Fathers and sons

Last night, as he was delivering his victory speech in Toronto Centre, Bob Rae attempted to tell a story about his father, Saul. He choked up and couldn't get the story out. It was an incredibly affecting moment. It started me thinking of other times when politicians have tried to speak publicly of their fathers and found words failing them.

* Paul Martin, holding his first press conference as Prime Minister in December, 2003, started to tell journalists about the flag he carried into work to mark his debut day in office. It was the flag that flew at half-mast on Parliament Hill the day his dad, Paul Martin Sr., died. Martin started to explain the significance and seemed to be surprised himself, as he choked up and couldn't finish.

* Former prime minister Brian Mulroney went back to his home riding of Baie Comeau after he announced his resignation in 1993. He started to talk of his late father, Ben, and broke down in tears. He explained later to journalists what set him off: "I was born 500 yards from here... My father died 200 yards from here. He lived his whole life down the street, so I suppose what you really see is the coming together, almost like a film, of your life, your childhood."

* Even Stephen Harper, the current prime minister, not known for public displays of emotion, has publicly acknowledged his disappointment that his dad, Joseph - who he calls "the most important man in my life" - did not live long enough to see him become prime minister. (He died in 2003.)

Harper once introduced me to his father, at an old Reform Party convention in Ottawa, back in the 1990s. What I remember about that brief meeting is that the two were obviously very proud of each other.

Maybe it's overly sentimental, but I think politics is better for these moments. And I'd like to hear the end of the story Rae began last night.

Election Prediction Project weighs in

The Election Prediction Project, which had been describing two of today's by-elections as too close to call, has finally weighed in with forecasts. It says the Conservatives will win Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River while the Liberals will win Vancouver Quadra.

Toronto Centre and Willowdale are still forecast to go to the Liberals.

The site, which relies on intelligence from folks on the ground in the ridings, was 90 per cent correct in its predictions for the 2006 election.

Greens may have NDP shedding tears in their beers

It seems kind of a lame pun - which means it'll probably be everywhere - but when the results start pouring out tonight in the St. Patrick's Day by-elections, watch for the Greens.

Specifically, watch for any ridings where the Greens come in ahead of the New Democrats, notably in Ontario.

Late last year and early this year, Decima was tracking significant strength for the Greens in a perhaps surprising place - the so-called 905 suburban belt around Toronto.

It's also worth remembering that the Greens culled 8 per cent of the popular vote in the recent Ontario election and that Elizabeth May, the federal Greens leader, placed second in the London North Centre by-election in 2006.

If they do well in Ontario again tonight, what we have here is a trend, and given that the Greens tend to take support from every party, it makes them a bit of a wild card in any future general election. And the NDP should be worried.

The Green Party has been conducting its own polling in a few of the ridings holding by-elections tonight. These polls, conducted by phone from March 8-10, show that voters may be thinking of doing a little wearing of the Greens on St. Patrick's Day.

Here are the results of the Willowdale phone poll (761 voters):

36.8% Liberal Party
15.6% Conservative Party
12.0% Green Party
6.6% New Democratic Party
29.0% Undecided

And here are the results of the phone poll in Quadra (648 voters):

24.5% Liberal Party
18.8% Green Party
17.1% Conservative Party
13.3% New Democratic Party
26.2% undecided

Liberals' Cadman fixation

Some random observations from watching things in the Commons this afternoon, which is the last real chance to see the tension in earnest for the next couple of weeks. Fridays are kind of a fake days in the chamber and tomorrow Stéphane Dion will be in Vancouver. So this was the last chance to get a sense of tone and political dynamics before Parliament goes on a two-week break.

Independent MP Chuck Cadman voted with the Liberals during a budget confidence vote in the Commons on May 19, 2005.

Many of us have been wondering why the Liberals keep hammering away at the Chuck Cadman story every day in the House. That's the story — for those who've been away — that Conservatives allegedly offered the dying, independent MP a $1 million life-insurance policy in exchange for his vote in May, 2005.

It's an important story, to be sure, but there are other issues out there, not the least of which is the whole question of whether the government interfered in the U.S. elections, which even Harper agreed last week was a better story.

I've come up with three reasons for the Liberal fixation:

1. To prove they're not scared of this libel threat. Harper did formally launch the legal case today against the Liberals for alleging he took part in a bribe. He's suing the party for a whopping $2.5 million but he's not pursuing individual cases he threatened against Dion, Deputy Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff and Opposition House leader Ralph Goodale.

Harper said repeatedly that his family has been hurt by all this. Why does that sound strange?

2. Because they think there's something there — I got that from a Liberal official today when I asked. In other words, the simplest explanation is usually the right one.

3. And then, maybe quite significantly, there are the by-elections on Monday. The Liberals aren't worried about the two Toronto by-elections, but the ones in Saskatchewan and Vancouver are worrisome for them. There's a fantastic site, called the Elections Prediction Project, which deems those two by-elections too close to call for Monday.

And where was Cadman from? Yes, Vancouver. And where will Dion be tomorrow? Yes, Vancouver.

MPs in testy mood

It may not be a record by any means, but there sure were a lot of points of order after Question Period in the House today. That's the space in the parliamentary day when MPs can complain about insults and slurs levelled against them. It seemed that everyone was aggrieved, and many MPs were angry. Not just theatrical angry, but really angry.

Defence Minister Peter MacKay, with his typical sensitivity, called it "crybaby day" in the Commons.

 

McTeague takes defeat in stride

Liberal MP Dan McTeague didn't seem too upset that his private member's bill, making RESP contributions tax-deductible, died in a Ways and Means vote Thursday afternoon.

In fact, there he was, over by the Speaker's chair, talking intensely to Foreign Affairs Minister Maxime Bernier. All McTeague will say at this point is that he was talking about Brenda Martin, that Canadian citizen trapped in the Mexico prison — the one who got a visit yesterday from former prime minister Paul Martin.

It's worth noting that Bernier is now on the case and Helena Guergis, the secretary of state for foreign affairs, is off it. From my conversations with Brenda Martin's mother and friends yesterday, that's a welcome development.

Singing their love for the Liberals

The Bible All-Stars sound a bit more like an act you'd hear at a Republican convention, but in fact, this alternative-country band, based in Ottawa, have a soft spot for the Liberals.

In fact, they've written a jaunty tribute to the party and Stephane Dion, with a few digs at Stephen Harper thrown into the mix (here song).

Here are the lyrics, for those who may be working in an office where it isn't politically correct to have this blaring from the computer speakers.

Let' s go,  let ' s go Liberal

You know they have a plan

Let's go let's go Liberal

Get behind Stephane 

Mister Pearson got a Peace Prize

Cos' he put the world at ease

In '66 he gave us health care

And thanks to him the Maple Leaf

Pierre Trudeau shared his vision

And he gave us Charter rights

Jean Chretien said "no" to Iraq

There ain 't no weapons so we won 't fight

With the deficit long defeated

Paul Martin turned to child care

He led the way down in Kelowna

And he almost got us there

[Chorus] 

We cried when Steve came to power

He ain't a friend of mine

Right away he went and killed Kelowna

And Kyoto wasn't far behind

No real child care program

Steve has the poor to blame

If you disagree with Mr. Harper

He'll give y'all some of the same

Stephane Dion is moving forward

For a greener, more stronger land

He stands on the shoulders of giants

Uncle Louie and  Lester B Pearson   ....

[Chorus]

The little blue dirty tricks manual

Liberal MP Dominic LeBlanc says it’s right out of the Conservative "dirty tricks manual for its committee chairs . . .,” . . . “if necessary, storm out of meetings to grind parliamentary business to a halt.’"

For the second day in a row, Conservative MP Art Hanger, chair of the justice committee, walked out after refusing to entertain a motion that would have the committee investigate the Charles Cadman affair.

"The Prime Minister is so determined to duck any questions about what financial inducements they offered Chuck Cadman, his flunkies even forced the respected chair of the justice committee to abandon the chair," LeBlanc told the House of Commons.

LeBlanc says it is the adult equivalent of pulling the fire alarm to get out of a examination.

Hanger told the Toronto Star he would not a party to a political "Gong Show," accusing the Liberals and Bloc Quebecois of attempting to derail the work of the committee, which he insists is no place for the Cadman affair to be probed.

"I will not let that matter come before the committee," he said, adding that he would not be resigning.

Hanger suggested the matter go the committee on procedure and house affairs, which, however, has been hijacked by the Conservatives for several months now by filibuster to prevent it from investigating questionable spending by the Tories in the 2006 election

The justice committee is expected to resume tomorrow, beginning with a motion to remove Hanger as chair.

Painting the country Tory Blue

So just what is the Conservative vision for the country? Liberals and New Democrats keep describing it as scary, while some conservative commentators say that Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s prime concern right now should be victory, not vision.

Gerry Nicholls used to work with Stephen Harper at the National Citizens’ Coalition back in the late 1990s. Occasionally, when I’d meet Harper for coffee or lunch in Toronto, Nicholls would come along too. But Nicholls is no longer at the NCC – he was ejected over a year ago in the wake of his public declarations of how Harper, the Prime Minister, wasn’t being Conservative enough.

Today, Nicholls has released a political tract on how to make the conservative movement – as opposed to the Conservative party, which is bugging him – the dominant force in the country. It’s called: The Trudeau Empire Has Fallen and it Can’t Get Up: Why now is the time for the Canadian conservative movement to win the war of ideas.

There’s lots in here. Plenty of it is provocative – Nicholls calls global-warming worries "hysteria" and he comes out swinging against unions, the CBC, the CRTC and Quebec language laws.

But it is a vivid picture of what a Conservative country would look like, in Nicholls’ view. It is a far more vivid picture than the one painted in another must-read – Tom Flanagan’s book, Harper’s Team, which has become kind of a reference tool on my desk.

Nicholls and Flanagan have actually debated publicly on how best to paint Canada Conservative blue.

Flanagan’s a go-slow, transformation-by-stealth fan, while Nicholls thinks Conservatives should just pursue their agenda with full enthusiasm, a la Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s.

Clearly Harper seems to favour the Flanagan approach, but it’s worth reading Nicholls’ tract to see what would happen if Canada decidedly to go conservative in a hurry.

Dion gets an earful on Facebook

Helene Buzzetti of Le Devoir has an interesting little story today - Liberal leader Stephane Dion is facing demands on Facebook to stop propping up Prime Minister Stephen Harper's government.

"With friends like this, who needs enemies?" Buzzetti writes.

Indeed. Here's just a sampling from Dion's "wall" - the place on Facebook where people can write public comments:

"I'm a huge supporter of you, but I think that you're not taking the oppourtunity to slam the Conservatives on their scandal problems. Please call an election after the 4 by-elections," writes high-school student John Zaloznik.

Sarah Mann, a university student in Victoria, is annoyed that Liberals also helped pass the private member's bill re: rights of the unborn. (See blog posting from last week and Antonia's column.) "It is an embarassing week to be a Liberal party supporter and a dismal week for a feminist," Mann writes.

If you want to see Dion's Facebook page for yourself, you can go here.

A warning, though - you may have to sign up as a "supporter" to view it.