys for this one!

[leafland'r]

IF I read Princess' "What If" chart right the Leafs will need one more point than Sandeep's chosen magic number of 88. Percentage wise, it's not 'til they reach 89 points that the Buds will cross the line with a greater chance than not ( 44/35).
Pleeeeease do not have a repeat play of 2007.

[TPiddy]

I believe the first step for this club is to get back to .500, which they can do tonight. While the Leafs have been solid in their past 10 games, they've also had a bit of a lighter schedule, as they took games against Florida, Atlanta, Carolina and two from the Islanders to help built their 7-2-2 record.

Of their remaining 22 games, 14 are played against teams currently in a playoff spot. Of the 14, 6 are against clubs that are currently slumping (Pens, Habs, Hurricanes). Having said that, things could change by the time these games are played, but the Leafs MUST beat every team at or below them remaining on the schedule (8 games) as well as take a few from slumping and non-slumping playoff teams alike.

[ostrich_lover]

On an unrelated note, the Leafs have been on fire ever since I purchased a white Tucker jersey.

[TPiddy]

As for the Devils, using the same formula of points per game in their last 10, the Devils have captured all but one point for an impressive PPG of 1.9. Multiply this by their remaining games and they get another 41 points, giving them 97 and sitting them comfortably in a playoff spot with home ice advantage, dropping the Leafs to 8th.

[TPiddy]

And for my final statistical analysis of the day, the Leafs are a full 10 points better than they were at this time last season. Last season's Leafs garnered 25 points in their last 22 games, but this year we will need approximately 30 more.

VM Replies: I should be paying you for all of this.

[Peter]

TPiddy,

they would sit at 8th? i'd take that! :-)

[We BeLeaf]

Not bad Vinay, a little early in the day to start with creative accounting and number crunching for me though.

Hopefully the Leafs get the win tonight and here's how I think it can get done.....
- stay disciplined and take no dumb penalties,
- 3rd and 4th lines must force the Habs off their game
- be PHYSICAL, it's been proven that to beat the Habs, all you need to do is muscle them around as they're too small
- control the cycle, make smart outlet passes, and use your speed through the neutral zone

What could be the lynch pin in all of this is the penalties. If the Leafs let in too many PP goals, then most of this is out the window. The exception to the rule would be the recent Montreal - Boston game where there were a lot of goals, and a lot of penalties, which ultimately led to Boston winning.

GO LEAFS GO!

Cheers!

[enJoy hockey]

Love the writing; love the reasoning more. Will love having a good night's sleep tonight. Will really love April!

[gettingcozywithsarkozy]

I love semantics!! I do this all day at work.

...On a separate note, Princess, you're posting on a leafs blog at 4:47am?!?!?! Are you sure you're not a closet Leafs fan!?!? (Either that, or you're posting from the other side of the world).

[A True Leafs Fan]

If the leafs make the "P". Party at my house! everyone is invited. Even Non Leaf fans like Geoff and Bill.

[TimB]

In this "we are all winners,losers get a trophy too" world we live in,please allow to me to say I'm sick of this setup.Lose and win are opposites.We give both teams a point and then enter what was suppose to be exciting 4 on 4 overtime (not) and after 5 minutes of left wing lock we go to a skills competition to decide who should be the winnier team.Can I be the only one here who found nothing wrong with the old way?

[Geoff Read]

Acknowledging the slightly facetious tone of the email (which I enjoyed), let me point out two problems. #1 The line "[i]f we assume that each continues to collect points at the same clip as they have over the past 10 games,..." makes me think "unlikely to happen." The author all but - tongue in cheek - acknowledges this. #2 The hard-charging New Jersey Devils are left off this chart. I predict the Devils pass the Leafs before the end of the season.

VM Replies: Allow me to make a prediction of my own. This chart proves shockingly accurate and one Geoff Read is forced to write a guest post declaring his love for the Toronto Maple Leafs, a grim prospect that becomes decidedly clear on the night of Thursday, February 24 when his beloved Habs are slaughtered like cattle in their own barn.

[We BeLeaf]

No TimB, there was nothing wrong with the old way. It's totally changed the game from a team sport to an individual contest all to make it more attractive to the casual viewer.

[TPiddy]

Peter: If you factor in the Devils using the same formula the Leafs would be 8th and not 7th. The Devils would be around 4th. While it's not impossible, the Leafs have been playing at a 1.4 PPG clip over the last 10, and need to maintain a 1.35 PPG to hit the magic 90 point plateau. Reimer, in his 15 decisions, has played at a 1.33 PPG pace. It's doable... but unlikely.

[loyal he remains]

Thanks, TimB. I really detest the present system — especially the shootout. A shootout isn't hockey; it's a practice drill.

[Michael C. Nemirsky]

Wow, what a refreshing and positive way to start the day on a -24 morning in Edmonton. I like this kind of number crunching, it certainly has its upside and proper embellishment in favor of those glorious leaf bastards. The bottom line is we have to win games at a .667 clip. This IMO, can and will be achieved if we keep playing as a unified team, defence first. Reimer is definitely up to the task and the defenceman are playing their most inspired hockey at the moment. Now the forwards, we have to start burying our chances and keep the opposition's chances to a minimum. Tonight, against the scabs, they could very well be ripe for the picking, as teams who come off an extended road trip, as Montreal just has, usually lay an egg. If we can jump on them early and take those lunatic fans out, I like our chances. 4-1 leafs.

[TPiddy]

Vinay, give me your email so I can send you my bill... or I'll settle for a guest column.

VM Replies: Send me your guest post idea: vmenon@thestar.ca

[wcdixon]

The numbers game....thank 'goodness' others do this so I don't have to.Thank you! I'd say 90-92 points is the target number...but getting back to .500 important first step.

VM Replies: A belated happy birthday to you. (Ah, the benefits of Facebook friendship.)

[Geoff Read]

Ah, Vinay... prepare yourself for a rude awakening from your dreamworld.

Seriously though, it should be a good game. Both teams should be motivated, both teams are coming into the game with some momentum....

The Leafs might just score a goal this time.

[Robert]

The new rallying cry, " slaughtered like cattle in their own barn" and when they come into the ACC "death to the impostors " we'll never lose another game!
Vinnie, you've done it again.

[pinot grigio]

Proofiness, nothing but proofiness.

[A True Leafs Fan]

Ah, Geoff Read

Prepare your self for a rude awakening. Leafs are going to beat the habs.

Seriously though it will be a good game. leafs are going to win 10-0

Kessel might just score a hat trick

[Leaf Fan in Lotusland]

Love the optimism and the bad, bad math. Glad to see I'm not the only one who failed Stats.

[Alecia]

TimB, I agree. I am not a fan of the shootout. I think it’s a poor way to decide who gets the extra point. In fact, I don’t even like the idea of giving out 3 points in one game. Someone once said that determining a winner by shootout in hockey is like determining a winner in football by having to throw the ball through a tire. It’s essential, as you’ve said, a skills competition. I agree that it is not a good measure of who deserves the win, but it is what it is and this system is not going anywhere. I do miss the old full overtime period though.

However, here is an explanation for the new system for you. I remember one of the commentators during a game say that the reason the NHL settled on a short 5 min OT period followed by a shootout was because many visitor teams (and sometimes the home team) fly out immediately after the game and having long extended overtime games might pose complications with game day travel, especially if the team plays the following day. Make sense but I wish there was another way.

[Johnny the Juice]

LOL no chance.

VM Replies: At least you're laughing. That's all I can really ask.

[Geoff Read]

Geeze, you guys are killjoys. I like the shootout. It's exciting. It showcases the players' skills. And ties suck.

There is, on the other hand, part of me that agrees the losing team shouldn't get a point. But with the current system producing exciting playoff races and allowing teams like (cough, cough) the Leafs to hang around the playoff picture when under the previous system they would be well out of reach by now, I can't imagine the league changing the formula.

[Stanislav the Sad Bureacrat]

There appears to be some clamouring for the inclusion of New Jersey in this analysis. The buzz in some corners is that if the Devils collect points at the same clip as they have over the past 10 games, they will vault over the Leafs - and several other teams - and entrench themselves in a playoff spot with 97.8 points.

But come on. I've never heard of such a ridiculous method for making playoff projections.

[Peter]

TimB, i'm sure that most true hockey fans don't like the current system. i for one hate the shoot out. while ht epenalty shots are exiting to whatch i hate the fact that it's decides the outcome of the game. i hate that if you are crap as a team but somehow manage to hang in there and make it to the penalty shots, you can win the game.

[Johnny the Juice]

Yes VM I will continue to laugh each day I read another ludicrous article about this topic. The irony is that BB has already waved the white flag with the trading of Kaberle.

[KD]

I don't like the shootout either, or even overtime, for that matter. What bugs me most is that some games are worth more than others. For example, before last night, Buffalo and Atlanta were both one point up on our Buds. If that game had gone to OT, then both would be two points up today, and a victory over the hated Habs would give us no more than a tie for 10th. Fortunately, it was settled before OT, so that's not an issue.

I think we need to give a regulation win more value than an OT or SO win. The traditionalists might not like it, but here's my idea. Every game is worth 3 points. If you win in regulation, you get all 3. If you win in OT, you get 2. If you win in a shootout, you get 1. If you lose, you lose, and you get ZERO points.

[Alecia]

Carey Price isn't in net tonight, Auld is.

[gettingcozywithsarkozy]

So, since we're talking about the shootout, I thought I'd give my (worthless) two cents. From what I remember (and this may not be accurate), the shootout was implemented because teams were being TOO cautious in overtime wanted desperately to cling to that one point a tie would guarantee than have one bad bounce and lose that point after already playing a whole 60 minutes (one games worth). Teams would lay back and clear the puck out of their zone content with the one point. This made the OT period almost useless (and not to mention boring). In their endless wisdom, the execs decided to spruce things up and reduce the number of players on ice to 4 during OT and guarantee teams atleast one point if regulation ended in a tie. So, now teams are more motivated to go out there and actually play hockey since they have one point in their pockets. Furthermore, (and I can see good old gary thinking this now) the NHL said to themselves "hey, lets make things exciting for the fans (especially south of the border), and make the tie-breaker a shoot-out!" The extra point is just a bonus.

Having said all this, I am not a big fan of the shootout, but honestly, I can't see a better solution for the debaucle that was OT pre-2000's.

[Sensi-Bill]

@Alecia
.
"I do miss the old full overtime period though."
.
I confess I am confused by this statement. I don't recall there ever being a full overtime period during the regular season.
.
And, as far as I know, full overtime periods in the playoffs have not been eliminated.
.
As for tying the game during regulation time, I'd rather go back to awarding each team a single point for a tie, than switch to only the winning team in overtime or the shootout getting any points.
.
I understand the time constraints AND the desire to declare a winner in every regular season game. It can play havoc with the standings, but, as I believe was the intent, it provides (hopefully) some excitement, and some closure for the fans.
.
There was a reason tying a game was declared as exciting as kissing one's sister.
.
As for the shootout being merely a skills competition, I can't understand how a penalty shot, which only MAY determine the eventual winner, can be declared by so many to be one of the most exciting aspects of the game, while post-overtime penalty shots ---aka the shootout ---are not.
.
Just my thoughts on the issue. I too am not a big fan of the shootout, but I can see why it was instigated. I can live with it.

[Alecia]

*gasp* Bill is back! Bill is back!! Rejoice!

Isn’t the 5 min overtime period a new thing in the NHL? Haven’t they always done and still do the full 20min overtime period in the playoffs? I guess I shouldn’t have written “old.” I wish that’s how it was for regular season games now. Even a half period would be better, but I find that 5 mins is so disappointing and over before you know it.

[Chad]

some people have seem to merge into a different topic all together. how did this turn into a blog about the old OT and the new OT/shootout??

i'll stay on topic for my comment.....one reason the Leafs won't make the playoffs: the power play.
it was crap before, and it's going to be even worse now that Kabby is gone. if i were other teams i'd take penalties all night, and play the entire game shorthanded. their chances of scoring will improve. all they have to do is pressure the Leafs to move the puck. without Kabby back their playing QB for 2 mins., it is a lot harder then it seems. turnovers a plenty.

side note: i'm not trashing the Kaberle trade. fact is i loved the deal that Burke made. i'm simply pointing out that there is now a huge glaring hole in our PP, and it's going to be the downfall of this years playoff push.

[Farrukh I]

Oh man Sandeep, your starting to get me hyped up for something thats probably not going to happen. I must admit theres a good chance, but I have to remain guarded. If the leafs don't make the playoffs, all the people on this blog are going to come after you. Maybe Vinay can be the voice of reason to calm people down if that does happen otherwise you better hope Vman has a hideout for you. Key to the playoffs are Reimers stellar play and Kessel's continued improvement. That and not your lemon squares induced stats is going to make a difference

VM Replies: I'll hide him in the Star building. Then if the torch-bearing mob burns it to the ground, at least I don't have to work this summer.

[Boo Who?]

This place is becoming overrun with Habs and Sens fans (It's just an observation!! Don't have a cow.)
You know what this means right? Somewhere, 'HFTBDNALF' is furiously composing his rebuttal to this post and marking a big red 'X' on his calendar, fairly shivering with anticipation. And that other guy whose name I can't remember, so we'll call him 'Obnoxious Habs fan #2', is beating his head against a padded wall and screaming that MLSE is now using their evil alien implants to ensnare the minds of fans of other teams too. Oh what a hopeless one man crusade that poor fella is waging.

I cannot support this post from a statistical standpoint, but far be it from me to criticize anyone who watches 'Everyday Italian'. Because I love Giada's crazy smile, giant head, and 'why-should-I-cover-these-puppies-up?-Middle-America-be-damned!' approach to kitchen attire. Her food is yummers too.

VM Replies: You always brighten my mood, Ms. Boo.

[TheGo2Girl]

I'm new to the commenting on this blog but I am an avid reader because you always know what to say. This is quite an optimistic rant and I had to say something.

I feel that the biggest challenge for the leafs for the last few years has been to make the forbidden place, P. That, in itself, is an accomplishment, even if they get blasted in the first round but who knows, Cinderella Stories do exist.

VM Replies: Welcome to the commenting jungle, TheGo2Girl. Glad to have you aboard.

[Adam]

One thing is for sure: the Leafs had better improve their game. If they play the way they did against the Sens and Islanders, it's almost a given that the Habs and Pens will clean their clocks. I fear that we'll be discussing a 2-game losing streak on Sunday.

[Ken Baumgartner]

What have you done? This is no time for this talk. Tonight is "The Most Important Game of the Season" and there are still 3 teams to get past. It is a good article and all but projections don't mean Sh*t. I would like nothing more than your projection to come true but we cannot, must not, get ahead of ourselves. Step 1 is win tonight and put Atlanta in the rear view mirror and get some more separation from Florida. Then, concentrate on catching Buffalo. One game at a time is the truest of all clichés and in this case it is the most relevant. 22 games is a long way away to be declaring an 11th place team, 6 points out and 3 teams to pass, a playoff team. OH MAN?

[Peter]

Off topic here: the Penguins got Kovalev for a 7th round pick.

[We BeLeaf]

Cinderella stories do exist TheGo2girl, as any Habs fan can attest to what happened last year when they snuck into the playoffs.

[Blah Blah]

You know you jinxed it right? :-P

[TPiddy]

Well, considering the Power Play was a phenomenal 24th in the league WITH Kaberle, we can expect it to drop somewhat without him, but it's also going to take a few games to get a new system together. Then again, I haven't had faith in our power play system for about 5 years now.

[Stanislav the Sad Bureaucrat]

I'm thrilled to hear that either way, people are going to flood the streets of Toronto come April. I just hope that it's in celebration of the Leafs' triumphant return to the P land, and not in the form an angry mob brandishing torches and pitchforks, descending on the Star building while I hide under Mr. Menon's desk. But that would be pretty awesome too. As Seymour Skinner once said, there's no justice like angry mob justice.

[waffles2010]

Boy is this blog ever doing its best to give me an incurable case of optimism.

[hoofheartz]

Where can I find this "Everyday Italian" show. I want to see puppies too.

[Hockey Fan, therefore by Definition Not a Leaf Fan]

Boo Who posted that I was furiously typing up a rebuttal. Actually, I was laughing too hard for quite some time to type anything.

I won't even bother with the idiocy of the original poster's logic, because I am certain it was tongue firmly planted in cheek.

Yes, the Laff's will likely beat my Habs tonight, who are down 3 of their top 4 defencemen, and are returning from their tour of the Valley of Death (also known as Edmonton/Calgary/Vancouver) while the Laffs have not left their own time zone in like 3 weeks.

But then let's have a little look at the upcoming games for the Laff's. I have posted this before, and will post again for all the memory deficient.
Next 10 games: Montreal-Pitt-Atlanta-Pitt-Philly-Chic-Islanders-Philly-Buffalo-Tampa.

Is there any truly sane Laff fan out there that things your team can go 6-2-2 in those 10 games?

[Rooney]

TimB, I usually complain about the shootout but I have to admit that I am the first monkey jumping, screaming, swearing and cheering when it happens. So my opinion probably is not worth much on that front. It's time for a goalie show us his stuff. It's time for the NHL offensive elite to strut their skills and sell this game, or, if you are Ron Wilson, it's time to pick three names out of a hat.

As for these stats, Stanislav, are you a MLSE genetic mutation created by the mixing of Lord Stanley with Miroslav Frycer? These numbers brought a tear to my eye, as I recall Seseame Street and the knowledge that numbers are our friends. It is a great time to be a Leafs fan in the post-lockout era. February is almost over and the dream has not been torn from our soul months earlier. The Buds, if you listen them today, are not making any execuses and are ignoring what MLSE management and other teams are doing. They are saying it is entirely up to them, that they want it and are ready to play for it. The future looks bright and there is still plenty of intrigue to enjoy this season.

I note that ALF B is primarily visited by Sens and Habs fans. They want us to share in their team's gloomy, miserable outlook but sadly we are not in same place as they are. We are ready to back the team that wants to leave it on the ice tonight. I am ready to use the booyaka hex [(c) 2011 ALF B - there VM I am giving my intellectual property over to you] on these Habs. Hoofheartz, we are 2 - 0 when I have used lyrics from your song choice (Procol Harum and The Cars) with the hex. So tell us, Hoofheartz, what song has got you in the mood for a Montreal loss today?

[ostrich_lover]

@ Princess M.

I laughed when I read your response to my name for rhymer - Big Daddy Rhyme Time- , but I thought since you are an english major you might have appreciated that the true source of the nickname was not Big Daddy Kane or hip hop culture, but rather Big Daddy from Cat on a Hot Tin Roof.

[leafland'r]

SO
I like the Shootout 'cause:
* a tie always seemed to leave me with an end-of-game unsatified feeling. It was almost like a waste of time and effort for teams travelling the countryside,
* the 5 minute, 4 on 4 OT beforehand does generate some tense moments of finality,
* the shootout can be a little flat after hard gametime skating, but does add some crowd standing attention,
* for some reason the players show a playoff game level of joy at the victory,
* the system does leave a team with at least a point for a tie at the end of 60 with a single shot declaring a winner ( works fine except where the Leafs got knocked out of the playoffs by a single SO shot within another game after beating the Canadiens in the last match of the season)
* and, it's probably better than the idea of offering 3 points for a victory, 2 for a tie, 1 for a loss in regulation.

[hoofheartz]

Checking now Rooney.

[hoofheartz]

How about this, because I believe the Leafs are going to "steal" a playoff spot.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jon3q6me5Sg

[hoofheartz]

OK, so that has nothing to do with stealing, but it's still a pretty good song.

[Rooney]

Logical choice! Bloody well right, let's see. Booyaka, you Habs, "roll up and see" your evening has just "gone from bad to worse". [VM, your tech guys need to add that awesome piano riff here.]

VM Replies: That may be asking too much. But nice DJ'ing by hoofheartz. Behind only "Goodbye Stranger," "Crime of The Century" is my favourite Supertramp song.

[Boo Who?]

@ VM - the feeling is mutual. :)

We smoked one more out of his hole! :D

@ Hoofheartz - The Food Network. Not sure what time, as I rarely get to watch daytime TV these days. She's worth a PVR slot, just to watch her go orgasmic when she takes a bite of whatever miniscule smidgen of food she's scooped onto her teeny little plate.

[Boo Who?]

Okay the h3ll with looking her up on the guide, let me save you all the trouble.
Here's a taste of Giada:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FeWn2Hs__tM

I promise you, her cooking is just as fabulous as her rack. Everyone feeling excited about tonight's game? I thought so. GLG!!

[Alecia]

Vinay, Timmy Brent just tweeted that “every game seems to be the most important game of the year.”

He is either a secret reader of your blog (marry me?) or maybe they finally GET IT.

VM Replies: I actually found out the other day there are a few "lurkers" here. It made me nervous.

[TimB]

@Chad.I am on topic.The present point system has a lot to do with the Leafs chances of making the playoffs.Some games are 2 points while others are 3.

@Alecia.Right on.I always compared the shootout to basket ball games decided by free throws or maybe baseball decided by a home run competition?

Thanks for all your answers.I don't feel so alone.I agree with We BeLeaf that the system is for the casual viewer.The kind of viewer who posts here speaking of switching over from mid game to curling or American Idol.

Get the Habs!

[emma]

Oh Giada is great but the original and still best is Nigella Lawson - great food, great personality, loves food and talking about food - with a English accent no less, AND a great rack.

VM Replies: emma and Ms. Boo have now used the word "rack" in comments today. I don't know what this means.

[Princess Mononoke]

Well folks, I've had a spectacularly bad day, and being up at 4 am was actually one of the highlights. Yes, I toil in the thankless salt mines of your children's intellectual development and educational progress, and I get up very early to review my lesson plans--with ALFB as a soothing companion of the dawn. Today's post is hilarious!

Your enthusiasm--all of you--is contagious!

That is why I feel giddily certain that my Habs, though wounded, depleted of energy, and full of gooey Purdy's Victoria Creams, will dance across the ice and transfix your young farmhand-goalie into submission. Phaneuf, budgie-like, only throws his body at his reflection in the glass. Kessel has the mental resilience of a baby bunny. You guys are cooked, and we'll be happy to insert the meat thermometer in a tender place and take a reading for you.
Speaking of which, here's a moment I still recall with warmth when I try to recall what Kovalev ever amounted to for us:
http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/71790/AlexTucker.jpg
Apprently he's gone to Pittsburgh.

VM Replies: I like that you're up early. It's nice having company at 4 a.m. I also like that you're such a dedicated teacher. Reminds me of my parents, who also taught.
What I don't like, though, is the horrible feelings that are about to wash across your trembling body in less than two hours. I apologize in advance for what the Leafs are about to do to your heart and soul.

[TimB]

hoofheartz, I was not so keen on your Cars choice,but if Rooney says it worked with the curse I'm good with it.Supertramp? I thought "Crisis" was a better album.Not technically,maybe,but musically.

VM Replies: That's interesting. I always thought Crisis felt incomplete, like a work in progress that was rushed into the studio. But now you've got me thinking.
For me, it all came together for them on Breakfast in America. Despite some of the over-produced flourishes, that album still holds up today musically.
I will say this about Supertramp: Unlike most of their counterparts of that era, they left a lot to be desired as a live act. Have you heard the Paris album? Horrible.

[emma]

Ok focus, focus

I think tonight's game will be telling. Is it two ugly points, or a strong win to signal that the team is together and everyone is pushing himself and his teammates?

I'm with Alecia - 5 minutes of overtime is over much to quickly.

A previous debate - I prefer Optimus Reim - even though I don't know the origins (though I actually recall playing with the original toy - the show must have been on cable...) OR strikes me as more original and interesting sounding than other possibilities. In my mind it also alludes to optimistic....which he has made us all :)

[Alecia]

Vinay! There are lurkers here? Why didn't you tell us? I would have put on something nice!

VM Replies: I'm sorry! Now you know. Get dolled up before your next comment.

[Boo Who?]

I love hearing that the Leafs are (possibly) fans of their fans! Let me go on record as stating that I don't actually hate any of our players. Even the ones I make fun of - Boo is just playin'. :) I love you rotten bastards to the core and I'm in this thing until the bitter end.

@ emma - Nigella is one foxy dame! I'd love to be her when I grow up. Back when I was a tamed filly, I used to look up recipes by Nigella and Giada on the American website. The comments left there by bitter housewives spewing invective at these two fine females were hilarious.

@ VM - I'm just racking my rack to boost rack around rack. I mean--doing my part to boost morale around here.

[Sue]

Perhaps the lurkers are passing back important info to the minions and that is what is making them work harder these days! VM, perhaps you should send them your lemon square recipe! I think they will pull it off tonight. Reimer will be solid, Lupey will score and Dion will perhaps not be so invisible this evening. Leafs please no penalties tonight. I am running out of alcohol!!

[nugentmania]

If these stats are only running from a 10 game sample, and the last 10 games at that, how come the grid cuts off at 12th place Florida? The Devils have 19 points in their last 10 games, and if give the same faulty metrics as this blog post, then the Devils end up with 96 points.

[TimB]

Yes,Vinay, the Crisis album was a contractual thing.But "Sister Moonshine" and others were pretty solid songs. Paris? yup horrible.For live albums I remember near everyone had Grand Funk "Live".

[hoofheartz]

OK, one final song, again by Supertramp. It aptly describes where all of Leafs Nation may end up.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyxAZEJLlrQ

[TimB]

"I'm just racking my rack to boost rack around rack. I mean--doing my part to boost morale around here." At least the line of the day.

VM Replies: Yeah, front-runner for Comment of The Day.

[hoofheartz]

Thanks Boo, for boosting my morale, among other things.

[TimB]

@Sue.I'm afraid any sharing of lemon square recipes have to go through me first.

VM Replies: This is true.

[moe green]

I like Giada DeLaurentits. They always showing here washing her hands between courses. I wounder when they're gonna film here having a bath one day. Tastefully of course and integral to the episode. Maybe she'll make wine in the tub. Ligella Lawson is great and a tad more sophisticated than Giada. Great Mediterranean cuisine. A seasoned vet.

I agree about the overtime. What is the point of five extra minutes after sixty? It seems a bit arbitrary. As for the shootout - count me out. Yes it is exciting but a perfect example of why I hate it was the Sens game. I saw it coming for 25 minutes. That's the only way the Sens win that game. Personally I'd prefer good old fashioned ties. Failing that a shootout without OT. Save OT for the post season. They gotta drop the "Some three point games" thing. It's unfair.

Oh yeah, there's a game tonight. Thank god it's only the "Most Important Game of the Season." Can we do this?

[TimB]

Good one,Hoof.Was that Ann Coulter?

[Mike]

Auld in net.... I hate when we have to play back up goalies, because then the next day i have to read how Auld "Stood on his head" had 43 saves and was the first star of the night.... Please for the love of all that is holy don't shoot the puck into his chest all night. I would take a slug fest 8-7 then a 3 - 1 "spectacular goaltending from Auld" night. He is not spectacular, he is a back up, make him look like one.

Oh and Dreger says Mackie/King Arther/cream filling in the former soviet Oreo is worth MORE than Versteeg right now... A 1st and 2nd for a 2.5 to 3m player? makes you think doesn't it

[hoofheartz]

Tim, I remember seeing her somewhere tonight, but maybe it was just a pregame nightmare.

[TimB]

Moe.Thanks for the shoot out feedback,but your pathetic attempt to get in good with the ladies on the blog is embarrassing.Have you no shame,man?

[emma]

Oh oh, it's probably better that I don't watch. I've yet to see a full game this season when the Leafs played well. And I also grew up in Thunder Bay (though I don't personally know Auld).

I was however popping on some pre game music. No disrespect to any of the game djs here by any means - consistently excellent choices all! Thanks for the old favourites and new bands to check out.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JH2291KGr3Y
(note, not a real video but a rousing song when played loudly)

And then I thought of a song that I heard the other day and checked it out - the video turned out to be a bit of a treat.... they just need some lemon squares and a game on and it might be the boys here (in future as the case may be...) :))

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GMBr_1XwSo

[moe green]

@TimB: I am a die hard Leafs fan. Does that answer your question?

[Alecia]

4-2 Leafs!

[Princess Mononoke]

I predict a tight game with a playoff atmosphere. Probably a 2-1 score.

Look, guys, you won't actually get to the P-thing in April. The hockey Gods don't want to waste a win on a team that's already dismantling itself for next year.
We, however, have been in a playoff spot all year. We get to say the playoff word all the time. (All the time! ) We need these points more than you do.

So, I'm going to stop now, and I promise not to trash talk during the game. I just hope you understand it makes more sense for us to win this one.
Don't be bitter.

(Playoff! Playoff! Playoff! Playoff! Playoff.....)

VM Replies: This side of you is very disturbing.

[Simmer]

footspeed and winning one on one battles will settle this one tonight - here's to hoping that the buds are as stoked as I am, not sure could admit to losing a battle tonight - hope they have the same mindset - predict a big effort from MacArhur and others

[Robert]

Tis the evening to be jolly, please appreciate the fact that the Habs are hurt, and we are going to hurt them even more! ONWARD !

[moe green]

Oh boo-hoo, the Habs need the points. We should let up and let them have two points. What do you say blue-bastard fans. We've only been out of the playoffs for the best part of a decade. Let's lose one for the Princess!

[Boo Who?]

@ moe - the h3ll with that idea. Don't lose one for the Princess, win one for your Queen(s)!!!

[enJoy hockey]

Moe, surely you jest!

[Ken Baumgartner]

Boo, back when you were a tame philly? So now you are a wild mare, is that what you are telling me? That image and a Leafs win, I'm thinking that is pretty close to utopia.

GAME TIME!!

Come on boys pull this out.

[emma]

LOL

Moe, TimB, Princess, Vinay, Boo - y'all crack me up

[Simmer]

only one penalty - poppycock

VM Replies: That was pretty bizarre.

[Ken Baumgartner]

Well there madam Princess if you are indeed royalty then you have BLUE BLOOD, so perhaps you should be cheering for the BLUE TEAM. Secretly you must be.

[Ken Baumgartner]

Rip off!!

[Boo Who?]

@ Ken - if by 'wild' you mean I am currently not hitched to any post, then yes. Boo is exceedingly well behaved otherwise. A perfect lady.

Oh &^@#ing @#@$^% #!@^!!!! I am not able to watch right now, but when I come back later to check in we had better have tied this thing!

[Gerhard]

LOL projecting off of a 10 game sample is absurd! Probability & statistics are subjects foreign to most Leafs fans but please try to wrap your minds around a basic concept like sample size.

[Alecia]

Wow Kessel with a rocket.

[Ken Baumgartner]

It is time for LUPUL to get off the Schneid an put one in the net.

[Simmer]

footspeed and one on one battlles look good so far - like McD's- I'm Lovin it!