Map of the Week: Changes in gun ownership rates

LUCAS OLENIUK/TORONTO STAR

Map: Percentage change in firearms licences, July 2008 to Dec. 2009

Map: Firearms licences as a percentage of population, Greater Toronto Area

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One of our most popular maps has been one I produced last year showing gun ownership rates in the GTA by postal code.

Earlier this fall, I filed a fresh access-to-information request with the RCMP, asking for similar data. It is up-to-date to December 2009. Having both sets of numbers allows us to map change in gun licence rates. The earlier data was taken in July of 2008, so the map shows change over about 18 months.

The map shows gun ownership stable or falling in all but four Toronto postal codes, but rising in much of the 905. Gun ownership rose over the period in most postal codes in Caledon and parts of Ajax, Pickering and Oshawa.

It would be interesting to know what the numbers reflect. Does it map falling and rising numbers of gun owners, or different policing strategies? Toronto police have encouraged owners of unused firearms to turn them in; a strategy aimed at getting owners of unlicenced long guns to register them properly would show an increase. Or there could just be a rise in gun ownership in parts of the 905.

The map of gun licence rates shows more gun owners in rural areas. Within the suburban parts of the GTA, gun ownership is higher in Kleinburg, Woodbridge and Oshawa.

The total of gun licences is the sum of the possession-and-acquisition licences and the older grandfathered possession-only licences in any given case. In 13 of the 192 postal areas, the total fell below a privacy threshold (which seems to be about 20) and was censored.

Map(s) of the Week: Gun ownership, week 2

This week, our series on gun ownership in the GTA continues with three more maps:

Percentage change in the firearms licence rate, 2004-2008

This is a map showing which GTA neighbourhoods have had their gun licence rates rise, fall or stay stable over the last four years.

The firearms licence rate has generally fallen or remained stable through most of the GTA over the last four years. Across the area, the gun license rate fell from 16.1 per 1,000 to 14.5 per 1,000 over the period.

The licence rate rose by more than 5% in 18 FSAs, with L4L (Woodbridge) L4J (Thornhill) L4S (northeast Richmond Hill) and L3Y (Newmarket) topping the list.

There are some odd cases. L4H (Kleinburg) and L5W (the Derry Rd. W. and Mavis Rd. area of Mississauga) are under 30% of their gun licence rate in 2004. What seems to have happened in Kleinburg (where population increased from 7,710 to 49,799 over the four-year period) was that the gun licence rate has moved from a rural level of 67 per 1,000 to a suburban level of 16 per 1,000. The actual number of licence holders in L4H has increased.

L6C (Unionville) and L7A (northwest Brampton) show similar patterns.

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Proportion of gun owners who hunt

One question about firearms ownership is what, if anything, the weapons are used for, and how that might vary by neighbourhood.

The question is hard to answer from public records, but one point of comparison is Ontario hunting permits.

This map shows the percentage of firearms licence holders who took out Ontario hunting permits in 2007, making the assumption that they fall into the same group. I realize that that creates problems with bow hunters, who need hunting permits but may not also be firearms owners.

Several patterns emerge. The proportion of hunters is highest at 73% in L4H (Kleinburg), followed by L4L (Woodbridge), M6E (the area off Dufferin between Eglinton Ave. W. and St. Clair Ave. W.) and M6M (Keele St. and Eglinton Ave. W.) and L6A (Maple).

At the other end of the scale, we see a string of high-income neighbourhoods in the central city where gun owners seem to seldom hunt. In Toronto, the map strongly resembles the income map of the city - perhaps wealthy people are more willing to keep a valuable firearm even though it isn't being regularly used.

At the bottom of the list we have M4Y, centred on Jarvis St. and Wellesley St. E., where as few as 14% of registered gun owners seem to have hunted last year.

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Hunting permits

L4H (Woodbridge) leads the  map of 2007 provincial hunting permits, with 24.2 residents per 1,000 having bought one last year.

The fishing and camping maps showed that Oshawa and nearby towns lead the region in outdoor recreation, and the hunting map shows the same pattern. Three of the top six FSAs for hunting permits are in Oshawa (L1H, L1G, L1J), and north Pickering (L1Y) is also in the top six.

Map(s) of the Week: Gun ownership, week 1

RICK EGLINTON/TORONTO STAR

This week's map is the first installment in a two-week series on gun ownership in the GTA. It shows firearm licence holders as a percentage of the complete population (all ages) by postal area.

Next week, we will compare the 2008 data in this map with equivalent data from 2004 to see where in the GTA gun ownership is rising and falling. As well, we will map hunting permit data to look how the relationship between hunting and gun ownership changes between neighbourhoods.

In the 905, gun ownership is highest in the Woodbridge area of Vaughan (L4L), the rural area north of Pickering (L1Y), Newmarket (L3Y), and Oshawa (L1G, L1J, L1H).

Gun ownership rates are generally lower in the 416 area code. Lawrence Park (M4N) leads the city, followed by the area near the former Downsview military base (M3K), the southeastern corner of Etobicoke (M8W) and the Royal York Rd./Bloor St. W. area of Etobicoke (M8X).

Information was obtained under the federal Access to Information Act from the Canadian Firearms Centre. For some low-population FSAs with fewer than 40 licence holders, the RCMP censored out the number. For the 166 FSAs, we have partial data for seven, no data for six, and complete data for the remainder. The total of licences in each case come from adding together the two types of firearms licences: possession and acquisition licence holders registered after 1991 and holders of the grandfathered possession-only licences obtained before then.

Click on the image to see the map.

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