Sourcing a cross-border smear

Well, here's something interesting, on ABC News in the U.S., no less.

A "source close to the Prime Minister's Office" has told ABC News who leaked some misinformation to CTV News this week about conversations between the Canadian government and Barack Obama's campaign. The alleged leaker? None other than Ian Brodie, chief of staff to Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Now, Liberal foreign affairs critic Bob Rae sees this as pretty serious. He believes that the Harperites are actually trying to sink Obama's campaign.

"This is Republican International in action. The Harper government is so ideological and so tied to the Republicans that they will use any opportunity to throw a wrench into the Obama campaign," Rae says in an email sent out this afternoon. (Read the full email at the end of this blog post)

But let's also pause and look again at that ABC News item for a second. Someone close to the PMO is outing Ian Brodie as an anonymous leaker. Hope that "source's" job is secure.

And now, let's also look at what this "source close to the Prime Minister's Office" is saying about how all the misinforming happened.

Apparently, Brodie was the victim of some "exaggeration" by Canada's ambassador to the U.S., Michael Wilson. Ah yes, that notorious exaggerator, Michael Wilson, former finance minister in Brian Mulroney's government, one of the straightest, most understated cabinet members in those times. Does this sound a bit familiar? Didn't "sources" in the PMO try to blame the military for misinformation around the issue of Afghan detainees a few weeks ago? Blame that later had to be retracted? And isn't it interesting how "sources" close to this government are quick to turn on old Mulroney Conservatives when the going gets tough?

It would probably be very interesting to hear conversations going on this afternoon inside the PMO and between Ottawa and Washington. Unless we're reading the ABC News item incorrectly, someone "close to the Prime Minister's Office" has managed to smear the PMO chief of staff and Canada's ambassador to the U.S in one fell swoop.

And, to hear Rae tell it, Obama also got splattered in the process. Here's the full text of his email:

Subject: The Harper Conservatives Are Trying to Sink Obama

Canadians are rightly enraged when foreign governments try to create mischief in the course of our political life.

Watching and reading the news over the last two nights, it is fascinating to watch Republican International at work. The Harper farm team is doing their loyal best to bring down Obama. Tom Clark at CTV is fed a story, apparently from "senior sources" that a "senior official" from Senator Obama's campaign let them know that any talk about NAFTA was just for show. He duly reports the story on the news. The story naturally causes a flurry in Ohio, where the primary is close, and where Senator Clinton and Senator Obama are into an intense battle for Democratic voters. Some Canadians might remember that changing the labour and environmental clauses in NAFTA was a big issue for us as well.

Senator Obama's campaign spends the day yesterday denying it, as does the Canadian Embassy. But CTV sticks to the story because "senior sources" in the PMO continue to confirm it. Tom Clark's original story also refers to the possibility of a McCain visit to Canada to reinforce his and Stephen Harper's love affair with free trade.

Leaks like this don't happen by chance, and they don't happen by accident. This is Republican International in action. The Harper government is so ideological and so tied to the Republicans that they will use any opportunity to throw a wrench into the Obama campaign. It isn't pretty and it isn't even smart (if Senator Obama wins he will remember this incident), but it reflects how these guys do business. Throw the ball at your head. Every time.

This week's theme: Election?

Few Canadians probably realize that the Conservatives run Parliament on a "theme of the week" basis. This government loves stuff like this — props, themes, catch phrases — all the standard tools of marketing. One sometimes wonders if Larry Tate and Darren Stevens from Bewitched are the real brains behind the communications operation in Ottawa. Since last fall, for instance, we’ve had "getting the job done on justice and tax cuts" week and "effective economic leadership" week — all duly announced in advance each Thursday in the House at 3 p.m. by Government House Leader Peter Van Loan.

Next week’s theme, announced by Van Loan yesterday, is "confidence in the Conservative government week."

It’s just idle musing right now, but there are some signs that Liberals — emboldened by the developing scandal over the Chuck Cadman controversy — might just be thinking that maybe it is time to say they have no confidence in the Harper government.

Halton MP Garth Turner is more than hinting at it. "I think we ought to be thinking about bringing these guys down," Turner told reporters. (Turner, incidentally, had a not-bad rebuttal in the Commons today, in reply to a rather sanctimonious rant from Conservative MP James Moore. Moore was taking a tack along the lines of "I knew Chuck Cadman and you’re no Conservative" when Turner shot back: "Mr. Speaker, if that is how they treat their dear friends I am glad I am not on that side of the aisle any more.")

At any rate, have a look at the transcript of Liberal MP Mark Holland, talking to reporters after Question Period today:

Mark Holland: We are deeply concerned by what we have seen over the last number of days. This is a huge story. I think we’re all taken by the explosive allegations. Listening to the Prime Minister’s words on tape where he said that there was a financial consideration that was offered to Chuck Cadman is, is unbelievable, it’s devastating, it goes right into the office of the Prime Minister and it may very well be something that we have to, to consider the future of this Parliament about. But that’s not a decision that’s been made yet.

Question: Is it enough in your mind though to pull the plug?

Mark Holland: Well I think we have to talk about it as a caucus. I think that we’re reeling from the shock of this. I think all Canadians are completely taken by, by the size of this. I mean, this is incredible. This is monumental news and I think we need to digest that and to talk about it with our constituents before making a decision of that gravity.

Some reporters, like me, might be using this weekend to get our heads around the idea of a possible election kickoff next week.

Don Valley West

On Sunday afternoon this weekend, Liberals in Don Valley West choose their candidate for the next election. This race has been a source of intense interest for partisans in Toronto ever since the popular and well-liked MP, John Godfrey, announced before Christmas that he wouldn't be running again. It's popular, naturally, because the winning candidate has a pretty good shot at becoming an MP.

For a while there, it looked like the field would be very crowded with candidates, but in recent days, it's narrowed down to just five. The field got significantly smaller this week when Deborah Coyne withdrew from the race. Coyne is a constitutional expert, who twice ran against Jack Layton in Toronto-Danforth for the Liberals. She's also the mother of the late Pierre Trudeau's only daughter, born in 1991.

I mention that bit about Trudeau because not many people noticed that the 16-year-old Sarah Coyne actually made what I believe are her first comments to the media recently, talking to CP's Joan Bryden about her mom's campaign in Don Valley West. Sarah Coyne was explaining to Bryden that she didn't like the way the race was being fought with dubious membership sales.

"It makes me want to be more involved because I feel like there should be a change made if this kind of thing is going on," she said. (The complaints about the race may also explain why Coyne is out of it.) Here's a copy of the full story, as it appeared on the Macleans web site.

Back to Don Valley West and the Sunday meeting.

Coyne threw her support to Rob Oliphant, a United Church minister who was also an adviser to Michael Ignatieff's leadership campaign. Actually, it's looking like a pretty spirited contest between Oliphant and former Liberal MP Sam Bulte. Other candidates include Jonathan Mousley, a senior economist with the Ontario government, Ian Cameron, a seniors' advocate, and Mohammad Ijaz, a local business person.

UPDATE (March 3): Rob Oliphant, the United Church minister and former Ignatieff adviser, won the race to be the next Liberal candidate in Don Valley West.

What's the crime bill say on bribery?

The Conservatives' big crime bill - you know, the one that prompted the Harper ultimatum to Liberal senators? - is receiving royal assent today.

Liberal MP Dominic LeBlanc, who's also the justice critic, said he was headed over to the ceremony to kick up a fuss, because now he's not convinced that the Conservatives are as tough on crime as they say they are. Why? "There are no mandatory minimums for bribery," LeBlanc cracked.

(That's a reference to the big and developing story in Ottawa today about whether the Conservatives tried to buy the vote of former MP Chuck Cadman back in 2005.)

Here's the letter that LeBlanc has sent (.pdf) today to the RCMP.

Politics and Pen dinner

Last night was the annual Politics and Pen dinner in Ottawa, which has come to be seen as a premiere social event in the capital. It's a fundraiser for the Writer's Trust and as several speakers noted last night, it is such a popular occasion that there are two waiting lists for it - one for tickets and the other for people who want to be sponsors. Imagine - you want to donate to the Writers' Trust and you're told you have to wait in line!

A bit of history here - the P&P dinner actually became a large event during the Liberal years, mainly because it was run by some powerful political spouses, including Sheila Martin, wife of the former prime minister. Martin stopped going to the parliamentary press gallery dinner in the late 1990s, because there were inevitably jokes about his leadership ambitions and he got antsy about how those jokes went over with Jean Chrétien. So the P&P dinner was the place for Martin social sightings and those of his growing band of supporters during those tense years.

Fast forward to today, and we have a prime minister who also isn't big on the gallery dinner, having also banned most of his caucus and cabinet from attending the latest one last fall. But Conservatives do come out in force for this event, including Laureen Harper and a healthy number of heavy cabinet hitters, including Finance Minister Jim Flaherty.

The main event at this dinner is the announcement of the winner of the Shaughnessy Cohen award for political books, named after my late friend and subject of my own second book. Shaughnessy was the Windsor MP who abruptly died 10 years ago this December, collapsing on the floor of the Commons and leaving her many friends stunned and saddened. I can tell you, Shaughnessy would be delighted that she gets remembered every year at a party like Politics and the Pen. As one of the hosts, CTV's Mike Duffy pointed out last night, Shaughnessy actually spent her last evening on earth at the Chateau Laurier, where last night's party was held.

I think I can also tell you that Shaughn would have been delighted with the winners of last night's prize - The Unexpected War, by Eugene Lang and Janice Gross-Stein.

Neither of the authors expected to win. Janice told the crowd she was so sure that she wasn't winning that she had four glasses of wine before the prize was announced.

Nonetheless, she and Gene were remarkably lucid and eloquent.

Stronach another step closer to political exit

Belinda Stronach, who's stepping down as the MP for Newmarket-Aurora, has also finally given up her duties as the head of the Liberal women's caucus.

Stronach had remained in charge of the women's group even though she announced last spring she wouldn't be running again. She did appear late last fall to unveil Pink Book Two, the Liberals' second set of platform policies for women, but as of today, she's wound down the job. Stronach is returning to the private sector -- specifically to help run the Magna car parts empire founded by her father, Frank.

 

Oxymoron watch: "Liberal opposition"

Today's lingering question is whether Stephane Dion and his Liberals, by supporting the budget, have "jumped the shark."

The phrase is borrowed from pop culture and an 11-year-old website that documents the precise point when a sitcom becomes so ridiculous that you know its days on air are numbered. On the old show Happy Days, it happened when Fonzie water-skied over a shark. Hence the name.

So, is this the moment? You have to go all the way back to Lester Pearson's days in the 1960s to find another minority government that managed to deliver three budgets with the help of the opposition.

Sooner or later, one presumes, the phrase "Liberal opposition" is going to start seeming a bit like an oxymoron. Maybe you can say that an opposition party jumps the shark when it appears this way on Rick Mercer's show. (See Message from the Liberals.)

Outside the Liberal caucus room today, Senator David Smith, one of the campaign co-chairs, kept saying that the leader would defeat Harper's government when "strategically, we're in the best position to win."

Logically, however, that must mean Liberals aren't in that position now, right?

"Well, I'm not saying that!" Smith said. "It's when you're best in a position to win!"

Live blog: The budget reaction

5:33 p.m. A little over an hour since Dion told us that there would be no election, and any excitement surrounding budget day seems to be rapidly dwindling. Some pundits are predicting that this budget will be a distant memory in a couple of days.

As for Liberal MPs, they have a meeting tonight to be "briefed" on the budget. And then there's tomorrow's regular Wednesday meeting of caucus. Of course there will also be discussion about why Dion made the decision he did - it's said that he didn't tell them what he was going to do and most had to learn from the TV.

Are there MPs who are ticked about this? Yes. Are there MPs who would like to have an election ASAP? Yes. But it's unlikely they will go public. That doesn't mean we won't keep looking for them...

4:46 p.m. Liberal MPs are starting to filter into the hallway. They seem mainly okay about propping up this budget. John Godfrey, the soon-to-be former MP for Don Valley West, exited the chamber hauling a suitcase and heading to New York. "I guess I don't have to stick around now for the destruction of the government," he said.

4:40 p.m. And with Dion's pronouncement, the crowd of reporters has dispersed, presumably to make March vacation plans. Dion, incidentally, came out into the foyer holding the hand of his wife, Janine Krieber. That's unusual - a reflection no doubt of how significant that small statement was.

4:35 p.m. Dion is here. It doesn't sound like he's crazy about this "very modest" budget. He's not taking any questions.

He's decided it's not worth provoking an election. There it is.

4:30 p.m. Garth Turner wants the Liberals to fight an election over this budget. But he's not sure what Dion thinks.

The former Conservative-turned-Liberal, MP for Halton, is one of the most hawkish in the caucus, in wanting to provoke the government's collapse. And he thinks all the ingredients are there for a good fight. But he's wandering around this lobby like the rest of us, waiting to see what Dion decides. Clearly, the leader has decided to keep this decision to himself.

4:16 p.m. Now it's Duceppe. No surprise, he doesn't like it either. Nothing in it for anyone.

Funny, he's saying as well that the Liberals have to decide if there's an election.

4:12 p.m. Reporters are having a very hard time getting Layton to say whether this budget is worth an election. Apparently that's for Harper and Dion to decide.

4:08 p.m. One of Dion's press persons has come out and says the Liberal leader will be talking about the fact that Montreal didn't do a single trade today.

Just kidding.

Oh, here's Jack Layton. The budget, he says, surprise, surprise, is inadequate. "Clearly fails working families in Canada."

4 p.m. The Commons' lobby is one big TV studio and about 30 reporters are already gathered around the microphone where Stephane Dion is due to give his reaction to the budget. That pretty much tells you where the story is today, doesn't it?

This is not the hill to die on

The main purpose of budget lockups is to provide people with instant opinions to pronounce  when the budget is released.

We here at the Star have reached two, it seems. (And for the record, it took about a couple of hours inside the lockup for the impressions to settle in.)

First impression – this budget is complicated; an accountant’s dream.

Second impression – this is a status-quo budget, politically. Though there’s not much in here for non-Conservative voters to love – not much on the environment, no big measures to get that elusive women’s vote for the Tories – there’s not much for Liberals to hate either.

And that, as all political junkies know, is the whole end game of this budget day.  Is this the budget that will provoke the Liberals to bring down the government and plunge Canada into an election? Probably not.

If the mood in the lockup is any indication, reporters don’t seem to be planning now for an election. Some were even overheard saying they could now make vacation plans for March.

But the instant opinion we need now is from Liberal leader Stephane Dion, who is due to pronounce on the budget about a half hour after Finance Minister James Flaherty starts speaking.

I’ll be live blogging here as soon as Flaherty gets up to speak.

A rebel outpost on Sparks street

Back when I worked as a copy editor, a million years ago, we used to joke that we could put out a whole other newspaper with the material we had cut out of the pages. We mused about setting up a transmitter on the roof, reading the edited stuff over the airwaves and calling it the rebel radio broadcast. Well, this new political blog at the Star will operate a little bit like that.

You can come here to find some of the background, context, gossip - and fun - behind the political coverage you're reading in the newspaper. I'll tell you about what we're hearing behind the scenes and point out things you might be missing in front of the scenes. I'll be linking to other websites and blogs that may be creating political buzz too. The idea will be to make readers feel like they're taking a stroll down the Sparks Street mall in Ottawa, which is a little like Main street in the small town of Canada's capital.

We'll get this rolling in earnest tomorrow - budget day in Ottawa. Like most other reporters in the parliamentary press gallery, I'll be "locked up" at the drafty old railway station known as the Government Conference Centre. We get a chance to read the budget and buy $20 snacks from around 9:30 until 4 p.m., on the condition that we stay incommunicado until Finance Minister James Flaherty gets up to read the budget speech -  and I'll be live blogging here as he delivers the details.

And that's just the opening act - the big story tomorrow will be the Liberals' reaction and whether this budget triggers the collapse of Prime Minister Stephen Harper's minority government.