Nomination day

MOTOWN BLUES: And I’m telling you that they’re not going … to the Oscar bigtime.

AP Photo/DreamWorks, David James

Eddie Murphy , above, was nominated for Best Supporting Actor and co-star Jennifer Hudson was nominated for Best Supporting Actress for Dreamgirls, but it didn't get a Best Picture nod.

Dreamgirls led the nominations today for the 79th Academy Awards with eight nods, but the Motown musical still managed to look like the biggest loser.

It didn’t score a nomination for Best Picture, something that may be a first in the annals of Oscar history. The Academy has confirmed it's the fist time a nominations leader didn't also get Best Picture nod.

For that matter, Dreamgirls was also knocked out of the race for Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay.

It did manage noms for Best Supporting Actor for Eddie Murphy and Best Supporting Actress for Jennifer Hudson, along with bids for art direction, costumes, sound mixing and original song.

Dreamgirls has three nominations for Best Original Song: “Listen,” “Love You I Do” and “Patience.”

This means the most Oscars it can possibly win is six, and the chance of it sweeping the full half-dozen is slim, especially if votes for those three songs cancel each other out.

It’s quite a comedown for a movie that many felt would be the one to beat at this year’s Academy Awards.

But musicals have always been a hit-or-miss thing at the Oscars. Back in 1972, Cabaret swept the ceremony with eight wins, but Best Picture wasn’t won of them. It has the dubious distinction of having the most Oscar wins of any film without winning Best Picture.

File photo

Cabaret, starring  Liza Minelli and Joel Grey swept the 1972 Oscars and Cabaret has the dubious distinction of having the most Oscar wins of any film without winning Best Picture.

Yet even that outcome would be preferable to the nightmare facing the Dreamgirls team.

In other Oscar news, the nominations were generally wise and worthy, with no embarrassments amongst the Best Picture five: Babel, The Departed, Letters From Iwo Jima and Little Miss Sunshine.

Clint Eastwood’s gambit to bump up the release date for Letters From Iwo Jima after its companion World War II epic Flags of Our Fathers crashed and burned proved to very smart. Letters is in the running for picture, director, original screenplay and sound editing.

Canadians can be especially proud, because it’s a banner year for us at the Oscars, especially if you happen to come from London, Ont.

London-born Ryan Gosling is up for Best Actor for Half Nelson while fellow Londoner Paul Haggis is nominated for Best Original Screenplay for Letters From Iwo Jima, which he says with co-writer Iris Yamashita.

Toronto’s Deepa Mehta is in contention for Best Foreign-Language Film with Water, which managed to knock Pedro Almodóvar’s higher-profile Volver out of the fifth slot in the category.

And Montreal’s Torill Kove is keeping the National Film Board’s maple leaf flying in the Best Animated Short category. Her nomination for The Danish Poet is her second Oscar nom, the previous one being for My Grandmother Ironed the King’s Shirts in 2000.

Taking the fifth

AP PHOTO/CHARLES REX ARBOGAST

Shown are the five phases in the making of the Oscar statue at the Chicago plant of R.S. Owens Co. which has manufactured the coveted award since 1983.

Yawns of boredom as well as sleepiness will greet many of the anointed picks Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. Toronto time, when nominations for the 79th annual Academy Awards are announced.

Helen Mirren for Best Actress and Forest Whitaker for Best Actor? Of course. The Departed and Dreamgirls for Best Picture? Ditto. Jennifer Hudson for Best Supporting Actress? Snore.

But you can expect at least a few jolts before you’ve sipped your morning java.

What’s always interesting about Oscar noms is how often the fifth choice comes out of left field. No matter how many critics’ groups and industry guilds weigh in prior to Oscar, the Academy always seems to come up with tantalizing long shots to round out its nominee lists.

Think of William Hurt’s nod for Best Supporting Actor last year, the only cast member of David Cronenberg’s very fine History of Violence to win Academy recognition. And remember how Atom Egoyan (The Sweet Hereafter) “stole” the Best Director’s slot from James L. Brooks (As Good As It Gets) a decade ago?

AP PHOTO/IFC FILMS, MACALL POLAY

Will Maggie Gyllenhaal get a Best Actress nomination for Sherrybaby? Gyllenhaal received a Golden Globe nomination, but is a longshot to get an Oscar nom for her role in this little-seen movie.

Size is the reason for this. The Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences is larger and more diverse than the other packs of prognosticators out there. Its 5,830 members, representing everybody from actors to publicists, are bound to nominate at least a few people and films that haven’t been celebrated elsewhere.

Guessing the “fifth column” is what keeps the Oscars interesting and fun, especially in the Best Picture category, where four of the five slots look like slam dunks and the fifth is a complete wild shot.

With this in mind, here are my predictions for the top six categories, each with four slots I’m calling sure bets and the dark horses taking the fifth:

BEST PICTURE

The Departed

Dreamgirls

Little Miss Sunshine

The Queen

Fifth column: Babel, United 93, Letters From Iwo Jima, Little Children, Pan’s Labyrinth, Children of Men and The Devil Wears Prada.

BEST DIRECTOR:

Martin Scorsese, The Departed

Stephen Frears, The Queen

Bill Condon, Dreamgirls

Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris, Little Miss Sunshine

Fifth column: Clint Eastwood (Letters From Iwo Jima), Alejandro González Iñárritu (Babel), Paul Greengrass (United 93), Guillermo Del Toro (Pan’s Labyrinth) and Alfonso Cuarón (Children of Men).

BEST ACTOR:

Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

Peter O’Toole, Venus

Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed

Fifth column: Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan), Leonardo DiCaprio (Blood Diamond), Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson), Daniel Craig (Casino Royale), Matt Damon (The Departed), Derek Luke (Catch a Fire).

BEST ACTRESS:

Helen Mirren, The Queen

Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada

Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal

Kate Winslet, Little Children

Fifth column: Penélope Cruz (Volver), Beyoncé Knowles (Dreamgirls), Cate Blanchett (Notes on a Scandal), Maggie Gyllenhaal (Sherrybaby).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:

Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls

Alan Arkin, Little Miss Sunshine

Djimon Honsou, Blood Diamond

Jackie Earle Haley, Little Children

Fifth column: Mark Wahlberg (The Departed), Jack Nicholson (The Departed), Michael Sheen (The Queen),

Brad Pitt (Babel), James McAvoy (The Last King of Scotland), Steve Carell (Little Miss Sunshine), Leslie Phillips (Venus), Tim Robbins (Catch a Fire).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:

Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls

Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal

Abigail Breslin, Little Miss Sunshine

Toni Collette, Little Miss Sunshine

Fifth column: Rinko Kikuchi (Babel), Emily Blunt (The Devil Wears Prada), Catherine O’Hara (For Your Consideration), Emma Thompson (Stranger Than Fiction), Shareeka Epps (Half Nelson).

Welcome to my Oscarology blog

Starting Monday, Jan. 22 and for the following five weeks, I'll be following the Oscar action, seeking enlightenment on the path to the 79th annual Academy Awards on Feb. 25.

I'll read the tea leaves, harken to the buzz and gaze into the crystal ball.

Let's see if I can help you win your office Oscar pool.

See you on Monday...

Cheers,
Peter Howell.