|Jennifer Hudson’s supposed lock for a Best Supporting Actress win is in doubt.|
DOING THE MATH: It’s always dangerous to allow a words guy near numbers. But I haven’t seen any Einsteins out there crunching the data on the Best Picture contenders, so I guess it’s up to me.
Tradition has it that the leading Academy Awards nominee not only gets a Best Picture nod, but almost always goes on to win the prize as well.
But as everyone now knows, Dreamgirls made Oscar history this week by becoming the first nominees champ to not have a Best Picture bid in its basket of kudos.
Take a closer look, though and perhaps we’ve all erred by naming just one champ. There might actually be three of them.
Dreamgirls has eight nominations, which is on the low side to begin with. But three of those nods are in the Best Original Song category, for the tunes “Listen,” “Love You I Do” and “Patience.”
|Little Miss Sunshine’s Abigail Breslin, the 10-year-old firecracker who charms everybody, male or female, young or old, could dance home with an Oscar.|
The film can win just a single Oscar for its songs, no matter how popular they are, which means the best it can do on Feb. 25 is to take six golden statues. And that result is far from assured, because it’s clear the Academy isn’t as enchanted with Dreamgirls as it obviously is with Little Miss Sunshine.
As the Dreamgirls skyrocket sputters, Jennifer Hudson’s supposed lock for a Best Supporting Actress win is in doubt. She could quite conceivably lose to Little Miss Sunshine’s Abigail Breslin, the 10-year-old firecracker who charms everybody, male or female, young or old.
Now look at Babel, which has seven nominations, Best Picture included. Two of Babel’s noms are for Best Supporting Actress for Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi. Like Dreamgirls, the film could take a maximum of six Oscars. Unlike Dreamgirls, the dual acting nomination indicates a deeper appreciation of this movie by the Academy, which is dominated by actors.
Then there’s The Queen, which has six nominations, none one of them competing and one an almost guaranteed winner: Helen Mirren as Best Actress. The film also has a Best Picture nomination.
So Dreamgirls, Babel and The Queen could each win statues, but they couldn’t all do it together. And only Babel and The Queen could win Best Picture.
|Only nine movies have ever won Best Picture without an accompanying nod for editing. The last time that happened was in 1980, when Robert Redford’s Ordinary People beat Martin Scorsese’s Raging Bull in an awards outcome often cited as one of the weirdest.|
Perhaps there are really three nominations leaders? Or am I missing something here?
Here’s something else to key into your calculator. Only nine movies have ever won Best Picture without an accompanying nod for editing.
The last time that happened was in 1980, when Robert Redford’s Ordinary People beat Martin Scorsese’s Raging Bull in an awards outcome often cited as one of the weirdest.
Only two of the current Best Picture nominees also have nominations for editing: Babel and The Departed (which has total of five noms).
Could this spell trouble for The Queen? The lack of an editing nomination last year for Brokeback Mountain may have foretold the film’s loss for the Best Picture title to Crash, which did have one.
Anyone with a slide rule or crystal ball who wants to challenge these numbers and theories, feel free to let me know.