Numbers: Why the Leafs will make the playoffs

The following email arrived earlier today. Since it contains high-priority optimism, I asked the sender for permission to share. (Note: It was sent prior to Wednesday's games, in which Buffalo beat Atlanta and Florida lost to Ottawa.)

Without further ado, a statistical analysis that projects the Leafs finishing No. 7 in the Eastern Conference.

 

From: Sandeep Kembhavi
To: Vinay Menon
Sent: Wednesday, February 23, 2011 2:15 PM
Subject: Here's some Ovaltine

TIME FOR A SNOOZE…TILL APRIL

This email will put you to sleep, Vinay.

And it won't be due to sheer boredom.  Rather, its contents will unload all your doubts and fears faster than a Dion Phaneuf slapshot, allowing you to slip into a deep, peaceful, and dreamless slumber for the next several weeks. But unlike a high-and-wide Phaneuf blast, this verbal slapshot will find nothing but net, popping off your water bottle and spilling its potent blend of dread and disappointment-flavoured Gatorade onto the solid sheet of ice that has formed over the hopes and dreams you once dared entertain.

Let me get right to the point.  The Leafs are guaranteed to make the playoffs. How do I know this?  Well, based on immutable truth, for starters. Check out the below study to learn why I can so boldly utter the forbidden P-word without washing my mouth out with soap and water.  Oh, and brusquely shove Andrew Bailey out of the way as you do so.

These are the seven teams fighting for playoff spots in the East. If we assume that each continues to collect points at the same clip as they have over the past 10 games, by the end of the season the Leafs will be most comfortably settled in the rarified ranks of the Top 8.

They'll have their feet up on the coffee table with a beer in hand, Cheetos crumbs down the fronts of their battle-weathered jerseys, and 'Everyday Italian with Giada De Laurentiis' on the television in their homely 7th place abode. Catching a glimpse through their window of those 8th place vagrants who have recently taken up residence on a park bench in the ritzy playoff neighbourhood, scrounging around for spare points wherever they can be found, the Leafs will simply draw the blinds and turn up the volume.

It goes without saying that each team will perform exactly as this projection suggests, which guarantees that the Leafs will make it.  But or good measure, let's take a look at the points earned by the 8th place team at the end of the season for each of the past five years since the lockout.

These digits may appear foreign and confusing to fellow long-suffering Leaf fans, who, like me, have lost the ability to count to such dizzying numbers from lack of recent practice. But put down your noxious Gatorade bottle, and pull out your abacus. I don't know what that weird upside-down six is either, but maybe we can learn together.

Let's begin by ignoring that pesky anomalous year, 2008. Uh, let's also strike from the calendar 2006, 2007 and 2009.  Those point totals are giving me a headache. And given the steadfast commitment to mediocrity of most of the Eastern Conference, it seems unlikely that this year's motley crew of 8th place vagrants – whoever they turn out to be – will reach such lofty heights. Given how the likes of Atlanta, Buffalo, and New York are folding like origami swans, it seems they are as afraid of the upside-down six as we are.

So for all our sakes, let's just focus on that ripe and juicy 88. In their remaining 22 games, the Leafs will have to go on a run of 14-7-1 to hit that total (1.31 PPG). Overtime and shootout losses could replace outright defeats to lower the required win total by a game or two, but this gives you an idea of the pace they'll need to maintain to make it to the dance: basically, two wins for every loss.

Can they do it?  The numbers say yes. Will they do it? My gut, corroded as it is from years of overindulgence in that vile Gatorade blend, just made a gurgling sound that I interpret as a yes.

If they do, will they get slaughtered by Philly or Tampa Bay in the first round? Well, my gut has gone quiet for this one.  Let's just focus on one immensely unlikely feat at a time.

Now off to bed until April.

***

Sandeep Kembhavi (aka Stanislav the Sad Bureacrat) recently moved back to Toronto to be on hand for the Maple Leafs' dramatic turnaround.  Women shriek in horror and mothers shield their children's eyes when they see him strutting around in his Leafs' jersey (although the results are the same even without the jersey or the strutting) but he believes that one day, the sacred emblem will once again evoke pride rather than disdain.

Comments

[Vinay Menon]

Lebda!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wait. Lebda????????????????

[gettingcozywithsarkozy]

Gosh, I was banking on the "on-ice cermony" commemorating the Sopel trade to catch the whole game from the beginning. As it is, I missed the first goal for each team. But, I don't mind cause Kessel and Lebda (huh, seriously?!?!) just scored!!! Uh oh, here comes "red-ligh..." ooops, I guess I can't call him that, here comes sCarey Price!!

[Ken Baumgartner]

YES,YES,YES,YES,YES,YES,YES,YES, YES. Kessel and Lebda. LEBDA, who knew?

[Alecia]

WHAT ON EARTH IS GOING ON!?!?

DO MY EYES DECEIVE ME! LEBDA? LEAFS 3-1?

*rubs eyes* WHAT?!?!?!

[moe green]

Komisarek isn't being awful so far.

VM Replies: He's totally inside their heads. He looks great tonight.

[Ken Baumgartner]

YOU WHOOO, Priiincess are you there?

[waffles2010]

Sorry I'm late, had to catch up on the food porn on various channels and websites.
Another interesting turn of events in Leaf nation. Honestly, never would have thought that Lebda would prove to be helpful in any way, shape or form, but he may just turn out to be the veteran defence man Burke was looking for.

[gettingcozywithsarkozy]

Ken, you read my mind, I was just about to post the same thing!

[Robert]

Good first period. Our forwards can out skate theirs. I am concerned about Phaneuf and Komisarek. They are too slow for some of the Montreal forwards. Reimer gooooooood in net! Let us keep going!

[Alecia]

Ok Waffles, let's not get TOO crazy... it's like an eclipse. Only happens every once in a very long time.

[TimB]

Center Ice Sports Package $30. Ah.....I do not see the Leafs game here.Had to go on line and pay to get the french package to watch the game on RDS. $4.
Got to see Lebda get a goal. Priceless!

[Simmer]

Solid 1st period effort rewarded with 3 beauties. King James protecting the castle and I have a smile from ear to ear here. (the 1st against was thru traffic and deflected i think so King James gets the mulligan in my eyes - even a blind squirrel (the scabs in this case) find the odd nut- we are taking it to them so far, don't take the foot off the gas now!

[enJoy hockey]

Boo, that was not very ladylike, but yeah, $^@$&$#(& on that first goal. Maybe you'd better not come back, the way things are going now.

[Sue]

@TimB I apologize for not realizing that you were the holder of the lemon square receipe. Please forgive me. Did not mean to put credit elsewhere. Just got back into the game and am pleasantly surprised at the events that have taken place thus far. Kessel! Twice! If he scores a hat trick, the vodka will definately be out!

[waffles2010]

Ok, Alecia I won't go all crazy on you. I will say this, he was a solid player in Detroit. He can be here as well.

[Sue]

@BooWho? Sorry you are unable to watch. I have been quite impressed by the play so far in the first period. First time in a while that they look alive out there.

@Simmer Not too many Leaf penalties tonight so far. Haven't brought out the shot glass yet!

[Ken Baumgartner]

@Alecia, maybe we should not be too quick to write Lebda off. I don't want to get carried away either but he was signed to be the PP quarterback and that did not happen. He did not get the minutes he was supposed to. I get he should be a pro but he is human as well. We can forget that sometimes and maybe it affected him more then we know. Maybe he will step his game up now. One can hope anyway.

[Sue]

Everyone was relieved after Kessel finally scored after a 14 game drought! Can you imagine how Lebda feels now after not scoring for 86 GAMES!

Just making up for lost time tonight!

[hoofheartz]

PLEASE I'M BEGGING FOR A FEED I don't know how much more of this game I can watch on RDS. TimB, I was on the phone with Rogers for 15 minutes bitching at them because none of my 1000+ channels (except RDS) was showing the Leaf game.

[emma]

@ Waffles - food porn - that's the phrase I was looking for earlier :)

Ok, keep going boys in blue and running-commentary-folks on the blog. I've been up since before 5 and this gal needs her beauty sleep.

Hoping to read a lovely post over breakfast Vinay - about 5:45 would be nice but I can also use a small break at work around 9.....

Cheerio

[Ken Baumgartner]

I can't watch either and it sucks!

Regional blah blah blah. Who cares if I am in Senators territory?

VM Replies: Moe, what feed are you watching?

[Sue]

Oh God! Two Leafs in the penalty box and a TIE GAME now!!!

WHERE IS THE VODKA??????

[Simmer]

@ sue you may have spoken too soon... as for myself I do enjoy a couple of blue pilsners during the game but like princess scab I have to enlighten minds tomorrow

[gettingcozywithsarkozy]

What did the refs think, "hmmm, lets just randomly start calling penalties on the Leafs"!!?!??!

[Ken Baumgartner]

RDS? wait Hoofheartz you are a genius, juft go to the Leafs website and listen to the radio feed on the internet. BRILLIANT!

[waffles2010]

I heard them say it was on TSN if you are in the Montreal region, no idea if this helps as I'm sure you've checked. But nothing ventured, nothing gained.

[Kyle]

Anyone having World Junior flashbacks right now?

[Sue]

Dear God!! There are collapsing like a house of cards in a mild breeze!!!!! I can't take it!!!!

[hoofheartz]

Sad to say Bomber but thats the Gary Butthead NHL for you. At least when I sent an email to Sportsnet thats what they responded with (well not in those exact words but you get the point).

[Ken Baumgartner]

Unfortunately the internet is delayed by 10 seconds. Nice try. But I saw the goal YES!

[TG77]

http://www.myp2pforum.eu/threads/52704-NHL-Today!-February-24th-2011

The one on hexsports.com is fading in and out but I am in somewhat rural BC right now outside of the city so could be the signal at the resort.

VM Replies: Thanks, TG77.
Resort? Look at you!

[TG77]

The gf has a work conference at a hot springs resort so who am i to say no to a free place to stay. Also hammering home the Sam Adams Winter Lager. Leafs-Habs games stress me out! I have managed to miss each Leafs goal on account of the feed but sadly see each Habs goal.

[Ken Baumgartner]

I will have to listen in french. I can live with that as long as I hear a lot of "eh la buuuut," from the commentator when the Leafs score.

[Ken Baumgartner]

TG77 YOU ARE THE MAN! It Joe Bowen Vinay you're awesome too. In fact everyone is awesome!

[Ken Baumgartner]

Sportsnet in Ottawa right now has DARTS on TV.

VM Replies: Oh, man. That is brutal.

[Alecia]

Sorry I am in and out here but some people are complaining about no feed, has anyone tried this?

http://atdhenet.tv/34561/watch-toronto-maple-leafs-vs-montreal-canadiens

[TimB]

I think the Leafs power play looked a lot better in french.

VM Replies: This has Comment of The Day possibility.

[wcdixon]

Found a streaming feed online and watching - little choppy but can see puck. At least I think or hope thats a puck. Can see score still 4-3 though. Phew.

[Boo Who?]

Holy jaw-dropper Batman!! Webster scored!?? You are hereby (temporarily) absolved of all your sins my good man.

Kessel pots two - did he yawn? Maybe he needs to score a few more before it gets tiresome. Try it and see, Phil.

@ EnJoy - ha ha, that was idea ;) Maybe I'll make myself scarce again?

@ Sue - thank you! Any game in which Webbie scores is a must-see in my book though. Found a feed, so here's to hoping the 3rd is exciting.

[Ken Baumgartner]

I did try that one before Alecia, but that website turned on my antivirus alarm bells like crazy. The one TG77 gave us was clean. But you want to take of us Alecia, you're awesome too!

[TimB]

Sportsnet East. Yes sir,Bomber, darts it is. Looked like the International Worldwide Super Senior Darts Tournament though.

[Boo Who?]

Off-topic - someone just told me it's supposed to be -17 in Vancouver tonight?!? WTF!? I did not sign up for this.

[moe green]

Sorry guys, I was busy. Try this feed if you need it.

http://www.hexsports.com/

[waffles2010]

4 points out if they hang on and win here. Period of the year coming up.

[Sue]

@Simmer In all honesty, I too only have a couple of beers during the games. The vodka only comes out in critical situations (such as the playoffs, or a complete and utter collapse). The stress level does increase greatly during the nights that the Leafs are on the ice though!

[Ken Baumgartner]

Kessel has 2 goals and an assist. He is on fire.

[Alecia]

Optimus Reim... it's official.

http://a.yfrog.com/img615/2309/wdmwj.jpg

[waffles2010]

I think Greg Millen sounds better in mute.

[Alecia]

Sorry Ken, I am on a Mac, no anti-virus alerts here.

[moe green]

And what an assist Bomber.

[Sensi-Bill]

Finally got here, with about 8 minutes to go in the 2nd. Have the game on TV on RDS with the French play-by-play on mute
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Meanwhile have the game on AM640 in Toronto, via the Internet.
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Unfortunately they aren't synced. Radio seemed a couple of minutes or so ahead, but by the end of the period, they seemed about a minute behind. Go figure
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It's not that I have anything against commentary/play by play in French --- they certainly make the game sound so much more exciting. "Et le BUUUUUT!!!!"
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Then again, I also love the calm, unbiased play-by-play of the guy on AM640.
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But if I'm following the comments here, I'd like to be as up to date as possible.
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Will have to see which ---TV or radio --- is running ahead during the 3rd.

[moe green]

Kessel's reaction to the Bozak goal was odd.

[Ken Baumgartner]

Who coined that name? Was it here?

[Boo Who?]

"I ducked!" I LOL'ed.

[Ken Baumgartner]

LUPUL, SCORE A FREAKING GOAL!

[Sensi-Bill]

Going with RDS.
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Was surprised when I got here that I didn't see any anti-Sensi-Bill posts, until I realized the post I wrote earlier didn't go through. So, though it has nothing to do with tonight's game, I'll post it below and people can read it during commercial breaks.
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And if it gets you needlessly riled up, just use that sudden influx of energy to cheer for the Leafs? (wg)

[moe green]

Kessel the playmaker. Maybe he can be his own centre!

[gettingcozywithsarkozy]

Whoaa... now I remember why I don't feel bad for letting Gill go!

[Ken Baumgartner]

SCORESSS!

[Sensi-Bill]

@the other feisty chick here whose name I can't remember
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"This place is becoming overrun with Habs and Sens fans (It's just an observation!! Don't have a cow.)"
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Gee, one little reply in how long, and I'm back to helping overrun this blog again?
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Man, I can't believe the xenophobic paranoia that lies barely under the surface with some people here.
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Two Habs fans and one Sens fan, and not a Troll among them, and still some are not so subtly campaigning for the pure wool of blue and white exclusivity.
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None of us are anywhere near as critical of the Maple Leafs as most of the Leaf fans here, and yet the welcome we were extended here has started to ring hollow in the hearts and minds of SOME who seem to prefer the slightly incestuous chat of Leaf fans only.
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For some, we seem tentatively welcome IF we allow ourselves to be regarded as secret Leaf fans who just haven't quite emerged from the closet yet.
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Even as we respect, and often praise, the loyalty of Leaf fans here, our loyalty to our own teams is not respected, by some, not all.
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As for threats to overrun this blog, the numbers hardly suggest the odds --- three against how many? --- are in our favour. Do some Leaf fans feel so privately insecure that they fear being seduced over to other teams by friendly guests?
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And appreciative and respectful guests is what I think we, the Invading Three-Person Horde, have considered ourselves all along. But I have been seeing enough anti-outsider sentiment seeping to the surface here to suspect that even friendly rivalry is not truly welcomed by SOME local residents. (And I don't necessarily mean the feisty young thing whose post has triggered this reply, which, frankly, has been lurking in the wings for a while now.) (wg)
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Perhaps there should be a sign posted at the door: "PRIVATE CLUB --- Leaf Fans Only"?
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These expressions of anti-outsider sentiment are just one reason I decided to take a break from posting and observe the results. My ego merely chuckled when it seemed only a few missed me, or at least only a few showed signs of missing me. (g) It wasn't a reverse bid for attention through absence, so that didn't bother me.
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I also discovered that as much as I like this place --- which I have frequently, openly noted --- I wasn't hooked on posting here. So if the anti-outsider sentiment grows and expands sufficiently, I would be slightly sad at feeling compelled to leave, but can survive such a setback with no problem at all. (Sorry, but that's just the way it is.)
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Anyway, despite the near guest-post-like length of this reply, I'm not having a cow, just making my own observation. (g) (I add the g-for-grins because otherwise you can't see the slight smile on my face, sometimes a full chuckle in my throat, as I type this stuff.)
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I may seem critical in holding up this possibly-unflattering-to-some mirror but I wouldn't take it too seriously. Heck, the observations may bear a kernel of truth or two, but were still presented with tongue mostly planted in check. (wg)
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So much so that the inside of my cheek is now sore and my tongue has developed an inconvenient cramp just in time for dinner. LOL
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Anyway, Vinay has told me he'd never throw me out of here and it would take more than a bit of Blue and White, xenophobic paranoia, to scare me off. (wg)
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Heck, bottom line is with all the Trolls out there, you're LUCKY to have us. *wink*
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And if anyone insists on taking all this too seriously, just as with any possible outsider envy and/or resentment, it's more your problem than mine. (honestly friendly smile)
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As for you Missy Blooberry, guns or no guns, I've seen your photo and if I was even just a decade younger, I'd take you on in some spirited wrestling --- somewhere soft, of course, like maybe a couch. (wg)

[Kyle]

Bozak's on fire tonight! Saves a sure goal on the PK, then pots his second of the game a minute later. Gotta love it

[moe green]

Habbies are getting cranky.

[Sue]

Finally a "Holy Mackinaw!". Two for Bozak, two for Kessel. Are they the only two playing tonight? Okay ... Lebda showed up. Have been watching the Leafs since I was a small child. Am I the only one who misses the bench clearing brawls (I know that sounds bad).

[moe green]

Awesome work by Armstrong!

[Alecia]

Wow, Kessel with 2 goals and 4 points.

Bozak with 2 goals, a wicked save on the PK and 3 points.

I met Bozak this week... I must have had some effect on him. ;)

[Sue]

@Boo Who? Glad you found a feed. The third is definately nail biting so far. By the way, it was 4 here in Toronto today. A nice mild day.

[Sensi-Bill]

Hey look, another but pour les feuilles d'érable. (g)

[Sensi-Bill]

Montréal should have traded for Kovalev.

[moe green]

Alecia you need to "meet" Phaneuf and Komisarek

[moe green]

With Reimer it's as if we have an NHL calibre goaltender. Seriously for the first time in five years - maybe longer.

[Ken Baumgartner]

I wonder if Murray got a bag of pucks with that 7th rounder.

[gettingcozywithsarkozy]

Bill: it's just a blog. And from my point of view, nobody has spoken disrespectfully to you, Princess, or Geoff (surprisingly, since leaf fans have that big, bad reputation for being horrible people). Let's all hold hands and sing kumbaya. It's just hockey!

[Sue]

VM, I do want to thank you for writing this blog. Even though I didn't find it until late in the season, it really makes game night alot more fun. Following the comment thread is great! I will definately have a toast to you when we reach the ---- (the word that we dare not mention, quite yet).

VM Replies: It's been a pleasure all season long, Sue. Thanks for finding us.

[Ken Baumgartner]

I agree about Reimer Moe, I don't want to jynx him but he doesn't give up bad goals.

[moe green]

The NHL has terrible officiating. Alwasy has.

[Boo Who?]

@ Bill - I will not reveal my soft underbelly to the likes of Sens or Habs fans. I will not, I cannot, I must not. That said, why do I seem to get all the heat for even the mildest of trash talk? Everybody hating on Boo. Boo is innocent of all alleged crimes!

All these lovely men willing to time travel for me...I am truly honored. And clearly born in the wrong damn decade.

@Sue - 4 degrees?! Well I'll be back there before you know it, so prepare for a rough go of it next winter!

[Sue]

@moe green Totally agree with you on Reimer. If he keeps this up, we will be solid (finally) in net. Scrivens is probably hoping the same thing as well!

[wcdixon]

Optimus Reim...opposing power play killer! (too funny...I'm reading that everywhere now)

[Ken Baumgartner]

Sensi=Bill, your awesome, yu can com hear any time, even if you cheer for the bad guys. AND I MEAN BAD(Doh!). Did you hear that Craig Anderson is the Sens winningest goalie in 2011?

[waffles2010]

Reimer!, Reimer!, Reimer!, Reimer!, Reimer!, Reimer!
Someone else start the wave.

[moe green]

No rivalry indeed.

[Ken Baumgartner]

BOO,no no no. Only love Boo, only love. Sensi- Bill, Stop picking on our Boo-Berry

[moe green]

IS this really the Leafs?

VM Replies: They believe, dude. They believe.

[wcdixon]

Nice final 2 minutes Leafs! Some great shifts for the win!

[moe green]

I am... near speechless... near tears... brb.

[Boo Who?]

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! It's flexin' time!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TimB]

très bonne! Go Penguins Go!

[gettingcozywithsarkozy]

Sloppy at times tonight, but overall a good effort. Kudos to the unsung heros at the end of the third there (Boyce, Sjostrom) for keeping the habs shut in their own end on a 1 on 4. Schenn owns those hobbits!!! I'll take the 5-4 win and the 2 points!

[Sue]

4 points out! I can't handle the stress! Gotta get my Reimer shirt tomorrow! Until Saturday folks!

[Ken Baumgartner]

4 points back and Atlanta in the rear view mirror, wow!

[moe green]

Four goals against and I am impressed with the effort.

[waffles2010]

Beating the Habs is a very good thing, feels good actually. Saturday night, the Penguins. Here we go boys and girls.

[Boo Who?]

Awww, thanks Ken. But I think (hope?) Bill knows the love is mutual. If not, well he's a Sens fan so I won't lose too much sleep about it. ;)

[Boo Who?]

OP-TI-MUS! OP-TI-MUS! OP-TI-MUS! (That actually works for me. My new chant!)

[moe green]

Four points behind the Carolina Candy-canes

[Sensi-Bill]

*whispers to getting cozy*
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Not being an "outsider" you might not have noticed the negative comments and complaints. I could list a number of examples, but that's not the point.
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I merely thought I spotted some TiC (tongue-in-cheek) trash talk and thought I'd have a little fun with it with some true, but "so-what" type, of observations/trash talk of my own.
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So I appreciate your concern but reiterate that while the anti-outsider sentiment can be a bit annoying, at times, it is NOT a serious issue.
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I will, however apologize to you. Yes, this blog is (most of the time) simply about hockey, so I do apologize for introducing a different sport --- wrestling --- into the conversation. (g)

[Alecia]

Speechless.

Off to the streets to dance!

[Ken Baumgartner]

Everybody sign with me
OLAAAY OLAY OLAY OLAAY
OLAAAAAY
OLAAAAAAAY

again

OLAAAY OLAY OLAY OLAAY
OLAAAAAY
OLAAAAAAAY

[TimB]

I'm going to see if maybe I can find the game Saturday in Portuguese.

[Alecia]

OLAAAY OLAY OLAY OLAAY
OLAAAAAY
OLAAAAAAAYOLAAAY OLAY OLAY OLAAY
OLAAAAAY
OLAAAAAAAYOLAAAY OLAY OLAY OLAAY
OLAAAAAY
OLAAAAAAAYOLAAAY OLAY OLAY OLAAY
OLAAAAAY
OLAAAAAAAYOLAAAY OLAY OLAY OLAAY
OLAAAAAY
OLAAAAAAAYOLAAAY OLAY OLAY OLAAY
OLAAAAAY
OLAAAAAAAY