By their vote share, let them be judged. In a previous post, I laid out where the share of the vote went in the 2008 election and how we should look at the by-election results on Monday. So here's how it looks; putting the previous, 2008 results against what we're seeing in the returns as of around midnight. In short, good news for Conservatives and the NDP, not so good for the Liberals or the Bloc.
New Westminster-Coquitlam:
NDP: 41.6 per cent
Conservatives: 38 per cent
Liberals: 11 per cent.
Question: If the NDP wins by a bigger margin (as they expect), it's at whose expense?
Answer: The New Democrats did indeed increase their vote share, up to over 50 per cent, and it all seemed to come at the expense of the Conservatives; slightly at the expense of Liberals too.
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Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley
Independent: 68 per cent
New Democrats: 12 per cent
Conservatives: 8.7 per cent
Liberals: 8.4 per cent.
Question: A simple one...Bill Casey's 68 per cent has to go somewhere. Who gets it?
Answer: The Conservatives got nearly 46 per cent; the New Democrats held on to second place, more than doubling their share of the vote and the Liberals climbed 12 percentage points at third place. This is the only riding where Liberals made gains, but increasing the third-place showing is not really great news for Ignatieff.
Hochelaga
BQ: 49 per cent
Liberals: 20 per cent
NDP: 14 per cent
Conservatives: 9 per cent
Question: If the Liberals slip into third place, who gets to be second?
Answer: The New Democrats get to be second and the results show an almost exact switching of places between the Liberals and the NDP. That's clear enough.
Montmagny-L'Islet-Kamouraska-Riviere-du-Loup
BQ: 45 per cent
Conservatives: 30 per cent
Liberals: 15 per cent
NDP: 5.3 per cent
Question: The Conservatives presumably want to keep second place, at the least, so will it be a strong second, or will Liberals/NDP chip away at it?
Answer: Big surprise of the night -- the Conservatives won it. The Bloc is second, and neither the Liberals nor the NDP are players here.
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